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Defining oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana for restoration and aquaculture

Eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) are a critical ecological and commercial resource in the northern Gulf of Mexico facing changing environmental conditions from river management and climate change. In Louisiana, USA, development of restored reefs, and off-bottom aquaculture would benefit from the identification of locations supportive of sustainable oyster populations ( i.e., metapopulations) and high consistent production. This study defines four oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana based on environmental conditions known to affect oyster survival, growth, and reproduction. Daily data from 2015 to 2019 were interpolated to generate salinity and temperature profiles across Louisiana's estuaries, which were then used to classify zones based on monthly and annual salinity mean and variance. Zones were classified as supportive of (1) broodstock sanctuary reefs (i.e., support reproductive populations), (2) productive reefs during dry (salty) years, (3) productive reefs during wet (fresh) years, and (4) off-bottom aquaculture development. Of the 38,000 km 2 investigated, over 11,000 km 2 of potential oyster zone area was identified across the Louisiana coast. The Broodstock Sanctuary Zone was the smallest (∼540 km 2 ), as salinity variance limited this zone in many areas, as it is driven largely by riverine inputs across many estuaries. Located up-estuary (Dry Restoration Zone) and down-estuary (Wet Restoration Zone) of the Broodstock Sanctuary Zone, Dry and Wet Restoration Zone areas covered ∼2400 km 2 and ∼3900 km 2 , respectively. Mapped reefs in Louisiana currently exist largely within the Dry Restoration zones, suggesting a potential strategy to focus reef development in Wet Restoration zones to ensure reef network sustainability through years with high precipitation and river inflow. The off-bottom Aquaculture Zone was the largest (∼6400 km 2 ) zone identified, with much of this area located more down-estuary and off-shore. Accounting for variable water quality conditions enables the development of a network of reefs resilient to environmental variability, and more stable areas for consistent off-bottom aquaculture production. Spatial planning and identification of oyster resource zones reduces focus on individual reef success and supports management of oyster metapopulation outcomes, while identifying zones supportive of off-bottom aquaculture.

Louisiana

Holocene landscape response to seasonality of storms in the Mojave Desert

New optically stimulated and radiocarbon ages for alluvial fan and lake deposits in the Mojave Desert are presented, which greatly improves the temporal resolution of surface processes. The new Mojave Desert climate-landscape record is particularly detailed for the late Holocene. Evidence from ephemeral lake deposits and landforms indicates times of sustained stream flow during a wet interval of the latter part of the Medieval Warm Period at ca. AD 1290 and during the Little Ice Age at ca. AD 1650. The former lakes postdate megadroughts of the Medieval Warm Period, whereas the latter match the Maunder Minimum of the Little Ice Age. Periods of alluvial fan aggradation across the Mojave Desert are 14–9 cal ka and 6–3 cal ka. This timing largely correlates to times of increased sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of California and enhanced warm-season monsoons. This correlation suggests that sustained alluvial fan aggradation may be driven by intense summer-season storms. These data suggest that the close proximity of the Mojave Desert to the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California promotes a partitioning of landscape-process responses to climate forcings that vary with seasonality of the dominant storms. Cool-season Pacific frontal storms cause river flow, ephemeral lakes, and fan incision, whereas periods of intense warm-season storms cause hillslope erosion and alluvial fan aggradation. The proposed landscape-process partitioning has important implications for hazard mitigation given that climate change may increase sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of California, which indirectly could increase future alluvial fan aggradation.

California

Microbial community responses to 17 years of altered precipitation are seasonally dependent and coupled to co-varying effects of water content on vegetation and soil C

Precipitation amount and seasonal timing determine the duration and distribution of water available for plant and microbial activity in the cold desert sagebrush steppe. In this study, we sought to determine if a sustained shift in the amount and timing of precipitation would affect soil microbial diversity, community composition, and soil carbon (C) storage. Field plots were irrigated (+200 mm) during the dormant or growing-season for 17 years. Microbial community responses were assessed over the course of a year at two depths (15–20 cm, 95–100 cm) by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP), along with co-occurring changes in plant cover and edaphic properties. Bacterial richness, Shannon Weaver diversity, and composition in shallow soils (15–20 cm) as well as evenness in deep soils (95–100 cm) differed across irrigation treatments during July. Irrigation timing affected fungal community diversity and community composition during the dormant season and most strongly in deep soils (95–100 cm). Dormant-season irrigation increased the ratio of shrubs to forbs and reduced soil C in shallow soils by 16% relative to ambient conditions. It is unclear whether or not soil C will continue to decline with continued treatment application or if microbial adaptation could mitigate sustained soil C losses. Future changes in precipitation timing will affect soil microbes in a seasonally dependent manner and be coupled to co-varying effects of water content on vegetation and soil C.

