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A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Functional response of ungulate browsers in disturbed eastern hemlock forests

Ungulate browsing in predator depleted North American landscapes is believed to be causing widespread tree recruitment failures. However, canopy disturbances and variations in ungulate densities are sources of heterogeneity that can buffer ecosystems against herbivory. Relatively little is known about the functional response (the rate of consumption in relation to food availability) of ungulates in eastern temperate forests, and therefore how “top down” control of vegetation may vary with disturbance type, intensity, and timing. This knowledge gap is relevant in the Northeastern United States today with the recent arrival of hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae ) that is killing eastern hemlocks ( Tsuga canadensis ) and initiating salvage logging as a management response. We used an existing experiment in central New England begun in 2005, which simulated severe adelgid infestation and intensive logging of intact hemlock forest, to examine the functional response of combined moose ( Alces americanus ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) foraging in two different time periods after disturbance (3 and 7 years). We predicted that browsing impacts would be linear or accelerating (Type I or Type III response) in year 3 when regenerating stem densities were relatively low and decelerating (Type II response) in year 7 when stem densities increased. We sampled and compared woody regeneration and browsing among logged and simulated insect attack treatments and two intact controls (hemlock and hardwood forest) in 2008 and again in 2012. We then used AIC model selection to compare the three major functional response models (Types I, II, and III) of ungulate browsing in relation to forage density. We also examined relative use of the different stand types by comparing pellet group density and remote camera images. In 2008, total and proportional browse consumption increased with stem density, and peaked in logged plots, revealing a Type I response. In 2012, stem densities were greatest in girdled plots, but proportional browse consumption was highest at intermediate stem densities in logged plots, exhibiting a Type III (rather than a Type II) functional response. Our results revealed shifting top–down control by herbivores at different stages of stand recovery after disturbance and in different understory conditions resulting from logging vs. simulated adelgid attack. If forest managers wish to promote tree regeneration in hemlock stands that is more resistant to ungulate browsers, leaving HWA-infested stands unmanaged may be a better option than preemptively logging them.

Massachusetts↗

Pollinator communities vary with vegetation structure and time since management within regenerating timber harvests of the Central Appalachian Mountains

Native pollinator populations across the United States are increasingly threatened by a multitude of ecological stressors. Although the drivers behind pollinator population declines are varied, habitat loss/degradation remains one of the most important threats. Forested landscapes, where the impacts of habitat loss/degradation are minimized, are known to support robust pollinator populations in eastern North America. Within heavily forested landscapes, timber management is already implemented as a means for improving forest health and enhancing wildlife habitat, however, little is known regarding the characteristics within regenerating timber harvests that affect forest pollinator populations. In 2018-19, we monitored insect pollinators in 143 regenerating (≤ 9 growing seasons post-harvest) timber harvest sites across Pennsylvania. During 1,129 survey events, we observed over 9,100 bees and butterflies, 220 blooming plant taxa, and collected over 2,200 pollinator specimens. Bee and butterfly abundance were positively associated with season-wide floral abundance and negatively associated with dense vegetation that inhibits the growth of understory floral resources. Particularly in late summer, few pollinators were observed in stands > 6 years post-harvest, with models predicting five times more bees in 1-year-old harvests than in 9-year-old harvests. Pollinator species diversity was positively associated with floral diversity and percent forb cover, and negatively associated with percent tall (>1m) sapling cover. These results suggest that regenerating timber harvests promote abundant and diverse pollinator communities in the Appalachian Mountains, though pollinator abundance declined quickly as woody stems regenerated. Ultimately, our findings contribute to a growing body of literature suggesting that dynamic forest management producing an even mix of age classes would benefit forest pollinator populations in the Central Appalachian Mountains.

