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USGS2012

Deep-Sea Turbidites as Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone—Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop

This report reviews the geological basis for some recent estimates of earthquake hazards in the Cascadia region between southern British Columbia and northern California. The largest earthquakes to which the region is prone are in the range of magnitude 8-9. The source of these great earthquakes is the fault down which the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is being subducted or thrust beneath the North American Plate. Geologic evidence for their occurrence includes sedimentary deposits that have been observed in cores from deep-sea channels and fans. Earthquakes can initiate subaqueous slumps or slides that generate turbidity currents and which produce the sedimentary deposits known as turbidites. The hazard estimates reviewed in this report are derived mainly from deep-sea turbidites that have been interpreted as proxy records of great Cascadia earthquakes. The estimates were first published in 2008. Most of the evidence for them is contained in a monograph now in press. We have reviewed a small part of this evidence, chiefly from Cascadia Channel and its tributaries, all of which head offshore the Pacific coast of Washington State. According to the recent estimates, the Cascadia plate boundary ruptured along its full length in 19 or 20 earthquakes of magnitude 9 in the past 10,000 years; its northern third broke during these giant earthquakes only, and southern segments produced at least 20 additional, lesser earthquakes of Holocene age. The turbidite case for full-length ruptures depends on stratigraphic evidence for simultaneous shaking at the heads of multiple submarine canyons. The simultaneity has been inferred primarily from turbidite counts above a stratigraphic datum, sandy beds likened to strong-motion records, and radiocarbon ages adjusted for turbidity-current erosion. In alternatives proposed here, this turbidite evidence for simultaneous shaking is less sensitive to earthquake size and frequency than previously thought. Turbidites far below a channel confluence, instead of representing the merged flows from two tributaries, monitor the dominant tributary only. Sandy beds low in the turbidites, instead of matching from channel to channel, permit divergent stratigraphic correlations; and rather than approximating strong-motion seismograms, the sandy beds more likely record processes internal to the generation and transformation of subaqueous mass movements. The age adjustments, instead of supporting other evidence that all the northern ruptures were long, are uncertain enough to accord with variation in rupture mode, and this variation improves agreement with onshore paleoseismology. Many of the turbidites counted as evidence for frequent earthquakes on the southern Cascadia plate boundary may instead reflect nearness to steep slopes. This report is meant to aid in the updating of national maps of seismic hazards in Canada and the United States. It offers three main conclusions for consideration at a U.S. hazard-map workshop slated for March 21-22, 2012: If giant earthquakes are the norm for the plate boundary offshore southern Washington, the strongest paleoseismic evidence for this rupture mode is the average earthquake-recurrence interval of about 500 years that is evidenced both offshore in lower Cascadia Channel and onshore at estuaries of southern Washington and northernmost Oregon. The plate boundary offshore southern British Columbia and northern Washington may be capable of producing great earthquakes at an average interval as short as 300 years that is evidenced mainly onshore. Review of more of the turbidite evidence now in press may clarify implications for the hazard maps. Further work on the deep-sea turbidites could target sedimentary processes and chronological uncertainties that may affect the turbidites' sensitivity to fault-rupture lengths and recurrence rates.

Washington;Oregon;California↗
USGS2020

Disease in Central Valley salmon: Status and lessons from other systems

Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) are increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic activities and climate change, especially at their most southern species range in California’s Central Valley. There is considerable interest in understanding stressors that contribute to population decline and in identifying management actions that reduce the impacts of those stressors. Along the west coast of North America, disease has been linked to declining numbers of salmonids and identified as a key stressor resulting in mortality. In the Central Valley, targeted studies have revealed extremely high prevalence of infectious agents and disease. However, there has been insufficient monitoring to understand the effect that disease may have on salmon populations. In order to inform future research, monitoring, and management efforts, a two-day workshop on salmon disease was held at UC Davis on March 14-15, 2018. This paper summarizes the science presented at this workshop, including the current state of knowledge of salmonid disease in the Central Valley and current and emerging tools to better understand its impacts on salmon. We highlight case studies from other systems where successful monitoring programs have been implemented. First, in the Klamath River where the integration of several data collection and modeling approaches led to the development of successful management actions, and second in British Columbia where investment in researching novel technologies led to breakthroughs in the understanding of salmon disease dynamics. Finally, we identify key information and knowledge gaps necessary to guide research and management of disease in Central Valley salmon populations.

