SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Freshwater Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Mixed evidence for biotic homogenization of southern Appalachian fish communities

Anthropogenic impacts on the landscape can drive biotic homogenization, whereby distinct biological communities become more similar to one another over time. Land-use change in the Southern Appalachian region is expected to result in homogenization of the highly diverse freshwater fish communities as in-stream habitat alterations favor widespread cosmopolitan species at the expense of more narrowly distributed highland endemic species. We compiled four datasets spanning 25 years to (1) evaluate the effects of environmental factors on relative abundance and richness of highland endemic vs. cosmopolitan species in this region and (2) test for taxonomic homogenization, measured as a change in beta diversity over time. We found that several environmental factors differentially affected highland endemic and cosmopolitan species, with the proportion of forested land cover in a watershed most strongly predicting higher relative abundance and richness of highland endemic species. Our analysis of beta diversity change, however, shows mixed evidence of taxonomic homogenization, depending on how common species are weighted. Shifts in community composition, with or without homogenization, may warrant attention in biodiversity conservation planning.

Georgia, North Carolina↗

USGS2025

The Southwestern Pond Turtle (Actinemys pallida) in Baja California, Mexico: New localities and persistent threats

The Southwestern Pond Turtle ( Actinemys pallida ), the only native freshwater turtle in Baja California, is experiencing alarming population declines, echoing global patterns observed in freshwater turtles. We conducted comprehensive field surveys across the major drainages of northwestern Baja California to delineate the species' current distribution, identify critical threats to its persistence, and provide guidance for conservation actions. We documented the continued presence of A. pallida at 27 sites across 10 watersheds, ranging from sea level to 1,525 m in elevation. These include nine historically known sites and 18 newly recorded localities. The most pervasive threats we identified were habitat degradation, the proliferation of invasive aquatic species, and unsustainable water extraction. Despite these pressures, our findings confirm that A. pallida still occupies much of its historical range. However, urgent ecological research is needed to inform evidence-based strategies that ensure the long-term viability of this imperiled species.

Baja California↗

USGS2012

Movement patterns of Antillean manatees in Chetumal Bay (Mexico) and coastal Belize: A challenge for regional conservation

Information from 15 satellite-tracked Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) was analyzed in order to assess individual movements, home ranges, and high-use areas for conservation decisions. Manatees were captured in Chetumal Bay, Mexico, and tagged with Argos-monitored satellite transmitters. Location of the manatees and physical characteristics were assessed to describe habitat properties. Most manatees traveled to freshwater sources. The Maximum Area Size (MAS) for each manatee was determined using the observation-area method. Additional kernel densities of 95% home range and 50% Center of Activity (COA) were also calculated, with manatees having 1–3 COAs. Manatees exhibited two different movement patterns: remaining in Chetumal Bay, and long-distance (up to 240 km in 89 d). The residence time in Chetumal Bay was higher for females (89.6% of time) than for males (72.0%), but the daily travel rate (0.4–0.5 km/d) was similar for both sexes. Most of the COAs fell within Natural Protected Areas (NPA). However, manatees also travel for long distances into unprotected areas, where they face uncontrolled boat traffic, fishing activities, and habitat loss. Conservation of movement corridors may promote long-distance movements and facilitate genetic exchange.

Chetumal Bay↗

USGS2008

Arctic lake physical processes and regimes with implications for winter water availability and management in the national petroleum reserve alaska

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2016

Comparative evaluation of statistical and mechanistic models of Escherichia coli at beaches in southern Lake Michigan

Statistical and mechanistic models are popular tools for predicting the levels of indicator bacteria at recreational beaches. Researchers tend to use one class of model or the other, and it is difficult to generalize statements about their relative performance due to differences in how the models are developed, tested, and used. We describe a cooperative modeling approach for freshwater beaches impacted by point sources in which insights derived from mechanistic modeling were used to further improve the statistical models and vice versa. The statistical models provided a basis for assessing the mechanistic models which were further improved using probability distributions to generate high-resolution time series data at the source, long-term “tracer” transport modeling based on observed electrical conductivity, better assimilation of meteorological data, and the use of unstructured-grids to better resolve nearshore features. This approach resulted in improved models of comparable performance for both classes including a parsimonious statistical model suitable for real-time predictions based on an easily measurable environmental variable (turbidity). The modeling approach outlined here can be used at other sites impacted by point sources and has the potential to improve water quality predictions resulting in more accurate estimates of beach closures.

