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Keeping Hawai‘i's forest birds one step ahead of disease in a warming world

Hawai‘i’s high-elevation forests provide a critical refuge from disease for native forest birds. However, global warming is facilitating the encroachment of mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit into increasingly higher elevations of remaining refugia, threatening the viability of the forest birds across the islands. Multiple management actions to address the threat of disease have been proposed, but there is an urgent need to identify which actions (or series of actions) should be prioritized as most effective, most cost-efficient, and most likely to produce results at a pace sufficient to stay ahead of climate change. A group of scientists, managers, and policy makers convened to evaluate a set of possible conservation strategies under a structured decision-making framework, focusing on management of Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, which was established to protect native Hawai‘ian forest birds. The biological models necessary to evaluate the set of conservation actions identified are not yet available, but the process of developing the framework for the decision analysis was immensely valuable for framing the issues and identifying information needs. Lessons learned from Hakalau Forest will be applicable to many other areas in Hawai‘i facing the same threat to forest birds.

Hawaii

An overview of the world’s plovers

Plovers of the genus Charadrius and their close allies are a diverse group, numbering 40 species, many with subspecies. They breed on all continents except Antarctica, in open, sparsely vegetated habitats of tundra and grasslands, and along shores of oceans, rivers, and inland lakes. Most are migratory, especially those breeding in arctic and temperate regions; others are partial migrants or sedentary. On migration, they are poorly studied and do not always correspond to the typical shorebird (i.e., sandpiper) pattern characterized by dense flocks concentrating at a few staging areas. Their foraging ecologies are rather uniform in that all species search visually for prey using a “run-stop-peck” maneuver. Breeding birds defend nesting and foraging territories while nonbreeding birds forage in loose flocks, which may stem from individuals minimizing interference with conspecifics while enhancing benefits of shared vigilance for predators. In breeding, they are conservative, laying two to four eggs at daily or longer intervals; replacement clutches are common, especially in species with prolonged breeding seasons. Precocial young hatch after comparatively long incubation that is correlated with development of neural centers associated with vision. Their mating systems are a mix of social monogamy and biparental care, with frequent sequential polygamy, especially in temperate and tropical taxa that breed for extended periods. Population sizes vary over several orders of magnitude; several species are highly endangered. Other species are abundant and widely distributed, although their populations may also be in decline. Regardless of their status, most plovers occupy habitats throughout the year that put them at conservation risk owing to anthropogenic factors including climate change, human disturbance, habitat loss, and predation. In this book, we draw from the expertise of an international group of researchers to outline the ecologies, behaviors, and challenges of plovers throughout the annual cycle so that decision makers can be most successful in their endeavors to conserve and manage populations.

Book chapter

Assessment of undiscovered hydrocarbon resources of sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction The main objective of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National and Global Petroleum Assessment Project is to assess the potential for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources of the United States and the world (U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, 2012). The USGS updated assessments that were completed during the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team, 2000) and conducted new assessments in areas around the world that were not previously examined (U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, 2012). These assessments used the latest geology-based assessment methodology for conventional oil and gas resources. The new assessments are available at the USGS website, ( http://energy.usgs.gov/OilGas/AssessmentsData/WorldPetroleumAssessment.aspx ) . As part of this project, the USGS assessed 13 geologic provinces located in sub-Saharan Africa (U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, 2012). Coastal provinces were extended offshore to water depths ranging from 2,000 to 4,000 meters (m). Within these 13 geologic provinces 18 assessment units (figs. 1, 2) were identified. The west Africa provinces are (1) the Senegal, containing the passive-margin Senegal Basin of Middle Jurassic to Holocene age; (2) the West African Coastal, characterized by rift, passive-margin, and transform tectonics; (3) the Gulf of Guinea, characterized by transform tectonics; (4) the Niger Delta, containing more than 9,100 m of sedimentary rock and recent sediments; (5) the West-Central Coastal, which contains the Aptian salt basin, is dominated by both rift and sag tectonics, and includes the Congo Basin; and (6) the Orange River Coastal, containing more than 7,000 m of syn-rift and post-rift sedimentary rock. The West African Coastal Province was assessed for the first time, whereas the other five west Africa provinces were reassessed for the 2012 World Oil and Wandrey Gas Resource Assessment (fig. 1 of U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, 2012). More than 275 new oil and gas fields have been discovered in the six west Africa provinces (IHS Energy, 2008, 2009) since the USGS World Petroleum Assessment in 2000 (U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team, 2000). These provinces were assessed because of increased energy exploration activity and new oil and gas discoveries within the provinces. Seven provinces not assessed as part of the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team, 2000) were assessed by the USGS as part of the World Assessment 2012 (U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, 2012). These provinces are (1) the Chad Province, containing Cretaceous and Cenozoic-age lacustrine, continental, and minor marine rocks; (2) the Sud Province, containing Cretaceous and Paleogene age lacustrine, continental, and minor marine rocks; (3) the South Africa Coastal Province, which contains rift, transform, and passive-margin rocks; (4) the Mozambique Coastal Province, containing rift, drift, and passive-margin rocks; (5) the Morondava Province, which contains failed rift, drift, and passive-margin rocks; (6) the Tanzania Coastal Province, containing rift, drift, and passive-margin rocks; and (7) the Seychelles Province, which contains rift and drift rocks. At the time of this assessment 157 oil and gas fields had been discovered in the seven provinces (IHS Energy, 2009). These provinces were assessed because of increased interest and new oil and gas discoveries within the provinces. The assessment was geology-based and used the total petroleum system (TPS) concept. The geologic elements of a TPS are hydrocarbon source rocks (source rock maturation and hydrocarbon generation and migration), reservoir rocks (quality and distribution), and traps where hydrocarbon accumulates. Using these geologic criteria, 16 conventional total petroleum systems and 18 assessment units in the 13 provinces were defined. The undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources were assessed for all assessment units.