Pennsylvania↗

Pathways of productivity and influences on top consumers in forested streams

Forested stream ecosystems involve complex physical and biotic pathways that can influence fish in numerous ways. Consequently, the responses of fish communities to disturbance can be difficult to understand. In this study, we employed a food web model that links biotic (e.g., physiology, predator–prey interactions) and abiotic (e.g., temperature, sunlight) attributes to address fish responses to changes in stream-riparian ecosystems. We modeled responses to food web dynamics in four streams, using scenarios that included responses to riparian disturbance, climate change, and shifts in top consumers. The two consumers we focused on were coastal cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) and sculpin ( Cottus spp., collectively treated as a functional group) . We found the responses to environmental changes varied by fish species and among streams, and that responses were not independent due to exploitative interspecific competition. Simulations based on long-term data indicated that coastal cutthroat trout were responsive to changes in allochthonous resources including terrestrial detritus and invertebrates, whereas sculpin were more responsive to changes to autochthonous resources that included, periphyton and aquatic invertebrates. These results may be, in part, a consequence of species-specific foraging behavior. Trout have a higher propensity to drift feed and therefore receive a substantial subsidy from terrestrial invertebrates, whereas sculpin feed mostly on aquatic insects on the streambed. Simulations of changes in summer temperature and stream discharge suggest decreased biomass of both fish species because of physiological constraints on invertebrate prey which reduce fish foraging opportunities. Exploitative competition also may be important in fish responses: when one fish taxon was removed, the other showed increased biomass. Although the pattern of simulation results was consistent across the four streams, the magnitude of change varied among streams. Streams with food webs fueled by multiple energy sources may be more resilient to changes to riparian forests and climate. Through application of a systems model, we gained insights into pathways of productivity for fish in forested stream ecosystems that provide understanding of processes that influence fish and streams, as well as implications for management of both.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Prescribed fire and other fuel-reduction treatments alter ground spider assemblages in a Southern Appalachian hardwood forest

Prescribed burns and understory thinnings are forest management practices aimed at reducing fuel loads to lessen wildfire threat in the Southern Appalachians, USA. Spiders play a critical role in forest ecosystems by controlling insect populations and providing an important food source for vertebrates. We used pitfall and colored pan traps to investigate how abundance, species richness, and diversity of spiders differed among three fuel reduction treatments administered repeatedly over a 15-year period and untreated controls. Additionally, we examined how spiders responded to one round (before and after) of fuel reduction treatments. We established treatments within the 15-year period as follows: mechanical understory removal (twice; M), prescribed burning (four times; B), mechanical understory removal followed one year later by high-severity prescribed burns and three subsequent burns (MB), and untreated controls (C). Our study period (2014–2016) occurred after multiple prescribed burns and two rounds of mechanical understory removal had occurred. Salticidae and Lycosidae were the two most commonly collected spider families in Southern Appalachian hardwood forests. Generally, we found increased spider abundances within all fuel-reduction treatments compared to controls. Individual spider families and species showed variable responses to treatments, but abundance of several spider families was greater in one or more fuel-reduction treatments than in controls. Additionally, abundance of several spider families and hunting/web building guilds (webs built for hunting purposes or defense) exhibited yearly differences to the last round of fuel-reduction treatments. Overall, our results suggest that changes in the overstory and understory of a forest are important drivers of regional spider abundance and assemblages, and forest management practices that modify forest structure can dramatically alter spider abundance and richness, usually in a positive manner.

North Carolina↗

Bioaccumulation of the pesticide imidacloprid in stream organisms and sublethal effects on salamanders

Neonicotinoids are one of the most widely used classes of insecticides in the world. The neonicotinoid imidacloprid is commonly applied to hemlock ( Tsuga spp.) stands in eastern North America to reduce tree mortality from infestations of the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae ). While laboratory and mesocosm studies have determined that imidacloprid can bioaccumulate in anurans and cause sublethal effects, no field studies have investigated whether salamanders or insects in streams adjacent to HWA treatments bioaccumulate imidacloprid or if sublethal effects are detectable in wild salamanders. We assessed relationships between imidacloprid exposure and stream salamander health in West Virginia, USA, using concentration of the stress hormone corticosterone and body condition indices (BCI) as response variables. Of 107 Desmognathus salamanders from 11 sites tested for bioaccumulation, we detected imidacloprid in 47 salamanders. Of 15 benthic macroinvertebrate samples tested, we detected imidacloprid, imidacloprid-urea, and imidacloprid-olefin in 15, 13, and 1 sample, respectively. Based on 115 Desmognathus salamanders sampled at 11 sites for stress hormone responses, corticosterone concentration increased with imidacloprid concentration in stream water. For 802 salamanders sampled at 48 sites, BCI decreased as concentration of imidacloprid in stream water increased, but explanatory power was low. Our study suggests that chronic leaching of imidacloprid from treated hemlock stands into adjacent streams has the potential to negatively affect aquatic organisms and may provide a route of exposure to higher trophic levels.

