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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Numerical experiments to explain multiscale hydrological responses to mountain pine beetle tree mortality in a headwater watershed

The effects of mountain pine beetle (MPB)-induced tree mortality on a headwater hydrologic system were investigated using an integrated physical modeling framework with a high-resolution computational grid. Simulations of MPB-affected and unaffected conditions, each with identical atmospheric forcing for a normal water year, were compared at multiple scales to evaluate the effects of scale on MPB-affected hydrologic systems. Individual locations within the larger model were shown to maintain hillslope-scale processes affecting snowpack dynamics, total evapotranspiration, and soil moisture that are comparable to several field-based studies and previous modeling work. Hillslope-scale analyses also highlight the influence of compensating changes in evapotranspiration and snow processes. Reduced transpiration in the Grey Phase of MPB-induced tree mortality was offset by increased late-summer evaporation, while overall snowpack dynamics were more dependent on elevation effects than MPB-induced tree mortality. At the watershed scale, unaffected areas obscured the magnitude of MPB effects. Annual water yield from the watershed increased during Grey Phase simulations by 11 percent; a difference that would be difficult to diagnose with long-term gage observations that are complicated by inter-annual climate variability. The effects on hydrology observed and simulated at the hillslope scale can be further damped at the watershed scale, which spans more life zones and a broader range of landscape properties. These scaling effects may change under extreme conditions, e.g., increased total MPB-affected area or a water year with above average snowpack.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2017

Hydrologic impacts of landslide disturbances: Implications for remobilization and hazard persistence

Landslides typically alter hillslope topography, but may also change the hydrologic connectivity and subsurface water-storage dynamics. In settings where mobile materials are not completely evacuated from steep slopes, influences of landslide disturbances on hillslope hydrology and susceptibility to subsequent failures remain poorly characterized. Since landslides often recur at the site of previous failures, we examine differences between a stable vegetated hillslope (VH) and a recent landslide (LS). These neighboring hillslopes exhibit similar topography and are situated on steep landslide-prone coastal bluffs of glacial deposits along the northeastern shore of Puget Sound, Washington. Our control hillslope, VH, is mantled by a heterogeneous colluvium, supporting a dense forest. In early 2013, our test hillslope, LS, also supported a forest before a landslide substantially altered the topography and disturbed the hillslope. In 2015, we observed a clay-rich landslide deposit at LS with sparse vegetation and limited root reinforcement, soil structures, and macropores. Our characterization of the sites also found matrix porosity and hydraulic conductivity are both lower at LS. Continuous monitoring during 2015-2016 revealed reduced effective precipitation at VH (due to canopy interception), an earlier seasonal transition to near-saturated conditions at LS, and longer persistence of positive pore pressures and slower drainage at LS (both seasonally and between major storm events). These differences, along with episodic, complex slope failures at LS support the hypothesis that, despite a reduced average slope, other disturbances introduced by landsliding may promote the hydrologic conditions leading to slope instability, thus contributing to the persistence of landslide hazards.

Washington↗

USGS2015

A comparison of hydrologic models for ecological flows and water availability

Robust hydrologic models are needed to help manage water resources for healthy aquatic ecosystems and reliable water supplies for people, but there is a lack of comprehensive model comparison studies that quantify differences in streamflow predictions among model applications developed to answer management questions. We assessed differences in daily streamflow predictions by four fine-scale models and two regional-scale monthly time step models by comparing model fit statistics and bias in ecologically relevant flow statistics (ERFSs) at five sites in the Southeastern USA. Models were calibrated to different extents, including uncalibrated (level A), calibrated to a downstream site (level B), calibrated specifically for the site (level C) and calibrated for the site with adjusted precipitation and temperature inputs (level D). All models generally captured the magnitude and variability of observed streamflows at the five study sites, and increasing level of model calibration generally improved performance. All models had at least 1 of 14 ERFSs falling outside a +/−30% range of hydrologic uncertainty at every site, and ERFSs related to low flows were frequently over-predicted. Our results do not indicate that any specific hydrologic model is superior to the others evaluated at all sites and for all measures of model performance. Instead, we provide evidence that (1) model performance is as likely to be related to calibration strategy as it is to model structure and (2) simple, regional-scale models have comparable performance to the more complex, fine-scale models at a monthly time step.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2020

Oases of the future? Evaluating springs as potential hydrologic refugia in drying climates