Data Series

International strategic mineral issues summary report– Tungsten

Scheelite and wolframite are the principal minerals currently mined for tungsten. Both occur in hard-rock deposits; wolframite is also recovered from placer deposits. Most current mine production of tungsten is from vein/stockwork, skarn, porphyry, and strata-bound deposits. Minor amounts are produced from disseminated, pegmatite, breccia, and placer deposits. Most tungsten is used to make tungsten carbide and tungsten alloys for use in machine tools and drilling equipment. Other important applications are in lamp filaments and cathodes, high-speed steels, textile dyes, paints, and catalysts. The world is well endowed with tungsten resources. China and the former Soviet Union have 8 of the world's 10 largest deposits; these 8 contain about half of the world's resources of tungsten. If economic conditions are suitable, world tungsten resources in known deposits and their extensions (categories R1 and R2), including economic, marginal, and subeconomic resources, are sufficient to permit world production to continue at 1995 levels until well into the 21st century. World tungsten resources in identified deposits and districts that are currently economically exploitable (category R1E) appear to be sufficient to meet world demand at 1995 levels only until the year 2007. However, the figure for resources of this kind does not include or reflect resources whose economic parameters are unknown in major producing areas in the former Soviet Union, China, and other nonmarket-economy countries and thus severely underestimates future tungsten availability. In 1995, China and the former Soviet Union accounted for over three-fourths of the world's mine production of tungsten. China alone produced about two-thirds of world output. Given its vast resources, China will likely maintain its prominent role in world tungsten supply. By the year 2020, changes in supply patterns are likely to result from declining output from individual deposits in Australia, Austria, and Portugal and the opening of new mines in Canada, China, and the United Kingdom.

Circular

Is “morphodynamic equilibrium” an oxymoron?

Morphodynamic equilibrium is a widely adopted yet elusive concept in the field of geomorphology of coasts, rivers and estuaries. Based on the Exner equation, an expression of mass conservation of sediment, we distinguish three types of equilibrium defined as static and dynamic, of which two different types exist. Other expressions such as statistical and quasi-equilibrium which do not strictly satisfy the Exner conditions are also acknowledged for their practical use. The choice of a temporal scale is imperative to analyse the type of equilibrium. We discuss the difference between morphodynamic equilibrium in the “real world” (nature) and the “virtual world” (model). Modelling studies rely on simplifications of the real world and lead to understanding of process interactions. A variety of factors affect the use of virtual-world predictions in the real world (e.g., variability in environmental drivers and variability in the setting) so that the concept of morphodynamic equilibrium should be mathematically unequivocal in the virtual world and interpreted over the appropriate spatial and temporal scale in the real world. We draw examples from estuarine settings which are subject to various governing factors which broadly include hydrodynamics, sedimentology and landscape setting. Following the traditional “tide-wave-river” ternary diagram, we summarize studies to date that explore the “virtual world”, discuss the type of equilibrium reached and how it relates to the real world.

