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USGS2021

TrendPowerTool: A lookup tool for estimating the statistical power of a monitoring program to detect population trends

A simulation-based power analysis can be used to estimate the sample sizes needed for a successful monitoring program, but requires technical expertise and sometimes extensive computing resources. We developed a web-based lookup app, called TrendPowerTool ( https://www.usgs.gov/apps/TrendPowerTool/ ), to provide guidance for ecological monitoring programs when resources are not available for a simulation-based power analysis. TrendPowerTool is implemented through the shiny package in R, but is accessible through a webpage without the need for users to install any software. By drawing on results of 1.4 million scenarios that we simulated on a supercomputer, TrendPowerTool quickly and easily provides an estimate of the statistical power to detect a population trend of a particular magnitude with a planned monitoring program, based on user-specified parameters for the monitoring design and population of interest. TrendPowerTool provides a user-friendly interface that retrieves results instantaneously, facilitating the important step of conducting a power analysis when designing monitoring programs.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2006

Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population . We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline . Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes . Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline . These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline . The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population .

California↗

USGS2014

Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence information from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project, and satellite and surface observations of fuel conditions in the form of the Fire Potential Index, to estimate two aspects of fire danger: 1) the probability that a 1 acre ignition will result in a 100+ acre fire, and 2) the probabilities of having at least 1, 2, 3, or 4 large fires within a Predictive Services Area in the forthcoming week. These statistical processes are the main thrust of the paper and are used to produce two daily national forecasts that are available from the U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and via the Wildland Fire Assessment System. A validation study of our forecasts for the 2013 fire season demonstrated good agreement between observed and forecasted values.

Book↗

USGS2016

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg 0 ) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (&sim;1–2% y −1 ) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y −1 ). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: ( i ) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; ( ii ) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and ( iii ) they do not properly account for the change in Hg 0 /Hg II speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO 2 and NO x . We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg 0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg 0 concentrations and in Hg II wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO 2 and NO x emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS1983

Discovery of a Late Triassic basin north of Boston and some implications as to post-Paleozoic tectonics in northeastern Massachusetts (USA)

As deduced from various data the Triassic-Jurassic Middleton basin-trends NE and is probably approx 5.7km in length and no >0.5km in width. Two sets of dikes which have been K/Ar dated as Late Triassic-Early Jurassic have the same NNE strikes as strike-slip faults. There are indications that a tectonic event of some importance may have occurred in Middle Mesozoic time. -from Author

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

Collection methods and quality assessment for Escherichia coli, water quality, and microbial source tracking data within Tumacácori National Historical Park and the upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona, 2015-16

Tumacácori National Historical Park protects the culturally important Mission, San José de Tumacácori, while also managing a portion of the ecologically diverse riparian corridor of the Santa Cruz River. This report describes the methods and quality assurance procedures used in the collection of water samples for the analysis of Escherichia coli ( E. coli ), microbial source tracking markers, suspended sediment, water-quality parameters, turbidity, and the data collection for discharge and stage; the process for data review and approval is also described. Finally, this report provides a quantitative assessment of the quality of the E. coli , microbial source tracking, and suspended sediment data. The data-quality assessment revealed that bias attributed to field and laboratory contamination was minimal, with E. coli detections in only 3 out of 33 field blank samples analyzed. Concentrations in the field blanks were several orders of magnitude lower than environmental concentrations. The microbial source tracking (MST) field blank was below the detection limit for all MST markers analyzed. Laboratory blanks for E. coli at the USGS Arizona Water Science Center and laboratory blanks for MST markers at the USGS Ohio Water Microbiology Laboratory were all below the detection limit. Irreplicate data for E. coli and suspended sediment indicated that bias was not introduced to the data by combining samples collected using discrete sampling methods with samples collected using automatic sampling methods. The split and sequential E. coli replicate data showed consistent analytical variability and a single equation was developed to explain the variability of E. coli concentrations. An additional analysis of analytical variability for E. coli indicated analytical variability around 18 percent relative standard deviation and no trend was observed in the concentration during the processing and analysis of multiple split-replicates. Two replicate samples were collected for MST and individual markers were compared for a base flow and flood sample. For the markers found in common between the two types of samples, the relative standard deviation for the base flow sample was more than 3 times greater than the markers in the flood sample. Sequential suspended sediment replicates had a relative standard deviation of about 1.3 percent, indicating that environmental and analytical variability was minimal. A holding time review and laboratory study analysis supported the extended holding times required for this investigation. Most concentrations for flood and base-flow samples were within the theoretical variability specified in the most probable number approach suggesting that extended hold times did not overly influence the final concentrations reported.