California↗
USGS2017

Physical characteristics of the lower San Joaquin River, California, in relation to white sturgeon spawning habitat, 2011–14

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service confirmed that white sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ) recently spawned in the lower San Joaquin River, California. Decreases in the San Francisco Bay estuary white sturgeon population have led to an increased effort to understand their migration behavior and habitat preferences. The preferred spawning habitat of other white sturgeon (for example, those in the Columbia and Klamath Rivers) is thought to be areas that have high water velocity, deep pools, and coarse bed material. Coarse bed material (pebbles and cobbles), in particular, is important for the survival of white sturgeon eggs and larvae. Knowledge of the physical characteristics of the lower San Joaquin River can be used to preserve sturgeon spawning habitat and lead to management decisions that could help increase the San Francisco Bay estuary white sturgeon population. Between 2011 and 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, assessed selected reaches and tributaries of the lower river in relation to sturgeon spawning habitat by (1) describing selected spawning reaches in terms of habitat-related physical characteristics (such as water depth and velocity, channel slope, and bed material) of the lower San Joaquin River between its confluences with the Stanislaus and Merced Rivers, (2) describing variations in these physical characteristics during wet and dry years, and (3) identifying potential reasons for these variations. The lower San Joaquin River was divided into five study reaches. Although data were collected from all study reaches, three subreaches where the USFWS collected viable eggs at multiple sites in 2011–12 from Orestimba Creek to Sturgeon Bend were of special interest. Water depth and velocity were measured using two different approaches—channel cross sections and longitudinal profiles—and data were collected using an acoustic Doppler current profiler. During the first year of data collection (water year 2011), runoff was greatest, and gaged streamflow, measured as discharge, peaked at 875 cubic meters per second in the lower San Joaquin River. Also during that year, water velocity was generally between 0.6 and 0.9 meters per second, and depth was typically between 2.5 and 4.5 meters, but water depth exceeded 6 meters in several pools. Water year 2011 was classified as a “ wet ” year. Later water years were classified as either “ dry ” (water year 2012) or “ critical ” (water years 2013 and 2014). During the drier years, water was shallower, and velocities were slower. The streambed aggraded in several areas during the study. At Sturgeon Bend, for example, which had the deepest pool measured in 2011 (maximum depth was 14 meters), about 8 meters of sediment was deposited by 2014. The bed of the lower San Joaquin River was predominately sand, except in areas downstream from the mouth of Del Puerto Creek. A large amount of sand, gravel, and cobble was deposited at the mouth of Del Puerto Creek, and in the 9.5 kilometers downstream from the mouth of Del Puerto Creek, we encountered several gravel bars and patches of gravel-size (8–64 millimeters) bed material. Del Puerto and Orestimba Creeks drain from the Coast Ranges on the west side of the river. Only small quantities of gravel-size bed material were observed in the reach downstream from Orestimba Creek, indicating Orestimba Creek does not deliver much coarse sediment to the lower San Joaquin River. Del Puerto Creek appeared to be the primary source of gravels suitable for white sturgeon spawning in the lower San Joaquin River, and thus, it is important for the long-term spawning success of sturgeon in the San Joaquin River.