Soil Biology and Biochemistry

Bright spots for inland fish and fisheries to guide future hydropower development

Hydropower production is one of the greatest threats to fluvial ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Now that we have entered the Anthropocene , there is an opportunity to reflect on what might constitute a ‘sustainable’ Anthropocene in the context of hydropower and riverine fish populations. Considering elements of existing practices that promote favorable social-ecological outcomes (i.e., ‘bright spots’) is timely given that there are plans to expand hydropower capacity in previously undammed rivers, intensify dam development in some of the world's largest river systems, and re-license existing facilities. We approach this from a pragmatic perspective: for the foreseeable future, hydropower will likely remain an important source of renewable electricity. To offer support for moving toward a more ‘sustainable’ Anthropocene, we provide syntheses of best practices during the siting, design, construction, operation, and compensation phases of hydropower development to minimize impacts on inland fish. For each phase, we offer positive examples (or what might be considered ‘bright spots’) pertaining to some of the approaches described within our syntheses, acknowledging that these projects may not be viewed as without ecological and (or) societal detriment by all stakeholders. Our findings underscore the importance of protecting critical habitat and free-flowing river reaches through careful site selection and basin-scale planning, infrastructure designs that minimize reservoir effects and facilitate safe passage of fish, construction of hydropower plants using best practices that minimize long-term damage, operating guidelines that mimic natural flow conditions, and compensation that is lasting, effective, inclusive, and locally relevant. Learning from these ‘bright spots’ may require engagement of diverse stakeholders, professionals, and governments at scales that extend well beyond a given site, river, or even basin. Indeed, environmental planning that integrates hydropower development into broader discussions of conserving regional biodiversity and ecosystem services will be of utmost importance.

Water Biology and Security

An evaluation of lake trout reproductive habitat on Clay Banks Reef, northwestern Lake Michigan

The extinction of the native populations of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in Lake Michigan in about 1956 has been followed by a decades-long attempt to reestablish self-sustaining populations of this valuable species in habitats it formerly occupied throughout the lake. One of the most recent management strategies designed to facilitate recovery was to make a primary management objective the establishment of sanctuaries where stocked lake trout could be protected and self-sustaining populations reestablished. In the present study we employed habitat survey and mapping techniques, field and laboratory bioassays, egg traps, sediment traps, and gill nets to examine the potential for successful natural reproduction by stocked lake trout on Clay Banks Reef in the Door-Kewaunee sanctuary in Wisconsin waters of Lake Michigan. Our study revealed (1) there was suitable habitat on the reef to support the production of viable fry, (2) spawner abundance on the reef was the highest recorded in the great lakes, and (3) eggs taken from spawners on the reef and held on the reef in plexiglas incubators hatched and produced fry that survived through swim-up. We conclude that Clay Banks Reef has the potential to support successful natural reproduction by stocked lake trout.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Lake trout restoration in the Great Lakes: stock-size criteria for natural reproduction

We examined the question of whether the lake trout restoration program in the Great Lakes has developed brood stocks of adequate size to sustain natural reproduction. Stock size criteria were developed from areas of the Great Lakes where natural reproduction has been successful (defined as detection of age-1 or older recruits by assessment fishing). We contrasted them with stocks in areas with no natural reproduction. Based on the relative abundance of spawners measured in the fall and the presence or absence of natural reproduction in 24 areas of the Great Lakes, we found three distinct sets of lake trout populations. In seven areas of successful natural reproduction, the catch-per-unit-effort (CPE) of spawners ranged from 17 to 135 fish/305 m of gillnet. Stock sizes in these areas were used as a gauge against which stocks in other areas were contrasted. We conclude that stock densities of 17-135 fish/305 m of gill net are adequate for natural reproduction, provided that all other requirements are met. No natural reproduction has been detected in seven other areas, where CPEs of spawners ranged from only 3 to 5 fish/305 m. We conclude that spawning stocks of only 3-5 fish/305 m of net are inadequate to develop measurable natural reproduction. Natural reproduction has also not been detected in ten areas where CPEs of spawners ranged from 43 to 195 fish/305 m of net. We conclude that spawning stocks in these ten areas were adequate to sustain natural reproduction, but that some factor other than parental stock size prevented recruitment of wild lake trout.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Bathythermal distribution, maturity, and growth of lake trout strains stocked in U.S. waters of Lake Ontario, 1978-1993

