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Identifying the decision to be supported: a review of papers from environmental modelling and software

Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 in Environmental Modelling and Software that used the phrase “decision support system” or “decision support tool”, and which are characteristic of different sectors. In our review, 41% of the systems and tools related to the water resources sector, 34% were related to agriculture, and 22% to the conservation of fish, wildlife, and protected area management. Only 60% of the papers were deemed to be reporting on DSS. This was based on the papers reviewed not having directly identified a specific decision to be supported. We also report on the techniques that were used to identify the decisions, such as formal survey, focus group, expert opinion, or sole judgment of the author(s). The primary underlying modelling system, e.g., expert system, agent based model, Bayesian belief network, geographical information system (GIS), and the like was categorised next. Finally, since decision support typically should target some aspect of unstructured decisions, we subjectively determined to what degree this was the case. In only 23% of the papers reviewed, did the system appear to tackle unstructured decisions. This knowledge should be useful in helping workers in the field develop more effective systems and tools, especially by being exposed to the approaches in different, but related, disciplines. We propose that a standard blueprint for reporting on DSS be developed for consideration by journal editors to aid them in filtering papers that use the term, “decision support”.

Leipzig

Wintering bird response to fall mowing of herbaceous buffers

Herbaceous buffers are strips of herbaceous vegetation planted between working agricultural land and streams or wetlands. Mowing is a common maintenance practice to control woody plants and noxious weeds in herbaceous buffers. Buffers enrolled in Maryland's Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP) cannot be mowed during the primary bird nesting season between 15 April and 15 August. Most mowing of buffers in Maryland occurs in late summer or fall, leaving the vegetation short until the following spring. We studied the response of wintering birds to fall mowing of buffers. We mowed one section to 10–15 cm in 13 buffers and kept another section unmowed. Ninety-two percent of birds detected in buffers were grassland or scrub-shrub species, and 98% of all birds detected were in unmowed buffers. Total bird abundance, species richness, and total avian conservation value were significantly greater in unmowed buffers, and Savannah Sparrows ( Passerculus sandwichensis ), Song Sparrows ( Melospiza melodia ), and White-throated Sparrows ( Zonotrichia albicollis ) were significantly more abundant in unmowed buffers. Wintering bird use of mowed buffers was less than in unmowed buffers. Leaving herbaceous buffers unmowed through winter will likely provide better habitat for wintering birds.

Maryland

Lagged wetland CH4 flux response in a historically wet year

While a stimulating effect of plant primary productivity on soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions has been well documented, links between gross primary productivity (GPP) and wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are less well investigated. Determination of the influence of primary productivity on wetland CH 4 emissions (FCH 4 ) is complicated by confounding influences of water table level and temperature on CH 4 production, which also vary seasonally. Here, we evaluate the link between preceding GPP and subsequent FCH 4 at two fens in Wisconsin using eddy covariance flux towers, Lost Creek (US-Los) and Allequash Creek (US-ALQ). Both wetlands are mosaics of forested and shrub wetlands, with US-Los being larger in scale and having a more open canopy. Co-located sites with multi-year observations of flux, hydrology, and meteorology provide an opportunity to measure and compare lag effects on FCH 4 without interference due to differing climate. Daily average FCH 4 from US-Los reached a maximum of 47.7 ηmol CH 4 m −2 s −1 during the study period, while US-ALQ was more than double at 117.9 ηmol CH 4 m −2 s −1 . The lagged influence of GPP on temperature-normalized FCH 4 ( T air -FCH 4 ) was weaker and more delayed in a year with anomalously high precipitation than a following drier year at both sites. FCH 4 at US-ALQ was lower coincident with higher stream discharge in the wet year (2019), potentially due to soil gas flushing during high precipitation events and lower water temperatures. Better understanding of the lagged influence of GPP on FCH 4 due to this study has implications for climate modeling and more accurate carbon budgeting.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Comparison of line transects and point counts for monitoring spring migration in forested wetlands

