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USGS2013

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2008

Fate and transport of pesticides in the ground water systems of southwest Georgia, 1993-2005

Modern agricultural practices in the United States have resulted in nearly unrivaled efficiency and productivity. Unfortunately, there is also the potential for release of these compounds to the environment and consequent adverse affects on wildlife and human populations. Since 1993, the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program of the U.S. Geological Survey has evaluated water quality in agricultural areas to address these concerns. The objective of this study is to evaluate trends in pesticide concentrations from 1993-2005 in the surficial and Upper Floridan aquifers of southwest Georgia using pesticide and pesticide degradate data collected for the NAWQA program. There were six compounds - five herbicides and one degradate - that were detected in more than 20% of samples: atrazine, deethylatrazine (DEA), metolachlor, alachlor, floumeturon, and tebuthiuron. Of the 128 wells sampled during the study, only eight wells had pesticide concentrations that either increased (7) or decreased (1) on a decadal time scale. Most of the significant trends were increasing concentrations of pesticides in older water; median pesticide concentrations did not differ between the surficial and Upper Floridan aquifers from 1993 and 2005. Deethylatrazine, in the Upper Floridan aquifer, was the only compound that had a significant change (increase) in concentration during the study. The limited number of wells with increases in pesticide concentrations suggest that ground-water sources of these compounds are not increasing in concentration over the time scale represented in this study. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1988

A summary of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment program

Beginning in 1986, the Congress appropriated funds for the U.S. Geological Survey to test and refine concepts for a National Water Quality Assessment Program. At present, the program is in a pilot phase with field studies occurring in seven areas around the Nation. In 1990, a committee of the National Academy of Sciences will complete an evaluation of the design and potential utility of the program. A decision about moving to full-scale implementation will be made upon completion of this evaluation. The program is intended to address a wide range of national water quality issues that include chemical contamination, acidification, eutrophication, salinity, sedimentation, and sanitary quality. The goals of the program are to: (1) provide nationally consistent descriptions of current water quality conditions for a large part of the Nation 's water resources; (2) define long-term trends (or lack of trends) in water quality; and (3) identify and describe the relations of both current conditions and trends in water quality to natural and human factors. This information will be provided to water managers, policy makers, and the public to provide an improved scientific basis for evaluating the effectiveness of water quality management programs and for predicting the likely effects of contemplated changes in land- and water-management practices. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Postglacial eruptive history of Laguna del Maule volcanic field and constraints on its magmatic system

The Laguna del Maule (LdM) volcanic field has produced >100 explosive and extrusive events over the past 17 ka. More than two-thirds of these have been silicic, with most being postglacial rhyolites (72–78 % SiO 2 ) concentrated near the eponymous lake (LdM), an extraordinary anomaly in the Quaternary Andes and unprecedented in this 1.5–Ma-old volcanic field as a whole. The postglacial field includes >70 separate vents distributed over ∼360 km 2 that together produced the many distinct eruptive events, of which 55 are rhyolitic (73 %−77 % SiO 2 ), 18 are rhyodacitic (68 %−72 % SiO 2 ), 4 are dacitic (63 %–66 % SiO 2 ), 26 are intermediate (54–62 % SiO 2 ), and 2 are true basalts (50 %–53 % SiO 2 ). Of these, most originated from single-vent domes, cones, or craters that erupted effusive and/or explosive products, each with relatively short lifespans. Some originated from multi-vent centers, the largest one being the Barrancas complex southeast of the lake, which has as many as 18 vents that erupted over as much as 10 kyr. The LdM basin itself is ringed by 13 separate silicic centers, many of which are also multi-vent and built over time by multiple explosive and extrusive events. These surround the lake, near the middle of which is the vent for the high-silica rhyolite Plinian eruption that produced the “ Rhyolite of Laguna del Maule ”, which was the first and largest silicic event from the postglacial field. Explosive and effusive products from all these events have been put in a time-stratigraphic framework supported by radiocarbon dating and chemical analyses to reconstruct the postglacial eruptive history. Correlations of pyroclastics to eruptive vents have provided a spatial-temporal framework that helps characterize the magmatic system beneath the LdM field. Distribution of both silicic and mafic vents support the likelihood that two separate magmatic systems produced the postglacial eruptions in the volcanic field—one in the Laguna del Maule basin and the other at the Barrancas complex—with a cluster of silicic vents at each and mafic vents situated between the two. Vent distributions, compositions of eruptive products, and temporal and spatial trends of eruptive units suggest that the abundant rhyodacitic and mafic units in the LdM basin have no common magma reservoir, but instead each had its own evolutionary trend. In contrast, there is enough affinity among some of the rhyolitic units in the Basin to imply magmatic connections and/or continuity that span both time and space, although neither geographic proximity nor temporal similarity have singular control on LdM-basin rhyolite compositions. Compositional trends through time at the Barrancas center suggest the rhyolitic eruptions at West and East Barrancas were derived from separate, zoned reservoirs that were tapped in batches, not permitting development of a large high-silica reservoir such as that beneath the LdM basin.

