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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Invasive rat control is an efficient, yet insufficient, method for recovery of the critically endangered Hawaiian plant hau kuahiwi (Hibiscadelphus giffardianus)

Biological invasions of rodents and other species have been especially problematic on tropical islands. Invasive Rattus rattus consumption of Hibiscadelphus giffardianus (Malvaceae; common Hawaiian name hau kuahiwi) fruit and seeds has been hypothesized to be the most-limiting factor inhibiting the critically endangered tree, but this has not been experimentally tested, and little is known about other factors affecting seed dispersal, germination, and seedling establishment. Thus, we do not know if rat removal is sufficient to increase hau kuahiwi recruitment. This study aims to evaluate the effect of rat population control on the ability of hau kuahiwi to retain fruit and establish seedlings. We compared hau kuahiwi fruiting and seedling recruitment in a stand treated to reduce rat abundance and a neighbouring control stand. Fruit retention increased following treatment but seedling establishment did not. Although rat control improves the ability of hau kuahiwi to retain fruit, other, presently unknown inhibitors to seed dispersal, germination, and/or seedling development remain. Seed and seedling predation by other species, competition from numerous invasive plant species, unsuitable climate, and/or other factors may be primary inhibitors in the absence of rats, but we emphasize that progressive isolation of these factors at individual hau kuahiwi life stages may be necessary to identify the remaining threats to the conservation of this critically endangered plant.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2019

Morphology and genetics of Lythrum salicaria from latitudinal gradients of the Northern Hemisphere grown in cold and hot common gardens

The aim of this project was to compare the phenotypic responses of global populations of Lythrum salicaria in cold/dry and hot/humid environments to determine if phenotypic plasticity varied between the native and invasive ranges, and secondarily if this variation was linked to genetic diversity. Common garden studies were conducted in Třeboň, Czech Republic, and Lafayette, Louisiana, USA (cold/dry vs. hot/humid garden, respectively), using populations from latitudinal gradients in Eurasia and North America. Lythrum salicaria seeds collected from the same maternal plants across these latitudinal gradients were germinated and grown in Třeboň and Lafayette. Tissue masses (above-, below-ground, inflorescence and total) of these individuals were assessed at the end of each growing season (2006–2008). Worldwide field measurements of L . salicaria height were made by volunteers from 2004–2016. Biomass and height data were analyzed using the General Linear Model framework and multivariate techniques. Molecular markers (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) of individuals used in the common garden study were analyzed using traditional genetic diversity metrics and Bayesian clustering algorithms in STRUCTURE. Reaction norms were developed from differences in maternal plant responses in Třeboň versus Lafayette. In the common garden studies, stem/leaf, root and total biomass generally were highest for individuals grown from seeds collected in the southern part of the range in the cold garden, particularly by the third year of the study. In contrast, inflorescence biomass in the cold garden was higher by the third year in individuals from mid-latitude populations. As measured by volunteers, plants were taller in Eurasia than in North America moving from north to south with the pattern switching southward of 40°N latitude. Genetic diversity was similar between native and non-native invasive populations regardless of geographical origin of the seed and was not significantly different in the GLM Select model (p > 0.05). Reaction norm slopes showed that Eurasia had larger values than North America for reaction norms for above-ground and total biomass. Plants from the seeds of mother plants from Turkey had wide variation in total biomass when grown in Třeboň versus Lafayette; this variation in response within certain populations may have contributed to the lack of population-level differences in plasticity. These results indicate no loss of genetic diversity for L . salicaria during its North American invasion, nor reduction in plastic tissue allocation responses to a varying environment, which may help explain some of its invasive qualities and which could be of adaptive value under changing future environments.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2018

Survival and drifting patterns of grass carp eggs and larvae in response to interactions with flow and sediment in a laboratory flume