We compared the efficacy of 400-m line transects and sets of three point counts at detecting avian richness and abundance in bottomland hardwood forests and intensively managed cottonwood (Populus deltoides) plantations within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. We detected more species and more individuals on line transects than on three point counts during 218 paired surveys conducted between 24 March and 3 June, 1996 and 1997. Line transects also yielded more birds per unit of time, even though point counts yielded higher estimates of relative bird density. In structurally more-complex bottomland hardwood forests, we detected more species and individuals on line transects, but in more-open cottonwood plantations, transects surpassed point counts only at detecting species within 50 m of the observer. Species richness and total abundance of Nearctic-Neotropical migrants and temperate migrants were greater on line transects within bottomland hardwood forests. Within cottonwood plantations, however, only species richness of Nearctic-Neotropical migrants and total abundance of temperate migrants were greater on line transects. Because we compared survey techniques using the same observer, within the same forest stand on a given day, we assumed that the technique yielding greater estimates of avian species richness and total abundance per unit of effort is superior. Thus, for monitoring migration within hardwood forests of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, we recommend using line transects instead of point counts.

Journal of Field Ornithology

Co-existence of zebra mussels and freshwater unionids: Population dynamics of Leptodea fragilis in a coastal wetland infested with zebra mussels

In 1996, thousands of live Leptodea fragilis were collected from a marsh located in the western basin of Lake Erie that was infested with zebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ). Despite the presence of zebra mussels at this site for a number of years, this L. fragilis population showed no signs of competition-induced changes in population dynamics. Biofouling was limited: fewer than 1% of the L. fragilis showed evidence of recent or past zebra mussel colonization. Successful recruitment occurred yearly, with multiple year classes collected that ranged in age from 1 to 12 years. However, age and shell length were not well correlated. Seventy-one percent of the individuals collected were 51-80 mm long, but ranged in age from 2 to 4.5 years. Three different patterns of growth or shell deposition were found. Some individuals grew rapidly, reaching 105 mm in 3.5 years, while others grew only 4.5 mm over the same time period. A few grew poorly during some years but very rapidly in others. Individuals with a shell length of 41 mm or more were sexually mature and females were more common than males. The strong recruitment and steady growth of this population showed no change between the years before and after the zebra mussel invasion, indicating that this marsh is functioning as a natural refugium from potential problems caused by zebra mussels.

Canadian Journal of Zoology

Promoting species establishment in a phragmites-dominated great lakes coastal wetland

This study examined efforts to promote species establishment and maintain diversity in a Phragmites-dominated wetland where primary control measures were underway. A treatment experiment was performed at Crane Creek, a drowned-river-mouth wetland in Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge along the shore of western Lake Erie. Following initial aerial spraying of Phragmites with glyphosate, this study tested combinations of cutting, raking, and additional hand spraying of Phragmites with glyphosate as methods to promote growth of other wetland species and increase plant diversity. Percent-cover vegetation data were collected in permanent plots before and after treatments, and follow-up sampling was performed the following year. Increased species richness, species emergence, and relative dominance of non-Phragmites taxa were used as measures of treatment success. We also examined treatment effects on Phragmites cover. Dimensionality of seedbank and soil properties was reduced using principal component analysis. With the exception of nitrogen, soil nutrients affected species establishment, non-Phragmites taxa dominance, and Phragmites cover. A more viable seedbank led to greater species emergence. Treatments had differential effects on diversity depending on elevation and resulting degree of hydrologic inundation. Whereas raking to remove dead Phragmites biomass was central to promoting species establishment in dry areas, spraying had a greater impact in continually inundated areas. For treatment success across elevations into the year following treatments, spraying in combination with cutting and raking had the greatest effect. The results of this study suggest that secondary treatments can produce a short-term benefit to the plant community in areas treated for Phragmites.

