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USGS2017

Uncertainty, variability, and earthquake physics in ground‐motion prediction equations

Residuals between ground‐motion data and ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) can be decomposed into terms representing earthquake source, path, and site effects. These terms can be cast in terms of repeatable (epistemic) residuals and the random (aleatory) components. Identifying the repeatable residuals leads to a GMPE with reduced uncertainty for a specific source, site, or path location, which in turn can yield a lower hazard level at small probabilities of exceedance. We illustrate a schematic framework for this residual partitioning with a dataset from the ANZA network, which straddles the central San Jacinto fault in southern California. The dataset consists of more than 3200 1.15≤ M ≤3 earthquakes and their peak ground accelerations (PGAs), recorded at close distances ( R ≤20 km). We construct a small‐magnitude GMPE for these PGA data, incorporating V S 30 site conditions and geometrical spreading. Identification and removal of the repeatable source, path, and site terms yield an overall reduction in the standard deviation from 0.97 (in ln units) to 0.44, for a nonergodic assumption, that is, for a single‐source location, single site, and single path. We give examples of relationships between independent seismological observables and the repeatable terms. We find a correlation between location‐based source terms and stress drops in the San Jacinto fault zone region; an explanation of the site term as a function of kappa, the near‐site attenuation parameter; and a suggestion that the path component can be related directly to elastic structure. These correlations allow the repeatable source location, site, and path terms to be determined a priori using independent geophysical relationships. Those terms could be incorporated into location‐specific GMPEs for more accurate and precise ground‐motion prediction.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Toppling analysis of the Echo Cliffs precariously balanced rock

Toppling analysis of a precariously balanced rock (PBR) can provide insight into the nature of ground motion that has not occurred at that location in the past and, by extension, can constrain peak ground motions for use in engineering design. Earlier approaches have targeted 2D models of the rock or modeled the rock–pedestal contact using spring‐damper assemblies that require recalibration for each rock. Here, a method to model PBRs in 3D is presented through a case study of the Echo Cliffs PBR. The 3D model is created from a point cloud of the rock, the pedestal, and their interface, obtained using terrestrial laser scanning. The dynamic response of the model under earthquake excitation is simulated using a rigid‐body dynamics algorithm. The veracity of this approach is demonstrated through comparisons against data from shake‐table experiments. Fragility maps for toppling probability of the Echo Cliffs PBR as a function of various ground‐motion parameters, rock–pedestal interface friction coefficient, and excitation direction are presented. These fragility maps indicate that the toppling probability of this rock is low (less than 0.2) for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) lower than 3 m/s 2 and 0.75 m/s, respectively, suggesting that the ground‐motion intensities at this location from earthquakes on nearby faults have most probably not exceeded the above‐mentioned PGA and PGV during the age of the PBR. Additionally, the fragility maps generated from this methodology can also be directly coupled with existing probabilistic frameworks to obtain direct constraints on unexceeded ground motion at a PBR’s location.

California↗

USGS2017

A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast

We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component to the previously published time‐independent and long‐term time‐dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3‐ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multifault ruptures, an elastic‐rebound model for fault‐based ruptures, and a state‐of‐the‐art spatiotemporal clustering component. It also represents an attempt to merge fault‐based forecasts with statistical seismology models, such that information on fault proximity, activity rate, and time since last event are considered in OEF. We describe several unanticipated challenges that were encountered, including a need for elastic rebound and characteristic magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) on faults, both of which are required to get realistic triggering behavior. UCERF3‐ETAS produces synthetic catalogs of M ≥2.5 events, conditioned on any prior M ≥2.5 events that are input to the model. We evaluate results with respect to both long‐term (1000 year) simulations as well as for 10‐year time periods following a variety of hypothetical scenario mainshocks. Although the results are very plausible, they are not always consistent with the simple notion that triggering probabilities should be greater if a mainshock is located near a fault. Important factors include whether the MFD near faults includes a significant characteristic earthquake component, as well as whether large triggered events can nucleate from within the rupture zone of the mainshock. Because UCERF3‐ETAS has many sources of uncertainty, as will any subsequent version or competing model, potential usefulness needs to be considered in the context of actual applications.