Springs in water-limited landscapes are biodiversity hotspots and keystone ecosystems, disproportionately influencing surrounding landscapes despite their often small areas. Some springs served as evolutionary refugia during previous climate drying, supporting relict species in isolated habitats. Understanding whether springs will provide hydrologic refugia from future climate change is important to biodiversity conservation but complicated by hydrologic variability among springs, data limitations, and multiple non-climate threats to groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we present a conceptual framework for categorizing springs as potentially stable, relative, or transient hydrologic refugia in a drying climate. Clues about refugial capacity of springs can be assembled from diverse approaches, including citizen-science-powered ecohydrologic monitoring, remote sensing, landowner interviews, and environmental tracer analysis. Managers can integrate multiple lines of evidence to predict which springs may become future refugia for species of concern, strengthening the long-term effectiveness of springs conservation and restoration and informing climate adaptation for terrestrial and freshwater species.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2005

Application of wavelet analysis for monitoring the hydrologic effects of dam operation: Glen canyon dam and the Colorado River at lees ferry, Arizona

Wavelet analysis is a powerful tool with which to analyse the hydrologic effects of dam construction and operation on river systems. Using continuous records of instantaneous discharge from the Lees Ferry gauging station and records of daily mean discharge from upstream tributaries, we conducted wavelet analyses of the hydrologic structure of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. The wavelet power spectrum (WPS) of daily mean discharge provided a highly compressed and integrative picture of the post-dam elimination of pronounced annual and sub-annual flow features. The WPS of the continuous record showed the influence of diurnal and weekly power generation cycles, shifts in discharge management, and the 1996 experimental flood in the post-dam period. Normalization of the WPS by local wavelet spectra revealed the fine structure of modulation in discharge scale and amplitude and provides an extremely efficient tool with which to assess the relationships among hydrologic cycles and ecological and geomorphic systems. We extended our analysis to sections of the Snake River and showed how wavelet analysis can be used as a data mining technique. The wavelet approach is an especially promising tool with which to assess dam operation in less well-studied regions and to evaluate management attempts to reconstruct desired flow characteristics. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2021

Middle Holocene hydrologic changes catalyzed by river avulsion in Big Soda Lake, Nevada, USA

Big Soda Lake is a 63 m deep, 1.6 km 2 maar lake in the Great Basin of Nevada, USA. Water level in the lake is controlled by groundwater inputs from the surrounding aquifer and the only surface water input is rainfall, which is negligible. A core taken in 2010 records an 8.75 m depositional history of the lake. A radiocarbon date on fossil pollen from 8.4 m below the sediment water interface (BSWI) of 14,740 (+1120/−825) cal yr BP suggests that the core may cover the latest Pleistocene and Holocene depositional history of the lake. Stable isotope values of oxygen and carbon (δ 18 O and δ 13 C) on authigenic calcite, diatom assemblages, and sedimentary structures all show consistent hydrological change from initially saline water at the bottom of the core to fresh/brackish water at about 6 m BWSI, back to saline water at 4.3 m. At 4.3 m depth, the bedding and color of the core change abruptly, and the stable- isotope and diatom assemblages indicate a consistently hypersaline lake until near the top of the core, when fresh water entered the lake due to irrigation and canal building in the twentieth century. The stable isotopes of the calcite abruptly change from inversely varying isotopic compositions below 4.3 m depth to covarying above. This break between relatively fresh and saline conditions in the lake occurs during the middle Holocene, although the exact timing of the transition is unknown due to variability in the 14 C age determinations. The cause for such an abrupt change is difficult to explain through climate shifts, as evidence suggests climate in the Great Basin was different from what the Big Soda Lake record indicates in the Early Holocene. It is hypothesized that the Walker River flowed to the Carson River basin before 5600 cal yr BP, with water either flowing directly into the lake or raising the groundwater table sufficiently to freshen Big Soda Lake. The initial increase in salinity likely was caused by decreased flow of the Walker River due to Middle Holocene aridity. The lake level lowered slowly, and more saline conditions prevailed until 4.3 m depth when water from the Walker River stopped flowing into the Carson River basin. Above 4.3 m depth, diatom and isotopic evidence indicates that the lake became consistently saline. The isotopic and diatom assemblage transitions observed in Big Soda Lake sediment are not consistent with climate reconstructions and demonstrate that hydrologic shifts in a basin can be an important driver of change regardless of climatic conditions. However, climate shifts may also play a role in the hydrologic changes by supplying more or less water to river courses that may induce river avulsion.

Nevada↗

USGS1995

Hydrological processes and the water budget of lakes

Lakes interact with all components of the hydrological system: atmospheric water, surface water, and groundwater. The fluxes of water to and from lakes with regard to each of these components represent the water budget of a lake. Mathematically, the concept of a water budget is deceptively simple: income equals outgo, plus or minus change in storage. In practice, however, measuring the water fluxes to and from lakes accurately is not simple, because understanding of the various hydrological processes and the ability to measure the various hydrological components are limited.

