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Globally detected volcanic lightning and umbrella dynamics during the 2014 eruption of Kelud, Indonesia

Volcanic lightning shows considerable promise as a monitoring and research tool to characterize explosive eruptions. Its key strengths are rapid and remote detection, because the radio signals produced by lightning can propagate thousands of km at the speed of light. Despite these tantalizing properties, the scientific work on volcanic lightning has only recently started gaining momentum. Much more is needed to understand what lightning reveals about the evolution of an eruption in near-real time. Here we examine the timing and energy release of lightning generated by the eruption of Kelud volcano in Indonesia on 13 February 2014, as detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). The eruption column reached at least 26 km above sea level, representing the highest plume since the advent of global lightning networks in the last decade. Therefore, it provides valuable constraints on the electrification of end-member, sustained Plinian columns. We investigate the lightning in context with satellite images, photographs, and other published studies. Results show that the earliest satellite-detected activity was a thermal anomaly at ~15:46 UTC, corresponding to a directed blast at the onset of eruption (and only a few lightning strokes). Following a brief pause, the eruption produced a sustained column and umbrella cloud that spread outward into the tropical stratosphere. Rates of umbrella expansion provide an average mass eruption rate (MER) in the range of 8 × 10 7 –1 × 10 8 kg s −1 . A more nuanced picture emerges from the time-varying MERs (determined between each satellite pass), which show rapid intensification during the first hour of eruption, followed by constant MER for about an hour, and waning toward the end (after ~17:50 UTC). At this stage, decreasing flux into the umbrella cloud coincides with column instability and formation of pyroclastic density currents, as recorded by photos from the ground ~17:45 UTC. We infer that some of the erupted mass partitioned into ground-hugging currents, leading to a lower apparent MER. Interestingly, there is not a 1:1 correlation between lightning intensity and MER over the course of eruption. Stroke rates increase sharply within the first 30–40 min (during rapid intensification of the plume), and then drop below 2 strokes per min once the MER remains constant. This suggests that electrification was controlled by the rate of increase in MER—in other words, the acceleration of particles out of the vent. We also show that lightning stroke-rates and energies are greatest within 50 km of the vent, even when the ash cloud extends >200 km downwind, indicating that lightning was focused in the regions of highest particle concentration and turbulence. Overall, we conclude that abrupt changes in lightning rates are clearly linked to changes in eruption behavior, and that rapid detection could aid monitoring efforts to characterize eruption rates or styles.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Physical response of a back-barrier estuary to a post-tropical cyclone

This paper presents a modeling investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport response of Chincoteague Bay (VA/MD, USA) to Hurricane Sandy using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport (COAWST) modeling system. Several simulation scenarios with different combinations of remote and local forces were conducted to identify the dominant physical processes. While 80% of the water level increase in the bay was due to coastal sea level at the peak of the storm, a rich spatial and temporal variability in water surface slope was induced by local winds and waves. Local wind increased vertical mixing, horizontal exchanges, and flushing through the inlets. Remote waves (swell) enhanced southward flow through wave setup gradients between the inlets, and increased locally generated wave heights. Locally generated waves had a negligible effect on water level but reduced the residual flow up to 70% due to enhanced apparent roughness and breaking-induced forces. Locally generated waves dominated bed shear stress and sediment resuspension in the bay. Sediment transport patterns mirrored the interior coastline shape and generated deposition on inundated areas. The bay served as a source of fine sediment to the inner shelf, and the ocean-facing barrier island accumulated sand from landward-directed overwash. Despite the intensity of the storm forcing, the bathymetric changes in the bay were on the order of centimeters. This work demonstrates the spectrum of responses to storm forcing, and highlights the importance of local and remote processes on back-barrier estuarine function.

