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Behavior patterns and fates of adult steelhead, Chinook salmon, and coho salmon released into the upper Cowlitz River Basin, 2005–09 and 2012, Washington

A multiyear radiotelemetry evaluation was conducted to monitor adult steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ), and coho salmon ( O. kisutch ) behavior and movement patterns in the upper Cowlitz River Basin. Volitional passage to this area was eliminated by dam construction in the mid-1960s, and a reintroduction program began in the mid-1990s. Fish are transported around the dams using a trap-and-haul program, and adult release sites are located in Lake Scanewa, the uppermost reservoir in the system, and in the Cowlitz and Cispus Rivers. Our goal was to estimate the proportion of tagged fish that fell back downstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam before the spawning period and to determine the proportion that were present in the Cowlitz and Cispus Rivers during the spawning period. Fallback is important because Cowlitz Falls Dam does not have upstream fish passage, so fish that pass the dam are unable to move back upstream and spawn. A total of 2,051 steelhead and salmon were tagged for the study, which was conducted during 2005–09 and 2012, and 173 (8.4 percent) of these regurgitated their transmitter prior to, or shortly after release. Once these fish were removed from the dataset, the final number of fish that was monitored totaled 1,878 fish, including 647 steelhead, 770 Chinook salmon, and 461 coho salmon. Hatchery-origin (HOR) and natural-origin (NOR) steelhead, Chinook salmon, and coho salmon behaved differently following release into Lake Scanewa. Detection records showed that the percentage of HOR fish that moved upstream and entered the Cowlitz River or Cispus River after release was relatively low (steelhead = 38 percent; Chinook salmon = 67 percent; coho salmon = 41 percent) compared to NOR fish (steelhead = 84 percent; Chinook salmon = 82 percent; coho salmon = 76 percent). The elapsed time from release to river entry was significantly lower for NOR fish than for HOR fish for all three species. Tagged fish entered the Cowlitz River in greater proportions than the Cispus River, regardless of origin. We found that 23–47 percent of the HOR fish entered the Cowlitz River and 12–38 percent entered the Cispus River. Similarly, 67–70 percent of the NOR fish entered the Cowlitz River and 38–66 percent entered the Cispus River. These behavioral differences translated into similar differences in fates during the spawning periods as higher percentages of tagged fish were assigned Cowlitz River fates than Cispus River fates. Fallback rates were affected by fish origin and release site. Overall, 12 percent of steelhead, 19 percent of Chinook salmon, and 8 percent of coho salmon fell back downstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam prior to spawning. Fallback rates were lower for fish that were released in the Cowlitz River or the Cispus River than for reservoir-released fish, but statistical comparisons were not robust because of small sample sizes at the river release sites. Fallback rates for fish released at the river release sites were 10 percent lower for steelhead, 4 percent lower for Chinook salmon, and 9 percent lower for coho salmon than for reservoir-released fish. However, fallback rates also were different between HOR and NOR fish. Fallback rates were significantly higher for HOR reservoir-released fish than for NOR reservoir-released fish. This study provided data that were insightful for understanding behavior and movement patterns in the upper Cowlitz River Basin and yielded estimates of fallback rates and fish fates that may be useful for fishery managers in the years to come. Studies from other systems have shown that factors such as prespawn mortality and fallback have resulted in substantial losses to spawning populations where trap-and-haul programs are being used as a restoration tool. Future research in the upper Cowlitz River Basin may use additional telemetry studies, genetic analyses, and spawning ground surveys to provide answers for new questions and to continue to monitor the progress of the reintroduction effort.

Washington

An assessment of arthropod prey resources at Nakula Natural Area Reserve, a potential site of reintroduction for Kiwikiu (Pseudonestor xanthophrys) and Maui `Alauahio (Parareomyza montana)

Hawaiian forest birds have declined dramatically since humans arrived in the archipelago. Birds from all foraging guilds have been affected but insectivorous species are currently at greatest risk of extinction. On the island of Maui, populations and ranges of the insectivorous kiwikiu (Maui parrotbill; Pseudonestor xanthophrys) and Maui ‘alauahio (Maui creeper; Paroreomyza montana) have declined significantly from historic levels primarily due to habitat loss, predation,disease, and food web disruption, leading to federal listings of endangered species and species of concern, respectively. Recovery plans for these birds include reestablishment of populations in parts of their former range. Nakula Natural Area Reserve on the leeward side of HaleakalāVolcano has been targeted for release of wild-caught or captive-bred individuals. The mesic, montane koa-‘ōhi‘a (Acacia koa-Metrosideros polymorpha) forest at Nakula has been heavily impacted through grazing by feral ungulates, but recent management actions to exclude these animals are promoting forest recovery. The objective of this study was to assess the arthropod prey base at Nakula in preparation for reintroductions of kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio. To accomplish that goal, we compared arthropod abundances at Nakula to those at Hanawi Natural Area Reserve and Waikamoi Preserve, areas where kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio are currently found. We also identified diets of kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio from fecal samples to better understand and evaluate the prey base at Nakula. Assessment methods included clipping branch tips to sample arthropods within the foliage of koa and ‘ōhi‘a, using traps to quantify arthropods on koa and ‘ōhi‘a bark surfaces, counting exit holes to quantify abundances of beetles (Coleoptera) within dead branches of koa, and measuring the density of arthropods within the stems of ‘ākala (Rubus hawaiiensis). The diet of kiwikiu was dominated by caterpillars (Lepidoptera larvae), which comprised 90% of all prey items for 50 adult birds and 98% of all prey for two nestlings. Caterpillars were also the most important prey for Maui ‘alauahio (43% for 104 adult birds) although spiders (Araneae, 16%), beetles (12%) and true bugs, planthoppers and psyllids (Hemiptera; 12%) were also important. Caterpillars were generally the most abundant type of arthropod in the foliage of koa and ‘ōhi‘a, although spiders, beetles and hemipterans were also common. Total arthropod biomass and caterpillar biomass at Nakula was as great, or greater, than that observed at Hanawi and Waikamoi per unit of foliage of both koa and ‘ōhi‘a. Spiders generally dominated the bark fauna on both koa and ‘ōhi‘a at all sites although isopods (Isopoda), millipedes (Myriapoda: Millipeda) and lacewings (Neuroptera) were also abundant at Waikamoi and Hanawi. Total arthropod biomass on bark, as well as the biomass of several individual taxa, was significantly lower at Nakula than the other sites. Our measurement of the density of beetle exit holes in dead koa branches found no difference between Nakula and Waikamoi. Finally, no difference existed in the abundance of arthropods (primarily caterpillars and moth pupae) within ‘ākala stems among sites. With the exception of bark surfaces, our results suggest that the arthropod prey base for birds on primary foraging substrates at Nakula is similar to that found at two sites within the current range of kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio. However, our results should be viewed with caution because they are limited to the scale of individual branch, tree, or ‘ākala stem. To complete the assessment, our results should be scaled up to the landscape level by determining the density of each substrate within each site. Key arthropod prey of kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio are available at Nakula and, as habitat restoration continues, food abundance should increase to the point at which populations of these birds can be supported.