Book chapter↗

USGS1999

Characterizing hydrology and the importance of ground-water discharge in natural and constructed wetlands

Although considered the most important component for the establishment and persistence of wetlands, hydrology has been hard to characterize and linkages between hydrology and other environmental conditions are often poorly understood. In this work, methods for characterizing a wetland’s hydrology from hydrographs were developed, and the importance of ground water to the physical and geochemical conditions in the root zone was investigated. Detailed sampling of nearly continuous hydrographs showed that sites with greater ground-water discharge had higher water tables and more stable hydrographs. Subsampling of the continuous hydrograph failed to characterize the sites correctly, even though the wetland complex is located in a strong regional ground-water-discharge area. By comparing soil-moisture-potential measurements to the water-table hydrograph at one site, we noted that the amount of root-zone saturation was not necessarily driven by the water-table hydrograph but can be a result of other soil parameters (i.e., soil texture and associated capillary fringe). Ground-water discharge was not a significant determinant of maximum or average temperatures in the root zone. High ground-water discharge was associated with earliest date of thaw and shortest period of time that the root zone was frozen, however. Finally, the direction and magnitude of shallow ground-water flow was found to affect the migration and importance of a geochemical species. Areas of higher ground-water discharge had less downward penetration of CO 2 generated in the root zone. In contrast, biotically derived CO 2 was able to penetrate the deeper ground-water system in areas of ground-water recharge. Although ground-water flows are difficult to characterize, understanding these components is critical to the success of wetland restoration and creation efforts.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Importance of riparian forests in urban catchments contingent on sediment and hydrologic regimes

Forested riparian corridors are thought to minimize impacts of landscape disturbance on stream ecosystems; yet, the effectiveness of streamside forests in mitigating disturbance in urbanizing catchments is unknown. We expected that riparian forests would provide minimal benefits for fish assemblages in streams that are highly impaired by sediment or hydrologic alteration. We tested this hypothesis in 30 small streams along a gradient of urban disturbance (1–65% urban land cover). Species expected to be sensitive to disturbance (i.e., fluvial specialists and “sensitive” species that respond negatively to urbanization) were best predicted by models including percent forest cover in the riparian corridor and a principal components axis describing sediment disturbance. Only sites with coarse bed sediment and low bed mobility (vs. sites with high amounts of fine sediment) had increased richness and abundances of sensitive species with higher percent riparian forests, supporting our hypothesis that response to riparian forests is contingent on the sediment regime. Abundances of Etheostoma scotti , the federally threatened Cherokee darter, were best predicted by models with single variables representing stormflow ( r 2 = 0.34) and sediment ( r 2 = 0.23) conditions. Lentic-tolerant species richness and abundance responded only to a variable representing prolonged duration of low-flow conditions. For these species, hydrologic alteration overwhelmed any influence of riparian forests on stream biota. These results suggest that, at a minimum, catchment management strategies must simultaneously address hydrologic, sediment, and riparian disturbance in order to protect all aspects of fish assemblage integrity.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2011

Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs.

Colorado, Georgia↗

USGS2018

Integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic monitoring with empirical rainfall thresholds to improve landslide early warning

Early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landsliding can help reduce fatalities and economic losses. Although these commonly occurring landslides are typically triggered by subsurface hydrological processes, most early warning criteria rely exclusively on empirical rainfall thresholds and other indirect proxies for subsurface wetness. We explore the utility of explicitly accounting for antecedent wetness by integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements into landslide early warning criteria. Our efforts build on previous progress with rainfall thresholds, monitoring, and numerical modeling along the landslide-prone railway corridor between Everett and Seattle, Washington, USA. We propose a modification to a previously established recent versus antecedent (RA) cumulative rainfall thresholds by replacing the antecedent 15-day rainfall component with an average saturation observed over the same timeframe. We calculate this antecedent saturation with real-time telemetered measurements from five volumetric water content probes installed in the shallow subsurface within a steep vegetated hillslope. Our hybrid rainfall versus saturation (RS) threshold still relies on the same recent 3-day rainfall component as the existing RA thresholds, to facilitate ready integration with quantitative precipitation forecasts. During the 2015–2017 monitoring period, this RS hybrid approach has an increase of true positives and a decrease of false positives and false negatives relative to the previous RA rainfall-only thresholds. We also demonstrate that alternative hybrid threshold formats could be even more accurate, which suggests that further development and testing during future landslide seasons is needed. The positive results confirm that accounting for antecedent wetness conditions with direct subsurface hydrologic measurements can improve thresholds for alert systems and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding.