Laguna del Maule lake basin↗

USGS2017

Ecological change drives a decline in mercury concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears

We evaluated total mercury (THg) concentrations and trends in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation from 2004 to 2011. Hair THg concentrations ranged widely among individuals from 0.6 to 13.3 μg g –1 dry weight (mean: 3.5 ± 0.2 μg g –1 ). Concentrations differed among sex and age classes: solitary adult females ≈ adult females with cubs ≈ subadults > adult males ≈ yearlings > cubs-of-the-year ≈ 2 year old dependent cubs. No variation was observed between spring and fall samples. For spring-sampled adults, THg concentrations declined by 13% per year, contrasting recent trends observed for other Western Hemispheric Arctic biota. Concentrations also declined by 15% per year considering adult males only, while a slower, nonsignificant decrease of 4.4% per year was found for adult females. Lower THg concentrations were associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and higher proportions of lower trophic position food resources consumed. Because BMI and diet were related, and the relationship to THg was strongest for BMI, trends were re-evaluated adjusting for BMI as the covariate. The adjusted annual decline was not significant. These findings indicate that changes in foraging ecology, not declining environmental concentrations of mercury, are driving short-term declines in THg concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Water priorities for the nation—The U.S. Geological Survey next generation water observing system

The challenges of providing safe and sustainable water supplies for human and ecological uses and protecting lives and property during water emergencies are well recognized. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) plays an essential role in meeting these challenges through its observational networks and renowned water science and research activities (National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, 2018). Substantial advances in water science, together with emerging breakthroughs in technical and computational capabilities, have led the USGS to develop a Next Generation Water Observing System (NGWOS) . The NGWOS will provide real-time data on water quantity and quality in more affordable and rapid ways than previously possible, and in more locations. The data will be served through a modernized USGS National Water Information System that will be coupled to advanced modeling tools to inform daily water operations, decision-making during water emergencies (like floods, droughts, and contaminant spills), assessments of past trends in water quantity and quality, and forecasts of future water availability.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2012

Linking physical monitoring to coho and Chinook salmon populations in the Redwood Creek Watershed, California—Summary of May 3–4, 2012 Workshop

