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Some relations between streamflow characteristics and the environment in the Delaware River region

Streamflow characteristics are determined by a large number of factors of the meteorological and terrestrial environments. Because of lack of quantitative data to describe some of the factors and complex interrelations among them, complete analysis of the relations between streamflow and the various environmental factors is impossible. However, certain simplifying assumptions and generalizations made possible a partial analysis for the Delaware River region. For relations involving average runoff or low-flow parameters, average annual precipitation was assumed to be the principal meteorological factor, and geology (a complex of many factors) was assumed to be the principal terrestrial influence, except for that of basin size which was largely eliminated by expression of discharge in terms of unit area. As a first approximation, physiographic units were used as a basis for classifying the geology. Relations between flow parameters and precipitation are fairly well defined for some physiographic units, but not for those in which the geology varies markedly or the areal variation in average precipitation is very small. These relations provide a basis for adjusting the flow parameters to reduce or eliminate the effects of areal variations in precipitation and increase their significance in studies of the effects of terrestrial characteristics. An investigation of the residual effect of basin size (the effect remaining when discharge is expressed in terms of unit area) on relations between flow parameters and average precipitation indicates that such effect is negligible, except for very large differences in area. Parameters that are derived from base-flow recession curves and are related to a common discharge per unit area have inherent advantages as indicators of effects of terrestrial characteristics of basins, because the.y are independent of areal variations in average annual precipitation. Winter base-flow parameters are also practically independent of the effects of evapotranspiration from ground water. However, in many parts of the region these advantages are reduced or nullified by the difficulties of defining base-flow recession curves, particularly winter curves, with sufficient accuracy. In the absence of suitable base-flow recession data and a suitable basis for adjusting parameters, the ratio of the discharge equaled or exceeded 90 percent of the time to the average discharge (Qtt/Qa), or a similar duration parameter, probably is the best indicator of the influence of terrestrial characteristics, although the ratio may vary somewhat with average precipitation. In a part of the region where geologic differences are large and areal variations in average precipitation are small, values of Qm/Qa for each major geologic unit were determined from streamflow records. From these values and the percentage of area represented by each unit, a ratio for each gaging station was computed. Comparison of these computed results with the observed results indicates that nearly all of the variation in the ratio is associated with variation in geology. The investigation indicates that the original assumptions are correct; average precipitation is the principal meteorological influence and geology is the principal terrestrial influence. Together these two factors account for a very large proportion of the variation in average runoff and low-flow characteristics.

Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania

Maps showing petroleum exploration intensity and production in major Cambrian to Ordovician reservoir rocks in the Anadarko Basin

The Anadarko basin is a large, deep, two-stage Paleozoic basin (Feinstein, 1981) that is petroleum rich and generally well explored. The Anadarko basin province, a geogrphic area used here mostly for the convenience of mapping and data management, is defined by political boundaries that include the Anadarko basin proper. The boundaries of the province are identical to those used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in the 1995 National Assessment of United Stated Oil and Gas Resources. The data in this report, also identical to those used in the national assessment, are from several computerized data bases including Nehring Research Group (NRG) Associates Inc., Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the United States (1992); Petroleum Information (PI), Inc., Well History Control System (1991); and Petroleum Information (PI), Inc., Petro-ROM: Production data on CD-ROM (1993). Although generated mostly in response to the national assessment, the data presented here arc grouped differently and arc displayed and described in greater detail. In addition, the stratigraphic sequences discussed may not necessarily correlate with the "plays" of the 1995 national assessment. This report uses computer-generated maps to show drilling intensity, producing wells, major fields, and other geologic information relevant to petroleum exploration and production in the lower Paleozoic part of the Anadarko basin province as defined for the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 national petroleum assessment. Hydrocarbon accumulations must meet a minimum standard of 1 million barrels of oil (MMBO) or 6 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG) estimated ultimate recovery to be included in this report as a major field or revoir. Mapped strata in this report include the Upper Cambrian to Lower Ordovician Arbuckle and Low Ordovician Ellenburger Groups, the Middle Ordovician Simpson Group, and the Middle to Upper Ordovician Viola Group.

Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas

Comparison of computed flow through manually operated water control structures in Florida using theoretical versus calibrated coefficients

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) calculated discharge at 13 water control structures in Florida using theoretical equations and uncalibrated coefficients gathered from previous studies and typical textbook values for selected flow regimes and structure types. These discharges were compared to the real-time discharges calculated and published by the USGS from October 1, 2007, to September 30, 2019, using traditional methods and coefficients verified by direct discharge measurements. The theoretical and USGS-calculated daily mean discharges were compared at each structure for different flow regimes covering the entire range of discharges that occurred over the study period except those less than 10 cubic feet per second to avoid large percentage errors for small actual differences in discharge. The discharges were also not compared if (1) any alterations were made to the USGS discharge to account for factors such as debris or construction, (2) any values were missing throughout the day, (3) the flow regime changed during the day, or (4) the USGS discharge was estimated. The structures compared include a mixture of vertical lift and radial gates with free and submerged conditions for orifice and weir flow. The study totals showed that the average absolute difference for all structures was 18.7 percent. Average percent differences ranged from −26.5 to 28.6 percent, and 4 of the 13 structures had average differences within 10 percent.

Florida

Computers at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory

The Worldwide Standardized Seismograph Network (WWSSN) is managed by the U.S Geological Survey in Albuquerque, N. Mex. It consists of a global network of seismographs housed in seismic observatories throughout the world. An important recent addition to this network are the Seismic Research Observatories (SRO) which combine a borehole seismometer with a modern digital data recording system.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)

Altitude, depth, and thickness of the Galena-Platteville Bedrock Unit in the subcrop area of Illinois and Wisconsin

The Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is a carbonate deposit of Ordovician age, composed of the Galena and Platteville Groups in Illinois and the Sinnippee Group in Wisconsin. It is the uppermost bedrock unit (subcrop) in most of northern Illinois and southern and eastern Wisconsin. The subcrop area is shaded in figure 1 of sheet 1 (Batten and others, 1997). The unit is predominately dolomite, with limestone in some areas, and has a weathered surface. Across the subcrop area, the hydrologic characteristics of the bedrock unit vary substantially. The bedrock unit may be either a confining unit or an aquifer. In areas where the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is an aquifer, the unit is a dependable source of water for many private wells and some municipal-water-supply systems. Ground water in the Galena-Platteville bedrock aquifer is susceptible to contamination because the bedrock unit is near land surface in much of the study area, and the fractures in the unit allow rapid movement of water providing limited capacity to attenuate contaminants. The subcrop (study) area covers approximately 7,850 square miles in northern Illinois and Wisconsin. In the study area, volatile organic compounds and other contaminants have been detected in the aquifer at various sites (Mills, 1993; Kay and others, 1994). Many sources of contaminants, including landfills and industrial facilities, are known or suspected. In order to determine the possible effects of contamination on the ground-water supply, an understanding of the regional hydrogeologic framework of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit is needed. Published and unpublished map and point data describing the geologic properties of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit are available from many sources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), has selected and compiled a large portion of the available data to create computer data bases and maps. The objective of this effort is to compile and publish these data in a series of reports (U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Reports (WRIR) 974054-A, WRIR 97-4054-B, WRIR 97-4054-C). This is the third in that series of reports. The report describes the altitude, thickness, and depth from land surface of the subcrop area of the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit. The report series will enable investigators involved in site-specific studies within the subcrop area to understand the regional geologic framework of the unit and to find additional reference sources. This report consists of four sheets that show the altitude (sheet 1), depth from land surface (sheet 2), total thickness (sheet 3), and location of altitude data (sheet 4) of the lithologic units that constitute the Galena-Platteville bedrock unit within the subcrop area. The sheets also show major known geologic features within the Galena-Platteville study area in Illinois and Wisconsin. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to generate data layers (coverages) from point data and from published and unpublished contour maps at various scales and detail. Standard GIS procedures were used to change the coverages into the maps shown on the sheets presented in this report. A list of references for the data used to prepare the maps is provided.