A series of laboratory experiments was conducted to better understand the behavior of grass carp eggs and larvae in moving water in order to develop and implement new strategies for control and prediction of their dispersal and drift at early life stages. Settling velocity and density of a representative sample of eggs were estimated, and three trials of flume experiments with different flow conditions were conducted with live eggs in a temperature-controlled setting with a mobile sediment bed. In these trials, egg and larval stages were continuously analyzed over periods of 80 hours; and eggs and larvae interactions with the flow and sediment bed were monitored and characterized qualitatively and quantitatively. Survival rates were quantified after each trial, highlighting physical causes for increased mortality. Detailed flow analysis was correlated to the observed drifting and swimming behavior of eggs and larvae, to estimate distributions across the water depth, as well as traveling and swimming speeds. Evidence of the influence of mean and turbulent flow in the suspension and transport of eggs are reported, and swimming patterns of larvae at different developmental stages are described. These findings support the development of new strategies for monitoring the spread of grass carp eggs and larvae in rivers, and provide new inputs to predict conditions favorable for spawning and hatching, allowing for mitigation measures at early life stages, which are critical to control their dispersal.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2018

Communicating information on nature-related topics: Preferred information channels and trust in sources

How information is communicated influences the public’s environmental perceptions and behaviors. Information channels and sources both play an important role in the dissemination of information. Trust in a source is often used as a proxy for whether a particular piece of information is credible. To determine preferences for information channels and trust in various sources for information on nature-related topics, a mail-out survey was sent to randomly selected U.S. addresses ( n = 1,030). Diverse groups of people may have differing communication preferences. Therefore, we explored differences in channel preferences and trust by demographics using regression models. Overall, the most preferred channels were personal experience, reading online content, and watching visual media online. The most trusted sources were science organizations, universities, and friends/family. Channel preferences varied the most by education level and age, while source trust was most influenced by education, race, age, and size of current residence (rural-urban). The influence of demographics varied depending on the individual channel and source, with some groups preferring certain channels or sources but not others. Results are useful to consider when disseminating information on nature-related topics to a general public audience. More broadly, results also suggest spreading information using different channels and sources depending on the specific audience being targeted.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2019

Whooping crane use of riverine stopover sites

Migratory birds like endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) require suitable nocturnal roost sites during twice annual migrations. Whooping cranes primarily roost in shallow surface water wetlands, ponds, and rivers. All these features have been greatly impacted by human activities, which present threats to the continued recovery of the species. A portion of one such river, the central Platte River, has been identified as critical habitat for the survival of the endangered whooping crane. Management intervention is now underway to rehabilitate habitat form and function on the central Platte River to increase use and thereby contribute to the survival of whooping cranes. The goal of our analyses was to develop habitat selection models that could be used to direct riverine habitat management activities (i.e., channel widening, tree removal, flow augmentation, etc.) along the central Platte River and throughout the species’ range. As such, we focused our analyses on two robust sets of whooping crane observations and habitat metrics the Platte River Recovery Implementation Program (Program or PRRIP) and other such organizations could influence. This included channel characteristics such as total channel width, the width of channel unobstructed by dense vegetation, and distance of forest from the edge of the channel and flow-related metrics like wetted width and unit discharge (flow volume per linear meter of wetted channel width) that could be influenced by flow augmentation or reductions during migration. We used 17 years of systematic monitoring data in a discrete-choice framework to evaluate the influence these various metrics have on the relative probability of whooping crane use and found the width of channel unobstructed by dense vegetation and distance to the nearest forest were the best predictors of whooping crane use. Secondly, we used telemetry data obtained from a sample of 38 birds of all ages over the course of seven years, 2010–2016, to evaluate whooping crane use of riverine habitat within the North-central Great Plains, USA. For this second analysis, we focused on the two metrics found to be important predictors of whooping crane use along the central Platte River, unobstructed channel width and distance to nearest forest or wooded area. Our findings indicate resource managers, such as the Program, have the potential to influence whooping crane use of the central Platte River through removal of in-channel vegetation to increase the unobstructed width of narrow channels and through removal of trees along the bank line to increase unforested corridor widths. Results of both analyses also indicated that increases in relative probability of use by whooping cranes did not appreciably increase with unobstructed views ≥200 m wide and unforested corridor widths that were ≥330 m. Therefore, managing riverine sites for channels widths >200 m and removing trees beyond 165 m from the channel’s edge would increase costs associated with implementing management actions such as channel and bank-line disking, removing trees, augmenting flow, etc. without necessarily realizing an additional appreciable increase in use by migrating whooping cranes.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2019

Using a Bayesian network to understand the importance of coastal storms and undeveloped landscapes for the creation and maintenance of early successional habitat