Landslides↗

USGS2021

Critical shallow and deep hydrologic conditions associated with widespread landslides during a series of storms between February and April 2018 in Pittsburgh and vicinity, western Pennsylvania, USA

The potential for widespread landslides is generally increased when extraordinary wet periods occur during times of elevated subsurface hydrologic conditions. A series of storms in early 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, overlapped with a period of increased shallow soil moisture and rising bedrock groundwater levels resulting from seasonally diminished evapotranspiration and induced widespread landslides in the region. Most of the landslides were shallow slope failures in colluvium, landslide deposits, and/or fill. However, deep-seated landslide activity also occurred and corresponded with record cumulative precipitation from late February to April and bedrock groundwater levels rising to an annual high. Landslides blocked or damaged roads, adversely affected multiple houses, disrupted electrical service, crushed vehicles, and resulted in considerable economic losses. The initial landslides occurred during or immediately after a rare period of three successive days of heavy rain that began on February 14. Subsequent landslides between late February and April were induced by multiday storms with smaller rainfall totals. As shallow soil moisture at a monitoring site rose above a volumetric water content of 32%, the mean rainfall intensities necessary to induce slope failure in colluvium and other surficial deposits decreased. Deep-seated landslide movement occurred in the region mostly when the groundwater level in a bedrock observation well was shallower than 1.7 m. The availability of hydrologic and landslide movement monitoring data during this extraordinary series of storms highlighted the evolution of the landslide hazard with changing moisture conditions and yielded insights into potential hydrologic criteria for anticipating future widespread landslides in the region.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2020

Experimental shifts of hydrologic residence time in a sandy urban stream sediment-water interface alter nitrate removal and nitrous oxide fluxes

The sediment–water interfaces (SWI) of streams serve as important biogeochemical hotspots in watersheds and contribute to whole-catchment reactive nitrogen budgets and water-quality conditions. Recently, the SWI has been identified as an important source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) produced in streams, with SWI residence time among the principal controls on its production. Here, we conducted a series of controlled manipulations of SWI exchange in an urban stream that has high dissolved N 2 O concentrations and where we concurrently evaluated less-mobile porosity dynamics. Our experiments took place within isolated portions of two sediment types: a coarse sandy stream bed resulting from excess road-sand application in the watershed, and a coarse sand mixed with clay and organic particles. In these manipulation experiments we systematically varied SWI vertical-flux rates and residence times to evaluate their effect on the fate of nitrate and production rates of N 2 O. Our experiments demonstrate that the fate and transport of nitrate and N 2 O production are influenced by hydrologic flux rates through SWI sediments and associated residence times. Specifically, we show that manipulations of hydrologic flux systematically shifted the depth of the bulk oxic–anoxic interface in the sediments, and that nitrate removal increased with residence time. Our results also support the emerging hypothesis of a ‘Goldilocks’ timescale for the production of nitrous oxide, when transport and reaction timescales favor incomplete denitrification. Areal N 2 O production rates were up to threefold higher during an intermediate residence-time experiment, compared to shorter or longer residence times. In our companion study we documented that the studied sediments were dominated by a long-residence-time less-mobile porosity domain, which could explain why we observed N 2 O production even in bulk-oxic sediments. Overall, we have experimentally demonstrated that changes to SWI hydrologic residence times and SWI substrate associated with urbanization can change the biogeochemical function of the river corridor.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2011

Hydrological effects of the increased CO 2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT

Increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO 2 and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO 2 concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO 2 based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO 2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO 2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO 2 concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (2071–2100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.

Mississippi River Basin↗

USGS2011

Hydrologic and geomorphic considerations in restoration of river-floodplain connectivity in a highly altered river system, Lower Missouri River, USA

Planning for restoration of river-floodplain systems requires understanding how often and how much of a floodplain may be inundated, and how likely the floodplain is to retain the water once flooded. These factors depend fundamentally on hydrology and geomorphology of the channel and floodplain. We discuss application of an index of river-floodplain connectivity, the Land Capability Potential Index (LCPI), to regional-scale restoration planning along 600 km of the Lower Missouri River. The LCPI integrates modeled water-surface elevations, floodplain topography, and soils to index relative wetness of floodplain patches. Geomorphic adjustment of the Lower Missouri River to impoundment and channel engineering has altered the natural relations among hydrology, geomorphology, and floodplain soils, and has resulted in a regional upstream to downstream gradient in connectivity potential. As a result, flow-regime management is limited in its capacity to restore floodplain ecosystems. The LCPI provides a tool for identifying and mapping floodplain restoration potential, accounting for the geomorphic adjustment. Using simple criteria, we illustrate the utility of LCPI-like approaches in regional planning for restoration of plains cottonwood ( Populus deltoides ) communities, hydrologically connected floodplain wetlands, and seasonal floodplain wetlands.