Hawaii

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Great Smoky Mountains National Park vegetation mapping project

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program is an effort to classify, describe, and map existing vegetation communities in national park units throughout the United States. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Inventory and Monitoring Program and provides baseline vegetation information to natural resource managers, researchers, and ecologists. The U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, and NPS Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM, also referred to as the “Park”) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of GRSM, including the Foothills Parkway, for the NPS VMI Program. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to affirm vegetation types of GRSM and to determine how best to map the vegetation types by using aerial imagery. A vegetation classification developed in 2003 by NatureServe and the NPS served as a foundation to further classify and map the vegetation types of the Park. Data from an additional 10 vegetation plots supported vegetation types either rare or not documented in the 2003 classification. Data from 203 verification sites were collected to test the field key to vegetation types and the application of vegetation types to a sample set of map polygons. Furthermore, data from 972 accuracy assessment (AA) sites were collected (of which 966 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer). This GRSM vegetation mapping project identified 112 vegetation types consisting of 105 association types in the U.S. National Vegetation Classification (USNVC), 2 “park-special” types, 1 “map-special” type, and 4 cultural types in the USNVC. To map the vegetation and land cover of GRSM, 52 map classes were developed. Of these 52 map classes, 46 represent natural (including ruderal) vegetation types, most of which types are recognized in the USNVC. For the remaining 6 of the 52 map classes, 4 represent USNVC cultural types for agricultural and developed areas, and 2 represent non-USNVC types for nonvegetated open water and nonvegetated rock. Features were interpreted from viewing four-band digital aerial imagery using digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems; digital aerial imagery was collected during September 23–October 30, 2015. The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial-database layers usable in a geographic information system. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5- or 0.25- hectare (ha) minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type. A geodatabase containing several feature-class layers and tables provides the locations and data of USNVC vegetation types (vegetation map layer), vegetation plots, verification sites, AA sites, project boundary extent, and aerial image centers and flight lines. Covering 210,875 ha, the feature-class layer and related tables for the vegetation map layer provide 34,084 polygons of detailed attribute data when special modifiers are not considered (average polygon size of 6.2 ha) and 36,589 polygons of detailed attribute data when special modifiers are considered (average polygon size of 5.8 ha). Each map polygon is assigned a map-class code and name and, when applicable, are linked to USNVC classification tables within the geodatabase. The vegetation map extent includes the administrative boundary for GRSM and the Foothills Parkway. A summary report, generated from the vegetation map layer, concludes that the 46 map classes representing natural (including ruderal) vegetation types apply to 99.2% of polygons (33,797 polygons; average size of 6.2 ha) and cover 98.6% of the Park (207,971.4 ha). Further broken down, map classes representing natural vegetation types indicate that the Park is 97.7% forest and woodland (205,882.5 ha), 0.6% shrubland (1,174.6 ha), and 0.4% herbaceous (914.3 ha). Map classes representing cultural vegetation types apply to 0.8% of polygons (259 polygons; average size of 4.9 ha) and cover 0.6% of the Park (1,277.4 ha). Map classes representing nonvegetation open and flowing water and unvegetated rock apply to 0.08% of polygons (28 polygons; average size of 58.1 ha) and cover 0.8% of the Park (1,625.9 ha). A thematic AA study was completed of map classes representing the natural (including ruderal) vegetation types of the Park. Initial AA results were discussed with NPS staff from the Park. Following input from NPS staff on how to handle map classes that fell below accuracy standards, adjustments were made to the vegetation map layer. Final results indicate an overall accuracy of 80.64% (kappa index of 79.96% for chance agreements) based on data from 966 of the 972 AA sites. Most individual map-class themes exceed the NPS VMI Program standard of 80% with a 90% confidence interval. The GRSM vegetation mapping project delivers many geospatial and vegetation data products, including an in-depth project report discussing methods and results, which includes map classification and map-class descriptions. This suite of products also includes descriptions and a field key to vegetation types; a database of vegetation plots, verification sites, and AA sites; digital images of field sites; field data sheets; digital aerial imagery; hardcopy and digital maps; a geodatabase of vegetation and land cover (map layer), field sites (vegetation plots, verification sites, and AA sites), aerial imagery index, project boundary, and metadata; and a contingency table listing AA results. Geospatial products are projected in the Universal Transverse Mercator, Zone 17 North, by using the North American Datum of 1983. Information on the NPS VMI Program and completed mapping projects are on the internet at https://www.nps.gov/im/vegetation-inventory.htm.