Coastal storms have consequences for human lives and infrastructure but also create important early successional habitats for myriad species. For example, storm-induced overwash creates nesting habitat for shorebirds like piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). We examined how piping plover habitat extent and location changed on barrier islands in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia after Hurricane Sandy made landfall following the 2012 breeding season. We modeled nesting habitat using a nest presence/absence dataset that included characterizations of coastal morphology and vegetation. Using a Bayesian network, we predicted nesting habitat for each study site for the years 2010/2011, 2012, and 2014/2015 based on remotely sensed spatial datasets (e.g., lidar, orthophotos). We found that Hurricane Sandy increased piping plover habitat by 9 to 300% at 4 of 5 study sites but that one site saw a decrease in habitat by 27%. The amount, location, and longevity of new habitat appeared to be influenced by the level of human development at each site. At three of the five sites, the amount of habitat created and the time new habitat persisted were inversely related to the amount of development. Furthermore, the proportion of new habitat created in high-quality overwash was inversely related to the level of development on study areas, from 17% of all new habitat in overwash at one of the most densely developed sites to 80% of all new habitat at an undeveloped site. We also show that piping plovers exploited new habitat after the storm, with 14–57% of all nests located in newly created habitat in the 2013 breeding season. Our results quantify the importance of storms in creating and maintaining coastal habitats for beach-nesting species like piping plovers, and these results suggest a negative correlation between human development and beneficial ecological impacts of these natural disturbances.

New Jersey, New York, Virginia↗
USGS2019

Trends in global shark attacks

Shark attacks are a global phenomenon that attracts widespread attention and publicity, often with negative outcomes for shark populations. Despite the widespread perceptions of shark attacks, trends in human water activities and shark populations are both dynamic, resulting in variable rates of shark attacks over space and time. Understanding variable trends in shark attacks may contribute to a better understanding of risk, and a more tempered response in the wake of an attack. We found that global shark attack rates are low, yet variable across global regions and over decades. Countries with low populations were found to have the highest rates of attack, while countries with high populations (U.S.A., Australia, South Africa) tended to have overall low attack rates, but also much more interannual variability. From the 1960s to the present, those countries with the highest populations also tended to be the places where attack rates have increased. Ultimately, shark attack risk is also driven by local conditions (e.g., time of day, species present); however, a global scale understanding of attack rates helps place risk into perspective and may contribute to a more scientifically-grounded discussion of sharks, and their management and conservation.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2019

Molecular characterization of Bathymodiolus mussels and gill symbionts associated with chemosynthetic habitats from the U.S. Atlantic margin

Mussels of the genus Bathymodiolus are among the most widespread colonizers of hydrothermal vent and cold seep environments, sustained by endosymbiosis with chemosynthetic bacteria. Presumed species of Bathymodiolus are abundant at newly discovered cold seeps on the Mid-Atlantic continental slope, however morphological taxonomy is challenging, and their phylogenetic affinities remain unestablished. Here we used mitochondrial sequence to classify species found at three seep sites (Baltimore Canyon seep (BCS; ~400m); Norfolk Canyon seep (NCS; ~1520m); and Chincoteague Island seep (CTS; ~1000m)). Mitochondrial COI (N = 162) and ND4 (N = 39) data suggest that Bathymodiolus childressi predominates at these sites, although single B. mauritanicus and B. heckerae individuals were detected. As previous work had suggested that methanotrophic and thiotrophic interactions can both occur at a site, and within an individual mussel, we investigated the symbiont communities in gill tissues of a subset of mussels from BCS and NCS. We constructed metabarcode libraries with four different primer sets spanning the 16S gene. A methanotrophic phylotype dominated all gill microbial samples from BCS, but sulfur-oxidizing Campylobacterota were represented by a notable minority of sequences from NCS. The methanotroph phylotype shared a clade with globally distributed Bathymodiolus spp. symbionts from methane seeps and hydrothermal vents. Two distinct Campylobacterota phylotypes were prevalent in NCS samples, one of which shares a clade with Campylobacterota associated with B. childressi from the Gulf of Mexico and the other with Campylobacterota associated with other deep-sea fauna. Variation in chemosynthetic symbiont communities among sites and individuals has important ecological and geochemical implications and suggests shifting reliance on methanotrophy. Continued characterization of symbionts from cold seeps will provide a greater understanding of the ecology of these unique environments as well and their geochemical footprint in elemental cycling and energy flux.

