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USGS2016

Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well ( r = +0.69, p < 0.001) to this lake regime shift. To understand how and to what extent sea ice affects lakes, we conducted model experiments to simulate winters with years of high (1991/92) and low (2007/08) sea ice extent for which we also had field measurements and satellite imagery characterizing lake ice conditions. A lake ice growth model forced with Weather Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Christina River subbasin and overview of simulations in other subbasins of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware, 1994-98

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi 2 ) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, and Christina River. The Christina River subbasin (exclusive of the Brandywine, Red Clay, and White Clay Creek subbasins) drains an area of 76 mi 2 . Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking water supply, and support of aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point- and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpoint-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in small subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint- source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the Christina River subbasin and nine sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin. The HSPF model for the Christina River subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 3.8 to 21.9 mi 2 . Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Christina River subbasin are residential, urban, forested, agricultural, and open. The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data from one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorologic station and hourly data from one NOAA meteorologic station were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated streamflow volume ranged from -2.3 to 5.3 percent for a 10-month portion of the calibration period at the two calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error for the 4-year period. For example, at Christina River at Coochs Bridge, near the bottom of the free-flowing part of the subbasin (drainage area of 21 mi 2 ), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -6.9 to 6.5 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -1.1 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the three calibration sites for total volume, low-flow recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data. The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using nonpoint-source monitoring data collected at two USGS streamflow-measurement stations and other water-quality monitoring data. The period of record for water-quality monitoring was variable at the stations, with a start date ranging from October 1994 to January 1998 and an end date of October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended-solids data may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulaion. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for up to six storms in 1998 at the two nonpoint-source monitoring sites (Little Mill Creek near Newport and Christina River at Coochs Bridge, Del.) indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria; much larger errors are possible for individual events. Assessment of the water-quality calibration under stormﬂow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of available water-quality data in the subbasin. Users of the Christina River subbasin HSPF model and HSPF models for other subbasins in the Christina River Basin should be aware of model limitations and consider the following if the model is used for predictive purposes: streamﬂow-duration curves suggest the model simulates streamﬂow reasonably well when measured over a broad range of conditions and time although streamﬂow and the corresponding water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated; streamﬂow-duration curves for the simulation period compare well with duration curves for the 8-year period ending in 2001 at Christina River at Coochs Bridge, Del., and include all but the extreme high-ﬂow and low-ﬂow events; and calibration for water quality was based on limited data, with the result of increasing uncertainty in the water-quality simulation.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Behavior of a wave-driven buoyant surface jet on a coral reef

A wave-driven surface buoyant jet exiting a coral reef was studied in order to quantify the amount of water re-entrained over the reef crest. Both moored observations and Lagrangian drifters were used to study the fate of the buoyant jet. To investigate in detail the effects of buoyancy and along-shore flow variations, we developed an idealized numerical model of the system. Consistent with previous work, the ratio of along-shore velocity to jet-velocity and the jet internal Froude number were found to be important determinants of the fate of the jet. In the absence of buoyancy, the entrainment of fluid at the reef crest, creates a significant amount of retention, keeping 60% of water in the reef system. However, when the jet is lighter than the ambient ocean-water, the net effect of buoyancy is to enhance the separation of the jet from shore, leading to a greater export of reef water. Matching observations, our modeling predicts that buoyancy limits retention to 30% of the jet flow for conditions existing on the Moorea reef. Overall, the combination of observations and modeling we present here shows that reef-ocean temperature gradients can play an important role in reef-ocean exchanges.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2019

Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean

Impermanence is an ecological principle 1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides 2 . Here, we present a model based on niche theory 3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s 4,5,6,7 and 1990s 5,8 . We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014—unprecedented in magnitude and extent—coinciding with a strong El Niño event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities 5,9 , and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2018

Mid-piacenzian of the north Atlantic Ocean

The Piacenzian Age (Pliocene) represents a past climate interval within which frequency and magnitude of environmental changes during a period of past global warmth can be analyzed, climate models can be tested, and results can be placed in a context to better prepare for future change. Here we focus on the North Atlantic region, incorporating new and existing faunal assemblage and alkenone data from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 642, 662, 982, and 999, and International Ocean Discovery Program Sites 1308 and 1313 into our paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Cores and outcrop material containing Piacenzian sediments from the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Virginia, USA, are also included. These data allow us to characterize regional changes in temperature, salinity, upwelling, surface productivity, and diversity, associated with climate transitions, and make nuanced reconstructions of mid-Piacenzian conditions within a high-resolution temporal framework between ~3.40 and ~3.15 Ma, inclusive of Marine Isotope Stages M2 through KM5. We include an initial comparison of estimated sea-surface temperature to coupled climate model simulations, which shows improvement in model adherence to paleoclimate parameters over previous data-model comparisons for the Pliocene.