North Carolina, Tennessee

Prefabricated Zero Ascend Omnispecies (ZAO) modular fish passage modules using advanced manufacturing techniques

The Zero Ascend Omnispecies (ZAO) fish passage attraction module “ZAO Attractor” is a novel system designed to facilitate upstream passage for a broad spectrum of fish species, with a particular focus on American shad and river herring (alewife and/or blueback herring). Combining the use of prefabricated, modular components with advanced manufacturing, the ZAO aims to provide a cost-effective and scalable solution for fish passage attractions across various hydropower sites. The system features a surface level entry, so fish do not need to climb. In addition, it is designed to be adjusted and repositioned to create the most effective attraction flows by managing the outflows from hydropower turbines. Budget Period 1 (BP1) focused on the design and modeling of the ZAO Attractor and demonstrated the engineering feasibility of a modular, prefabricated, hydrodynamically efficient structure with surface level entry and passage. During BP1, the hypothesis was that certain structural adaptations, such as the addition of long fins, could direct turbine outflows to create a desirable downstream flow. Simulations, however, were inconclusive, revealing the complex nature of fish preferences for hydraulic conditions. It was discovered that there were limited published studies on the direct correlation between quantified flow patterns and fish attraction, emphasizing the need for controlled studies to observe and measure these effects. In Budget Period 2 (BP2), controlled studies with live fish were prioritized to address these complexities. A partially scaled ZAO Attractor was evaluated in laboratory conditions using native river water to assess its capability to attract and guide fish. Despite challenges with flume flow conditions and the impact of flume dimensions on flow directionality and velocity, the studies provided insights into fish behavior and preferences, particularly the requirement for a consistent flow stream for migration cues. Adjustments to the fin structure demonstrated potential effectiveness in guiding fish toward the module. However, the hydraulic conditions within the flume environment did not accurately reflect typical in-river scenarios, therefore the results were inconclusive with respect to the optimal system configuration for in-river use. In the future, conducting comprehensive field studies can enhance understanding of the interactions between fish behavior and flow conditions created by the ZAO Attractor. Additionally, a design review is advised, particularly regarding the load scenarios throughout the seasons and positioning of the ZAO Attractor. These studies should continue to refine the design to achieve its intended benefits: economical and effective fish attraction and passage that can be adapted to specific site conditions while allowing for continued energy generation at sites up for re-licensure and adding hydropower generation to previously untapped resources in non-powered dams and new stream reaches. In conclusion, the ZAO fish passage attraction module presents a promising approach to fish passage at hydropower stations, with the potential to balance environmental concerns with renewable energy development. However, further field validation and optimization are necessary to ensure its effectiveness and practicality in real-world applications.

Final Technical Report

Spatial distribution, temporal variability, and chemistry of the salt wedge in the lower Charles River, Massachusetts, June 1998 to July 1999

The Charles River is of great recreational and ecological value to the Boston metropolitan region and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. It is also the focus of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Region I, Clean Charles 2005 Task Force. The main goal of the Task Force is to make the Charles River 'fishable and swimmable' by the year 2005. Achieving 'fishable and swimmable' conditions will require continued progress in addressing a range of environmental conditions now degrading water quality, including the infiltration of saltwater from Boston Harbor into the freshwater Charles River.To better understand the pattern of saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management (MADEM), and New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), collected data on the spatial distribution, temporal variability, and chemistry of the saltwater that entered the lower Charles River from June 1998 to July 1999. The purpose of this investigation is to extend and complement a regional-scale study of Charles River water quality conducted in 1996 (T. Faber, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, written commun., 1997), and the ongoing water monitoring activities of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) and the Charles River Watershed Association (CRWA). The data collected by this investigation supports the Clean Charles 2005 Task Force by providing detailed information concerning a major factor limiting 'fishable and swimmable' conditions in the lower Charles River. Finally, the study will be used to assist current planning efforts of the Metropolitan District Commission (MDC) to restore the historic parklands of the lower Charles River.The 'Basin' is the local term for the reach of the Charles River that begins at the Watertown Dam in Watertown, Mass., and extends about 8 mi through suburban and urban areas to Boston Harbor. Discharge to the harbor is controlled by the 'new' Charles River Dam in Boston (fig. 1). The Basin was created by construction of the 'old' Charles River Dam in 1908 to solve Boston's sanitary problems. Prior to the building of the old Charles River Dam, the lower Charles River was a tidal estuary in which the water levels rose and fell twice daily with the tidal cycle. Low tide would expose untreated sewage that was discharged directly into the river. Exposed sewage created noxious odors and served as a breeding ground for mosquitoes that caused sporadic epidemics of malaria and yellow fever (Jobin, 1998). Damming of the river interrupted the normal tidal cycle and flooded the estuary by creating a freshwater pool (the Basin) that had a constant water elevation of about 0.8 meters (m) above mean sea level. Flooding of the estuary initially improved sanitary conditions and the Basin became a source of enjoyment for the local population and the focus of a large waterfront park in Boston and Cambridge (Jobin, 1998).Although the infiltration of saltwater from the harbor into the Basin was anticipated when the old Charles River Dam was built, neither the magnitude nor the consequences of the infiltration was considered. By 1975, the Metropolitan District Commission (MDC) determined that harbor water covered about 80 percent of the river bottom within the Basin and composed about 50 percent of its depth. The MDC also concluded that fish kills and odors in the spring of 1975 were likely the result of the sulfide-rich saltwater mixing with the overlying freshwater (Metropolitan District Commission, 1975).Saltwater from Boston Harbor that enters the Basin is known as the 'salt wedge' because of the shape it assumes as it moves upstream. Freshwater discharge from upstream pushes against the intruding harbor water until the density differences cause stratification to occur; the freshwater then overrides the denser harbor water (Fischer and others, 1979). The depth from