Arizona↗

USGS2001

Mississippi/Alabama pinnacle trend ecosystem monitoring Final Synthesis Report

This Final Synthesis Report summarizes a four-year program to characterize and monitor carbonate mounds on the Mississippi/Alabama outer continental shelf (OCS). The study area is shown in Fig.ES.1. The study was conducted by Continental Shelf Associates, Inc. and the Geochemical and Environmental Research Group (GERG) of Texas A&M University (TAMU), for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Biological Resources Division.

Biological Science Report↗

USGS1993

Stable isotope enrichment in paleowaters of the southeast Atlantic coastal plain, United States

Paleowaters from the Floridan aquifer system in the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain have higher D/H and 18 O/ 16 O ratios than local Holocene ground water. Maximum δ 18 O enrichments in ground water having adjusted radiocarbon ages of 20,000 to 26,000 years are 0.7 to 2.3 per mil. The trend in isotopic enrichment in paleowaters is the reverse of that normally observed in continental glacial age ground water. Dissolved nitrogen and argon concentrations indicate, however, that the average recharge temperature was 5.3°C cooler than that today. The data indicate cool conditions in the southeast Atlantic coastal plain during the last glacial maximum, with recharge limited primarily to late summer tropical cyclones and hurricanes.

Science↗

USGS2001

Apatite fission-track evidence of widespread Eocene heating and exhumation in the Yukon-Tanana Upland, interior Alaska

We present an apatite fission-track (AFT) study of five plutonic rocks and seven metamorphic rocks across 310 km of the YukonTanana Upland in east-central Alaska. Samples yielding ~40 Ma AFT ages and mean confined track lengths > 14 µm with low standard deviations cooled rapidly from >120°C to <50°C during a 35 Ma period, beginning at about 40 Ma. Data from samples yielding AFT ages >40 Ma suggest partial annealing and, therefore, lower maximum temperatures (~90105°C). A few samples with single-grain ages of ~20 Ma apparently remained above ~50°C after initial cooling. Although the present geothermal gradient in the western YukonTanana Upland is ~32°C/km, it could have been as high as 45°C/km during a widespread Eocene intraplate magmatic episode. Prior to rapid exhumation, samples with ~40 Ma AFT ages were >3.82.7 km deep and samples with >50 Ma AFT ages were >3.32.0 km deep. We calculate a 440320 m/Ma minimum rate for exhumation of all samples during rapid cooling. Our AFT data, and data from rocks north of Fairbanks and from the Eielson deep test hole, indicate up to 3 km of post-40 Ma vertical displacement along known and inferred northeast-trending high-angle faults. The predominance of 4050 Ma AFT ages throughout the YukonTanana Upland indicates that, prior to the post-40 Ma relative uplift along some northeast-trending faults, rapid regional cooling and exhumation closely followed the Eocene extensional magmatism. We propose that Eocene magmatism and exhumation were somehow related to plate movements that produced regional-scale oroclinal rotation, northward translation of outboard terranes, major dextral strike-slip faulting, and subduction of an oceanic spreading ridge along the southern margin of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Forage fish species prefer habitat within designated offshore wind energy areas on the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

As the world develops sources of renewable energy, there is an intensifying interest in offshore wind energy production. The Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem has favorable wind dynamics, with active development of wind energy. In this study, we present species distribution models that consider both occupancy and biomass responses for a broad spectrum of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa ( n = 177). Building upon prior analyses, habitat was differentiated into overall and core habitats based on statistical distributions of habitat scores. Overall habitat was used to show each species' regional distribution based on fishery-independent survey captures between 1976 and 2019, whereas core habitat represented where the focus of the species' abundance was located as a subset of overall habitat. Wind energy developments may modify the water column in ways that impact lower-trophic-level productivity; therefore, added attention was given to the response of forage species. Over 20% of species showed preferential use of putative and potential wind development areas, including a disproportionate number of forage taxa. Principal usage varied by season, with forage species like Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus and Atlantic Mackerel Scomber scombrus preferentially using the lease areas in spring and Round Herring Etrumeus teres and longfin inshore squid Doryteuthis pealeii using lease areas in autumn. For species with relatively low usage of the lease areas, there was a tendency for the usage related to overall habitat to be lower than usage for core habitat; in contrast, for species with high usage of the lease areas, that usage was higher for overall habitat than for core habitat. The area of habitat tended to have positive trends across species, with these positive trends being disproportionately higher among forage taxa. These results frame the importance of wind lease areas for species in the NES, particularly forage taxa that fulfill many important ecological functions.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

