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EAARL-B submerged topography: Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, post-Hurricane Sandy, 2012-2013

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived submerged topography datasets were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, Florida. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets for part of Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, acquired post-Hurricane Sandy on November 1, 5, 16, 20, and 30, 2012; December 5, 6, and 21, 2012; and January 10, 2013. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar system, known as the second-generation Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL-B), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL-B system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nm) lidar designed to map nearshore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL-B sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) and infrared (IR) digital cameras, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL-B platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL-B system. The resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed originally in a NASA-USGS collaboration. The exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode is supported using ALPS. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. The Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS) is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the "bare earth" under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Lidar for Science and Resource Management Web site .

New Jersey

EAARL-B coastal topography: Fire Island, New York, pre-Hurricane Sandy, 2012: seamless (bare earth and submerged)

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived seamless (bare-earth and submerged) topography datasets were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, Florida. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets for part of Fire Island, New York, acquired pre-Hurricane Sandy on October 27, 2012. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar, known as the second-generation Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL-B), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL-B system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nm) lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL-B sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) and infrared (IR) digital cameras, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL-B platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL-B system. The resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed originally in a NASA-USGS collaboration. The exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode is supported using ALPS. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. The Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS) is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the "bare earth" under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Lidar for Science and Resource Management Web site.

New York

Local-area-enhanced, 2.5-meter resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of the Parwan mineral district in Afghanistan: Chapter CC in Local-area-enhanced, high-resolution natural-color and color-infrared satellite-image mosaics of mineral districts in Afghanistan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, prepared databases for mineral-resource target areas in Afghanistan. The purpose of the databases is to (1) provide useful data to ground-survey crews for use in performing detailed assessments of the areas and (2) provide useful information to private investors who are considering investment in a particular area for development of its natural resources. The set of satellite-image mosaics provided in this Data Series (DS) is one such database. Although airborne digital color-infrared imagery was acquired for parts of Afghanistan in 2006, the image data have radiometric variations that preclude their use in creating a consistent image mosaic for geologic analysis. Consequently, image mosaics were created using ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite; renamed Daichi) satellite images, whose radiometry has been well determined (Saunier, 2007a,b). This part of the DS consists of the locally enhanced ALOS image mosaics for the Parwan mineral district, which has gold and copper deposits. ALOS was launched on January 24, 2006, and provides multispectral images from the AVNIR (Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Radiometer) sensor in blue (420–500 nanometer, nm), green (520–600 nm), red (610–690 nm), and near-infrared (760–890 nm) wavelength bands with an 8-bit dynamic range and a 10-meter (m) ground resolution. The satellite also provides a panchromatic band image from the PRISM (Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping) sensor (520–770 nm) with the same dynamic range but a 2.5-m ground resolution. The image products in this DS incorporate copyrighted data provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (©JAXA,2006, 2007), but the image processing has altered the original pixel structure and all image values of the JAXA ALOS data, such that original image values cannot be recreated from this DS. As such, the DS products match JAXA criteria for value added products, which are not copyrighted, according to the ALOS end-user license agreement. elevation angles (near summer solstice) and (2) the least cloud, cloud-shadow, and snow cover. The multispectral and panchromatic data were orthorectified with ALOS satellite ephemeris data, a process which is not as accurate as orthorectification using digital elevation models (DEMs); however, the ALOS processing center did not have a precise DEM. As a result, the multispectral and panchromatic image pairs were generally not well registered to the surface and not coregistered well enough to perform resolution enhancement on the multispectral data. Therefore, it was necessary to (1) register the 10-m AVNIR multispectral imagery to a well-controlled Landsat image base, (2) mosaic the individual multispectral images into a single image of the entire area of interest, (3) register each panchromatic image to the registered multispectral image base, and (4) mosaic the individual panchromatic images into a single image of the entire area of interest. The two image-registration steps were facilitated using an automated control-point algorithm developed by the USGS that allows image coregistration to within one picture element. Before rectification, the multispectral and panchromatic images were converted to radiance values and then to relative-reflectance values using the methods described in Davis (2006). Mosaicking the multispectral or panchromatic images started with the image with the highest sun-elevation angle and the least atmospheric scattering, which was treated as the standard image. The band-reflectance values of all other multispectral or panchromatic images within the area were sequentially adjusted to that of the standard image by determining band-reflectance correspondence between overlapping images using linear least-squares analysis. The resolution of the multispectral image mosaic was then increased to that of the panchromatic image mosaic using the SPARKLE logic, which is described in Davis (2006). Each of the four-band images within the resolution-enhanced image mosaic was individually subjected to a local-area histogram stretch algorithm (described in Davis, 2007), which stretches each band’s picture element based on the digital values of all picture elements within a 500-m radius. The final databases, which are provided in this DS, are three-band, color-composite images of the local-area-enhanced, natural-color data (the blue, green, and red wavelength bands) and color-infrared data (the green, red, and near-infrared wavelength bands). All image data were initially projected and maintained in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) map projection using the target area’s local zone (42 for Parwan) and the WGS84 datum. The final image mosaics were subdivided into two overlapping tiles or quadrants because of the large size of the target area. The two image tiles (or quadrants) for the North Bamyan area are provided as embedded geotiff images, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image.