Illinois, Wisconsin

Gravity prospecting for chromite deposits in Camaguey Province, Cuba

Detailed gravity surveys were made in Camaguey Province, Cuba, as part of a systematic exploration program conducted by the U. S. Geological Survey on behalf of the General Services Administration to locate deposits of refractory-grade chromite. During the period August 4, 1954, to April 5, 1956, a total of 41,921 gravity stations were established in nine areas embracing about 11.8 square miles in the Camaguey chromite district. The results of the surveys were used in connection with information obtained in geologic investigations to guide exploratory drilling.Gravimeters with low scale constants were used in making measurements sufficiently accurate to delimit anomalies as small as 0.5 gravity unit. The measurements were made over 20 X 40 and 30 X 60 meter grids and at stations 20 and 30 meters apart, respectively, along intermediate traverses in anomalous areas. Gravity differences were determined by single observations at individual stations, observing base stations hourly, and re-observing a few stations to check drift and accuracy of measurement. About 11 percent of the stations established had to be re-run because of errors in closure, microseisms, and instrument trouble.A large number of anomalies were found and evaluated according to geology, areal extent, and gravity relief. Depths to disturbing hypothetical bodies were computed to guide drilling. Test drilling of 106 positive anomalies revealed that ten features overlie deposits of chromite and 89 occur over bodies of other dense materials. The other seven anomalies were not explained by materials found in drilling. Core drilling on five of the chromite deposits revealed about 236,000 tons of chromite. An additional estimated 12,000 tons are contained in three deposits which were not blocked out. No estimate was made of the tonnage in two small deposits.

Camaguey

Decision support system development at the Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center

A Decision Support System (DSS) can be defined in many ways. The working definition used by the U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) is, “A spatially based computer application or data that assists a researcher or manager in making decisions.” This is quite a broad definition—and it needs to be, because the possibilities for types of DSSs are limited only by the user group and the developer’s imagination. There is no one DSS; the types of DSSs are as diverse as the problems they help solve. This diversity requires that DSSs be built in a variety of ways, using the most appropriate methods and tools for the individual application. The skills of potential DSS users vary widely as well, further necessitating multiple approaches to DSS development. Some small, highly trained user groups may want a powerful modeling tool with extensive functionality at the expense of ease of use. Other user groups less familiar with geographic information system (GIS) and spatial data may want an easy-to-use application for a nontechnical audience. UMESC has been developing DSSs for almost 20 years. Our DSS developers offer our partners a wide variety of technical skills and development options, ranging from the most simple Web page or small application to complex modeling application development.

Upper Midwest

Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update

Information on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion on coastal populations and infrastructure and can support informed coastal management decisions. In this report, we summarize the changes in the historical positions of the shoreline of the Massachusetts coast for the 165 years from 1844 through 2009. The study area includes the Massachusetts coastal region from Salisbury to Westport, including Cape Cod, as well as Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and the Elizabeth Islands. New statewide shoreline data were developed for approximately 1,804 kilometers (1,121 miles) of shoreline using color aerial orthoimagery from 2008 and 2009 and topographic lidar from 2007. The shoreline data were integrated with existing historical shoreline data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) to compute long- (about 150 years) and short-term (about 30 years) rates of shoreline change. A linear regression method was used to calculate long- and short-term rates of shoreline change at 26,510 transects along the Massachusetts coast. In locations where shoreline data were insufficient to use the linear regression method, short-term rates were calculated using an end-point method. Long-term rates of shoreline change are calculated with (LTw) and without (LTwo) shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 to examine the effect of removing these data on measured rates of change. Regionally averaged rates are used to assess the general characteristics of the two-rate computations, and we find that (1) the rates of change for both LTw and LTwo are essentially the same; (2) including more data slightly reduces the uncertainty of the rate, which is expected as the number of shorelines increases; and (3) the data for the shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 are not outliers with respect to the long-term trend. These findings are true for regional averages, but may not hold at specific transects.

Massachusetts

smwrGraphs—An R package for graphing hydrologic data, version 1.1.2

This report describes an R package called smwrGraphs , which consists of a collection of graphing functions for hydrologic data within R, a programming language and software environment for statistical computing. The functions in the package have been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to create high-quality graphs for publication or presentation of hydrologic data that meet U.S. Geological Survey graphics guidelines.