Earth-Science Reviews

Geochemistry of Selected Coal Samples from Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua, Indonesia

Introduction Indonesia is an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands that stretches astride the equator for about 5,200 km in southeast Asia (figure 1) and includes major Cenozoic volcano-plutonic arcs, active volcanoes, and various related onshore and offshore basins. These magmatic arcs have extensive Cu and Au mineralization that has generated much exploration and mining in the last 50 years. Although Au and Ag have been mined in Indonesia for over 1000 years (van Leeuwen, 1994), it was not until the middle of the nineteenth century that the Dutch explored and developed major Sn and minor Au, Ag, Ni, bauxite, and coal resources. The metallogeny of Indonesia includes Au-rich porphyry Cu, porphyry Mo, skarn Cu-Au, sedimentary-rock hosted Au, epithermal Au, laterite Ni, and diamond deposits. For example, the Grasberg deposit in Papua has the world's largest gold reserves and the third-largest copper reserves (Sillitoe, 1994). Coal mining in Indonesia also has had a long history beginning with the initial production in 1849 in the Mahakam coal field near Pengaron, East Kalimantan; in 1891 in the Ombilin area, Sumatra, (van Leeuwen, 1994); and in South Sumatra in 1919 at the Bukit Asam mine (Soehandojo, 1989). Total production from deposits in Sumatra and Kalimantan, from the 19thth century to World War II, amounted to 40 million metric tons (Mt). After World War II, production declined due to various factors including politics and a boom in the world-wide oil economy. Active exploration and increased mining began again in the 1980's mainly through a change in Indonesian government policy of collaboration with foreign companies and the global oil crises (Prijono, 1989). This recent coal revival (van Leeuwen, 1994) has lead Indonesia to become the largest exporter of thermal (steam) coal and the second largest combined thermal and metallurgical (coking) coal exporter in the world market (Fairhead and others, 2006). The exported coal is desirable as it is low sulfur and ash (generally <1 and < 10 wt.%, respectively). Coal mining for both local use and for export has a very strong future in Indonesia although, at present, there are concerns about the strong need for a major revision in mining laws and foreign investment policies (Wahju, 2004; United States Embassy Jakarta, 2004). The World Coal Quality Inventory (WoCQI) program of the U.S. Geological Survey (Tewalt and others, 2005) is a cooperative project with about 50 countries (out of 70 coal-producing countries world-wide). The WoCQI initiative has collected and published extensive coal quality data from the world's largest coal producers and consumers. The important aspects of the WoCQI program are; (1) samples from active mines are collected, (2) the data have a high degree of internal consistency with a broad array of coal quality parameters, and (3) the data are linked to GIS and available through the world-wide-web. The coal quality parameters include proximate and ultimate analysis, sulfur forms, major-, minor-, and trace-element concentrations and various technological tests. This report contains geochemical data from a selected group of Indonesian coal samples from a range of coal types, localities, and ages collected for the WoCQI program.

Open-File Report

Historic and recent nesting records of Turkey Vultures in South Dakota

Present-day vultures are generally classified into two distinct groups: Old World vultures and new World vultures. The two groups share morphological and behavioral characters (e.g. scavenger diet, energy-efficient soaring, mostly featherless head), but historically the two groups were considered phylogenetically distant with long and independent histories (Rich 198., Wink 1995, Zhang et al. 2012). Old World vultures occur in the family Accipitridae and are closely related to hawks and eagles. New World Vultures occur in the family Cathartidae but their taxonomic placement has been controversial. New World vultures were previously allied with storks (Ciconiidae) but were usually placed within the order Falconiformes. Recent phylogenomic analyses using DNA sequencing suggest that new World vultures show no affinity with storks and support placement of New World vultures with other landbirds (in the order Accipitriformes, near Accipitridae) rather than with waterbirds (Hackett et al. 2008). Old World vultures presently are confined to Europe, Asia, and Africa, and New World vultures presently occur in North and South America.

South Dakota

Assessing mineral supply concentration from different perspectives through a case study of zinc

Increasing demand for nonfuel mineral commodities has increased concerns regarding the reliability of their supplies. “Criticality” assessments over the past decade have attempted to capture this concern through a set of indicators, the most common of which quantifies the risk associated with market concentration by applying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) to the world production of a given commodity by country in a given year. Although this approach is useful, it inherently assumes that all of world production is available to the market and is thus potentially at risk. In this analysis, the HHI, as well as HHI weighted by country governance, is calculated for mined and refined zinc using the standard approach of using all world production data and comparing that to the HHI when using the best estimate of what is available to the world market. The results indicate that although the HHI of both mined and refined zinc world production has increased markedly over the past decade, the HHI for what is available to the market for mined and refined zinc has remained relatively constant and low, which is indicative of minimal supply risk. This is mainly owing to the fact that a large and increasing share of the world’s mined and refined zinc production comes from China, but that production supplies domestic consumption as well as small amounts of exports. As a result, the zinc materials that are available to the world market outside of China are produced by a relatively large and diverse set of countries. Although these analyses are specific to zinc, they are likely to be comparable for other commodities of which the largest producers are also the largest consumers and highlight the importance of examining different perspectives in criticality assessments.

