SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Trends”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Appendix B: Patterns of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus demography, life history, abundance, and trends in the Lewis River

Declines in the distribution and abundance of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) across much of the historical range in the Pacific Northwest region of Canada and the United States have been well documented (Post and Johnston 2002; Rieman et al. 1997). Recent estimates of population trends appear to vary considerably across regions with large numbers of migratory and resident populations exhibiting substantial declines in adult abundance (Al-Chokhachy et al. 2016; Kovach et al. 2018), whereas others remain stable or potentially increasing (Erhardt and Scarnecchia 2014; Meyer et al. 2014). For example, 61% of the core populations in Alberta, Canada, are considered declining, and 39% are stable or increasing (Alberta Sustainable Resource Development 2012). The variability in population status and trends highlights the importance of population-specific data. Much of our understanding of bull trout life history has stemmed from a few, well-studied populations, and continuing to improve our knowledge of the variability in life-history expressions (e.g., Starcevich et al. 2012) can support directing local and regional conservation efforts (sensu Schindler et al. 2010). Here, we consider the life history, demographic patterns, and assess potential threats for an adfluvial population of bull trout in the upper Lewis River basin in Washington, USA. We synthesized recent monitoring efforts and field studies to refine our understanding of bull trout life-history expressions (i.e., migration patterns), demographics, and genetic status. We further evaluated the potential threats of brook trout ( S. fontinalis ), a species that is not native to the Lewis River, but which was recently documented in bull trout monitoring efforts (Al-Chokhachy et al. 2024). Our specific objectives included evaluating: (1) trends in size structure of subadults and adult bull trout (2014 – 2024); (2) patterns of adult migration and life-history and climate drivers of migration patterns (2011 – 2024); (3) the within-year temporal patterns of bull trout and coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) spawning and superimposition of bull trout redds by spawning coho salmon (2024); (4) temporal trends in abundance for adult and juvenile bull trout from annual monitoring methods (2008 – 2024); and (5) the current (2024) extent of non-native brook trout in wetland habitat adjacent to Yale Lake.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Trends in cheetah Acinonyx jubatus density in north-central Namibia

Assessing trends in abundance and density of species of conservation concern is vital to inform conservation and management strategies. The remaining population of the cheetah ( Acinonyx jubatus ) largely exists outside of protected areas, where they are often in conflict with humans. Despite this, the population status and dynamics of cheetah outside of protected areas have received relatively limited attention across its range. We analyzed remote camera trapping data of nine surveys conducted from 2005 to 2014 in the Waterberg Conservancy, north-central Namibia, which included detections of 74 individuals (52 adult males, 7 adult females and 15 dependents). Using spatial capture–recapture methods, we assessed annual and seasonal trends in cheetah density. We found evidence of a stable trend in cheetah density over the study period, with an average density of 1.94/100 km 2 (95% confidence interval 1.33–2.84). This apparent stability of cheetah density is likely the result of stable and abundant prey availability, a high tolerance to carnivores by farmers and low turnover rates in home range tenure. This study highlights the importance of promoting long-term surveys that capture a broad range of environmental variation that may influence species density and the importance of nonprotected areas for cheetah conservation.

Population Ecology↗

USGS2017

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km 2 yr −1 ; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

California↗

USGS2024

Crop type classification, trends, and patterns of central California agricultural fields from 2005 to 2020

California produces many key agricultural products in the United States. Current geospatial agricultural datasets are limited in mapping accuracy, spatial context, or observation period. This study uses machine learning and high-resolution imagery to produce a time series of crop maps to assess crop type trends and patterns across central California from 2005 to 2020. National Agriculture Imagery Program and Landsat imagery were used to classify nine crop types that are common in the study region: grain crops, field crops, rice, citrus and subtropical, deciduous fruit and nut, vineyard, berry and vegetable, pasture, and fallow/young perennial crop types. To create labeled data, we sampled 1253 fields and manually identified crop types for each examined year using high-resolution imagery and Landsat normalized difference vegetation index time series. We applied a random forest machine learning algorithm in Google Earth Engine. Results show that the mean overall classification accuracy of the nine-class map was 93.1%, with individual accuracies ranging from 99.3% (rice) to 89.5% (fallow/young perennial). Mann–Kendall trend tests showed significant ( p less than 0.05) declines in field crop and pasture area during the study period, while deciduous fruit and nut, citrus and subtropical, and fallow/young perennial crop types experienced significant increases. At an aggregate level, there was a general shift from annual crop types to perennial crop types. These data provide a 16-year time span of spatially explicit crop type classifications, trends, and patterns in central California that can be used to aid managers and decision makers for resource planning or hazard mitigation.

California↗

USGS2026

Expansion trends and impacts of Phragmites australis on the Louisiana Gulf Coast

Invasive plant species pose substantial threats to ecosystem integrity by disrupting ecosystem processes, reducing biodiversity, and complicating restoration and management efforts. Non-native lineages of Phragmites australis are invasive in wetlands across parts of North America, causing declines in the diversity of native wetland plants and disrupting biogeochemical cycles. Despite recognition of these effects, important knowledge gaps remain regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics, environmental drivers, and consequences of Phragmites expansion for native communities. Here, we examined long-term data from the Louisiana Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS), collected from 2006 to 2023 and spanning 390 sites across nine basins, to quantify basin-specific Phragmites cover trajectories and evaluate their associations with co-occurring native plant cover and soil properties. Louisiana supports both long-established noninvasive and (since ~2000) invasive European P. australis lineages, but CRMS cannot distinguish them; thus, our basin-level trajectories reflect species-level cover dynamics that may integrate lineage-specific turnover. Phragmites dynamics varied markedly among basins over the study period: Phragmites cover decreased in the Mississippi River Delta (initially >25%), whereas the Calcasieu-Sabine, Mermentau, Teche-Vermilion, and Terrebonne basins, each starting with <5%, exhibited positive expansion trends. The remaining four basins maintained low and stable Phragmites cover (<5%) over the study period. These distinct basin-level trajectories may reflect basin-to-basin differences in a hydrogeomorphic setting and associated sediment and nutrient inputs. In basins with positive expansion trends, Phragmites cover was associated with decreases in native plant cover. Overall, Phragmites expansion was positively associated with higher soil nutrients, lower pH, and higher salinity, highlighting key environmental factors that could inform targeted management to prevent or mitigate its expansion. Although Phragmites cover remains low in most basins (<10%), expansion in several basins suggests the value of basin-specific early-warning monitoring to maintain native plant cover and associated ecosystem functions. Our two-step framework offers a transferable monitoring template that integrates Phragmites cover trends (expanding/stable/declining), concurrently measured native plant cover, and key soil and pore-water indicators to flag emerging hotspots and prioritize adaptive management in other estuarine and deltaic systems.

Louisiana↗

USGS2018

Systematic variation in evapotranspiration trends and drivers across the Northeastern United States

The direction and magnitude of responses of evapotranspiration (ET) to climate change are important to understand, as ET represents a major water and energy flux from terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences that feed back to the climate system. We inferred multidecadal trends in water balance in 11 river basins (1940–2012) and eight smaller watersheds (with records ranging from 18 to 61 years in length) in the Northeastern United States. Trends in river basin actual ET (AET) varied across the region, with an apparent latitudinal pattern: AET increased in the cooler northern part of the region (Maine) but decreased in some warmer regions to the southwest (Pennsylvania–Ohio). Of the four small watersheds with records longer than 45 years, two fit this geographic pattern in AET trends. The differential effects of the warming climate on AET across the region may indicate different mechanisms of change in more‐ vs. less‐energy‐limited watersheds, even though annual precipitation greatly exceeds potential ET across the entire region. Correlations between AET and time series of temperature and precipitation also indicate differences in limiting factors for AET across the Northeastern U.S. climate gradient. At many sites across the climate gradient, water‐year AET correlated with summer precipitation, implying that water limitation is at least transiently important in some years, whereas correlations with temperature indices were more prominent in northern than southern sites within the region.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2020