Delaware, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, North Car↗
USGS2019

Seasonal home ranges and habitat selection of three elk (Cervus elaphus) herds in North Dakota

Changes in land use have resulted in range shifts of many wildlife species, including those entering novel environments, resulting in the critical need to understand their spatial ecology to inform ecosystem effects and management decisions. Dispersing elk ( Cervus elaphus ) were colonizing areas of suitable habitat in the Northern Great Plains, USA, resulting in crop depredation complaints in these areas. Although state resource managers had little information on these elk herds, limited evidence suggested temporal movements into Canada. We collected and analyzed essential information on home range and habitat selection for 3 elk herds residing in North Dakota. We captured 5 adult female elk in each study area, affixed global positioning system collars, and monitored them for 1 year (2016–2017). We estimated diel period, seasonal, and hunting season home ranges using Brownian Bridge Movement Models for each individual. We analyzed habitat selection using multinomial logit models to test for differences in use of land classes, and for departures from proportionate use based on random sampling; our predictor variables included individual elk, diel period, and season. Home ranges differed between the 3 herds, seasons, and diel period; gun and winter season home ranges were both larger than in summer, as was night when compared with day. Female elk generally restricted themselves to cover during the day and entered open areas at night and during winter months. Our results also suggest that elk in our study areas tended to seek more cover, and in the case of our Turtle Mountain study area, some cross into Canada during gun season. Our study provides a better understanding of the spatial ecology of elk in the Northern Great Plains while highlighting the need for enhanced international cooperative management efforts.

North Dakota↗
USGS2019

Diel activity of newly metamorphosed juvenile sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus)

Timing of activity, especially for juvenile anadromous fishes undertaking long migrations can be critical for survival. River-resident larval sea lamprey metamorphose into juveniles and migrate from their larval stream habitats in fall through spring, but diel timing of this migratory behavior is not well understood. Diel activity was determined for newly metamorphosed sea lamprey using day/night net sampling and passive integrated transponder (PIT) telemetry in two natural streams and PIT telemetry in an artificial stream. Downstream migration was primarily nocturnal in all studies. All but one of 372 sea lamprey were captured during night sampling in the day/night net collections and all detections (N = 56) for the in-stream PIT telemetry occurred within a few hours after sunset. Most (81% of 48) tagged lamprey moved downstream during the first night following release and moved at speeds consistent with observed water velocities. During long-term observation of behavior in the artificial stream most sea lamprey movement occurred during the night with limited occurrence of movement during daylight hours. Understanding seasonal and diel timing of downstream migration behavior may allow more effective management of sea lamprey for both conservation and control.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2019

Globally important islands where eradicating invasive mammals will benefit highly threatened vertebrates

Invasive alien species are a major threat to native insular species. Eradicating invasive mammals from islands is a feasible and proven approach to prevent biodiversity loss. We developed a conceptual framework to identify globally important islands for invasive mammal eradications to prevent imminent extinctions among highly threatened species using biogeographic and technical factors, plus a novel approach to consider socio-political feasibility. We applied this framework using a comprehensive dataset describing the distribution of 1,184 highly threatened, native, vertebrate species (i.e. those listed as Critically Endangered or Endangered on the IUCN Red List) and 184 non-native mammals on 1,279 islands worldwide. Based on extinction risk, irreplaceability, severity of impact from invasive species, and technical feasibility of eradication, we identified and ranked 292 of the most important islands where eradicating invasive mammals would benefit highly threatened vertebrates. When socio-political feasibility was considered, we identified 169 of these islands where eradication planning or operation could be initiated by 2020 or 2030. Of these, 107 islands were in 34 countries and territories and could have eradication projects initiated by 2020. Concentrating efforts to eradicate invasive mammals on these 107 islands would benefit 151 populations of 80 highly threatened vertebrates and make a major contribution towards achieving global conservation targets adopted by the world’s nations.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2019

Migratory goose arrival time plays a larger role in influencing forage quality than advancing springs in an Arctic coastal wetland