Parwan Mineral District

Comparison of the South Florida natural system model with pre-canal Everglades hydrology estimated from historical sources

Preservation and restoration of the remaining Everglades ecosystem is focussed on two aspects: improving upstream water quality and improving 'hydropatterns' - the timing, depth and flow of surface water. Restoration of hydropatterns requires knowledge of the original pre-canal drainage conditions as well as an understanding of the soil, topo-graphic, and vegetation changes that have taken place since canal drainage began in the 1880's. The Natural System Model (NSM), developed by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and Everglades National Park, uses estimates of pre-drainage vegetation and topography to estimate the pre-drainage hydrologic response of the Everglades. Sources of model uncertainty include: (1) the algorithms, (2) the parameters (particularly those relating to vegetation roughness and evapotranspiration), and (3) errors in the assumed pre-drainage vegetation distribution and pre-drainage topography. Other studies are concentrating on algorithmic and parameter sources of uncertainty. In this study we focus on the NSM output -- predicted hydropattern -- and evaluate this by comparison with all available direct and indirect information on pre-drainage hydropatterns. The unpublished and published literature is being searched exhaustively for observations of water depth, flow direction, flow velocity and hydroperiod, during the period prior and just after drainage (1840-1920). Additionally, a comprehensive map of soils in the Everglades region, prepared in the 1940's by personnel from the University of Florida Agricultural Experiment Station, the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Everglades Drainage District, is being used to identify wetland soils and to infer the spatial distribution of pre-drainage hydrologic conditions. Detailed study of this map and other early soil and vegetation maps in light of the history of drainage activities will reveal patterns of change and possible errors in the input to the NSM. Changes in the wetland soils are important because of their effects on topography (soil subsidence) and in their role as indicators of hydropattern.

Florida

The inverse of winnowing: a FORTRAN subroutine and discussion of unwinnowing discrete data

This report describes an unwinnowing algorithm that utilizes a discrete Fourier transform, and a resulting Fortran subroutine that winnows or unwinnows a 1-dimensional stream of discrete data; the source code is included. The unwinnowing algorithm effectively increases (by integral factors) the number of available data points while maintaining the original frequency spectrum of a data stream. This has utility when an increased data density is required together with an availability of higher order derivatives that honor the original data.

Open-File Report

MODFLOW-2000, The U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model -- GMG Linear Equation Solver Package Documentation

A geometric multigrid solver (GMG), based in the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm, has been developed for solving systems of equations resulting from applying the cell-centered finite difference algorithm to flow in porous media. This solver has been adapted to the U.S. Geological Survey ground-water flow model MODFLOW-2000. The documentation herein is a description of the solver and the adaptation to MODFLOW-2000.

Open-File Report

Topogrid Derived 10 Meter Resolution Digital Elevation Model of the Shenandoah National Park and Surrounding Region, Virginia

Explanation The purpose of developing a new 10m resolution DEM of the Shenandoah National Park Region was to more accurately depict geologic structure, surfical geology, and landforms of the Shenandoah National Park Region in preparation for automated landform classification. Previously, only a 30m resolution DEM was available through the National Elevation Dataset (NED). During production of the Shenandoah10m DEM of the Park the Geography Discipline of the USGS completed a revised 10m DEM to be included into the NED. However, different methodologies were used to produce the two similar DEMs. The ANUDEM algorithm was used to develop the Shenadoah DEM data. This algorithm allows for the inclusion of contours, streams, rivers, lake and water body polygons as well as spot height data to control the elevation model. A statistical analysis using over 800 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) first and second order vertical control points reveals that the Shenandoah10m DEM, produced as a part of the Appalachian Blue Ridge Landscape project, has a vertical accuracy of ?4.87 meters. The metadata for the 10m NED data reports a vertical accuracy of ?7m. A table listing the NGS control points, the elevation comparison, and the RMSE for the Shenandoah10m DEM is provided. The process of automated terrain classification involves developing statistical signatures from the DEM for each type of surficial deposit and landform type. The signature will be a measure of several characteristics derived from the elevation data including slope, aspect, planform curvature, and profile curvature. The quality of the DEM is of critical importance when extracting terrain signatures. The highest possible horizontal and vertical accuracy is required. The more accurate Shenandoah 10m DEM can now be analyzed and integrated with the geologic observations to yield statistical correlations between the two in the development of landform and surface geology mapping projects.