California↗
USGS1996

Depositional controls on coal distribution and quality in the Eocene Brunner Coal Measures, Buller Coalfield, South Island, New Zealand

The Buller Coalfield on the West Coast of the South Island, New Zealand, contains the Eocene Brunner Coal Measures. The coal measures unconformably overlie Paleozoic-Cretaceous basement rocks and are conformably overlain by, and laterally interfinger with, the Eocene marine Kaiata Formation. This study examines the lithofacies frameworks of the coal measures in order to interpret their depositional environments. The lower part of the coal measures is dominated by conglomeratic lithofacies that rest on a basal erosional surface and thicken in paleovalleys incised into an undulating peneplain surface. These lithofacies are overlain by sandstone, mudstone and organic-rich lithofacies of the upper part of the coal measures. The main coal seam of the organic-rich lithofacies is thick (10-20 m), extensive, locally split, and locally absent. This seam and associated coal seams in the Buller Coalfield are of low- to high-volatile bituminous rank (vitrinite reflectance between 0.65% and 1.75%). The main seam contains a variable percentage of ash and sulphur. These values are related to the thickening and areal distribution of the seam, which in turn, were controlled by the nature of clastic deposition and peat-forming mire systems, marine transgression and local tidal incursion. The conglomeratic lithofacies represent deposits of trunk and tributary braided streams that rapidly aggraded incised paleovalleys during sea-level stillstands. The main seam represents a deposit of raised mires that initially developed as topogenous mires on abandoned margins of inactive braidbelts. Peat accumulated in mires as a response to a rise in the water table, probably initially due to gradual sea-level rise and climate, and the resulting raised topography served as protection from floods. The upper part of the coal measures consists of sandstone lithofacies of flu vial origin and bioturbated sandstone, mudstone and organic-rich lithofacies, which represent deposits of paralic (deltaic, barrier shoreface, tidal and mire) and marine environments. The fluvial sandstone lithofacies accumulated in channels during a sea-level stillstand. The channels were infilled by coeval braided and meandering streams prior to transgression. Continued transgression, ranging from tidal channel-estuarine incursions to widespread but uneven paleoshoreline encroachment, accompanied by moderate basin subsidence, is marked by a stacked, back-stepping geometry of bioturbated sandstone and marine mudstone lithofacies. Final retrogradation (sea-level highstand) is marked by backfilling of estuaries and by rapid landward deposition of the marine Kaiata Formation in the late Eocene.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2003

Created versus natural coastal islands: Atlantic waterbird populations, habitat choices, and management implications

Nesting colonial waterbirds along the Atlantic Coast of the United States face a number of landscape-level threats including human disturbance, mammalian predator expansion, and habitat alteration. There have been changes from 1977 to the mid-1990s in use of nesting habitats and populations of a number of seabird species of concern in the region, including black skimmers Rynchops niger Linnaeaus, common terns Sterna hirundo Linnaeaus, gull-billed terns Sterna nilotica Linnaeaus, least terns Sterna antillarum Lesson, royal terns Sterna maxima Boddaert, and sandwich terns Sterna sandvicensis Cabot. These species form colonies primarily on the following habitat types: large, sandy barrier or shoal islands, natural estuarine or bay islands (mostly marsh), man-made islands of dredged deposition materials (from navigation channels), and the mainland. Significant changes in the use of the dredged material islands have occurred for these species in New Jersey and North Carolina, but not in Virginia. Population declines and changes in bird habitat use appear to be at least partially associated with the conditions and management of the existing dredged material islands, coastal policy changes associated with creating new dredged material islands, and competing demands for sand for beach augmentation by coastal communities. As these and other coastal habitats become less suitable for colonial waterbirds, other manmade sites, such as bridges and buildings have become increasingly more important. In regions with intense recreational demands, coastal wildlife managers need to take a more aggressive role in managing natural and man-made habitats areas and as stakeholders in the decision-making process involving dredged materials and beach sand allocation.