California↗

USGS2017

Broadband seismic noise attenuation versus depth at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory

Seismic noise induced by atmospheric processes such as wind and pressure changes can be a major contributor to the background noise observed in many seismograph stations, especially those installed at or near the surface. Cultural noise such as vehicle traffic or nearby buildings with air handling equipment also contributes to seismic background noise. Such noise sources fundamentally limit our ability to resolve earthquake‐generated signals. Many previous seismic noise versus depth studies focused separately on either high‐frequency ( > 1    Hz "> > 1 Hz ) or low‐frequency ( < 0.05    Hz "> < 0.05 Hz ) bands. In this study, we use modern high‐quality broadband (BB) and very broadband (VBB) seismometers installed at depths ranging from 1.5 to 188 m at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory to evaluate noise attenuation as a function of depth over a broad range of frequencies (0.002–50 Hz). Many modern seismometer deployments use BB or VBB seismometers installed at various depths, depending on the application. These depths range from one‐half meter or less in aftershock study deployments, to one or two meters in the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Transportable Array (TA), to a few meters (shallow surface vaults) up to 100 m or more (boreholes) in the permanent observatories of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN). It is important for managers and planners of these and similar arrays and networks of seismograph stations to understand the attenuation of surface‐generated noise versus depth so that they can achieve desired performance goals within their budgets as well as their frequency band of focus. The results of this study will assist in decisions regarding BB and VBB seismometer installation depths. In general, we find that greater installation depths are better and seismometer emplacement in hard rock is better than in soil. Attenuation for any given depth varies with frequency. More specifically, we find that the dependence of depth will be application dependent based on the frequency band and sensitive axes of interest. For quick deployments (like aftershock studies), 1 m may be deep enough to produce good data, especially when the focus is on vertical data where temperature stability fundamentally limits the low‐frequency noise levels and little low‐frequency data will be used. For temporary (medium‐term) deployments (e.g., TA) where low cost can be very important, 2–3 m should be sufficient, but such shallow installations will limit the ability to resolve low‐frequency signals, especially on horizontal components. Of course, one should try for maximum burial depth within the budget when there is interest in using the data for low‐frequency applications. For long‐term deployments like the permanent observatories of the GSN and similar networks, 100–200 m depth in hard rock is desirable to achieve lowest noise, although 30–60 m may be acceptable.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

A note on adding viscoelasticity to earthquake simulators

Here, I describe how time‐dependent quasi‐static stress transfer can be implemented in an earthquake simulator code that is used to generate long synthetic seismicity catalogs. Most existing seismicity simulators use precomputed static stress interaction coefficients to rapidly implement static stress transfer in fault networks with typically tens of thousands of fault patches. The extension to quasi‐static deformation, which accounts for viscoelasticity of Earth’s ductile lower crust and mantle, involves the precomputation of additional interaction coefficients that represent time‐dependent stress transfer among the model fault patches, combined with defining and evolving additional state variables that track this stress transfer. The new approach is illustrated with application to a California‐wide synthetic fault network.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Apparent late Quaternary fault slip rate increase in the southwestern Lower Rhine Graben, central Europe