Open-File Report

Evaluation of unsaturated-zone solute-transport models for studies of agricultural chemicals

Seven unsaturated-zone solute-transport models were tested with two data sets to select models for use by the Agricultural Chemical Team of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The data sets were from a bromide tracer test near Merced, California, and an atrazine study in the White River Basin, Indiana. In this study the models are designated either as complex or simple based on the water flux algorithm. The complex models, HYDRUS2D, LEACHP, RZWQM, and VS2DT, use Richards' equation to simulate water flux and are well suited to process understanding. The simple models, CALF, GLEAMS, and PRZM, use a tipping-bucket algorithm and are more amenable to extrapolation because they require fewer input parameters. The purpose of this report is not to endorse a particular model, but to describe useful features, potential capabilities, and possible limitations that emerged from working with the model input data sets. More rigorous assessment of model applicability involves proper calibration, which was beyond the scope of this study. Uncalibrated ("cold") simulations were run using all seven models to predict the transport of bromide (Merced) and the transport and fate of atrazine and three of its transformation products (White River Basin). Among the complex models, HYDRUS2D successfully predicted both the surface retention and accumulation of bromide at depth at the Merced site, whereas RZWQM and VS2DT predicted only the latter. RZWQM predictions of atrazine were closest to observed values at the White River Basin site, where preferential flow has been observed. LEACHP predicted smaller solute concentrations than observed at both the Merced and White River Basin sites. Among the simple models, CALF predicted the highest values of atrazine and deethylatrazine at the measurement depth of 1.5 meters. CALF includes the Addiscott flow option for preferential flow, and also accepts user-specified dispersivity. PRZM underpredicted solute concentrations, probably because control of dispersion is a problem with this model. GLEAMS has a maximum simulation depth of 1.5 meters, which is limiting for mass-balance purposes because it creates a potential disconnect between unsaturated-zone transport and the water table. Of the models tested, RZWQM, HYDRUS2D, VS2DT, GLEAMS and PRZM had graphical user interfaces. Extensive documentation was available for RZWQM, HYDRUS2D, and VS2DT. RZWQM can explicitly simulate water and solute flux in macropores, and both HYDRUS2D and VS2DT can simulate water and solute flux in two dimensions. The version of RZWQM tested had a maximum simulation depth of 3 meters. The complex models simulate the formation, transport, and fate of degradates of up to three to five compounds including the parent, with the exception of VS2DT, which simulates the transport and fate of a single compound.

California, Indiana

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Computer Resources for Machine Learning

Machine learning describes pattern-recognition algorithms - in this case, probabilistic neural networks (PNNs). These can be computationally intensive, in part because of the nonlinear optimizer, a numerical process that calibrates the PNN by minimizing a sum of squared errors. This report suggests efficiencies that are expressed as cost and benefit. The cost is computer time needed to calibrate the PNN, and the benefit is goodness-of-fit, how well the PNN learns the pattern in the data. There may be a point of diminishing returns where a further expenditure of computer resources does not produce additional benefits. Sampling is suggested as a cost-reduction strategy. One consideration is how many points to select for calibration and another is the geometric distribution of the points. The data points may be nonuniformly distributed across space, so that sampling at some locations provides additional benefit while sampling at other locations does not. A stratified sampling strategy can be designed to select more points in regions where they reduce the calibration error and fewer points in regions where they do not. Goodness-of-fit tests ensure that the sampling does not introduce bias. This approach is illustrated by statistical experiments for computing correlations between measures of roadless area and population density for the San Francisco Bay Area. The alternative to training efficiencies is to rely on high-performance computer systems. These may require specialized programming and algorithms that are optimized for parallel performance.