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report

Waterfowl and their wintering grounds in Mexico, 1937-64

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has been interested in migratory birds, especially waterfowl, in Mexico for many years, An early period of cooperation in waterfowl administration was culminated in 1937 with the final ratification of the Convention Between the United States and the United Mexican States for the Protection of Migratory Birds and Game Mammals, usually referred to as the Migratory Bird Treat. Management of waterfowl on this continent is primarily carried out by hunting regulations. Current information on the status of each species must be obtained each year to serve as a basis for any needed modifications in the regulations. In the United States and Canada, wildlife biologists of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service annually make the surveys to obtain this basic information. But the Government of Mexico has made no comparable surveys. Mexicans are not interested in hunting waterfowl to the extent that citizens of the United States and Canada are. As a consequence, Mexico's Department of Game emphasizes activities other than waterfowl management. Waterfowl, especially ducks, winter in or migrate through Mexico in large numbers, so it is obvious that and continental surveys of the winter population should include Mexico. Some general investigations of waterfowl distribution there were made in 1926 and earlier by E. A. Goldman. He was familiar with much of Mexico because he and E. W. Nelson studied mammals and biota there for many years. In the 1930's, because of the greater emphasis on waterfowl conservation and management, more detailed surveys were made of the continental breeding and wintering populations. One of these activities was designated as the midwinter, or January, inventory. In the early 1940's the senior author, who had been the Central Flyaway Biologist since 1937, recommended that the waterfowl wintering grounds in Mexico be included in the coverage of the midwinter waterfowl inventory. This was arranged in 1947, and the first aerial coverage, which only included coastal localities, was made in January-February of that year. The information obtained confirmed the value and advisability of including the Mexican wintering grounds in the annual survey; beginning in 1951 the wintering grounds in the Mexican highlands also were included. The surveys of Mexico were continued, except in 1957, through 1965; after 1965 they were greatly reduced. Ground reconnaissance and surveys had begun in Mexico with the preliminary work of Goldman in 1926, but quantitative studies were not started until 1937. The ground surveys continued at intervals in various parts of the Republic until 1960. Ground surveys are invaluable for such purposes as securing ecological information, specimens of birds and plants, and historical data about the areas from local residents, but the only satisfactory method of obtaining accurate quantitative information on waterfowl populations and their distribution is by airplane. Consequently, the major emphasis since 1947 has been on the annual aerial surveys. Ground studies were made much less frequently and were carried out mainly to obtain correlative information on the waterfowl foods available, the ecology of habitats, and for liaison with wildlife officials and biologists in Mexico. An important reason for the surveys of the waterfowl wintering grounds in Mexico was to determine their adequacy for the population of birds using them, and their potential to accommodate additional waterfowl if the wintering grounds in the United States became inadequate and larger flights entered Mexico. Other advantages included providing accurate information to hunters and other interested persons in the United States regarding the waterfowl shooting in Mexico, and determining the current status of these birds and their habitats in that country. Some of these findings were previously summarized by us (Saunders and Saunders 1949; Saunders 1964).

Resource Publication

Results of a modeling workshop concerning preservation and protection of wetlands in North Dakota

In a recently signed letter, the Governor of North Dakota and the Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Fish and Wildlife and Parks charged a joint state-federal study group with examination of two separate questions: 1) mitigation for the Garrison Diversion Project; and 2) planning for long-range protection and preservation of fish and wildlife habitat in North Dakota. The cochair for this study group (the Secretary of the Interior's Field Representative, Denver, Colorado, and the Natural Resources Coordinator for North Dakota) further articulated the charge concerning the second of these two questions to include three steps: 1) development of a general plan for preservation and protection of migratory waterfowl and their associated wetland habitat; 2) a comprehensive analysis of alternative strategies, including opportunities and constraints, for achieving the goals articulated in Step 1; and 3) design of a coordinated state-federal public information program to assist in plan implementation. In order to obtain input from a variety of interests, the joint study group initiated step 2 activities with a five-day workshop in Bismarck, N. D.; December 8-12, 1980. The objectives of the workshop were: 1) to identify alternative strategies for preserving and enhancing waterfowl production habitat in North Dakota; 2) to identify opportunities and constraints associated with those alternatives; and 3) to promote communication and understanding of the implications of those alternatives for all affected parties. To achieve these objectives, the workshop utilized a group of concepts and techniques collectively known as Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA). Developed by Dr. C. S. Holling and his co-workers at the University of British Columbia, the AEA process involves planners, managers, scientists, and other interested parties in a structures atmosphere whose focus is the construction and examination of a computerized simulation model of the resource system under consideration. The modeling process is used to promote communication, identify pertinent issues, identify key data gaps and uncertainties, direct research efforts to fill those gaps, and explore the possible consequences of various management alternatives. The workshop, which was facilitated by the AEA Group of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), was attended by approximately 25 invited participants representing a variety of interests concerned with the wetlands protection issue in North Dakota. During the week workshop participants conceptualized and constructed a computerized simulation model incorporating many of the hydrologic, agricultural, and wildlife aspects of the wetlands issue. During the process of constructing this model and examining its behavior, participants identified several interesting alternative strategies that may prove useful in an overall wetland protection program, along with a variety of constraints associated with each. Perhaps the most interesting of these alternatives revolve around the idea that there may be a variety of cases in which water can be retained on the land, with concommitant benefits both for wildlife and flood control, without detriment to agricultural productivity. Examples of this kind of activity include flooding of previously drained Type I wetlands in summer fallow areas, installation of smaller drains in Type I and III wetlands to reduce the rate at which water runs off in the spring, and use of strategically located gates in drainage channels associated with the state highway system to slow runoff and create wetland habitat. Several other alternatives discussed at the workshop are related to the notion of using available, uncommitted water supplied to enhance or create wetlands. Several cases were cited in which more certain water supplies would be useful in increasing waterfowl production or reducing disease problems, especially in dry years. Water for such purposes might come from a variety of current of proposed water development projects, both large and small scale. Finally, the potential for re-establishment of "unsuccessfully" drained (i.e., not consistently usable for agricultural purposes) wetlands was discussed at some length. There are apparently substantial acreages of such wetlands in North Dakota and a program to acquire and rehabilitate them might be of considerable utility. The workshop was thus successful in accomplishing its first two objectives--identification of alternative strategies, opportunities, and constraints. However, it would be naive to suppose that any of the alternatives discussed offers a complete, simple solution to the wetlands issue in North Dakota. The most important result of the workshop may therefore be that which was accomplished relative to the third objective--promotion of communication and understanding. It was gratifying and encouraging to see the spirit of communication and cooperation that developed by the end of the workshop. The fact that representatives of many of the interests concerned with the wetlands issue participated in an open exchange of ideas and information marks an important step forward. We believe that it is imperative that this cooperative attitude be maintained, and that there are a variety of ways in which this might be accomplished. Perhaps the simplest would be a small-scale pilot project and research effort to determine the effects of wetland maintenance on summer fallow areas. Such a research program would provide not only useful information, but an opportunity for many of the affected interests to begin working toward mutually acceptable solutions to the overall wetlands issue.