Natural Areas Journal

Multilocus patterns of nucleotide polymorphism and demographic change in Taxodium distichum (Cupressaceae) in the lower Mississippi River alluvial valley

• Premise of the Study: Studies of the geographic patterns of genetic variation can give important insights into the past population structure of species. Our study species, Taxodium distichum L. (bald‐cypress), prefers riparian and wetland habitats and is widely distributed in southeastern North America and Mexico. We compared the genetic variation of T. distichum with that of its close relative, Cryptomeria japonica , which is endemic to Japan. • Methods: Nucleotide polymorphisms of T. distichum in the lower Mississippi River alluvial valley, USA, were examined at 10 nuclear loci. • Key Results: The average nucleotide diversity at silent sites, π sil , across the 10 loci in T. distichum was higher than that of C. japonica (π sil = 0.00732 and 0.00322, respectively). In T. distichum , Tajima's D values were each negative at 9 out of 10 loci, which suggests a recent population expansion. Maximum‐likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the exponential population growth rate ( g ) of T. distichum populations indicated that this species had expanded approximately at the rate of 1.7–1.0 × 10 –6 per year in the past. • Conclusions: Taxodium distichum had significantly higher nucleotide variation than C. japonica , and its patterns of polymorphism contrasted strikingly with those of the latter, which previously has been inferred to have experienced a reduction in population size.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee

Killdeer population trends in North America

Killdeers (Charadrius vociferus) are considered a common species that inhabits a wide range of wetland and upland habitats throughout much of North America, yet recent information suggests that they may be declining regionally, if not throughout much of their range. To address this issue, we examined population trends of this species at multiple spatial and temporal scales using data from two major avian survey efforts, the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Christmas Bird Count (CBC). A summary of BBS trends indicates significant long-term (1966a??1996) declines in breeding populations across North America. Geographic regions driving this decline were Canada, western survey regions of the continent, and select southeastern states. In contrast, over the same time period, Killdeer populations increased in some midwestern states, particularly those in the Great Lakes region. Recent BBS trends (1986a??1996) indicate highly significant declines across most areas of North America surveyed. Trends from CBC data (1959a??1988) indicate declines at a smaller spatial scale. While the ability of current major avian survey efforts to detect population trends for Killdeer and other shorebird species warrants further examination, significant negative trends in Killdeer populations indicates the need to further investigate the status of this species.

Journal of Field Ornithology

Evaluating management options to reduce Lake Erie algal blooms using an ensemble of watershed models

Reducing harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie, situated between the United States and Canada, requires implementing best management practices to decrease nutrient loading from upstream sources. Bi-national water quality targets have been set for total and dissolved phosphorus loads, with the ultimate goal of reaching these targets in 9-out-of-10 years. Row crop agriculture dominates the land use in the Western Lake Erie Basin thus requiring efforts to mitigate nutrient loads from agricultural systems. To determine the types and extent of agricultural management practices needed to reach the water quality goals, we used five independently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool models to evaluate the effects of 18 management scenarios over a 10-year period on nutrient export. Guidance from a stakeholder group was provided throughout the project, and resulted in improved data, development of realistic scenarios, and expanded outreach. Subsurface placement of phosphorus fertilizers, cover crops, riparian buffers, and wetlands were among the most effective management options. But, only in one realistic scenario did a majority (3/5) of the models predict that the total phosphorus loading target would be met in 9-out-of-10 years. Further, the dissolved phosphorus loading target was predicted to meet the 9-out-of-10-year goal by only one model and only in three scenarios. In all scenarios evaluated, the 9-out-of-10-year goal was not met based on the average of model predictions. Ensemble modeling revealed general agreement about the effects of several practices although some scenarios resulted in a wide range of uncertainty. Overall, our results demonstrate that there are multiple pathways to approach the established water quality goals, but greater adoption rates of practices than those tested here will likely be needed to attain the management targets.