Open-File Report

User guide for the Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE—version 1.0) computer program

This report is a user guide for the Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE) computer program (version 1.0). The CT SSWUE was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection to provide a planning-level decision-support tool designed to help decision makers estimate daily mean streamflows and selected streamflow statistics to assess sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut. The CT SSWUE provides estimates of unaltered streamflow (which is assumed to occur in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development), net streamflow alterations caused by water use, water-use-adjusted streamflow, streamflow yields (estimated unaltered streamflow minus user-defined flow targets), and estimates of the accuracy and uncertainty of estimated unaltered streamflow. The CT SSWUE uses basin characteristics and water-use volumes (water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows) obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey online StreamStats application to estimate the unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflows. The CT SSWUE is a database application with a graphical user interface developed by using Visual Basic for Applications with the 32-bit version of Microsoft Access. The graphical user interface is designed to include full documentation for users: an introductory instruction form and onscreen help within each interactive form, including explanation buttons, context-sensitive help buttons, and tool-tip and status-bar messages.

Open-File Report

User guide for the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE—version 2.0) computer program

This report is a user guide for the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) computer program (version 2.0). The MA SYE was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection to provide a planning-level decision-support tool designed to help decision makers estimate daily mean streamflows and selected streamflow statistics to assess sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Massachusetts. The MA SYE provides estimates of unaltered streamflow (which is assumed to occur in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development), net streamflow alterations caused by water use, water-use-adjusted streamflow, streamflow yields (estimated unaltered streamflow minus user-defined flow targets), and estimates of the accuracy and uncertainty of estimated unaltered streamflow. The MA SYE uses basin characteristics and water-use volumes (water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows) obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey online StreamStats application to estimate the unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflows. The MA SYE is a database application with a graphical user interface developed by using Visual Basic for Applications with the 32-bit version of Microsoft Access. The graphical user interface is designed include full documentation for users: an introductory instruction form and onscreen help within each interactive form, including explanation buttons, context-sensitive help buttons, and tool-tip and status-bar messages.

Massachusetts

System requirements specification for the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Information System II

The U.S. Geological Survey's Water Resources Division is designing and developing a new computer software system for processing and storing hydrologic data. This system, the National Water Information System (NWIS-II) will replace the current water-data and information systems: the National Water Data Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE), the National Water Data Exchange (NAWDEX), and the National Water-Use Information System, as well as the current National Water Information System (NWIS-I). The new system will be utilized across the Nation on the Distributed Information System (DIS-II), a network of 32-bit microcomputers on a wide-area network of desktop workstations and related hardware. The purpose of the NWIS-II System Requirements Specification is to integrate requirements described by eight User Groups representing the disciplines for Surface Water, Ground Water, Water Quality, Water Sediment, Water Use, Biology, Geographic Information, and National Water Data Exchange. The requirements specified in this document will serve as the framework for subsequent design and development activities throughout the life cycle of NWIS-II to ensure that the development products reflect the needs of the users. Specification details and associated data-base plans are contained in the description of the integrated functional requirements, the logical data model and the data dictionary, the plan for transferring data from the existing system to NWIS-II, and the descriptions of performance requirements and design constraints. The NWIS-II will be consistent across hydrologic disciplines and the other major Division software systems. The color-graphics desktop environment of NWIS-II will utilize multi-window and multi-tasking capabilities with multilevel of help for the users. Data will be distributed among nodes and be automatically accessible during input, editing, verification and analysis of data. Hydrologic data will be cataloged independent of the Environmental Protection Agency's storage and retrieval (STORET) codes. Character, digital, and graphical data will be entered into NWIS-II from digital and analog recorders, external files, or keyboard through standard and user-defined input forms. Data will be verified manually or automatically during input, retrieval, and editing of data. Numerous reference lists will be maintained so that entry of codes on forms will not be required. User-defined series of computer actions for standard programs will be supported for processing basic data and other frequently repeated processes. Data will be verified and exchanged through links to other DIS-II software, including a Geographic Information System, and selected external software. Quality assurance of data will include aging of data through change on status type and tracking access violations. Output of data will be to a variety of media in standard and user-defined formats. The data base will be preserved by operations such as backup, recovery, audit trails, archiving, and data histories. In addition, an index of water data from USGS and other agencies will be maintained.