On Thursday, May 3, 2012, a science workshop was held at the Redwood National and State Parks (RNSP) office in Arcata, California, with researchers and resource managers working in RNSP to share data and expert opinions concerning salmon populations and habitat in the Redwood Creek watershed. The focus of the workshop was to discuss how best to synthesize physical and biological data related to the freshwater and estuarine phases of salmon life cycles in order to increase the understanding of constraints on salmon populations. The workshop was hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Status and Trends (S&T) Program National Park Monitoring Project ( http://www.fort.usgs.gov/brdscience/ParkMonitoring.htm ), which supports USGS research on priority topics (themes) identified by the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) and S&T. The NPS has organized more than 270 parks with significant natural resources into 32 Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Networks ( http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/networks.cfm ) that share funding and core professional staff to monitor the status and long-term trends of selected natural resources ( http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/monitor ). All 32 networks have completed vital signs monitoring plans (available at http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/monitor/MonitoringPlans.cfm ), containing background information on the important resources of each park, conceptual models behind the selection of vital signs for monitoring the condition of natural resources, and the selection of high priority vital signs for monitoring. Vital signs are particular physical, chemical, and biological elements and processes of park ecosystems that represent the overall health or condition of the park, known or hypothesized effects of stressors, or elements that have important human values (Fancy and others, 2009). Beginning in 2009, the I&M program funded projects to analyze and synthesize the biotic and abiotic data generated by vital signs monitoring and previous in-park natural resource monitoring and inventories to provide useful information, models, and tools to park managers for addressing resource management issues. The workshop described in this report is an element of the project funded by USGS NPS-I&M program to conduct a synthesis of salmon-related datasets in the Klamath (KLMN) and San Francisco Bay Area (SFAN) networks of national parks. The synthesis focused on four park units: Redwood National Park (KLMN), Point Reyes National Seashore, Muir Woods National Monument, and Golden Gate National Recreation Area (SFAN).

California↗

USGS2016

Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada

This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year − 1 ) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year − 1 , not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2003

Controls of tectonics and sediment source locations on along-strike variations in transgressive deposits on the northern California margin

We identify two surfaces in the shallow subsurface on the Eel River margin offshore northern California, a lowstand erosion surface, likely formed during the last glacial maximum, and an overlying surface likely formed during the most recent transgression of the shoreline. The lowstand erosion surface, which extends from the inner shelf to near the shelfbreak and from the Eel River to Trinidad Head (???80 km), truncates underlying strata on the shelf. Above the surface, inferred transgressive coastal and estuarine sedimentary units separate it from the transgressive surface on the shelf. Early in the transgression, Eel River sediment was likely both transported down the Eel Canyon and dispersed on the slope, allowing transgressive coastal sediment from the smaller Mad River to accumulate in a recognizable deposit on the shelf. The location of coastal Mad River sediment accumulation was controlled by the location of the paleo-Mad River. Throughout the remainder of the transgression, dispersed sediment from the Eel River accumulated an average of 20 m of onlapping shelf deposits. The distribution and thickness of these transgressive marine units was strongly modified by northwest-southeast trending folds. Thick sediment packages accumulated over structural lows in the lowstand surface. The thinnest sediment accumulations (0-10 m) were deposited over structural highs along faults and uplifting anticlines. The Eel margin, an active margin with steep, high sediment-load streams, has developed a thick transgressive systems tract. On this margin sediment accumulates as rapidly as the processes of uplift and downwarp locally create and destroy accommodation space. Sequence stratigraphic models of tectonically active margins should account for variations in accommodation space along margins as well as across them. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2006

Coastal-change and glaciological map of the Trinity Peninsula area and south Shetland Islands, Antarctica: 1843-2001: Chapter A in Coastal-change and glaciological maps of Antarctica