Michigan

Characteristics of and corrections for core shortening in unconsolidated sediments

Thinning, bypassing, and compaction of shallow unconsolidated sediments during manual coring or vibracoring operations probably cause more sediment deformation and greater stratigraphic displacement than is commonly reported in the wetland literature. We measured core shortening in open-barrel cores from fluvial wetlands, lagoonal flats, and marshes to document the magnitude and characteristics of shortening where sediments may be stiff and require extra mechanical effort to recover a sufficient length of sample for analysis. Results of those measurements indicate that thinning or non- recovery of discrete sediment intervals can range from 0 to 67 percent and cumulative core shortening can be as much as 30 percent even for cores less than one meter long. Detailed open-barrel measurements also show that core shortening is not uniformly distributed throughout the depth of penetration as is often assumed. Analytical data derived from shortened cores can only be properly interpreted if patterns of shortening are established and incorporated into the analysis. Minor artificial displacement of sediment depths can alter plots of physico-chemical parameters and can significantly influence calculated rates of sedimentation and other depth-dependent statistical relationships. This study (1) demonstrates how plots of interval shortening and cumulative shortening can be used to characterize the distribution of shortening at depth and (2) presents a simple equation for stratigraphic restoration so that core observations and analyses are corrected to their original depths.

Journal of Coastal Research

Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

Journal of Coastal Research

Factors associated with plant species richness in a coastal tall-grass prairie

In this study we examine the factors associated with variations in species richness within a remnant tall-grass prairie in order to gain insight into the relative importance of controlling variables. The study area was a small, isolated prairie surrounded by wetlands and located within the coastal prairie region, which occurs along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal plain. Samples were taken along three transects that spanned the prairie. Parameters measured included micro-elevation, soil characteristics, indications of recent disturbance, above-ground biomass (including litter), light penetration through the plant canopy, and species richness. Species richness was found to correlate with micro-elevation, certain soil parameters, and light penetration through the canopy, but not with above-ground biomass. Structural equation analysis was used to assess the direct and indirect effects of micro-elevation, soil properties, disturbance, and indicators of plant abundance on species richness. The results of this analysis showed that observed variations in species richness were primarily associated with variations in environmental effects (from soil and microtopography) and were largely unrelated to variations in measures of plant abundance (biomass and light penetration). These findings suggest that observed variations in species richness in this system primarily resulted from environmental effects on the species pool. These results fit with a growing body of information that suggests that environmental effects on species richness are of widespread importance.

Journal of Vegetation Science

Waterbird use of saltmarsh ponds created for open marsh water management

Open Marsh Water Management (OMWM) as an alternative to pesticides for mosquito control in saltmarshes along the Atlantic Coast has created debate among biologists. We designed an experiment to determine waterbird (American black duck [ Anas rubripe ]) and other waterfowl, wading birds, shorebirds, gulls, and terns) use (during daylight) of ponds created for mosquito control compared with use of pre-existing water bodies (i.e., natural tidal ponds, creeks, old ditches) and refuge impoundments. We also evaluated the influence of pond size and depth on waterbird use of wetlands. We documented bird use of different habitats for 1 year. The highest densities of waterfowl, in autumn, occurred in 0.030.06ha ponds ( P < 0.05) versus ponds either <0.02 ha or > 0.08 ha; highest shorebird densities occurred in summer in ponds > 0.10 ha ( P < 0.05). Pond depth affected shorebird and other waterfowl use in some seasons. Comparisons of mean number of birds using created (OMWM) ponds with mean number of birds using other water bodies revealed that most species showed no pattern (P <0.05) of disproportionate use versus availability. At high tidal levels, most species groups used OMWM ponds in the marsh more often ( P < 0.05) than other water bodies. Black ducks and other waterfowl used nearby refuge impoundments in higher densities than they did OMWM ponds, for nesting and during autumn-winter (all P s < 0.05). Creating small (> 0.1 ha) ponds for mosquito control does not enhance waterbird habitat, at least not where large impoundments are in close proximity. We recommend that in areas where OMWM practices seem appropriate, fewer large (gt 0.10 ha) ponds be constructed with shallow (< 15 cm) basins and sloping sides.