Open-File Report

Tropical storm Irene flood of August 2011 in northwestern Massachusetts

A Presidential disaster was declared in northwestern Massachusetts, following flooding from tropical storm Irene on August 28, 2011. During the storm, 3 to 10 inches of rain fell on soils that were susceptible to flash flooding because of wet antecedent conditions. The gage height at one U.S. Geological Survey streamgage rose nearly 20 feet in less than 4 hours because of the combination of saturated soils and intense rainfall. On August 28, 2011, in the Deerfield and Hoosic River Basins in northwestern Massachusetts, new peaks of record were set at six of eight U.S. Geological Survey long-term streamgages with 46 to 100 years of record. Additionally, high-water marks were surveyed and indirect measurements of peak discharge were calculated at two discontinued streamgages in the Deerfield and Hoosic River Basins with 24 and 61 years of record, respectively. This data resulted in new historic peaks of record at the two discontinued streamgages from tropical storm Irene. Peak flows that resulted from tropical storm Irene (August 28, 2011) were determined at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgages by using stage-discharge rating curves and indirect computation methods. For six streamgages, indirect computation methods were used to compute the peak flows. Peak flows from tropical storm Irene had annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) that ranged from 5.4 percent to less than 0.2 percent at 10 streamgages in northwestern Massachusetts. Discharges calculated for select AEPs as a part of this study were compared with discharges published for the same AEPs in the effective Federal Emergency Management Agency flood insurance studies (FISs) for communities in the study area. Discharges estimated for the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs at two streamgages on the main stem of the Deerfield River ranged from about 3 percent lower to 14 percent higher than discharges in the FISs. AEP discharges calculated for two streamgages on tributaries to the Deerfield River were 27 to 89 percent higher than the FISs. For the four streamgages in the Hoosic River Basin, the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEP discharges calculated ranged from about 33 percent lower to 5 percent higher than the FISs. The simulated 1-percent AEP discharge water-surface elevations (nonregulatory) from recent (2015–16) hydraulic models for river reaches in the study area, which include the Deerfield, Green, and North Rivers in the Deerfield River Basin and the Hoosic River in the Hoosic River Basin, were compared with water-surface profiles in the FISs. The water-surface elevation comparisons were generally done downstream and upstream from bridges, dams, and major tributaries. The simulated 1-percent AEP discharge water-surface elevations of the recent hydraulic studies averaged 2.2, 2.3, 0.3, and 0.7 ft higher than water-surface elevations in the FISs for the Deerfield, Green, North, and Hoosic Rivers, respectively. The differences in water-surface elevations between the recent (2015–16) hydraulic studies and the FISs likely are because of (1) improved land elevation data from light detection and ranging (lidar) data collected in 2012, (2) detailed surveying of hydraulic structures and cross sections throughout the river reaches in 2012–13 (reflecting structure and cross section changes during the last 30–35 years), (3) updated hydrology analyses (30–35 water years of additional peak flow data at streamgages), and (4) high-water marks from the 2011 tropical storm Irene flood being used for model calibration.

Massachusetts

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in North Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics for ungaged streams in north Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, diversions, or urbanization. Selected low-flow frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 56 streamgage locations within north Georgia and 75 miles beyond the State’s borders in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina were combined to form the final dataset used in the regional regression analysis. Because some of the streamgages in the study recorded zero flow, the final regression equations were developed using weighted left-censored regression analysis to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. The set of equations includes the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflow with the 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as 1Q10 and 7Q10), monthly 7Q10, and mean annual flow. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and relief ratio for the selected low-flow frequency statistics and drainage area and mean annual precipitation for mean annual flow. The average standard error of estimate was 13.7 percent for the mean annual flow regression equation and ranged from 26.1 to 91.6 percent for the selected low-flow frequency equations. The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, can be used to provide estimates of the natural flows for selected ungaged stream locations in the area of Georgia north of the Fall Line. The regression equations are not to be used to estimate flows for streams that have been altered by the effects of major dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, or wastewater discharges. The regression equations should be used only for ungaged sites with drainage areas between 1.67 and 576 square miles, mean annual precipitation between 47.6 and 81.6 inches, and relief ratios between 0.146 and 0.607; these are the ranges of the explanatory variables used to develop the equations. An attempt was made to develop regional regression equations for the area of Georgia south of the Fall Line by using the same approach used during this study for north Georgia; however, the equations resulted with high average standard errors of estimates and poorly predicted flows below 0.5 cubic foot per second, which may be attributed to the karst topography common in that area. The final regression equations developed from this study are planned to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. The StreamStats program provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for U.S. Geological Survey streamgage locations and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats also can compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in Georgia.

