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USGS2021

American Woodcock singing-ground survey: Comparison of four models for trend in population size

Wildlife biologists monitor the status and trends of American woodcock Scolopax minor populations in the eastern and central United States and Canada via a singing-ground survey, conducted just after sunset along roadsides in spring. Annual analyses of the survey produce estimates of trend and annual indexes of abundance for 25 states and provinces, management regions, and survey-wide. In recent years, researchers have used a log-linear hierarchical model that defines year effects as random effects in the context of a slope parameter (the S model) to model population change. Recently, researchers have proposed alternative models suitable for analysis of singing-ground survey data. Analysis of a similar roadside survey, the North American Breeding Bird Survey, has indicated that alternative models are preferable for almost all species analyzed in the Breeding Bird Survey. Here, we use leave-one-out cross-validation to compare model fit for the present singing-ground survey model to fits of three alternative models, including a model that describes population change as the difference in expected counts between successive years (the D model) and two models that include t -distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion effects (H models) as opposed to normally distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion. Leave-one-out cross-validation results indicate that the Bayesian predictive information criterion favored the D model, but a pairwise t -test indicated that the D model was not significantly better-fitting to singing-ground survey data than the S model. The H models are not preferable to the alternatives with normally distributed overdispersion. All models provided generally similar estimates of trend and annual indexes suggesting that, within this model set, choice of model will not lead to alternative conclusions regarding population change. However, as in Breeding Bird Survey analyses, we note a tendency for S model results to provide slightly more extreme estimates of trend relative to D models. We recommend use of the D model for future singing-ground survey analyses.

Eastern and Central United States and Canada↗

USGS2018

Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: Millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years

A synthesis of 93 hydrologic records from across North and Central America, and adjacent tropical and Arctic islands, reveals centennial to millennial trends in the regional hydroclimates of the Common Era (CE; past 2000 years). The hydrological records derive from materials stored in lakes, bogs, caves, and ice from extant glaciers, which have the continuity through time to preserve low-frequency ( > 100 year) climate signals that may extend deeper into the Holocene. The most common pattern, represented in 46 (49 %) of the records, indicates that the centuries before 1000 CE were drier than the centuries since that time. Principal component analysis indicates that millennial-scale trends represent the dominant pattern of variance in the southwestern US, northeastern US, mid-continent, Pacific Northwest, Arctic, and tropics, although not all records within a region show the same direction of change. The Pacific Northwest and the southernmost tier of the tropical sites tended to dry toward present, as many other areas became wetter than before. In 22 records (24 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period (800–1300 CE) was drier than the Little Ice Age (1400–1900 CE), but in many cases the difference was part of the longer millennial-scale trend, and, in 25 records (27 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period represented a pluvial (wet) phase. Where quantitative records permitted a comparison, we found that centennial-scale fluctuations over the Common Era represented changes of 3–7 % in the modern interannual range of variability in precipitation, but the accumulation of these long-term trends over the entirety of the Holocene caused recent centuries to be significantly wetter, on average, than most of the past 11 000 years.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS2020

Changing suspended sediment in United States rivers and streams: Linking sediment trends to changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate

Sediment is one of the leading pollutants in rivers and streams across the United States (US) and the world. Between 1992 and 2012, concentrations of annual mean suspended sediment decreased at over half of the 137 stream sites assessed across the contiguous US. Increases occurred at less than 25 % of the sites, and the direction of change was uncertain at the remaining 25 %. Sediment trends were characterized using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model, and decreases in sediment ranged from −95 % to −8.5 % of the 1992 concentration. To explore potential drivers of these changes, the sediment trends were (1) parsed into two broad contributors of change, changes in land management versus changes in the streamflow regime, and (2) grouped by land use of the watershed and correlated to concurrent changes in land use or land cover (land use/cover), hydrology and climate variables and static/long-term watershed characteristics. At 83 % of the sites, changes in land management (captured by changes in the concentration–streamflow relationship over time; C–Q relationship) contributed more to the change in the sediment trend than changes in the streamflow regime alone (i.e., any systematic change in the magnitude, frequency or timing of flows). However, at >50 % of the sites, changes in the streamflow regime contributed at least a 5 % change in sediment, and at 11 sites changes in the streamflow regime contributed over half the change in sediment, indicating that at many sites changes in streamflow were not the main driver of changes in sediment but were often an important supporting factor. Correlations between sediment trends and concurrent changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate were often stronger at sites draining watersheds with more homogenous, human-related land uses (i.e., agricultural and urban lands) compared to mixed-use or undeveloped lands. At many sites, decreases in sediment occurred despite small-to-moderate increases in the amount of urban or agricultural land in the watershed, suggesting conservation efforts and best-management practices (BMPs) used to reduce sediment runoff to streams may be successful, up to a point, as lands are converted to urban and agricultural uses.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2006

