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Waterfowl and wetland birds

The future of wetland bird habitat and populations is intrinsically connected with the conservation of rangelands in North America. Many rangeland watersheds are source drainage for some of the highest functioning extant wetlands. The Central and Pacific Flyways have significant overlap with available rangelands in western North America. Within these flyways, the importance of rangeland management has become increasingly recognized by those involved in wetland bird conservation. Within the array of wetland bird species, seasonal habitat needs are highly variable. During the breeding period, nest survival is one of the most important drivers of population growth for many wetland bird species and rangelands often provide quality nesting cover. Throughout spring and fall, rangeland wetlands provide key forage resources that support energetic demands needed for migration. In some areas, stock ponds developed for livestock water provide migration stopover and wintering habitat, especially in times of water scarcity. In the Intermountain West, drought combined with water demands from agriculture and human population growth are likely headed to an ecological tipping point for wetland birds and their habitat in the region. In the Prairie Pothole Region, conversion of rangeland and draining of wetlands for increased crop production remains a significant conservation issue for wetland birds and other wildlife. In landscapes dominated by agricultural production, rangelands provide some of the highest value ecosystem services, including water quality and wetland function. Recent research has shown livestock grazing, if managed properly, is compatible and at times beneficial to wetland bird habitat needs. Either directly, or indirectly, wetland bird populations and their habitat needs are supported by healthy rangelands. In the future, rangeland and wetland bird managers will benefit from increased collaboration to aid in meeting ultimate conservation objectives.

Book chapter

Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival ( n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

Ibis

Beak deformities in Northwestern Crows: Evidence of a multispecies epizootic

Beak abnormalities are rare among adult birds and, typically, are not widespread in a given population, within a region, or across multiple species. A high concentration of beak deformities was recently documented in Black-capped Chickadees ( Poecile atricapillus ) and other resident avian species in Alaska. We describe a parallel condition in Northwestern Crows ( Corvus caurinus ) that signals the emergence of a multispecies epizootic. On the basis of 186 Northwestern Crows captured at six sites in Alaska during 2007 and 2008, we estimated the prevalence of beak deformities in adults to be 16.9 ± 5.3%, the highest rate of gross deformities ever recorded in a wild bird population. Prevalence varied among sites and was as high as 36% on the Kenai Peninsula, which suggests possible epizootic clusters. We also documented beak abnormalities in an additional 148 Northwestern Crows in south-central and southeastern Alaska and in 64 crows near Vancouver, British Columbia, and Puget Sound, Washington, a region where both Northwestern Crows and American Crows ( C. brachyrhynchos ) occur. The increase in frequency and distribution of crows observed with abnormal beaks throughout the Pacific Northwest since the late 1990s indicates a geographic expansion of this problem. Affected crows exhibited elongated and often crossed beaks that were morphologically similar to deformities documented in Black-capped Chickadees and other species in Alaska over approximately the same period. Additional research is needed to determine the etiology and potential adverse effects on bird populations affected by this disorder.

Alaska, British Columbia, Washington

Vulnerability of avian populations to renewable energy production

Renewable energy production can kill individual birds, but little is known about how it affects avian populations. We assessed the vulnerability of populations for 23 priority bird species killed at wind and solar facilities in California, USA. Bayesian hierarchical models suggested that 48% of these species were vulnerable to population-level effects from added fatalities caused by renewables and other sources. Effects of renewables extended far beyond the location of energy production to impact bird populations in distant regions across continental migration networks. Populations of species associated with grasslands where turbines were located were most vulnerable to wind. Populations of nocturnal migrant species were most vulnerable to solar, despite not typically being associated with deserts where the solar facilities we evaluated were located. Our findings indicate that addressing declines of North American bird populations requires consideration of the effects of renewables and other anthropogenic threats on both nearby and distant populations of vulnerable species.

California

Regional analysis of population trajectories from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was started in 1966, and provides information on population change and distribution for most of the birds in North America. The geographic extent of the survey, and the logistical compromises needed to survey such a large area, present many challenges for estimation from BBS data. In this paper, we describe the survey and discuss some of the limitations of the survey design and implementation. Analysis of the survey has evolved over time as new statistical methods and insights into the analysis of count data are developed. Survey results and analysis tools for the BBS are now available over intemet; we present new methods that use generalized linear models for estimation of population change and empirical Bayes procedures for regional summaries.