Changes in the area and volume of polar ice sheets are intricately linked to changes in global climate, and the resulting changes in sea level could severely impact the densely populated coastal regions on Earth. Melting of the West Antarctic part alone of the Antarctic ice sheet would cause a sea-level rise of approximately 6 meters (m). The potential sea-level rise after melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet is estimated to be 65 m (Lythe and others, 2001) to 73 m (Williams and Hall, 1993). In addition to its importance, the mass balance (the net volumetric gain or loss) of the Antarctic ice sheet is highly complex, responding differently to different conditions in each region (Vaughan, 2005). In a review paper, Rignot and Thomas (2002) concluded that the West Antarctic ice sheet is probably becoming thinner overall; although it is thickening in the west, it is thinning in the north. Thomas and others (2004), on the basis of aircraft and satellite laser altimetry surveys, believe the thinning may be accelerating. Joughin and Tulaczyk (2002), on the basis of analysis of ice-flow velocities derived from synthetic aperture radar, concluded that most of the Ross ice streams (ice streams on the east side of the Ross Ice Shelf) have a positive mass balance, whereas Rignot and others (2004) infer even larger negative mass balance for glaciers flowing northward into the Amundsen Sea, a trend suggested by Swithinbank and others (2003a,b, 2004). The mass balance of the East Antarctic ice sheet is thought by Davis and others (2005) to be strongly positive on the basis of the change in satellite altimetry measurements made between 1992 and 2003. Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council (1986), in subsequent recommendations by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) (1989, 1993), and by the National Science Foundation's (1990) Division of Polar Programs. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) decided that the archive of early 1970s Landsat 1, 2, and 3 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) images of Antarctica and the subsequent repeat coverage made possible with Landsat and other satellite images provided an excellent means of documenting changes in the coastline of Antarctica (Ferrigno and Gould, 1987). The availability of this information provided the impetus for carrying out a comprehensive analysis of the glaciological features of the coastal regions and changes in ice fronts of Antarctica (Swithinbank, 1988; Williams and Ferrigno, 1988). The project was later modified to include Landsat 4 and 5 MSS and Thematic Mapper (TM) [and in some areas Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+)], RADARSAT images, and other data where available, to compare changes that occurred during a 20- to 25- or 30-year time interval (or longer where data were available, as in the Antarctic Peninsula). The results of the analysis are being used to produce a digital database and a series of USGS Geologic Investigations Series Maps (I–2600) consisting of 23 maps at 1:1,000,000 scale and 1 map at 1:5,000,000 scale, in both paper and digital format (Williams and others, 1995; Williams and Ferrigno, 1998; Ferrigno and others, 2002).

IMAP↗

USGS2007

Coastal-Change and Glaciological Map of the Northern Ross Ice Shelf Area, Antarctica: 1962-2004

Changes in the area and volume of polar ice sheets are intricately linked to changes in global climate, and the resulting changes in sea level could severely impact the densely populated coastal regions on Earth. Melting of the West Antarctic part alone of the Antarctic ice sheet would cause a sea-level rise of approximately 6 meters (m). The potential sea-level rise after melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet is estimated to be 65 m (Lythe and others, 2001) to 73 m (Williams and Hall, 1993). The mass balance (the net volumetric gain or loss) of the Antarctic ice sheet is highly complex, responding differently to different conditions in each region (Vaughan, 2005). In a review paper, Rignot and Thomas (2002) concluded that the West Antarctic ice sheet is probably becoming thinner overall; although it is thickening in the west, it is thinning in the north. Thomas and others (2004), on the basis of aircraft and satellite laser altimetry surveys, believe the thinning may be accelerating. Joughin and Tulaczyk (2002), on the basis of analysis of ice-flow velocities derived from synthetic aperture radar, concluded that most of the Ross ice streams (ice streams on the east side of the Ross Ice Shelf) have a positive mass balance, whereas Rignot and others (2004) infer even larger negative mass balance for glaciers flowing northward into the Amundsen Sea, a trend suggested by Swithinbank and others (2003a,b; 2004). The mass balance of the East Antarctic ice sheet is thought by Davis and others (2005) to be strongly positive on the basis of the change in satellite altimetry measurements made between 1992 and 2003. Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council (1986), in subsequent recommendations by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) (1989, 1993), and by the National Science Foundation?s (1990) Division of Polar Programs. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) decided that the archive of early 1970s Landsat 1, 2, and 3 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) images of Antarctica and the subsequent repeat coverage made possible with Landsat and other satellite images provided an excellent means of documenting changes in the coastline of Antarctica (Ferrigno and Gould, 1987). The availability of this information provided the impetus for carrying out a comprehensive analysis of the glaciological features of the coastal regions and changes in ice fronts of Antarctica (Swithinbank, 1988; Williams and Ferrigno, 1988). The project was later modified to include Landsat 4 and 5 MSS and Thematic Mapper (TM) images (and in some areas Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus [ETM+] images), RADARSAT images, and other data where available, in order to compare changes that occurred during a 20- to 25- or 30-year time interval (or longer where data were available, as in the Antarctic Peninsula). The results of the analysis are being used to produce a digital database and a series of USGS Geologic Investigations Series Maps (I?2600) (Williams and others, 1995; Williams and Ferrigno, 1998; Ferrigno and others, 2002) (available online at http://www.glaciers.er.usgs.gov).