Lower Missouri River↗

USGS2014

Anuran site occupancy and species richness as tools for evaluating restoration of a hydrologically-modified landscape

A fundamental goal of wetland restoration is to reinstate pre-disturbance hydrological conditions to degraded landscapes, facilitating recolonization by native species and the production of resilient, functional ecosystems. To evaluate restoration success, baseline conditions need to be determined and a reference target needs to be established that will serve as an ecological blueprint in the restoration process. During the summer wet seasons of 2010 and 2011, we used automated recording units to monitor a community of calling anuran amphibians in the Picayune Strand State Forest of Southwest Florida, USA. This area is undergoing hydrological restoration as part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. We compared occurrence of anurans at sites in the restoration area, to nearby locations in relatively undisturbed habitat (reference sites). We assessed the utility of the latter as restoration targets, using a hierarchical model of community species occupancy to estimate the probability of occurrence of anurans in restoration and reference locations. We detected 14 species, 13 of which were significantly more likely to occur in reference areas. All 14 species were estimated by our model to occur at these sites but, across both years, only 8–13 species were estimated to occur at restoration sites. The composition and structure of these habitats within and adjacent to the Picayune Strand State Forest indicate that they are suitable targets for habitat restoration, as measured by amphibian occurrence and species richness. These areas are important sources for recolonization of anuran amphibians as the hydrologically degraded Picayune Strand undergoes restoration to mitigate the effects of overdrainage and habitat loss.

Florida↗

USGS2026

Modeling carbon fluxes in tidal forested wetlands in the Mississippi river deltaic plain under various hydrologic conditions: Implications for river diversions

Our understanding of the impacts of climate change, sea-level rise (SLR), and freshwater management on the magnitude and variability of carbon fluxes in tidal forested wetlands remains limited. In this study, we applied a process-driven wetland biogeochemistry model, Wetland Carbon Assessment Tool—DeNitrification-DeComposition (WCAT-DNDC) model to explore responses of carbon fluxes in tidal swamp forests to climate change-induced alterations in hydrologic conditions and to predict impacts of planned reintroduction of river flows. We selected twelve sites in three habitats (throughput, relict, degraded) inside the Lake Maurepas swamp forests (Louisiana, USA) to represent various hydrological and salinity regimes. Environmental scenarios included dry, average, and wet conditions, SLR (low and high), and a Mississippi River (MR) diversion. Simulation results showed that the responses of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), net primary productivity (NPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions in the Lake Maurepas swamp forests varied substantially among sites. However, the overall net carbon uptake capacity of the Lake Maurepas swamp forests was high (NEE: − 1143 to − 1650 g C m −2 yr −1 ), suggesting that Lake Maurepas swamp forests are large carbon sinks. The high net carbon uptake capacity could be significantly affected by climate change induced drought, flooding, and SLR with the bi-directional changes (increase or decrease) depending on the direction and magnitude of the hydrologic regime changes. The response of the net carbon uptake capacity to MR diversion is also bi-directional and site-specific, but enhancement of the capacity of NEE of up to − 1957 g C m 2 yr −1 is possible, implying that MR diversion into the swamp forests could be beneficial in the context of carbon cycling and carbon sequestration.

Louisiana↗

USGS2008

A simulation of historic hydrology and salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling paleoecologic assemblage data with regression models

Restoration of Florida’s Everglades requires scientifically supportable hydrologic targets. This study establishes a restoration baseline by developing a method to simulate hydrologic and salinity conditions prior to anthropogenic changes. The method couples paleoecologic data on long-term historic ecosystem conditions with statistical models derived from observed meteorologic and hydrologic data that provide seasonal and annual variation. Results indicate that pre-drainage freshwater levels and hydroperiods in major sloughs of the Everglades were about 0.15 m higher and two to four times greater, respectively, on average compared to today’s values. Pre-drainage freshwater delivered to the wetlands and estuaries is estimated to be 2.5 to four times greater than the modern-day flow, and the largest deficit is during the dry season. In Florida Bay, salinity has increased between 5.3 and 20.1 with the largest differences in the areas near freshwater outflow points. These results suggest that additional freshwater flows to the Everglades are needed for restoration of the freshwater marshes of the Everglades and estuarine environment of Florida Bay, particularly near the end of the dry season.

Estuaries and Coasts↗