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Biological control of marine pests

Biological control, as used in terrestrial systems, may hold promise for use against exotic marine species. We first review some marine pests, displaying their diversity, the damage they cause, and possible controls. We then contrast approaches for marine and terrestrial pest control, providing guidelines for adapting terrestrial controls to the marine environment. Although several of the same principles apply in terrestrial and marine environments, marine systems differ with respect to the types of control agents available, the degree of pest—population reduction needed for effective control, the spatial scale over which biological control must operate effectively, the practicality of implementation, and the nature and degree of concern over safety. As an example, we propose a strategy for developing a biological control program against the European green crab, Carcinus maenas, which has had substantial negative impacts where previously introduced (New England, Atlantic Canada, South Africa, south Australia) and which has recently been introduced to central California, and to Tasmania. We conclude that biological control may be possible for some marine pests, but that existing strategies and expectations will require modification.

Ecology

Planning for an uncertain future - Monitoring, integration, and adaptation

The 6.7 billion human inhabitants of the earth have the ability to drastically alter ecosystems and the populations of species that have taken eons to evolve. By better understanding how our actions affect the environment, we stand a better chance of designing successful strategies to manage ecosystems sustainably. Toward this end, the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds (ICRW) was convened in Estes Park, CO, on September 8-11, 2008. The Conference provided a forum to present adaptive management as a practical tool for learning how to manage complex ecosystems more sustainably. Further complexity introduced by spatially variable and continuously changing environmental drivers favors this management approach because of its emphasis on adaptation in response to changing conditions or ineffective actions. For climate change in particular, an adaptive approach can more effectively accommodate the uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Scenarios compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are built on distinct economic, energy, and societal models. The scenarios predict potential changes in greenhouse gases, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric aerosols, which would have direct or indirect impacts on the timing, volume, and quality of runoff, vegetation, snowpack, stream temperature, groundwater, thawing permafrost, and icecaps. Through presentations and field trips, researchers and stakeholders described how their findings and issues fit into the adaptive management 'learning by doing' paradigm of Assess > Design > Implement > Monitor > Evaluate > Adjust > Assess.

Scientific Investigations Report

Genomics of Arctic cod

The Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) is an abundant marine fish that plays a vital role in the marine food web. To better understand the population genetic structure and the role of natural selection acting on the maternally-inherited mitochondrial genome (mitogenome), a molecule often associated with adaptations to temperature, we analyzed genetic data collected from 11 biparentally-inherited nuclear microsatellite DNA loci and nucleotide sequence data from from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) cytochrome b (cytb) gene and, for a subset of individuals, the entire mitogenome. In addition, due to potential of species misidentification with morphologically similar Polar cod (Arctogadus glacialis), we used ddRAD-Seq data to determine the level of divergence between species and identify species-specific markers. Based on the findings presented here, Arctic cod across the Pacific Arctic (Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas) comprise a single panmictic population with high genetic diversity compared to other gadids. High genetic diversity was indicated across all 13 protein-coding genes in the mitogenome. In addition, we found moderate levels of genetic diversity in the nuclear microsatellite loci, with highest diversity found in the Chukchi Sea. Our analyses of markers from both marker classes (nuclear microsatellite fragment data and mtDNA cytb sequence data) failed to uncover a signal of microgeographic genetic structure within Arctic cod across the three regions, within the Alaskan Beaufort Sea, or between near-shore or offshore habitats. Further, data from a subset of mitogenomes revealed no genetic differentiation between Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas populations for Arctic cod, Saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis), or Walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). However, we uncovered significant differences in the distribution of microsatellite alleles between the southern Chukchi and central and eastern Beaufort Sea samples of Arctic cod. Finally, using ddRAD-Seq data, we identified species-specific markers and in conjunction with mitogenome data, identified an Arctic cod x Polar cod hybrid in western Canadian Beaufort Sea. Overall, the lack of genetic structure among Arctic cod within the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas of Alaska is concordant with the absence of geographic barriers to dispersal and typical among marine fishes. Arctic cod may exhibit a genetic pattern of isolation-by-distance, whereby populations in closer geographic proximity are more genetically similar than more distant populations. As this signal is only found between our two fartherest localities, data from populations elsewhere in the species’ global range are needed to determine if this is a general characteristic. Further, tests for selection suggested a limited role for natural selection acting on the mitochondrial genome of Arctic cod, but do not exclude the possibility of selection on genes involved in nuclear-mitogenome interactions. Unlike previous genetic assessment of Arctic cod sampled from the Chukchi Sea, the high levels of genetic diversity found in Arctic cod assayed in this study, across regions, suggests that the species in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas does not suffer from low levels of genetic variation, at least at neutral genetic markers. The large census size of Arctic cod may allow this species to retain high levels of genetic diversity. In addition, we discovered the presence of hybridization between Arctic and Polar cod (although low in frequency). Hybridization is expected to occur when environmental changes modify species distributions that result in contact between species that were previously separated. In such cases, hybridization may be an evolutionary mechanism that promotes an increase in genetic diversity that may provide species occupying changing environments with locally-adapted genotypes and, therefore, phenotypes. Natural selection can only act on the standing genetic variation present within a population. Therefore, given its higher levels of genetic diversity in combination with a large population size, Arctic cod may be resilient to current and future environmental change, as high genetic diversity is expected to increase opportunities for positive selection to act on genetic variants beneficial in different environments, regardless of the source of that genetic variation.

