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USGS2016

A partial exponential lumped parameter model to evaluate groundwater age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened wells

A partial exponential lumped parameter model (PEM) was derived to determine age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened production wells. The PEM can simulate age distributions for wells screened over any finite interval of an aquifer that has an exponential distribution of age with depth. The PEM has 3 parameters – the ratio of saturated thickness to the top and bottom of the screen and mean age, but these can be reduced to 1 parameter (mean age) by using well construction information and estimates of the saturated thickness. The PEM was tested with data from 30 production wells in a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer in California, USA. Well construction data were used to guide parameterization of a PEM for each well and mean age was calibrated to measured environmental tracer data ( 3 H, 3 He, CFC-113, and 14 C). Results were compared to age distributions generated for individual wells using advective particle tracking models (PTMs). Age distributions from PTMs were more complex than PEM distributions, but PEMs provided better fits to tracer data, partly because the PTMs did not simulate 14 C accurately in wells that captured varying amounts of old groundwater recharged at lower rates prior to groundwater development and irrigation. Nitrate trends were simulated independently of the calibration process and the PEM provided good fits for at least 11 of 24 wells. This work shows that the PEM, and lumped parameter models (LPMs) in general, can often identify critical features of the age distributions in wells that are needed to explain observed tracer data and nonpoint source contaminant trends, even in systems where aquifer heterogeneity and water-use complicate distributions of age. While accurate PTMs are preferable for understanding and predicting aquifer-scale responses to water use and contaminant transport, LPMs can be sensitive to local conditions near individual wells that may be inaccurately represented or missing in an aquifer-scale flow model.

California↗

USGS2005

Growth, dispersal, mortality, and contribution of largemouth bass stocked into Chickamauga Lake, Tennessee

Marked fingerling largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides (both northern M. s. salmoides and Florida subspecies M. s. floridanus and their hybrid) were stocked into Chickamauga Lake, Tennessee, to enhance angling and introgress the Florida subspecies into the local gene pool. We evaluated mass marking and stocking success by sampling the stocked fish for 1 year poststocking. More than 128,000 fingerlings (35-64 mm total length) were immersed in a solution of 500 mg/L oxytetracycline (OTC) for 6 h and stocked into four embayments in the lake in spring 2002; two additional embayments served as controls and were not stocked (these embayments contained only wild, indigenous fish). In a blind test, 97% of sagittal otoliths were correctly scored as marked or unmarked. In a subsequent test, the OTC marks were clearly visible on every otolith removed from 240 OTC-treated bass held for 30 d. Age-0 largemouth bass were sampled with DC electrofishing gear at 7-19, 44-61, and 119-139 d after stocking, and sampling was conducted along 100-m transects within 1 km of the stocking sites in each embayment. Of all recaptures in the first sample, 31% occurred more than 600 m from the nearest stocking site, indicating rapid dispersal by some fish. Survival of stocked and wild age-0 largemouth bass was similar and low (4.5-6.9%) in two embayments; in the other two embayments, stocked fish survived at lower rates (0-4.3%) than wild fish (33.7-49.9%). Mean catches of all age-0 largemouth bass in the first sample were positively related to the number of fish stocked. By October 2002, the mean catch of all age-0 largemouth bass was similar among embayments. Contribution of stocked fish declined to approximately 2% (2 of 91 fish) the following spring. Cost per fingerling increased from US$0.35 at stocking to $12.00 at 140 d poststocking. Increasing the abundance of largemouth bass was not the primary objective of this stocking effort, but stocked fish will have to survive much better if managers hope to introgress Florida largemouth bass genes into the resident population genome.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2019