Causal factors for pesticide trends in streams of the United States: Atrazine and deethylatrazine

Pesticides are important for agriculture in the United States, and atrazine is one of the most widely used and widely detected pesticides in surface water. A better understanding of the mechanisms by which atrazine and its degradation product, deethylatrazine, increase and decrease in surface waters can help inform future decisions for water-quality improvement. This study considers causal factors for trends in pesticide concentration in streams in the United States and models the causal factors, other than use, in structural equation models. The structural equation models use a concomitant trend in corn and a latent variable model indicating moisture supply and management. The moisture supply and management latent variable incorporates long-term moisture conditions in the individual watersheds by using the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index; human influence on the hydrologic cycle through the percent of the watershed drained by tile drains in 2012; and the base-flow contribution to streamflow, using the base-flow index. The structural equation models explain 77% and 38% of the variability in atrazine and deethylatrazine trends, respectively, across the conterminous United States. The models highlight future water-quality challenges, particularly in tile-drained settings where fall precipitation and heavy precipitation are increasing.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2008

Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia

As a country whose economy is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture, rainfall trends are often cited as one of the more important factors in explaining various socio-economic problems such as food insecurity. Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The variability and trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were analysed at the watershed scale with data (1) from all available years, and (2) excluding years that lacked observations from at least 25% of the gauges. Similar analyses were also performed at the gauge, regional, and national levels. By regressing annual watershed rainfall on time, results from the one-sample t -test show no significant changes in rainfall for any of the watersheds examined. However, in our regressions of seasonal rainfall averages against time, we found a significant decline in June to September rainfall (i.e. Kiremt) for the Baro-Akobo, Omo-Ghibe, Rift Valley, and Southern Blue Nile watersheds located in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia. While the gauge level analysis showed that certain gauge stations experienced recent changes in rainfall, these trends are not necessarily reflected at the watershed or regional levels.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2011

Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem, Montana

We estimated grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate ( m x ) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Climate-induced warming of lakes can be either amplified or suppressed by trends in water clarity

Climate change is rapidly warming aquatic ecosystems including lakes and reservoirs. However, variability in lake characteristics can modulate how lakes respond to climate. Water clarity is especially important both because it influences the depth range over which heat is absorbed, and because it is changing in many lakes. Here, we show that simulated long-term water clarity trends influence how both surface and bottom water temperatures of lakes and reservoirs respond to climate change. Clarity changes can either amplify or suppress climate-induced warming, depending on lake depth and the direction of clarity change. Using a process-based model to simulate 1894 north temperate lakes from 1979 to 2012, we show that a scenario of decreasing clarity at a conservative yet widely observed rate of 0.92% yr −1 warmed surface waters and cooled bottom waters at rates comparable in magnitude to climate-induced warming. For lakes deeper than 6.5 m, decreasing clarity was sufficient to fully offset the effects of climate-induced warming on median whole-lake mean temperatures. Conversely, a scenario increasing clarity at the same rate cooled surface waters and warmed bottom waters relative to baseline warming rates. Furthermore, in 43% of lakes, increasing clarity more than doubled baseline bottom temperature warming rates. Long-term empirical observations of water temperature in lakes with and without clarity trends support these simulation results. Together, these results demonstrate that water clarity trends may be as important as rising air temperatures in determining how waterbodies respond to climate change.

Limnology and Oceanography Letters↗

USGS2015

Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Wyoming↗

USGS1985

Resolving controls on epeiric sedimentation using trend surface analysis

An understanding of patterns of regional sedimentation is crucial to identifying trends of perspective petroleum reservoirs. The Upper Pennsylvanian, Missourian Kansas City Group consists of repetitions of widespread carbonate rock and shale. Each of four cyclothems chosen for subsurface study of western Kansas contains transgressive and regressive lithofacies with evidence of extensive subaerial exposure across the entire paleoshelf. Distribution of carbonate facies on the 350+ km-wide shelf was affected strongly by slight changes in structural configuration of the shelf and variations in sea level. Polynomial trend surface models prepared from selected wireline log information for four successive cyclothems assist in resolving regional and local patterns of sedimentation and help to access the effect of subtle structural deformation on sedimentation. Isopachs of marine portions of four cyclothems were fit by fourth-order trend surfaces, optimizing fit by comparing goodness-of-fit and minimizing skewness of residuals using the smallest order surface. Several cyclothems showed simple patterns of regional, basinward thickening with local, strike-elongated anomalies where goodness-of-fit was maximized with increasing order. One cyclothem did not converge to a good fit at small orders nor did distribution of residuals indicate convergence toward zero. Both anomalies reflected a more complex surface. Rather than thickening regionally, the pattern created by this anomalous cyclothem was more irregular. Mapped patterns resemble those of the present-day structural configuration of these horizons suggesting a general persistence in similar epeirogenic deformation. ?? 1985 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

USGS2006

Temporal trends of young-of-year fishes in Lake Erie and comparison of diel sampling periods

We explored temporal trends of young-of-year (YOY) fishes caught in bottom trawl hauls at an established offshore monitoring site in Lake Erie in fall during 1961–2001. Sampling was conducted during morning, afternoon, and night in each year. Catches per hour (CPH) of alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) YOY were relatively low and exhibited no temporal trend. This result was consistent with the species’ intolerance to Lake Erie’s adverse winter water temperatures. Gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum ) YOY decreased sharply after 1991, which was consistent with recent oligotrophication of the lake. Following the establishment in 1979 and rapid increase of white perch ( Morone americana ) YOY, white bass ( Morone chrysops ) and freshwater drum ( Aplodinotus grunniens ) YOY decreased. Trout-perch ( Percopsis omiscomaycus ) YOY decreased during 1986–1991, but recovered to previous levels during 1991–2001. The recovery coincided with the resurgence of mayflies ( Ephemoptera ) in the lake. CPH of spottail shiner ( Notropis hudsonius ) and emerald shiner ( N. atherinoides ) YOY exhibited no temporal trend between 1961 and the late 1970s to early 1980s. CPH of yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) YOY decreased during 1961–1988, and walleye ( Sander vitreum ) YOY increased overall during the time series. These observations were consistent with published studies of adults in the region. CPH of 4 of the 10 species of YOY considered were greatest during night. CPH for walleye YOY was higher in the morning than in the afternoon, but there was no significant difference between night and morning abundances. The results suggest that (1) CPH of YOY fishes may be a useful monitoring tool for Lake Erie, and (2) offshore monitoring programs that do not include night sampling periods may underestimate recruitment for several common species.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2013

Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010

The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970–2010 and 1990–2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO 2 emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2008

Influence of habitat amount, arrangement, and use on population trend estimates of male Kirtland's warblers

Kirtland's warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) persist in a naturally patchy environment of young, regenerating jack pine forests (i.e., 5-23 years old) created after wildfires and human logging activities. We examined how changing landscape structure from 26 years of forest management and wildfire disturbances influenced population size and spatial dispersion of male Kirtland's warblers within their restricted breeding range in northern Lower Michigan, USA. The male Kirtland's warbler population was six times larger in 2004 (1,322) compared to 1979 (205); the change was nonlinear with 1987 and 1994 identified as significant points of change. In 1987, the population trend began increasing after a slowly declining trend prior to 1987, and the rate of increase appeared to slow after 1994. Total amount of suitable habitat and the relative area of wildfire-regenerated habitat were the most important factors explaining population trend. Suitable habitat increased 149% primarily due to increasing plantations from forest management. The relative amount and location of wildfire-regenerated habitat modified the distribution of males among various habitat types, and the spatial variation in their abundance across the primary breeding range. These findings indicate that the Kirtland's warbler male population shifted its use of habitat types temporally and spatially as the population increased and as the relative availability of habitats changed through time. We demonstrate that researchers and managers need to consider not only habitat quality, but the temporal and the spatial context of habitat availability and population levels when making habitat restoration decisions. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2017