In regions of low strain, long earthquake recurrence intervals (10 4 –10 6 yrs) and erosive processes limit preservation of Quaternary markers suitable for distinguishing whether faults slip at uniform or secularly varying rates. The Lower Rhine graben in the border region of Germany, The Netherlands, and Belgium provides a unique opportunity to explore Quaternary slip‐rate variations in a region of low strain using the basal (2.29±0.29 Ma) and surface (700±80 ka) contacts of the regionally extensive main terrace (“Hauptterrasse”), deposited by the Rhine and Maas Rivers. These surfaces are vertically offset 3–140 m and 0–68 m, respectively, across individual fault strands within a distributed network of northwest‐trending, slow‐slipping (<0.1 mm/yr) normal faults. In this investigation, we construct Quaternary slip histories for the southern Lower Rhine graben faults using new main terrace surface vertical offset measurements made from light detection and ranging (lidar)‐derived bare‐earth digital terrain models, which we synthesize with existing constraints on the offset basal contact of this fluvial deposit ( n =91 collocated sites with displacement constraints). We find that >80% of the sites record an apparent increase in slip rate for the more recent interval from 700 ka to present, which corresponds to a period of increased uplift of the nearby Rhenish Massif and regional volcanism. However, the apparent increase in slip rate could result, in part, from erosion of the footwall surface below the main terrace, leading to an apparent displacement that is smaller than the total vertical offset since the start of the Quaternary. Prior work focused on characterization of these faults as seismic sources in the Lower Rhine graben has preferentially relied on the average fault‐slip rate constrained using the base of the main terrace. We suggest that average fault‐slip rates calculated using the ∼700 ka main terrace surface are subjected to fewer uncertainties and sample a time interval that is more relevant for seismic‐hazard analysis.

Lower Rhine graben↗

USGS2017

An updated geospatial liquefaction model for global application

We present an updated geospatial approach to estimation of earthquake-induced liquefaction from globally available geospatial proxies. Our previous iteration of the geospatial liquefaction model was based on mapped liquefaction surface effects from four earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Kobe, Japan, paired with geospatial explanatory variables including slope-derived VS30, compound topographic index, and magnitude-adjusted peak ground acceleration from ShakeMap. The updated geospatial liquefaction model presented herein improves the performance and the generality of the model. The updates include (1) expanding the liquefaction database to 27 earthquake events across 6 countries, (2) addressing the sampling of nonliquefaction for incomplete liquefaction inventories, (3) testing interaction effects between explanatory variables, and (4) overall improving model performance. While we test 14 geospatial proxies for soil density and soil saturation, the most promising geospatial parameters are slope-derived VS30, modeled water table depth, distance to coast, distance to river, distance to closest water body, and precipitation. We found that peak ground velocity (PGV) performs better than peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the shaking intensity parameter. We present two models which offer improved performance over prior models. We evaluate model performance using the area under the curve under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and the Brier score. The best-performing model in a coastal setting uses distance to coast but is problematic for regions away from the coast. The second best model, using PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to closest water body, and precipitation, performs better in noncoastal regions and thus is the model we recommend for global implementation.

Christchurch, Kobe↗

USGS2017

Modeling of high‐frequency seismic‐wave scattering and propagation using radiative transfer theory

This is a study of the nonisotropic scattering process based on radiative transfer theory and its application to the observation of the M 4.3 aftershock recording of the 2008 Wells earthquake sequence in Nevada. Given a wide range of recording distances from 29 to 320 km, the data provide a unique opportunity to discriminate scattering models based on their distance‐dependent behaviors. First, we develop a stable numerical procedure to simulate nonisotropic scattering waves based on the 3D nonisotropic scattering theory proposed by Sato (1995). By applying the simulation method to the inversion of M 4.3 Wells aftershock recordings, we find that a nonisotropic scattering model, dominated by forward scattering, provides the best fit to the observed high‐frequency direct S waves and S ‐wave coda velocity envelopes. The scattering process is governed by a Gaussian autocorrelation function, suggesting a Gaussian random heterogeneous structure for the Nevada crust. The model successfully explains the common decay of seismic coda independent of source–station locations as a result of energy leaking from multiple strong forward scattering, instead of backscattering governed by the diffusion solution at large lapse times. The model also explains the pulse‐broadening effect in the high‐frequency direct and early arriving S waves, as other studies have found, and could be very important to applications of high‐frequency wave simulation in which scattering has a strong effect. We also find that regardless of its physical implications, the isotropic scattering model provides the same effective scattering coefficient and intrinsic attenuation estimates as the forward scattering model, suggesting that the isotropic scattering model is still a viable tool for the study of seismic scattering and intrinsic attenuation coefficients in the Earth.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Alternative rupture-scaling relationships for subduction interface and other offshore environments

Alternative fault-rupture-scaling relationships are developed for Mw 7.1– 9.5 subduction interface earthquakes using a new database of consistently derived finitefault rupture models from teleseismic inversion. Scaling relationships are derived for rupture area, rupture length, rupture width, maximum slip, and average slip. These relationships apply width saturation for large-magnitude interface earthquakes (approximately Mw >8:6) for which the physical characteristics of subduction zones limit the depth extent of seismogenic rupture, and consequently, the down-dip limit of strong ground motion generation. On average, the down-dip rupture width for interface earthquakes saturates near 200 km (196 km on average). Accordingly, the reinterpretation of rupture-area scaling for subduction interface earthquakes through the use of a bilinear scaling model suggests that rupture asperity area is less well correlated with magnitude for earthquakes Mw >8:6. Consequently, the size of great-magnitude earthquakes appears to be more strongly controlled by the average slip across asperities. The sensitivity of the interface scaling relationships is evaluated against geographic region (or subduction zone) and average dip along the rupture interface to assess the need for correction factors. Although regional perturbations in fault-rupture scaling could be identified, statistical significance analyses suggest there is little rationale for implementing regional correction factors based on the limited number of interface rupture models available for each region. Fault-rupture-scaling relationships are also developed for intraslab (within the subducting slab), extensional outer-rise and offshore strike-slip environments. For these environments, the rupture width and area scaling properties yield smaller dimensions than interface ruptures for the corresponding magnitude. However, average and maximum slip metrics yield larger values than interface events. These observations reflect both the narrower fault widths and higher stress drops in these faulting environments. Although expressing significantly different rupture-scaling properties from earthquakes in subduction environments, the characteristics of offshore strike-slip earthquake ruptures compare similarly to commonly used rupture-scaling relationships for onshore strike-slip earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Investigation of late Pleistocene and Holocene activity in the San Gregorio fault zone on the continental slope north of Monterey Canyon, offshore central California

We provide an extensive high‐resolution geophysical, sediment core, and radiocarbon dataset to address late Pleistocene and Holocene fault activity of the San Gregorio fault zone (SGFZ), offshore central California. The SGFZ occurs primarily offshore in the San Andreas fault system and has been accommodating dextral strike‐slip motion between the Pacific and North American plates since the mid‐Miocene. Our study focuses on the SGFZ where it has been mapped through the continental slope north of Monterey Canyon. From 2009 to 2015, the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute collected high‐resolution multibeam bathymetry and chirp sub‐bottom profiles using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). Targeted samples were collected using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to provide radiocarbon age constraints. We integrate the high‐resolution geophysical data with radiocarbon dates to reveal Pleistocene seismic horizons vertically offset less than 5 m on nearly vertical faults. These faults are buried by continuous reflections deposited after ∼17.5 ka and likely following erosion during the last sea‐level lowstand ∼21 ka, bracketing the age of faulting to ∼32–21 ka. Clearly faulted horizons are only detected in a small area where mass wasting exhumed older strata to within ∼25 m of the seafloor. The lack of clearly faulted Holocene deposits and possible highly distributed faulting in the study area are consistent with previous interpretations that late Pleistocene and Holocene activity along the SGFZ may decrease to the south. This study illustrates the complexity of the SGFZ, offshore central California, and demonstrates the utility of very high‐resolution data from combined AUV (geophysical)–ROV (seabed sampling) surveys in offshore studies of fault activity.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Finite‐fault Bayesian inversion of teleseismic body waves

Inverting geophysical data has provided fundamental information about the behavior of earthquake rupture. However, inferring kinematic source model parameters for finite‐fault ruptures is an intrinsically underdetermined problem (the problem of nonuniqueness), because we are restricted to finite noisy observations. Although many studies use least‐squares techniques to make the finite‐fault problem tractable, these methods generally lack the ability to apply non‐Gaussian error analysis and the imposition of nonlinear constraints. However, the Bayesian approach can be employed to find a Gaussian or non‐Gaussian distribution of all probable model parameters, while utilizing nonlinear constraints. We present case studies to quantify the resolving power and associated uncertainties using only teleseismic body waves in a Bayesian framework to infer the slip history for a synthetic case and two earthquakes: the 2011 M w 7.1 Van, east Turkey, earthquake and the 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah, Baja California, earthquake. In implementing the Bayesian method, we further present two distinct solutions to investigate the uncertainties by performing the inversion with and without velocity structure perturbations. We find that the posterior ensemble becomes broader when including velocity structure variability and introduces a spatial smearing of slip. Using the Bayesian framework solely on teleseismic body waves, we find rake is poorly constrained by the observations and rise time is poorly resolved when slip amplitude is low.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Recurrent Holocene movement on the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault: The structure that initiated the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, central Alaska

We conducted a trench investigation and analyzed pre‐ and postearthquake topography to determine the timing and size of prehistoric surface ruptures on the Susitna Glacier fault (SGF), the thrust fault that initiated the 2002 M w 7.9 Denali fault earthquake sequence in central Alaska. In two of our three hand‐excavated trenches, we found clear evidence for a single pre‐2002 earthquake (penultimate earthquake [PE]) and determined an age of 2210±420 cal. B.P. (2 σ ) for this event. We used structure‐from‐motion software to create a pre‐2002‐earthquake digital surface model (DSM) from 1:62,800‐scale aerial photography taken in 1980 and compared this DSM with postearthquake 5‐m/pixel Interferometric Synthetic Aperature Radar topography taken in 2010. Topographic profiles measured from the pre‐earthquake DSM show features that we interpret as fault and fold scarps. These landforms were about the same size as those formed in 2002, so we infer that the PE was similar in size to the initial ( M w 7.2) subevent of the 2002 sequence. A recurrence interval of 2270 yrs and dip slip of ∼4.8 m yield a single‐interval slip rate of ∼1.8 mm/yr. The lack of evidence for pre‐PE deformation indicates probable episodic (clustering) behavior on the SGF that may be related to strain migration among other similarly oriented thrust faults that together accommodate shortening south of the Denali fault. We suspect that slip‐partitioned thrust‐triggered earthquakes may be a common occurrence on the Denali fault system, but documenting the frequency of such events will be very difficult, given the lack of long‐term paleoseismic records, the number of potential thrust‐earthquake sources, and the pervasive glacial erosion in the region.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

On the depth extent of co-seismic rupture

We investigate the implications of deformation experiments for the coseismic down‐dip extent of rupture in quasi‐dynamic, whole‐cycle earthquake models of a fault for which the depth of the transition between seismic and aseisimic fault slip depends on strain rate. The calculations use a dislocation fault model from Tse and Rice (1986) with a vertical strike‐slip orientation, mode III rupture, and variable along‐strike length. Our reference calculation is the original rheological representation of Tse and Rice with a strain‐rate‐independent transition. The primary calculations use two different representations of a strain‐rate‐dependent transition: (1) between rate‐weakening friction and dislocation creep and (2) between rate‐weakening and rate‐strengthening frictions. For both these cases, when fault strength is high (friction between 0.5 and 0.6) and the transition is sharp, coseismic slip extends a small distance (1–2 km) below the fixed temperature (depth) that is commonly used to define the rheological transition at the plate‐motion rate. Thus, coseismic slip occurs below the depth assumed in seismic hazard models using microseismicity or a chosen fixed‐temperature contour. Though significant coseismic slip occurs below the plate‐rate transition depth, the added moment is < 10 % "> < 10 % of the total. The deep extension is a region that is rheologically distinct; for example, deep coseismic slip can produce a stress increase rather than a stress drop. If friction is smaller, the deepening effect and its contribution to moment are larger. For all representations of the transition, average and surface slip increase with the along‐strike rupture length in a manner consistent with the limited data from natural observations. However, this property is not controlled by the assumed fault rheology; instead, it arises because the stiffness of the fault decreases weakly with fault length, an intrinsic and unrealistic property of the particular crustal scale fault model used.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR

The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

Nevada↗

USGS2017

3D ground‐motion simulations of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone: Variability of long‐period (T≥1 s) ground motions and sensitivity to kinematic rupture parameters

We examine the variability of long‐period ( T ≥1 s) earthquake ground motions from 3D simulations of M w 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, from a set of 96 rupture models with varying slip distributions, rupture speeds, slip velocities, and hypocenter locations. Earthquake ruptures were prescribed on a 3D fault representation that satisfies geologic constraints and maintained distinct strands for the Warm Springs and for the East Bench and Cottonwood faults. Response spectral accelerations (SA; 1.5–10 s; 5% damping) were measured, and average distance scaling was well fit by a simple functional form that depends on the near‐source intensity level SA 0 ( T ) and a corner distance R c :SA( R , T )=SA 0 ( T )(1+( R / R c )) −1 . Period‐dependent hanging‐wall effects manifested and increased the ground motions by factors of about 2–3, though the effects appeared partially attributable to differences in shallow site response for sites on the hanging wall and footwall of the fault. Comparisons with modern ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) found that the simulated ground motions were generally consistent, except within deep sedimentary basins, where simulated ground motions were greatly underpredicted. Ground‐motion variability exhibited strong lateral variations and, at some sites, exceeded the ground‐motion variability indicated by GMPEs. The effects on the ground motions of changing the values of the five kinematic rupture parameters can largely be explained by three predominant factors: distance to high‐slip subevents, dynamic stress drop, and changes in the contributions from directivity. These results emphasize the need for further characterization of the underlying distributions and covariances of the kinematic rupture parameters used in 3D ground‐motion simulations employed in probabilistic seismic‐hazard analyses.

Utah↗

USGS2017

Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations

The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) was undertaken to image the structure surrounding the SAF and also its subsurface geometry. We present SSIP studies at two locations in the Coachella Valley of the northern Salton trough. On our line 4, a fault‐crossing profile just north of the Salton Sea, sedimentary basin depth reaches 4 km southwest of the SAF. On our line 6, a fault‐crossing profile at the north end of the Coachella Valley, sedimentary basin depth is ∼ 2 – 3    km "> ∼ 2 – 3 km and centered on the central, most active trace of the SAF. Subsurface geometry of the SAF and nearby faults along these two lines is determined using a new method of seismic‐reflection imaging, combined with potential‐field studies and earthquakes. Below a 6–9 km depth range, the SAF dips ∼ 50 ° – 60 ° "> ∼ 50 ° – 60 ° NE, and above this depth range it dips more steeply. Nearby faults are also imaged in the upper 10 km, many of which dip steeply and project to mapped surface fault traces. These secondary faults may join the SAF at depths below about 10 km to form a flower‐like structure. In Appendix D , we show that rupture on a northeast‐dipping SAF, using a single plane that approximates the two dips seen in our study, produces shaking that differs from shaking calculated for the Great California ShakeOut, for which the southern SAF was modeled as vertical in most places: shorter‐period ( T < 1    s "> T < 1 s ) shaking is increased locally by up to a factor of 2 on the hanging wall and is decreased locally by up to a factor of 2 on the footwall, compared to shaking calculated for a vertical fault.

California↗

USGS2017

Long-term afterslip of the M6.0, 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake—Implications for forecasting amount and duration of afterslip on other major creeping faults

We present the longest record of surface afterslip on a continental strike‐slip fault for the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, from which we can derive critical information about the duration and predictability of afterslip relevant to urban displacement hazard applications. Surface slip associated with this event occurred entirely postseismically along the interseismically creeping (0.6–1.5 cm/yr) main trace of the San Andreas fault. Using the first year of afterslip data, the program AFTER correctly predicted the cumulative surface afterslip (maximum ∼35 cm) eventually attained. By 1 yr postearthquake, observed afterslip had accumulated to only ∼74% of its modeled final value u f in units of length. The 6‐yr data suggested final slip would be reached everywhere by ∼6–12 yrs. Parkfield’s afterslip lasted much longer (∼6–12 yrs) than afterslip following a 2014 M 6.0 event in Napa, California, where no interseismic creep was known, and its afterslip neared completion (∼97% of u f ) by 1 yr. The uncertainty in u f for the Napa event fell to ≤2 cm in only three months, versus in 2 yrs for the Parkfield event, mostly because duration of the power‐law stage of afterslip at Parkfield is much longer, ∼1000 (493–1666) days versus ∼100 (35–421) days for Napa. Because the urban Hayward fault near San Francisco, California, like the Parkfield section, exhibits interseismic creep in a similar geological regime, significant afterslip might last for up to a decade following an anticipated M ≥6.7 earthquake, potentially delaying postearthquake recovery.

California↗

USGS2017

Holocene earthquakes of magnitude 7 during westward escape of the Olympic Mountains, Washington

The Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault, previously mapped in Miocene bedrock as an oblique thrust on the north flank of the Olympic Mountains, poses a significant earthquake hazard. Mapping using 2015 light detection and ranging (lidar) confirms 2004 lidar mapping of postglacial ( < 13    ka "> < 13 ka ) and Holocene fault scarps along the 22‐km‐long eastern section of the fault and documents Holocene scarps that extend ≥ 14    km "> ≥ 14 km along a splay fault, the Sadie Creek fault, west of Lake Crescent. Scarp morphology suggests repeated earthquake ruptures along the eastern section of the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault and the Sadie Creek fault since ∼ 13    ka "> ∼ 13 ka . Right‐lateral ( ∼ 11 – 28    m "> ∼ 11 – 28 m ) and vertical (1–2 m) cumulative fault offsets suggest slip rates of ∼ 1 – 2    mm / yr "> ∼ 1 – 2 mm / yr Stratigraphic and age‐model data from five trenches perpendicular to scarps at four sites on the eastern section of the fault show evidence of 3–5 surface‐rupturing earthquakes. Near‐vertical fault dips and upward‐branching fault patterns in trenches, abrupt changes in the thickness of stratigraphic units across faults, and variations in vertical displacement of successive stratigraphic units along fault traces also suggest a large lateral component of slip. Age models suggest two earthquakes date from 1.3 ± 0.8 "> 1.3 ± 0.8 and 2.9 ± 0.6    ka "> 2.9 ± 0.6 ka ; evidence and ages for 2–3 earlier earthquakes are less certain. Assuming 3–5 postglacial earthquakes, lateral and vertical cumulative fault offsets yield average slip per earthquake of ∼ 4.6    m "> ∼ 4.6 m , a lateral‐to‐vertical slip ratio of ∼ 10 : 1 "> ∼ 10 : 1 , and a recurrence interval of 3.5 ± 1.0    ka "> 3.5 ± 1.0 ka . Empirical relations yield moment magnitude estimates of M 7.2–7.5 (slip per earthquake) and 7.1–7.3 (56 km maximum rupture length). An apparent left‐lateral Miocene to right‐lateral Holocene slip reversal on the faults is probably related to overprinting of east‐directed, accretion‐dominated deformation in the eastern core of the Olympic Mountains by north‐directed, margin‐parallel shortening and westward escape of the mountains.

Washington↗