Managing for multiple species: Greater sage‐grouse and sagebrush songbirds

Human activity has altered 33–50% of Earth's surface, including temperate grasslands and sagebrush rangelands, resulting in a loss of biodiversity. By promoting habitat for sensitive or wide‐ranging species, less exigent species may be protected in an umbrella effect. The greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage‐grouse) has been proposed as an umbrella for other sagebrush‐obligate species because it has an extensive range that overlaps with many other species, it is sensitive to anthropogenic activity, it requires resources over large landscapes, and its habitat needs are known. The efficacy of the umbrella concept, however, is often assumed and rarely tested. Therefore, we surveyed sage‐grouse pellet occurrence and sagebrush‐associated songbird abundance in northwest Colorado, USA, to determine the amount of habitat overlap between sage‐grouse and 4 songbirds (Brewer's sparrow [ Spizella breweri ], sage thrasher [ Oreoscoptes montanus ], sagebrush sparrow [ Artemisiospiza nevadensis ]), and green‐tailed towhee [ Pipilo chlorurus ]). During May and June 2013–2015, we conducted standard point count breeding surveys for songbirds and counted sage‐grouse pellets within 300 10‐m radius plots. We modeled songbird abundance and sage‐grouse pellet occurrence with multi‐scaled environmental features, such as sagebrush cover and bare ground. To evaluate sage‐grouse as an umbrella for sagebrush‐associated passerines, we determined the correlation between probability of sage‐grouse pellet occurrence and model‐predicted songbird densities per sampling plot. We then classified the sage‐grouse probability of occurrence as high (probability >0.5) and low (probability ≤0.5) and mapped model‐predicted surfaces for each species in our study area. We determined average songbird density in areas of high and low probability of sage‐grouse occurrence. Sagebrush cover at intermediate scales was an important predictor for all species, and ground cover was important for all species except sage thrashers. Areas with a higher probability of sage‐grouse occurrence also contained higher densities of Brewer's sparrows, green‐tailed towhees, and sage thrashers, but predicted sagebrush sparrow densities were lower in these areas. In northwest Colorado, sage‐grouse may be an effective umbrella for Brewer's sparrows, green‐tailed towhees, and sage thrashers, but sage‐grouse habitat does not appear to capture areas that support high sagebrush sparrow densities. A multi‐species focus may be the best management and conservation strategy for several species of concern, especially those with conflicting habitat requirements.

Colorado↗

USGS2003

Efficacy of hydrogen peroxide in controlling mortality associated with saprolegniasis on walleye, white sucker, and paddlefish eggs

The efficacy of hydrogen peroxide in controlling saprolegniasis on eggs of walleye Stizostedion vitreum, white sucker Catostomus commersoni, and paddlefish Polyodon spathula was evaluated at four private, state, and federal production hatcheries participating in an Investigational New Animal Drug efficacy study (experiment 1; walleyes) and in a laboratory-based miniature egg jar incubation system (experiment 2; walleyes, white suckers, and paddlefish). Naturally occurring fungal infestations (saprolegniasis) were observed on eggs in both experiments. Confirmatory diagnosis of infested eggs from one hatchery in experiment 1 identified the pathogen as Saprolegnia parasitica. During experiment 1, eggs were treated daily for 15 min with either 0, 500, or 750 mg/L of hydrogen peroxide, and one trial compared a 500-mg/L hydrogen peroxide treatment with a formalin treatment at 1,667 mg/L. Saprolegniasis infestation was observed in control egg jars, whereas treatment with either formalin or hydrogen peroxide virtually eliminated the infestation. Hydrogen peroxide treatments of 500 mg/L either increased egg hatch or were as effective as physical removal of infested eggs in controlling mortality. Although treatment with formalin at 1,667 mg/L significantly increased the percent eye-up of walleye eggs compared with that of those treated with hydrogen peroxide at 500 mg/L, the difference was only 1.9-2.6%. In experiment 2, noneyed eggs were treated for 15 min every other day with 0, 283, 565, or 1,130 mg/L of hydrogen peroxide until the viable eggs hatched. Saprolegniasis infestation engulfed most control eggs, whereas infestation of treated eggs was either reduced or not visible. Hydrogen peroxide significantly increased egg hatch for all three species tested in experiment 2. Although hydrogen peroxide treatments as low as 283 mg/L significantly increased walleye and white sucker hatch, treatments between 500 and 1,000 mg/L are more likely to be effective in production egg incubation systems.