Lake Michigan, Ogden Dunes↗

USGS1992

Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program: Data availability and research at the Northern Temperate Lakes site in north-central Wisconsin

More than three thousand kettle lakes, widely dispersed within a mixed temperate forest ecosystem, are predominant features of the Northern Highland area of north-central Wisconsin. A hydrological and biogeochemical investigation of seven of these lakes and their watershed area is currently in progress as part of the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The objectives of the overall WEBB program are to: (1) improve understanding of processes controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes in freshwater systems, the interactions among those processes, and their relations to climatic variables; and (2) improve the capability to predict freshwater, energy, and biogeochemical budgets over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The focus of the WEBB project in Wisconsin is hydrologic research in the Northern Temperate Lakes (NTL) area of the state. Based on the premise that an understanding of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles in the watershed is predicated on a thorough understanding of the individual components that control the water flow, the project involves a detailed study of the hydrologic budget, including the roles of rainfall, streamflow, ground water, and flow in the unsaturated zone. It also involves investigation of ground-water/ surface-water interactions. The objectives of the Northern Temperate Lakes WEBB project are to: (1) describe processes controlling water and solute fluxes in the NTL watersheds; (2) examine interactions among those processes and their relations to climatic variables; and (3) improve the capability to predict changes in water and solute fluxes for a range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of procedures will be used to address the objectives of the project including: installation of piezometers, lysimeters, stream-gaging sites, precipitation collectors, climate-monitoring instruments; analysis of transport of nutrients and other solutes through the system; analysis of changes in isotopic composition of water; and temperature profiling. The implementation of these procedures is described in this report. The NTL-WEBB study area includes seven lakes that are also the site of a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) project, sponsored by the National Science Foundation. This project incorporates diverse research investigations conducted by faculty and research associates of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The research orientation of NTL-LTER is principally toward aquatic ecology and geochemistry of the lakes. The WEBB research plan, with its emphasis on hydrologic processes in the lake watersheds, is designed to complement and enhance the LTER work.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Evidence of prevalent heat stress in Yukon River Chinook salmon

Migrating adult Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) are sensitive to warm water (>18 °C), with a range of consequences from decreased spawning success to early mortality. We examined the proportion of Yukon River Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) exhibiting evidence of heat stress to assess the potential that high temperatures contribute to freshwater adult mortality in a northern Pacific salmon population. Water temperatures greater than 18 °C have occurred almost annually in the Yukon River and correspond with low population abundance since the 1990s. Using gene transcription products and heat shock protein 70 biomarkers validated by field experiment, we identified heat stress in half of Chinook salmon examined (54%, n = 477) across three mainstem locations and three tributaries in 2016–2017. Biomarkers tracked wide variation in water temperature (14–23 °C) within a tributary. The proportion of salmon with heat stress differed between years at four of the six locations, with more prevalent heat stress in the warmer year. This work demonstrates that warming water temperatures are currently affecting northern populations of Pacific salmon.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Reassessing particulate organic carbon dynamics in the highly disturbed San Francisco Bay Estuary

Environmental research has been shifting toward a new normal in which a primary focus is to capture change that may be accelerating. In this study, we collected particulate samples in the northern San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE) in the fall of 2011 through the spring of 2012 in order to assess vascular plant contributions across both time and space and to compare our findings with a similar set of samples from 1990 to 1992. Across the ∼20-year span, we detected (1) decreasing C:N a ratios (averages ± SD of 12.5 ± 2.5 vs. 8.8 ± 1.4, significant t -test with p < 0.0001); (2) distinct shifts in chlorophyll vs. salinity, with higher chlorophyll concentrations shifting toward freshwater; and (3) greater relative proportions of vascular plant carbon that also appears less degraded (as indicated by lignin measurements) shifting from freshwater toward higher salinities. Lignin compositional data (syringyl:vanillyl and cinnamyl:vanillyl) suggest that increased lignin content in the more saline samples could be derived from wetland materials, while a two-endmember mixing model indicates that a significant portion of the particulate organic carbon (POC) in the western sites (50–60% as an upper bound, 13–15% as a lower bound) could be wetland-derived. This has potential implications for the lower food web, given recent work that demonstrates selective feeding by copepods on wetland detrital material in the northern SFBE. The latter has ramifications for proposed wetland restoration within the SFBE and Sacramento River/San Joaquin River Delta system, namely, that restored wetlands could confer important benefits toward the food web. Equally important is to prioritize continued monitoring of particulate organic matter cycling in the SFBE system to make sure that changing conditions are accounted for in any management decision.

