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Stochastic watershed model ensembles for long-range planning: Verification and validation

Deterministic watershed models (DWMs) are used in nearly all hydrologic planning, design, and management activities, yet they cannot generate streamflow ensembles needed for hydrologic risk management (HRM). The stochastic component of DWMs is often ignored in practice, leading to a systematic bias in extreme events. Since traditional stochastic streamflow models used in HRM struggle to account for anthropogenic change, there is a need to convert DWMs into stochastic watershed models (SWMs) to generate ensembles for use in HRM. A DWM can be converted to an SWM using a post-processing (pp) approach to add error to the DWM predictions. Many pp methods advanced in the area of flood forecasting are useful in HRM and for correcting extreme event biases. Selecting a suitable error model for pp is challenging due to nonnormality, skewness, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. We develop a parsimonious pp method based on an autoregressive (AR) model of the logarithm of the ratio of the observations and simulations, which leads to AR model residuals that are approximately symmetric and independent. We document the value of pp for improving flood and low flow frequency analysis and we reintroduce the concepts of verification and validation of stochastic streamflow ensembles to ensure that the SWM can reproduce both statistics it was and was not designed to reproduce, respectively. These concepts are illustrated on a Massachusetts basin using the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, with an additional analysis indicating the approach may be applicable to 1,225 other sites across the United States.

Massachusetts, New Hampshire

One-hundred fundamental, open questions to integrate methodological approaches in lake ice research

The rate of technological innovation within aquatic sciences outpaces the collective ability of individual scientists within the field to make appropriate use of those technologies. The process of in situ lake sampling remains the primary choice to comprehensively understand an aquatic ecosystem at local scales; however, the impact of climate change on lakes necessitates the rapid advancement of understanding and the incorporation of lakes on both landscape and global scales. Three fields driving innovation within winter limnology that we address here are autonomous real-time in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling. The recent progress in low-power in situ sensing and data telemetry allows continuous tracing of under-ice processes in selected lakes as well as the development of global lake observational networks. Remote sensing offers consistent monitoring of numerous systems, allowing limnologists to ask certain questions across large scales. Models are advancing and historically come in different types (process-based or statistical data-driven), with the recent technological advancements and integration of machine learning and hybrid process-based/statistical models. Lake ice modeling enhances our understanding of lake dynamics and allows for projections under future climate warming scenarios. To encourage the merging of technological innovation within limnological research of the less-studied winter period, we have accumulated both essential details on the history and uses of contemporary sampling, remote sensing, and modeling techniques. We crafted 100 questions in the field of winter limnology that aim to facilitate the cross-pollination of intensive and extensive modes of study to broaden knowledge of the winter period.

Water Resources Research

Geohydrology of the stratified-drift aquifer system in the lower Sixmile Creek and Willseyville Creek trough, Tompkins County, New York