Estuaries↗
USGS2016

Sediment budgets, transport, and depositional trends in a large tidal delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is the largest delta on the west coast of the United States. It is formed where the confluence of California’s two largest rivers (the Sacramento and San Joaquin) meet the ocean tides and has a significant physical gradient from fluvial to tidal. It is a semidiurnal system (two high and two low tides per day). Today, the Delta is one of the most manipulated in the United States. Once composed of many shallow, meandering and braided dendritic channels and dead-end sloughs and wetlands, it is now a network of leveed canals moving clear water around subsided islands. It historically has supported a biologically diverse tidal wetland complex, of which only 3% remains today (Whipple et al., 2012). It has also witnessed a collapse in the native fish populations. The Delta provides critical habitat for native species, however the hydrology and water quality are complicated by manipulations and diversions to satisfy multiple statewide objectives. Today water managers face co-equal goals of water supply to Californians and maintenance of ecosystem health and function. The Delta is a hub for both a multi-hundred-million dollar agricultural industry and a massive north-to-south water delivery system, supplying the primary source of freshwater to Central Valley farmers and drinking water for two-thirds of California’s population. Large pump facilities support the water demand and draw water from the Delta, further altering circulation patterns and redirecting the net flow toward the export facilities (Monsen et al., 2007). Fluvial sedimentation, along with organic accumulation, creates and sustains the Delta landscape. Hydraulic mining for gold in the watershed during the late 1800s delivered an especially large sediment pulse to the Delta. More recently, from 1955 to the present, a significant sediment decline has been observed that is thought to have been caused mostly by the construction of water storage reservoirs that trap the upstream sediment supply (Wright and Schoellhamer, 2004). Today, one concern is whether the volume of sediment supplied from the upper watershed is sufficient to support ecological function and sustain the Delta landscape and ecosystem in the face of climate change, sea level rise, and proposed restoration associated with the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (http://baydeltaconservationplan.com). Ecosystem health is a management focus and 150,000 acres of restoration is currently proposed, therefore it is of increasingly important to understand the quantity of sediment available for marsh and wetland restoration throughout the Bay Delta Estuary. It is also important to understand the pathways for sediment transport and the sediment budget into each of three Delta regions (figure 1) to guide restoration planning, modeling, and management.

California↗
USGS2006

Surficial sediment character of the Louisiana offshore continental shelf region: A GIS compilation

The Louisiana coastal zone, comprising the Mississippi River delta plain stretching nearly 400 km from Sabine Pass at the Texas border east to the Chandeleur Islands at the Mississippi border, represents one of North America’s most important coastal ecosystems in terms of natural resources, human infrastructure, and cultural heritage. At the same time, this region has the highest rates of coastal erosion and wetland loss in the Nation due to a complex combination of natural processes and anthropogenic actions over the past century. Comparison of historical maps dating back to 1855 and recent aerial photography show the Louisiana coast undergoing net erosion at highly variable rates. Rates have increased significantly during the past several decades. Earlier published statewide average shoreline erosion rates were >6 m/yr; rates have increased recently to >10 m/yr. The increase is attributable to collective action of storms, rapid subsidence, and pervasive