Bathythermal distributions, sexual maturity, and growth of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) strains stocked in Lake Ontario were determined for fish collected with trawls and gill nets in 1978-93. The purpose was to augment the basis for deciding which strains to continue stocking in an effort to reestablish a self-sustaining population. The Clearwater Lake (CWL) strain was found in shallower, warmer water than all other strains; the Seneca Lake (SEN) strain was usually shallower than the Jenny Lake (JEN) and Lake Superior (SUP) strains at ages 1 and 2 but was usually deeper at age 3 and older. Depth distribution of the 'Ontario strain'--from gametes of several strains that survived to maturity in Lake Ontario-- was similar to that of the SEN and SUP strains. About half the males matured at age 4 and half the females at age 5; males < 500 mm and females < 600 mm long were rarely mature. Least-sqaures mean lengths and weights of the CWL strain were greater than those of all other strains through age 4. At age 7 and older, CWL and JEN fish were generally smaller than all other strains. Means lengths and weights of males and females of the same age and strain frequently differed at age 4 and older. Growth in weight at age 4 and older was not associated with biomass indices of prey fishes. Differences in growth rates among strains were associated with bathythermal distribution which is a heritable trait. Weight-length regressions differed by year, sex, and stage of maturity but were rarely different among strains. Competition for space appeared to affect condition of large lake trout. Growth rates and maturity schedules provide little basis for recommending stocking one strain in preference to another. Depth ranges of strains overlapped widely, but lake trout occupied only about one-fourth of available bottom habitat. Stocking several strains should be continued to maximize use of sustainable habitat.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Fifteen years of WRTDS for advancing water-quality science: A critical review of methodological developments and global applications

Contamination by nutrients, major ions, and metals poses a major threat to global water sustainability. Understanding how these pollutants vary across time and space requires long-term monitoring and robust statistical approaches. Traditional methods, however, often struggle to account for streamflow variability, seasonality, and nonlinear responses. Introduced in 2010, the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method offers a flexible, data-driven framework that generates both observed and flow-normalized estimates of concentration and load. Over the past 15 years, WRTDS has become a state-of-the-art tool for water-quality science and management, with applications spanning a wide range of hydrologic, climatic, and policy contexts─including major watersheds across North America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and the Arctic. In this review of WRTDS, we document the method’s major advancements, examine its expanding geographic and thematic applications, and summarize its relevance to water-quality management programs and policies worldwide. We also discuss its performance relative to other regression and machine-learning approaches. Finally, we identify key priorities for future development to support the continued evolution of WRTDS as a trusted and practical tool for scientists and managers working to protect and sustain water resources.

Environmental Science and Technology

The need for simultaneous evaluation of ecosystem services and land use change

We are living in a period of massive global change. This rate of change may be almost without precedent in geologic history ( 1 ). Even the most remote areas of the planet are influenced by human activities. Modern landscapes have been highly modified to accommodate a growing human population that the United Nations has forecast to peak at 9.1 billion by 2050. Over this past century, reliance on services from ecosystems has increased significantly and, over past decades, sustainability of our modern, intensively managed ecosystems has been a topic of serious international concern ( 1 ). Numerous papers addressing a particular land-use change effect on specific ecosystem services have recently been published. For example, there is currently great interest in increasing biofuel production to achieve energy inde- pendence goals and recent papers have independently focused attention on impacts of land-use change on single ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration ( 2 ) and many others (e.g., water availability, biodiversity, pollination). However, land-use change clearly affects myriad ecosystem services simultaneously. Hence, a broader perspective and context is needed to evaluate and understand interrelated affects on multiple ecosystem services, especially as we strive for the goal of sustainably managing global ecosystems. Similarly, land uses affect ecosystem services synergistically; single land-use evaluations may be misleading because the overall impact on an ecosystem is not evaluated. A more holistic approach would provide a means and framework to characterize how land-use change affects provisioning of goods and services of complete ecosystems.

