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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Chemical contaminants in water and sediment near fish nesting sites in the Potomac River basin: determining potential exposures to smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu)

The Potomac River basin is an area where a high prevalence of abnormalities such as testicular oocytes (TO), skin lesions, and mortality has been observed in smallmouth bass (SMB, Micropterus dolomieu). Previous research documented a variety of chemicals in regional streams, implicating chemical exposure as one plausible explanation for these biological effects. Six stream sites in the Potomac basin (and one out-of-basin reference site) were sampled to provide an assessment of chemicals in these streams. Potential early life-stage exposure to chemicals detected was assessed by collecting samples in and around SMB nesting areas. Target chemicals included those known to be associated with important agricultural and municipal wastewater sources in the Potomac basin. The prevalence and severity of TO in SMB were also measured to determine potential relations between chemistry and biological effects. A total of 39 chemicals were detected at least once in the discrete-water samples, with atrazine, caffeine, deethylatrazine, simazine, and iso-chlorotetracycline being most frequently detected. Of the most frequently detected chemicals, only caffeine was detected in water from the reference site. No biogenic hormones/sterols were detected in the discrete-water samples. In contrast, 100 chemicals (including six biogenic hormones/sterols) were found in a least one passive-water sample, with 25 being detected at all such samples. In addition, 46 chemicals (including seven biogenic hormones/sterols) were found in the bed-sediment samples, with caffeine, cholesterol, indole, para-cresol, and sitosterol detected in all such samples. The number of herbicides detected in discrete-water samples per site had a significant positive relation to TO rank (a nonparametric indicator of TO), with significant positive relations between TO rank and atrazine concentrations in discrete-water samples and to total hormone/sterol concentration in bed-sediment samples. Such significant correlations do not necessarily imply causation, as these chemical compositions and concentrations likely do not adequately reflect total SMB exposure history, particularly during critical life stages.

Potomac River Basin↗

USGS2009

Longitudinal patterns in flathead catfish relative abundance and length at age within a large river: Effects of an urban gradient

We investigated the spatial variation of flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris) relative abundance and growth in the 274 km long Kansas River to determine if population dynamics of catfish are related to urbanization. Electrofishing was conducted at 462 random sites throughout the river in summer, 2005-2006 to collect fish. Relative abundance of age 1 fish (???200mm), subadult (>200-400mm) and adult fish (>400 mm) ranged from 0.34 to 14.67 fish h -1 , mean length at age 1 was 165 (range: 128-195) mm total length (TL) and mean length at age 3 was 376 mm TL (range: 293-419mm TL). The proportion of land use within 200 m of the river edge was between 0 and 0.54 urban. River reaches with high relative abundance of age 1 flathead catfish had high relative abundance of subadult and adult catfish. River reaches with fast flathead catfish growth to age 1 had fast growth to age 3. High urban land use and riprap in the riparian area were evident in river reaches near the heavily populated Kansas City and Topeka, Kansas, USA. Reaches with increased number of log jams and islands had decreased riparian agriculture. Areas of low urbanization had faster flathead catfish growth (r = 0.67, p = 0.005). Relative abundance of flathead catfish was higher in more agricultural areas (r = -0.57, p = 0.02). Changes in land use in riverine environments may alter population dynamics of a fish species within a river. Spatial differences in population dynamics need to be considered when evaluating riverine fish populations. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2012

Invertebrate and fish assemblage relations to dissolved oxygen minima in lowland streams of southwestern Louisiana