North Dakota

Statewide analysis of the drainage-area ratio method for 34 streamflow percentile ranges in Texas

The drainage-area ratio method commonly is used to estimate streamflow for sites where no streamflow data are available using data from one or more nearby streamflow-gaging stations. The method is intuitive and straightforward to implement and is in widespread use by analysts and managers of surface-water resources. The method equates the ratio of streamflow at two stream locations to the ratio of the respective drainage areas. In practice, unity often is assumed as the exponent on the drainage-area ratio, and unity also is assumed as a multiplicative bias correction. These two assumptions are evaluated in this investigation through statewide analysis of daily mean streamflow in Texas. The investigation was made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. More than 7.8 million values of daily mean streamflow for 712 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas were analyzed. To account for the influence of streamflow probability on the drainage-area ratio method, 34 percentile ranges were considered. The 34 ranges are the 4 quartiles (0-25, 25-50, 50-75, and 75-100 percent), the 5 intervals of the lower tail of the streamflow distribution (0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, and 4-5 percent), the 20 quintiles of the 4 quartiles (0-5, 5-10, 10-15, 15-20, 20-25, 25-30, 30-35, 35-40, 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70, 70-75, 75-80, 80-85, 85-90, 90-95, and 95-100 percent), and the 5 intervals of the upper tail of the streamflow distribution (95-96, 96-97, 97-98, 98-99 and 99-100 percent). For each of the 253,116 (712X711/2) unique pairings of stations and for each of the 34 percentile ranges, the concurrent daily mean streamflow values available for the two stations provided for station-pair application of the drainage-area ratio method. For each station pair, specific statistical summarization (median, mean, and standard deviation) of both the exponent and bias-correction components of the drainage-area ratio method were computed. Statewide statistics (median, mean, and standard deviation) of the station-pair specific statistics subsequently were computed and are tabulated herein. A separate analysis considered conditioning station pairs to those stations within 100 miles of each other and with the absolute value of the logarithm (base-10) of the ratio of the drainage areas greater than or equal to 0.25. Statewide statistics of the conditional station-pair specific statistics were computed and are tabulated. The conditional analysis is preferable because of the anticipation that small separation distances reflect similar hydrologic conditions and the observation of large variation in exponent estimates for similar-sized drainage areas. The conditional analysis determined that the exponent is about 0.89 for streamflow percentiles from 0 to about 50 percent, is about 0.92 for percentiles from about 50 to about 65 percent, and is about 0.93 for percentiles from about 65 to about 85 percent. The exponent decreases rapidly to about 0.70 for percentiles nearing 100 percent. The computation of the bias-correction factor is sensitive to the range analysis interval (range of streamflow percentile); however, evidence suggests that in practice the drainage-area method can be considered unbiased. Finally, for general application, suggested values of the exponent are tabulated for 54 percentiles of daily mean streamflow in Texas; when these values are used, the bias correction is unity.

Scientific Investigations Report

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia

Upper Auglaize watershed AGNPS modeling project

The Upper Auglaize Watershed agricultural non-point source modeling project was an interagency effort to use a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling approach for assessing and reducing pollution from agricultural runoff and other non-point sources. This project applied the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service’s AGricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) suite of models to the Upper Auglaize River Watershed, a major watershed within the Maumee River Basin. This modeling project was conducted by an interagency team consisting of a partnership between the: (1) USDA, Agricultural Research Service (ARS); (2) USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS); (3) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE); (4) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); (5) Ohio State University; (6) University of Toledo (UT); (7) Heidelberg College; (8) Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), Division of Soil and Water Conservation; (9) Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA); and (10) Allen, Auglaize, Van Wert, and Putnam Soil and Water Conservation Districts. The partnership was the first step in a process to eventually apply the model in a portioned subset of watersheds for the Maumee Basin, and then to link them to form a comprehensive basin-wide model This work was performed under the authority of Section 516(e) of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) of 1996, as amended, for the purpose of assisting State and local watershed managers with their evaluation, prioritization and implementation of alternatives for soil conservation, sediment trapping and non-point source pollution prevention in the Upper Auglaize River watershed. The project team, working in a cooperative effort, used the models to determine sediment sources, contributing locations, and the effect of application of best management practices (BMPs) on rates of sediment delivery to the mouth of the watershed. The results will be used to guide conservation incentive and land treatment programs. The team relied heavily on Geographic Information System (GIS)-based applications to expedite the application of the model. The results of the analysis demonstrated that the application of BMPs would have a positive effect on reducing the loadings of sediment leaving the mouth of the Upper Auglaize Watershed. An application of 17 percent new no-till acres and eight percent new grassland acres, when randomly applied to the watershed, reduced loadings at the mouth to 82 percent of the simulated existing condition loadings. No-till, conversion of cropland to grassland, other uses including grass buffers, and reforestation of parts of the watershed, were all shown by the model to have a measurable effect on reducing sediment loads. Conversion of all of the cropland in the watershed to no-till would reduce the average unit load (tons of sediment per acre) leaving the mouth of the watershed to a level that is 42 percent of the simulated existing condition load. Ephemeral gullies were found to be the primary source of erosion (72 percent), sediment yield (73 percent), and sediment loading (73 percent). Controlling sediment load means controlling gully erosion and possibly trapping sediment yield before it reaches the stream system. Most BMPs (e.g., no-till, conversion of cropland, etc.) that reduce sheet and rill erosion and its sediment yield will also reduce gully erosion and its sediment yield. However, grassed waterways, which have no effect on sheet and rill erosion, are frequently an effective BMP to prevent ephemeral gullies. And, of course, riparian vegetation and sediment traps would reduce the delivery ratios of all types of landscape erosion. New techniques were developed by the team to quantify the ephemeral gully erosion within the model. When calibrated to available stream gage data the model suggests that more (73% in the existing condition simulation) of the sediment load originates from ephemeral gully erosion than from traditional sheet and rill erosion. The model quantified the value of tile drainage in reducing the sediment load from the watershed. Loadings under drained conditions were always less than loadings under undrained conditions for otherwise identical land uses. The average sediment load of all alternatives for drained loadings was 89.2 percent of the load for the corresponding undrained loadings. The model established that while many conservation incentive programs treat tile drainage as a production practice, significant erosion and sediment control benefits are provided by the practice in comparison to cultivation in an undrained state.