Environmental Science & Technology

Impacts of the 2004 tsunami on groundwater resources in Sri Lanka

The 26 December 2004 tsunami caused widespread destruction and contamination of coastal aquifers across southern Asia. Seawater filled domestic open dug wells and also entered the aquifers via direct infiltration during the first flooding waves and later as ponded seawater infiltrated through the permeable sands that are typical of coastal aquifers. In Sri Lanka alone, it is estimated that over 40,000 drinking water wells were either destroyed or contaminated. From February through September 2005, a team of United States, Sri Lankan, and Danish water resource scientists and engineers surveyed the coastal groundwater resources of Sri Lanka to develop an understanding of the impacts of the tsunami and to provide recommendations for the future of coastal water resources in south Asia. In the tsunami‐affected areas, seawater was found to have infiltrated and mixed with fresh groundwater lenses as indicated by the elevated groundwater salinity levels. Seawater infiltrated through the shallow vadose zone as well as entered aquifers directly through flooded open wells. Our preliminary transport analysis demonstrates that the intruded seawater has vertically mixed in the aquifers because of both forced and free convection. Widespread pumping of wells to remove seawater was effective in some areas, but overpumping has led to upconing of the saltwater interface and rising salinity. We estimate that groundwater recharge from several monsoon seasons will reduce salinity of many sandy Sri Lankan coastal aquifers. However, the continued sustainability of these small and fragile aquifers for potable water will be difficult because of the rapid growth of human activities that results in more intensive groundwater pumping and increased pollution. Long‐term sustainability of coastal aquifers is also impacted by the decrease in sand replenishment of the beaches due to sand mining and erosion.

Water Resources Research

Subevents of long-period seismicity: implications for hydrothermal dynamics during the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens

One of the most striking aspects of seismicity during the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) was the precise regularity in occurrence of repetitive long-period (LP) or “drumbeat” events over sustained time periods. However, this precise regularity was not always observed, and at times the temporal occurrence of LP events became more random. In addition, accompanying the dominant LP class of events during the 2004–2008 MSH eruption, there was a near-continuous, randomly occurring series of smaller seismic events. These subevents are not always simply small-amplitude versions of the dominant LP class of events but appear instead to result from a separate random process only loosely coupled to the main LP source mechanism. We present an analysis of the interevent time and amplitude distributions of the subevents, using waveform cross correlation to separate LP events from the subevents. We also discuss seismic tremor that accompanied the 8 March 2005 phreatic explosion event at MSH. This tremor consists of a rapid succession of LPs and subevents triggered during the explosion, in addition to broadband noise from the sustained degassing. Immediately afterward, seismicity returned to the pre-explosion occurrence pattern. This triggering in relation to the rapid ejection of steam from the system, and subsequent return to pre-explosion seismicity, suggests that both seismic event types originated in a region of the subsurface hydrothermal system that was (1) in contact with the reservoir feeding the 8 March 2005 phreatic explosion but (2) not destroyed or drained by the explosion event. Finally, we discuss possible thermodynamic conditions in a pressurized hydrothermal crack that could give rise to seismicity. Pressure drop estimates for typical LP events are not generally large enough to perturb pure water in a shallow hydrothermal crack into an unstable state. However, dissolved volatiles such as CO 2 may lead to a more unstable system, increasing the seismogenic potential of a hydrothermal crack subject to rapid heat flux. The interaction of hydrothermal and magmatic systems beneath MSH in 2004–2008 thus appears able to explain a wide range of observed phenomena, including subevents, LP events, larger (M d > 2) events, and phreatic explosions.

Washington

Linking subsurface to surface using gas emission and melt inclusion data at Mount Cleveland volcano, Alaska