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in lowland streams are naturally lower than those in upland streams; however, in some regions where monitoring data are lacking, DO criteria originally established for upland streams have been applied to lowland streams. This study investigated the DO concentrations at which fish and invertebrate assemblages at 35 sites located on lowland streams in southwestern Louisiana began to demonstrate biological thresholds. Average threshold values for taxa richness, diversity and abundance metrics were 2.6 and 2.3 mg/L for the invertebrate and fish assemblages, respectively. These thresholds are approximately twice the DO concentration that some native fish species are capable of tolerating and are comparable with DO criteria that have been recently applied to some coastal streams in Louisiana and Texas. DO minima >2.5 mg/L were favoured for all but extremely tolerant taxa. Extremely tolerant taxa had respiratory adaptations that gave them a competitive advantage, and their success when DO minima were <2 mg/L could be related more to reductions in competition or predation than to DO concentration directly. DO generally had an inverse relation to the amount of agriculture in the buffer area; however, DO concentrations at sites with both low and high amounts of agriculture (including three least-disturbed sites) declined to <2.5 mg/L. Thus, although DO fell below a concentration that was identified as an approximate biological threshold, sources of this condition were sometimes natural (allochthonous material) and had little relation to anthropogenic activity.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Monitoring restoration impacts to endemic plant communities in soil inclusions of arid environments

Soil inclusions are small patches of soil with different properties than the surrounding, dominant soil. In arid areas of western North America, soil inclusions called slickspot soils are saltier than adjacent soil and support different types of native vegetation. Traditional sagebrush restoration efforts, such as using drills to plant seeds or herbicides to control invasive vegetation, may damage sensitive slickspot soil and supporting vegetation. USGS scientists David Pyke and Scott Shaff and collaborators monitored slickspot size and cover of endangered slickspot peppergrass for two years to see if they were affected by the application of the herbicide glyphosate or by a minimum-till drill in the Snake River Plain, ID. The researchers examined the use of aerial photographs versus on-the-ground measurements and concluded that slickspot sizes were not affected by these treatments. Remote sensing using aerial photographs proved a useful method for mapping slickspot soils.

International Journal of Agriculture & Biology↗

USGS2019

Evaluating the role of Farm Bill conservation program participation in conserving America’s grasslands

Grasslands are one of the most imperiled ecosystems in the world and the majority of the grassland ecosystem in the United States is privately owned and used for agriculture. Conversion of grasslands to row crops is expanding, fueled by commodity price increases, technological improvements, and agricultural policy. The U.S. government primarily uses voluntary incentive-based conservation programs to address the environmental impacts of agriculture and encourage conservation on private land. To investigate the utility of these programs to conserve grasslands, we surveyed private landowners in the Plains and Prairie Pothole Ecoregion (PPPE), one of America’s most at-risk grassland areas, about their land use, environmental attitudes and values, and reasons for or against participating in a Farm Bill conservation program. Agricultural landowners with large land holdings, who value hunting, and have positive environmental values, attitudes, and behaviors, were more likely to participate in a program. Financial considerations and a desire for autonomy limited participation. While program participants had less land in grass than nonparticipants and were more likely to convert planted grass to row crops and/or remove wetlands, they were also less likely to convert virgin sod to row crops. These findings signal the need for additional research and tools other than FBCPs to conserve the PPPE grasslands.

Land Use Policy↗

USGS2000

Summary of the major water-quality findings from the Eastern Iowa Basins study unit of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