OCS Study

Stock composition of Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) encountered in marine and estuarine environments on the U.S. Atlantic Coast

Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) is a large, anadromous fish native to the Atlantic Coast of North America. Although this species once supported important fisheries, centuries of exploitation and habitat degradation have resulted in dramatic declines, presumed extirpation in some rivers, and ultimately listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Under the ESA, Atlantic sturgeon are listed as five separate Distinct Population Segments (DPSs), which form the basis for federal management. Despite state and federal protections Atlantic sturgeon still face significant threats to their recovery, including fisheries bycatch mortality, marine construction, dredging, dams, and vessel strikes. However, because subadult and adult Atlantic sturgeon migrate extensively across estuarine and marine environments and frequently form mixed-stock aggregations in non-natal habitats, it can be difficult to determine how these threats impact specific populations and DPSs. To better understand ontogenetic shifts in habitat use and stock-specific exposure to anthropogenic threats, we performed a mixed-stock analysis of 1704 Atlantic sturgeon encountered across the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Collections made north of Cape Cod, MA and south of Cape Hatteras, NC were dominated by individuals from regional stocks; however, we found extensive stock mixing in the mid-Atlantic region, particularly in coastal environments where individuals from all five DPSs were commonly observed. Subadults and adults that were encountered in offshore environments had moved, on average, 277 km from their natal source; however, 23% were sampled over 500 km from their natal river suggesting long-distance movements are relatively common in these age classes. Overall, our work highlights that Atlantic sturgeon populations are vulnerable to threats over vast areas and emphasizes the need for continued genetic monitoring to track recovery progress.

Atlantic Coast

[Book review] The Eastern Screech Owl: Life History, Ecology and Behavior in the Suburbs and Countryside, by Frederick Gehlback