West Virginia↗

Plant phenolics and absorption features in vegetation reflectance spectra near 1.66 μm

Past laboratory and field studies have quantified phenolic substances in vegetative matter from reflectance measurements for understanding plant response to herbivores and insect predation. Past remote sensing studies on phenolics have evaluated crop quality and vegetation patterns caused by bedrock geology and associated variations in soil geochemistry. We examined spectra of pure phenolic compounds, common plant biochemical constituents, dry leaves, fresh leaves, and plant canopies for direct evidence of absorption features attributable to plant phenolics. Using spectral feature analysis with continuum removal, we observed that a narrow feature at 1.66 μm is persistent in spectra of manzanita, sumac, red maple, sugar maple, tea, and other species. This feature was consistent with absorption caused by aromatic C- H bonds in the chemical structure of phenolic compounds and non-hydroxylated aromatics. Because of overlapping absorption by water, the feature was weaker in fresh leaf and canopy spectra compared to dry leaf measurements. Simple linear regressions of feature depth and feature area with polyphenol concentration in tea resulted in high correlations and low errors (% phenol by dry weight) at the dry leaf ( r 2 = 0.95, RMSE = 1.0%, n = 56), fresh leaf ( r 2 = 0.79, RMSE = 2.1%, n = 56), and canopy ( r 2 = 0.78, RMSE = 1.0%, n = 13) levels of measurement. Spectra of leaves, needles, and canopies of big sagebrush and evergreens exhibited a weak absorption feature centered near 1.63 μm, short ward of the phenolic compounds, possibly consistent with terpenes. This study demonstrates that subtle variation in vegetation spectra in the shortwave infrared can directly indicate biochemical constituents and be used to quantify them. Phenolics are of lesser abundance compared to the major plant constituents but, nonetheless, have important plant functions and ecological significance. Additional research is needed to advance our understanding of the spectral influences of plant phenolics and terpenes relative to dominant leaf biochemistry (water, chlorophyll, protein/nitrogen, cellulose, and lignin).

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

Spatial and temporal patterns across an ecological boundary: Allochthonous effects of a young saltwater lake on a desert ecosystem

We documented changes in the abundance and composition of terrestrial flora and fauna with respect to distance from the sea edge and timing of large allochthonous inputs from the Salton Sea, California. We found significant effects that were most pronounced within 300 m of the shore, but extended 3 km inland via coyote scat deposition. The zone within 300 m of the sea had a higher density of vegetation with a distinctly different plant composition. The denser vegetation supported higher abundances of birds and reptiles. Coyotes exhibited spatial and temporal responses to marine subsidies of fish, while birds were likely subsidized by aquatic aerial insects. Top-down control, as well as dietary and habitat preferences, may have resulted in reduced number of ants, beetles, and small mammals near the sea. Species responses to the habitat edge appeared to be associated with life history, as the near shore habitat favored habitat generalists and shore specialists, while inland desert habitat favored many sand and open desert specialists. Ecosystem responses support current theories of allochthonous spatial subsidies and consumer-resource dynamics but were limited in scope, magnitude, and distance.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

Mixed responses of tenebrionid beetles to solar energy development in the Mojave Desert

Solar energy development causes land-use change and habitat alteration that may affect desert ecosystems. Tenebrionid beetles have evolved to exploit desert environments and heavily contribute to ecosystem functionality in aridlands, yet their species-specific, ecological responses to solar energy development are unknown. Our objective was to elucidate effects of solar energy development decisions at a solar power facility (392 MW) on a tenebrionid beetle community in the Mojave Desert. Seven years post-construction, we used pitfall traps to collect tenebrionid beetles for one month in treatments representing variably intense site preparation practices and conservation measures, including blading (i.e., bulldozing), mowing, and establishment of undeveloped patches in solar fields, replicated across three power blocks comprising the facility and in undeveloped control sites surrounding the facility. Blading caused significant, deleterious effects on tenebrionid beetle abundance, species richness, and diversity. Ordination revealed apparent overlap of non-bladed treatments and controls, suggesting that intermediate levels of disturbance from less intensive solar energy development decisions may serve to minimize negative effects of solar energy development on tenebrionid communities. Anepsius delicatulus and Triorophus laevis , the two most commonly collected tenebrionids, were significantly more abundant in non-bladed treatments in the solar facility than in undeveloped controls; thus, solar facilities with minimized disturbance to vegetation may provide preferred habitat for certain tenebrionid species. Our results demonstrate the value of understanding variable responses of insects to solar energy development decisions in deserts to inform real-world adaptive management of natural resources during the renewable energy transition.