Chincoteague Bay↗

Thiamine concentrations in lake trout and Atlantic salmon eggs during 14 years following the invasion of alewife in Lake Champlain

Thiamine (vitamin B 1 ) deficiency in Great Lakes salmonines has been linked to consumption of alewife Alosa pseudoharengus . Thiamine deficiency has been recognized as a possible impediment to lake trout Salvelinus namaycush recruitment in the Great Lakes and Atlantic salmon Salmo salar recruitment in the Finger Lakes and Baltic Sea. Alewife invaded Lake Champlain in 2003 which provided an opportunity to investigate changes in thiamine concentrations in salmonine predators during an alewife invasion. We monitored egg unphosphorylated and total thiamine concentrations in lake trout and Atlantic salmon in 2004 and 2007–2019, assessed whether concentrations were associated with mortality, and examined thiaminase activity in alewife. Total thiamine concentrations in lake trout and Atlantic salmon were significantly lower than in 2004 for seven of the ten collection years for lake trout and for nine of the 12 collection years for Atlantic salmon. Mortality and signs of thiamine deficiency were observed in laboratory-reared Atlantic salmon free embryos but not in lake trout. Average thiaminase activity in adult alewife declined from 5200 pmol/g/min in 2006 to 1500 pmol/g/min in 2012. Our results provide further evidence that a diet that includes alewife reduces egg thiamine concentrations in salmonines. This effect was observed within four years of the invasion of alewife.

Vermont↗

Tomographic image of a seismically active volcano: Mammoth Mountain, California

High-resolution tomographic P wave, S wave, and V P / V S velocity structure models are derived for Mammoth Mountain, California, using phase data from the Northern California Seismic Network and a temporary deployment of broadband seismometers. An anomalous volume (5.1 × 10 9 to 5.9 × 10 10 m 3 ) of low P and low S wave velocities is imaged beneath Mammoth Mountain, extending from near the surface to a depth of ∼2 km below sea level. We infer that the reduction in seismic wave velocities is due to the presence of CO 2 distributed in oblate spheroid pores with mean aspect ratio α = 1.6 × 10 −3 to 7.9 × 10 −3 (crack-like pores) and mean gas volume fraction ϕ = 8.1 × 10 −4 to 3.4 × 10 −3 . The pore density parameter κ = 3 ϕ /(4π α ) = na 3 =0.11, where n is the number of pores per cubic meter and a is the mean pore equatorial radius. The total mass of CO 2 is estimated to be 4.6 × 10 9 to 1.9 × 10 11 kg. The local geological structure indicates that the CO 2 contained in the pores is delivered to the surface through fractures controlled by faults and remnant foliation of the bedrock beneath Mammoth Mountain. The total volume of CO 2 contained in the reservoir suggests that given an emission rate of 500 tons day −1 , the reservoir could supply the emission of CO 2 for ∼25–1040 years before depletion. Continued supply of CO 2 from an underlying magmatic system would significantly prolong the existence of the reservoir.

California↗

Age and paleoenvironment of the imperial formation near San Gorgonio Pass, Southern California

Microfossiliferous marine sediments of the Imperial Formation exposed in the Whitewater and Cabazon areas, near San Gorgonio Pass, southern California, are late Miocene in age and were deposited at intertidal to outer neritic depths, and possibly upper bathyal depths. A late Miocene age of 7.4 to >6.04 Ma is based on the ranges of age-diagnostic benthic foraminifers (Cassidulina delicata and Uvigerina peregrina), planktic foraminifers (Globigerinoides obliquus, G. extremus, and Globigerina nepenthes; zones N17-N19), and calcareous nannoplankton (Discoaster brouweri, D. aff. D. surculus, Reticulofenestra pseudoumbilicata, Sphenolithus abies, and S. neoabies; zones CN9a-CN11) coupled with published K/Ar dates from the underlying Coachella Formation (10.1 ?? 1.2 Ma; Peterson, 1975) and overlying Painted Hill Formation (6.04 ?? 0.18 and 5.94 ?? 0.18 Ma; J. L. Morton in Matti and others, 1985 and Matti and Morton, 1993). Paleoecologic considerations (sea-level fluctuations and paleotemperature) restrict the age of the Imperial Formation to 6.5 through 6.3 Ma. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages indicate that the Imperial Formation in the Whitewater and Cabazon sections accumulated at inner neritic to outer neritic (0-152 m) and possibly upper bathyal (152-244 m) depths. Shallowing to inner neritic depths occurred as the upper part of the section was deposited. This sea-level fluctuation corresponds to a global highstand at 6.3 Ma (Haq and others, 1987). Planktic foraminifers suggest an increase in surface-water temperatures upsection. A similar increase in paleotemperatures is interpreted for the North Pacific from 6.5 to 6.3 Ma (warm interval W10 of Barron and Keller, 1983). Environmental contrasts between the Whitewater and Cabazon sections of the Imperial Formation provide evidence for right-lateral displacements on the Banning fault, a late Miocene strand of the San Andreas fault system. The Cabazon section lies south of the Banning fault, and has been displaced west relative to the Whitewater sections. The Cabazon section was deposited at greater depths, suggesting that it accumulated farther offshore than the Whitewater section. If the Salton Trough was a southward-opening, elongated northwest-southeast basin similar to the modern Gulf of California, the Cabazon sequence probably has been displaced right-laterally from a position farther southeast of the Whitewater sequence. This relation requires late Miocene displacements greater than the present 12 km cross-fault separation between the two Imperial sections in the San Gorgonio Pass area.