Georgia

Factors affecting nutrient trends in major rivers of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Trends in nutrient loads and flow-adjusted concentrations in the major rivers entering Chesapeake Bay were computed on the basis of water-quality data collected between 1985 and 1998 at 29 monitoring stations in the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, York, Patuxent, and Choptank River Basins. Two computer models-the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) and the U.S. Geological Survey's 'Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes' (SPARROW) Model-were used to help explain the major factors affecting the trends. Results from WSM simulations provided information on temporal changes in contributions from major nutrient sources, and results from SPARROW model simulations provided spatial detail on the distribution of nutrient yields in these basins. Additional data on nutrient sources, basin characteristics, implementation of management practices, and ground-water inputs to surface water were analyzed to help explain the trends. The major factors affecting the trends were changes in nutrient sources and natural variations in streamflow. The dominant source of nitrogen and phosphorus from 1985 to 1998 in six of the seven tributary basins to Chesapeake Bay was determined to be agriculture. Because of the predominance of agricultural inputs, changes in agricultural nutrient sources such as manure and fertilizer, combined with decreases in agricultural acreage and implementation of best management practices (BMPs), had the greatest impact on the trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations. Urban acreage and population, however, were noted to be increasing throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and as a result, delivered loads of nutrients from urban areas increased during the study period. Overall, agricultural nutrient management, in combination with load decreases from point sources due to facility upgrades and the phosphate detergent ban, led to downward trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations atmany of the monitoring stations in the watershed. The loads of nutrients, however, were not reduced significantly at most of the monitoring stations. This is due primarily to higher streamflow in the latter years of the monitoring period, which led to higher loading in those years. Results of this study indicate a need for more detailed information on BMP effectiveness under a full range of hydrologic conditions and in different areas of the watershed; an internally consistent fertilizer data set; greater consideration of the effects of watershed processes on nutrient transport; a refinement of current modeling efforts; and an expansion of the non-tidal monitoring network in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin

Magnitude conversion and earthquake recurrence rate models for the central and eastern United States

Development of Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) models, which is an essential part of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses (PSHA), can help forecast the temporal and spatial distribution of future damaging earthquakes (𝑀 w ≥ 5) in seismically active regions. Because it is impossible to associate all earthquakes with known faults, seismic source models for PSHA often include sources of diffuse seismicity in which future earthquake scenarios are not localized on mapped faults. These sources of diffuse seismicity are referred to as area source zones, distributed seismicity zones, or just source zones. During the early years of PSHA studies, it was assumed that earthquakes in seismotectonic zones have (1) uniform spatial distribution, (2) Poisson temporal distribution, and (3) exponential magnitude distribution (NRC, 2012). In seismically active regions (e.g., the Western United States), where active faults are readily identified, models of the spatial distribution of earthquakes include both the fault source geometries and the distributed seismicity (background) source zones. Source characterization of active faults is complemented by paleoseismic studies with estimates of earthquake magnitudes, dates of occurrences, and slip rates, which provide important information for PSHA studies. In the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) very few Quaternary-active faults have the requisite information for use in PSHA (i.e., fault geometry and dimensions, event rates or slip rates, etc.), and we lack knowledge about the causative faults for most observed seismicity in the region. As a result, area source zones are frequently used in site-specific PSHA in the CEUS to represent diffuse seismicity that cannot be associated with faults. However, there are examples of active fault sources in the CEUS, such as the Meers fault, the Cheraw fault, and New Madrid region, where individual faults can be characterized. The source characterization models for background seismicity are based, to a large extent, on an assumption that spatial distribution of historical and recorded seismicity will not change substantially for time periods of interest for PSHA (approximately the next 50-100 years for engineered structures). Furthermore, studies such as those by Kafka (2007, 2009) found a correlation between the locations of small- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes and the locations of large-magnitude earthquakes, indicating that we can, with some level of confidence, use the spatial pattern of smaller earthquakes to forecast the future pattern of damaging earthquakes. Within background seismicity zones, the earthquake rate forecast is developed using spatial smoothing of the small to moderate magnitude events in earthquake catalogs. Different methodologies are used for this purpose and can predict varying distributions of seismicity rates. This in turn affects the results of a seismic hazard analysis. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) use different methods for computing spatially smoothed seismicity rates in the CEUS; the USGS uses kernel-based spatial smoothing methods in developing the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and the method adopted in the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization (CEUS-SSC) project is used when evaluating seismic hazard for nuclear power plant siting. These methods are described and the impact on seismic hazard are evaluated in this Research Information Letter (RIL). Another important input to estimating the rate of distributed seismicity is event magnitudes listed in earthquake catalogs. A substantial source of uncertainty in catalogs is the magnitude assigned to a given earthquake. Numerous different magnitude types exist, with each magnitude type computed in a different way. Therefore, for the sake of consistency, both the CEUS-SSC and the USGS NSHM have attempted to assemble a complete catalog with a uniform magnitude determination. To this end, moment magnitude, 𝑀 w , which is a physics-based measurement, has been adopted as the standard. However, 𝑀 w was not computed routinely until the past few decades. To address this issue, the CEUS-SSC conducted extensive analyses to determine conversion equations from which to take a routinely computed network (e.g., 𝑀 L or 𝑚 bLg ) and convert it into 𝑀 w . Another issue with using 𝑀 w is that it becomes increasingly difficult to compute for earthquakes with 𝑀 less than ~4. This study investigates the effects of moment magnitude estimation and spatial smoothing methods on estimation of the earthquake rate forecast and on seismic hazard. We investigate the validity of the magnitude conversion equations and their associated uncertainties by applying them to a case study for induced earthquakes in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and summarize the use of the decay of the seismic coda to estimate 𝑀 w for small earthquakes (𝑀 w < 4. Furthermore, the study documents a comparison and assessment of background seismicity smoothing methods implemented by the USGS for the NSHM and used by the CEUS-SSC for siting nuclear facilities based on probabilistic seismic hazard estimates from multiple source zones in the CEUS and for multiple sites.