Ohio

Impacts of grade control structure installations on hydrology and sediment transport as an adaptive management strategy

The goal of this research was to examine the impacts of Grade Control Structure (GCS) installations at the Heard Scout Pueblo (HSP) study site in the City of Phoenix, Arizona, USA. The study site is around a high-use trail system and is comprised of eroded and incised channels that conduct high flows and associated sediments into a residential neighborhood downstream, a noted stormwater control problem. We established baseline conditions associated with rainfall/runoff response before structures were installed so we could have some data for comparison afterwards. Innovative monitoring equipment, including video cameras and pressure transducers (to calculate discharge); digital terrain models, sediment samplers and sediment chains (to measure erosion and deposition); soil moisture sensors in monitoring wells (to document infiltration and potential recharge); and weather stations (to track temperature and relative humidity) were established and a small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) survey was completed by July, 11, 2017, in time for the typical summer monsoon season which officially runs from June 15th to September 30th. Only one pre-GCS installation rain event incurred a significant flow event (October 13, 2018). Natural Channel Design (NCD), a landscape restoration company with decades of experience, was hired through a competitive bid process to develop a novel layout of ~30 GCS installations (sills, modified one-rock dams (ORD), and plugs, as well as a modified Zuni-bowl). The American Conservation Experience (ACE) hand-built the structures based on these designs in the main channel from November 13, 2018 through December 1, 2018. ACE built another ten structures in locations adjacent to the channel from January 15 through January 18, 2019. NCD worked with the landscape forensics to identify a historic channel and reinstate it using GCS. A surface-water model was also applied, using some of the baseline measurements (terrain and hydraulic conductivity) to track the flows of water and potential infiltration associated with rainfall events before GCS installation, to assist NCD in their design. The same model was applied using the installed GCS locations to simulate impacts of the structures on flow and infiltration. Our model was able to predict the slight reduction and delay in peak flows for small events and simulate infiltration, which was measured and occurred in the channel. Results demonstrated that structures could increase infiltration by ~15% over time. More data describing geomorphology and hydrology after repeated rainfall events will allow for increased analyses. Innovative monitoring, including the large‐scale particle image velocimetry (LSPIV) were invaluable to this research. Given the arid-land location and added drought conditions, the water levels were not high enough to compute, even using the continuous slope-area method, so discharge was calculated solely using the LSPIV. The careful redundancy of data acquisition is extremely important when studying dryland hydrology. Weather data indicated that the HSP GCS installations created roughly a three-degree microclimate cooling effect for at least two days following rainfall events, as compared with the untreated channel. The cooling was attributed to increased moisture, evaporation, and latent heat expulsion from the evaporation.

Arizona

Magnitude and frequency of floods for rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2017—Results

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are an important part of the framework for hydraulic-structure design and flood-plain management in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Annual peak flows measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages are used to compute flood‑frequency estimates at those streamgages. However, flood‑frequency estimates also are needed at ungaged stream locations. A process known as regionalization was used to develop regression equations to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged locations. A multistate approach was used to update estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Annual peak-flow data through September 2017 were analyzed for 965 streamgages with 10 or more years of data on rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. Flood‑frequency estimates of the 50‑, 20‑, 10‑, 4‑, 2‑, 1‑, 0.5‑, and 0.2‑percent annual exceedance probability streamflows, which correspond to flood-recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively, were computed for the 965 streamgages following national guidelines. As part of the computation of flood‑frequency estimates for the streamgages, an updated value for the regional skew coefficient (0.048) was developed using a Bayesian generalized least squares regression model. The new regional skew has a mean square error or average variance of prediction of 0.092. Additionally, basin characteristics for these stations were computed using a geographical information system. Exploratory analyses on the 965 streamgages confirmed the five hydrologic regions for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina defined in a previous rural flood‑frequency study. From the 965 streamgages, streamgages with 30 or more years of record were used to complete a peak-flow trend analysis. Of the 965 streamgages, 164 streamgages were found to be redundant and were excluded from the regional regression analyses. Data from the remaining 801 streamgages (292 in Georgia, 75 in South Carolina, 303 in North Carolina, 15 in Alabama, 12 in Florida, 39 in Tennessee, and 65 in Virginia) were used in a regional regression analysis relating basin characteristics to flood‑frequency estimates. This analysis, based on generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations to estimate the 50‑, 20‑, 10‑, 4‑, 2‑, 1‑, 0.5‑, and 0.2‑percent annual exceedance probability streamflows for rural, ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The final set of predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and percentage of the drainage basin within each of the five hydrologic regions. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 35.8 to 44.4 percent. Flood‑frequency estimates also were computed for 72 regulated (for example, a streamgage where flow is altered by a dam or weir) streamgages in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina with 20 or more years of post-regulation record using data through water year 2019. The water year is the annual period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which the period ends. Of the 72 regulated streamgages, 18 had pre-regulated periods of record that also were analyzed as part of this study. Flow adjustments were applied to historic peaks and large floods from the pre-regulated period, if available, for use in the post-regulation frequency analysis. Estimates of large floods provide valuable information in frequency analysis and, thus, were included in the post-regulation frequency analysis.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina

Factors affecting the distribution of water-bearing fractures in the bedrock aquifers of West Virginia