IMAP↗

USGS2016

Long-term trends in a Dimictic Lake

The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911–2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °C per decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s −1 before 1994 to 3.74 m s −1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (−1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911–1980, 1981–1993, and 1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Recent, widespread nitrate decreases may be linked to persistent dissolved organic carbon increases in headwater streams recovering from past acidic deposition

Long-term monitoring of water quality responses to natural and anthropogenic perturbation of watersheds informs policies for managing natural resources. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate (NO 3 − ) in streams draining forested landscapes provide valuable information on ecosystem function due to their biogeochemical reactivity and solubility in water. Here we evaluate a 20-year record (2001−2021) of biweekly stream-water samples ( n > 3000) and continuous discharge in three forested catchments in the Adirondack region of New York to investigate and interpret long-term trends in DOC and NO 3 − concentrations. Results from the intensively monitored catchments were compared with data from synoptic surveys of streams throughout the Adirondack region. A weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS) model, used to estimate daily flow-normalized concentrations, determined that DOC increased by ~30 to 50 % while NO 3 − decreased by ~50 to 70 % over the study period. The large amount of data from catchments with different soil properties permitted us to assess the relative effects of hydrology, season, and land cover factors on temporal trends in DOC and NO 3 − concentrations. We found weak evidence of climatic forcing of long-term increases in DOC, and instead contend that declining ionic strength in precipitation linked to declining anthropogenic acid deposition is driving DOC trends in stream waters. Nitrate concentrations were more variable but clearly decreased in recent years possibly related to declining N deposition. The recent increase in DOC:NO 3 − in all catchments indicates a major shift in stream stoichiometry that reflects changes in ecosystem functioning that may have important biogeochemical implications for terrestrial as well as aquatic ecosystems.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2005

Transport of chemical and microbial compounds from known wastewater discharges: Potential for use as indicators of human fecal contamination

The quality of drinking and recreational water is currently (2005) determined using indicator bacteria. However, the culture tests used to analyze for these bacteria require a long time to complete and do not discriminate between human and animal fecal material sources. One complementary approach is to use chemicals found in human wastewater, which would have the advantages of (1) potentially shorter analysis times than the bacterial culture tests and (2) being selected for human-source specificity. At 10 locations, water samples were collected upstream and at two successive points downstream from a wastewaster treatment plant (WWTP); a treated effluent sample was also collected at each WWTP. This sampling plan was used to determine the persistence of a chemically diverse suite of emerging contaminants in streams. Samples were also collected at two reference locations assumed to have minimal human impacts. Of the 110 chemical analytes investigated in this project, 78 were detected at least once. The number of compounds in a given sample ranged from 3 at a reference location to 50 in a WWTP effluent sample. The total analyte load at each location varied from 0.018 μg/L at the reference location to 97.7 μg/L in a separate WWTP effluent sample. Although most of the compound concentrations were in the range of 0.01−1.0 μg/L, in some samples, individual concentrations were in the range of 5−38 μg/L. The concentrations of the majority of the chemicals present in the samples generally followed the expected trend:  they were either nonexistent or at trace levels in the upstream samples, had their maximum concentrations in the WWTP effluent samples, and then declined in the two downstream samples. This research suggests that selected chemicals are useful as tracers of human wastewater discharge.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2004

Contaminant trends in reservoir sediment cores as records of influent stream quality

When reconstructing water-quality histories from lake and reservoir cores, it is sometimes assumed that the chemical signatures in the cores reflect historical water quality in the influent streams. To investigate this assumption, concentrations of metals, PAHs, and organochlorine compounds in sediment cores were compared to those associated with an influent-stream suspended sediment for three reservoirs in Fort Worth, TX, and two reservoirs in Boston, MA, U.S.A., and interpreted in light of land-use and regulation histories. In evaluating relations between suspended sediments and cores, three levels of preservation were indicated: (1) influent concentrations and historical trends are preserved in cores (metals at all sites; some organic contaminants at some sites); (2) some loss occurs during transport and initial deposition but relative historical trends are preserved in cores (some organic contaminants at some sites); and (3) neither stream concentrations nor relative historical trends are preserved (dieldrin and p,p???-DDT). The degree of preservation of influent concentration histories varied between lakes, particularly for PAHs. The results support the use of sediment cores to infer streamwater-quality histories for many contaminants but indicate that reservoir-bottom sediment samples might underestimate concentrations of organic contaminants in some streams.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2017