Mount Cleveland is one of Alaska's most active volcanoes, yet little is known about the magmatic system driving persistent and dynamic volcanic activity. Volcanic gas and melt inclusion (MI) data from 2016 were combined to investigate shallow magmatic processes. SO 2 emission rates were between 166 and 324 t/day and the H 2 O/SO 2 was 600 ± 53, whereas CO 2 and H 2 S were below detection. Olivine‐, clinopyroxene‐, and plagioclase‐hosted MIs have up to 3.8 wt.% H 2 O, 514 ppm CO 2 , and 2,320 ppm S. Equilibration depths, based on MI H 2 O contents, suggest that a magmatic column extended from 0.5 to 3.0 km (~10–60 MPa). We used MI data to empirically model open‐system H‐C‐S degassing from 0 to 12 km and found that a column of magma between 0.5 and 3 km could produce the measured gas H 2 O/SO 2 ratio. However, additional magma deeper than 3 km is required to sustain emissions over periods greater than days to weeks, if the observed vent dimension is a valid proxy for the conduit. Assuming an initial S content of 2,320 ppm, the total magma supply needed to sustain the annual SO 2 flux was 5 to 9.8 Mm 3 /yr, suggesting a maximum intrusive‐to‐extrusive ratio of 13:1. The model predicts degassing of <50 t/day CO 2 for July 2016, which corresponds to a maximum predicted CO 2 /SO 2 of 0.2. Ultimately, frequent recharge from deeper, less degassed magma is required to drive the continuous activity observed over multiple years. During periods of recharge we would expect lower H 2 O/SO 2 and measurable volcanic CO 2 .

Alaska

Vegetation loss following vertical drowning of Mississippi River deltaic wetlands leads to faster microbial decomposition and decreases in soil carbon

Wetland ecosystems hold nearly a third of the global soil carbon pool, but as wetlands rapidly disappear the fate of this stored soil carbon is unclear. The aim of this study was to quantify and then link potential rates of microbial decomposition after vertical drowning of vegetated tidal marshes in coastal Louisiana to known drivers of anaerobic decomposition altered by vegetation loss. Profiles of potential CH 4 and CO 2 production (surface to 60 cm deep) were measured during anaerobic incubations, organic matter chemistry was assessed with infrared spectroscopy, and soil porewater nutrients and redox potentials were measured in the field along a chronosequence of wetland loss. After vertical drowning, pond soils had lower redox potentials, higher pH values, lower soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations, lower lignin: polysaccharide ratios, more NH 4 + and PO 4 3− , and higher rates of potential CO 2 release than vegetated marsh soils. Potential CH 4 production was similar in vegetated marshes and open water ponds, with depth-dependent decreases in CH 4 production as soil carbon concentrations increased. In these anoxic soils, vegetation loss exerts a primary control on decomposition rates because flooding drives sustained increases in porewater nutrient availability (NH 4 + and PO 4 3 , dissolved organic carbon) and decreases in redox potential (from −150 to −500 mV) that lead to higher potential CO 2 fluxes within a few years. Without new carbon inputs following wetland loss, the sustained decomposition in open water ponds may lead to losses of stored soil carbon and could influence global carbon budgets.

Louisiana

Resonance of a fluid-driven crack: Radiation properties and implications for the source of long-period events and harmonic tremor

A dynamic source model is presented, in which a three-dimensional crack containing a viscous compressible fluid is excited into resonance by an impulsive pressure transient applied over a small area ΔS of the crack surface. The crack excitation depends critically on two dimensionless parameters called the crack stiffness, C = ( b /μ)( L / d ), and viscous damping loss, F = (12η L )/(ρ ƒ d 2 α), where b is the bulk modulus, η is the viscosity, ρ ƒ is the density of the fluid, μ is the rigidity, α is the compressional velocity of the solid, L is the crack length, and d is the crack thickness. The first parameter characterizes the ability of the crack to vibrate and shapes the spectral signature of the source, and the second quantifies the effect of fluid viscosity on the duration of resonance. Resonance is sustained by a very slow wave trapped in the fluid-filled crack. This guided wave, called the crack wave, is similar to the tube wave propagating in a fluid-filled borehole; it is inversely dispersive, showing a phase velocity that decreases with increasing wavelength, and its wave speed is always lower than the acoustic velocity of the fluid, decreasing rapidly as the crack stiffness increases. The source spectrum shows many sharp peaks characterizing the individual modes of vibration of the crack; the variation of spectral shape, both in the number and width of peaks, is surprisingly complex, reflecting the interference between the lateral and longitudinal modes of resonance, as well as nodes for these modes. The far-field spectrum is marked by narrow-band dominant and subdominant peaks that reflect the interaction of the various source modes. The frequency of the dominant spectral peak radiated by the source is independent of the radiation direction. The frequency, bandwidth, and spacing of the resonant peaks are strongly dependent on the crack stiffness, larger values of the stiffness factor shifting these peaks to lower frequencies and decreasing their bandwidth. The excitation of a particular mode depends on the position of the trigger and on the extent of the crack surface affected by the pressure transient. Fluid viscosity decreases the amplitudes of the main spectral peaks, smears out the finer structure of the spectrum, and greatly reduces the duration of the radiated signal. The energy loss by radiation is stronger for high frequencies, producing a seismic signature that is marked by a high-frequency content near the onset of the signal and dominated by a longer-period component of much longer duration in the signal coda. Such signature is in harmony with those displayed by long-period events observed on active volcanoes and in hydrofracture experiments. The very low velocity which is possible in a crack with high stiffness ( C ≥ 100) also provides an attractive explanation for very long period tremor, such as type 2 tremor at Aso volcano, Japan, without the requirement of an unrealistically large magma container. The standing wave pattern set up on the crack surface by the sustained resonance in the fluid is observable in the near field of the crack, suggesting that the location and extent of the source may be estimated from the mapping of the pattern of nodes and antinodes seen in its vicinity. According to the model, the long-period event and harmonic tremor share the same source but differ in the boundary conditions for fluid flow and in the triggering mechanism setting up the resonance of the source, the former being viewed as the impulse response of the tremor generating system and the latter representing the excitation due to more complex forcing functions.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth

Ground water and climate change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

Nature Climate Change

The contribution of water radiolysis to marine sedimentary life

Water radiolysis continuously produces H 2 and oxidized chemicals in wet sediment and rock. Radiolytic H 2 has been identified as the primary electron donor (food) for microorganisms in continental aquifers kilometers below Earth’s surface. Radiolytic products may also be significant for sustaining life in subseafloor sediment and subsurface environments of other planets. However, the extent to which most subsurface ecosystems rely on radiolytic products has been poorly constrained, due to incomplete understanding of radiolytic chemical yields in natural environments. Here we show that all common marine sediment types catalyse radiolytic H 2 production, amplifying yields by up to 27X relative to pure water. In electron equivalents, the global rate of radiolytic H 2 production in marine sediment appears to be 1-2% of the global organic flux to the seafloor. However, most organic matter is consumed at or near the seafloor, whereas radiolytic H 2 is produced at all sediment depths. Comparison of radiolytic H 2 consumption rates to organic oxidation rates suggests that water radiolysis is the principal source of biologically accessible energy for microbial communities in marine sediment older than a few million years. Where water permeates similarly catalytic material on other worlds, life may also be sustained by water radiolysis.

Nature Communications

New interventions are needed to save coral reefs

Since 2014, coral reefs worldwide have been subjected to the most extensive, prolonged and damaging heat wave in recorded history1. Large sections of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) bleached in response to heat stress in 2016 and 2017 — the first back-to-back event on record. Such severe coral bleaching results in widespread loss of reef habitat and biodiversity. Globally, we are facing catastrophic decline of these ecosystems, which sustain services valued at around $US 10 trillion per year2, are home to over a million species3, and feed and support the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people4. Model predictions indicate that mass coral bleaching could become the new norm by 2050 (ref. 5). Critically, even if global warming can be kept within 1.5⁰C above preindustrial levels, shallow tropical seas would warm at least 0.4°C in coming decades, triggering frequent bleaching of the most sensitive habitat-forming coral species6. This outlook poses a time-critical decision challenge for management and conservation. Existing conservation approaches, despite innovative governance arrangements7, could simply become insufficient to protect coral reefs under any expected climate future. Thus, for coral reefs to remain resilient and their services sustained, we argue that new and potentially riskier interventions must be implemented alongside conventional management efforts and strong action to curb global warming. We build the case for this strategy below.

Nature Ecology & Evolution

Substitution of inland fisheries with aquaculture and chicken undermines human nutrition in the Peruvian Amazon

With declining capture fisheries production, maintaining nutrient supplies largely hinges on substituting wild fish with economically comparable farmed animals. Although such transitions are increasingly commonplace across global inland and coastal communities, their nutritional consequences are unknown. Here, using human demographic and health information, and fish nutrient composition data from the Peruvian Amazon, we show that substituting wild inland fisheries with chicken and aquaculture has the potential to exacerbate iron deficiencies and limit essential fatty acid supplies in a region already experiencing high prevalence of anaemia and malnutrition. Substituting wild fish with chicken, however, can increase zinc and protein supplies. Chicken and aquaculture production also increase greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural land use and eutrophication. Thus, policies that enable access to wild fisheries and their sustainable management while improving the quality, diversity and environmental impacts of farmed species will be instrumental in ensuring healthy and sustainable food systems.

Peruvian Amazon