In 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tompkins County Planning Department began a series of studies of the stratified-drift aquifers in Tompkins County to provide geohydrologic data for planners to develop a strategy to manage and protect their water resources. This aquifer study in lower Sixmile Creek and Willseyville Creek trough is the second in a series of aquifer studies in Tompkins County. The study area is within the northern area of the Appalachian Plateau and extends about 9 miles from the boundary between Tompkins County and Tioga County in the south to just south of the City of Ithaca in the north. In lower Sixmile Creek and Willseyville Creek trough, confined sand and gravel aquifers comprise the major water-bearing units while less extensive unconfined units form minor aquifers. About 600 people who live in lower Sixmile Creek and Willseyville Creek trough rely on groundwater from the stratified-drift aquifer system. In addition, water is used by non-permanent residents such as staff at commercial facilities. The estimated total groundwater withdrawn for domestic use is about 45,000 gallons per day (gal/d) or 0.07 cubic foot per second (ft3/s) based on an average water use of 75 gal/d per person for self-supplied water systems in New York. Scouring of bedrock in the preglacial lower Sixmile Creek and Willseyville Creek valleys by glaciers and subglacial meltwaters truncated hillside spurs, formed U-shaped, transverse valley profiles, smoothed valley walls, and deepened the valleys by as much as 300 feet (ft), forming a continuous trough. The unconsolidated deposits in the study area consist mostly of glacial drift, both unstratified drift (till) and stratified drift (laminated lake, deltaic, and glaciofluvial sediments), as well as some post-glacial stratified sediments (lake-bottom sediments that were deposited in reservoirs, peat and muck that were deposited in wetlands, and alluvium deposited by streams). Multiple advances and retreats of the ice in the study area resulted in several sequences of various types of glacial deposits. A large moraine (Valley Heads Moraine) dominates the southern part of the study area, a large delta dominates the central part, and ground moraine (mostly till) dominates the northern part. Glacial sediments in the center of the lower Sixmile Creek and Willseyville Creek trough typically range from 150 to 200 ft but can be greater than 300 ft in some places. Where the sediments are composed of sand and gravel they form aquifers. In most parts of the lower Sixmile Creek and Willseyville Creek trough, there is an upper and a basal confined aquifer. However, underlying the central parts of the Brooktondale delta, there are as many as four confined aquifers, whereas in the northern part of the study area, only one extensive confined aquifer is present. The major sources of recharge to these confined aquifers are (1) direct infiltration of precipitation where confined aquifers crop out at land surface (mostly along the western trough wall in the southern and central parts of the study area and, to a lesser degree, along the eastern trough wall); (2) unchanneled surface and subsurface runoff from adjacent upland areas that seeps into the aquifer along the western trough walls; (3) subsurface flow from underlying till or bedrock at the lateral contacts at trough walls; (4) adjacent fine-grained stratified drift, especially when the aquifer is pumped; and (5) discharge from bedrock at the bottom and sides of the trough. In the central part of the study area, the surficial coarse-grained sediments (sand and gravel) comprise a delta near Brooktondale and form a small unconfined aquifer (0.3 square mile). Although much of the upper part of the delta has been removed by several aggregate mining operations, sufficient amounts of sand and gravel remain in most places to form a thin unconfined aquifer. The major sources of recharge to the unconfined aquifer are (1)

Scientific Investigations Report

Integrated modeling of dynamic marsh feedbacks and evolution under sea-level rise in a mesotidal estuary (Plum Island, MA, USA)

Around the world, wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) depends on different factors including tidal regimes, topography, creeks and estuary geometry, sediment availability, vegetation type, etc. The Plum Island estuary (PIE) is a mesotidal wetland system on the east coast of the United States. This research applied a newly updated Hydro-MEM (integrated hydrodynamic-marsh) model to assess the impacts of intermediate-low (50 cm), intermediate (1 m), and intermediate-high (1.5 m) SLR on marsh evolution by the year 2100. Model advancements include capturing vegetation change, inorganic and below and aboveground organic matter portion of marsh platform accretion, and mudflat creation. Although the results indicate a low vulnerability marsh at the PIE, the vegetation changes from high to low marsh under all SLR scenarios (2%–22%), with the higher bounds belonging to higher rise scenarios. Lower SLR produces more productive marsh (13% gain in high productivity regions), whereas the highest SLR scenario causes increased tidal inundation, which leads to loss in productivity (12% change from high to low productivity regions), generation of mudflats (17% of the domain land), and marsh migration to higher lands. Sensitive nonlinear tidal flow changes, which may be increased or decreased with SLR as a result of mudflat creation, marsh migration, and bottom friction change, emphasize the importance of integrated modeling approaches that include dynamic marsh feedbacks in hydrodynamic modeling and varying hydrodynamic effects on the marsh system.

Massachusetts

Effects of three high-flow experiments on the Colorado River ecosystem downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