North American Journal of Aquaculture↗

USGS2023

The smaller, the better? First evaluation of growth and mortality in crayfish internally tagged with p-Chips

Small-bodied aquatic animals present a challenge to researchers seeking to uniquely mark individuals for scientific study. Microtransponder tags, such as p-Chips, represent the smallest electronic animal tags available to meet this need. The use of p-Chips to tag freshwater crayfishes, however, has not been explored. The goal of this study, therefore, was to determine the effects of p-Chip tagging on growth and survival of crayfishes in a controlled laboratory environment. We also investigated potential influences from variables such as sex, reproductive form, number of molt events, and crayfish size on mortality. We internally tagged individuals of the woodland crayfish Faxonius hylas (Faxon, 1890) (12.2–26.6 mm carapace length; CL) with either one p-Chip (single-tag) or one p-Chip and one visual implant elastomer tag (double-tagged) and observed the effects over a period of 90 days. Survival probability over time was not statistically different ( P > 0.05) among tagging groups, sex, and reproductive form. Survival rates were similar across all tagging groups, with 75% in the control group, 77% in the double-tagged group, and 78% in the single-tag group. A strong correlation, however, was observed between survival and the number of molt events. Additionally, there was a negative correlation between survival and crayfish size (CL), indicating a higher risk of mortality for larger individuals. There were no statistically significant differences in growth in CL ( P = 0.30) or mass ( P = 0.19) among the tagging groups. We conclude that p-Chips are a viable tagging option for the study of crayfishes given their size, readability, and retention through molting cycles. We recommend that future studies repeat this experiment using smaller individuals to determine the minimum crayfish size compatible with p-Chip tagging. It is also important to test p-Chips with other crayfish species and compare the growth and mortality of crayfish tagged with p-Chips in natural habitats.

Journal of Crustacean Biology↗

USGS2017

Comparison of American Fisheries Society (AFS) standard fish sampling techniques and environmental DNA for characterizing fish communities in a large reservoir

Recently, methods involving examination of environmental DNA (eDNA) have shown promise for characterizing fish species presence and distribution in waterbodies. We evaluated the use of eDNA for standard fish monitoring surveys in a large reservoir. Specifically, we compared the presence, relative abundance, biomass, and relative percent composition of Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum measured through eDNA methods and established American Fisheries Society standard sampling methods for Theodore Roosevelt Lake, Arizona. Catches at electrofishing and gillnetting sites were compared with eDNA water samples at sites, within spatial strata, and over the entire reservoir. Gizzard Shad were detected at a higher percentage of sites with eDNA methods than with boat electrofishing in both spring and fall. In contrast, spring and fall gillnetting detected Gizzard Shad at more sites than eDNA. Boat electrofishing and gillnetting detected Largemouth Bass at more sites than eDNA; the exception was fall gillnetting, for which the number of sites of Largemouth Bass detection was equal to that for eDNA. We observed no relationship between relative abundance and biomass of Largemouth Bass and Gizzard Shad measured by established methods and eDNA copies at individual sites or lake sections. Reservoirwide catch composition for Largemouth Bass and Gizzard Shad (numbers and total weight [g] of fish) as determined through a combination of gear types (boat electrofishing plus gillnetting) was similar to the proportion of total eDNA copies from each species in spring and fall field sampling. However, no similarity existed between proportions of fish caught via spring and fall boat electrofishing and the proportion of total eDNA copies from each species. Our study suggests that eDNA field sampling protocols, filtration, DNA extraction, primer design, and DNA sequencing methods need further refinement and testing before incorporation into standard fish sampling surveys.