An integrated assessment of the water quality in streams and aquifers in the Wapsipinicon, Iowa, Cedar, and Skunk River basins was conducted in 1996 through 1998 as part of the Eastern Iowa Basins (EIWA) study unit of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA). The EIWA study unit is one of 59 study units across the Nation designed to assess the status and trends in the quality of the Nation's ground- and surface-water resources and to link the status and trends with an understanding of the natural and human factors that affect the quality of water. Over 90 percent of the land in the EIWA study unit is used for agricultural purposes, while forested areas account for only 4 percent and urban areas about 2 percent of the land. Surface-water samples were collected monthly and during selected storm events from six sites in medium-sized basins (125 to about 400 mi2) and five sites in large river basins (2,300 to 12,500 mi2). The medium-sized basins were selected to be representative of various physical features, hydrogeology, and agricultural landuse (row crops and concentrated animal feeding operations) that may affect water quality. The large river sites were selected to determine the integrated effects of combinations of landuse and hydrogeology on river-water quality. Ground-water samples were collected primarily from the alluvial aquifers because of the aquifers' direct hydraulic connection with rivers and streams and because alluvial aquifers are one of the most important sources for domestic, municipal, and industrial water supplies in the study area. Monitoring wells were installed in agricultural and urban areas of the alluvial aquifers to assess the quality of the most recently recharged water in relation to land use. Existing domestic wells screened in alluvial aquifers and the Silurian/Devonian aquifer were sampled to assess deeper and older ground water. Surface- and ground-water samples were analyzed for a wide variety of chemical constituents (major ions, nutrients, and pesticides) commonly associated with agricultural and urban activities. Because they were not expected to occur in rivers and streams, volatile organic compounds (VOC's), commonly comprising fuels, solvents, and other industrial compounds were only analyzed in ground-water samples. The age of the ground water, important information needed to relate ground-water quality to land use, was determined using both tritium and chlorofluorocarbons (Freon?) age-dating methods. Results from the EIWA NAWQA study build on previous and ongoing research and water-quality monitoring programs in Iowa and provide new insights into the relation between the quality of the State's water resources and human activities. The major findings from the study are listed below.

Iowa↗

USGS2024

Longitudinal and seasonal changes of organic matter sources through a semi-arid river-reservoir system

The quality and quantity of organic matter (OM) in a river system directly affects ecosystem health; thus, managers benefit from an in-depth understanding of the drivers and sources of OM. In the Snake River, a highly altered river-reservoir system in the semi-arid western United States, OM production and loading are key drivers of reservoir anoxia, which leads to several deleterious processes such as mercury methylation. However, sources and quantities of OM to the Snake River, and the effects of impoundment on OM moving through the river-reservoir system, are not well understood. Particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate nitrogen (PN), chlorophyll a (chl- a ), and δ 15 N–PN and δ 13 C–POC isotopic ratios were measured bi-weekly for over 2 years at four locations through the Snake River Hells Canyon Reservoir Complex to determine spatial and temporal patterns of OM quantities and sources. POC concentrations increased through the riverine zone upstream of the reservoirs, likely due to in situ primary production and/or inputs from tributaries and agricultural drains; then decreased through the most upstream reservoir likely due to particle settling. Isotopic ratios and other OM source indicators (δ 15 N–PN, δ 13 C–POC, POC:PN, chl- a :POC) show that the dominant source of particulate OM was phytoplankton with seasonal terrestrial/macrophytic inputs. Results highlight the effects of major tributary and agricultural drain inputs, primary production, and impoundment on OM composition and concentration through a large river-reservoir system and may inform water quality management efforts in this and similar systems.

Idaho, Oregon↗

USGS1986

Kansas ground-water observation-well network, 1985

Water level measurements are made in 1,892 selected wells in 73 counties, which currently (1985) comprise the Kansas groundwater observation-well network. These measurements are made on a continuous, monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. Water level measurements have been made in observation wells since 1937 as part of a cooperative program among the Kansas Geological Survey , the Kansas State Board of Agriculture, the city of Wichita, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The objectives of the observation-well cooperative program are: (1) to provide long-term records of water level fluctuations in representative wells, (2) to facilitate the determination of possible water level trends that may indicate future availability of groundwater supplies, (3) to aid in the determination of possible changes in the base flow of streams, and (4) to provide information for use in water-resources research. This report lists for each well in the network the location, the first year of recorded water level measurement, the frequency and number of measurements, the land-surface altitude, hexagon-grid identifiers for wells in the High Plains aquifer, and the principal geologic unit(s) in which the well is completed. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

USGS2003

Difficulties in determining factors that influence effective groundwater recharge in Ohio

As part of a COSI Academy research project, data from a recent statewide analysis of effective groundwater recharge were reexamined by students to further discern relations between recharge and selected environmental characteristics of individual drainage basins: 1) location of the main stem of a river relative to coarse and fine surficial sediments and 2) influence of land use. Lack of sufficiently detailed data was the principal difficulty in most phases of the examination. Other than a potential relation between recharge and the percentages of agricultural and forested land, no relations were found in visual comparisons of mapped and tabulated data.