Trends of chlorinated organic contaminants in Great Lakes trout and walleye from 1970-1998

Levels of chlorinated organic contaminants in predator fish have been monitored annually in each of the Great Lakes since the 1970s. This article updates earlier reports with data from 1991 to 1998 for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and (Lake Erie only) walleye (Sander vitreus) to provide a record that now extends nearly 30 years. Whole fish were analyzed for a number of industrial contaminants and pesticides, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT), dieldrin, toxaphene, and mirex, and contaminant trends were quantified using multicompartment models. As in the past, fish from Lakes Michigan, Ontario, and Huron have the highest levels of PCBs, DDT, and dieldrin; Superior has the highest levels of toxaphene; and Ontario has the highest levels of mirex. In the period after curtailment of chemical use, concentrations rapidly decreased, represented by relatively short half-lives from approximately 1 to 9 years. Although trends depend on both the contaminant and the lake, in many cases the rate of decline has been decreasing, and concentrations are gradually approaching an irreducible concentration. For dioxin-like PCBs, levels have not been decreasing during the most recent 5-year period (1994 to 1998). In some cases, the year-to-year variation in contaminant levels is large, mainly because of food-web dynamics. Although this variation sometimes obscures long-term trends, the general pattern of a rapid decrease followed by slowing or leveling-off of the downward trend seems consistent across the Great Lakes, and future improvements of the magnitude seen in the 1970s and early 1980s likely will take much longer.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS2002

Golden eagles in the U.S. and Canada: Status, trends, and conservation challenges

We reviewed the literature to assess status and population trends and to identify mortality factors affecting Golden Eagle populations in the U.S. and Canada. Nesting populations in Alaska and Canada are stable, but some nesting populations in the western U.S. have declined. Small but steady declines in the intermountain West have been associated with shrub loss and declining jackrabbit populations; declines in southern California have been attributed to urbanization. Migration counts in the eastern U.S. suggest a decline in Golden Eagles from the 1930s to the early 1970s, with a stable or increasing trend since the early 1970s. No significant trends in migration counts were reported for Golden Eagles in the western U.S. sincet he mid-1980s. Western migration count sites on the continental divide in the Rocky Mountains at or just north of the U.S.-Canadian border (49-51??N latitude) show potential to provide information on trends of Golden Eagle populations from Alaska and western Canada. Most eagle mortality is human related. This paper illustrates the need for more effective monitoring of Golden Eagle populations in North America.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS1981

Estimates of avian population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

One of the major purposes of bird population studies is to document changes in population size over a period of years. The traditional method used in Europe and North America to detect population change is to calculate annual ratios. However, this method can produce spurious results when ratios are accumulated over many years. Consequently, new methods of computing trends are needed. Several new methods of estimating population trends are developed and illustrated with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Each method is compared in terms of its assumptions, biases, and limitations. On the basis of these comparisons we recommend one method that we feel most accurately detects true population trends. Both the biological and statistical justifications for the model selection are presented. Trends estimated with this model are then presented for two species.

Book chapter↗

USGS1995

Breeding bird survey: Population trends 1966-92

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was begun in 1966 to collect standardized data on bird populations along more than 3,400 survey routes across the continental United States and southern Canada. The BBS has been used to document distributions and establish continental, regional, and local population trends for more than 250 species. We summarize here survey-wide patterns in the 1966-92 population trend estimates for 245 species of birds observed on a minimum of 40 routes with a mean relative abundance of 1.0 bird per route. Survey-wide trend estimates are also summarized for six groupings of birds, providing insight into broad geographical patterns of population trends of North American birds.