Review of: Eastern Screech Owl: Life History, Ecology, and Behavior in the Suburbs and Countryside. Frederick R. Gehlbach. Issue 16; Issue 2008 of W. L. Moody Jr. Natural History Series. Texas A&M University Press; 1st edition (November 1994). ISBN: 0890966095. For ornithologists and ecologists alike, Fred Gehlbach's book promises to hold both interest and information value as a comprehensive study of the eastern screech owl (Otus asio hasbroucki). Gehlbach was intrigued with screech owls as a boy and encouraged as an undergraduate by William Hamilton, who underscored that in-depth studies of familiar backyard species can be as fascinating as those in exotic sites. Correspondence with another owl-aficionado, the late H. N. Southern, inspired the author's long-term study of screech owls in a woodland landscape in central Texas and led him to provide nest boxes to enhance his access and sample size. This book is based on observations over a 25-year period-beginning in 1967, with intensive study during an 11-year period (1976-1987) in Texas south of Waco, where Gehlbach teaches at Baylor University. The study represents observations on 659 screech owls, covering several generations of birds and entire lives of many individuals. Gehlbach compares screech owl nesting behavior in a rural versus suburban setting and includes chapters on food supplies and predation tactics; egg-laying, incubation, and parental behavior; vocalizations; and population structure and flux. He discusses why screech owls are widespread across the eastern half of North America and why they succeed among people in suburban environments, where they adapt as easily to mailboxes and porch columns as to natural tree cavities. The book mixes two approaches: on the one hand the dense style of a technical book in which the professional biologist can find information on many aspects of screech owl behavior, life history, and population, including tables, figures, summary statistics, results of statistical comparisons, and experimental tests of hypotheses. On the other hand, each chapter begins with and includes vivid visual images, personal experiences, and thoughtful reflections to draw in the general reader, bridging the interesting topic to the technical details and making the information accessible to a wider audience. The reader is impressed with Dr. Gehlbach's love of his subject, his devotion to long-term study, and his care in presenting the work to his fellow ornithologists, ecologists, and all those interested in wildlife and conservation. It will be a useful reference because of its wealth of information on all aspects of screech owl life history. It is well documented and, in addition to its 10 chapters, includes 10 appendices with information on types of food supplies, bird species that mob screech owls, a daily chronology of nestling development, and a selection of edited field notes to provide background for each chapter. The book is thoroughly referenced and indexed. The Eastern Screech Owl will be read with interest by those with an interest in long-term, in-depth studies and those who love charming stories about remarkable birds with strong personalities and interesting behavior.

Wildlife Review

Managing a subsidized predator population: Reducing common raven predation on desert tortoises

Human communities often are an inadvertent source of food, water, and other resources to native species of wildlife. Because these resources are more stable and predictable than those in a natural environment, animals that subsist on them are able to increase in numbers and expand their range, much to the detriment of their competitors and species they prey upon. In the Mojave Desert, common ravens (Corvus corax) have benefited from human-provided resources to increase in population size precipitously in recent years. This trend has caused concern because ravens prey on juvenile desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii), a federally threatened species. In this paper, I discuss management strategies to reduce raven predation on desert tortoises. The recommendations fall into three categories: (1) managing raven populations by reducing access to anthropogenic resources; (2) removing offending ravens or other birds in specially targeted tortoise management zones; and (3) continuing research on raven ecology, raven behavior, and methods of reducing raven predation on tortoises. I also recommend approaching the problem within an adaptive management framework: management efforts should first be employed as scientific experiments - with replicates and controls - to yield an unbiased assessment of their effectiveness. Furthermore, these strategies should be implemented in concert with actions that reduce other causes of desert tortoise mortality to aid the long-term recovery of their populations. Overall, the approaches outlined in this paper are widely applicable to the management of subsidized predators, particularly where they present a threat to a declining species of prey.

Environmental Management

Restricted gene flow between resident Oncorhynchus mykiss and an admixed population of anadromous steelhead

The species Oncorhynchus mykiss is characterized by a complex life history that presents a significant challenge for population monitoring and conservation management. Many factors contribute to genetic variation in O. mykiss populations, including sympatry among migratory phenotypes, habitat heterogeneity, hatchery introgression, and immigration (stray) rates. The relative influences of these and other factors are contingent on characteristics of the local environment. The Rock Creek subbasin in the middle Columbia River has no history of hatchery supplementation and no dams or artificial barriers. Limited intervention and minimal management have led to a dearth of information regarding the genetic distinctiveness of the extant O. mykiss population in Rock Creek and its tributaries. We used 192 SNP markers and collections sampled over a 5‐year period to evaluate the temporal and spatial genetic structures of O. mykiss between upper and lower watersheds of the Rock Creek subbasin. We investigated potential limits to gene flow within the lower watershed where the stream is fragmented by seasonally dry stretches of streambed, and between upper and lower watershed regions. We found minor genetic differentiation within the lower watershed occupied by anadromous steelhead ( F ST = 0.004), and evidence that immigrant influences were prevalent and ubiquitous. Populations in the upper watershed above partial natural barriers were highly distinct ( F ST = 0.093) and minimally impacted by apparent introgression. Genetic structure between watersheds paralleled differences in local demographics (e.g., variation in size), migratory restrictions, and habitat discontinuity. The evidence of restricted gene flow between putative remnant resident populations in the upper watershed and the admixed anadromous population in the lower watershed has implications for local steelhead productivity and regional conservation.

