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Applying a Bayesian weighted surveillance approach to detect chronic wasting disease in white‐tailed deer

Surveillance is critical for early detection of emerging and re‐emerging infectious diseases. Weighted surveillance leverages heterogeneity in infection risk to increase sampling efficiency. Here, we apply a Bayesian approach to estimate weights for 16 surveillance classes of white‐tailed deer in Wisconsin, USA, relative to hunter‐harvested yearling males. We used these weights to conduct a surveillance programme for detecting chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white‐tailed deer at Shenandoah National Park (SHEN) in Virginia, USA. Generally, for surveillance, risk of infection increased with age and was greater in males. Clinical suspect deer had the highest risk, with weight estimates of 33.33 and 9.09 for community‐reported and hunter‐reported suspect deer, respectively. Fawns had the lowest risk with an estimated weight of 0.001. We used surveillance weights for Wisconsin deer to determine sampling effort required to detect a CWD‐positive case in SHEN if prevalence in yearling males ≥0.025. The sampling required to detect CWD was 37–91 adult deer, depending on the adult male:female ratio in the surveillance stream. We collected rectal biopsies from 49 female and 21 male adult deer, and 10 additional samples from vehicle‐killed deer. CWD was not detected and we concluded with 95% probability that prevalence in the reference population (yearling males) was between 0.0% and 3.6%. Synthesis and applications . Our approach allows managers to estimate relative surveillance weights for different host classes and quantify limits of disease detection in real time when only a sample of animals from a population can be tested, resulting in considerable cost savings for agencies performing wildlife disease detection surveillance. Additionally, it provides a rigorous means of estimating prevalence limits when a disease/pathogen is not detected in a sample set. It is therefore applicable to other wildlife, domestic animal and human disease systems, which can be characterized by surveillance classes with heterogeneous probability of infection. This methodology is also extendable to other disciplines such as invasive species, environmental toxicology, and generally, any ecological question seeking to efficiently use scarce financial and human resources to maximize the detection probability of a rare event.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Influences of summer water temperatures on the movement, distribution, and resources use of fluvial Westslope Cutthroat Trout in the South Fork Clearwater River basin

Although many Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi populations in Idaho are robust and stable, population densities in some systems remain below management objectives. In many of those systems, such as in the South Fork Clearwater River (SFCR) system, environmental conditions (e.g., summer temperatures) are hypothesized to limit populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout. Radiotelemetry and snorkeling methods were used to describe seasonal movement patterns, distribution, and habitat use of Westslope Cutthroat Trout in the SFCR during the summers of 2013 and 2014. Sixty-six radio transmitters were surgically implanted into Westslope Cutthroat Trout (170–405 mm TL) from May 30–June 25, 2013, and June 20–July 6, 2014. Sedentary and mobile summer movement patterns by Westslope Cutthroat Trout were observed in the SFCR. Westslope Cutthroat Trout were generally absent from the lower SFCR. In the upper region of the SFCR, fish generally moved from the main-stem SFCR into tributaries as water temperatures increased during the summer. Fish remained in the middle region of the SFCR where water temperatures were cooler than in the upper or lower regions of the SFCR. A spatially explicit water temperature model indicated that the upper and lower regions of the SFCR exceeded thermal tolerance levels of Westslope Cutthroat Trout throughout the summer. During snorkeling, 23 Westslope Cutthroat Trout were observed in 13 sites along the SFCR and at low density (mean ± SD, 0.0003 ± 0.0001 fish/m 2 ). The distribution of fish observed during snorkeling was consistent with the distribution of radio-tagged fish in the SFCR during the summer. Anthropogenic activities (i.e., grazing, mining, road construction, and timber harvest) in the SFCR basin likely altered the natural flow dynamics and temperature regime and thereby limited stream habitat in the SFCR system for Westslope Cutthroat Trout.