Book chapter↗

USGS1992

Geographic patterns in population trends of neotropical migrants in North America

We use the route-regression method to estimate the population trends of 100 species of Neotropical migrants using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). We examine long-term (1966-1988) and recent (1978-1988) trends. In the long-term, more species of Neotropical migrants were increasing than were decreasing in the eastern and western parts of the continent, but recent trends indicate that more species decreased than increased in their population index in the east. Recent population declines in the eastern part of the continent were primarily associated with bird species that breed in forested habitat. No association was detected between changes in forest acreages by state and population trends of Neotropical migrants in the United States and Canada.

Book chapter↗

USGS1995

Geographic patterns in relative abundances and population trends of breeding and wintering loggerhead shrikes in North America

In North America, the Breeding Bird Survey and the Christmas Bird Count provide data that are collected at sites visited each year, and the site-specific data can be placed in a Geographic Information System and smoothed to produce contour maps of relative abundance and trend for the United States and southern Canada. We develop these contour maps for Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) data from both surveys, and compare the patterns derived from each survey to evaluate the consistency of trends and relative abundances within physiographic strata. Patterns in relative abundance seem to be associated with strata, especially in the breeding season, but trends are often heterogeneous within strata. Because of limitations of the surveys and observed geographic patterns of shrike trends in the survey data, we suggest that there is no natural scale for the analysis of shrike-habitat associations.

Book chapter↗

USGS1996

Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS1997

Population trends of Black Terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. These long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2000

Contrasting methods of fracture trend characterization in crystalline metamorphic and igneous rocks of the Windham quadrangle, New Hampshire

The bedrock of the Windham quadrangle in southeastern New Hampshire consists of deformed early Palaeozoic crystalline metamorphic and intrusive igneous rocks intruded by Mesozoic igneous dikes. Generally, less common northeast striking, steeply dipping fractures developed sub-parallel to the pre-existing tectonic foliation in the Palaeozoic rocks. Mesozoic lamprophyre and diabase dikes intruded along the northeast trending fractures, utilizing the pre-existing anisotropy in the crystalline rocks. Northwest striking, steeply dipping systematic joints and joint sets are the most prominent fractures in the area and, at least in part, post-date the Mesozoic dikes. Sub-horizontal sheeting joints occur in all rock types. Locally, the coincidence of the sub-horizontal fractures with a sub-horizontal Paleozoic cleavage suggests that some of the sheeting fractures utilized the pre-existing ductile anisotropy during unloading. Generally, the metasedimentary rocks show a less complex pattern of fracturing than the intrusive rocks suggesting that rock type is a controlling factor. Metasedimentary rocks in the biotite zone and well-foliated igneous rocks show a greater tendency to fracture along pre-existing bedding and foliation surfaces than metasedimentary rocks in the garnet zone and poorly foliated igneous rocks. A comparison of mapped fracture data and station fracture data indicates that either mapped data or station data can be used to identify regional fracture trends. Local fracture trends can not be identified by limited measurements at a few fracture stations, however, because they do not address spatial variability. Some fracture trends may be scale-dependant because they may be either unique to a local area or present only at regional scales.

Northeastern Geology and Environmental Sciences↗

USGS2007

Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water in the Northeast United States

Public water systems in Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Rhode Island sampled treated drinking water from 1993-2006 and analyzed the samples for MTBE. The US Geological Survey examined trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water derived from ground water in these States for two near-decadal time steps; 1993-1999 and 2000-2006. MTBE was detected in 14% of drinking water samples collected in all States from 1993-1999 and in 19% of drinking water samples collected from the same systems from 2000-2006 and this difference was statistically significant. Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in each State by individual year indicated significant positive trends in Maryland and New Hampshire. Significant, increasing trends in MTBE concentrations were observed in Maryland and Rhode Island by individual year. This is an abstract of a paper presented at the 2007 Petroleum Hydrocarbons and Organic Chemicals in Ground Water: Prevention, Assessment and Remediation Conference (Houston, TX 11/5-6/2007).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology↗

USGS2017

Population trends and distribution of Common Murre Uria aalge colonies in Washington, 1996-2015

Periodic assessments of population trends and changes in spatial distribution are valuable for managing marine birds and their breeding habitats, particularly when evaluating long-term response to threats such as oil spills, predation pressure, and changing ocean conditions. We evaluated recent trends in abundance and distribution of the Common Murre Uria aalge within Copalis, Quillayute Needles, and Flattery Rocks National Wildlife Refuges, which include all murre colonies in Washington except one, off-refuge, on Tatoosh Island. In 1996-2001 and 2010-2015, aerial photographic surveys were conducted during the incubation phase (mid-June through mid-July) each year. Using images from film (1996-2001) and digital (2010-2015) cameras that included all parts of each colony, we manually counted murres. We estimated population trend as annual percent change in whole-colony counts using an overdispersed Poisson regression model. Overall, numbers of murres counted at breeding colonies in Washington increased by 8.8% per year (95% CI 3.0%-14.9%) during 1996–2015. The overall statewide increase was driven by an increase at colonies in northern Washington of approximately 11% per year (95% CI 4.5%-17.8%). Despite an increasing trend, abundance remains lower than levels in the late 1970s, and the spatial distribution has changed. Colonies in southern Washington - where murres were historically the most abundant - are no longer active, or only minimally so, whereas colonies in the north - which were rarely active in the early 1970s - are now the largest. There was high variability in spatial distribution among years, a pattern that indicates a need for coordinated monitoring and movement studies throughout the California Current System to understand dispersal and colonization. Our results indicate that future management of refuge islands could protect both current and historic colony locations, given the patterns of colony dynamics and the uncertainty about long-term effects of a changing ocean ecosystem and predation pressure on the status of murres.

Washington↗

USGS2017

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2002

Historical trend in ice thickness on the Piscataquis River in central Maine.

We analyzed a long-term record of ice thickness on the Piscataquis River in central Maine to determine whether there were temporal trends that were associated with climate warming. Trends in ice thickness were compared and correlated with regional time series of winter air temperature, heating degree days (HDD) , date of river ice-out, seasonal center-of-volume date (SCVD) (date on which half of the stream runoff volume during the period 1 Jan and 31 May has occurred), water temperature, and lake ice-out date. All of these variables except lake ice-out date showed significant temporal trends during the 20 th century. Average ice thickness around 28 Feb. decreased by about 23 cm from 1912 to 2001. Over the period 1900 to 1999, winter air temperature increased by 1.7 ˚C and HDD decreased by about 7.5%. Final ice-out date on the Piscataquis River occurred earlier (advanced), by 0.23 days yr –1 over the period 1931 to 2002. The SCVD advanced by 0.11 days yr –1 over the period 1903 to 2001. Ice thickness was significantly correlated with winter air temperature, HDD, river ice-out, and SCVD (P-value < 0.01). These systematic temporal trends in multiple hydrologic indicator variables indicate a coherent response to climate forcing.

Maine↗

USGS1978

Blue Ribbon Lineament, an east-trending structural zone within the Pioche mineral belt of southwestern Utah and eastern Nevada

The Blue Ribbon lineament is an east-west structural zone that is about 25 kilometers wide and passes through the Pioche mineral belt at about 38°10' N. It is best known in Utah, where it is at least 190 km long, and extends from the southern Sevier Plateau in the High Plateaus westward and across southern Mountain Home (Needle) Range in the Great Basin. It probably continues westward an additional 170 km into Nevada, where it connects with the eastern end of the 230-km Warm Springs lineament. The Blue Ribbon lineament is defined by range terminations and east-trending valleys, alinement of eruptive centers of middle Miocene (20 million years) to Pliocene(?) (5-1.8 m.y.) alkalic rhyolite, alinement of areas of middle Miocene to Pliocene mineralized rocks (mostly fluorine, uranium, tungsten) and hydrothermally altered rocks, east-trending magnetic highs and interruptions of magnetic anomalies, and east-striking basin-range faults of late Tertiary and Quaternary age. Mountains south of the lineament are topographically and structurally lower than those to the north. North-striking Quaternary basin-range faults, the Thermo hot springs area, several warm springs and former hot springs, and numerous dacitic to andesitic volcanic centers of early to middle Miocene age (26-20 m.y.) occur along the lineament. The Blue Ribbon lineament is believed to be a deep crustal fault zone dating from at least middle Miocene time and possibly much earlier. It thus developed generally coincident with northerly trending classical basin-range faults. Its fracture system was an important, long-lived conduit for mineralizing fluids, and it should be an attractive target for minerals exploration in the future. The lineament could be due to an east-trending warp in the subducting mantle plate, or it could be part of a past or present intracontinental transform fault that locally gets younger eastward and dies out eastward in the western Colorado Plateaus province.

Utah↗