Book chapter

Management of northern prairies and wetlands for the conservation of neotropical migratory birds

Grasslands and wetlands of the northern prairies provide important breeding habitat for a number of birds. Deciding which species deserve most attention in managing those habitats depends, in part, on the importance of the area to the species. Many species in northern prairies are more common elsewhere and need no special consideration in that area. Several species, however, are critically dependent on the prairies. These species merit particular attention if protection of biodiversity is a goal. Both grasslands and wetlands in the northern prairies have been extensively converted for agricultural use, which has reduced the value of these habitats for breeding birds. Most land-use changes took place before monitoring programs for birds began, so quantitative assessments of changes in avian populations are lacking. This paper discusses the status of bird populations in the northern prairies, key upland and wetland habitats, effects of common management practices, and issues that specifically result from a landscape perspective. Most management practices are employed for other objectives; consequences to nongame birds are incidental, but vitally important to some species.

General Technical Report

Collision and displacement vulnerability among marine birds of the California Current System associated with offshore wind energy infrastructure

With growing climate change concerns and energy constraints, there is an increasing need for renewable energy sources within the United States and globally. Looking forward, offshore wind-energy infrastructure (OWEI) has the potential to produce a significant proportion of the power needed to reach our Nation’s renewable energy goal. Offshore wind-energy sites can capitalize open areas within Federal waters that have persistent, high winds with large energy production potential. Although there are few locations in the California Current System (CCS) where it would be acceptable to build pile-mounted wind turbines in waters less than 50 m deep, the development of technology able to support deep-water OWEI (>200 m depth) could enable wind-energy production in the CCS. As with all human-use of the marine environment, understanding the potential impacts of wind-energy infrastructure on the marine ecosystem is an integral part of offshore wind-energy research and planning. Herein, we present a comprehensive database to quantify marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the CCS (see https://doi.org/10.5066/F79C6VJ0 ). These data were used to quantify marine bird vulnerabilities at the population level. For 81 marine bird species present in the CCS, we created three vulnerability indices: Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability. Population Vulnerability was used as a scaling factor to generate two comprehensive indicies: Population Collision Vulnerability (PCV) and Population Displacement Vulnerability (PDV). Within the CCS, pelicans, terns (Forster’s [ Sterna forsteri ], Caspian [ Hydroprogne caspia ], Elegant [ Thalasseus elegans ], and Least Tern [ Sternula antillarum ]), gulls (Western [ Larus occidentalis ] and Bonaparte’s Gull [ Chroicocephalus philadelphia ]), South Polar Skua ( Stercorarius maccormicki ), and Brandt’s Cormorant ( Phalacrocorax penicillatus ) had the greatest PCV scores. Brown Pelican ( Pelicanus occidentalis ) had the greatest overall PCV score. Some alcids (Scripps’s Murrelet [ Synthliboramphus scrippsi ], Marbled Murrelet [ Brachyramphus marmoratus ], and Tufted Puffin [ Fratercula cirrhata ]), terns (Elegant and Least Lern), and loons (Yellow-billed [ Gavia adamsii ] and Common Loon [ G. immer ]) had the greatest PDV scores. Ashy Storm-Petrel ( Oceanodroma homochroa ) had the greatest overall PDV score. To help inform decisions that will impact seabird conservation, vulnerability assessment results can now be combined with recent marine bird at-sea distribution and abundance data for the CCS to evaluate vulnerability areas where OWEI development is being considered. Lastly, it is important to note that as new information about seabird behavior and populations in the CCS becomes available, this database can be easily updated and modified.

Open-File Report

Northern bobwhite, gray partridge, and ring-necked pheasant population trends (1966-1988) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

We use North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population trends for 1966-1988 for northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus), and gray partridge (Perdix perdix). Bobwhite populations have undergone widespread declines, pheasant have undergone major declines in eastern North America with mixed trends elsewhere, gray partridge have undergone primarily population increases. We present suggestions for further uses of these data.

Book chapter

Population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

INTRODUCTION: Most Neotropical migrant birds are difficult to count accurately and are moderately common over large breeding distributions. Consequently, little historical information exists on their large-scale population changes, and most of this information is anecdotal. Surveys begun in this century such as Breeding Bird Censuses and Christmas Bird Counts have the potential to provide this information, but only the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) achieves the extensive continental coverage necessary to document population changes for most Neotropical migrant birds. Conservationists and ecologists have begun to use BBS data to estimate population trends, but there is still widespread confusion over exactly what these data show regarding population changes. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge regarding population changes in Neotropical migrant birds and the methods used to analyze these changes. The primary emphasis is on the BBS (Robbins et al. 1986) because this survey provides the best available data for estimating trends of Neotropical migrants on a continental scale. To address questions about methods of analyzing survey data, we review and compare some alternative methods of analyzing BBS data. We also discuss the effectiveness of the BBS in sampling Neotropical migrant species, and review possibilities for use of alternative data sets to verify trends from the BBS.