Bedrock aquifers cover 23,601 square miles within the State of West Virginia and comprise 97.4 percent of the surficial area within the State; the remaining 2.6 percent (621 square miles) consists of alluvial sand-and-gravel and glacial outwash aquifers bordering the State’s major rivers. While West Virginia’s alluvial aquifers have been studied extensively, bedrock aquifers have only been characterized for studies completed in a few areas in Jefferson, McDowell, and Monroe Counties. Bedrock aquifers are water supplies for public supply, agriculture, industry, and residential homeowner use. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection Division of Water and Waste Management, provides a statewide assessment of the occurrence and distribution of fractures within bedrock aquifers of the State and the various topographic, physiographic, and lithologic influences controlling the occurrence and distribution of bedrock fractures. The results of this study provide an increased understanding of the distribution of fractures in bedrock aquifers in West Virginia and help to verify trends that have been suspected for many years but were never well documented or verified by data. The results confirmed that the density of fractures and those that were determined to be water bearing decrease significantly with depth. A statistically significant difference in the density of fractures was observed at a depth of 215 feet for wells in the Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Province’s and in the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province’s aquifers; a higher density of fractures and water-bearing fractures were above a depth of 215 feet than below that depth. This is an important consideration when drilling wells for residential, commercial, industrial, or agricultural water supply. Abandoned underground coal mines are commonly believed to form large pools of water in the interconnected mine entries in abandoned room and pillar coal mines. Such pools of water can and do exist in abandoned underground coal mines, but many mines lack open entries and are held up by overburden strata and pillars that can collapse and form aquifers comprised of vast interconnected rubble zones (gob), especially in older mines. Data assessed for this study showed that shale-corrected values of effective porosity for limestone aquifers in West Virginia had a median value of 2 percent and an average value of 4 percent and generally are mineralized with low effective porosity. Argillaceous or sandy limestone has a median shale-corrected porosity of 4 percent and an average shale-corrected porosity of 5 percent. The median and average shale-corrected porosity of sandstone aquifers was estimated to be 14 percent, but the median shale-corrected porosity for argillaceous or calcareous sandstone was 5 percent and the average shale-corrected porosity for argillaceous or calcareous sandstone was 6 percent. Even though shale has a relatively high total sonic porosity compared to other lithologies, shale and siltstone had relatively low shale-corrected porosity, ranging from 0 to 2 percent. Well yields were previously documented to be highest in valley settings, lowest on hilltops, and intermediate on hillsides. Transmissivity data provided by this study confirm this general pattern within the Appalachian Plateaus Province; however, the Valley and Ridge Province does not follow this pattern. While still lowest on hilltop settings, the highest well yields were in hillside settings. The trend for the Valley and Ridge Province was likely skewed because of 9 high-yield wells specifically targeting deeper thin limestone units, such as the Tonoloway and Helderberg Limestones, at depths with transmissivity in excess of 2,000 feet squared per day in Mineral County, West Virginia, or targeting karst aquifers in Berkeley, Jefferson, or Greenbrier Counties, West Virginia. Finally, water-bearing fractures have been hypothesized to comprise a small number of all fractures within a typical bedrock well in West Virginia. Data collected for this study support this theory. A total of 3,403 fractures were identified during this study; 3,151 (92.6 percent) of those fractures are low-transmissive, and only 252 (7.4 percent) fractures are water-bearing. Even though a well may contain many fractures, less than 8 percent are considered water-bearing fractures.

West Virginia

Modeling long-term effects of fuel treatments on fuel loads and fire regimes in the Great Basin

The principal motivation for this study is that sagebrush-steppe ecosystems are undergoing significant state changes, and land managers are challenged with optimizing their resources for both short- and long-term use. Yet, limited knowledge is available regarding how the sagebrush-steppe will respond to environmental changes related to precipitation and temperature regimes, and disturbance such as fire. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding on how fuels reduction and other fuel management activities will impact these ecosystems over the long-term. We addressed these challenges by adapting and testing a vegetation dynamics model, the Ecosystem Demography v2.2 model (EDv2.2), for the sagebrush-steppe. Vegetation dynamics models can provide estimations of ecosystem productivity in their natural and disturbance states, and thus serve as a tool to understand and predict potential changes in various processes and properties of vegetation communities. Yet, there is no vegetation dynamics model that is well-developed for the sagebrush-steppe, and thus significant effort is needed to test EDv2.2 for its application. As part of our efforts to develop the EDv2.2 model into a useful tool for the sagebrush-steppe, we developed a sagebrush plant functional type (PFT) as part of this study, and then performed sensitivity analyses, model calibration, and finally model evaluation. Furthermore, we developed several model scenarios under natural (undisturbed) and disturbed (fire) environments. We compared our model outputs with ground-based data (field and eddy covariance) and remote sensing observations. The results of our project include a sagebrush PFT that can be used in both future EDv2.2 modeling efforts and other vegetation dynamic models. Our results from the model sensitivity analysis indicate that specific leaf area (SLA), stomatal slope (STO_S), cuticular conductance (CUT_C), and carboxylase rate constant (VM0) are sensitive parameters to vegetation productivity in the model (based on gross primary production, GPP), and future modeling efforts will benefit from both lab and field studies of these parameters and sensitivity analyses. Through calibration, we found that the EDv2.2 model estimates of GPP were modeled well at our lowest elevation field site in Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW), which is dominated by Wyoming big sagebrush. On the contrary, we found poorer results at higher elevation site shrub sites. These sites are characterized by either low sagebrush or mountain big sagebrush, and have more forb cover than the low elevation site. In this project we also implemented the fire model in EDv2.2 to explore how shrub and C3 grasses respond to fire by analyzing post-fire GPP. We ran both point and regional model runs with fire introduced. In most fire scenarios, fire substantially reduced shrub GPP and it took several decades for shrub GPP to return to pre-fire conditions. Grass GPP responded more quickly in post-fire conditions. While these processes are representative of what other studies have found, significant efforts to improve the fire processes in EDv2.2 are needed. For example, nuances associated with the fire subroutine in the model (running periodic fire events versus instantaneous fires and fire intensity) will need to be expanded. Another significant contribution to our knowledge gap is that additional PFTs to represent the sagebrush-steppe (e.g. annual grasses such cheatgrass) are needed for EDv2.2. Regardless, this project made significant advances in PFT development and model testing. Moreover, the EDv2.2 provides a useful framework to conceptualize vegetation dynamics, project future conditions, and consider fire as a disturbance. With additional parameterizations, PFTs, and fire routines, EDv2.2 will evolve as a tool for which to better understand future ecosystem dynamics of the sagebrush-steppe.