Three high-flow experiments (HFEs) were conducted by the U.S. Department of the Interior at Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, in March 1996, November 2004, and March 2008. These experiments, also known as artificial or controlled floods, were large-volume, scheduled releases of water from Glen Canyon Dam that were designed to mimic some aspects of pre-dam Colorado River seasonal flooding. The goal of these experiments was to determine whether high flows could be used to benefit important physical and biological resources in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park that had been affected by the operation of Glen Canyon Dam. Efforts such as HFEs that seek to maintain and restore downstream resources are undertaken by the U.S. Department of the Interior under the auspices of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992 (GCPA; title XVIII, secs. 1801-1809, of Public Law 102-575). Scientists conducted a wide range of monitoring and research activities before, during, and after the experiments. Initially, research efforts focused on whether HFEs could be used to rebuild and maintain Grand Canyon sandbars, which provide camping beaches for hikers and whitewater rafters, create habitats potentially used by native fish and other wildlife, and are the source of windborne sand that may help to protect some archaeological resources from weathering and erosion. As scientists gained a better understanding of how HFEs affect the physical environment, research efforts expanded to include additional investigations about the effects of HFEs on biological resources, such as native fishes, nonnative sports fishes, riverside vegetation, and the aquatic food web. The chapters that follow summarize and synthesize for decisionmakers and the public what has been learned about HFEs to provide a framework for implementing similar future experiments. This report is a product of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP), a Federal initiative authorized to ensure that the primary mandate of the GCPA (GCPA sec. 1802 (a)) is met through advances in information and resource management. The program and its research efforts focus on a study area that encompasses the Colorado River corridor from the forebay of Glen Canyon Dam to the western boundary of Grand Canyon National Park, which is identified as the Colorado River ecosystem elsewhere in this report. The study area includes the approximately 16-mile river corridor between the dam and Lees Ferry within Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and the entire 277-river mile corridor downstream from Lees Ferry and within Grand Canyon National Park. The U.S. Geological Survey's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) is responsible for the scientific monitoring and research efforts of the GCDAMP, including the preparation of this report. The GCMRC gratefully acknowledges the contributions of those scientists with Federal and State resource-management agencies, academic institutions, and private consulting firms who undertook much of the research presented in the chapters that follow.

Circular

Evaluation of a mass-balance approach to determine consumptive water use in northeastern Illinois

A principal component of evaluating and managing water use is consumptive use. This is the portion of water withdrawn for a particular use, such as residential, which is evaporated, transpired, incorporated into products or crops, consumed by humans or livestock, or otherwise removed from the immediate water environment. The amount of consumptive use may be estimated by a water (mass)-balance approach; however, because of the difficulty of obtaining necessary data, its application typically is restricted to the facility scale. The general governing mass-balance equation is: Consumptive use = Water supplied - Return flows . This study explored a mass-balance field-based computation of consumptive use in a residential setting at the scale of a sanitary sewer service area (sewershed). In addition, the feasibility (cost and difficulty) and relative uncertainties (accuracies) associated with applying the approach at this scale were evaluated. The study was conducted during 2011–13 within a 3.5-square mile (mi 2 ) sewershed confined to a predominantly residential area of Elk Grove Village, Illinois. Following background evaluation of the geohydrologic setting, sewershed infrastructure, and possible components of supplied and returned water, the identified primary components were 1. public water deliveries by the Elk Grove Village Department of Public Works, 2. self-served groundwater withdrawals in an included unincorporated neighborhood with public sanitary sewer service, 3. return flows to the sanitary sewer system, and 4. direct return of water discharged from swimming pools to Salt Creek. Water volumes principally were reported for deliveries, measured for sanitary sewer returns by using an acoustic Doppler current-velocity meter, and estimated for domestic withdrawals and swimming pool discharges to storm sewers. All water volumes required some degree of estimation. Observation wells were installed adjacent to sewer pipelines (lines) to determine the depth of the water table relative to that of the sewer lines and to collect water samples for detection of optical brighteners, as they are routinely discharged as clotheswashing waste to sanitary sewers. These data provided qualitative information on gains (inflow and infiltration) and losses (exfiltration) of sewer flow by pipe leakage, which might otherwise not be considered in the sewer flow return measurements. Hydrographs of sewer flow also were evaluated to identify and estimate storm-associated inputs to sewer flow. The volume of sanitary sewer return flow (778 million gallons per year [Mgal/yr]) was determined to substantially exceed the volume of supplied water (566 Mgal/yr), thus, for this study setting, voiding the utility of the applied mass-balance approach for estimating consumptive water use. Mass-balance components, including sanitary sewer flow and supplied-water use, were estimated within reasonable limits of uncertainty. Evidence of a water table that is typically shallower than the area’s sewer lines, yet is sometimes depressed near more deeply buried sewer lines, suggests groundwater infiltration into the sewers contributes to the excess volume of return flow. Technical obstacles and project resources precluded accurate quantification of infiltration volumes and other gains and losses to sanitary sewer flow. As estimated from various simplified methods, a minimum of 26 percent of return flow measured in the sanitary sewer represented groundwater infiltration and stormwater inflow; separately, about 2 percent of return flow was estimated as inflow. On the basis of the alternative winter base-rate method, consumptive use in the sewershed was estimated as 13 percent, which compares favorably with that used by the State of Illinois for Lake Michigan allocation accounting (10 percent) and other States and Canadian Provinces in the Great Lakes region (generally 10-15 percent). The study also provided other findings considered useful to studies of water use and to performance evaluation of sanitary sewer infrastructure. In urban residential settings, the comparatively small volumes of nonpublic sources of water (self-supplied) and direct (nonsanitary) return flow potentially can be ignored in the estimation of consumptive use. An acoustic Doppler current-velocity meter can be used in sanitary sewers to accurately measure discharge and reasonably estimate storm-associated inflows. Hourly to daily patterns of water use can be readily identified and quantified in the return flow record for the sanitary sewers. Relative volumes of infiltration gains (and exfiltration losses) can be substantial, even in sewer systems of communities making significant investments in system upgrades to limit sewer line leakage. Monitoring of optical brighteners in groundwater (and potentially in sanitary sewer flow) can provide a useful means of identifying probable leakage from (and to) sewer lines. Accurate quantification of gains and losses to sanitary sewer flow at the sewershed scale will require additional research effort and technical advances. Under ideal conditions, accurate quantification of consumptive use at the sewershed scale by the described mass-balance approach might be possible. Under most prevailing conditions, quantification likely would be more costly and time consuming than that of the present study, given the freely contributed technical support of the host community and relatively appropriate conditions of the study area. Essentials to quantification of consumptive use are a fully cooperative community, storm and sanitary sewers that are separate, and newer sewer infrastructure and (or) a robust program for limiting infiltration, exfiltration, and inflow.