Stratigraphy↗

USGS2015

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

Inundation exposure assessment for Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands using a high-accuracy digital elevation model

Majuro Atoll in the central Pacific has high coastal vulnerability due to low-lying islands, rising sea level, high wave events, eroding shorelines, a dense population center, and limited freshwater resources. Land elevation is the primary geophysical variable that determines exposure to inundation in coastal settings. Accordingly, coastal elevation data (with accuracy information) are critical for assessments of inundation exposure. Previous research has demonstrated the importance of using high-accuracy elevation data and rigorously accounting for uncertainty in inundation assessments. A quantitative analysis of inundation exposure was conducted for Majuro Atoll, including accounting for the cumulative vertical uncertainty from the input digital elevation model (DEM) and datum transformation. The project employed a recently produced and validated DEM derived from structure-from-motion processing of very-high-resolution aerial imagery. Areas subject to marine inundation (direct hydrologic connection to the ocean) and low-lying lands (disconnected hydrologically from the ocean) were mapped and characterized for three inundation levels using deterministic and probabilistic methods. At the highest water level modeled (3.75 ft, or 1.143 m), more than 34% of the atoll study area is likely to be exposed to inundation (68% chance or greater), while more than 20% of the atoll is extremely likely to be exposed (95% chance or greater). The study demonstrates the substantial value of a high-accuracy DEM for assessing inundation exposure of low-relief islands and the enhanced information from accounting for vertical uncertainty.

Majuro Atoll↗

USGS2016

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data–model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land–ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO 2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS1995

A mechanism for decoupling within the oceanic lithosphere revealed in the Troodos ophiolite

Contrasting kinematic histories recorded in the sheeted dykes and underlying plutonic rocks of the Troodos ophiolite provide a new perspective on the mechanical evolution of oceanic spreading centres. The kinematic framework of the decoupling zone that partitions deformation between the sheeted dykes and plutonics contrasts with low-angle detachment models for slow-spreading ridges based on continental-rift analogues. A model for the generation of multiple, horizontal decoupling horizons, linked by planar normal faults, demonstrates new possibilities for the kinematic and rheological significance of seismic reflectors in oceanic lithosphere.

Nature↗

USGS2022

The influence of satellite-derived environmental and oceanographic parameters on marine turtle time at surface in the Gulf of Mexico

The aftermath of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill highlighted the lack of baseline spatial, behavioral, and abundance data for many species, including imperiled marine turtles, across the Gulf of Mexico. The ecology of marine turtles is closely tied to their vertical movements within the water column and is therefore critical knowledge for resource management in a changing ocean. A more comprehensive understanding of diving behavior, specifically surface intervals, can improve the accuracy of density and abundance estimates by mitigating availability bias. Here, we focus on the proportion of time marine turtles spend at the top 2 m of the water column to coincide with depths where turtles are assumed visible to observers during aerial surveys. To better understand what environmental and oceanographic conditions influence time at surface, we analyzed dive and spatial data from 136 satellite tags attached to three species of threatened or endangered marine turtles across 10 years. We fit generalized additive models with 11 remotely sensed covariates, including sea surface temperature (SST), bathymetry, and salinity, to examine dive patterns. Additionally, the developed model is the first to explicitly examine the potential connection between turtle dive patterns and ocean frontal zones in the Gulf of Mexico. Our results show species-specific associations of environmental covariates related to increased time at surface, particularly for depth, salinity, and frontal features. We define seasonal and spatial variation in time-at-surface patterns in an effort to contribute to marine turtle density and abundance estimates. These estimates could then be utilized to generate correction factors for turtle detection availability during aerial surveys.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2012

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year −1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month −1 year −1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS1996

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the cascadia margin

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional ( x-t ) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional ( x-y-t ) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous ‘tsunami earthquakes’ that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2010