California↗

Evolving radon diffusion through earthen barriers at uranium waste disposal sites

Field measurements of Rn-222 fluxes from the tops and bottoms of compacted clay radon barriers were used to calculate effective Rn diffusion coefficients (D Rn ) at four uranium waste disposal sites in the western United States to assess cover performance after more than 20 years of service. Values of D Rn ranged from 7.4 × 10 −7 to 6.0 × 10 −9 m 2 /s, averaging 1.42 × 10 −7 . Water saturation (S W ) from soil cores indicated that there was relatively little control of D Rn by S W , especially at higher moisture levels, in contrast to estimates from most steady-state diffusion models. This is attributed to preferential pathways intrinsic to construction of the barriers or to natural process that have developed over time including desiccation cracks, root channels, and insect burrows in the engineered earthen barriers. A modification to some models in which fast and slow pathway D Rn values are partitioned appears to give a good representation of the data; 4% of the fast pathway was needed to fit the data regression. For locations with high S w and highest D Rn (and fluxes) at each site, the proportion of fast pathway ranged from 1.7% to 34%, but for many locations with lower fluxes, little if any fast pathway was needed.

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity↗

Use of chemosensory cues as repellents for sea lamprey: Potential directions for population management

Sea lamprey invaded the Great Lakes in the early 20th century and caused an abrupt decline in the population densities of several native fish species. The integrated management of this invasive species is composed of chemical (lampricide) applications, low-head barrier dams, adult trapping and sterile male release. Recently, there has been an increased emphasis on the development of control methods alternative to lampricide applications. We propose as an alternative-control method the use of chemosensory cues as repellents for sea lamprey population management. Based on the available evidence at this time, we suggest that injury-released chemical alarm cues show promise as repellents for sea lamprey and further research should be directed at determining whether sea lamprey show an avoidance response to these types of chemosensory cues. From a management perspective, these chemosensory cues could be used to restrict sea lamprey access to spawning grounds. Repellents could also be used together with attractants like sex pheromones to manipulate sea lamprey behavior, similar to the "push-pull" strategies utilized with insect pests. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Comparative diets of subyearling Atlantic salmon and subyearling coho salmon in Lake Ontario tributaries

Restoration of Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) in Lake Ontario could potentially be negatively affected by the presence of non-native salmonids that are naturalized in the basin. Coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) have been spawning successfully in Lake Ontario tributaries for over 40 years and their juveniles will reside in streams with juvenile Atlantic salmon for one year. This study sought to examine interspecific diet associations between these species, and to compare diets to the composition of the benthos and drift in three Lake Ontario tributaries. Aquatic insects, mainly ephemeropterans and chironomids were the major prey consumed by subyearling Atlantic salmon whereas terrestrial invertebrates made up only 3.7% of the diet. Ephemeropterans and chironomids were the primary aquatic taxa consumed by subyearling coho salmon but, as a group, terrestrial invertebrates (41.8%) were the major prey. In sympatry, Atlantic salmon fed more actively from the benthos whereas the diet of coho salmon was more similar to the drift. The different feeding pattern of each species resulted in low interspecific diet similarity. There is likely little competition between these species for food in Lake Ontario tributaries as juveniles.

New York↗

Gut content analysis of Lake Michigan waterbirds in years with avian botulism type E mortality, 2010–2012