Illinois

Morphological computation of dune evolution with equilibrium and non-equilibrium sediment-transport models

This paper presents an exploratory study that comprises the implementation and comparison of different approaches and parameterization of sediment transport mechanisms in a process-based morphological model for simulating river dunes. The purpose of this study was to assess the underlying physical processes associated with sediment transport and dune evolution simulated by the model with two different bedload transport models: a non-equilibrium approach considering saltation distance and an equilibrium approach with the incorporation of the effect of the local bed slope. The advancement of this study is that it comprised detailed analysis of the bed shear stress and sediment transport over a dune during time varying flows, comparing both transport models and revealing distinctive transient features of bedload transport and dune evolution. We also improved a non-equilibrium transport model by incorporating a formulation for sediment saltation distance as a length-scale. Using both sediment transport approaches, the morphological model was applied to replicate a large-scale field experiment. Notably, the model yielded the quasi-equilibrium dune feature reasonably well using either sediment-transport formulation. However, detailed analysis of simulated spatial and temporal features of sediment transport and the dune evolution process were found to be noticeably different. Even though both sediment transport mechanisms appear to work adequately at a basic level, the major difference between the two approaches is the underlying transport process over the dunes and time-scale of the dune evolution process.

Water Resources Research

Ground-water resources of Snohomish County, Washington

Snohomish County comprises an east-west strip, six townships wide, extending 60 miles from the eastern shore of Puget Sound to the drainage divide of the Cascade Mountains. Topographically, the eastern two-thirds of the county varies frown hills and low mountain spurs at the west to the continuous high, maturely carved mountains of the Cascade Range at the east. The western third of the county lies in the Puget Sound lowland section: it is made up largely of unconsolidated deposits, as contrasted with the hard rocks of the mountain section. High-level deposits of glacial debris in some places form a transitional ramp from the lowlands to the mountain topography; in other places the transition is abrupt. The principal rivers--the Snohomish, Skykomish, Stillaguamish, and Sauk--drain westward and northwestward to Puget Sound. The Puget Sound lowland, with its extensions up the river valleys, is economically the important part. of the county. Within that part., ground-water development is of particular importance. The climate is equable and dominantly oceanic, with an average of about 32 h. of rainfall annually, but with a pronounced dry season from June to September. A mean annual temperature of 52 F, a growing season of more than 200 days, and a variety of good soils form a setting in which supplemental irrigation can at least double the average crop production. Within the coastal lowland, plateau segments 200 to 600 ft or more in altitude are separated by flat-bottomed, alluviated river gorges. The river flats in some eases represent the surface of as much as 500 to 600 ft of glacial and alluvial deposits backfilled into canyonlike arms of the aneestral drainage system. The plateau segments are formed of the till-smoothed remnants of bedrock or the tabular segments of Pleistocene deposits. The Pleistocene deposits consist, above sea level, of about 200 ft of Admiralty clay and as much as 1,000 ft of deposits of the Vashon glaciation. The latter include as much as 300 ft of either clay or sand units of advance outwash, up to 150 ft of till, and variable thicknesses of outwash-terrace and train material. The Admiralty clay is composed largely of clayey materials without important quantities of ground water. Similar clayey sediments are known to continue downward for more than 1,000 ft below sea level. The sand unit and, to a lesser extent, the clay unit, are largely advance outwash of the Vashon glaciation. They are water bearing, and the position of their ground-water reservoirs--in flat-shaped bodies perched on the Admiralty clay beneath the plateau surfaces and slopes--makes them particularly susceptible to useful development. The till is a persistent ground-moraine deposit that mantles most of the area of the plateau segments and passes beneath much of the outwash and alluvium of the valleys. The till is a great vaster of precipitation; it. sheds off to the creeks much water that would otherwise recharge the ground-water reservoirs. A small amount of water percolates irregularly into and through the till or accumulates in the soil zones on top, where it is tapped by a great many 'hardpan' wells of small yield. Outwash terraces of gravels and sands, where they lie below the local water table, carry large quantities of ground water. The alluvial materials of the river valleys are good aquifers, but the water is iron bearing in many places and is saline in places in the lower parts of the Snohomish and Stillaguamish Valleys. At present, no good aquifers are known to exist in the bedrock formations. The metamorphic, granitic, and volcanic rocks of the mountainous parts of the county are largely nonpermeable. The Tertiary strata, which underlie the coastal lowland at depth and crop out about its inner margin, contain little or no water, and that which is present is usually of poor quality. The chemical quality of the ground waters is in general excellent. The iron- bearing water of the alluvial valleys is the princ