Journal of Foraminiferal Research↗

The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol–cloud interactions, chemistry–climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical system component of earth system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future—for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud droplet activation by aerosols, subgrid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. Its horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km, and its vertical resolution ranges approximately from 70 m near the earth’s surface to 1 to 1.5 km near the tropopause and 3 to 4 km in much of the stratosphere. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, as in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks remains problematic, as in AM2. The most intense 0.2% of precipitation rates occur less frequently in AM3 than observed. The last two decades of the twentieth century warm in CM3 by 0.32°C relative to 1881–1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of 0.56° and 0.52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol–cloud interactions, and its warming by the late twentieth century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed 0.66°C but did not include aerosol–cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud–aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming.

Journal of Climate↗

Laying sequence and oceanographic factors affect egg size in Scripps's Murrelets Synthliboramphus scrippsi at Santa Barbara Island

Egg size is an important avian life history parameter, with larger eggs indicating greater investment of resources in the chick. Prey availability can affect such investment. We investigated the effects of oceanographic conditions and laying sequence on Scripps's Murrelet Synthliboramphus scrippsi egg size at Santa Barbara Island, California during 2009-2017. We evaluated oceanographic covariates characterizing marine productivity for their effect on egg size, including large-scale oceanographic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. We also evaluated a larval anchovy catch-per-unit-effort (ANCHL) index and the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) as region-wide indices, and sea surface temperature (SST) as a local index. We evaluated oceanographic conditions over the entire year and during the breeding season only. We also considered the contribution of lagged effects to oceanographic conditions. Our results generally ran counter to our hypothesis that increased ocean productivity should increase egg size. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion, the four top-ranked models provided support for an association between larger eggs and conditions indicative of lower oceanographic productivity, including lower values of BEUTI and NPGO, and higher values of ONI, PDO, and SST. The only result that supported our hypothesis was a positive relationship between ANCHL and egg size, although the 95% confidence interval for the effect included 0. The strongest relationship detected was between laying sequence and egg size, as second eggs were considerably larger than first eggs. Our results indicate substantial complexity in the relationship between ocean productivity and seabird demography. A better understanding of how ocean productivity affects seabird breeding outcomes through multiple mechanisms will help improve predictions of how seabirds will respond to changing ocean conditions.

California↗

Extensive coral mortality in the US Virgin Islands in 2005/2006: A review of the evidence for synergy among thermal stress, coral bleaching and disease

In the summer/fall of 2005, extensive coral bleaching on reefs in the US Virgin Islands (USVI) was associated with sea water temperatures exceeding 30°C. Almost all coral species bleached, including Acropora palmata , which bleached for the first time on record in the USVI. As water temperatures cooled, corals began to regain their normal coloration. However, a severe disease outbreak then occurred on deeper, non-acroporid reefs. The disease demonstrated signs consistent with white plague. Monitoring of coral cover along previously established long-term transects on several reefs in St. John and St. Croix was intensified. Data on bleaching and disease were collected before, during and after this bleaching/disease episode. Average coral cover declined by over 50%, from 21.4% to 10.3% at the long-term study sites, within one year of the onset of bleaching, declining further to 8.3% after two years. This loss of coral cover was greater than from all other stressors affecting the USVI reefs in preceding years, and no significant recovery is evident. Disease prevalence increased on bleached A. palmata colonies that were being monitored as well as on the colonies of other species on the deeper reefs. Bleached A. palmata colonies had more disease (primarily white pox and other un-described diseases) than unbleached colonies. The non-acroporid corals that bleached most severely suffered the highest mortality from disease. Although the research summarized in this paper is not conclusive, the results suggest that high water temperatures lead to bleaching, which weakens corals and makes them more vulnerable to diseases.

