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Envisioning the future of wildlife in a changing climate: Collaborative learning for adaptation planning

Natural resource managers are tasked with assessing the impacts of climate change on conservation targets and developing adaptation strategies to meet agency goals. The complex, transboundary nature of climate change demands the collaboration of scientists, managers, and stakeholders in this effort. To share, integrate, and apply knowledge from these diverse perspectives, we must engage in social learning. In 2009, we initiated a process to engage university researchers and agency scientists and managers in collaborative learning to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial fauna in the state of Wisconsin, USA. We constructed conceptual Bayesian networks to depict the influence of climate change, key biotic and abiotic factors, and existing stressors on the distribution and abundance of 3 species: greater prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ), wood frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), and Karner blue butterfly ( Plebejus melissa samuelis ). For each species, we completed a 2-stage expert review that elicited dialogue on information gaps, management opportunities, and research priorities. From our experience, collaborative network modeling proved to be a powerful tool to develop a common vision of the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

Ecosystem services valuation to support decisionmaking on public lands—A case study of the San Pedro River watershed, Arizona

This report details the findings of the Bureau of Land Management–U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Services Valuation Pilot Study. This project evaluated alternative methods and tools that quantify and value ecosystem services, and it assessed the tools’ readiness for use in the Bureau of Land Management decisionmaking process. We tested these tools on the San Pedro River watershed in northern Sonora, Mexico, and southeast Arizona. The study area includes the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (managed by the Bureau of Land Management), which has been a focal point for conservation activities and scientific research in recent decades. We applied past site-specific primary valuation studies, value transfer, the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) models to value locally important ecosystem services for the San Pedro River watershed—water, carbon, biodiversity, and cultural values. We tested these approaches on a series of scenarios to evaluate ecosystem service changes and the ability of the tools to accommodate scenarios. A suite of additional tools were either at too early a stage of development to run, were proprietary, or were place-specific tools inappropriate for application to the San Pedro River watershed. We described the strengths and weaknesses of these additional ecosystem service tools against a series of evaluative criteria related to their usefulness for Bureau of Land Management decisionmaking. Using these tools, we quantified gains or losses of ecosystem services under three categories of scenarios: urban growth, mesquite management, and water augmentation. These results quantify tradeoffs and could be useful for decisionmaking within Bureau of Land Management district or field offices. Results are accompanied by a relatively high level of uncertainty associated with model outputs, valuation methods, and discount rates applied. Further guidance on representing uncertainty and applying uncertain results in decisionmaking would benefit both tool developers and those offices in using ecosystem services to compare management tradeoffs. Decisionmakers and Bureau of Land Management managers at the State-, district-, and field-office level would also benefit from continuing model improvements, training, and guidance on tool use that can be provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Bureau of Land Management, and the Department of the Interior. Tradeoffs were identified in the level of effort needed to parameterize and run tools and the amount and quality of information they provide to the decision process. We found the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit, Ecosystem Services Review, and United Nations Environment Programme–World Conservation Monitoring Centre Ecosystem Services Toolkit to be immediately feasible for application by the Bureau of Land Management, given proper guidance on their use. It is also feasible for the Bureau of Land Management to use the InVEST model, but in early 2012 the process of parameterizing the model required resources and expertise that are unlikely to be available in most Bureau of Land Management district or field offices. Application of past primary valuation is feasible, but developing new primary-valuation studies is too time consuming for regular application. Value transfer approaches (aside from the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit) are best applied carefully on the basis of guidelines described in this report, to reduce transfer error. The ARIES model can provide useful information in regions modeled in the past (Arizona, California, Colorado, and Washington), but it lacks some features that will improve its usability, such as a generalized model that could be applied anywhere in the United States. Eleven other tools described in this report could become useful as the tools more fully develop, in high-profile cases for which additional resources are available for tool application or in case-study regions where place-specific models have already been developed. To improve the value of these tools in decisionmaking, we suggest scientific needs that agencies such as U.S. Geological Survey can help meet—for instance, development and support of data archives. Such archives could greatly reduce resource needs and improve the reliability and consistency of results. Given the rapid state of evolution in the field, periodic follow-up studies on ecosystem services tools would help to ensure that the Bureau of Land Management and other public land management agencies are kept up to date on new tools and features that bring ecosystem services closer to readiness for use in regular decisionmaking.