Water Supply Paper

Improvements in the use of aquatic herbicides and establishment of future research directions

Peer-reviewed literature over the past 20 years identifies significant changes and improvements in chemical control strategies used to manage nuisance submersed vegetation. The invasive exotic plants hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata L.f. Royle) and Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) continue to spread and remain the plant species of greatest concern for aquatic resource managers at the national scale. Emerging exotic weeds of regional concern such as egeria (Egeria densa Planch.), curlyleaf pondweed (Potamogeton crispus L.), and hygrophila (Hygrophila polysperma (Roxb.) T. Anders), as well as native plants such as variable watermilfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum Michx), and cabomba (Cabomba caroliniana Gray) are invasive outside their home ranges. In addition, there is always the threat of new plant introductions such as African elodea (Lagarosiphon major (Ridley) Moss) or narrow-leaf anacharis (Egeria najas Planchon). The registration of the bleaching herbicide fluridone in the mid 1980s for whole-lake and large-scale management stimulated numerous lines of research involving reduction of use rates, plant selectivity, residue monitoring, and impacts on fisheries. In addition to numerous advances, the specificity of fluridone for a single plant enzyme led to the first documented case of herbicide resistance in aquatic plant management. The resistance of hydrilla to fluridone has stimulated a renewed interest by industry and others in the registration of alternative modes of action for aquatic use. These newer chemistries tend to be enzyme-specific compounds with favorable non-target toxicity profiles. Registration efforts have been facilitated by increased cooperation between key federal government agencies that have aquatic weed control and research responsibilities, and regulators within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). We reviewed past and current research efforts to identify areas in need of further investigation and to establish priorities for future research directions in chemical management of submersed plants. The priorities we identified include: (A) improving methods for evaluating non-target impacts of herbicides with an emphasis on threatened and endangered species, or species of special concern; (B) improving herbicide performance in flowing-water environments, including irrigation canals; (C) screening and developing new herbicides to supplement fluridone for large-scale or whole-lake management approaches; (D) screening and developing new organic algaecides to supplement the use of copper-based compounds; (E) developing risk assessment tools to educate the public on the risks of invasive species and chemical management options; (F) increasing cooperative research with ecologists and fisheries scientists to evaluate the long-term impacts of invasive species introductions and herbicide programs on native plant assemblages, water quality, and fish populations; and (G) improving the integration of chemical control technology with other aquatic plant management disciplines. While circumstances may dictate setting new priorities or dropping current ones, the list we have generated represents our vision of the needs that will require the greatest focus over the next several years.