Arizona↗

USGS1977

Application of a hydrometeorological model to the south-central Sierra Nevada of California

A hydrometeorological streamflow-prediction model (HM model) developed for the North Cascades of Washington has been tested in the south-central Sierra Nevada of California. Twenty-four drainages ranging in mean altitude from 770 to 3,160 metres, including several of the major ones such as those of the Kern, Kings, and Merced Rivers, were examined. Eight U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation stations were evaluated. Of these, three proved to be of significant value for nearly all the drainages used. Results are given for predictions on February 1, March 1, and April 1 of monthly runoff of five major drainages for the April-September season. Also demonstrated is the April 1 prediction of a daily hydrograph for the April-September season for 2 diverse years. The altitude distribution of storage and runoff, both observed and predicted, is determined by using several drainages with different area-altitude profiles. Results of this calculation for two drainages show that, on the average, approximately 50 percent of the April-July runoff originates above 2,800 m. The influence of subsequent precipitation on prediction accuracy is determined by relating prediction error and actual precipitation occurring after the prediction day. Results for three basins show that about 75 percent of the error of a January-September prediction on January 1 is due to precipitation occurring during the prediction season. Comparisons of prediction accuracy are made for five major drainages: the Kern River near Kernville; the Kings River below North Fork, near Trimmer (inflow to Pine Flat Dam); the Kings River at Piedra; the Merced River at Pohono Bridge, near Yosemite; and the Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snelling. The accuracy of the HM model appears to be about 24 percent higher than existing operational methods in predicting the April-July runoff on April 1.

California↗

USGS2020

A comparison of E. coli concentration estimates quantified by the EPA and a Michigan laboratory network using EPA Draft Method C

We evaluated data from 10 laboratories that analyzed water samples from 82 recreational water sites across the state of Michigan between 2016 and 2018. Water sample replicates were analyzed by experienced U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) analysts and Michigan laboratories personnel, many of whom were newly trained, using EPA Draft Method C—a rapid quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) technique that provides same day Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) concentration results. Beach management decisions (i.e. remain open or issue an advisory or closure) based on E. coli concentration estimates obtained by Michigan labs and by the EPA were compared; the beach management decision agreed in 94% of the samples analyzed. We used the Wilcoxon one-sample signed rank test and nonparametric quantile regression to assess (1) the degree of agreement between E. coli concentrations quantified by Michigan labs versus the EPA and (2) Michigan lab E. coli measurement precision, relative to EPA results, in different years and water body types. The median quantile regression curve for Michigan labs versus EPA approximated the 1:1 line of perfect agreement more closely as years progressed. Similarly, Michigan lab E. coli estimates precision also demonstrated yearly improvements. No meaningful difference was observed in the degree of association between Michigan lab and EPA E. coli concentration estimates for inland lake and Great Lakes samples (median regression curve average slopes 0.93 and 0.95, respectively). Overall, our study shows that properly trained laboratory personnel can perform Draft Method C to a degree comparable with experienced EPA analysts. This allows health departments that oversee recreational water quality monitoring to be confident in qPCR results generated by the local laboratories responsible for analyzing the water samples.

Journal of Microbiological Methods↗

USGS2011

Fish community and bioassessment responses to stream network position

If organisms move beyond the boundaries of local sampling units, regional metacommunity dynamics could undermine the ability of bioassessment studies to characterize local environmental quality. We tested the prediction that fish dispersal influences local fish community structure and bioassessment metrics as a function of site position within stream networks. We evaluated fish community data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program in West Virginia, USA, to compare the influences of stream network position, ecoregion, basin, and stream size on local fish community composition. We assigned sites to 1 of 3 stream network positions: 1) main channels (MC, n = 12) encompassed streams with upstream catchment areas >200 km 2 , 2) mainstem tributaries (MT, n = 43) flowed into MC-sized confluences within 15 fluvial km, 3) headwater tributaries (HT, n = 31) lacked such riverine confluences within 15 fluvial km. MT and HT sites had similar upstream catchment sizes and landuse gradients, but species richness was greater in MT sites than HT sites, whereas MT and MC sites were not different in this regard. Three bioassessment metrics were greater in MT sites than HT sites (intolerant species richness, cyprinid species richness, benthic species richness), but a multimetric index of biotic integrity did not differ among stream network positions. Ordinations revealed that fish community composition was organized primarily by zoogeographic basin (Monongahela River basin, New River basin, Ohio River basin), ecoregion (Central Appalachian Plateau, Western Appalachian Plateau, Ridge and Valley), and stream size. Riverine specialists were more abundant in MT than HT sites and were more abundant in basins connected to the Ohio River than in basins isolated from the Ohio River by a large waterfall (New River). Our results suggest that contemporary dispersal among streams influences fish community composition over small spatial scales (10 1 km), historical dispersal constrained by zoogeographic barriers influences community structure over larger areas (10 2 km), and contemporary dispersal by fishes influences certain metrics commonly used in bioassessment programs.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗

USGS2011

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

1. Life‐history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2. We tested for demographic buffering in the southern‐most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known‐age female Weddell seals over 30 years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark–recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate’s sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3. We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4. Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long‐term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life‐history evolution in stochastic environments and provides useful information for predicting population responses to future environmental change. Our results for an Antarctic apex predator also provide useful baselines from a marine ecosystem when its top‐ and middle‐trophic levels were not substantially impacted by human activity.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2025

Factors associated with survival, recovery, and movements in the western Gulf Coast population of mottled ducks

The mottled duck ( Anas fulvigula ) is nonmigratory and a priority species for regional conservation and management because of its limited range and declining population trajectory in the western Gulf Coast (WGC) of Louisiana and Texas, USA. We developed multistate dead-recovery models for banding and recovery data (1997–2020) to evaluate potential drivers of survival, recovery, and post-summer movements for the WGC population of mottled ducks in Louisiana and Texas. Annual survival was most strongly associated with sex and year, with females having lower survival ( ± = 0.544 ± 0.114) than males (0.619 ± 0.062). Of the 32 environmental covariates tested, fall precipitation was the factor most strongly associated with survival. Conditional recovery probability (i.e., given mortality, the probability a bird had been shot by a hunter, retrieved, and had their band number reported) varied by sex, age, geographic state, and year, with juvenile males generally having highest conditional recovery (0.303 ± 0.072), followed by juvenile females (0.201 ± 0.100), adult males (0.156 ± 0.038), and adult females (0.095 ± 0.057). Estimates of harvest probabilities followed similar patterns as conditional recovery. Models containing effects of harvest regulations on conditional recovery were not competitive compared to models with general year effects; however, post hoc analyses suggested conditional recovery and harvest probabilities for adult and juvenile females decreased with the daily bag limit reduction in Louisiana and, for juvenile females, implementation of the 5-day closure regulation in Texas. Post-summer movement was substantially higher in the direction of Texas to Louisiana, decreased with distance to the Louisiana–Texas border, was higher for males than females, and varied with winter precipitation. These results contribute to a better understanding of the factors influencing demographic performance, harvest, and movement between states with differing harvest regulations and environmental pressures, which is important for mottled duck conservation planning. Wildlife managers can consider expanding banding effort throughout the full range of the WGC population and collecting and reporting live-recapture data to allow for stronger population-level inferences and increased power to detect differences in important demographic parameters at more refined spatial scales.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS1998

Comparison of rangeland vegetation sampling techniques in the Central Grasslands

Maintaining native plant diversity, detecting exotic species, and monitoring rare species are becoming important objectives in rangeland conservation. Four rangeland vegetation sampling techniques were compared to see how well they captured local pant diversity. The methods tested included the commonly used Parker transects, Daubenmire transects as modified by the USDA Forest Service, a new transect and 'large quadrat' design proposed by the USDA Agricultural Research Service, and the Modified-Whittaker multi-scale vegetation plot. The 4 methods were superimposed in shortgrass steppe, mixed grass prairie, northern mixed prairie, and tallgrass prairie in the Central Grasslands of the United States with 4 replicates in each prairie type. Analysis of variance tests showed significant method effects and prairie type effects, but no significant method X type interactions for total species richness, the number of native species, the number of species with less than 1 % cover, and the time required for sampling. The methods behaved similarly in each prairie type under a wide variety of grazing regimens. The Parker, large quadrat, and Daubenmire transects significantly underestimated the total species richness and the number of native species in each prairie type, and the number of species with less than 1 % cover in all but the tallgrass prairie type. The transect techniques also consistently missed half the exotic species, including noxious weeds, in each prairie type. The Modified-Whittaker method, which included an exhaustive search for plant species in a 20 x 50 m plot, served as the baseline for species richeness comparisons. For all prairie types, the Modified-Whittaker plot captured an average of 42. ( ± 2.4; 1 S.E.) plant species per site compared to 15.9 ( ± 1.3), 18.9 ( ± 1.2), and 22.8 ( ± 1.6) plant species per site using the Parker, large quadrat, and Daubenmire transect methods, respectively. The 4 methods captured most of the dominant species at each site and thus produced similar results for total foliar cover and soil cover. The detection and measurement of exotic plant species were greatly enhanced by using ten 1 m 2 subplots in a multi-scale sampling design and searching a larger area (1,000 m 2 ) at each site. Even with 4 replicate sites, the transect methods usually captured, and thus would monitor, 36 to 66 % of the plant species at each site. To evaluate the status and trends of common, rare, and exotic plant species at local, regional, and national scales, innovative, multi-scale methods must replace the commonly used transect methods to the past.