California↗

USGS2019

Evidence for plunging river plume deposits in the Pahrump Hills member of the Murray formation, Gale crater, Mars

Recent robotic missions to Mars have offered new insights into the extent, diversity and habitability of the Martian sedimentary rock record. Since the Curiosity rover landed in Gale crater in August 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory Science Team has explored the origins and habitability of ancient fluvial, deltaic, lacustrine and aeolian deposits preserved within the crater. This study describes the sedimentology of a ca 13 m thick succession named the Pahrump Hills member of the Murray formation, the first thick fine‐grained deposit discovered in situ on Mars. This work evaluates the depositional processes responsible for its formation and reconstructs its palaeoenvironmental setting. The Pahrump Hills succession can be sub‐divided into four distinct sedimentary facies: (i) thinly laminated mudstone; (ii) low‐angle cross‐stratified mudstone; (iii) cross‐stratified sandstone; and (iv) thickly laminated mudstone–sandstone. The very fine grain size of the mudstone facies and abundant millimetre‐scale and sub‐millimetre‐scale laminations exhibiting quasi‐uniform thickness throughout the Pahrump Hills succession are most consistent with lacustrine deposition. Low‐angle geometric discordances in the mudstone facies are interpreted as ‘scour and drape’ structures and suggest the action of currents, such as those associated with hyperpycnal river‐generated plumes plunging into a lake. Observation of an overall upward coarsening in grain size and thickening of laminae throughout the Pahrump Hills succession is consistent with deposition from basinward progradation of a fluvial‐deltaic system derived from the northern crater rim into the Gale crater lake. Palaeohydraulic modelling constrains the salinity of the ancient lake in Gale crater: assuming river sediment concentrations typical of floods on Earth, plunging river plumes and sedimentary structures like those observed at Pahrump Hills would have required lake densities near freshwater to form. The depositional model for the Pahrump Hills member presented here implies the presence of an ancient sustained, habitable freshwater lake in Gale crater for at least ca 10 3 to 10 7 Earth years.

Sedimentology↗

USGS2023

Linking ecosystem processes to consumer growth rates: Gross primary productivity as a driver of freshwater fish somatic growth in a resource-limited river

Individual growth can exert strong controls on population dynamics and be constrained by resource acquisition rates. Difficulty in accurately quantifying resource availability over large spatial extents and at high temporal frequency often limits attempts to understand the extent that resources limit individual growth. Daily estimates of stream metabolism, including gross primary productivity (GPP), are increasingly available but have not, to our knowledge, been linked to fish growth. Here we examine how GPP, water temperature, high flow and turbidity are linked to spatiotemporal variation in growth of flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis). We fit state space growth models to six years of mark-recapture data collected in four river reaches spanning 300 river kilometers. Consistent with past research in this system, we find that water temperature is the dominant driver of spatiotemporal variation in growth. However, we also find that GPP is strongly linked to fish growth. Fish growth is likely to be linked to stream metabolism in other systems where overall productivity, not the quality of primary producers, limits the food webs that support fish growth.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

A spatial classification and database for management, research, and policy making: The Great Lakes aquatic habitat framework

Managing the world's largest and most complex freshwater ecosystem, the Laurentian Great Lakes, requires a spatially hierarchical basin-wide database of ecological and socioeconomic information that is comparable across the region. To meet such a need, we developed a spatial classification framework and database — Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework (GLAHF). GLAHF consists of catchments, coastal terrestrial, coastal margin, nearshore, and offshore zones that encompass the entire Great Lakes Basin. The catchments captured in the database as river pour points or coastline segments are attributed with data known to influence physicochemical and biological characteristics of the lakes from the catchments. The coastal terrestrial zone consists of 30-m grid cells attributed with data from the terrestrial region that has direct connection with the lakes. The coastal margin and nearshore zones consist of 30-m grid cells attributed with data describing the coastline conditions, coastal human disturbances, and moderately to highly variable physicochemical and biological characteristics. The offshore zone consists of 1.8-km grid cells attributed with data that are spatially less variable compared with the other aquatic zones. These spatial classification zones and their associated data are nested within lake sub-basins and political boundaries and allow the synthesis of information from grid cells to classification zones, within and among political boundaries, lake sub-basins, Great Lakes, or within the entire Great Lakes Basin. This spatially structured database could help the development of basin-wide management plans, prioritize locations for funding and specific management actions, track protection and restoration progress, and conduct research for science-based decision making.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2018