Conference Paper

Effects of advanced wastewater treatment on the quality of White River, Indiana

In 1983, the City of Indianapolis, Indiana, completed construction of advanced wastewater treatment (AWT) systems to enlarge and upgrade its existing Belmont Road and Southport Road secondary treatment plants. A nonparametric statistical procedure, a modified form of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank-sum test, was used to test for trends in water quality at two upstream and two downstream sites on White River and at the two treatment plants. Results comparing the pre- (1978-1980) and post- (1983-1988) AWT periods show statistically significant improvements in the quality of the treated effluent and of the White River downstream from the plants. Water quality at sites upstream from the city was relatively constant during the period of study. Total ammonia (as N) decreased 14.6 mg/L and BOD5 (five-day biochemical oxygen demand) decreased 10 to 19 mg/L in the two effluents. Total ammonia in the river downstream from the plants decreased 0.8 to 1.9 mg/L and BOD5 decreased 2.3 to 2.5 mg/L. Nitrate (as N) increased 14.5 mg/L in the plant effluents and 2.0 to 2.4 mg/L in the river because of in-plant nitrification. Dissolved oxygen concentration in the river increased about 3 mg/L because of reduced oxygen demand for nitrification and biochemical oxidation processes.

Indiana

Technological advances in suspended‐sediment surrogate monitoring

Surrogate technologies to continuously monitor suspended sediment show promise toward supplanting traditional data collection methods requiring routine collection and analysis of water samples. Commercially available instruments operating on bulk optic (turbidity), laser optic, pressure difference, and acoustic backscatter principles are evaluated based on cost, reliability, robustness, accuracy, sample volume, susceptibility to biological fouling, and suitable range of mass concentration and particle size distribution. In situ turbidimeters are widely used. They provide reliable data where the point measurements can be reliably correlated to the river's mean cross section concentration value, effects of biological fouling can be minimized, and concentrations remain below the sensor's upper measurement limit. In situ laser diffraction instruments have similar limitations and can cost 6 times the approximate $5000 purchase price of a turbidimeter. However, laser diffraction instruments provide volumetric‐concentration data in 32 size classes. Pressure differential instruments measure mass density in a water column, thus integrating substantially more streamflow than a point measurement. They are designed for monitoring medium‐to‐large concentrations, are generally unaffected by biological fouling, and cost about the same as a turbidimeter. However, their performance has been marginal in field applications. Acoustic Doppler profilers use acoustic backscatter to measure suspended sediment concentrations in orders of magnitude more streamflow than do instruments that rely on point measurements. The technology is relatively robust and generally immune to effects of biological fouling. Cost of a single‐frequency device is about double that of a turbidimeter. Multifrequency arrays also provide the potential to resolve concentrations by clay silt versus sand size fractions. Multifrequency hydroacoustics shows the most promise for revolutionizing collection of continuous suspended sediment data by instruments that require only periodic calibration for correlation to mean concentrations in river cross sections. Broad application of proven suspended sediment surrogate technologies has the potential to revolutionize fluvial sediment monitoring. Once applied, benefits could be enormous, providing for safer, more frequent and consistent, arguably more accurate, and ultimately less expensive sediment data for managing the world's sedimentary resources.

Water Resources Research

Stochastic programming with a joint chance constraint model for reservoir refill operation considering flood risk

Reservoir refill operation modeling attempts to maximize a set of benefits while minimizing risks. The benefits and risks can be in opposition to each other, such as having enough water for hydropower generation while leaving enough room for flood protection. In addition to multiple objects, the uncertainty of streamflow can make decision making difficult. This paper develops a stochastic optimization model for reservoir refill operation with the objective of maximizing the expected synthesized energy production for a cascade system of hydropower stations while considering flood risk. Streamflow uncertainty is addressed by discretized streamflow scenarios and flood risk is controlled by a joint chance constraint restricting the occurrence probability. With the variability of flood risk level, two advancing refill scenarios for exploring operation benefit are presented. Scenario I loosens the current stagewise storage bounds conditions and allows advancing reservoir refills but keeps the flood risk level the same as the refill policies obtained under the current storage bounds. Scenario II keeps the current storage bounds unchanged but allows increases in flood risk level. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiluodu cascade system of reservoirs in China and investigates the optimal refill policies obtained by both scenarios. Compared with the benchmark obtained under the current storage bounds and lowest flood risk level, the results show (1) the synthesized energy production can be improved by 2.13% without changing the flood risk level under Scenario I, and (2) the synthesized energy production can also be increased by 0.21% at the expense of increasing the flood risk level by 4.4% when Scenario II is employed. As Scenario I produces higher benefit and lower risk than Scenario II, it is recommended to loosen the current stagewise storage bounds but to keep the flood risk level unchanged during refill operations.