USGS2008

Introduction to the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) of ground-water quality trends and comparison to other national programs

Assessment of temporal trends in national ground-water quality networks are rarely published in scientific journals. This is partly due to the fact that long-term data from these types of networks are uncommon and because many national monitoring networks are not driven by hypotheses that can be easily incorporated into scientific research. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) since 1991 has to date (2006) concentrated on occurrence of contaminants because sufficient data for trend analysis is only just becoming available. This paper introduces the first set of trend assessments from NAWQA and provides an assessment of the success of the program. On a national scale, nitrate concentrations in ground water have generally increased from 1988 to 2004, but trends in pesticide concentrations are less apparent. Regionally, the studies showed high nitrate concentrations and frequent pesticide detections are linked to agricultural use of fertilizers and pesticides. Most of these areas showed increases in nitrate concentration within the last decade, and these increases are associated with oxic-geochemical conditions and well-drained soils. The current NAWQA plan for collecting data to define trends needs to be constantly reevaluated to determine if the approach fulfills the expected outcome. To assist this evaluation, a comparison of NAWQA to other national ground-water quality programs was undertaken. The design and spatial extent of each national program depend on many factors, including current and long-term budgets, purpose of the program, size of the country, and diversity of aquifer types. Comparison of NAWQA to nine other national programs shows a great diversity in program designs, but indicates that different approaches can achieve similar and equally important goals. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2018

Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen criterion attainment deficit: Three decades of temporal and spatial patterns

Low dissolved oxygen (DO) conditions are a recurring issue in waters of Chesapeake Bay, with detrimental effects on aquatic living resources. The Chesapeake Bay Program partnership has developed criteria guidance supporting the definition of state water quality standards and associated assessment procedures for DO and other parameters, which provides a binary classification of attainment or impairment. Evaluating time series of these two outcomes alone, however, provides limited information on water quality change over time or space. Here we introduce an extension of the existing Chesapeake Bay water quality criterion assessment framework to quantify the amount of impairment shown by space-time exceedance of DO criterion (“attainment deficit”) for a specific tidal management unit (i.e., segment). We demonstrate the usefulness of this extended framework by applying it to Bay segments for each 3-year assessment period between 1985 and 2016. In general, the attainment deficit for the most recent period assessed (i.e., 2014–2016) is considerably worse for deep channel (DC; n = 10) segments than open water (OW; n = 92) and deep water (DW; n = 18) segments. Most subgroups – classified by designated uses, salinity zones, or tidal systems – show better (or similar) attainment status in 2014–2016 than their initial status (1985–1987). Some significant temporal trends (p < 0.1) were detected, presenting evidence on the recovery for portions of Chesapeake Bay with respect to DO criterion attainment. Significant, improving trends were observed in seven OW segments, four DW segments, and one DC segment over the 30 3-year assessment periods (1985–2016). Likewise, significant, improving trends were observed in 15 OW, five DW, and four DC segments over the recent 15 assessment periods (2000–2016). Subgroups showed mixed trends, with the Patuxent, Nanticoke, and Choptank Rivers experiencing significant, improving short-term (2000–2016) trends while Elizabeth experiencing a significant, degrading short-term trend. The general lack of significantly improving trends across the Bay suggests that further actions will be necessary to achieve full attainment of DO criterion. Insights revealed in this work are critical for understanding the dynamics of the Bay ecosystem and for further assessing the effectiveness of management initiatives aimed toward Bay restoration.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2011

Leaders' perspectives in the Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative

The Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative (Y2Y) was created in 1993 to advance conservation in a 1.2 million km2 portion of the North American Rocky Mountains. We assembled 21 people with influence over Y2Y in a workshop to elucidate perspectives on challenges and solutions for this organization at a key point in its evolution, and used Q method to define four perspectives on challenges and three on solutions. Participants were differentiated by four models for effecting change-vision-based advocacy, practice-based learning, political engagement, and scientific management-with emphasis on the first three. Those with authority in Y2Y aligned with vision-based advocacy and expressed ambivalence about practice-based adaptive learning and rigorous appraisals of existing strategies. Workshop results were consistent with an apparent trend toward organizational maturation focused on stabilizing revenues, developing formal organizational arrangements, and focusing strategies. Consolidation of power in Y2Y around a long-standing formula does not bode well for the effectiveness of Y2Y. We recommend that leaders in Y2Y and similar organizations focused on large-scale conservation to create and maintain an open system-philosophically and operationally-that capitalizes on the diverse perspectives and skills of individuals who are attracted to such efforts. We also recommend that the Y2Y initiative be followed closely to harvest additional lessons for potential application to large-scale conservation efforts elsewhere. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC(outside the USA).2011.

Policy Sciences↗

USGS2002

Thallium isotope variations in seawater and hydrogenetic, diagenetic, and hydrothermal ferromanganese deposits

Results are presented for the first in-depth investigation of TI isotope variations in marine materials. The TI isotopic measurements were conducted by multiple collector-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry for a comprehensive suite of hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts, diagenetic Fe-Mn nodules, hydrothermal manganese deposits and seawater samples. The natural variability of TI isotope compositions in these samples exceeds the analytical reproducibility (?? 0.05???) by more than a factor of 40. Hydrogenetic Fe-Mn crusts have ??205TI of + 10 to + 14, whereas seawater is characterized by values as low as -8 (??205TI represents the deviation of the 205TI/203TI ratio of a sample from the NIST SRM 997 TI isotope standard in parts per 104). This ~ 2??? difference in isotope composition is thought to result from the isotope fractionation that accompanies the adsorption of TI onto ferromanganese particles. An equilibrium fractionation factor of ?? ~ 1.0021 is calculated for this process. Ferromanganese nodules and hydrothermal manganese deposits have variable TI isotope compositions that range between the values obtained for seawater and hydrogenetic Fe-Mn crusts. The variability in ??205TI in diagenetic nodules appears to be caused by the adsorption of TI from pore fluids, which act as a closed-system reservoir with a TI isotope composition that is inferred to be similar to seawater. Nodules with ??205TI values similar to seawater are found if the scavenging of TI is nearly quantitative. Hydrothermal manganese deposits display a positive correlation between ??205TI and Mn/Fe. This trend is thought to be due to the derivation of TI from distinct hydrothermal sources. Deposits with low Mn/Fe ratios and low ??205TI are produced by the adsorption of TI from fluids that are sampled close to hydrothermal sources. Such fluids have low Mn/Fe ratios and relatively high temperatures, such that only minor isotope fractionation occurs during adsorption. Hydrothermal manganese deposits with high Mn/Fe and high ??205Ti are generated by scavenging of TI from colder, more distal hydrothermal fluids. Under such conditions, adsorption is associated with significant isotope fractionation, and this produces deposits with higher ??205TI values coupled with high Mn/Fe. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2023

Long short-term memory models to quantify long-term evolution of streamflow discharge and groundwater depth in Alabama

Long short-term memory (LSTM) models have been shown to be efficient for rainfall-runoff modeling, and to a lesser extent, for groundwater depth forecasting. In this study, LSTMs were applied to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of surface and subsurface hydrographs in Alabama in the Southeastern United States, where water sustainability has not been fully quantified across spatiotemporal scales. First, the surface water LSTM model with extensive dynamic (precipitation and other weather variables) and static (basin characteristics) inputs predicted the main characteristics of streamflow for six years at 19 gauged basins in Alabama. The model tended to underestimate extremely high streamflow but adding drainage density as an input feature slightly improved the predictions of extreme events. Second, to predict the groundwater depth evolution, a groundwater LSTM (GW-LSTM) model was proposed and applied using static inputs capturing the aquifers' hydrogeological properties and dynamic inputs of meteorological information. Three precipitation scenarios were also explored to evaluate the groundwater hydrograph evolution in the next two decades. The GW-LSTM model predicted the general trend of daily groundwater depth fluctuations (at 21 wells distributed across Alabama from 1990 to 2021) including most extremely high groundwater levels, and recovered groundwater depth for locations withheld from model training and validation. This study, therefore, extended the application of LSTMs in quantifying the spatiotemporal evolution of surface water and groundwater, two manifestations of a single integrated resource.