Idaho

Identifying sources of contaminants in urban stormwater and evaluation of their removal efficacy across a continuum of urban best management practices

Precipitation events in urban areas often result in stormwater runoff containing a diverse array of chemical contaminants. Although many traditional contaminants, such as nutrients, heavy metals, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons have been studied extensively, only recently has evidence emerged showing that trace organic compounds (TrOCs), including pharmaceuticals, personal care products and pesticides are frequently found in stormwater runoff. As there is little existing information about the sources of TrOCs in urban stormwater or their removal efficacy across a range of stormwater treatment options, we conducted a study to address these knowledge gaps and to characterize the potential contribution of TrOCs to groundwater resources from stormwater infiltration practices, based on several synoptic measurements. The current study allowed us to enhance an existing effort to assess TrOC presence and toxicity in stormwater runoff and treatment pond outflow by addressing questions related to TrOC sources to stormwater and TrOC transport to groundwaters. Analysis of eDNA confirms multiple sources of TrOCs to stormwater including human sewage, dog waste, and feces from waterfowl. It is likely that the presence of some TrOCs detected in stormwater are the result of direct, untreated sewage inputs to stormwater from either human (i.e., leaking sewer infrastructure) or pet waste (washed from sidewalks into storm drains). The seasonal detection of avian eDNA is noteworthy as it highlights seasonality and patterns of migration patterns as contributing factors to stormwater contamination. In contrast to human and pet waste, which likely enters stormwater ponds via the stormwater conveyance system, avian feces may enter ponds either through stormwater runoff or through direct inputs by waterfowl stopping-over temporarily at stormwater ponds. Stormwater ponds had little effect in reducing TrOCs as determined by comparative inflow and outflow analysis. Our results also indicate that overall few TrOCs were present in receiving groundwater adjacent to underground infiltration basins, compared to inflow. However, some contaminants were present at relatively high concentrations compared to stormwater flowing into the basins. This is particularly true for pesticides and their degradants. Fewer TrOCs were detected in interstitial water collected near stormwater ponds compared to inflow and outflow. The presence and concentrations of TrOCs in outflow from ponds was generally similar to or higher than what was observed in inflow. The data collected as part of this study can be used to guide future research or monitoring in an effort to better understand TrOC fate and transport in the environment via stormwater BMPs. Specifically, more work is needed to track parcels of water as they flow through BMPs to better quantify transport and degradation of TrOCs, monitor flow into and out of ponds for mass balance calculations, and conduct tracer tests to better quantify the amount of water that monitoring wells are intercepting from underground infiltration basins. These results have been shared in multiple presentations and in meetings with high school teachers to develop age-appropriate curriculum to highlight the role of individuals in reducing and preventing stormwater contamination. The ongoing pandemic hindered some of these efforts (cancelled conferences; suspended MN Water Roundtable meetings; pre-occupation with teachers moving materials online), however, as dissemination activities become more common in the near future, we will continue to educate stakeholders and educators about the root causes and effects of urban stormwater contamination.

Minnesota

Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment. The analysis of storm-tide impacts focused on three distinct but related aspects of coastal flooding from Hurricane Sandy, including flooding inland along the tidal reach of the Hudson River. These aspects are (1) comparisons of peak storm-tide elevations to those of historical storms and to annual exceedance probabilities, (2) assessments of storm-surge characteristics, and (3) comparisons of maps of inundation extent that were derived from differing amounts of available storm-tide data. Most peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were greater than about 9.5 feet (ft) above North American Vertical Datum of 1988. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were compared with data for the intense nor’easter of December 11–13, 1992, and Hurricane Irene (August 27–28, 2011), which weakened to a tropical storm before arriving in New York. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were higher than those from the December 1992 nor’easter at 24 of 27 sites; most differences were greater than about 0.7 ft or 9 percent (above the historical storm tide). Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were higher than those from Tropical Storm Irene at all sites; most differences were greater than about 2.5 ft or 48 percent. Data from permanent and temporary monitoring sites and HWM sites were compared with corresponding FEMA flood elevations for the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities in New York. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy had annual exceedance probabilities less than or equal to 1 percent and (or) greater than 0.2 percent at a plurality of sites—184 of 413. Peak storm-tide elevations greater than or equal to the 0.2-percent flood elevation accounted for 81 of 413 sites. Peak storm-tide elevations less than the 10-percent flood elevation accounted for only 10 of 413 sites. Data from selected permanent monitoring sites in the USGS and NOAA networks were used to assess storm-surge magnitude associated with the peak storm tide, and magnitude and timing of the peak storm surge. Most magnitudes of the peak storm surge were greater than about 8.3 ft, and most magnitudes of the storm surge component of the peak storm tide were greater than about 7.8 ft. Timing of peak storm surge arrival with respect to local phase of tide controlled where the most extreme peak storm-tide levels and coastal flooding occurred. This finding has bearing not only for locations impacted by the highest storm tides from Hurricane Sandy, but also for those that had the greatest storm surges yet were spared the worst flooding because of fortuitous timing during this storm. Results of FEMA Hazus Program (HAZUS) flood loss analyses performed for New York counties were compared for extents of storm-tide inundation from Hurricane Sandy mapped (1) pre-storm, (2) on November 11, 2012, and (3) on February 14, 2013. The resulting depictions of estimated total building stock losses document how differing amounts of available USGS data affect the resolution and accuracy of storm-tide inundation extents. Using the most accurate results from the final (February 14, 2013) inundation extent, estimated losses range from $380 million to $5.9 billion for individual New York counties; total estimated aggregate losses are about $23 billion for all New York counties. Quality of the inundation extents used in HAZUS analyses has a substantial effect on final results. These findings can be used to inform future post-storm reconstruction planning and estimation of insurance claims.

New York

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The east-central Florida transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average evapotranspiration (ET) over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.5 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.6 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.6 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.2 inches per year from the model-independent waterbudget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 800 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Florida