Ohio Journal of Science↗

USGS2001

Toward linking maize chemistry to archaeological agricultural sites in the North American Southwest

Maize (Zea mays L.) was the staple domestic food crop for Ancestral Pueblo people throughout the northern American Southwest. It is thought to have been the basic food of the inhabitants of Chaco Canyon. New Mexico, a location that was a major centre of Ancestral Pueblo building and population during the 11th and early 12th centuries AD. Modern heirloom varieties of Native American corn have been difficult to grow in experimental fields in Chaco Canyon. Given an abundance of apparent storage structures in Chacoan buildings, it is possible that some corn recovered from archaeological contexts, was imported from surrounding areas. The ultimate goal of this research is to determine whether the corn in Chaco Canyon was grown locally or imported. This paper establishes the feasibility of a method to accomplish this goal. This study reports the results of using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometric (ICP-MS) instrumentation to determine chemical constituents of experimental fields and modern heirloom varieties of Native American corn. Analysis of 19 elements is adequate to differentiate soil and corn from three field areas. These results are promising: however, a number of problems, including post-depositional alterations in maize, remain to be solved. ?? 2001 Academic Press.

Journal of Archaeological Science↗

USGS2017

Anticoagulant rodenticides and wildlife: Concluding remarks

Rodents are known to affect human society globally in various adverse ways, resulting in a widespread demand for their continuous control. Anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs) have been, and currently remain, the cornerstone of rodent control throughout the world. Although alternative control methods exist, they are generally less effective. ARs work by affecting vitamin K metabolism, thereby preventing the activation of blood clotting factors and eventual coagulopathy. Since ARs are non-selective, their undoubted benefits for rodent control have to be balanced against the environmental risks that these compounds pose. Although they have been used for decades, pharmacokinetic and toxicokinetic data are mainly available for laboratory mammals and have concentrated on acute effects. Limited information is available on chronic exposure scenarios and for wildlife species. Important gaps exist in our understanding of the large inter- and intra-species differences in sensitivity to ARs, especially for non-target species, and in our knowledge about the occurrence and importance of sub-lethal effects in wildlife. It is clear that mere presence of AR residues in the body tissues may not indicate the occurrence of effects, although unequivocal assessment of effects under field conditions is difficult. Ante-mortem symptoms, like lethargy, subdued behaviour and unresponsiveness are generally not very specific as is true for more generic post-mortem observations (e.g. pallor of the mucous membranes or occurrence of haemorrhages). It is only by combining ante or post-mortem data with information on exposure that effects in the field may be confirmed. We do know however that a wide variety of non-target species are directly exposed to ARs. Secondary exposure in predators is also widespread although there is limited information on whether this exposure causes actual effects. Exposure is driven by ecological factors and is context specific with respect to spatial habitat configuration and bait placement. Another key factor that affects the interaction between ARs and wildlife is the development of resistance in target species. The development of resistance has resulted in higher use of SGARs, thereby increasing the potential of non-target and secondary exposure. AR use has increasingly become more strictly regulated, increasing the need for alternatives. Alternatives are available, including non-anticoagulant rodenticides, but these may also pose significant risk to environmental organisms, humans and pets. There are also various mitigation measures that can be implemented when using ARs, including bait protection, pulsed baiting at the onset of infestation, restricting use by non-professionals, and avoiding use in areas of high non-target density. Reduction in secondary exposure may result from e.g. non-chemical control, habitat management, and, in agricultural habitats, the use of lure crops and supplemental feeding. Such Integrated Pest Management (IPM) may not only reduce non-target exposure but also benefit resistance management. Barriers to adopt IPM approaches however, include the perception that they do not work or too slowly and are more laborious, expensive and time consuming. It is therefore important that the expectations of stakeholders are considered and managed. Nevertheless, further development of alternatives and IPM measures is essential, so the key research priority related to rodent control may ultimately be to address the lack of scientific assessment of the effectiveness of both specific AR mitigation measures and of IPM approaches to rodent control.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Modeling the effects of tile drain placement on the hydrologic function of farmed prairie wetlands