With warmer springs, herbivores migrating to Arctic breeding grounds may experience phenological mismatches between their energy demands and the availability of high quality forage. However, the timing of high quality forage relative to the timing of grazing is often unknown. In coastal western Alaska, approximately one million migratory geese arrive each spring to breed where foliar %N and C:N ratios are linked to gosling survival and population growth. We conducted a three-year experiment where we manipulated the start of the growing season using warming chambers and grazing times using captive Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) to examine how the timing of these events influences the quality of an important forage species. Our results suggest that grazing timing plays a much greater role than an advanced growing season in determining forage quality. Both top models included grazing timing, and suggested that compared to typical grazing timing, early grazing significantly reduced foliar %C by 6% and C:N ratios by 16%, while late goose grazing significantly reduced foliar %N by 15% and increased foliar C:N ratios by 21%. While the second-ranking top model included the effect of season, the advanced growing season only reduced %N by 4%, increased %C by <1%, and increased C:N ratios by 5% compared to an ambient growing season. In summary, in years where geese arrive early, they will consume higher quality forage when they arrive and throughout the season, while in years that geese arrive late they will consume lower quality forage when they arrive and for the remainder of the season. When the growing season starts has only a minor influence on this pattern. Our findings suggest that cues determining migration and arrival times to breeding areas are important factors influencing forage quality for geese in western Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Environmental DNA sampling reveals high occupancy rates of invasive Burmese pythons at wading bird breeding aggregations in the central Everglades

The Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is now established as a breeding population throughout south Florida, USA. However, the extent of the invasion, and the ecological impacts of this novel apex predator on animal communities are incompletely known, in large part because Burmese pythons (hereafter “pythons”) are extremely cryptic and there has been no efficient way to detect them. Pythons are recently confirmed nest predators of long-legged wading bird breeding colonies (orders Ciconiiformes and Pelecaniformes). Pythons can consume large quantities of prey and may not be recognized as predators by wading birds, therefore they could be a particular threat to colonies. To quantify python occupancy rates at tree islands where wading birds breed, we utilized environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis—a genetic tool which detects shed DNA in water samples and provides high detection probabilities. We fitted multi-scale Bayesian occupancy models to test the prediction that pythons occupy islands with wading bird colonies at higher rates compared to representative control islands containing no breeding birds. Our results suggest that pythons are widely distributed across the central Everglades in proximity to active wading bird colonies. In support of our prediction that pythons are attracted to colonies, site-level python eDNA occupancy rates were higher at wading bird colonies (ψ = 0.88, 95% credible interval [0.59–1.00]) than at the control islands (ψ = 0.42 [0.16–0.80]) in April through June (n = 15 colony-control pairs). We found our water temperature proxy (time of day) to be informative of detection probability, in accordance with other studies demonstrating an effect of temperature on eDNA degradation in occupied samples. Individual sample concentrations ranged from 0.26 to 38.29 copies/μL and we generally detected higher concentrations of python eDNA in colony sites. Continued monitoring of wading bird colonies is warranted to determine the effect pythons are having on populations and investigate putative management activities.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Evaluating and using existing models to map probable suitable habitat for rare plants to inform management of multiple-use public lands in the California desert

Multiple-use public lands require balancing diverse resource uses and values across landscapes. In the California desert, there is strong interest in renewable energy development and important conservation concerns. The Bureau of Land Management recently completed a land-use plan for the area that provides protection for modeled suitable habitat for multiple rare plants. Three sets of habitat models were commissioned for plants of conservation concern as part of the planning effort. The Bureau of Land Management then needed to determine which model or combination of models to use to implement plan requirements. Our goals were to: 1) develop a process for evaluating the existing habitat models and 2) use the evaluation results to map probable and potential suitable habitat. We developed a method for evaluating the construction (input data and methods) and performance of existing models and applied it to 88 habitat models for 43 rare plant species. We also developed a process for mapping probable and potential suitable habitat based on the existing models; potential habitat maps are intended only to guide future field surveys. We were able to map probable suitable habitat for 26 of the 43 species and potential suitable habitat for 41 species. Forty percent of the project area contains probable suitable habitat for at least one species (43,338 km2), with much of that habitat (43%) occurring on lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management. Lands prioritized for renewable energy development contain 3% of the habitat modeled as suitable for at least one species. Our products can be used by agencies to review proposed projects and plan future plant surveys and by developers to target sites likely to minimize conflicts with rare plant conservation goals. Our methods can be broadly applied to understand and quantify the defensibility of models used in conservation and regulatory contexts.