Washington

Microbial populations in contaminant plumes

Efficient biodegradation of subsurface contaminants requires two elements: (1) microbial populations with the necessary degradative capabilities, and (2) favorable subsurface geochemical and hydrological conditions. Practical constraints on experimental design and interpretation in both the hydrogeological and microbiological sciences have resulted in limited knowledge of the interaction between hydrogeological and microbiological features of subsurface environments. These practical constraints include: (1) inconsistencies between the scales of investigation in the hydrogeological and microbiological sciences, and (2) practical limitations on the ability to accurately define microbial populations in environmental samples. However, advances in application of small-scale sampling methods and interdisciplinary approaches to site investigations are beginning to significantly improve understanding of hydrogeological and microbiological interactions. Likewise, culture-based and molecular analyses of microbial populations in subsurface contaminant plumes have revealed significant adaptation of microbial populations to plume environmental conditions. Results of recent studies suggest that variability in subsurface geochemical and hydrological conditions significantly influences subsurface microbial-community structure. Combined investigations of site conditions and microbial-community structure provide the knowledge needed to understand interactions between subsurface microbial populations, plume geochemistry, and contaminant biodegradation.

Hydrogeology Journal

Movement patterns of Brook Trout in a restored coastal stream system in southern Massachusetts

Coastal Brook Trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) populations are found from northern Canada to New England. The extent of anadromy generally decreases with latitude, but the ecology and movements of more southern populations are poorly understood. We conducted a 33-month acoustic telemetry study of Brook Trout in Red Brook, MA, and adjacent Buttermilk Bay (marine system) using 16 fixed acoustic receivers and surgically implanting acoustic transmitters in 84 individuals. Tagged Brook Trout used the stream, estuary (50% of individuals) and bay (10% of individuals). Movements into full sea water were brief when occurring. GAMM models revealed that transitions between habitat areas occurred most often in spring and fall. Environmental data suggest that use of the saline environment is limited by summer temperatures in the bay. Movements may also be related to moon phase. Compared to more northern coastal populations of Brook Trout, the Red Brook population appears to be less anadromous overall, yet the estuarine segment of the system may have considerable ecological importance as a food resource.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish

On forming an Ornithological Council

It has begun to bother me that the ornithological societies seem to be playing an extremely minor role in anything to do with conserving, preserving, or salvaging the environment. We realize-or we tell each other that we do-that birds are an important part of the world's ecosystems, that they can often serve as indicator species of environmental problems, that what affects bird populations can and will eventually affect the human population. But as organizations, we lack a mechanism to tell anyone other than ourselves about our concerns or how the knowledge our study produces can be used to help efforts to protect either the birds themselves or the environment of which they and we are parts. We can, and some do, share our concerns and knowledge individually, but we have no effective way to say that 5,000 ornithologists think that "Plan A is a good idea" or "Plan B could lead to declines in bird populations" or even that "Plan C would have a very bad (or good) effect on the scientific study of birds that is needed to know whether Plans A and B are good." Our current mechanism for action is pretty much restricted to adopting resolutions saying, in effect, "We think you shouldn't have done that" or "We wish you would do something." Even the timing of this mechanism leaves much to be desired if we really intend to have any effect.

The Auk

Microbial ecology of corals, sponges, and algae in mesophotic coral environments

Mesophotic coral ecosystems that occur at depths from 30 to 200 m have historically been understudied and yet appear to support a diverse biological community. The microbiology of these systems is particularly poorly understood, especially with regard to the communities associated with corals, sponges, and algae. This lack of information is partly due to the problems associated with gaining access to these environments and poor reproducibility across sampling methods. To summarize what is known about the microbiology of these ecosystems and to highlight areas where research is urgently needed, an overview of the current state of knowledge is presented. Emphasis is placed on the characterization of microbial populations, both prokaryotic and eukaryotic, associated with corals, sponges, and algae and the factors that influence microbial community structure. In topic areas where virtually nothing is known from mesophotic environments, the knowledge pertaining to shallow-water ecosystems is summarized to provide a starting point for a discussion on what might be expected in the mesophotic zone.