man-made alterations of the rivers and the coast. In response to the dramatic landloss, regional-scale restoration plans are being developed by a partnership of federal and state agencies for the delta plain that have the objectives of maintaining the barrier islands, reducing wetland loss, and enhancing the natural sediment delivery processes. There is growing awareness that the sustainability of coastal Louisiana's natural resources and human infrastructure depends on the successful restoration of natural geologic processes. Critical to the long term success of restoration is scientific understanding of the geologic history and processes of the coastal zone region, including interactions between the rivers, wetlands, coast, and inner shelf. A variety of geophysical studies and mapping of Late Quaternary sedimentary framework and coastal processes by U.S. Geological Survey and other scientists during the past 50 years document that the Louisiana delta plain is the product of a complex history of cyclic delta switching by the Mississippi River and its distributaries over the past ~10,000 years that resulted in laterally overlapping deltaic depocenters. The interactions among riverine, coastal, and inner shelf processes have been superimposed on the Holocene transgression resulting in distinctive landforms and sedimentary sequences. Four Holocene shelf-phase delta complexes have been identified using seismic reflection data and vibracores. Each delta complex is bounded by transgressive surfaces. Following each cycle of deposition and abandonment, the delta lobes undergo regional subsidence and marine reworking that forms transgressive coastal systems and barrier islands. Ultimately, the distal end of each of the abandoned delta lobes is marked by submerged marine sand bodies representing drowned barriers. These sand bodies (e.g. Ship Shoal, Outer Shoal, Trinity Shoal, Tiger Shoal, St. Bernard Shoal) offer the largest volumes and highest quality sand for beach nourishment and shoreline and wetlands restoration. These four large sand shoals on inner continental shelf, representing the reworked remnants of former prograded deltaic headlands that existed on the continental shelf at lower sea level, were generated in the retreat path of the Mississippi River delta plain during the Holocene transgression. Penland and others (1989) have shown these sand bodies represent former shoreline positions associated with lower still stands in sea level. Short periods of rapid relative sea-level rise led to the transgressive submergence of the shorelines which today can be recognized at the -10 m to -20 m isobaths on the Louisiana continental shelf. Trinity Shoal and Ship Shoal represent the -10 m middle-to-late Holocene shoreline trend, whereas Outer Shoal and the St. Bernard Shoals define the -20 m early Holocene shoreline trend (Penland and others, 1989). Collectively, these sand shoals constitute a large volume of high quality sandy sediment potentially suitable for barrier island nourishment and coastal restoration. The USGS has actively supported coastal and wetlands geologic research for the past two decades in partnership with universities (e.g., Louisiana State University, University of New Orleans), state agencies (e.g. Louisiana Geological Survey, Louisiana Department of Natural Resources), and private organizations (Williams and others, 1992a,b; Williams and Cichon, 1993; List and others, 1994). These studies have focused on regional-scale mapping of coastal and wetland change and developing a better understanding of the processes that cause coastal erosion and wetlands loss, particularly the rapid deterioration of Louisiana's barrier islands, estuaries, and wetlands environments. With a better understanding of these processes, the ability to model and predict erosion and wetlands loss will improve. More accurate predictions will, in turn, allow for proper management of coastal resources. Improved predictions will also allow for better assessments of the utility of different restoration alternatives.