Climate-induced trends in predator–prey synchrony differ across life-history stages of an anadromous salmonid

Differential climate-induced shifts in phenology can create mismatches between predators and prey, but few studies have examined predator–prey mismatch across multiple life-history stages. We used long-term data from a warming stream with shifting salmonid migration timings to quantify intra-annual migration synchrony between predatory Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma ) and Pacific salmon prey and examined how predator–prey synchrony has been influenced by climate change. We demonstrate that Dolly Varden have become increasingly mismatched with spring downstream migrations of abundant pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ) juveniles. However, Dolly Varden have remained matched with fall upstream migrations of spawning Pacific salmon, including coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ), sockeye ( Oncorhynchus nerka ), and pink salmon. Downstream predator–prey migration synchrony decreased over time and with higher temperatures, particularly with pink salmon. In contrast, upstream migration synchrony was temporally stable and increased with rising temperatures. Differing trends in Dolly Varden predator–prey synchrony may be explained by the direct use of salmon to cue upstream migration, but not downstream migration. Overall, we show that climate change can have differing impacts on predator–prey synchrony across life-history stages.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

What lies beneath: geophysical mapping of a concealed Precambrian intrusive complex along the Iowa–Minnesota border

Large-amplitude gravity and magnetic highs over northeast Iowa are interpreted to reflect a buried intrusive complex composed of mafic–ultramafic rocks, the northeast Iowa intrusive complex (NEIIC), intruding Yavapai province (1.8–1.72 Ga) rocks. The age of the complex is unproven, although it has been considered to be Keweenawan (∼1.1 Ga). Because only four boreholes reach the complex, which is covered by 200–700 m of Paleozoic sedimentary rocks, geophysical methods are critical to developing a better understanding of the nature and mineral resource potential of the NEIIC. Lithologic and cross-cutting relations interpreted from high-resolution aeromagnetic and airborne gravity gradient data are presented in the form of a preliminary geologic map of the basement Precambrian rocks. Numerous magnetic anomalies are coincident with airborne gravity gradient (AGG) highs, indicating widespread strongly magnetized and dense rocks of likely mafic–ultramafic composition. A Yavapai-age metagabbro unit is interpreted to be part of a layered intrusion with subvertical dip. Another presumed Yavapai unit has low density and weak magnetization, observations consistent with felsic plutons. Northeast-trending, linear magnetic lows are interpreted to reflect reversely magnetized diabase dikes and have properties consistent with Keweenawan rocks. The interpreted dikes are cut in places by normally magnetized mafic–ultramafic rocks, suggesting that the latter represent younger Keweenawan rocks. Distinctive horseshoe-shaped magnetic and AGG highs correspond with a known gabbro, and surround rocks with weaker magnetization and lower density. Here, informally called the Decorah complex, the source body has notable geophysical similarities to Keweenawan alkaline ring complexes, such as the Coldwell and Killala Lake complexes, and Mesoproterozoic anorogenic complexes, such as the Kiglapait, Hettasch, and Voisey’s Bay intrusions in Labrador. Results presented here suggest that much of the NEIIC is composed of such complexes, and broadly speaking, may be a discontinuous group of several intrusive bodies. Most units are cut by suspected northwest-trending faults imaged as magnetic lineaments, and one produces apparent sinistral fault separation of a dike in the eastern part of the survey area. The location, trend, and apparent sinistral sense of motion are consistent with the suspected faults being part of the Belle Plaine fault zone, a complex transform fault zone within the Midcontinent rift system that is here proposed to correspond with a major structural discontinuity.

Iowa, Minnesota↗

USGS2020

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

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