Dissolved organic carbon export and internal cycling in small, headwater lakes

Carbon (C) cycling in freshwater lakes is intense but poorly integrated into our current understanding of overall C transport from the land to the oceans. We quantified dissolved organic carbon export (DOC X ) and compared it with modeled gross DOC mineralization (DOC R ) to determine whether hydrologic or within-lake processes dominated DOC cycling in a small headwaters watershed in Minnesota, USA. We also used DOC optical properties to gather information about DOC sources. We then compared our results to a data set of approximately 1500 lakes in the Eastern USA (Eastern Lake Survey, ELS, data set) to place our results in context of lakes more broadly. In the open-basin lakes in our watershed ( n = 5), DOC X ranged from 60 to 183 g C m −2 lake area yr −1 , whereas DOC R ranged from 15 to 21 g C m −2 lake area yr −1 , emphasizing that lateral DOC fluxes dominated. DOC X calculated in our study watershed clustered near the 75th percentile of open-basin lakes in the ELS data set, suggesting that these results were not unusual. In contrast, DOC X in closed-basin lakes ( n = 2) was approximately 5 g C m −2 lake area yr −1 , whereas DOC R was 37 to 42 g C m −2 lake area yr −1 , suggesting that internal C cycling dominated. In the ELS data set, median DOC X was 32 and 12 g C m −2 yr −1 in open-basin and closed-basin lakes, respectively. Although not as high as what was observed in our study watershed, DOC X is an important component of lake C flux more generally, particularly in open-basin lakes.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2023

Long-term trends in Arctic riverine chemistry signal multi-faceted northern change

Rivers integrate processes occurring throughout their watersheds and are therefore sentinels of change across broad spatial scales. River chemistry also regulates ecosystem function across Earth’s land–ocean continuum, exerting control from the micro- (for example, local food web) to the macro- (for example, global carbon cycle) scale. In the rapidly warming Arctic, a wide range of processes—from permafrost thaw to biological uptake and transformation—might reasonably alter river water chemistry. Here we use data from major rivers that collectively drain two-thirds of the Arctic Ocean watershed to assess widespread change in biogeochemical function within the pan-Arctic basin from 2003 to 2019. While the oceanward flux of alkalinity and associated ions increased markedly over this time frame, nitrate and other inorganic nutrient fluxes declined. Fluxes of dissolved organic carbon showed no overall trend. This divergence in response indicates the perturbation of multiple processes on land, with implications for biogeochemical cycling in the coastal ocean. We anticipate that these findings will facilitate refinement of conceptual and numerical models of current and future functioning of Arctic coastal ecosystems and spur research on scale-dependent change across the river-integrated Arctic domain.

Arctic↗

USGS2013

Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of Arctic river networks

Terrestrial carbon dynamics inﬂuence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildﬁres. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to inﬂuence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon ﬂux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil proﬁle, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic efﬂuents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2010

Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

Book↗

USGS2016

Processes of multibathyal aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean

During 3 years of study (2010–2012), the western Arctic Ocean was found to have unique aragonite saturation profiles with up to three distinct aragonite undersaturation zones. This complexity is produced as inflow of Atlantic-derived and Pacific-derived water masses mix with Arctic-derived waters, which are further modified by physiochemical and biological processes. The shallowest aragonite undersaturation zone, from the surface to ∼30 m depth is characterized by relatively low alkalinity and other dissolved ions. Besides local influence of biological processes on aragonite undersaturation of shallow coastal waters, the nature of this zone is consistent with dilution by sea-ice melt and invasion of anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere. A second undersaturated zone at ∼90–220 m depth (salinity ∼31.8–35.4) occurs within the Arctic Halocline and is characterized by elevated p CO 2 and nutrients. The nature of this horizon is consistent with remineralization of organic matter on shallow continental shelves bordering the Canada Basin and the input of the nutrients and CO 2 entrained by currents from the Pacific Inlet. Finally, the deepest aragonite undersaturation zone is at greater than 2000 m depth and is controlled by similar processes as deep aragonite saturation horizons in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The comparatively shallow depth of this deepest aragonite saturation horizon in the Arctic is maintained by relatively low temperatures, and stable chemical composition. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the distribution of these aragonite undersaturation zones, and the time scales over which they operate will be crucial to refine predictive models.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans↗

USGS1987

Subsidence, crustal structure, and thermal evolution of Georges Bank basin

A geophysical study of Georges Bank basin defines a deep crustal structure that is interpreted in terms of the basin's tectonic and thermal history. Gravity models along three basin cross sections delineate two zones of crustal thinning at the basement hinge zone and oceanic crustal margins. These two zones bound rift-stage crust (about 25 km thick) which underlies the central portion of the basin. Subsidence analysis of the basin, using data from multichannel seismic reflection lines and two COST wells, suggests a rifting and (uniform) extensional origin. Two-dimensional finite difference modeling of the basin defines a crustal structure that concurs with the gravity and subsidence studies. The resulting isotherms show no major changes in the thermal structure since the ate Jurassic. In some areas of the basin, temperatures sufficient for oil generation are determined from maturation studies of Jurassic sediments. Hydrocarbon generation is questionable, however, because of the probable lack of proper and sufficient kerogen in the Jurassic deposits.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