Idaho

Environmental factors influencing annual sucker (Catostomus sp.) migration into a Great Lakes tributary

Fish migration in rivers is a growing area of concern as mounting anthropogenic influences, particularly fragmentation from dams and barriers, constitute major threats to global river species diversity. Barriers can impede the movement of fishes between areas critical to the completion of their lifecycle, affecting both population and ecosystem viability. In response, fish passage solutions have been identified as a critical need to maintain fisheries viability in the Laurentian Great Lakes, and around the world. Pivotal to the success of these fish passage solutions is a more complete understanding of the movement phenology and environmental cues that instigate migration. We used a dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) to evaluate environmental triggers of river entry during spring and summer for three size classes of migratory fishes in the Boardman River, a Lake Michigan tributary. Our results indicate that medium size fish (>30 cm and < 50 cm), primarily composed of white sucker Catostomus commersonii and longnose sucker Catostomus catostomus were 21% more likely to enter the river at sunset and 25% less likely at midnight in comparison to midday. Entry rates of medium fish increased 6% for every 1 °C increase in river temperature, 4% for every 1 m 3 /s increase in river discharge from the day prior, and were reduced by 1% for every 10 cm increase in lake level. Understanding these processes in the tributaries of the Great Lakes is important to inform the fish passage solutions currently being developed for the Boardman River, and to inform management regulations for Great Lakes migratory fishes.

Michigan

A computer model to forecast wetland vegetation changes resulting from restoration and protection in coastal Louisiana

The coastal wetlands of Louisiana are a unique ecosystem that supports a diversity of wildlife as well as a diverse community of commercial interests of both local and national importance. The state of Louisiana has established a 5-year cycle of scientific investigation to provide up-to-date information to guide future legislation and regulation aimed at preserving this critical ecosystem. Here we report on a model that projects changes in plant community distribution and composition in response to environmental conditions. This model is linked to a suite of other models and requires input from those that simulate the hydrology and morphology of coastal Louisiana. Collectively, these models are used to assess how alternative management plans may affect the wetland ecosystem through explicit spatial modeling of the physical and biological processes affected by proposed modifications to the ecosystem. We have also taken the opportunity to advance the state-of-the-art in wetland plant community modeling by using a model that is more species-based in its description of plant communities instead of one based on aggregated community types such as brackish marsh and saline marsh. The resulting model provides an increased level of ecological detail about how wetland communities are expected to respond. In addition, the output from this model provides critical inputs for estimating the effects of management on higher trophic level species though a more complete description of the shifts in habitat.

Louisiana

A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience with these workshops led us to conclude that the LIAM can be an effective tool to begin a negotiation and that trust built through the workshops can help create a successful result.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife: An International Jou

Using integrated step-selection analyses to map high-risk electrocution areas for a highly mobile species

Knowledge of animal-movement patterns is a crucial component in identifying areas with high potential for human–wildlife conflict and in prioritizing associated management actions. Electrical energy infrastructure is a major source of mortality for animals worldwide, with millions of birds colliding with or being electrocuted by power lines and power-pole infrastructure each year. Movement, habitat use, and the spatial distribution of electrocution risk can vary with age, but studies of younger age classes are often hampered because these groups are difficult to observe and lack well-defined home ranges. To identify movement patterns and high-use areas of bald eagles in Arizona, USA, we analyzed global positioning system (GPS) telemetry data collected from 13 immature bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) across Arizona between 2017 and 2023. We built multi-scale, integrated step-selection functions that evaluated eagle responses to a suite of environmental covariates. We then used these models to simulate eagle movement and predict habitat use within and surrounding Maricopa County, which contains both the Phoenix Metropolitan Area and the plurality of bald eagle breeding areas in Arizona. We provide a use case for how these simulated movements could be used by resource managers to identify high-risk areas for electrocution. Eagles avoided urban areas and selected steeper slopes, more pronounced ridges, and areas with greater water and wetland land cover. Predicted habitat use by bald eagles was greatest near waterbodies and along ridges and steep slopes, and indicated where power infrastructure may pose greater electrocution risk. We show how integrated step-selection analyses and movement path simulation may be used for subadult animals lacking stable home ranges to predict high-use areas and identify locations with greater potential for negative human–wildlife interactions.