Xiluodu Cascade Reservoir

Bedload-surrogate monitoring technologies

Advances in technologies for quantifying bedload fluxes and in some cases bedload size distributions in rivers show promise toward supplanting traditional physical samplers and sampling methods predicated on the collection and analysis of physical bedload samples. Four workshops held from 2002 to 2007 directly or peripherally addressed bedload-surrogate technologies, and results from these workshops have been compiled to evaluate the state-of-the-art in bedload monitoring. Papers from the 2007 workshop are published for the first time with this report. Selected research and publications since the 2007 workshop also are presented. Traditional samplers used for some or all of the last eight decades include box or basket samplers, pan or tray samplers, pressure-difference samplers, and trough or pit samplers. Although still useful, the future niche of these devices may be as a means for calibrating bedload-surrogate technologies operating with active- and passive-type sensors, in many cases continuously and automatically at a river site. Active sensors include acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), sonar, radar, and smart sensors. Passive sensors include geophones (pipes or plates) in direct contact with the streambed, hydrophones deployed in the water column, impact columns, and magnetic detection. The ADCP for sand and geophones for gravel are currently the most developed techniques, several of which have been calibrated under both laboratory and field conditions. Although none of the bedload-surrogate technologies described herein are broadly accepted for use in large-scale monitoring programs, several are under evaluation. The benefits of verifying and operationally deploying selected bedload-surrogate monitoring technologies could be considerable, providing for more frequent and consistent, less expensive, and arguably more accurate bedload data obtained with reduced personal risk for use in managing the world's sedimentary resources. Twenty-six papers are published for the first time as part of the 2007 International Bedload-Surrogate Monitoring Workshop (listed in table 2 in alphabetical order by name of first author). Sequential page numbering of the papers begins on page 38, after the last page of the report. The report plus the 26 papers comprise 430 pages.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrologic effects of artificial-recharge experiments with reclaimed water at East Meadow, Long Island, New York

Artificial recharge experiments were conducted at East Meadow, Long Island, New York, from October 1982 through January 1984 to evaluate the degree of groundwater mounding and the chemical effects of artificially replenishing the groundwater system with tertiary-treated wastewater. More than 800 million gallons of treated effluent was returned to the upper glacial aquifer through recharge basins and injection wells in the 15-month period. Reclaimed water was provided by the Cedar Creek advanced wastewater treatment facility in Wantagh, 6 miles away. The chlorinated effluent was pumped to the recharge facility, where it was fed to basins by gravity flow and to injection wells by pumps. Observations during the recharge tests indicate that the two most significant factors in limiting the rate of infiltration through the basin floor were the recharge test duration and quality of reclaimed water. Head buildup in the aquifer beneath the basins ranged from 4.3 to 6.7 ft, depending on the quantity and duration of water application. Head buildup near the injection wells within the aquifer ranged from 0.3 to 1.2 ft. Recharge basins provided a more effective means of moving large quantities of reclaimed water into the aquifer than injection wells. Results of 3-day and 176-day ponding tests in two basins indicate that reclaimed water is relatively unchanged chemically by percolation through the unsaturated zone because: (1) the sand and gravel of the upper glacial aquifer is unreactive, (2) the water moves to the water table rapidly, and (3) the water is highly treated before recharge. The quality of water in the aquifer zones affected by recharge improved, on the whole. Groundwater concentrations of nitrate nitrogen and several low molecular weight hydrocarbons, decreased to well within drinking water standards as a direct result of recharge. Sodium and chloride concentrations increased above background levels as a result of recharge but remained well within drinking water standards and the New York State effluent standards established for this groundwater recharge study. (Lantz-PTT)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulation assessment of the direct‐push permeameter for characterizing vertical variations in hydraulic conductivity

The direct‐push permeameter (DPP) is a tool for the in situ characterization of hydraulic conductivity (K) in shallow, unconsolidated formations. This device, which consists of a short screened section with a pair of pressure transducers near the screen, is advanced into the subsurface with direct‐push technology. K is determined through a series of injection tests conducted between advancements. Recent field work by Butler et al. (2007) has shown that the DPP holds great potential for describing vertical variations in K at an unprecedented level of detail, accuracy and speed. In this paper, the fundamental efficacy of the DPP is evaluated through a series of numerical simulations. These simulations demonstrate that the DPP can provide accurate K information under conditions commonly faced in the field. A single DPP test provides an effective K for the domain immediately surrounding the interval between the injection screen and the most distant pressure transducer. Features that are thinner than that interval can be quantified by reducing the vertical distance between successive tests and analyzing the data from all tests simultaneously. A particular advantage of the DPP is that, unlike most other single borehole techniques, a low‐K skin or a clogged screen has a minimal impact on the K estimate. In addition, the requirement that only steady‐shape conditions be attained allows for a dramatic reduction in the time required for each injection test.

Water Resources Research

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Composites

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is a broad-band scanner with four to six bands, depending on the model. The AVHRR senses in the visible, near-, middle-, and thermal- infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. This sensor is carried on a series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES), beginning with the Television InfraRed Observation Satellite (TIROS-N) in 1978. Since 1989, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) has been mapping the vegetation condition of the United States and Alaska using satellite information from the AVHRR sensor. The vegetation condition composites, more commonly called greenness maps, are produced every week using the latest information on the growth and condition of the vegetation. One of the most important aspects of USGS greenness mapping is the historical archive of information dating back to 1989. This historical stretch of information has allowed the USGS to determine a 'normal' vegetation condition. As a result, it is possible to compare the current week's vegetation condition with normal vegetation conditions. An above normal condition could indicate wetter or warmer than normal conditions, while a below normal condition could indicate colder or dryer than normal conditions. The interpretation of departure from normal will depend on the season and geography of a region.

Fact Sheet

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts

Young (<7 Ma) gold deposits and active geothermal systems of the Great Basin: Enigmas, questions, and exploration potential

Young gold systems in the Great Basin (£ 7 Ma), though not as well studied as their older counterparts, comprise a rapidly growing and in some ways controversial group. The gold inventory for these systems has more than doubled in the last 5 years from roughly 370 tonnes (12 Moz) to 890 tonnes (29 Moz). Although these deposits are characterized by low grades, tonnages can be high and stripping ratios low, and they have been mined profitably, as exemplified by Florida Canyon and Hycroft. Active geothermal systems in the Great Basin also comprise a rapidly growing group, as evidenced by a number of recent discoveries of geothermal groundwater and a more than 50% increase in electricity production capacity from these systems in the last 5 years. Many young gold deposits are closely associated with active geothermal systems, suggesting that gold deposits may be forming today in the Great Basin. Measured or estimated geothermal reservoir temperatures commonly approach or exceed 200∞C, and other characteristics and processes (advanced argillic caps, hydrothermal eruption breccias) of these young deposits resemble those of nearby Tertiary precious metal deposits. Nonetheless, many young gold systems, especially in Nevada, are not associated with coeval igneous rocks. Similarly, almost all electricity-grade geothermal systems in Nevada are not associated with Quaternary silicic volcanic rocks, and have lower temperature gradients, lower 3He/4He ratios, and lower dissolved trace element concentrations than most magmatic-heated geothermal systems elsewhere in the world. The increasing economic significance of young gold deposits and active geothermal systems justifies more research to better understand their origins, particularly because in some aspects they remain enigmatic and controversial. Are young gold deposits in Nevada truly amagmatic, or have they received metal and fluid contributions from magmas deeper within the crust? Has gold in these deposits been remobilized from older gold mineralization? Current research is investigating these and other questions to improve our genetic understanding of these young gold systems, which in turn can lead to improved exploration targeting. The recent rapid growth in resources for both young gold deposits and geothermal systems underscores their underdeveloped exploration potential. Even though many young gold deposits exhibit relatively shallow hot-springs-style mineralization, their young age may preclude exposure by erosion. Uplift along active normal faults has exposed some deposits (e.g., Florida Canyon, Dixie Comstock, Wind Mountain), but in other areas, such as the Walker Lane, where strike-slip faulting is prevalent, the opportunities for exposure can be limited. Many active geothermal systems are also concealed below the surface in that hot springs or steam vents may be absent above areas of thermal groundwater. With sources of energy to support mine production becoming more problematic, the potential advantages of simultaneously exploring for young gold deposits and spatially associated geothermal systems are becoming more apparent. Exploration methods recently proven effective in geothermal exploration that can be adapted to gold exploration include temperature surveys, hyperspectral remote sensing, geophysical surveys, water analyses, and detailed mapping of geothermal-related features and related fault systems.

Conference Paper