Book chapter

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black—capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958—1983 using capture—recapture methods. The Jolly—Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was °160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was °57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was °0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear—cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short—term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear—cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear—cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

Ecology

Wood duck population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been conducted yearly since 1966, and can be used to describe relative population density and trends of birds in North America north of Mexico. Wood ducks (Air sponsa) are difficult to survey using conventional waterfowl monitoring techniques, but a large portion of their range is surveyed by the BBS. Wood ducks are detected at low densities on many BBS routes, and population trends can be estimated for most regions. Populations have been increasing throughout North America since 1966, but statistically significant increases generally occurred only in the early (1966-78) part of the period. Roadside survey methodology used in the BBS has limitations that make it inefficient as a survey technique for wood ducks, and we recommend using modified methodologies that specifically survey wood duck habitat.

Book chapter

Variation in survivorship of a migratory songbird throughout its annual cycle

1. Demographic data from both breeding and non-breeding periods are needed to manage populations of migratory birds, many of which are declining in abundance and are of conservation concern. Although habitat associations, and to a lesser extent, reproductive biology, are known for many migratory species, few studies have measured survival rates of these birds at different parts of their annual cycle. 2. Cormack–Jolly–Seber models and Akaike’s information criterion model selection were used to investigate seasonal variation in survival of a Nearctic – Neotropical migrant songbird, the black-throated blue warbler, Dendroica caerulescens . Seasonal and annual survival were estimated from resightings of colour-ringed individuals on breeding grounds in New Hampshire, USA from 1986 to 2000 and on winter quarters in Jamaica, West Indies from 1986 to 1999. Warblers were studied each year during the May–August breeding period in New Hampshire and during the October–March overwinter period in Jamaica. 3. In New Hampshire, males had higher annual survival (0·51 ± 0·03) and recapture probabilities (0·93 ± 0·03) than did females (survival: 0·40 ± 0·04; recapture: 0·87 ± 0·06). In Jamaica, annual survival (0·43 ± 0·03) and recapture (0·95 ± 0·04) probabilities did not differ between sexes. Annual survival and recapture probabilities of young birds (i.e. yearlings in New Hampshire and hatch-year birds in Jamaica) did not differ from adults, indicating that from the time hatch-year individuals acquire territories on winter quarters in mid-October, they survive as well as adults within the same habitat. 4. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer (May–August) and winter (October–March) stationary periods were high: 1·0 for males in New Hampshire, and 0·99 ± 0·01 for males in Jamaica and for females in both locations. 5. These annual and seasonal survival estimates were used to calculate warbler survival for the migratory periods. Monthly survival probability during migration ranged from 0·77 to 0·81 ± 0·02. Thus, apparent mortality rates were at least 15 times higher during migration compared to that in the stationary periods, and more than 85% of apparent annual mortality of D. caerulescens occurred during migration. 6. Additional data from multiple species, especially measures of habitat-specific demography and dispersal, will improve our understanding of the relative impacts of the breeding, migratory, and winter periods on population dynamics of migratory birds and thus enhance future conservation efforts.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds

Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher F ST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π Z / π A ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N eZ / N eA in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

Heredity

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21 st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi ( Drepanis coccinea ) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

PLoS ONE

Altitudinal migration and the future of an iconic Hawaiian honeycreeper in response to climate change and management