U.S. Virgin Islands↗

Persistent organic pollutants in the blood of free-ranging sea otters (Enhydra lutris ssp.) in Alaska and California

As part of tagging and ecologic research efforts in 1997 and 1998, apparently healthy sea otters of four age-sex classes in six locations in Alaska and three in California were sampled for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and other chemicals of ecologic or environmental concern (COECs). Published techniques for the detection of POPs (specifically Σpolychlorinated biphenyls [PCBs], ΣDDTs, Σhexachlorocyclohexanes [HCHs], Σpolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [PAHs], Σchlordanes [CHLs], hexachlorobenzene [HCB], dieldrin, and mirex) in the tissue of dead otters were modified for use with serum from live sea otters. Toxic equivalencies (TEQs) were calculated for POPs with proven bioactivity. Strong location effects were seen for most POPs and COECs; sea otters in California generally showed higher mean concentrations than those in Alaska. Differences in contaminant concentrations were detected among age and sex classes, with high levels frequently observed in subadults. Very high levels of ΣDDT were detected in male sea otters in Elkhorn Slough, California, where strong freshwater outflow from agricultural areas occurs seasonally. All contaminants except mirex differed among Alaskan locations; only ΣDDT, HCB, and chlorpyrifos differed within California. High levels of ΣPCB (particularly larger, more persistent congeners) were detected at two locations in Alaska where associations between elevated PCBs and military activity have been established, while higher PCB levels were found at all three locations in California where no point source of PCBs has been identified. Although POP and COEC concentrations in blood may be less likely to reflect total body burden, concentrations in blood of healthy animals may be more biologically relevant and less influenced by state of nutrition or perimortem factors than other tissues routinely sampled.

Alaska, California↗

Age of tilted reefs, Hawaii

Submerged carbonate reefs are preserved as a series of submarine terraces between Molokai and Hawaii along a 200-km span of the southeastern Hawaiian Ridge. Limestones from two of the terraces have been sampled from submersibles and dated radiometrically at 13 and 120 ka. Recognition that the terraces are tilted permits assignment of about a dozen terraces from 150 to 1300 m depth to eight general reef platforms. These reefs were drowned by the combined effects of island subsidence and sea level rise at the end of successive glacial stages from 13 to 647 ka. The platforms are tilted 5 m/km southeast toward the locus of volcanic loading centered on the island of Hawaii. The end of the active period of volcanic shield building is represented on each nonactive volcano by a submerged change in slope. Dating of this slope change by reference to the dated reefs provides independent evidence that shield building ended at about the same time that the volcano changed from eruption of tholeiitic to alkalic basalt. The variation in depth of the dated tilted reefs along the ridge indicates that the end of subsidence follows the end of shield building by about one half million years. The present northwest margin of major subsidence probably crosses southeast Maui. During the last half million years the rate of southeast migration of the beginning of both subsidence and of tholeiitic volcanism does not appear to have increased. However, the rate of southeast migration of the end of both subsidence and of tholeiitic volcanism has apparently increased. This shortening of the life history of the younger volcanoes implies an increase in eruption rates.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Spatial variability of sediment transport processes over intratidal and subtidal timescales within a fringing coral reef system

Sediment produced on fringing coral reefs that is transported along the bed or in suspension affects ecological reef communities as well as the morphological development of the reef, lagoon, and adjacent shoreline. This study quantified the physical process contribution and relative importance of sea‐swell waves, infragravity waves, and mean currents to the spatial and temporal variability of sediment in suspension. Estimates of bed shear stresses demonstrate that sea‐swell waves are the key driver of the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) variability spatially (reef flat, lagoon, and channels) but cannot fully describe the SSC variability alone. The comparatively small but statistically significant contribution to the bed shear stress by infragravity waves and currents, along with the spatial availability of sediment of a suitable size and volume, is also important. Although intratidal variability in SSC occurs in the different reef zones, the majority of the variability occurs over longer slowly varying (subtidal) timescales, which is related to the arrival of large swell waves at a reef location. The predominant flow pathway, which can transport suspended sediment, consists of cross‐reef flow across the reef flat that diverges in the lagoon and returns offshore through channels. This pathway is primarily due to subtidal variations in wave‐driven flows but can also be driven alongshore by wind stresses when the incident waves are small. Higher frequency (intratidal) current variability also occurs due to both tidal flows and variations in the water depth that influence wave transmission across the reef and wave‐driven currents.