Global trends in mineral commodities for advanced technologies

The U.S. Geological Survey National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) is the U.S. Government agency tasked with the collection, analysis, and dissemination of information on the production, consumption, import, export, and other measures of the flows of non-fuel mineral commodities of importance to the U.S. economy and national security. The NMIC and its agency predecessors have maintained a database of this information, collected and published annually, dating back to the beginning of the twentieth century. Time series analysis of annual information from the NMIC provides the opportunity to identify trends in the supply chains of the minerals and metals which are increasingly in demand for advanced technologies. The identification of trends in data for net import reliance, country concentration of production, global demand, price volatility, and other measures, when combined with world governance indicators, can be used to focus attention on individual mineral commodities where supply chain restrictions may develop. Specific examples for U.S. net import reliance, global tantalum primary mining, and mineral criticality screening are presented to illustrate the utility of time series analysis of trends in mineral commodity supply and demand, the types of data required, and the limitations of currently available information.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2024

How quickly do oil and gas wells “Water Out”? Quantifying and contrasting water production trends

Water production from petroleum (oil and natural gas) wells is a topic of increasing environmental and economic importance, yet quantification efforts have been limited to date, and patterns between and within petroleum plays are largely unscrutinized. Additionally, classification of reservoirs as “unconventional” (also known as “continuous”) carries scientific and regulatory importance, but in some cases the distinction from "conventional" wells is unclear. Using water, oil, and gas production data, we calculated a set of quantitative metrics that elucidate trends in the water-to-petroleum ratio over the life of each producing well. The percent growth of the water-to-petroleum ratio quantifies the degree to which a well “waters out” over time; values calculated for 153,900 wells in 18 oil and gas plays show generally much higher values for conventional wells than for continuous/unconventional wells. Analysis of the percent growth along with the slope and median metrics reveals greater variation between conventional plays and between continuous (unconventional) plays than previously recognized. Further, an example from the Bakken Formation in the Williston Basin, USA, illustrates that, within a single play, the metrics provide insight into spatial variation of water production trends, as influenced by geology and reservoir characteristics. By quantifying the variability of water production trends within individual plays and between plays, including differences between conventional and continuous (unconventional) plays, these results provide a more nuanced view of water production from oil and gas wells than has previously been possible and they illustrate the degree to which water management considerations vary spatially and temporally.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2011

Elevation trends and shrink-swell response of wetland soils to flooding and drying

Given the potential for a projected acceleration in sea-level rise to impact wetland sustainability over the next century, a better understanding is needed of climate-related drivers that influence the processes controlling wetland elevation. Changes in local hydrology and groundwater conditions can cause short-term perturbations to marsh elevation trends through shrink–swell of marsh soils. To better understand the magnitude of these perturbations and their impacts on marsh elevation trends, we measured vertical accretion and elevation dynamics in microtidal marshes in Texas and Louisiana during and after the extreme drought conditions that existed there from 1998 to 2000. In a Louisiana marsh, elevation was controlled by subsurface hydrologic fluxes occurring below the root zone but above the 4 m depth (i.e., the base of the surface elevation table benchmark) that were related to regional drought and local meteorological conditions, with marsh elevation tracking water level variations closely. In Texas, a rapid decline in marsh elevation was related to severe drought conditions, which lowered local groundwater levels. Unfragmented marshes experienced smaller water level drawdowns and more rapid marsh elevation recovery than fragmented marshes. It appears that extended drawdowns lead to increased substrate consolidation making it less resilient to respond to future favorable conditions. Overall, changes in water storage lead to rapid and large short-term impacts on marsh elevation that are as much as five times greater than the long-term elevation trend, indicating the importance of long-term, high-resolution elevation data sets to understand the prolonged effects of water deficits on marsh elevation change.

Louisiana, Texas↗