Altitudinal movement by tropical birds to track seasonally variable resources can move them from protected areas to areas of increased vulnerability. In Hawaiʻi, historical reports suggest that many Hawaiian honeycreepers such as the ‘I‘iwi ( Drepanis coccinea ) once undertook seasonal migrations, but the existence of such movements today is unclear. Because Hawaiian honeycreepers are highly susceptible to avian malaria, currently minimal in high-elevation forests, understanding the degree to which honeycreepers visit lower elevation forests may be critical to predict the current impact of malaria on population dynamics and how susceptible bird populations may respond to climate change and mitigation scenarios. Using radio telemetry data, we demonstrate for the first time that a large fraction of breeding adult and juvenile ‘I‘iwi originating from an upper-elevation (1,920 m) population at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge exhibit post-breeding movements well below the upper elevational limit for mosquitoes. Bloom data suggest seasonal variation in floral resources is the primary driver of seasonal movement for ‘I‘iwi. To understand the demographic implications of such movement, we developed a spatial individual-based model calibrated using previously published and original data. ʻI‘iwi dynamics were simulated backward in time, to estimate population levels in the absence of avian malaria, and forward in time, to assess the impact of climate warming as well as two potential mitigation actions. Even in disease-free ‘refuge’ populations, we found that breeding densities failed to reach the estimated carrying capacity, suggesting the existence of a seasonal “migration load” as a result of travel to disease-prevalent areas. We predict that ‘I‘iwi may be on the verge of extinction in 2100, with the total number of pairs reaching only ~ 0.2–12.3% of the estimated pre-malaria density, based on an optimistic climate change scenario. The probability of extinction of ‘I‘iwi populations, as measured by population estimates for 2100, is strongly related to their estimated migration propensity. Long-term conservation strategies likely will require a multi-pronged response including a reduction of malaria threats, habitat restoration and continued landscape-level access to seasonally variable nectar resources.

Ecological Monographs

Analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models

We analyzed population change for 420 bird species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the results with those obtained through route-regression analysis. Survey-wide trend estimates based on the hierarchical model were generally more precise than estimates from the earlier analysis. No consistent pattern of differences existed in the magnitude of trends between the analysis methods. Survey-wide trend estimates changed substantially for 15 species between route-regression and hierarchical-model analyses. We compared regional estimates for states, provinces, and Bird Conservation Regions; differences observed in these regional analyses are likely a consequence of the route-regression procedure's inadequate accommodation of temporal differences in survey effort. We used species-specific hierarchical-model results to estimate composite change for groups of birds associated with major habitats and migration types. Grassland, aridland, and eastern-forest-obligate bird species declined, whereas urban—suburban species increased over the interval 1968–2008. No migration status group experienced significant changes, although Nearctic—Neotropical migrant species showed intervals of decline and permanent resident species increased almost 20% during the interval. Hierarchical-model results better portrayed patterns of population change over time than route-regression results. We recommend use of hierarchical models for BBS analyses.

North America

Population structure of red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) in south Florida: RAPDs revisited

Six south Florida populations of the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) were sampled to examine genetic diversity and population structure in the southernmost portion of the species' range relative to 14 previously sampled populations from throughout the species range. Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analyses were used to evaluate the populations ( n = 161 individuals, 13 primers, one band/primer). Results suggested that south Florida populations have significant among-population genetic differentiation ( F ST = 0.17, P < 0.000), although gene flow may be adequate to offset drift ( N m = 1.26). Comparison of Florida populations with others sampled indicated differentiation was less in Florida ( F ST for all populations = 0.21). Cluster analyses of all 20 populations did not reflect complete geographical predictions, although clustering of distant populations resulted in a significant correlation between genetic distance and geographical distance. Overall, results suggest populations in south Florida, similar to the remainder of the species, have low genetic diversity and high population fragmentation. Exact clustering of distant populations supports the ability of RAPDs to differentiate populations accurately. Our results further support past management recommendations that translocations of birds among geographically proximate populations is preferable to movement of birds between distant populations.

Florida

Early season tropical cyclones affect birds breeding on a barrier island

Animal populations often experience acute natural disturbances, most of which are connected to short—term weather events. Occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones during the peak of the avian breeding season are likely to increase with climate change, which can substantially impact populations of coastal breeding birds at multiple scales. To understand the acute impacts of severe tropical cyclones, we investigated how abundances of breeding birds changed before and after 4 early season named tropical cyclones on a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico. We detected a change in pre— versus post—storm numbers of breeding birds after 2 out of 4 storms between 2015–2020. Following Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Barry, significant declines in breeding adults ranged from a reduction of 32 Willets ( Tringa semipalmata ) to 105 Wilson’s Plover ( Anarhynchus wilsoni a) and 18 Willets to 1,794 Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ), respectively. The lack of response following 2 storms was likely due to the location of the storms relative to the island. Following the 2 storms that did elicit a response by breeding birds, we observed lower abundances in the majority of species after the storm passed. Species life histories and habitat restoration might explain the species—specific responses we observed. Our study documents occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones negatively affecting coastal breeding birds, which could be exacerbated with sea level rise. Additionally, our findings may provide insights regarding island design and nest susceptibility to flooding events, which may aid land managers as well as conservation and restoration planners.

Louisiana