Alabama↗

USGS2018

Population trends in Vermivora warblers are linked to strong migratory connectivity

Migratory species can experience limiting factors at different locations and during different periods of their annual cycle. In migratory birds, these factors may even occur in different hemispheres. Therefore, identifying the distribution of populations throughout their annual cycle (i.e., migratory connectivity) can reveal the complex ecological and evolutionary relationships that link species and ecosystems across the globe and illuminate where and how limiting factors influence population trends. A growing body of literature continues to identify species that exhibit weak connectivity wherein individuals from distinct breeding areas co-occur during the nonbreeding period. A detailed account of a broadly distributed species exhibiting strong migratory connectivity in which nonbreeding isolation of populations is associated with differential population trends remains undescribed. Here, we present a range-wide assessment of the nonbreeding distribution and migratory connectivity of two broadly dispersed Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbirds. We used geolocators to track the movements of 70 Vermivora warblers from sites spanning their breeding distribution in eastern North America and identified links between breeding populations and nonbreeding areas. Unlike blue-winged warblers ( Vermivora cyanoptera ), breeding populations of golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) exhibited strong migratory connectivity, which was associated with historical trends in breeding populations: stable for populations that winter in Central America and declining for those that winter in northern South America.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2009

Satellite telemetry of marine megavertebrates: The coming of age of an experimental science

Wildlife telemetry research has expanded greatly in the last 2 decades, with the application of satellite tracking and archival logging technologies to study the ecology and conservation of marine mammals, birds, fishes, and turtles. Widespread and expanding use of satellite tracking to study movements and habitats of marine megavertebrates warrants a review of progress to date and a discussion of challenges facing this rapidly evolving research field. To this end, we reviewed the satellite telemetry literature of air-breathing marine taxa (i.e. birds, mammals, turtles) over the 20 yr time period from 1987 to 2006. This review yielded 92 studies with a wide taxonomic representation: 47 seabirds, 23 sea turtles, and 22 marine mammals. Here we critically evaluate these articles to assess progress in satellite tracking of marine megavertebrates in terms of (1) objectives and approach, (2) experimental design, and (3) reporting of results. The overall trends revealed increases in the duration and scope of tracking studies, yet improvements on experimental design and reporting are needed to facilitate comparisons across studies and species. While inherent ecological differences influence the focus and methods of taxon-specific studies, this review highlights specific areas in need of improvement and provides general suggestions for future tracking studies of marine megavertebrates.

Endangered Species Research↗

USGS2001

A geostatistical approach to predicting sulfur content in the Pittsburgh coal bed

The US Geological Survey (USGS) is completing a national assessment of coal resources in the five top coal-producing regions in the US. Point-located data provide measurements on coal thickness and sulfur content. The sample data and their geologic interpretation represent the most regionally complete and up-to-date assessment of what is known about top-producing US coal beds. The sample data are analyzed using a combination of geologic and Geographic Information System (GIS) models to estimate tonnages and qualities of the coal beds. Traditionally, GIS practitioners use contouring to represent geographical patterns of "similar" data values. The tonnage and grade of coal resources are then assessed by using the contour lines as references for interpolation. An assessment taken to this point is only indicative of resource quantity and quality. Data users may benefit from a statistical approach that would allow them to better understand the uncertainty and limitations of the sample data. To develop a quantitative approach, geostatistics were applied to the data on coal sulfur content from samples taken in the Pittsburgh coal bed (located in the eastern US, in the southwestern part of the state of Pennsylvania, and in adjoining areas in the states of Ohio and West Virginia). Geostatistical methods that account for regional and local trends were applied to blocks 2.7 mi (4.3 km) on a side. The data and geostatistics support conclusions concerning the average sulfur content and its degree of reliability at regional- and economic-block scale over the large, contiguous part of the Pittsburgh outcrop, but not to a mine scale. To validate the method, a comparison was made with the sulfur contents in sample data taken from 53 coal mines located in the study area. The comparison showed a high degree of similarity between the sulfur content in the mine samples and the sulfur content represented by the geostatistically derived contours. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