Western Australia↗

Mark-recapture population estimates of parasitic sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) in Lake Huron

Metamorphosed sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) were collected and marked at two points in their life cycle. Recently metamorphosed juveniles were collected from streams, marked with coded wire tags, and returned to migrate to the Great Lakes. Juveniles already in the lakes and feeding on teleost hosts were obtained from incidental catches by sport or commercial fisheries. Sea lampreys in the Great Lakes spend only 1 feeding year as parasites, and marked animals were recaptured during the spawning runs. For one marked group in each of four parasitic cohorts (feeding years 1991 to 1994) and two marked groups in each of three cohorts (feeding years 1998 to 2000) we recovered from 1.1 to 10.2 percent of marked animals. The number of metamorphosed animals present in autumn before migration to Lake Huron was estimated for five cohorts, with estimates ranging from 639 to 803 thousand. The number of feeding, parasitic animals present in Lake Huron in mid summer was estimated for five cohorts, with estimates ranging from 515,000 to 2,342,000. The larger estimates later in the parasitic year suggested that animals collected and marked from sport or commercial fisheries did not survive at the same rate as unmarked animals. It is recommended that only estimates from recaptures of animals marked in the streams before migration be used until it can be established why survival of juveniles obtained from sport or commercial fisheries might be affected.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Maryland and Virginia↗

Glimpses of East Antarctica: Aeromagnetic and satellite magnetic view from the central Transantarctic Mountains of East Antarctica

Aeromagnetic and satellite magnetic data provide glimpses of the crustal architecture within the Ross Sea sector of the enigmatic, ice-covered East Antarctic shield critical for understanding both global tectonic and climate history. In the central Transantarctic Mountains (CTAM), exposures of Precambrian basement, coupled with new high-resolution magnetic data, other recent aeromagnetic transects, and satellite magnetic and seismic tomography data, show that the shield in this region comprises an Archean craton modified both by Proterozoic magmatism and early Paleozoic orogenic basement reactivation. CTAM basement structures linked to the Ross Orogeny are imaged 50–100 km farther west than previously mapped, bounded by inboard upper crustal Proterozoic granites of the Nimrod igneous province. Magnetic contrasts between craton and rift margin sediments define the Neoproterozoic rift margin, likely reactivated during Ross orogenesis and Jurassic extension. Interpretation of satellite magnetic and aeromagnetic patterns suggests that the Neoproterozoic rift margin of East Antarctica is offset by transfer zones to form a stepwise series of salients tracing from the CTAM northward through the western margin of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin to the coast at Terre Adélie. Thinned Precambrian crust inferred to lie east of the rift margin cannot be imaged magnetically because of modification by Neoproterozoic and younger tectonic events.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Factors contributing to the formation of ferromanganese nodules in Oneida Lake, New York

Oneida Lake is a large, shallow, eutrophic lake situated in the Ontario lowlands of central New York State. It contains the most concentrated deposit of freshwater ferromanganese nodules (in terms of amount per unit area) yet reported in the literature. The mineralogy and bulk chemistry of these saucer-shaped nodules are similar to the mineralogy and bulk chemistry of deep-sea ferromanganese nodules, but the nodules in Oneida Lake contain considerably lower concentrations of trace metals, especially cobalt, nickel, and copper. Budgets for iron and manganese in waters from Oneida Lake and its tributaries indicate that approximately 122 t (metric tons) of iron and 23 t of manganese are lost each year from the lake waters, presumably by incorporation into sediments and ferromanganese nodules. Estimates based on nodule abundance and age of the lake suggest that iron and manganese are being incorporated into ferromanganese nodules at rates of 13 and 22 t/yr, respectively. Most iron lost from the lake waters is apparently incorporated into sediments, which contain an average of 10 times more iron than manganese. Most manganese lost from the lake waters is apparently incorporated into ferromanganese nodules, which contain an average of 1.7 times more manganese than iron. In Oneida Lake, very high rates of phytoplankton productivity, combined with almost continuous wind mixing to the bottom, provide high-pH and high-Eh conditions in most of the lake. Algae also provide an effective means of concentrating and transporting iron and manganese and thereby aid in the extensive development of ferromanganese nodule deposits.