Open-File Report

Quantifying and Qualifying USGS ShakeMap Uncertainty

We describe algorithms for quantifying and qualifying uncertainties associated with USGS ShakeMap ground motions. The uncertainty values computed consist of latitude/longitude grid-based multiplicative factors that scale the standard deviation associated with the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) used within the ShakeMap algorithm for estimating ground motions. The resulting grid-based 'uncertainty map' is essential for evaluation of losses derived using ShakeMaps as the hazard input. For ShakeMap, ground motion uncertainty at any point is dominated by two main factors: (i) the influence of any proximal ground motion observations, and (ii) the uncertainty of estimating ground motions from the GMPE, most notably, elevated uncertainty due to initial, unconstrained source rupture geometry. The uncertainty is highest for larger magnitude earthquakes when source finiteness is not yet constrained and, hence, the distance to rupture is also uncertain. In addition to a spatially-dependant, quantitative assessment, many users may prefer a simple, qualitative grading for the entire ShakeMap. We developed a grading scale that allows one to quickly gauge the appropriate level of confidence when using rapidly produced ShakeMaps as part of the post-earthquake decision-making process or for qualitative assessments of archived or historical earthquake ShakeMaps. We describe an uncertainty letter grading ('A' through 'F', for high to poor quality, respectively) based on the uncertainty map. A middle-range ('C') grade corresponds to a ShakeMap for a moderate-magnitude earthquake suitably represented with a point-source location. Lower grades 'D' and 'F' are assigned for larger events (M>6) where finite-source dimensions are not yet constrained. The addition of ground motion observations (or observed macroseismic intensities) reduces uncertainties over data-constrained portions of the map. Higher grades ('A' and 'B') correspond to ShakeMaps with constrained fault dimensions and numerous stations, depending on the density of station/data coverage. Due to these dependencies, the letter grade can change with subsequent ShakeMap revisions if more data are added or when finite-faulting dimensions are added. We emphasize that the greatest uncertainties are associated with unconstrained source dimensions for large earthquakes where the distance term in the GMPE is most uncertain; this uncertainty thus scales with magnitude (and consequently rupture dimension). Since this distance uncertainty produces potentially large uncertainties in ShakeMap ground-motion estimates, this factor dominates over compensating constraints for all but the most dense station distributions.

Open-File Report

Landslides Mapped from LIDAR Imagery, Kitsap County, Washington

Landslides are a recurring problem on hillslopes throughout the Puget Lowland, Washington, but can be difficult to identify in the densely forested terrain. However, digital terrain models of the bare-earth surface derived from LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) data express topographic details sufficiently well to identify landslides. Landslides and escarpments were mapped using LIDAR imagery and field checked (when permissible and accessible) throughout Kitsap County. We relied almost entirely on derivatives of LIDAR data for our mapping, including topographic-contour, slope, and hill-shaded relief maps. Each mapped landslide was assigned a level of 'high' or 'moderate' confidence based on the LIDAR characteristics and on field observations. A total of 231 landslides were identified representing 0.8 percent of the land area of Kitsap County. Shallow debris topples along the coastal bluffs and large (>10,000 m2) landslide complexes are the most common types of landslides. The smallest deposit mapped covers an area of 252 m2, while the largest covers 0.5 km2. Previous mapping efforts that relied solely on field and photogrammetric methods identified only 57 percent of the landslides mapped by LIDAR (61 percent high confidence and 39 percent moderate confidence), although nine landslides previously identified were not mapped during this study. The remaining 43 percent identified using LIDAR have 13 percent high confidence and 87 percent moderate confidence. Coastal areas are especially susceptible to landsliding; 67 percent of the landslide area that we mapped lies within 500 meters of the present coastline. The remaining 33 percent are located along drainages farther inland. The LIDAR data we used for mapping have some limitations including (1) rounding of the interface area between low slope surfaces and vertical faces (that is, along the edges of steep escarpments) which results in scarps being mapped too far headward (one or two meters), (2) incorrect laser-distance measurements resulting in inaccurate elevation values, (3) removal of valid ground elevations, (4) false ground roughness, and (5) faceted surface texture. Several of these limitations are introduced by algorithms in the processing software that are designed to remove non-ground elevations from LIDAR data. Despite these limitations, the algorithm-enhanced LIDAR imagery does effectively 'remove' vegetation that obscures many landslides, and is therefore a valuable tool for landslide inventories and investigations in heavily vegetated regions such as the Puget Lowland.