The early 2000s saw large increases in agricultural tile drainage in the eastern Dakotas of North America. Agricultural practices that drain wetlands directly are sometimes limited by wetland protection programs. Little is known about the impacts of tile drainage beyond the delineated boundaries of wetlands in upland catchments that may be in agricultural production. A series of experiments were conducted using the well-published model WETLANDSCAPE that revealed the potential for wetlands to have significantly shortened surface water inundation periods and lower mean depths when tile is placed in certain locations beyond the wetland boundary. Under the soil conditions found in agricultural areas of South Dakota in North America, wetland hydroperiod was found to be more sensitive to the depth that drain tile is installed relative to the bottom of the wetland basin than to distance-based setbacks. Because tile drainage can change the hydrologic conditions of wetlands, even when deployed in upland catchments, tile drainage plans should be evaluated more closely for the potential impacts they might have on the ecological services that these wetlands currently provide. Future research should investigate further how drainage impacts are affected by climate variability and change.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2015

Science from genes to landscapes

Wherever flowering plants flourish, pollinating bees, birds, butterflies, bats, and other animals are at work, providing vital and often unnoticed services. Many of these species are in serious decline, a situation if unabated, threatens agricultural production, maintenance of natural plant communities, and other important services. Responding to this urgent challenge, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of efforts to provide scientific information to support pollinator conservation, including the implementation of a national pollinator health strategy ( http://www.usgs.gov/ecosystems/wildlife/pollinators/ .) This science is but one example of how the Ecosystems Science Mission Area of the USGS conducts science to support sound management and conservation of our Nation’s biological resources. It does this through research, technical assistance, and education conducted by Cooperative Research Units and Science Centers located in nearly every State. The quality of life and economic strength in America hinges on healthy ecosystems that support living things and natural processes. Ecosystem science better enables society to understand how and why ecosystems change, to predict and forecast future changes, and to guide actions that can prevent damage to, and restore and sustain ecosystems. It is through this knowledge that informed decisions are made about natural resources that can enhance our Nation's economic and environmental well-being.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1999

Denitrification in marine shales in northeastern Colorado

Parts of the South Platte River alluvial aquifer in northeastern Colorado are underlain by the Pierre Shale, a marine deposit of Late Cretaceous age that is <1000 m thick. Ground water in the aquifer is contaminated with NO 3 ‐ , and the shale contains abundant potential electron donors for denitrification in the forms of organic carbon and sulfide minerals. Nested piezometers were sampled, pore water was squeezed from cores of shale, and an injection test was conducted to determine if denitrification in the shale was a sink for alluvial NO 3 − and to measure denitrification rates in the shale. Measured values of NO 3 − , N 2 , NH 4 + , δ 15 N[NO 3 − ], δ 15 N[N 2 ], and δ 15 N[NH 4 + ] in the alluvial and shale pore water indicated that denitrification in the shale was a sink for alluvial NO 3 − . Chemical gradients, reaction rate constants, and hydraulic head data indicated that denitrification in the shale was limited by the slow rate of NO 3 − transport (possibly by diffusion) into the shale. The apparent in situ first‐order rate constant for denitrification in the shale based on diffusion calculations was of the order of 0.04–0.4 yr −1 , whereas the potential rate constant in the shale based on injection tests was of the order of 60 yr −1 . Chemical data and mass balance calculations indicate that organic carbon was the primary electron donor for denitrification in the shale during the injection test, and ferrous iron was a minor electron donor in the process. Flux calculations for the conditions encountered at the site indicate that denitrification in the shale could remove only a small fraction of the annual agricultural NO 3 ‐ input to the alluvial aquifer. However, the relatively large potential first‐order rate constant for denitrification in the shale indicated that the percentage of NO 3 − uptake by the shale could be considerably larger in areas where NO 3 − advection.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Methods for installation, removal, and downloading data from the temperature profiling probe (TROD)