Arizona;Sonora

The estuarine chemistry and isotope systematics of 234,238U in the Amazon and Fly Rivers

Natural concentrations of 238U and ??234U values were determined in estuarine surface waters and pore waters of the Amazon and Fly (Papua New Guinea) Rivers to investigate U transport phenomena across river-dominated land-sea margins. Discharge from large, tropical rivers is a major source of dissolved and solid materials transported to the oceans, and are important in defining not only oceanic mass budgets, but also terrestrial weathering rates. On the Amazon shelf, salinity-property plots of dissolved organic carbon, pH and total suspended matter revealed two vastly contrasting water masses that were energetically mixed. In this mixing zone, the distribution of uranium was highly non-conservative and exhibited extensive removal from the water column. Uranium removal was most pronounced within a salinity range of 0-16.6, and likely the result of scavenging and flocculation reactions with inorganic (i.e., Fe/Mn oxides) and organic colloids/particles. Removal of uranium may also be closely coupled to exchange and resuspension processes at the sediment/water interface. An inner-shelf pore water profile indicated the following diagenetic processes: extensive (???1 m) zones of Fe(III) - and, to a lesser degree, Mn(IV) - reduction in the absence of significant S(II) concentrations appeared to facilitate the formation of various authigenic minerals (e.g., siderite, rhodocrosite and uraninite). The pore water dissolved 238U profile co-varied closely with Mn(II). Isotopic variations as evidenced in ??234U pore waters values from this site revealed information on the origin and history of particulate uranium. Only after a depth of about 1 m did the ??234U value approach unity (secular equilibrium), denoting a residual lattice bound uranium complex that is likely an upper-drainage basin weathering product. This suggests that the enriched ??234U values represent a riverine surface complexation product that is actively involved in Mn-Fe diagenetic cycles and surface complexation reactions. In the Fly River estuary, 238U appears to exhibit a reasonably conservative distribution as a function of salinity. The absence of observed U removal does not necessarily imply non-reactivity, but instead may record an integration of concurrent U removal and release processes. There is not a linear correlation between ??234U vs. 1/ 238U that would imply simple two component mixing. It is likely that resuspension of bottom sediments, prolonged residence times in the lower reaches of the Fly River, and energetic particle-colloid interactions contribute to the observed estuarine U distribution. The supply of uranium discharged from humid, tropical river systems to the sea appears to be foremost influenced by particle/water interactions that are ultimately governed by the particular physiographic and hydrologic characteristics of an estuary. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research

Haploid gynogens facilitate disomic marker development in paleotetraploid sturgeons

Acipenseriformes (sturgeons and paddlefishes) are of substantial conservation concern, and development of genomic resources for these species is difficult due to past whole genome duplication. Development of disomic markers for polyploid organisms can be challenging due to difficulty in resolving alleles at a single locus from those among duplicated loci. In this study, we detail the development of disomic markers for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) found in North America. One of the strategies for pallid sturgeon conservation is to stock U.S. rivers with offspring of pure pallid sturgeon, but introgression with the sympatric shovelnose sturgeon ( S. platorynchus ) threatens pallid sturgeon genetic integrity. Currently, 19 microsatellite loci are used to differentiate between both species and their hybrids, but the markers are insufficient to robustly identify backcrosses. We performed double digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) on shovelnose sturgeon haploid gynogens to produce a reduced-representation genomic reference. Contiguous sequences that were heterozygous within a haploid individual were flagged as potentially encompassing multiple loci. Approximately 60 individuals of each species from two management units were sequenced, and reads were mapped to the haploid reference to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at individual loci. The final data set contained 11,082 microhaplotyped loci which offer at least an order of magnitude greater resolution for species discrimination than the current panel of 19 microsatellites. These markers will be used to examine a larger sample of Scaphirhynchus individuals throughout their ranges to determine the extent and trajectory of hybridization.

Molecular Ecology Resources

The integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan

The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (hereafter Strategy, DOI 2015) outlined the need for coordinated, science-based adaptive management to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem. A key component of this management approach is the identification of knowledge gaps that limit implementation of effective strategies to meet current management challenges. The tasks and actions identified in the Strategy address several broad topics related to management of the sagebrush ecosystem. This science plan is organized around these topics and specifically focuses on fire, invasive plant species and their effects on altering fire regimes, restoration, sagebrush and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), and climate and weather.