New Jersey

Flow cytometry used to assess genetic damage in frogs from farm ponds

Flow cytometry (FC) is a laboratory method used to detect genetic damage induced by environmental contaminants and other stressors in animals, including amphibians. We tested FC methods on three species of ranid frogs collected from farm ponds and natural wetlands in southeastern Minnesota. We compared FC metrics for Rana clamitans between ponds with direct exposure to agricultural contaminants and reference (unexposed) ponds. Concentrations of atrazine in water from our farm ponds ranged from 0.04 to 0.55 ppb. We found that R. clamitans from exposed ponds had DNA content similar to frogs from unexposed ponds. Pond-averaged C-values (a measure of DNA content) ranged from 6.53 to 7.08 for R. pipiens (n . 13), 6.55 to 6.60 for R. clamitans (n . 40) and 6.74 for R. palustris (n . 5). Among all species, the mean sample CVs ranged from 1.91 (R. palustris) to 6.31 (R. pipiens). Deformities were observed in only 2 of 796 individuals among all species and occurred in both reference and exposed ponds. Although we did not detect evidence of DNA damage associated with agriculture in our study, we demonstrated the potential of FC for screening amphibian populations for genetic damage. Metrics from a variety of amphibian species and locations as well as laboratory studies are needed to further assess the value of FC for monitoring amphibian genetic integrity in contaminated sites.

Journal of the Iowa Academy of Science

Determination of dominant biogeochemical processes in a contaminated aquifer-wetland system using multivariate statistical analysis

Determining the processes governing aqueous biogeochemistry in a wetland hydrologically linked to an underlying contaminated aquifer is challenging due to the complex exchange between the systems and their distinct responses to changes in precipitation, recharge, and biological activities. To evaluate temporal and spatial processes in the wetland-aquifer system, water samples were collected using cm-scale multi-chambered passive diffusion samplers (peepers) to span the wetland-aquifer interface over a period of 3 yr. Samples were analyzed for major cations and anions, methane, and a suite of organic acids resulting in a large dataset of over 8000 points, which was evaluated using multivariate statistics. Principal component analysis (PCA) was chosen with the purpose of exploring the sources of variation in the dataset to expose related variables and provide insight into the biogeochemical processes that control the water chemistry of the system. Factor scores computed from PCA were mapped by date and depth. Patterns observed suggest that (i) fermentation is the process controlling the greatest variability in the dataset and it peaks in May; (ii) iron and sulfate reduction were the dominant terminal electron-accepting processes in the system and were associated with fermentation but had more complex seasonal variability than fermentation; (iii) methanogenesis was also important and associated with bacterial utilization of minerals as a source of electron acceptors (e.g., barite BaSO 4 ); and (iv) seasonal hydrological patterns (wet and dry periods) control the availability of electron acceptors through the reoxidation of reduced iron-sulfur species enhancing iron and sulfate reduction.

Journal of Environmental Quality

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil of the Canadian River floodplain in Oklahoma

The accumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in soil, plants, and water may impart negative effects on ecosystem and human health. We quantified the concentration and distribution of 41 PAH (n = 32), organic C, total N, and S (n = 140) and investigated PAH sources using a chronosequence of floodplain soils under a natural vegetation succession. Soil samples were collected between 0- and 260-cm depth in bare land (the control), wetland, forest, and grassland areas near a closed municipal landfill and an active asphalt plant (the contaminant sources) in the north bank of the Canadian River near Norman, OK. Principal component, cluster, and correlation analyses were used to investigate the spatial distribution of PAH, in combination with diagnostic ratios to distinguish pyrogenic vs. petrogenic PAH suites. Total PAH concentration (SigmaPAH) had a mean of 1300 ng g(-1), minimum of 16 ng g(-1), and maximum of 12,000 ng g(-1). At 0- to 20-cm depth, SigmaPAH was 3500 +/- 1600 ng g(-1) (mean +/- 1 SE) near the contaminant sources. The most common compounds were nonalkylated, high molecular weight PAH of pyrogenic origin, i.e., fluoranthene (17%), pyrene (14%), phenanthrene (9%), benzo(b)fluoranthene (7%), chrysene (6%), and benzo(a)anthracene (5%). SigmaPAH in the control (130 +/- 23 ng g(-1)) was comparable to reported concentrations for the rural Great Plains. Perylene had a unique distribution pattern suggesting biological inputs. The main PAH contamination mechanisms were likely atmospheric deposition due to asphalt production at the 0- to 20-cm depth and past landfill operations at deeper depths.