Journal of Range Management↗

USGS2016

Results of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study

This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~ 20% for the weak plume and ~ 10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2019

Factors affecting post-release survival of coded-wire tagged Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush in Lake Michigan at four historical spawning locations

Since the 1950s, fishery agencies on Lake Michigan have pursued Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush rehabilitation through Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus control, harvest regulations, and by stocking millions of fish annually. Stocking was prioritized at four historically important spawning locations beginning in 1985, and coded wire tags (CWTs) were used to help evaluate performance. We used data from CWT fish captured in fishery-independent surveys from 1998 – 2014 to evaluate relative post-release survival of Lake Trout, estimated by catch-per-unit-effort and corrected for the number of fish stocked (CPUE), across 173 CWT tag lots of the 1994 – 2003 year classes stocked at these four locations. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to assess the relative influence of four variables on Lake Trout CPUE in two age groups (age 4-5 years and 6-10 years) and paired with analyses of variance to test for statistical significance. Genetic strain (29.1%), stocking location (27.8%), mortality at release (23.1%) and predator density (19.9%) had similar influence on the relative survival of younger fish, whereas relative survival of older fish was heavily influenced by stocking location (79.8%). Survival of both age groups was lowest for fish stocked in the Northern Refuge, where the age structure was truncated due to fishery harvest and Sea Lamprey predation. Survival of stocked fish was higher at the Southern Refuge, Clay Banks, and Julian’s Reef, where mortality from sea lamprey and harvest was lower, and where increases in wild Lake Trout have been observed in recent years. Stocked Lake Michigan remnant genetic strains also appeared to survive better than strains from other lakes at these three locations, but strain effects could not be fully disentangled from effects of stocking location, and continued stocking of multiple genetic strains may provide resiliency toward future selection pressures. Continued progress toward rehabilitation will require reducing fishing and lamprey-induced mortality in northern Lake Michigan to build parental stocks of advanced ages as well as balancing efforts among competing management goals.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2026

Edible baits for systemic flea control, plague mitigation, and wildlife conservation: Evaluation of four active ingredients with three rodent species in western North America

The flea-borne agent of plague, Yersinia pestis , is lethal to endangered black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes , BFFs) and the prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp., PDs) on which BFFs depend for habitat and prey. We developed bait pellets containing insecticides for flea control with PDs. Individual baits contained 0.46, 0.91, 1.21, or 1.52 mg fipronil, 5.40 mg afoxolaner, 50.62 mg fluralaner, or 85.20 mg spinosad. From 2023 to 2025, we tested the baits with black-tailed PDs ( C. ludovicianus , BTPDs), Gunnison's PDs ( C. gunnisoni , GPDs), and Richardson's ground squirrels ( Urocitellus richardsonii , RGSs). We sampled hosts 2810 times and detected 8825 fleas across 2 U.S. States, 1 Canadian Province, 6 sites, 9 PD colonies, and 41 sampling plots. Over ∼12 mo across 5 replicates in South Dakota, USA, bait pellets with 0.91 or 1.52 mg fipronil, applied at a rate of 125 baits/ha, were more effective in reducing the abundance of fleas on BTPDs than 0.46 mg fipronil or the 3 other active ingredients; on 2 South Dakota replicates with data from 24 mo posttreatment, the effects of fipronil pellets on flea abundance had waned after ∼24 mo. Similarly, over ∼12 mo on 2 replicates in Arizona, USA, pellets with 1.52 mg fipronil were more effective in reducing the abundance of fleas on GPDs than pellets with 0.46 mg fipronil; on 1 replicate with available data from ∼2 yr posttreatment, the effects of fipronil pellets had waned after ∼24 mo. Over ∼8-11 mo across 2 replicates in Saskatchewan, Canada, baits with 1.21 mg fipronil/pellet were more effective in suppressing the abundance of fleas on BTPDs and RGSs when applied at 250 pellets/ha than 62 pellets/ha; flea control had waned after ∼20-23 mo. When applied annually at 125-250/ha, baits with 0.84-1.52 mg fipronil (FipBits) provided an effective, efficient, and affordable tool for flea control on PD colonies.