Mineral Economics

International strategic minerals inventory summary report; tin

The International Strategic Minerals Inventory tin inventory contains records for 56 major tin deposits and districts in 21 countries. These countries accounted for 98 percent of the 10 million metric tons of tin produced in the period 1934-87. Tin is a good alloying metal and is generally nontoxic, and its chief uses are as tinplate for tin cans and as solder in electronics. The 56 locations consist of 39 lode deposits and 17 placers and contain almost 7.5 million metric tons of tin in identified economic resources (R1E) and another 1.5 million metric tons of tin in other resource categories. Most of these resources are in major deposits that have been known for over a hundred years. Lode deposits account for 44 percent of the R1E and 87 percent of the resources in other categories. Placer deposits make up the remainder. Low-income and middle-income countries, including Bolivia and Brazil and countries along the Southeast Asian Tin Belt such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia account for 91 percent of the R1E resources of tin and for 61 percent of resources in other categories. The United States has less than 0.05 percent of the world's tin R1E in major deposits. Available data suggest that the Soviet Union may have about 4 percent of resources in this category. The industrial market economy countries of the United States, Japan, Federal Republic of Germany, and the United Kingdom are major consumers of tin, whereas the major tin-producing countries generally consume little tin. The Soviet Union and China are both major producers and consumers of tin. At the end of World War II, the four largest tin-producing countries (Bolivia, the Belgian Congo (Zaire), Nigeria, and Malaysia) produced over 80 percent of the world's tin. In 1986, the portion of production from the four largest producers (Malaysia, Brazil, Soviet Union, Indonesia) declined to about 55 percent, while the price of tin rose from about $1,500 to $18,000 per metric ton. In response to tin shortages during World War II, the United States began stockpiling refined tin metal from approximately 1946 to 1953 to ensure a strategic supply in the event of another war. Since World War II, there have been six International Tin Agreements to maintain price and supply stability between tin producers and consumers. Artificially high prices set by the tin-producing members and a tin glut brought on by independent producers like Brazil caused the collapse of the world tin market in late 1985; the International Tin Council exhausted its credit to support the market price. By the year 2025, Bolivia's underground lode mines will likely have insignificant production, as will those in the United Kingdom. Tin mines in the Southeast Asian Tin Belt will still be active. Brazil, which has risen from the eighth-ranked tin-producing country in 1982 to the largest producer in 1988, will likely be a major influence on world tin production well into the 21st century. The future mining activity of deposits presently inactive in Australia is impossible to predict.

Circular

Mineral commodity profiles: nitrogen

Overview -- Nitrogen (N) is an essential element of life and a part of all animal and plant proteins. As a part of the DNA and RNA molecules, nitrogen is an essential constituent of each individual's genetic blueprint. As an essential element in the chlorophyll molecule, nitrogen is vital to a plant's ability to photosynthesize. Some crop plants, such as alfalfa, peas, peanuts, and soybeans, can convert atmospheric nitrogen into a usable form by a process referred to as 'fixation.' Most of the nitrogen that is available for crop production, however, comes from decomposing animal and plant waste or from commercially produced fertilizers. Commercial fertilizers contain nitrogen in the form of ammonium and/or nitrate or in a form that is quickly converted to the ammonium or nitrate form once the fertilizer is applied to the soil. Ammonia is generally the source of nitrogen in fertilizers. Anhydrous ammonia is commercially produced by reacting nitrogen with hydrogen under high temperatures and pressures. The source of nitrogen is the atmosphere, which is almost 80 percent nitrogen. Hydrogen is derived from a variety of raw materials, which include water, and crude oil, coal, and natural gas hydrocarbons. Nitrogen-based fertilizers are produced from ammonia feedstocks through a variety of chemical processes. Small quantities of nitrates are produced from mineral resources principally in Chile. In 2002, anhydrous ammonia and other nitrogen materials were produced in more than 70 countries. Global ammonia production was 108 million metric tons (Mt) of contained nitrogen. With 28 percent of this total, China was the largest producer of ammonia. Asia contributed 46 percent of total world ammonia production, and countries of the former U.S.S.R. represented 13 percent. North America also produced 13 percent of the total; Western Europe, 9 percent; the Middle East, 7 percent; Central America and South America, 5 percent; Eastern Europe, 3 percent; and Africa and Oceania contributed the remaining 4 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003b, p. 1-4). In 2002, world ammonia exports were 13.1 Mt of contained nitrogen. Trinidad and Tobago (22 percent), Russia (18 percent), Ukraine (10 percent), and Indonesia (7 percent) accounted for 57 percent of the world total. The largest importing regions were North America with 36 percent of the total followed by Western Europe with 23 percent and Asia with 22 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003b, p. 5L-11). In 2002, world urea production was 51.4 Mt of contained nitrogen, and exports were 12.0 Mt of contained nitrogen. China and India, which were the two largest producing countries, accounted for 48 percent of world production. The United States and Canada produced about 10 percent of the total. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28 percent of total urea exports; Central America and South America, 27 percent; and Asia, North America, and Western Europe, 10 percent each. North America accounted for 36 percent of the total urea imports; Western Europe, 23 percent; and Asia, 22 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003f, p. 1-15). Ammonia production capacity in North America and Western Europe is projected to decline through 2004, and capacity in other world regions is projected to increase. Fluctuating natural gas prices are mainly responsible for the capacity decline in North America. Ammonia production capacity is continuing to shift to world regions that have abundant sources of natural gas, and away from those where costs (raw material, labor, environmental compliance) are higher.