Journal of Environmental Quality

An empirical approach to modeling methylmercury concentrations in an Adirondack stream watershed

Inverse empirical models can inform and improve more complex process-based models by quantifying the principal factors that control water quality variation. Here we developed a multiple regression model that explains 81% of the variation in filtered methylmercury (FMeHg) concentrations in Fishing Brook, a fourth-order stream in the Adirondack Mountains, New York, a known &ldquo;hot spot&rdquo; of Hg bioaccumulation. This model builds on previous observations that wetland-dominated riparian areas are the principal source of MeHg to this stream and were based on 43 samples collected during a 33 month period in 2007&ndash;2009. Explanatory variables include those that represent the effects of water temperature, streamflow, and modeled riparian water table depth on seasonal and annual patterns of FMeHg concentrations. An additional variable represents the effects of an upstream pond on decreasing FMeHg concentrations. Model results suggest that temperature-driven effects on net Hg methylation rates are the principal control on annual FMeHg concentration patterns. Additionally, streamflow dilutes FMeHg concentrations during the cold dormant season. The model further indicates that depth and persistence of the riparian water table as simulated by TOPMODEL are dominant controls on FMeHg concentration patterns during the warm growing season, especially evident when concentrations during the dry summer of 2007 were less than half of those in the wetter summers of 2008 and 2009. This modeling approach may help identify the principal factors that control variation in surface water FMeHg concentrations in other settings, which can guide the appropriate application of process-based models.

New York

Nonbreeding waterfowl behavioral response to crewed and uncrewed aerial surveys on conservation areas in Missouri

Monitoring waterfowl populations provides the basis for improving habitat quantity and quality, establishing harvest regulations, and ensuring sustainable waterfowl populations through appropriate management. Waterfowl biologists currently use a variety of population and habitat monitoring methods ranging from informal ground observations to low-level occupied aircraft surveys. Although unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) may provide safer and more precise alternatives to traditional aerial survey techniques that are less disturbing to waterfowl, there is limited information on how waterfowl in winter respond to UAS. We compared the behavioral responses of waterfowl to helicopters and UAS on Missouri Department of Conservation wetland conservation areas October – February 2021-2022. Helicopter surveys were flown using an Airbus H125 helicopter at heights of 100 – 350 m, with UAS surveys flown using a DJI Mavic 2 Pro UAS at 15 – 90 m. Waterfowl behavior was categorized as alert, swim, fly, or abandonment using flock-scan surveys recorded for 10-minute periods before, during, and after the surveys. The percentage of time flocks spent in each behavior during- or post-survey were compared to time spent in those behaviors pre-survey. Waterfowl increased time spent swimming, flying, and abandonment in response to helicopter flights, whereas UAS flights did not influence overall waterfowl behavior. Additionally, waterfowl did not change behavior in response to UAS flights regardless of waterfowl guild (mallard, other duck, or goose) or hunting season (open or closed). Waterfowl did increase flight behavior during UAS flights at 30 m, however, there was no change in behavior at all other UAS survey altitudes. UAS may be a good alternative to traditional waterfowl survey methods and are not likely to affect waterfowl distributions or energy expenditures during the survey periods.

Missouri