Louisiana↗
USGS2002

Hydrology, vegetation, and soils of riverine and tidal floodplain forests of the lower Suwannee River, Florida, and potential impacts of flow reductions

A study relating hydrologic conditions, soils, and vegetation of floodplain forests to river flow was conducted in the lower Suwannee River, Florida, from 1996 to 2000. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Suwannee River Water Management District to help determine the minimum flows and levels required for wetlands protection. The study area included forests within the 10-year floodplain of the Suwannee River from its confluence with the Santa Fe River to the tree line (lower limit of forests) near the Gulf of Mexico, and covered 18,600 hectares (ha) of forests, 75 percent of which were wetlands and 25 percent uplands. The floodplain was divided into three reaches, riverine, upper tidal, and lower tidal, based on changes in hydrology, vegetation, and soils with proximity to the coast. The Suwannee River is the second largest river in Florida in terms of average discharge. Median flow at the confluence of the Suwannee and Santa Fe Rivers is approximately 181 cubic meters per second (m3/s) or 6,480 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) (1933-99). At the upper end of the riverine reach, river stages are unaffected by tides and have a typical annual range of 4.1 meters (m). Tides affect river stages at low and medium flows in the upper tidal reach, and at all flows in the lower tidal reach. Median tidal range at the mouth of the Suwannee River is about 1 m. Salinity of river water in the lower tidal reach increases with decreasing flow and proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. Vertically averaged salinity in the river near the tree line is typically about 5 parts per thousand at medium flow. Land-surface elevation and topographic relief in the floodplain decrease with proximity to the coast. Elevations range from 4.1 to 7.3 m above sea level at the most upstream riverine transect and from 0.3 to 1.3 m above sea level on lower tidal transects. Surface soils in the riverine reach are predominantly mineral and dry soon after floods recede except in swamps. Surface soils in upper and lower tidal reaches are predominantly organic, saturated mucks. In the downstream part of the lower tidal reach, conductivities of surface soils are high enough (greater than 4 milli-mhos per centimeter) to exclude many tree species that are intolerant of salinity. Species richness of canopy and subcanopy plants in wetland forests in the lower Suwannee River is high compared to other river floodplains in North America. A total of 77 tree, shrub, and woody vine species were identified in the canopy and subcanopy of floodplain wetland forests (n = 8,376). Fourteen specific forest types were mapped using digitized aerial photographs, defined from vegetative sampling, and described in terms of plant species composition. For discussion purposes, some specific wetland types were combined, resulting in three general wetland forest types for each reach. Riverine high bottomland hardwoods have higher canopy species richness than all other forest types (40-42 species), with Quercus virginiana the most important canopy tree by basal area. The canopy composition of riverine low bottomland hardwoods is dominated by five species with Quercus laurifolia the most important by basal area. Riverine swamps occur in the lowest and wettest areas with Taxodium distichum the most important canopy species by basal area. Upper tidal bottomland hardwoods are differentiated from riverine forests by the presence of Sabal palmetto in the canopy. Upper tidal mixed forests and swamps are differentiated from riverine forests, in part, by the presence of Fraxinus profunda in the canopy. Nyssa aquatica, the most important canopy species by basal area in upper tidal swamps, is absent from most forests in the lower tidal reach where its distribution is probably restricted by salinity. Hydric hammocks, a wetland type that is rare outside of Florida, are found in the lower tidal reach and are flooded every 1-2 years by either storm surge or river floods. Lower tidal mixed forests and swamps have continuously saturated muck soils and are differentiated from upper tidal forests, in part, by the presence of Magnolia virginiana in the canopy. Lower tidal swamps have the highest density of canopy trees (about 1,200 trees per hectare) of all floodplain forest types, with Nyssa biflora the most important canopy species by basal area. Water use in the Suwannee River basin in Florida and Georgia is expected to increase over time because of anticipated growth and development in the region and adjacent areas. If increased water consumption reduced river flow, river stage would decrease and salinity would increase, resulting in a variety of impacts on forest composition, wetland biogeochemical processes, and fish and wildlife habitat. Forest composition in the floodplain is primarily determined by duration of inundation and saturation, depth and frequency of floods, and salinity. Long-term flow reductions would result in shallower flood depths, allowing drier and more tidal species to invade wetland forests of the riverine and upper tidal reaches. If flows were reduced 2.8-56 m3/s (100-2,000 ft3/s), an estimated 52-1,140 ha, respectively, would change to a drier forest type, and 36-788 ha, respectively, would change to a more tidal forest type. The greatest impacts would occur in swamps, where important swamp species such as Taxodium distichum and Nyssa aquatica could have increased competition not only from drier or more tidal species, but also from opportunistic bottomland hardwoods or invasive exotic species. Reduced flows could also result in a conversion of some wetland forests to uplands, increasing vulnerability to human disturbance, and decreasing tree basal area, species richness, and diversity of wildlife habitat. Salt-intolerant species would move upstream if flow reductions increased salinity in the lower tidal reach. If flows were reduced 2.8-56 m3/s (100-2,000 ft3/s), the area of forests along the tree line that would convert to marshes is estimated to be 72-618 ha, respectively. Loss of forests at the tree line would result in a loss of complex vertical structural diversity and woody micro-habitats that are used by many animals. These changes are already occurring due to sea level rise, but changes would occur more quickly if salinities increased as a result of flow reductions. The amount of inundated and saturated area in the floodplain forest of the riverine reach would decrease if flows were reduced. The greatest impacts would result from flow reductions that occurred at low flows, when inundated and saturated areas in the floodplain are limited. Drier conditions would result in oxidation of organic matter in swamp soils, which would reduce the soil's water-holding capacity and ability to retain water during droughts. Drier soils would increase vulnerability of the floodplain to fire and could also reduce the ability of riverine forests to remove nitrates and other pollutants from river water. Loss of inundated areas resulting from flow reductions at low flow would eliminate aquatic habitats that are critical to the survival of floodplain fishes and aquatic invertebrates, and are important to many other animals that use the floodplain. If flow reductions occurred during high flows, main channel fishes could decrease in diversity and abundance because they are seasonally dependent on flooded forests for food, shelter, and reproduction. In addition, aquatic organisms in the river and estuary could be adversely affected because they depend on particulate organic detritus and other floodplain exports as food sources.

Florida↗
USGS2016

Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