New York↗

Fleet dynamics of the commercial lake trout fishery in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929-1961

Understanding fishing fleet dynamics is important when using fishery dependent data to infer the status of fish stocks. We analyzed data from mandatory catch reports from the commercial lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) fishery in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929–1961, a period when lake trout populations collapsed through the combined effects of overfishing and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) predation. The number of full-time fishermen increased during 1933–1943 and then decreased during 1943–1957. Addition of new fishermen was related to past yield, market prices, World War II draft exemptions, and lost fishing opportunities in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. Loss of existing fishermen was related to declining lake trout density. Large mesh (≥ 114-mm stretch-measure) gill net effort increased during 1929–1951 because fishermen fished more net inshore as lake trout density declined, even though catch per effort (CPE) was often higher in deeper waters. The most common gill net mesh size increased from 114-mm to 120-mm stretch-measure during 1929–1957, as lake trout growth increased. More effort was fished inshore than offshore and the amount of inshore effort was less variable over time than offshore effort. Relatively stable yield was maintained by increasing gill net effort and by moving some effort to better grounds. Because fishing-up caused yield and CPE to remain high despite declining lake trout abundance, caution must be used when basing goals for lake trout restoration on historical fishery indices.

Michigan↗

Ground surface deformation patterns, magma supply, and magma storage at Okmok volcano, Alaska, from InSAR analysis: 2. Coeruptive deflation, July-August 2008

A hydrovolcanic eruption near Cone D on the floor of Okmok caldera, Alaska, began on 12 July 2008 and continued until late August 2008. The eruption was preceded by inflation of a magma reservoir located beneath the center of the caldera and ∼3 km below sea level (bsl), which began immediately after Okmok's previous eruption in 1997. In this paper we use data from several radar satellites and advanced interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques to produce a suite of 2008 coeruption deformation maps. Most of the surface deformation that occurred during the eruption is explained by deflation of a Mogi-type source located beneath the center of the caldera and 2–3 km bsl, i.e., essentially the same source that inflated prior to the eruption. During the eruption the reservoir deflated at a rate that decreased exponentially with time with a 1/ e time constant of ∼13 days. We envision a sponge-like network of interconnected fractures and melt bodies that in aggregate constitute a complex magma storage zone beneath Okmok caldera. The rate at which the reservoir deflates during an eruption may be controlled by the diminishing pressure difference between the reservoir and surface. A similar mechanism might explain the tendency for reservoir inflation to slow as an eruption approaches until the pressure difference between a deep magma production zone and the reservoir is great enough to drive an intrusion or eruption along the caldera ring-fracture system.

Alaska↗

Interseismic uplift at the Nankai subduction zone, southwest Japan, 1951–1990

Uplift as a function of time from 1951 through 1990 has been deduced from annual mean sea level measured at 15 tide gages along the Nankai subduction zone, southwest Japan. The recurrence interval for rupture of the Nankai subduction zone is about 100 years, and the most recent rupture was in late 1946. Thus the 1951–1990 uplift record covers most of the first half of the earthquake cycle. The precision of the uplift record is better than could be obtained currently by annual Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. The pre‐1960 uplift record shows rapid deformation that appears to terminate in 1959. After 1959 the uplift record is remarkably linear in time: Significant curvature in the uplift‐versus‐time plots is detected at only three of the 15 tide gages. The inferred uplift rates are not quantitatively consistent with the predictions of either the viscoelastic coupling or elastic half‐space models of subduction, but the agreement is sufficient to suggest that the causative physical mechanisms have been identified. The immediate postseismic response is controlled by the propagation of slip downward along the downdip extension of the coseismic rupture, and the interseismic response is caused by the accumulation of a slip deficit on the main thrust zone. Asthenosphere relaxation is not required to explain the observations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