Arizona

Nest-site selection and reproductive success of greater sage-grouse in a fire-affected habitat of northwestern Nevada

Identifying links between micro-habitat selection and wildlife reproduction is imperative to population persistence and recovery. This information is particularly important for landscape species such as greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse). Although this species has been widely studied, because environmental factors can affect sage-grouse populations, local and regional studies are crucial for developing viable conservation strategies. We studied the habitat-use patterns of 71 radio-marked sage-grouse inhabiting an area affected by wildfire in the Virginia Mountains of northwestern Nevada during 2009&ndash;2011 to determine the effect of micro-habitat attributes on reproductive success. We measured standard vegetation parameters at nest and random sites using a multi-scale approach (range&thinsp;=&thinsp;0.01&ndash;15,527&thinsp;ha). We used an information-theoretic modeling approach to identify environmental factors influencing nest-site selection and survival, and determine whether nest survival was a function of resource selection. Sage-grouse selected micro-sites with greater shrub canopy cover and less cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) cover than random sites. Total shrub canopy, including sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) and other shrub species, at small spatial scales (0.8&thinsp;ha and 3.1&thinsp;ha) was the single contributing selection factor to higher nest survival. These results indicate that reducing the risk of wildfire to maintain important sagebrush habitats could be emphasized in sage-grouse conservation strategies in Nevada. Managers may seek to mitigate the influx of annual grass invasion by preserving large intact sagebrush-dominated stands with a mixture of other shrub species. For this area of Nevada, the results suggest that &ge;40% total shrub canopy cover in sage-grouse nesting areas could yield improved reproductive success.

Nevada

Monitoring algal blooms in drinking water reservoirs using the Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager

In this study, we demonstrated that the Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor is a powerful tool that can provide periodic and system-wide information on the condition of drinking water reservoirs. The OLI is a multispectral radiometer (30 m spatial resolution) that allows ecosystem observations at spatial and temporal scales that allow the environmental community and water managers another means to monitor changes in water quality not feasible with field-based monitoring. Using the provisional Land Surface Reflectance product and field-collected chlorophyll- a (chl- a ) concentrations from drinking water monitoring programs in North Carolina and Rhode Island, we compared five established approaches for estimating chl- a concentrations using spectral data. We found that using the three band reflectance approach with a combination of OLI spectral bands 1, 3, and 5 produced the most promising results for accurately estimating chl- a concentrations in lakes ( R 2 value of 0.66; root mean square error value of 8.9 µg l −1 ). Using this model, we forecast the spatial and temporal variability of chl- a for Jordan Lake, a recreational and drinking water source in piedmont North Carolina and several small ponds that supply drinking water in southeastern Rhode Island.

North Carolina

Climate and connectivity mediate overwintering habitat suitability for centrarchids in a large floodplain river network

Availability of suitable overwintering habitat is crucial for the survival of centrarchids in large floodplain rivers. However, there remains uncertainty in the spatiotemporal drivers of suitable conditions. We paired hydrogeomorphic characteristics with environmental data from 1994 to 2018 in individual lentic areas to (1) assess overwintering habitat availability throughout the Upper Mississippi River System using existing habitat suitability indices (HSIs) and (2) explore potential drivers of overall habitat suitability (HSI O ) and its components (dissolved oxygen, temperature, and flow). We found that flow velocities that exceeded suitable thresholds were independently responsible for 53% of nonsuitable habitats, and connectivity with lotic channels and river discharge increased velocity within lentic habitats. Additionally, colder winter conditions reduced water temperature, reducing availability of highly suitable habitat. Our results indicate that although warmer winters could increase the availability of highly suitable habitat for centrarchids, changes in flow regimes could lead to more connected areas becoming unsuitable. Our results provide critical information on factors that can be prioritized to manage centrarchid habitat, which is especially important in the context of uncertain future climate.

upper Mississippi River

Enhancing Great Lakes coastal ecosystems research by initiating engagement between scientists and decision-makers

A disconnect between scientific research and environmental management communities can be a detriment to both. In the case of Great Lakes coastal ecosystems, which are inherently complex and subject to uncertain effects of future climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic drivers, greater collaboration could be beneficial to their sustainability. We capture the challenges and opportunities identified by a scientist/decision-maker co-production workshop focused on the future environmental quality of Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We explain our path through the stakeholder workshop process, our challenges in translating meeting outcomes into actionable items, and lessons learned to bridge gaps between scientists and decision-makers. Additionally, we determine topics and directions identified by decision-makers that can be modeled with existing technologies and others that require further research. These topics may be incorporated into future research efforts and could serve as a shortlist of research priorities that were identified by decision-makers working with coastal wetland issues. Based on lessons learned during and after the workshop, we provide suggestions for bridging the gap between researchers and decision-makers, including sustained engagement between these groups and improved interaction through the beginning, duration, and end of research and/or management efforts.