Open-File Report

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas in the Arctic

Among the greatest uncertainties in future energy supply and a subject of considerable environmental concern is the amount of oil and gas yet to be found in the Arctic. By using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the United States Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle and concluded that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil may be found there, mostly offshore under less than 500 meters of water. Undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is largely concentrated in Russia. Oil resources, although important to the interests of Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient to substantially shift the current geographic pattern of world oil production.

Science

Worldwide Asbestos Supply and Consumption Trends from 1900 through 2003

This Circular updates and supersedes U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Report 03–083, "Worldwide Asbestos Supply and Consumption Trends from 1900 to 2000," with the addition of supply and consumption estimates and analysis from 2001 through 2003 and revisions to the consumption estimates for 1998 through 2000. The text from Open-File Report 03–083 also has been updated in this Circular to include revisions to and expansion of the time-series coverage. The use of asbestos is one of the most controversial issues surrounding the industrial minerals industry. Its carcinogenic nature, an overall lack of knowledge of minimum safe exposure levels, its widespread use for more than 100 years, and the long latency for the development of lung cancer and mesothelioma are the main contributing factors to these controversies. Another factor is that, despite decades of research, the mechanisms responsible for its carcinogenic properties are still largely unknown. The United States produced about 3.29 million metric tons (Mt) of asbestos and used approximately 31.5 Mt between 1900 and 2003. About half of this amount was used after 1960. In 2002, the last asbestos mine in the United States closed, marking the end of more than 110 years of U.S. asbestos production. Cumulative world production from 1900 through 2003 was about 181 Mt. If one assumes that unusually large stocks were not maintained and that world consumption roughly equaled production, then about half of the world production and consumption occurred between the end of 1976 and the end of 2003. The United States and Western European nations were the largest consumers of asbestos during the first two-thirds of the 20th century. They were surpassed by the collective production and consumption of Kazakhstan and Russia by the 1970s. After the onset of the health issues concerning asbestos in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the decline in world production and consumption began to be evident in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, a major user of asbestos, resulted in a significant decline in asbestos consumption and production in former Soviet-bloc countries. Consumption and production in Kazakhstan and Russia increased through 2003 from 2001, albeit to a much lower level than in the 1980s. In 2003, world consumption was estimated to be 2.11 Mt, about 45 percent that of 1980. Relatively few countries in Asia, the Middle East, South America, and the former Soviet Union remained as the leading users of asbestos. China was the leading consuming nation, using an estimated 492,000 metric tons (t) in 2003. China was followed, in decreasing order of consumption, by Russia (429,000 t), India (192,000 t), Kazakhstan (174,000 t), Ukraine (156,000 t), Thailand (133,000 t), Brazil (78,400 t), and Iran (75,800 t). These eight countries accounted for 82 percent of the world's apparent consumption in 2003. Following Iran, in decreasing order of consumption by tonnage, were Uzbekistan (42,400 t), Vietnam (39,400 t), Indonesia (32,300 t), the Republic of Korea (23,800 t), Kyrgyzstan (23,700 t), Japan (23,400 t), and Mexico (20,100 t). Consumption in all other countries was estimated to be less than 15,000 t each in 2003. Sizable consumption increases occurred in Azerbaijan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine between 2000 and the end of 2003. Consumption patterns in countries using less than 5,000 t per year were too erratic to ascertain any trends in their use of asbestos.

Circular