Open-File Report

The U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model - PCGN: A Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient Solver with Improved Nonlinear Control

The preconditioned conjugate gradient with improved nonlinear control (PCGN) package provides addi-tional means by which the solution of nonlinear ground-water flow problems can be controlled as compared to existing solver packages for MODFLOW. Picard iteration is used to solve nonlinear ground-water flow equations by iteratively solving a linear approximation of the nonlinear equations. The linear solution is provided by means of the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm where preconditioning is provided by the modi-fied incomplete Cholesky algorithm. The incomplete Cholesky scheme incorporates two levels of fill, 0 and 1, in which the pivots can be modified so that the row sums of the preconditioning matrix and the original matrix are approximately equal. A relaxation factor is used to implement the modified pivots, which determines the degree of modification allowed. The effects of fill level and degree of pivot modification are briefly explored by means of a synthetic, heterogeneous finite-difference matrix; results are reported in the final section of this report. The preconditioned conjugate gradient method is coupled with Picard iteration so as to efficiently solve the nonlinear equations associated with many ground-water flow problems. The description of this coupling of the linear solver with Picard iteration is a primary concern of this document.

Open-File Report

Quick-start guide for version 3.0 of EMINERS - Economic Mineral Resource Simulator

Quantitative mineral resource assessment, as developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), consists of three parts: (1) development of grade and tonnage mineral deposit models; (2) delineation of tracts permissive for each deposit type; and (3) probabilistic estimation of the numbers of undiscovered deposits for each deposit type (Singer and Menzie, 2010). The estimate of the number of undiscovered deposits at different levels of probability is the input to the EMINERS (Economic Mineral Resource Simulator) program. EMINERS uses a Monte Carlo statistical process to combine probabilistic estimates of undiscovered mineral deposits with models of mineral deposit grade and tonnage to estimate mineral resources. It is based upon a simulation program developed by Root and others (1992), who discussed many of the methods and algorithms of the program. Various versions of the original program (called "MARK3" and developed by David H. Root, William A. Scott, and Lawrence J. Drew of the USGS) have been published (Root, Scott, and Selner, 1996; Duval, 2000, 2012). The current version (3.0) of the EMINERS program is available as USGS Open-File Report 2004-1344 (Duval, 2012). Changes from version 2.0 include updating 87 grade and tonnage models, designing new templates to produce graphs showing cumulative distribution and summary tables, and disabling economic filters. The economic filters were disabled because embedded data for costs of labor and materials, mining techniques, and beneficiation methods are out of date. However, the cost algorithms used in the disabled economic filters are still in the program and available for reference for mining methods and milling techniques included in Camm (1991). EMINERS is written in C++ and depends upon the Microsoft Visual C++ 6.0 programming environment. The code depends heavily on the use of Microsoft Foundation Classes (MFC) for implementation of the Windows interface. The program works only on Microsoft Windows XP or newer personal computers. It does not work on Macintosh computers. This report demonstrates how to execute EMINERS software using default settings and existing deposit models. Many options are available when setting up the simulation. Information and explanations addressing these optional parameters can be found in the EMINERS Help files. Help files are available during execution of EMINERS by selecting EMINERS Help from the pull-down menu under Help on the EMINERS menu bar. There are four sections in this report. Part I describes the installation, setup, and application of the EMINERS program, and Part II illustrates how to interpret the text file that is produced. Part III describes the creation of tables and graphs by use of the provided Excel templates. Part IV summarizes grade and tonnage models used in version 3.0 of EMINERS.

Open-File Report

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M6.5–7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.

California

The Tetracorder user guide: version 4.4

Imaging spectroscopy mapping software assists in the identification and mapping of materials based on their chemical properties as expressed in spectral measurements of a planet including the solid or liquid surface or atmosphere. Such software can be used to analyze field, aircraft, or spacecraft data; remote sensing datasets; or laboratory spectra. Tetracorder is a set of software algorithms commanded through an expert system to identify materials based on their spectra (Clark and others, 2003). Tetracorder also can be used in traditional remote sensing analyses, because some of the algorithms are a version of a matched filter. Thus, depending on the instructions fed to the Tetracorder system, results can range from simple matched filter output, to spectral feature fitting, to full identification of surface materials (within the limits of the spectral signatures of materials over the spectral range and resolution of the imaging spectroscopy data). A basic understanding of spectroscopy by the user is required for developing an optimum mapping strategy and assessing the results.