Great Lakes

Managing conflicts in the River of Grass

Chances are, you would not pack up and move to a new home without first researching the neighborhood, reviewing your finances, and maybe investigating schools nearby. Similarly, you would not buy the first car you find on a magazine cover without first reviewing the technical specifications, exploring your options, and perhaps taking a test drive. Even when making simple purchases online, you probably shop around, check out customer reviews, and scan seller feedback ratings. Rarely do we act on impulse alone when faced with decisions. Rather, we typically start with a vision of what we want before gathering the necessary information, weighing our options, prioritizing our values, and evaluating possible tradeoffs. In making choices that range from lighthearted to life-changing, we use this commonsense strategy every day of our lives. Environmental decision-making is no different. For decades, natural resource managers faced with complicated problems have made decisions by breaking them into smaller components that are easier to approach. And like our day-to day decisions, the process is ideally guided by a shared vision of the future. However, it can become complicated when multiple, seemingly disparate views on what the future should hold emerge. As Lewis Carroll once wrote, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” Divining a vision of the future for the Florida Everglades and making supporting decisions is a complex undertaking. But unlike Alice thrust through the looking glass, we have tools and techniques to help us make sense of it all. The application of tools to help decision-making can move us closer to the successful restoration of this imperiled landscape.

Florida

Environmental contaminants in California condors

Five wild California condors ( Gymnogyps californianus ) that died in 1980-86 were necropsied and tissues were analyzed for environmental contaminants. Three died of lead (Pb) poisoning, 1 presumably of cyanide (CN) poisoning, and 1 nestling of handling shock. Organochlorine concentrations were low in 4 condors that were analyzed for these contaminants. Blood samples from 14 wild and 14 captive condors were analyzed primarily for Pb. Five of 14 wild condors sampled had elevated (> 0.70 ppm) concentrations of Pb in blood whereas Pb concentrations in all captive condors were low. Lead levels in individual birds often fluctuated over time. Lead exposure, especially poisoning, was a major factor affecting the wild California condor population during 1982-86. The probable source of Pb was bullet fragments in carrion on which condors were feeding.

California

Identifying the decision to be supported: a review of papers from environmental modelling and software

Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 in Environmental Modelling and Software that used the phrase &ldquo;decision support system&rdquo; or &ldquo;decision support tool&rdquo;, and which are characteristic of different sectors. In our review, 41% of the systems and tools related to the water resources sector, 34% were related to agriculture, and 22% to the conservation of fish, wildlife, and protected area management. Only 60% of the papers were deemed to be reporting on DSS. This was based on the papers reviewed not having directly identified a specific decision to be supported. We also report on the techniques that were used to identify the decisions, such as formal survey, focus group, expert opinion, or sole judgment of the author(s). The primary underlying modelling system, e.g., expert system, agent based model, Bayesian belief network, geographical information system (GIS), and the like was categorised next. Finally, since decision support typically should target some aspect of unstructured decisions, we subjectively determined to what degree this was the case. In only 23% of the papers reviewed, did the system appear to tackle unstructured decisions. This knowledge should be useful in helping workers in the field develop more effective systems and tools, especially by being exposed to the approaches in different, but related, disciplines. We propose that a standard blueprint for reporting on DSS be developed for consideration by journal editors to aid them in filtering papers that use the term, &ldquo;decision support&rdquo;.

Leipzig

Management, morphological, and environmental factors influencing Douglas-fir bark furrows in the Oregon Coast Range

Many land managers in the Pacific Northwest have the goal of increasing late-successional forest structures. Despite the documented importance of Douglas-fir tree bark structure in forested ecosystems, little is known about factors influencing bark development and how foresters can manage development. This study investigated the relative importance of tree size, growth, environmental factors, and thinning on Douglas-fir bark furrow characteristics in the Oregon Coast Range. Bark furrow depth, area, and bark roughness were measured for Douglas-fir trees in young heavily thinned and unthinned sites and compared to older reference sites. We tested models for relationships between bark furrow response and thinning, tree diameter, diameter growth, and environmental factors. Separately, we compared bark responses measured on trees used by bark-foraging birds with trees with no observed usage. Tree diameter and diameter growth were the most important variables in predicting bark characteristics in young trees. Measured environmental variables were not strongly related to bark characteristics. Bark furrow characteristics in old trees were influenced by tree diameter and surrounding tree densities. Young trees used by bark foragers did not have different bark characteristics than unused trees. Efforts to enhance Douglas-fir bark characteristics should emphasize retention of larger diameter trees' growth enhancement.