Arizona, Saskatchewan, South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Evaluation of hydrodynamic mixing in an afterbay reservoir

This study focused on the mixing of a solute, assumed to be conservative, introduced to one arm of an afterbay reservoir, between Keswick and Shasta Dams on the Sacramento River near Redding, California. Rhodamine water tracer (WT) dye served as the solute in a field experiment, and was introduced over 4.5 h and monitored for 4 days by sondes moored in the reservoir. The scenario was modeled numerically using the Delft3D flexible mesh (FM) hydrodynamic and mixing model, with measured inflows, outflows, water level, water temperatures, and bathymetry as input. Manning’s n "> n and horizontal eddy viscosity served as the (constant) model calibration parameters, and each was adjusted an order of magnitude below the default values to force observed and modeled dye hydrographs to match in arrival time and duration. The low friction factor was concluded to be due to a combination of low flow speeds coupled with energy dissipation inherent to the model. The model and surface drifters equipped with dual-frequency Global Navigation Satellite System equipment revealed velocities in the 1 – 5    cm / s "> 1 – 5 cm / s range in much of the domain during the experiment. Simple analytical expressions were shown to be useful for estimating distance to full cross-sectional mixing, steady-state concentrations, and time to reach them, but the numerical model is required for investigation of the approach to steady state, and at locations where flows intersect. Time to steady-state concentrations was 1.5–13 days for 10 simulations that spanned a wide range of inflow conditions. Model sensitivity tests suggest that wind and heat fluxes were not important during the field study, but simulations of a summer scenario with small inflows of cold water upstream in warm weather should consider water temperature. Both field observations and numerical model results showed inflow to one arm of the reservoir reaching full cross-sectional mixing before plunging below the water surface near the intersection of this arm with the reservoir’s main stem. Model results are being used to guide management decisions related to inflows to the reservoir from a relic mining site that is also a USEPA Superfund site.

California↗

USGS2023

Methane pore accessibility, densification, and accommodation by organic matter in the Niobrara Formation at wet-gas thermal maturity conditions

Petroleum within unconventional source-rock reservoirs is hosted in organic matter and mineral pore space as well as in voids and microfractures. Recent work has shown that for source-rock reservoirs in the dry gas window, significant portions of methane (CH 4 ), the main component of petroleum at elevated maturities, can be stored within fine (<5 nm) organic matter porosity. However, within reservoirs at lower thermal maturities (e.g., peak oil or wet-gas conditions), the distribution and behavior of CH 4 and the higher alkanes that comprise gas condensates across pore sizes is unclear, especially for pores with diameters <50 nm. Understanding CH 4 distribution within these settings provides insight for petroleum generation, movement, and recoverability, ultimately enabling increased accuracy of estimated ultimate recovery. Here wide Q-range total neutron scattering was used to evaluate perdeuterated methane (CD 4 ) behavior at reservoir pressures (200–750 bar) and temperature (60 °C) in a sample at the late oil/wet gas thermal maturity stage from the Late Cretaceous Niobrara Formation, an active petroleum producing formation within the Denver-Julesburg Basin, U.S. Neutron scattering data show that mesopores within the Niobrara Formation sample exhibit mass fractal scattering, similar to previously measured U.S. marine shale samples. In the presence of CD 4 , scattering intensities between Q = 0.02–0.1 Å −1 (corresponding to nominal pore diameters from 25 to 5 nm, respectively) decrease with increased pressure up to 750 bar where at least 80% of all pores with ~25 nm diameters are CD 4 accessible. In contrast, between Q = 0.1–1 Å −1 (corresponding to nominal pore diameters from 5 to 0.5 nm, respectively), scattering intensity initially increased at the lowest CD 4 pressure tested (200 bar) before decreasing with increasing pressure. These signal fluctuations with CD 4 pressure are interpreted to arise from the creation of pores with diameters <5 nm, likely through deformation of solid bitumen by supercritical CD 4 , and/or the incorporation of CD 4 within sample organic matter. This new porosity represents an increase of at least ~8% in available pore volume within the sample, although the majority of these pores do not persist following removal of CD 4 . Additionally, there is strong evidence for densification of CD 4 within the sample indicated by a shift in the CD 4 intermolecular scattering peak to higher Q-values compared to bulk CD 4 . These results provide insight into fluid properties within source-rock reservoirs at late oil/wet gas thermal maturities, especially as they relate to organic porosity interconnectivity, and are discussed with perspective toward pressure management of gas condensate wells.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming↗

USGS2007

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2006

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2006 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of- the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). After considerable delays due to programming issues, a computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was development and tested in 2005 and 2006. Simulations using observations of collared females with COY were randomly sampled to generate datasets of observations of random females with COY. These datasets were then run though the simulations program to test the accuracy of the rules. Data are currently being summarized. This project has been completed and a manuscript was submitted to the Journal of Wildlife Management. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established human-caused mortality quotas. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris (1984). A Wildlife Monographs was published in 2006. Additionally, the study team, in cooperation with several quantitative experts, reassessed how population size is indexed and how sustainable mortality rates are established. A draft report was presented to the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee in spring 2005. It was published as part of the USFWS Delisting Rule (Federal Register Vol. 70, No. 221, Nov. 17, 2005, 69853–69884) and subjected to public comment. This workshop document can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm. During the summer of 2006, a second workshop was held to address public comment and professional peer review. The result of this workshop was a supplement to the 2005 workshop document. This supplement can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm under the link Revised Methods to Estimate Population Size and Sustainable Mortality Limits. Results of those estimates are provided in Appendix A. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine was published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770. Results of the mercury studies were also published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493–501. Copies can be found on the IGBST website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. Based upon this work, we submitted a proposal to analyze all historic tissue samples from grizzly bears in the ecosystem. That proposal was funded and samples have been sent to a lab for isotopic analysis. We hope to have those results in early 2008. Results of DNA hair snaring work conducted on Yellowstone Lake were submitted and published in the Journal Ursus (Haroldson et al. 2005). Results of this study conducted from 1997–2000 showed a decline in fish use by grizzly bears when compared to earlier work conducted by Reinhart (1990) in 1985–1987. As a consequence, the IGBST submitted a proposal to the National Park Service and received 3 years funding to repeat that work. This project began in 2007. There are 2 graduate students and several field technicians working on the program. We completed the final field season in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). We continue to use GPS technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of the 2006 field season are reported here. We plan to complete the final report in late 2007. We continued to monitor the health of whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in cooperation with the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. A summary of the 2006 monitoring is also presented (Appendix B). The IGBST uses counts of winter-killed ungulates to index spring carcass abundance for grizzly bears. Likewise, we use wier counts and stream surveys to index cutthroat trout abundance. We ask Dr. Steve Cherry, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University-Bozeman, to review the protocols and make recommendations for improving them. That review and recommendations are presented in Appendix C. Finally, the state of Wyoming, following recommendations from the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee and the IGBST, launched the Bear Wise Community Effort. The focus is to minimize human/bear conflicts, minimize human-caused bear mortalities associated with conflicts, and safeguard the human community. Results of these efforts are detailed in Appendix D. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