Sensitivity of Na+/K+-ATPase isoforms to acid and aluminum explains differential effects on Atlantic salmon osmoregulation in fresh water and seawater

Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) smolts are sensitive to acid rain and associated increases in dissolved inorganic aluminum (Al) resulting in decreased seawater tolerance at this critical life stage. Salmon have two major isoforms of the catalytic alpha subunit of Na + /K + -ATPase (NKA), with NKAα1a being the major freshwater (FW) isoform and NKAα1b the major seawater (SW) isoform. Here we evaluate physiological markers of SW preparedness and NKAα1a and NKAα1b isoforms after short-term exposure to acidified water and acidified water with added Al (acid–Al). Atlantic salmon smolts were exposed to low ion FW (Control), low ion acidic water (pH 5.2; acid), and low ion acidic water (pH 5.2) with moderate levels of added inorganic Al (35 μg·L −1 ; acid–Al) for 4 days. Acid exposure resulted in loss of salinity tolerance (higher plasma chloride (Cl) after SW exposure) and significantly decreased the levels of gill NKAα1b but not NKAα1a protein abundance. Acid–Al exposure resulted in loss of plasma Cl in FW and higher plasma Cl in SW and decreased NKAα1a and NKAα1b abundance. The loss of salinity tolerance in smolts can be explained by the differential sensitivity of NKA isoforms to acid.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2014

Abundance of host fish and frequency of glochidial parasitism in fish assessed in field and laboratory settings and frequency of juvenile mussels or glochidia recovered from hatchery-held fish, central and southeastern Texas, 2012-13