Open-File Report

The effect of suspended sediment and color on ultraviolet spectrophotometric nitrate sensors

Four commercially available ultraviolet nitrate spectrophotometric sensors were evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Instrumentation Facility (HIF) to determine the effects of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) on sensor accuracy. The evaluated sensors were: the Hach NITRATAX plus sc (5-millimeters (mm) path length), Hach NITRATAX plus sc (2 mm), S::CAN Spectro::lyser (5 mm), and the Satlantic SUNA V2 (5 mm). A National Institute of Standards and Technology-traceable nitrate-free sediment standard was purchased and used to create the turbid environment, and an easily made filtered tea solution was used for the CDOM test. All four sensors performed well in the test that evaluated the effect of suspended sediment on accuracy. The Hach 5 mm, Hach 2 mm, and the SUNA V2 met their respective manufacturer accuracy specifications up to concentrations of 4,500 milligrams per liter (mg/L) SSC. The S::CAN failed to meet its accuracy specifications when the SSC concentrations exceeded 4,000 mg/L. Test results from the effect of CDOM on accuracy indicated a significant skewing of data from all four sensors and showed an artificial elevation of measured nitrate to varying amounts. Of the four sensors tested, the Satlantic SUNA V2’s accuracy was affected the least in the CDOM test. The nitrate concentration measured by the SUNA V2 was approximately 24 percent higher than the actual concentration when estimated total organic carbon values exceeded 44 mg/L. Measured nitrate concentration falsely increased 49 percent when measured by the Hach 5 mm, and 75 percent when measured by the Hach 2 mm. The S::CAN’s reported nitrate concentration increased 96 percent. Path length plays an important role in the sensor’s ability to compensate measurements for matrix interferences, but does not solely determine how well a sensor can handle all interferences. The sensor’s proprietary algorithms also play a key role in matrix interference compensation. The sensors’ ability to compensate for CDOM varied significantly during the tests, even among the three with 5-mm path lengths. Results of this evaluation suggest that the proprietary algorithms of the nitrate analyzers are more effective compensating for suspended sediment, and less effective compensating for CDOM (color) when sensor path length remains constant.

Open-File Report

Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises. The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking. The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations. The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than when using a regional network of seismometers. Given the current network, a single-station approach provides more warning for damaging earthquakes that occur close to the station, but it would have limited benefit compared to a fully implemented ShakeAlert system. For Honolulu, for example, the single-station approach provides an advantage over ShakeAlert only for earthquakes that occur in a narrow zone extending northeast and southwest of O‘ahu. Instrumentation and alarms associated with the single-station approach are typically maintained and assessed within the target facility, and thus no outside connectivity is required. A single-station approach, then, is unlikely to help broader populations beyond the individuals at the target facility, but they have the benefit of being commercially available for relatively little cost. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional seismic network responsible for locating and characterizing earthquakes across the State of Hawaii. During 2014 and 2015, HVO tested a network-based EEW algorithm within the current seismic network in order to assess the suitability for building a full EEW system. Using the current seismic instrumentation and processing setup at HVO, it is possible for a network approach to release an alarm a little more than 3 seconds after the earthquake is recorded on the fourth seismometer. Presently, earthquakes having M≥3 detected with the ElarmS algorithm have an average location error of approximately 4.5 km and an average magnitude error of -0.3 compared to the reviewed catalog locations from the HVO. Additional stations and upgrades to existing seismic stations would serve to improve solution precision and warning times and additional staffing would be required to provide support for a robust, network-based EEW system. For a critical facility on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as the telescopes atop Mauna Kea, one phased approach to mitigate losses could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

Hawaii

Time-causal decomposition of geomagnetic time series into secular variation, solar quiet, and disturbance signals

A theoretical basis and prototype numerical algorithm are provided that decompose regular time series of geomagnetic observations into three components: secular variation; solar quiet, and disturbance. Respectively, these three components correspond roughly to slow changes in the Earth’s internal magnetic field, periodic daily variations caused by quasi-stationary (with respect to the sun) electrical current systems in the Earth’s magnetosphere, and episodic perturbations to the geomagnetic baseline that are typically driven by fluctuations in a solar wind that interacts electromagnetically with the Earth’s magnetosphere. In contrast to similar algorithms applied to geomagnetic data in the past, this one addresses the issue of real time data acquisition directly by applying a time-causal, exponential smoother with “seasonal corrections” to the data as soon as they become available.

Open-File Report