FEMS Microbiology Ecology

Intra-population variation in activity ranges, diel patterns, movement rates, and habitat use of American alligators in a subtropical estuary

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intrapopulation variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Polychlorinated biphenyl residues and egg mortality in double-crested cormorants from the Great Lakes

We evaluated the overall potency of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-containing extracts from double-crested cormorant ( Phalacrocorax auritis ) eggs with an in vitro bioassay system, the H4IIE rat hepatoma cell bioassay. Results from the H4IIE bioassay were strongly correlated with the hatching success of eggs in the colonies, whereas conventional methods of PCB analysis correlated poorly with hatching success of eggs from the same colonies. These observations suggest that even though concentrations of total PCB residues have declined in almost all compartments of the environment, their effects are still being observed. The significance of this observation is that the adverse symptoms presently observed in certain Great Lakes fish-eating waterbird populations do not appear to be caused by some as yet unidentified industrial chemical or chemicals and seem not to be the result of pesticides, but rather to the dioxin-like activity of PCBs. Evidence is presented to suggest that the relative enrichment of the potency of PCBs in the environment may play a role in the persistence of the observed adverse symptoms.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA): a new approach to estimate occurrence in Vulnerable manatee populations

Environmental DNA (eDNA) detection is a technique used to non-invasively detect cryptic, low density, or logistically difficult-to-study species, such as imperiled manatees. For eDNA measurement, genetic material shed into the environment is concentrated from water samples and analyzed for the presence of target species. Cytochrome b quantitative PCR and droplet digital PCR eDNA assays were developed for the 3 Vulnerable manatee species: African, Amazonian, and both subspecies of the West Indian (Florida and Antillean) manatee. Environmental DNA assays can help to delineate manatee habitat ranges, high use areas, and seasonal population changes. To validate the assay, water was analyzed from Florida’s east coast containing a high-density manatee population and produced 31564 DNA molecules l -1 on average and high occurrence (ψ) and detection (p) estimates (ψ = 0.84 [0.40-0.99]; p = 0.99 [0.95-1.00]; limit of detection 3 copies µl -1 ). Similar occupancy estimates were produced in the Florida Panhandle (ψ = 0.79 [0.54-0.97]) and Cuba (ψ = 0.89 [0.54-1.00]), while occupancy estimates in Cameroon were lower (ψ = 0.49 [0.09-0.95]). The eDNA-derived detection estimates were higher than those generated using aerial survey data on the west coast of Florida and may be effective for population monitoring. Subsequent eDNA studies could be particularly useful in locations where manatees are (1) difficult to identify visually (e.g. the Amazon River and Africa), (2) are present in patchy distributions or are on the verge of extinction (e.g. Jamaica, Haiti), and (3) where repatriation efforts are proposed (e.g. Brazil, Guadeloupe). Extension of these eDNA techniques could be applied to other imperiled marine mammal populations such as African and Asian dugongs.

Endangered Species Research

Evaluating potential distribution of high-risk aquatic invasive species in the water garden and aquarium trade at a global scale based on current established populations

Aquatic non‐native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non‐native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.

Risk Analysis

The incubation environment of nests deposited by a genetically distinct group of loggerhead sea turtles in Northwest Florida

The warming climate presents a challenge to conservation of all threatened and endangered species but particularly to those that exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination such as sea turtles. Changes in temperature may result in changes in the sex ratio of the population which can directly affect reproductive rate, abundance and population dynamics. The NW Atlantic loggerhead turtle population is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and one of the smallest subpopulations in this assemblage nests in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here, we describe the incubation environment of northern Gulf of Mexico loggerheads nesting at several different beaches in Northwest Florida. Temperature dataloggers were placed inside and adjacent to nests on different nesting beaches across Northwest Florida. In addition, incubation durations were recorded from nests deposited on those same beaches. Internal nest temperatures were higher than those in the sand, however sand temperatures were correlated with incubation durations. Sand temperatures differed along the vertical beach profile and according to depth. Temperatures also differed along a geographic gradient across Northwest Florida and in relation to distance from the Apalachicola River. Incubation durations followed a similar pattern. Mean monthly temperatures at all sites were at or lower than 29 °C (range 23.1 °C–29.6 °C at the dunes; 23.8 °C–29.4 °C at mid-beach) which suggests nests in Northwest Florida may be producing a significant number of males, in contrast to the large number of females being produced on Florida's Atlantic coast. The temperatures and incubation durations on these nesting beaches may be regulated by differing sources of sand and beach orientations across Northwest Florida.