Oregon

Observations of health indices used to monitor a tailwater trout fishery

Health of the population of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in the San Juan River tailwater was monitored to determine the effects of potential crowding from a reduced winter flow test at Navajo Dam, northwestern New Mexico. A systematic necropsy-based health profile provided a rapid method to detect gross changes in the health of the fish population. The health assessment index (HAI) was calculated to quantify the necropsy system and allow statistical comparisons of data sets. Other suborganismic indices were selected to encompass a range of responses specific to the stress of environmental alterations: physiology assessment using total protein and percent muscle lipids, an immune assessment using serum lysozyme, and a cellular-based evaluation using histology. The HAI values showed no clear trend in fish health, although significant differences occurred among fish samples during the test. Significant declines in condition factors and percent muscle lipids throughout the study suggested a seasonal effect. Total protein and lysozyme levels were variable, showing no discernible patterns. Most histological observations appeared to be incidental during the study. Although there was no clear demonstrable effect of altered flow on fish health, this study revealed the sensitivities of various health indicators, which may help in designing future studies and supporting or interpreting results using these approaches.

New Mexico

Including independent estimates and uncertainty to quantify total abundance of fish migrating in a large river system: walleye ( Sander vitreus ) in the Maumee River, Ohio

Walleye (Sander vitreus) in Lake Erie is a valuable and migratory species that spawns in tributaries. We used hydroacoustic sampling, gill net sampling, and Bayesian state-space modeling to estimate the spawning stock abundance, characterize size and sex structure, and explore environmental factors cuing migration of walleye in the Maumee River for 2011 and 2012. We estimated the spawning stock abundance to be between 431,000 and 1,446,000 individuals in 2011 and between 386,400 and 857,200 individuals in 2012 (95% Bayesian credible intervals). A back-calculation from a concurrent larval fish study produced an estimate of 78,000 to 237,000 spawners for 2011. The sex ratio was skewed towards males early in the spawning season but approached 1:1 later, and larger individuals entered the river earlier in the season than smaller individuals. Walleye migration was greater during low river discharge and intermediate temperatures. Our approach to estimating absolute abundance and uncertainty as well as characterization of the spawning stock could improve assessment and management of this species, and our methodology is applicable to other diadromous populations.

Ohio

Resource management and nonmarket valuation research

Survey based nonmarket valuation research is often regarded as economics research. However, resource economists need to be aware of and acknowledge the manifold information sources that they employ in order to enhance the policy credibility of their studies. Communication between resource economists and practitioners of allied disciplines including chemistry, civil engineering, sociology, and anthropology are often neglected. Recent resource allocation policy debates have given rise to an extensive discussion of methodological issues that narrow the scope of the subject. The present paper provides a format for the presentation of nonmarket valuation research results that emphasizes the manifold links between economics studies that employ different methodologies to estimate nonmarket resource values. A more robust emphasis on the interlocking features of the different approaches for estimating nonmarket benefits should foster appreciation of the transdisciplinary aspects of the subject.

International Journal of Environmental Studies

Improved understanding and prediction of freshwater fish communities through the use of joint species distribution models

Two primary goals in fisheries research are to ( i ) understand how habitat and environmental conditions influence the distribution of fishes across the landscape and ( ii ) make predictions about how fish communities will respond to environmental and anthropogenic change. In inland, freshwater ecosystems, quantitative approaches traditionally used to accomplish these goals largely ignore the effects of species interactions (competition, predation, mutualism) on shaping community structure, potentially leading to erroneous conclusions regarding habitat associations and unrealistic predictions about species distributions. Using two contrasting case studies, we highlight how joint species distribution models (JSDMs) can address the aforementioned deficiencies by simultaneously quantifying the effects of abiotic habitat variables and species dependencies. In particular, we show that conditional predictions of species occurrence from JSDMs can better predict species presence or absence compared with predictions that ignore species dependencies. JSDMs also allow for the estimation of site-specific probabilities of species co-occurrence, which can be informative for generating hypotheses about species interactions. JSDMs provide a flexible framework that can be used to address a variety of questions in fisheries science and management.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences