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Users, uses, and value of Landsat satellite imagery: results from the 2012 survey of users

Landsat satellites have been operating since 1972, providing a continuous global record of the Earth’s land surface. The imagery is currently available at no cost through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Social scientists at the USGS Fort Collins Science Center conducted an extensive survey in early 2012 to explore who uses Landsat imagery, how they use the imagery, and what the value of the imagery is to them. The survey was sent to all users registered with USGS who had accessed Landsat imagery in the year prior to the survey and over 11,000 current Landsat imagery users responded. The results of the survey revealed that respondents from many sectors use Landsat imagery in myriad project locations and scales, as well as application areas. The value of Landsat imagery to these users was demonstrated by the high importance of and dependence on the imagery, the numerous environmental and societal benefits observed from projects using Landsat imagery, the potential negative impacts on users’ work if Landsat imagery was no longer available, and the substantial aggregated annual economic benefit from the imagery. These results represent only the value of Landsat to users registered with USGS; further research would help to determine what the value of the imagery is to a greater segment of the population, such as downstream users of the imagery and imagery-derived products.

Open-File Report

Magnitude and frequency of floods in small drainage basins in Idaho

A method is presented in this report for determining magnitude and frequency of floods on streams with drainage areas between 0.5 and 200 square miles. The method relates basin characteristics, including drainage area, percentage of forest cover, percentage of water area, latitude, and longitude, with peak flow characteristics. Regression equations for each of eight regions are presented for determination of QIQ/ the peak discharge, which, on the average, will be exceeded once in 10 years. Peak flows, Q25 and Q 50 , can then be estimated from Q25/Q10 and Q-50/Q-10 ratios developed for each region. Nomographs are included which solve the equations for basins between 1 and 50 square miles. The regional regression equations were developed using multiple regression techniques. Annual peaks for 303 sites were analyzed in the study. These included all records on unregulated streams with drainage areas less than about 500 square miles with 10 years or more of record or which could readily be extended to 10 years on the basis of nearby streams. The log-Pearson Type III method as modified and a digital computer were employed to estimate magnitude and frequency of floods for each of the 303 gaged sites. A large number of physical and climatic basin characteristics were determined for each of the gaged sites. The multiple regression method was then applied to determine the equations relating the floodflows and the most significant basin characteristics. For convenience of the users, several equations were simplified and some complex characteristics were deleted at the sacrifice of some increase in the standard error. Standard errors of estimate and many other statistical data were computed in the analysis process and are available in the Boise district office files. The analysis showed that QIQ was the best defined and most practical index flood for determination of the Q25 and 0,50 flood estimates. Regression equations are not developed because of poor definition for areas which total about 20,000 square miles, most of which are in southern Idaho. These areas are described in the report to prevent use of regression equations where they do not apply. They include urbanized areas, streams affected by regulation or diversion by works of man, unforested areas, streams with gaining or losing reaches, streams draining alluvial valleys and the Snake Plain, intense thunderstorm areas, and scattered areas where records indicate recurring floods which depart from the regional equations. Maximum flows of record and basin locations are summarized in tables and maps. The analysis indicates deficiencies in data exist. To improve knowledge regarding flood characteristics in poorly defined areas, the following data-collection programs are recommended. Gages should be operated on a few selected small streams for an extended period to define floods at long recurrence intervals. Crest-stage gages should be operated in representative basins in urbanized areas, newly developed irrigated areas and grasslands, and in unforested areas. Unusual floods should continue to be measured at miscellaneous sites on regulated streams and in intense thunderstorm-prone areas. The relationship between channel geometry and floodflow characteristics should be investigated as an alternative or supplement to operation of gaging stations. Documentation of historic flood data from newspapers and other sources would improve the basic flood-data base.

Idaho

Population ecology of the mallard: II. Breeding habitat conditions, size of the breeding populations, and production indices

This report, the second in a series on a comprehensive analysis of mallard population data, provides information on mallard breeding habitat, the size and distribution of breeding populations, and indices to production. The information in this report is primarily the result of large-scale aerial surveys conducted during May and July, 1955-73. The history of the conflict in resource utilization between agriculturalists and wildlife conservation interests in the primary waterfowl breeding grounds is reviewed. The numbers of ponds present during the breeding season and the midsummer period and the effects of precipitation and temperature on the number of ponds present are analyzed in detail. No significant cycles in precipitation were detected and it appears that precipitation is primarily influenced by substantial seasonal and random components. Annual estimates (1955-73) of the number of mallards in surveyed and unsurveyed breeding areas provided estimates of the size and geographic distribution of breeding mallards in North America. The estimated size of the mallard breeding population in North America has ranged from a high of 14.4 million in 1958 to a low of 7.1 million in 1965. Generally, the mallard breeding population began to decline after the 1958 peak until 1962, and remained below 10 million birds until 1970. The decline and subsequent low level of the mallard population between 1959 and 1969 .generally coincided with a period of poor habitat conditions on the major breeding grounds. The density of mallards was highest in the Prairie-Parkland Area with an average of nearly 19.2 birds per square mile. The proportion of the continental mallard breeding population in the Prairie-Parkland Area ranged from 30% in 1962 to a high of 600/0 in 1956. The geographic distribution of breeding mallards throughout North America was significantly related to the number of May ponds in the Prairie-Parkland Area . Estimates of midsummer habitat conditions and indices to production from the July Production Survey were studied in detail. Several indices relating to production showed marked declines from west to east in the Prairie-Parkland Area , these are: (1) density of breeding mallards (per square mile and per May pond), (2) brood density (per square mile and per July pond), (3) average brood size (all species combined), and (4) brood survival from class II to class III. An index to late nesting and renesting efforts was highest during years when midsummer water conditions were good. Production rates of many ducks breeding in North America appear to be regulated by both density-dependent and density-independent factors. Spacing of birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area appeared to be a key factor in the density-dependent regulation of the population. The spacing mechanism, in conjunction with habitat conditions, influenced some birds to overfly the primary breeding grounds into less favorable habitats to the north and northwest where the production rate may be suppressed. The production rate of waterfowl in the Prairie Parkland Area seems to be independent of density (after emigration has taken place) because the production index appears to be a linear function of the number of breeding birds in the area. Similarly, the production rate of waterfowl in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba appeared to be independent of density. Production indices in these northern areas appear to be a linear function of the size of the breeding population. Thus, the density and distribution of breeding ducks is probably regulated through a spacing mechanism that is at least partially dependent on measurable environmental factors. The result is a density-dependent process operating to ultimately effect the production and production rate of breeding ducks on a continent-wide basis. Continental production, and therefore the size of the fall population, is probably partially regulated by the number of birds that are distributed north and northwest into environments less favorable for successful reproduction. Thus, spacing of the birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area and the movement of a fraction of the birds out of the prime breeding areas may be key factors in the density-dependent regulation of the total mallard population.

Resource Publication

Hydrology of coal-resource areas in the southern Wasatch Plateau, central Utah

The study defines the surface and groundwater hydrology of coal-resources areas in the Southern Wasatch Plateau in Central Utah and, where possible, predicts the hydrologic impacts of underground mining. Discharge data at four streamflow gaging stations indicated that from 5 to 29% of the average annual precipitation on a drainage runs off streams, mainly during the snowmelt period (spring and summer). Most of the base flow of streams originates as spring discharge in the higher altitudes of drainages. Peak flows, average 7-day flood flows, and flood depths were related to basin characteristics in order to develop flood equations for ungaged sites. Chemical quality of surface water was suitable for most uses. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 97 to 835 milligrams per liter in 61 samples collected throughout the area. Data from wells and coal-test holes, and a comprehensive spring inventory indicate that groundwater occurs in all geologic units exposed in the study area. The coal-bearing Blackhawk Formation and underlying Star Point Sandstone are saturated in most areas. Some future mining operations would require dewatering of the Star Point-Blackhawk aquifer. Most of the springs issue from the Flagstaff Limestone and North Horn Formation above the Star Point-Blackhawk aquifer. It is not known whether water in the Flagstaff and North Horn is perched. Dissolved-solids concentrations in groundwater ranged from 105 to 1,080 milligrams per liter in 87 analyzed samples. Water levels in wells, the discharge of springs, benthic invertebrates in streams, and quantity and quality of mine effluents all need to be monitored in order to detect changes in the hydrologic system caused by coal mining. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Conditions and processes affecting sand resources at archeological sites in the Colorado River corridor below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

This study examined links among fluvial, aeolian, and hillslope geomorphic processes that affect archeological sites and surrounding landscapes in the Colorado River corridor downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona. We assessed the potential for Colorado River sediment to enhance the preservation of river-corridor archeological resources through aeolian sand deposition or mitigation of gully erosion. By identifying locally prevailing wind directions, locations of modern sandbars, and likely aeolian-transport barriers, we determined that relatively few archeological sites are now ideally situated to receive aeolian sand supply from sandbars deposited by recent controlled floods. Whereas three-fourths of the 358 river-corridor archeological sites we examined include Colorado River sediment as an integral component of their geomorphic context, only 32 sites currently appear to have a high degree of connectivity (coupled interactions) between modern fluvial sandbars and sand-dominated landscapes downwind. This represents a substantial decrease from past decades, as determined by aerial-photograph analysis. Thus, we infer that recent controlled floods have had a limited, and declining, influence on archeological-site preservation. Within the study area, overland-flow (gully) erosion is less severe in sand landscapes with active aeolian sand than in landscapes that lack aeolian transport; gullies terminate more commonly in active sand (sand that is mobile by wind rather than stabilized by biologic soil crust). We infer that these characteristics largely result from aeolian sand transport being an effective gully-limiting and gully-annealing mechanism. Aeolian sand activity in the river corridor varies substantially as a function of reach morphology and dominant wind direction relative to the river-corridor orientation, factors that control accommodation space for river-derived sand and the modern sand supply to aeolian dunes. These attributes, together with an inverse correlation between aeolian sand activity and gully occurrence, define varying degrees of net long-term gully-erosion risk for sediment deposits and associated archeological sites in different regions of the river corridor. Over most of the river corridor, including some of the archeologically richest regions, sand is too inactive with respect to aeolian transport to anneal gullies effectively. At eight selected archeological sites that we studied with high-resolution terrestrial lidar scans for more than a year, sand loss by overland flow (gully erosion) and aeolian deflation generally exceeded deposition, such that erosion dominated over most monitoring intervals—even at four sites with strong connectivity to modern sand supply. The Glen Canyon reach of the river corridor appears especially vulnerable to gully erosion. Among the sites that we monitored in detail, erosion generally dominated over deposition to a greater degree at four Glen Canyon sites with no modern sand supply than at four Marble–Grand Canyon sites with aeolian sand supply from controlled-flood sandbars. Although gross annual-scale erosion rates were similar among the Glen Canyon sites and among the Marble–Grand Canyon sites, a relative lack of depositional processes led to greater net erosion at the Glen Canyon sites. Having found no differences in weather patterns to suggest greater erosive forcing in Glen Canyon, and no conclusively influential differences in the slope or watershed area contributing to gully formation, we attribute the greater erosion at the Glen Canyon sites to a combination of inherent geomorphic context (high terraces that do not receive modern sediment supply) and pronounced effects of postdam sediment-supply limitation. We conclude that most of the river-corridor archeological sites are at elevated risk of net erosion under present dam operations. In the present flow regime, controlled floods do not simulate the magnitude or frequency of natural floods, and are not large enough to deposit sand at elevations that were flooded at annual to decadal intervals in predam time. For archeological sites that depend upon river-derived sand, we infer elevated erosion risk owing to a combination of reduced sand supply (both fluvial and aeolian) through (1) the lower-than-natural flood magnitude, frequency, and sediment supply of the controlled-flooding protocol; (2) reduction of open, dry sand area available for wind redistribution under current normal (nonflood) dam operations, which do not include flows as low as natural seasonal low flows and do include substantial daily flow fluctuations; and (3) impeded aeolian sand entrainment and transport owing to increased riparian vegetation growth in the absence of larger, more-frequent floods. If dam operations were to increase the supply of sand available for windblown transport—for example, through larger floods, sediment augmentation, or increased fluvial sandbar exposure by low flows—and also decrease riparian vegetation, the prevalence of active aeolian sand could increase over time, and the propensity for unmitigated gully erosion could decrease. Although the evolution of river-corridor landscapes and archeological sites has been altered fundamentally by the lack of large, sediment-rich floods (flows on the order of 5,000 m 3 /s), some combination of sediment-rich flows above 1,270 m 3 /s, seasonal flows below 226 m 3 /s, and riparian-vegetation removal might increase the preservation potential for sand-dependent archeological resources in the Colorado River corridor.

Arizona

Hydrologic evaluation of Ashley Valley, northern Uinta basin area, Utah

The water resources of the northern Uinta Basin, Utah and Colorado, were studied during 1971-74. Ashley Valley was evaluated in slightly greater detail than the general area, in order to assess the general relation of ground- and surface-water supplies. In Ashley Valley , the principal source of both irrigation supply and ground-water recharge is the flow from Ashley Creek canyon . Ground-water recharge to the valley fill, however, is mainly from canal and field losses along the west side of the valley. The permeability of the fill in most places is high, and water-level records indicate rapid changes in storage in response to the annual applications of irrigation water. Prior to the distribution of water from Steinaker Reservoir, the short runoff season led to a brief, intense irrigation period that was followed by a long period of post-irrigation drainage. After the reservoir began operation, smaller applications of water were made during a longer season, and ground-water levels rose in parts of the valley , mainly the lower areas. Despite local water-level rises, no perennially gaining reaches of the canals were observed. The amount of ground water available from storage in Ashley Valley is estimated to be 50,000-75,000 acre-feet (62-92 cubic hectometres), or enough water to supply irrigation in the valley for a maximum of 2 years. The ground-water storage varies annually about 10 percent and has not changed significantly. Ground water is discharged from Ashley Valley both by seepage back to Ashley Creek and by evapotranspiration . Evapotranspiration of surface and ground water has increased by an estimate 20 percent above the 48,000 acre-feet (59 cubic hectometers) determined for pre-reservoir conditions. As a result, the water that flows from Ashley Valley has been degraded in chemical quality. The water from Ashley Creek canyon is fresh . Mixing of snowmelt and base flow in Steinaker Reservoir yields a water of more uniform quality; but despite some concentration by evaporation from the reservoir, the outflow from the reservoir is fresh. Ground water in most of the valley is fresh , but the water increases in dissolved-solids concentration toward the south and east as a result of both evapotranspiration and solution of minerals from the valley fill and soils .

Utah

Sedimentation survey of Lago Loíza, Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico, July 2009

Lago Loíza is a reservoir formed at the confluence of Río Gurabo and Río Grande de Loíza in the municipality of Trujillo Alto in central Puerto Rico, about 10 kilometers (km) north of the town of Caguas, about 9 km northwest of Gurabo, and about 3 km south of Trujillo Alto (fig. 1). The Carraizo Dam is owned and operated by the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA), and was constructed in 1953 as a water-supply reservoir for the San Juan Metropolitan area. The dam is a concrete gravity structure that is located in a shallow valley and has a gently sloping left abutment and steep right abutment. Non-overflow sections flank the spillway section. Waterways include an intake structure for the pumping station and power plant, sluiceways, a trash sluice, and a spillway. The reservoir was built to provide a storage capacity of 26.8 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) of water at the maximum pool elevation of 41.14 meters (m) above mean sea level (msl) for the Sergio Cuevas Filtration Plant that serves the San Juan metropolitan area. The reservoir has a drainage area of 538 square kilometers (km 2 ) and receives an annual mean rainfall that ranges from 1,600 to 5,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr). The principal streams that drain into Lago Loíza are the Río Grande de Loíza, Río Gurabo, and Río Cañas. Two other rivers, the Río Bairoa and Río Cagüitas, discharge into the Río Grande de Loíza just before it enters the reservoir. The combined mean annual runoff of the Río Grande de Loíza and the Río Gurabo for the 1960–2009 period of record is 323 Mm 3 . Flow from these streams constitutes about 89 percent of the total mean annual inflow of 364 Mm 3 to the reservoir (U.S. Geological Survey, 2009). Detailed information about Lago Loíza reservoir structures, historical sediment accumulation, and a dredge conducted in 1999 are available in Soler-López and Gómez-Gómez (2005). During July 8–15, 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Caribbean Water Science Center (CWSC), in cooperation with PRASA, conducted a bathymetric survey of Lago Loíza to update the reservoir storage capacity and estimate the reservoir sedimentation rate by comparing the 2009 data with the previous 2004 bathymetric survey data. The purpose of this report is to document the methods used to update and present the results of the reservoir storage capacity, sedimentation rates, and areas of substantial sediment accumulation since 2004.

Puerto Rico

Hydrologic Drought of Water Year 2006 Compared with Four Major Drought Periods of the 20th Century in Oklahoma

Water Year 2006 (October 1, 2005, to September 30, 2006) was a year of extreme hydrologic drought and the driest year in the recent 2002-2006 drought in Oklahoma. The severity of this recent drought can be evaluated by comparing it with four previous major hydrologic droughts, water years 1929-41, 1952-56, 1961-72, and 1976-81. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, completed an investigation to summarize the Water Year 2006 hydrologic drought and compare it to the four previous major hydrologic droughts in the 20th century. The period of water years 1925-2006 was selected as the period of record because before 1925 few continuous record streamflow-gaging sites existed and gaps existed where no streamflow-gaging sites were operated. Statewide annual precipitation in Water Year 2006 was second driest and statewide annual runoff in Water Year 2006 was sixth driest in the 82 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service Climate Divisions from Water Year 2006 are compared to those during four previous major hydrologic droughts to show how rainfall deficits in Oklahoma varied by region. Only two of the nine climate divisions, Climate Division 1 Panhandle and Climate Division 4 West Central, had minor rainfall deficits, while the rest of the climate divisions had severe rainfall deficits in Water Year 2006 ranging from only 65 to 73 percent of normal annual precipitation. Regional streamflow patterns for Water Year 2006 indicate that Oklahoma was part of the regionwide below-normal streamflow conditions for Arkansas-White-Red River Basin, the sixth driest since 1930. The percentage of long-term stations in Oklahoma (with at least 30 years of record) having below-normal streamflow reached 80 to 85 percent for some days in August and November 2006. Twelve long-term streamflow-gaging sites with periods of record ranging from 62 to 78 years were selected to show how streamflow deficits varied by region. The hydrologic drought worsened going from north to south in Oklahoma, ranging from 45 percent in the north, to just 14 percent in east-central Oklahoma, and 20 percent of normal annual streamflow in the southwest. The low streamflows resulted in only 86.3 percent of the statewide conservation storage available at the end of the water year in major reservoirs, and 7 to 47 percent of hydroelectric power generation at sites in Oklahoma in Calendar Year 2005.

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluation of the potential for hysteresis in index-velocity ratings for the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for monitoring flows in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) near Lemont, Illinois, as a part of the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting overseen by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District. Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting is mandated by a U.S. Supreme Court decree in order to monitor, and limit, the State of Illinois’ annual diversion of Great Lakes water through the manmade CSSC. Every 5 years, a technical review committee consisting of practicing engineers and academics reviews USGS streamgaging practices in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The sixth technical review committee expressed concern that the index-velocity rating—the method used to estimate mean cross-sectional velocity from a measured index velocity—may be subject to hysteresis at this site because of the unique, unsteady hydraulics of the canal. Hysteresis in index-velocity ratings can occur at sites where the flow distribution in the channel varies significantly between the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph for the same discharge. Presently, hysteresis in index-velocity ratings has been documented only in tidally affected sites. This report investigates whether hysteresis can occur at this nontidal site, and the conditions under which it is likely to occur, by using both a theoretical approach and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The theoretical analysis investigated the conditions required for hysteresis in the index-velocity rating, and the modeling analysis focused on the effect of the timing of the inflows from the CSSC and the Cal-Sag Channel on the potential for hysteresis and whether highly resolved simulations of actual high-flow events show any evidence of hysteresis. Based on both a theoretical analysis using observed historical data and an analysis using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, there is no conclusive evidence for the existence of hysteresis in the index-velocity rating at the USGS streamgage on the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. Although the theoretical analysis indicated the possibility of hysteresis at this site, the hydrodynamic conditions required to generate hysteresis are not present at this site based on historical data. Ongoing streamgaging practices at this site will use the information in this report and include periodic assessment of the index-velocity rating for any signs of hysteresis that might result from future changes to the operation of this manmade canal.

Illinois

Surface-water characteristics and quality on the Osage Reservation, Osage County, Oklahoma, 1999

Concern about the effects of early oil-industry practices of surface disposal of produced-brine water prompted an investigation of the surface-water quality on the Osage Reservation. About 38,600 oil wells have been drilled on the Osage Reservation since drilling began in 1896. The Osage Reservation comprises three major drainage basins. The Caney River Basin is in the northeast, the Bird Creek Basin is in the southeast, and the Salt Creek Basin in the west. Variations in streamflow on the Osage Reservation during a year primarily result from variations in the quantity and frequency of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and reservoir operations. Most streams do not flow during low rainfall periods in late summer, early fall, and in winter. Percent of mean annual discharge is largest during March through June, averaging 54 to 62 percent and smallest during December, January, July, and August, averaging only 14 to 21 percent. The basin areas of Caney River in the reservation (251 square miles), Salt Creek (273 square miles), and Sand Creek (227 square miles) are about the same and the basin areas of the Bird Creek Basin (418 square miles) and Homily Creek Basin (383 square miles) are similar in area. One hundred forty surface-water sites were sampled once during either February, March or August 1999. The surface-drainage areas, incremental basins, between sample sites along a stream, range in size from 0.26 to 123 square miles with a median of 8.6 square miles. Total number of oil wells upgradient of the samples sites is 31,432 or 80 percent of the total in the reservation. The total number of oil wells in the Caney River Basin in the reservation (2,975 wells), Salt Creek Basin (4,619 wells), and Sand Creek Basin (3,858 wells) are about the same and the total number of oil wells in the Bird Creek Basin (8,858 wells) and Hominy Creek Basin (7,842 wells) are similar. The number of oil wells per square mile in the incremental basins ranges for 0.86 to 154. Surface-water quality monitoring had been conducted previously at two sites included in this study. Dissolved chloride concentrations for the two samples collected during 1999 were equaled or exceeded at both sites by the historical data. There is no statistically significant difference between the distribution of the dissolved chloride concentrations from the surface water and nearby ground-water samples. The surface-water quality samples had significantly lesser concentrations of dissolved solids, sulfate, and nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen than the ground-water samples. Chloride yield, reported in tons per day per square mile, is the chloride load divided by the basin area upstream of the sample site. The mean of the chloride yields for all the samples was 0.07 ton per day per square mile. Many sample locations where yields were greater than 0.07 ton per day per square mile were areas where dissolved chloride concentrations from surface-water samples were greater than 250 milligrams per liter in an earlier water-quality investigation. An investigation of possible relations between the surface-water quality data and the oil-well construction data for the incremental basins and for 1-mile radial distance upstream in the incremental basins was conducted. The oil-well data also were grouped by the time periods of activity into pre-1930, 1930 to 1970, and post-1970. These groups attempt to account for differences in industry drilling and producing practices associated with various periods. No statistically significant correlations were found between the surface-water quality data and the oil-well construction data.

Oklahoma

U.S. Geological Survey response to Hurricane Maria flooding in Puerto Rico and characterization of peak streamflows observed September 20–22, 2017

Hurricane Maria struck the island of Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017, as a Category 4 storm. The hurricane traversed the island from southeast to northwest and produced recorded 48-hour rainfall totals of up to 30.01 inches. Estimates of the human death toll range from 2,975 to 4,645, possibly more. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic monitoring network sustained substantial wind and flood damage during the hurricane. Eighty-five of the 300 hydrologic monitoring stations operating in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands prior to the passage of Hurricane Maria were destroyed or damaged. During the weeks and months after the hurricane, USGS field crews in Puerto Rico prioritized repair of the hydrologic monitoring network and collected hydrologic information to characterize the magnitude of observed peak streamflows at 20 streamgage and to develop new theoretical stage-streamflow relations for 58 streamgages where stream channels were substantially altered; the theoretical stage-streamflow relations were used to estimate Hurricane Maria peak streamflows for 39 of those sites. As part of a pilot program, USGS field crews installed continuous slope-area monitoring equipment at two remote streamgages to automate the collection of high-streamflow stage data. Hurricane Maria peak streamflows and rankings were determined for 73 USGS streamgages in Puerto Rico. New rank 1 period-of-record peak streamflows occurred at 28 sites, rank 2 period-of-record peak streamflows occurred at 17 sites, and rank 3 period-of-record peak streamflows occurred at 9 sites; period-of-record peak streamflows at the remaining 19 sites either ranked from 4th to 20th or were not ranked. Annual exceedance probabilities for 53 unregulated peak streamflows ranged from greater than 50.0 percent (recurrence interval of less than 2 years) to 0.3 percent (recurrence interval of 333 years), with the majority (28 of 53) in the range of 10.0–2.1 percent (recurrence intervals of 10–48 years). A comparison of period-of-record ranks for the largest flood events that have occurred in Puerto Rico since the 1960s indicated that Hurricane Maria produced more record peak streamflows than either Hurricane Hortense in 1996 or Hurricane Georges in 1998. Limited pre-1960s hydrologic data preclude quantitative comparison with earlier storms. As part of this study, a maximum peak-streamflow envelope curve for Puerto Rico was developed using historical peak-streamflow information available through 2017. Other post-Hurricane Maria USGS activities summarized in this report include (1) Global Navigation Satellite System surveys at all stations in the USGS hydrologic monitoring network, used to tie the network to the Puerto Rico Vertical Datum of 2002; and (2) telemetered monitoring of the Lago Guajataca Dam in northwestern Puerto Rico, which was damaged and at risk of failure from October to December 2017.

Puerto Rico

Geology and undiscovered resource assessment of the potash-bearing, Middle Devonian (Givetian), Prairie Evaporite, Elk Point Basin, Canada and United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessed undiscovered potash resources in the Elk Point Basin in Canada and the United States as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The Elk Point Basin is a large, Middle Devonian (Givetian) intracratonic evaporite basin covering approximately 1,200,000 square kilometers (km 2 ) and filled mainly with marine evaporite and minor clastic sedimentary rocks that contain stratabound potash-bearing salt. The potash-bearing salt is concentrated in four stratigraphic members (Patience Lake, Belle Plaine, White Bear, and Esterhazy) in the upper 100 meters (m) of the Prairie Evaporite and are separated by beds of halite (NaCl) that contain lesser—presently non-economic—amounts of sylvite (KCl) and carnallite (KMgCl 3 ·6H 2 O). The principal ore-bearing salt contains mainly sylvite. Four permissive tracts were defined that permit the presence of undiscovered stratabound potash (both sylvite- and carnallite-bearing salt) using geological criteria. Permissive tracts are defined by the spatial extent of each stratigraphic member that is at least 1 m thick, are less than 3 kilometers (km) from the surface, contain at least 4 percent equivalent potassium oxide (K 2 O), and contain the currently known resources. The permissive tracts include known potash deposits and potash occurrences as wells or mines not in production and show where undiscovered potash resources may be present. Well data are used to define the extent, thickness, average K 2 O equivalent grades, and volumes of each member. Data were supplied by the Saskatchewan Geological Survey or were obtained from published National Instrument (NI) 43-101 technical reports and other published reports, such as annual 10-K reports or news releases. The Elk Point Basin is the world’s largest source of potash, producing 23.0 million metric tons (Mt) of potassium chloride (KCl) (the equivalent of about 14.4 Mt of K 2 O) in 2018. In terms of global importance, the Elk Point Basin may contain 40 to greater than 50 percent of the world’s potash resources. Since 1962, potash companies have mined more than 1.5 trillion metric tons of ore containing 605 Mt of KCl (the equivalent of about 380 Mt of K 2 O). The total value of the ore produced through 2018 is on the order of $70 trillion (CAD). Potash is currently produced from eight conventional and three underground solution mines at depths ranging from 900 m to nearly 1,800 m. Estimates of the amount of potash in the Elk Point Basin vary considerably and the data and methods used in those estimations are not well documented. Known potash resources are approximately 99 billion metric tons (Bt) of ore containing 22 Bt of K 2 O equivalent. As a result of new mine openings and increased production capacity at existing mines, the total production capacity of mines in the Elk Point Basin has increased significantly (to about 32.8 Mt of KCl or 22.8 Mt of K 2 O equivalent per year). Additional production capacity of about 31 Mt of KCl (or 17 Mt of K 2 O equivalent) per year could be realized over the next decade if several current (as of 2019) exploration and development projects reach production status. Stratabound potash-bearing salt of the Prairie Evaporite presently underlies a total area of about 188,000 km 2 and has a total volume of about 2,690 cubic kilometers (km 3 ). Post-depositional solution processes considerably modified the mineralogy and presence of the potash-bearing salt. These changes had a profound effect on the volume and grade of potash resources that remained in the Prairie Evaporite and are a major consideration of exploration and mining operations as well as in this assessment of undiscovered potash resources. This USGS assessment includes the locations and possible amounts of undiscovered potash resources in the Prairie Evaporite. Volumes for each stratigraphic member were computed using member thicknesses and areal extent modified by actual, estimated geologic loss owing to salt dissolution and extraction ratios, as well as estimated distribution of carnallite and sylvite. Both sylvite- and carnallite-bearing salts were assessed for potash in this study. The assessment uses modern published grade and tonnage data. The amount of undiscovered potash is estimated by using Monte Carlo simulations to combine volume estimates of the potash-bearing members with probability distributions for average grade and bulk density. Mean potash grades (expressed as percentage of K 2 O equivalent) calculated using drill core analyses are 17.76 for the Patience Lake Member, 15.98 for the Belle Plaine Member, 10.66 for the White Bear Member, and 15.30 for the Esterhazy Member. Geologic losses reported as extraction ratios during mining may range from 27.5 to 41.6 percent and are dependent on mining method and local geologic conditions. The assessment determined that mean estimated undiscovered K 2 O equivalent resources for the Patience Lake, Belle Plaine, White Bear, and Esterhazy Members are 340, 220, 34, and 190 Bt, respectively, and estimated a total mean of 790 Bt for the entire Prairie Evaporite above a depth of 3 km. The total mineralized rock tonnage is estimated to be about 5,000 Bt. Most of the assessed potash is located within Saskatchewan with lesser amounts in Alberta and Manitoba as well as Montana and North Dakota within the United States. Although carnallite is mined for potash in Europe, it has historically been avoided in mining plans for potash-producing companies in Saskatchewan because of mining, processing, and grade considerations. Carnallite-rich salt is locally present in concentrations and volumes that could be a significant resource of magnesium chloride (MgCl 2 ) obtained as a byproduct of processing the carnallite for potash. Previously estimated reserves (not NI 43-101 compliant) of mineralized material from 1955 to 2019 are 695 Mt at 22.1 percent MgCl 2 . The total amount of K 2 O equivalent as carnallite was estimated during this USGS assessment to be about 120 Bt (or 180 Bt KCl). With uncertainties in defining the areal extent of carnallite in each of the potash-bearing members, the amount of MgCl 2 as carnallite in the Elk Point Basin could be approximately 180 Bt.

Elk Point basin

Development of continuous bathymetry and two-dimensional hydraulic models for the Willamette River, Oregon

The Willamette River is home to at least 69 species of fish, 33 of which are native, including Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). These fish need suitable hydraulic conditions, such as water depth and velocity, to fulfill various stages of their life. Hydraulic conditions are driven by interactions between channel morphology and streamflow, which throughout the Willamette River are strongly influenced by the operation of flood-control dams in upstream tributaries. To assess how streamflow management at these dams affects downstream fish habitat, the U.S. Geological Survey has developed high-resolution bathymetric datasets to support the development of two-dimensional hydraulic models. The datasets were created by combining data collected by airborne topo-bathymetric Light Detection and Ranging with boat-based sonar to create a seamless modeling surface over which a computational mesh with a resolution of roughly 5 by 5 meters was overlaid using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System 5.0.7 hydraulic modeling software. Models were developed for about 200 river kilometers, separated into five modeling reaches, and hydraulic conditions were simulated at flows ranging from extremely low values to annual peak flows. Results of the simulations highlight distinct patterns of inundation extents, water depths, and velocities that vary longitudinally along the Willamette River. In the two farthest upstream model reaches, from Eugene to Corvallis, the river is slower, shallower, and inundates more area at similar seasonal flows than in reaches downstream from Corvallis, where the river generally is deeper and faster. These findings align with previous geomorphic analysis of the Willamette River showing the upper reaches of the river to be geomorphically more dynamic compared to the largely single-thread channel farther downstream. Results of simulations made with these hydraulic models can be used to drive fish-habitat models to further inform flow-management decisions.

Oregon

Flood of June 22-24, 2006, in North-Central Ohio, With Emphasis on the Cuyahoga River Near Independence

Heavy rains caused severe flooding on June 22-24, 2006, and damaged approximately 4,580 homes and 48 businesses in Cuyahoga County. Damage estimates in Cuyahoga County for the two days of flooding exceed $47 million; statewide damage estimates exceed $150 million. Six counties (Cuyahoga, Erie, Huron, Lucas, Sandusky, and Stark) in northeast Ohio were declared Federal disaster areas. One death, in Lorain County, was attributed to the flooding. The peak streamflow of 25,400 cubic feet per second and corresponding peak gage height of 23.29 feet were the highest recorded at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station Cuyahoga River at Independence (04208000) since the gaging station began operation in 1922, exceeding the previous peak streamflow of 24,800 cubic feet per second that occurred on January 22, 1959. An indirect calculation of the peak streamflow was made by use of a step-backwater model because all roads leading to the gaging station were inundated during the flood and field crews could not reach the station to make a direct measurement. Because of a statistically significant and persistent positive trend in the annual-peak-streamflow time series for the Cuyahoga River at Independence, a method was developed and applied to detrend the annual-peak-streamflow time series prior to the traditional log-Pearson Type III flood-frequency analysis. Based on this analysis, the recurrence interval of the computed peak streamflow was estimated to be slightly less than 100 years. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, and recurrence-interval estimates for the June 22-24, 2006, flood are tabulated for the Cuyahoga River at Independence and 10 other USGS gaging stations in north-central Ohio. Because flooding along the Cuyahoga River near Independence and Valley View was particularly severe, a study was done to document the peak water-surface profile during the flood from approximately 2 miles downstream from the USGS streamflow-gaging station at Independence to approximately 2 miles upstream from the gaging station. High-water marks were identified and flagged in the field. Third-order-accuracy surveys were used to determine elevations of the high-water marks, and the data were tabulated and plotted.

Scientific Investigations Report

The Role of Eolian Sediment in the Preservation of Archeologic Sites Along the Colorado River Corridor in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona

Since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, the natural hydrologic and sedimentary systems along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon reach have changed substantially (see, for example, Andrews, 1986; Johnson and Carothers, 1987; Webb and others, 1999b; Rubin and others, 2002; Topping and others, 2003; Wright and others, 2005; Hazel and others, 2006b). The dam has reduced the fluvial sediment supply at the upstream boundary of Grand Canyon National Park by about 95 percent. Regulation of river discharge by dam operations has important implications for the storage and redistribution of sediment in the Colorado River corridor. In the absence of floods, sediment is not deposited at elevations that regularly received sediment before dam closure. Riparian vegetation has colonized areas at lower elevations than in predam time when annual floods removed young vegetation (Turner and Karpiscak, 1980). Together, these factors have caused a systemwide decrease in the size and number of subaerially exposed fluvial sand deposits since the 1960s, punctuated by episodic aggradation during the exceptional high-flow intervals in 1983-84, 1996, and 2004 and by sediment input from occasional tributary floods (Beus and others, 1985; Schmidt and Graf, 1987; Kearsley and others, 1994; Hazel and others, 1999; Schmidt and others, 2004; Wright and others, 2005). When the Bureau of Reclamation sponsored the creation of the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies (GCES) research initiative in 1982, research objectives included physical and biologic resources, whereas the effects of dam operations on cultural resources were not addressed (Fairley and others, 1994; Fairley, 2003). In the early 1980s, it was widely believed that because few archeologic sites were preserved within the river's annual-flood zone, cultural features would not be greatly affected by dam operations. Recent studies, however, indicate that alterations in the flow and sediment load of the Colorado River by Glen Canyon Dam operations may affect archeologic sites within the river corridor, even above the annual flood limit (Hereford and others, 1993, Yeatts, 1996, 1997; Thompson and Potochnik, 2000; Draut and others, 2005). (The annual-flood zone is defined here by the mean annual predam flood of 2,410 m3/s; the 'predam flood limit', the highest elevation at which fluvial deposits are present locally, was approximately equivalent to a rare, major flood of 8,500 m3/s; Topping and others, 2003.) Of about 500 archeologic sites documented between Glen Canyon Dam and Separation Canyon (255 river miles), more than 330 are considered to be within the area of potential effect (APE) of dam operations (Fairley and others, 1994; Neal and others, 2000; Fairley, 2005). The APE was designated by the National Park Service (NPS) to include the area below the peak stage of the 1884 flood; though previously believed to have reached 8,490 m3/s, this flood was shown by Topping and others (2003) to have peaked at 5,940 m3/s. Archeologic research and monitoring in Grand Canyon National Park focus increasingly on the potential effects of Glen Canyon Dam operations on the landscape in which these sites exist. Many archeologic sites in or on sedimentary deposits are being eroded, owing to eolian deflation and gully incision (Leap and others, 2000; Neal and others, 2000; Fairley, 2003, 2005). Hereford and others (1993) first suggested that gully incision of sedimentary deposits, and the base level to which small drainage systems respond, were linked to dam operations; they hypothesized that pronounced arroyo incision, which occurs during rainfall runoff, was caused by lowering of the effective base level at the mouths of ephemeral drainages to meet the new postdam elevation of high-flow sediment deposition, about 3 to 4 m below the lowest predam alluvial terraces. Thompson and Potochnik (2000) modified that hypothesis to include the restorative effects of fluvial deposition in the mouths of gullies and ar

Professional Paper

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2014 through December 2014

Executive Summary The Wind River subbasin in southwest Washington State provides habitat for a population of wild Lower Columbia River steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss , which are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. No hatchery steelhead have been planted in the Wind River subbasin since 1994, and hatchery adults are estimated to be less than one percent of adults in any year (Thomas Buehrens, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, personal communication). Numerous restoration actions have been implemented in the subbasin, including the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek in 2009. We used Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTIS) to investigate life-histories, populations, and efficacy of habitat restoration actions for these steelhead. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), will contribute to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research Monitoring and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring ( www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/ViewProgramStrategySummary/1 ), specifically the sub-strategies of: 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and to Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild steelhead population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer 2014, we PIT-tagged steelhead parr in headwater areas of the Wind River subbasin to investigate life-history diversity, specifically to compare fate of those juvenile steelhead that move downstream prior to smolting with those that remain in their natal areas until smolting. A series of instream PTISs monitored movement of these fish. We added a new multi-antenna PTIS on Trout Creek and made improvements to two of our smaller tributary PTISs during 2014. Detections at the instream PTISs showed trends of parr emigration during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Long-term monitoring of PIT-tagged fish will provide information on contribution of various life-history strategies to smolt production and adult returns, as well as helping to identify factors influencing parr movement. Movements of PIT-tagged adult steelhead were tracked with our instream PTISs. These data will contribute to a better understanding of timing and distribution of spawning by this population of wild steelhead within the Wind River subbasin. Additionally, these data have provided information on timing of adult movements to various parts of the watershed, which is allowing us to assess adult use of tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. These data are contributing to evaluating steelhead response to the removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek. Hemlock Dam, which was located at rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek, was removed in summer 2009 and had contributed to hydrologic impairment of Trout Creek and potentially caused some deterrent to upstream adult steelhead migration. Evaluating restoration efforts is of interest to many managers and agencies so that funding and time are allocated for best results. The evaluation of various life-histories of Lower Columbia River steelhead within the Wind River subbasin provides information to better track populations, and more effectively direct habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Increasingly detailed Viable Salmonid Population information (Crawford and Rumsey 2009), such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTISs networks like those we build and operate in the Wind River subbasin, provide data to better inform policy and management, as life-history strategies and production bottlenecks are identified and understood.

Washington

Hydrogeologic Setting and Ground-Water Flow in the Leetown Area, West Virginia

The Leetown Science Center is a research facility operated by the U.S. Geological Survey that occupies approximately 455-acres near Kearneysville, Jefferson County, West Virginia. Aquatic and fish research conducted at the Center requires adequate supplies of high-quality, cold ground water. Three large springs and three production wells currently (in 2006) supply water to the Center. The recent construction of a second research facility (National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture) operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and co-located on Center property has placed additional demands on available water resources in the area. A three-dimensional steady-state finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Leetown area and was used to assess the availability of ground water to sustain current and anticipated future demands. The model also was developed to test a conceptual model of ground-water flow in the complex karst aquifer system in the Leetown area. Due to the complexity of the karst aquifer system, a multidisciplinary research study was required to define the hydrogeologic setting. Geologic mapping, surface- and borehole-geophysical surveys, stream base-flow surveys, and aquifer tests were conducted to provide the hydrogeologic data necessary to develop and calibrate the model. It would not have been possible to develop a numerical model of the study area without the intensive data collection and methods developments components of the larger, more comprehensive hydrogeologic investigation. Results of geologic mapping and surface-geophysical surveys verified the presence of several prominent thrust faults and identified additional faults and other complex geologic structures (including overturned anticlines and synclines) in the area. These geologic structures are known to control ground-water flow in the region. Results of this study indicate that cross-strike faults and fracture zones are major avenues of ground-water flow. Prior to this investigation, the conceptual model of ground-water flow for the region focused primarily on bedding planes and strike-parallel faults and joints as controls on ground-water flow but did not recognize the importance of cross-strike faults and fracture zones that allow ground water to flow downgradient across or through less permeable geologic formations. Results of the ground-water flow simulation indicate that current operations at the Center do not substantially affect either streamflow (less than a 5-percent reduction in annual streamflow) or ground-water levels in the Leetown area under normal climatic conditions but potentially could have greater effects on streamflow during long-term drought (reduction in streamflow of approximately 14 percent). On the basis of simulation results, ground-water withdrawals based on the anticipated need for an additional 150 to 200 gal/min (gallons per minute) of water at the Center also would not seriously affect streamflow (less than 8 to 9 percent reduction in streamflow) or ground-water levels in the area during normal climatic conditions. During drought conditions, however, the effects of current ground-water withdrawals and anticipated additional withdrawals of 150 to 200 gal/min to augment existing supplies result in moderate to substantial declines in water levels of 0.5-1.2 feet (ft) in the vicinity of the Center's springs and production wells. Streamflow was predicted to be reduced locally by approximately 21 percent. Such withdrawals during a drought or prolonged period of below normal ground-water levels would result in substantial declines in the flow of the Center's springs and likely would not be sustainable for more than a few months. The drought simulated in this model was roughly equivalent to the more than 1-year drought that affected the region from November 1998 through February 2000. The potential reduction in streamflow is a result of capture of ground water tha