California↗
USGS2019

Mortality of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) and other alcids during an unusual mortality event in the eastern Bering Sea

Mass mortality events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, potentially linked with ongoing climate change. In October 2016 through January 2017, St. Paul Island situated at the shelf-edge of the Bering Sea, Alaska, experienced a mortality event of alcids (family: Alcidae), with over 350 carcasses recovered. Almost three-quarters of the carcasses were unscavenged, a rate much higher than in baseline surveys (17%), suggesting that a sudden, large deposition event overwhelmed local scavenger populations. Based on the observation that carcasses were not observed on the neighboring island of St. George, we bounded the at-sea distribution of moribund birds, and estimated all species mortality at 8,000 to 22,000 birds. The event was particularly anomalous given the late fall/winter timing of the event when low numbers of beached birds are typical; and the predominance of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata, 79% of carcass finds) and Crested auklets (Aethia cristatella, 11% of carcass finds), species that were nearly absent from long-term baseline surveys. Collected specimens were disease-free and severely emaciated, suggesting starvation as the ultimate cause of mortality. The majority (95%, N = 245) of Tufted puffins were regrowing flight feathers, indicating a potential contribution of molt stress. Immediately prior to this event, shifts in zooplankton community composition and forage fish distribution and energy density were documented in the eastern Bering Sea following a period of elevated sea surface temperatures, evidence cumulatively suggestive of a bottom-up shift in seabird prey availability. We posit that shifts in prey composition and distribution pushing birds outside of their normal fall migration pattern, combined with the onset of molt, resulted in this mortality event

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Linking management planning for coastal wetlands to potential future wave attenuation under a range of relative sea-level rise scenarios

Understanding changes in wave attenuation by emergent vegetation as wetlands degrade or accrete over time is crucial for incorporation of wetlands into holistic coastal risk management. Linked SLAMM and XBeach models were used to investigate potential future changes in wave attenuation over a 50-year period in a degrading, subtropical wetland and a prograding, temperate wetland. These contrasting systems also have differing management contexts and were contrasted to demonstrate how the linked models can provide management-relevant insights. Morphological development of wetlands for different scenarios of sea-level rise and accretion was simulated with SLAMM and then coupled with different vegetation characteristics to predict the influence on future wave attenuation using XBeach. The geomorphological context, subsidence, and accretion resulted in large predicted reductions in the extent of vegetated land (e.g., wetland) and changes in wave height reduction potential across the wetland. These were exacerbated by increases in sea-level from +0.217 m to +0.386 m over a 50-year period, especially at the lowest accretion rates in the degrading wetland. Mangrove vegetation increased wave attenuation within the degrading, subtropical, saline wetland, while grazing reduced wave attenuation in the temperate, prograding wetland. Coastal management decisions and actions, related to coastal vegetation type and structure, have the potential to change future wave attenuation at a spatial scale relevant to coastal protection planning. Therefore, a coastal management approach that includes disaster risk reduction, biodiversity, and climate change, can be informed by coastal modeling tools, such as those demonstrated here for two contrasting case studies.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2019

Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens

Researchers and managers are often interested in monitoring the underlying state of a population (e.g., abundance), yet error in the observation process might mask underlying changes due to imperfect detection, availability for sampling, and heterogeneity in abundance. Additional heterogeneity can be introduced into a monitoring program when male-based surveys are used as an index for the total population. Often, male-based surveys are used for lekking species, as males are conspicuous and more easily monitored when lekking than females. To determine if lek surveys capture changes or trends in population abundance based on female survival and reproduction, we developed a virtual ecologist approach using the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) as an example. Our approach used an individual-based model to simulate lek counts based on female vital rate data from lesser prairie-chickens, included models where detection probability and lek attendance were <1, and analyzed using unadjusted counts and an N-mixture model to compare estimates of population abundance and growth rates. When lek attendance rates were <1, the estimate of abundance was biased low, even when using N-mixture models to account for detection probability. Additionally, using lek counts to estimate population growth rates without accounting for detection probability consistently overestimated population growth rates, indicating a stable population when the population was decreasing. Our results therefore suggest that lek-based surveys used without accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may miss important trends in population changes. Rather than population-level inference, lek-based surveys not accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may instead be better for inferring broad-scale range shifts of lesser prairie-chicken populations in a presence/absence framework.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2019

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units, and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories.

California↗