Waterbird die-offs caused by Clostridium botulinum neurotoxin type E (BoNT/E) have occurred sporadically in the Great Lakes since the late 1960s, with a recent pulse starting in the late 1990s. In recent die-offs, round gobies ( Neogobius melanostomus ) have been implicated as vectors for the transfer of BoNT/E to fish-eating birds due to the round goby invasion history and their importance as prey. Dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena spp.) are also potentially involved in BoNT/E transmission to birds and round gobies. We examined gut contents of waterbirds collected in Lake Michigan during die-offs in 2010–2012, and the gut contents of culled, presumably BoNT/E-free double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ). Round gobies were found in 86% of the BoNT/E-positive individuals, 84% of the BoNT/E-negative birds, and 94% of the BoNT/E-free cormorants examined. Double-crested cormorants, ring-billed gulls ( Larus delewarensis ), and common loons ( Gavia immer ) consumed larger-sized round gobies than horned and red-necked grebes ( Podiceps auritus and Podiceps grisegena ), white-winged scoters ( Melanitta deglandi ), and long-tailed ducks ( Clangula hymealis ). Other common prey included dreissenid mussels, terrestrial insects, and alewives ( Alosa pseudoharengus ). Our data emphasize the importance of round gobies and mussels in diets of Lake Michigan waterbirds and suggest they may play a role in the transfer of BoNT/E to waterbirds; however, round gobies and mussels were found in BoNT/E-positive, -negative, and -free individuals, suggesting that other factors, such as alternative trophic pathways for toxin transfer, bird migratory timing and feeding locations, prey behavior, and individual physiological differences across birds may affect the likelihood that a bird will succumb to BoNT/E intoxication.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Isotopic insights into biological regulation of zinc in contaminated systems

Aquatic organisms use a variety of biogeochemical reactions to regulate essential and non-essential trace metals. Many of these mechanisms can lead to isotopic fractionation, thus measurement of metal isotopes may yield insights into the processes by which organisms respond to metal exposure. We illustrate these concepts with two case studies, one involving an intra- and the other an extra-cellular mechanism of Zn sequestration. In the first study, the mayfly Neocloeon triangulifer was grown in the laboratory, and fed a diet of Zn-doped diatoms at Zn levels exceeding the requirements for normal mayfly life functions. The N. triangulifer larvae consumed the diatoms and retained their Zn isotopic signature. Upon metamorphosis, the subimago life stage lost Zn mass either in the exuvia or by excretion, and the Zn retained was isotopically enriched. Thus, Zn uptake is nonfractionating, but Zn regulation favors the lighter isotope. Thus the Zn remaining in the subimago was isotopically heavier. In the second study, Zn was adsorbed on the cell walls and exopolysaccharide secretions of cyanobacteria, which favored the heavier Zn isotope. Continued adsorption eventually resulted in nucleation and biomineralization of hydrozincite {Zn5(CO3)2(OH)6}. These case studies demonstrate the utility of Zn isotopes to provide insights into how aquatic insects respond to metal exposure.

Procedia Earth and Planetary Science↗

Late Quaternary paleoclimate of western Alaska inferred from fossil chironomids and its relation to vegetation histories

Fossil Chironomidae assemblages (with a few Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae) from Zagoskin and Burial Lakes in western Alaska provide quantitative reconstructions of mean July air temperatures for periods of the late-middle Wisconsin (~39,000-34,000 cal yr B.P.) to the present. Inferred temperatures are compared with previously analyzed pollen data from each site summarized here by indirect ordination. Paleotemperature trends reveal substantial differences in the timing of climatic warming following the late Wisconsin at each site, although chronological uncertainty exists. Zagoskin Lake shows early warming beginning at about 21,000 cal yr B.P., whereas warming at Burial Lake begins ~4000 years later. Summer climates during the last glacial maximum (LGM) were on average ~3.5C° below the modern temperatures at each site. Major shifts in vegetation occurred from ~19,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Zagoskin Lake and from ~17,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Burial Lake. Vegetation shifts followed climatic warming, when temperatures neared modern values. Both sites provide evidence of an early postglacial thermal maximum at ~12,300 cal yr B.P. These chironomid records, combined with other insect-based climatic reconstructions from Beringia, indicate that during the LGM: (1) greater continentality likely influenced regions adjacent to the Bering Land Bridge and (2) summer climates were, at times, not dominated by severe cold.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Monitoring gradual ecosystem change using Landsat time series analyses: case studies in selected forest and rangeland ecosystems

The focus of the study was to assess gradual changes occurring throughout a range of natural ecosystems using decadal Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM +) time series data. Time series data stacks were generated for four study areas: (1) a four scene area dominated by forest and rangeland ecosystems in the southwestern United States, (2) a sagebrush-dominated rangeland in Wyoming, (3) woodland adjacent to prairie in northwestern Nebraska, and (4) a forested area in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Through analyses of time series data, we found evidence of gradual systematic change in many of the natural vegetation communities in all four areas. Many of the conifer forests in the southwestern US are showing declines related to insects and drought, but very few are showing evidence of improving conditions or increased greenness. Sagebrush communities are showing decreases in greenness related to fire, mining, and probably drought, but very few of these communities are showing evidence of increased greenness or improving conditions. In Nebraska, forest communities are showing local expansion and increased canopy densification in the prairie–woodland interface, and in the White Mountains high elevation understory conifers are showing range increases towards lower elevations. The trends detected are not obvious through casual inspection of the Landsat images. Analyses of time series data using many scenes and covering multiple years are required in order to develop better impressions and representations of the changing ecosystem patterns and trends that are occurring. The approach described in this paper demonstrates that Landsat time series data can be used operationally for assessing gradual ecosystem change across large areas. Local knowledge and available ancillary data are required in order to fully understand the nature of these trends.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Modeling a historical mountain pine beetle outbreak using Landsat MSS and multiple lines of evidence

Mountain pine beetles are significant forest disturbance agents, capable of inducing widespread mortality in coniferous forests in western North America. Various remote sensing approaches have assessed the impacts of beetle outbreaks over the last two decades. However, few studies have addressed the impacts of historical mountain pine beetle outbreaks, including the 1970s event that impacted Glacier National Park. The lack of spatially explicit data on this disturbance represents both a major data gap and a critical research challenge in that wildfire has removed some of the evidence from the landscape. We utilized multiple lines of evidence to model forest canopy mortality as a proxy for outbreak severity. We incorporate historical aerial and landscape photos, aerial detection survey data, a nine-year collection of satellite imagery and abiotic data. This study presents a remote sensing based framework to (1) relate measurements of canopy mortality from fine-scale aerial photography to coarse-scale multispectral imagery and (2) classify the severity of mountain pine beetle affected areas using a temporal sequence of Landsat data and other landscape variables. We sampled canopy mortality in 261 plots from aerial photos and found that insect effects on mortality were evident in changes to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over time. We tested multiple spectral indices and found that a combination of NDVI and the green band resulted in the strongest model. We report a two-step process where we utilize a generalized least squares model to account for the large-scale variability in the data and a binary regression tree to describe the small-scale variability. The final model had a root mean square error estimate of 9.8% canopy mortality, a mean absolute error of 7.6% and an R 2 of 0.82. The results demonstrate that a model of percent canopy mortality as a continuous variable can be developed to identify a gradient of mountain pine beetle severity on the landscape.

Montana↗

Perspectives on monitoring gradual change across the continuity of Landsat sensors using time-series data

There are many types of changes occurring over the Earth's landscapes that can be detected and monitored using Landsat data. Here we focus on monitoring “within-state,” gradual changes in vegetation in contrast with traditional monitoring of “abrupt” land-cover conversions. Gradual changes result from a variety of processes, such as vegetation growth and succession, damage from insects and disease, responses to shifts in climate, and other factors. Despite the prevalence of gradual changes across the landscape, they are largely ignored by the remote sensing community. Gradual changes are best characterized and monitored using time-series analysis, and with the successful launch of Landsat 8 we now have appreciable data continuity that extends the Landsat legacy across the previous 43 years. In this study, we conducted three related analyses: (1) comparison of spectral values acquired by Landsats 7 and 8, separated by eight days, to ensure compatibility for time-series evaluation; (2) tracking of multitemporal signatures for different change processes across Landsat 5, 7, and 8 sensors using anniversary-date imagery; and (3) tracking the same type of processes using all available acquisitions. In this investigation, we found that data representing natural vegetation from Landsats 5, 7, and 8 were comparable and did not indicate a need for major modification prior to use for long-term monitoring. Analyses using anniversary-date imagery can be very effective for assessing long term patterns and trends occurring across the landscape, and are especially good for providing insights regarding trends related to long-term and continuous trends of growth or decline. We found that use of all available data provided a much more comprehensive level of understanding of the trends occurring, providing information about rate, duration, and intra- and inter-annual variability that could not be readily gleaned from the anniversary date analyses. We observed that using all available clear Landsat 5–8 observations with the new Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm was very effective for illuminating vegetation trends. There are a number of potential challenges for assessing gradual changes, including atmospheric impacts, algorithm development and visualization of the changes. One of the biggest challenges for studying gradual change will be the lack of appropriate data for validating results and products.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