This document provides a brief method overview on the deployment and removal of the temperature profiling probe developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2015 and referred to as SensorRod or temperature rod (TROD). The TROD is suitable for short- to long-term deployments (days to years) for evaluating thermal gradients in soils and sediments beneath surface water. Applications include evaluating exchange between groundwater and surface water, seepage losses in agricultural canals, infiltration on hillslopes, and timing of snowmelt and runoff. The temperature sensors inside the TROD are iButtons and are meant to be replaceable when needed. The housing is water tight and is made of schedule 80 PVC pipe. Sensor intervals are flexible and can be built to specific applications. A joint patent (U.S 10/180,360.) and license agreement between the USGS and Alpha Mach for the TROD design was obtained in 2019, and a paper in Water Resource Research describes the design and testing (Naranjo and Turcotte, 2015).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Crop area estimation using high and medium resolution satellite imagery in areas with complex topography

Reliable estimates of cropped area (CA) in developing countries with chronic food shortages are essential for emergency relief and the design of appropriate market-based food security programs. Satellite interpretation of CA is an effective alternative to extensive and costly field surveys, which fail to represent the spatial heterogeneity at the country-level. Bias-corrected, texture based classifications show little deviation from actual crop inventories, when estimates derived from aerial photographs or field measurements are used to remove systematic errors in medium resolution estimates. In this paper, we demonstrate a hybrid high-medium resolution technique for Central Ethiopia that combines spatially limited unbiased estimates from IKONOS images, with spatially extensive Landsat ETM+ interpretations, land-cover, and SRTM-based topography. Logistic regression is used to derive the probability of a location being crop. These individual points are then aggregated to produce regional estimates of CA. District-level analysis of Landsat based estimates showed CA totals which supported the estimates of the Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development. Continued work will evaluate the technique in other parts of Africa, while segmentation algorithms will be evaluated, in order to automate classification of medium resolution imagery for routine CA estimation in the future.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2019

Scenarios of climate adaptation potential on protected working lands from management of soils

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices that build soil organic matter (SOM) on agricultural lands also increase soil water holding capacity, potentially reducing climatic water deficit (CWD), increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET) and increasing groundwater recharge (RCH). We developed nine spatially-explicit land use and conservation scenarios (2001 - 2100) in the LUCAS land use change model to address two questions for California working lands (cropland and rangeland): How does land use change limit opportunities to manage soils for hydrologic climate adaptation benefits? To what extent and where can soil management practices increase climate adaptation on protected working lands? Hydrologic benefits [∑(∆CWD, ∆AET, ∆RCH)] due to soil management were simulated in the Basin Characterization Model (a state-wide water balance model) for two Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate models. LUCAS simulated land conversion and new conservation easements with potential for maximum hydrologic benefits. Climate drove differences in lost potential for water benefits due to urbanization (33.9 - 87.6 m3 x 106) in 2050. Conflict between development pressure and potential hydrologic benefits occurred most in Santa Clara County in the San Francisco Bay Area and Shasta County in Northern Sacramento Valley. Hydrologic benefits on easements were similar in magnitude to losses from development. Water savings from management of California Land Conservation (a.k.a. Williamson) Act contract lands were an order of magnitude greater, totaling over 460 m3 x106 annually in a drier climate by 2050. Few counties provide most benefits because of soil properties, climate and land area protected. The increase in hydrologic benefits varies by agricultural practice and adoption rate, land use type and configuration, and terms of conservation agreements. The effectiveness of programs designed to improve climate adaptation at county to state scales will likely increase by taking this variability into consideration.

California↗

USGS2020

Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non‐point source nutrient pollution. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non‐point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana ) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020–2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change ( n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation ( n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment‐hydrology, and agricultural‐practice‐simulation models. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade‐offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy‐makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land‐management change.

Michigan, Ohio, Indiana↗