In 2012–13, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), completed the first phase of a two-phase study of mussel host-fish relations for five endemic mussel species in central and southeastern Texas that were State-listed as threatened on January 17, 2010: (1) Texas fatmucket ( Lampsilis bracteata ), (2) golden orb ( Quadrula aurea ), (3) smooth pimpleback ( Quadrula houstonensis ), (4) Texas pimpleback ( Quadrula petrina ), and (5) Texas fawnsfoot ( Truncilla macrodon ). On October 6, 2011, the USFWS announced the completion of a status review and determined that the five mussel species warranted listing under the Endangered Species Act; however, listing of these species at that time was precluded by higher priority listing actions, and currently (December 2014), they remained unlisted. Freshwater mussels are long-lived, sedentary organisms that spend their larval stage as obligate parasites on the gills or fins of fishes, and many of these larvae, which are referred to as “glochidia,” can survive only on a narrow range of host-fish species. Results from both study phases are likely to provide information useful for propagation of rare mussels, reintroduction of host fish, population and reproduction monitoring, habitat restoration and enhancement, and adaptive management. The abundance of host fish, frequency of parasitism in fish, and frequency of juvenile mussels or glochidia recovered from hatchery-held fish was assessed by collecting fish and mussels at 14 sites distributed among seven streams in central and southeastern Texas (juvenile mussels and glochidia were not differentiated in hatchery-held fish). All fish collected and assessed in this study were wild-caught. Qualitative surveys of the resident mussel communities were made, focusing on the five candidate species. A subsample (3 percent in 2012 and 19 percent in 2013) of the fish collected during aquatic biota surveys was submitted to the USFWS San Marcos National Fish Hatchery and Technology Center to collect juvenile mussels and glochidia recovered from the host fish, which were held for 28 days in holding tanks to allow time for most of the attached glochidia to release from the gills of the fish after transforming into juvenile mussels. All fish not sent to the hatchery were assessed for glochidia in the field or in the USGS Texas Water Science Center laboratory in Austin, Tex. Juvenile mussels and glochidia that were recovered from fish at the hatchery were submitted for use in the second phase of this study, the development of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) identification keys to determine mussel and host-fish relationships through DNA-based molecular identification (DNA typing of the juvenile mussels and glochidia). Reporting on the results of DNA-based molecular identification research is beyond the scope of this report. In 2012, the majority of the fish that were collected, in terms of total number and species types, belonged to the sunfish family Centrarchidae (centrarchids; 1,277 individuals and at least 10 species). Redbreast sunfish ( Lepomis auritus ) was the most common species collected in 2012 (603 individuals), but the largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) species was caught at all 10 sites. The largest number of species (19) was collected at the San Saba Menard site (San Saba River near Menard, Tex.) on May 22, 2012. In 2013, most of the fish that were collected, in terms of total number and species types, were centrarchids (763 individuals) and cyprinids (10 species), respectively. Blacktail shiner ( Cyprinella venusta ) was the most common species collected in 2013 (287 individuals), but bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ) was the only species that was caught at all nine sites. The largest number of individuals (382) and species (19) was collected from the Colorado Columbus site (Colorado River near Columbus, Tex.) on June 11, 2013. A minimum of two fish (any species) parasitized with glochidia was collected from each of the 10 sites sampled during 2012. The highest percentage of parasitized fish (19.1 percent) was measured at the Guadalupe Victoria site (Guadalupe River near Victoria, Tex.). The catfish family Ictaluridae (ictalurids) exhibited the highest proportion of parasitized fish (12.1 percent). Of the nine sites sampled in 2013, the Pedernales Fredericksburg site (Pedernales River near Fredericksburg, Tex.) had the highest proportion of parasitized fish at 22.7 percent. Ictalurids again exhibited the highest frequency of parasitism (26.5 percent). Of the fish that were not sent to the hatchery but assessed for glochidia in the field or in the laboratory in 2012, at least 13 species were parasitized, and longear sunfish ( Lepomis megalotis ) was the species with the highest percentage of parasitized individuals (17.3 percent). Of the fish that were not sent to the hatchery but assessed for glochidia in the field or in the laboratory in 2013, only eight species were parasitized, and flathead catfish ( Pylodictis olivaris ) was the species with the highest percentage of parasitized individuals (42.9 percent). With the exception of the San Antonio Charco site, fish were submitted to the hatchery from all sampling sites in 2013. During the first sampling period in 2013 (April 1–5), slightly more than half (16 out of 29) of the fish species (on a per site basis) that were submitted to the hatchery released juvenile mussels and glochidia. Compared to the other sampling periods in 2013, substantially fewer glochidia per fish were present on fish submitted to the hatchery during the second sampling period in 2013 (April 29–May 2). Although only two sites were sampled during the third sampling period in 2013 (June 10–11), more juvenile mussels and glochidia were recovered at the hatchery during this sampling period (107) than were recovered during the first two sampling periods in 2013 combined (102). An average of 17 juvenile mussels or glochidia was recovered per largemouth bass submitted to the hatchery from the Guadalupe Victoria site during the third sampling period. A total of 19 fish species collected at nine sites was submitted to the hatchery in 2013, and 14 of these species had juvenile mussels or glochidia that were recovered at the hatchery. The three most productive species, in terms of the average number of juvenile mussels or glochidia recovered, were longear sunfish, spotted bass, and largemouth bass, each of which averaged more than two juvenile mussels or glochidia recovered per individual.

Texas↗

USGS2019

Modeling framework to estimate spawning and hatching locations of pelagically-spawned eggs

Identifying spawning and hatching locations is vital to controlling invasive fish and conserving imperiled fish, which can be difficult for pelagically-spawning species with semi-buoyant eggs. In freshwater systems, this reproductive strategy is common among cyprinid species, such as Chinese carp species currently threatening the Great Lakes. Following the confirmation that one of these species, Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella), was spawning in a Great Lakes tributary, we developed a modeling framework to combine field data with hydraulic models to calculate the most probable spawning and hatching locations for collected eggs. Our results indicate that the estimated spawning location encompassed habitat consistent with spawning sites in Grass Carp’s native range. Additionally, all eggs were identified to have hatched in the river, increasing the likelihood of successful recruitment. This modeling framework can be used to estimate spawning and hatching locations for Chinese carp species, as well as all pelagic, riverine spawners. Spawning and hatching locations provide key information to researchers about the reproductive requirements of species and to agencies about how best to manage populations for control or restoration.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2024