Northwest Florida

The power to detect trends in Missouri River fish populations within the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program

As with all large rivers in the United States, the Missouri River has been altered, with approximately 32.5 percent of the main stem length impounded and 32.5 percent channelized. These physical alterations to the environment have had effects on the fisheries, but studies examining the effects of alterations have been localized and for short periods of time. In response to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biological opinion, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers initiated monitoring of the fish community of the Missouri River in 2003. The goal of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program is to provide information to detect changes in populations and habitat preferences with time for pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) and native target species in the Missouri River Basin. To determine statistical power of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program, a power analysis was conducted using a normal linear mixed model with variance component estimates based on the first 3 years of data (2003 to 2005). In cases where 3 years of data were unavailable, estimates were obtained using those data. It was determined that at least 20 years of data, sampling 12 bends with 8 subsamples per bend, would be required to detect a 5 percent annual decline in most of the target fish populations. Power varied between Zones. Zone 1 (upstream from Lake Sakakawea) did not have any species/gear type combinations with adequate power, whereas Zone 3 (downstream from Gavins Point Dam) had 19 species/gear type combinations with adequate power. With a slight increase in the sampling effort to 12 subsamples per bend, the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program has adequate power to detect declines in shovelnose sturgeon (S. platorynchus) throughout the entire Missouri River because of large catch rates. The lowest level of non-occurrence (in other words, zero catches) at the bend level for pallid sturgeon was 0.58 using otter trawls in Zone 1. Consequently, the power of the pallid sturgeon models was not as high as other species at the current level of sampling, but an increase in the sampling effort to 16 subsamples for each of 24 bends for 20 years would generate adequate power for the pallid sturgeon in all Zones. Since gear types are selective in their species efficiency, the strength of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program approach is using multiple gears that have statistical power to detect population trends at the same time in different fish species within the Missouri River. As often is the case with monitoring studies involving endangered species, the data used to conduct the analyses exhibit some departures from the parametric model assumptions; however, preliminary simulations indicate that the results of this study are appropriate.

Open-File Report

The relative influence of geographic and environmental factors on rare plant translocation outcomes

Conservation translocations are an established method for reducing the extinction risk of plant species through intentional movement within or outside the indigenous range. Unsuitable environmental conditions at translocation recipient sites and a lack of understanding of species–environment relationships are often identified as critical barriers to translocation success. However, previous syntheses have drawn these inferences from analyses of qualitative feedback rather than quantitative environmental data. In this study, we use a data set of 235 translocations conducted in the US to understand the influences of geographic and environmental factors on three metrics of translocation success: population persistence, next-generation recruitment and next-generation maturity. We use random forest models to quantify the relative importance of geographic and environmental factors that characterize dissimilarity between source and recipient locations, the position of recipient sites relative to species' ranges and niche metrics derived from these ranges. We also compare the importance of these variables with more conventional predictors (e.g. founder population size). Our results indicate that geographic and environmental variables can be as insightful as conventional variables for predicting plant translocation outcomes. The climate suitability of recipient sites, estimated using species distribution models, was the strongest relative predictor of whether a population persisted, with populations situated in more suitable climates displaying greater persistence. Next-generation recruitment and maturity were best predicted by niche metrics; species in more biotically limiting environments, including tropical regions and soils with high relative nutrient retention, as well as species with the broadest precipitation niches, were the least likely to attain these next-generation benchmarks. Synthesis and applications . Our study is one of the first to quantify the important role of spatial and climatic factors in rare plant translocation outcomes. We provide a novel geographic and environmental perspective on outcomes in plant translocations and demonstrate opportunities to improve translocation success not only by adhering to established best practice guidelines but also by integrating spatial modelling approaches into planning and management processes.

Journal of Applied Ecology