Scientific Investigations Report

Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) 6-year summary, Naval Outlying Landing Field, Imperial Beach, southwestern San Diego County, California, 2014–20

Executive Summary From 2014 to 2020, a Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) banding station (station) was operated at the Naval Outlying Landing Field (NOLF), Imperial Beach, in southwestern San Diego County, California. The station was established as part of a long-term monitoring program of Neotropical migratory bird populations on NOLF and helps Naval Base Coronado (NOLF is a component) meet the goals and objectives of the Department of Defense Partners in Flight program and the Birds and Migratory Birds Management Strategies of the Naval Base Coronado Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan. The station was established in 2009 and has been in operation during the spring and summer since 2009 except for 2016 when it was not funded. The station was operated by AMEC Earth and Environmental, Inc., from 2009 to 2011, by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2012 to 2015, the San Diego Natural History Museum in 2017, and the U.S. Geological Survey again from 2018 to 2023. This report synthesizes results from 2014 to 2020. A prior report presents summaries and analyses from 2009 to 2013. The banding station at NOLF was operated according to the standard MAPS protocol with some exceptions. Ten mist nets used to capture birds were erected in fixed locations that remained consistent between and within years, with few minor relocations. Nets were open for 6 hours per day, once every 10 days (a netting period) for 13 netting periods starting April 1 each year. Occasionally, poor weather conditions (for example, rain, wind, or excessive heat) prevented net operation or forced nets to be closed early (or, rarely, late). Nets were checked periodically throughout the day and birds were removed, processed (leg bands affixed, measurements recorded), and released. From 2014 to 2020, we had 3,543 captures (including initial captures and recaptures) of a maximum of 3,264 year-unique captures (543±143 year-unique captures [the total number of individual birds captured for the first time each year]). The count of year-unique captures included 2,702 newly banded birds, 258 individuals that were recaptured from previous years, and 304 birds that were released unbanded (218 hummingbirds and 86 other birds that were intentionally released unbanded [game birds, and so forth] or escaped before banding). Individuals of 68 species were captured, 39 of which breed at or in the immediate vicinity of the MAPS banding station. Bird capture rate averaged 43±30 captures per day (corrected to account for variation in effort) for all years (range 7–163 effort-corrected captures per day) and species richness per year averaged 43±4. Bushtit ( Psaltriparus minimus ) was the most abundant species captured, followed by Orange-crowned Warbler ( Leiothlypis celata ), Wilson’s Warbler ( Cardellina pusilla ), House Finch ( Haemorhous mexicanus ), Song Sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ), and Common Yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ). The mean adult sex ratio of all species combined across all years was 54:46 male:female. Adults averaged 73±12 percent of known age captures per year (range 59–94 percent), and juveniles averaged 27±12 percent (range 6–41 percent). Nineteen sensitive species were detected at NOLF (12 captured and 7 observed only). During 2014–20, we captured one State and federally endangered species, Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ); one federally threatened species, California Gnatcatcher ( Polioptila californica ); one State endangered species, Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ); and two State species of concern, Yellow-breasted Chat ( Icteria virens ) and Yellow Warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). One additional State species of concern, Northern Harrier ( Circus hudsonius ), was observed at the MAPS banding station but not captured. Peregrine Falcon ( Falco peregrinus ) and White-tailed Kite ( Elanus leucurus ), California State fully protected species, also were observed at the MAPS banding station. Seven federal bird species of conservation concern—Calliope Hummingbird ( Selasphorus calliope ), Rufous Hummingbird ( Selasphorus rufus ), Allen’s Hummingbird ( Selasphorus sasin ), Nuttall’s Woodpecker ( Dryobates nuttallii ), Wrentit ( Chamaea fasciata ), California Thrasher ( Toxostoma redivivum ), and Lawrence’s Goldfinch ( Spinus lawrencei )—also were captured, and four additional federal bird species of conservation concern—Willet ( Tringa semipalmata ), Western Gull ( Larus occidentalis ), California Gull ( Larus californicus ), and Bullock’s Oriole ( Icterus bullockii )—were observed but not captured. Local population trends varied among species and years. From 2012 to 2019, year-round residents Bushtit, Song Sparrow, and Common Yellowthroat significantly decreased, whereas the migrant Least Bell’s Vireo increased. The total number of captures for all species except Least Bell’s Vireo was lowest in 2017, corresponding to the habitat damage caused by Kuroshio shot hole borer beetle ( Euwallacea kuroshio ) in the Tijuana River Valley. Annual productivity and annual adult survival were calculated for seven breeding species based on criteria used by the Institute for Bird Populations (Least Bell’s Vireo, Bushtit, Wrentit, House Wren [ Troglodytes aedon ], Song Sparrow, Orange-crowned Warbler, and Common Yellowthroat). Productivity was highest for most species in 2010 and 2019, years with high precipitation, and lowest in 2014 and 2018, years with low precipitation. Song Sparrow demonstrated the highest productivity among species and Least Bell’s Vireo had the lowest productivity. Annual adult survival was generally high from 2011 to 2012 and from 2018 to 2019. Bushtit had higher annual survival with lower late winter precipitation. Either temperature or precipitation was associated with productivity for all species except Wrentit, and with survival for all species except Least Bell’s Vireo and Common Yellowthroat. For most species, productivity was positively associated with precipitation, and both productivity and survival were negatively associated with temperature. Other studies have found that higher temperatures led to increased predation by snakes and birds and also increased vector-borne disease transmission, such as West Nile virus. Predicted regional increases in temperature over the next 30 years will likely affect the demographics of these species. The Song Sparrow population increased with higher breeding productivity during the previous year, and the Bushtit population increased with higher annual survival and higher productivity during the previous year. Aside from a possible positive association between survivorship and Common Yellowthroat population growth, productivity and survival rates did not appear to influence population change for other focal species.

California