Applying portfolio theory to benefit endangered amphibians in coastal wetlands threatened by climate change, high uncertainty, and significant investment risk

The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui ( Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi ), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico’s coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function – benefit maximization – emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function – a risk-benefit tradeoff framework – include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2007

Importance of physical and hydraulic characteristics to unionid mussels: A retrospective analysis in a reach of large river

Interest in understanding physical and hydraulic factors that might drive distribution and abundance of freshwater mussels has been increasing due to their decline throughout North America. We assessed whether the spatial distribution of unionid mussels could be predicted from physical and hydraulic variables in a reach of the Upper Mississippi River. Classification and regression tree (CART) models were constructed using mussel data compiled from various sources and explanatory variables derived from GIS coverages. Prediction success of CART models for presence-absence of mussels ranged from 71 to 76% across three gears (brail, sled-dredge, and dive-quadrat) and 51% of the deviance in abundance. Models were largely driven by shear stress and substrate stability variables, but interactions with simple physical variables, especially slope, were also important. Geospatial models, which were based on tree model results, predicted few mussels in poorly connected backwater areas (e.g., floodplain lakes) and the navigation channel, whereas main channel border areas with high geomorphic complexity (e.g., river bends, islands, side channel entrances) and small side channels were typically favorable to mussels. Moreover, bootstrap aggregation of discharge-specific regression tree models of dive-quadrat data indicated that variables measured at low discharge were about 25% more predictive (PMSE = 14.8) than variables measured at median discharge (PMSE = 20.4) with high discharge (PMSE = 17.1) variables intermediate. This result suggests that episodic events such as droughts and floods were important in structuring mussel distributions. Although the substantial mussel and ancillary data in our study reach is unusual, our approach to develop exploratory statistical and geospatial models should be useful even when data are more limited. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Hydrobiologia↗

USGS2004

Economic and health risk trade-offs of swim closures at a Lake Michigan beach

This paper presents a framework for analyzing the economic, health, and recreation implications of swim closures related to high fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) levels. The framework utilizes benefit transfer policy analysis to provide a practical procedure for estimating the effectiveness of recreational water quality policies. Evaluation criteria include the rates of intended and unintended management outcomes, whether the chosen protocols generate closures with positive net economic benefits to swimmers, and the number of predicted illnesses the policy is able to prevent. We demonstrate the framework through a case study of a Lake Michigan freshwater beach using existing water quality and visitor data from 1998 to 2001. We find that a typical closure causes a net economic loss among would-be swimmers totaling $1274-37 030/ day, depending on the value assumptions used. Unnecessary closures, caused by high indicator variability and a 24-h time delay between when samples are taken and the management decision can be made, occurred on 14 (12%) out of 118 monitored summer days. Days with high FIB levels when the swim area is open are also common but do relatively little economic harm in comparison. Also, even if the closure policy could be implemented daily and perfectly without error, only about 42% of predicted illnesses would be avoided. These conclusions were sensitive to the relative values and risk preferences that swimmers have for recreation access and avoiding health effects, suggesting a need for further study of the impacts of recreational water quality policies on individuals.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2018

Ecosystem classification and mapping of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Owing to the enormity and complexity of the Laurentian Great Lakes, an ecosystem classification is needed to better understand, protect, and manage this largest freshwater ecosystem in the world. Using a combination of statistical analyses, published knowledge, and expert opinion, we identified key driving variables and their ecologically relevant thresholds and delineated and mapped aquatic systems for the entire Great Lakes. We identified and mapped 77 aquatic ecological units (AEUs) that depict unique combinations of depth, thermal regime, hydraulic, and landscape classifiers. Those 77 AEU types were distributed across 1997 polygons (patches) ranging from 1 to >48 000 km 2 in area and were most diverse in the nearshore (35 types), followed by the coastal margin (26), and then the offshore (16). Our classification and mapping of ecological units captures gradients that characterize types of aquatic systems in the Great Lakes and provides a geospatial accounting framework for resource inventory, status and trend assessment; research for ecosystem questions; and management and policy-making.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