central and eastern United States

Preconditioned Conjugate-Gradient 2 (PCG2), a computer program for solving ground-water flow equations

This report documents PCG2: a numerical code to be used with the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model. PCG2 uses the preconditioned conjugate-gradient method to solve the equations produced by the model for hydraulic head. Linear or nonlinear flow conditions may be simulated. PCG2 includes two reconditioning options: modified incomplete Cholesky preconditioning, which is efficient on scalar computers; and polynomial preconditioning, which requires less computer storage and, with modifications that depend on the computer used, is most efficient on vector computers. Convergence of the solver is determined using both head-change and residual criteria. Nonlinear problems are solved using Picard iterations. This documentation provides a description of the preconditioned conjugate gradient method and the two preconditioners, detailed instructions for linking PCG2 to the modular model, sample data inputs, a brief description of PCG2, and a FORTRAN listing.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Techniques and strategies for data integration in mineral resource assessment

The Geologic and the National Mapping divisions of the U.S. Geological Survey have been involved formally in cooperative research and development of computer-based geographic information systems (GISs) applied to mineral-resource assessment objectives since 1982. Experience in the Conterminous United States Mineral Assessment Program (CUSMAP) projects including the Rolla, Missouri; Dillon, Montana; Butte, Montana; and Tonopah, Nevada 1?? ?? 2?? quadrangles, has resulted in the definition of processing requirements for geographically and mineral-resource data that are common to these studies. The diverse formats of data sets collected and compiled for regional mineral-resource assessments necessitate capabilities for digitally encoding and entering data into appropriate tabular, vector, and raster subsystems of the GIS. Although many of the required data sets are either available or can be provided in a digital format suitable for direct entry, their utility is largely dependent on the original intent and consequent preprocessing of the data. In this respect, special care must be taken to ensure the digital data type, encoding, and format will meet assessment objectives. Data processing within the GIS is directed primarily toward the development and application of models that can be used to describe spatially geological, geophysical, and geochemical environments either known or inferred to be associated with specific types of mineral deposits. Consequently, capabilities to analyze spatially, aggregate, and display relations between data sets are principal processing requirements. To facilitate the development of these models within the GIS, interfaces must be developed among vector-, raster-, and tabular-based processing subsystems to reformat resident data sets for comparative analyses and multivariate display of relations.

Conference Paper