Report

Grizzly bear movement models predict habitat use for nearby populations

Conservation planning and decision-making can be enhanced by ecological models that reliably transfer to times and places beyond those where models were developed. Transferrable models can be especially helpful for species of conservation concern, such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ). Currently, only four grizzly bear populations remain in the contiguous United States. We evaluated transferability of previously derived individual-based, integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem by applying them within the nearby Selkirk (SE), Cabinet-Yaak (CYE), and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystems (GYE). We simulated 100 replicates of 5000 steps for each iSSF in each ecosystem, summarized relative use into 10 equal-area classes for each sex, and overlaid GPS locations from bears in the SE, CYE, and GYE on resulting maps. Spearman rank correlations between numbers of locations and class rank were ≥ 0.96 within each study area, indicating models were highly predictive of grizzly bear space use in these nearby populations. Assessment of models using smaller subsets of data in space and time demonstrated generally high predictive accuracy for females. Although generally high across space and time, predictive accuracy for males was low within some watersheds and in summer within the SE and CYE, potentially due to seasonal effects, vegetation, and food assemblage differences. Altogether, these results demonstrated high transferability of our models to landscapes in the Northern Rocky Mountains, suggesting they may be used to evaluate habitat suitability and connectivity throughout the region to benefit conservation planning.

Idaho, Montana, Washington, Wyoming

Climate-induced shifts in grassland bird nesting phenology have implications for grassland management

Grasslands are among the most impacted ecosystems globally. In the midcontinent of North America, a > 80% loss of grasslands has made their conservation a major priority for resource managers. Grassland ecosystems evolved under periodic disturbances; consequently, grassland management often involves regular actions such as grazing, haying, or burning to maintain ecosystem integrity. The timing of such practices has direct implications on grassland ecology, agricultural economics, and survival and fecundity of grassland nesting birds (hereafter grassland birds). We conducted a meta-analysis on the nesting phenology of grassland birds throughout North America, focusing on nest-survival literature. We constructed a well-fitting model to predict median date of expected nest departure (hereafter fledge date) for grassland birds across the midcontinent. Predictions from our model demonstrate considerable spatial variation in median nesting phenology that is predictable using a spatially explicit spring phenology index. Median fledge dates were 8 or 13 days earlier in years of extreme weather conditions (dry or wet, respectively) than in years of average conditions. Species that generally nest in taller vegetation tended to have later median nest phenologies than those using shorter vegetation. Our results incorporate the most rigorous information available in the literature on nesting phenology of 36 grassland bird species and improve information available to managers about nesting phenology of grassland birds in the midcontinent of North America. Our predictions approximate the day when one-half of the nesting efforts would be complete for a given area within the midcontinent grasslands and can inform management and conservation decisions about the timing of management actions in grassland ecosystems.

Global Ecology and Conservation

Biodiversity on public lands: How community science can help

Species inventories are crucial for conservation but are difficult to assemble and maintain. Bioblitzes, which encourage the public to document biodiversity in a particular area and timeframe, may offer useful information but their integration with other datasets poses challenges. We investigated the potential contribution of bioblitzes to natural resource management using observations from the United States National Park Service (NPS) 2016 Centennial Bioblitz. Through automated cross-referencing over 19,000 iNaturalist “research-grade” observations from 107 national parks with existing park inventory lists, we matched 86% of species documented in the Bioblitz to NPS species lists, based on current taxonomy, and matched another 6% of species using alternative scientific names using our matching process in R. Of the remaining 13.5% that did not match the NPS species lists, we manually found that 84% of the unmatched species were found within the lists or were outside the boundaries of the park, identifying 141 native species that were unrecorded in NPS species lists. Many introduced species were recorded; they were more likely to be documented in parks closer to cities. Parks near cities also drew more participants. Our study shows how public participation, through iNaturalist and bioblitzes, can facilitate biodiversity monitoring across large spatial scales.

Conservation Science and Practice

A landscape approach for identifying potential reestablishment sites for extirpated stream fishes: an example with Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) in Michigan

Habitat degradation combined with climate change increases the threat of extinction for stream fishes. In response to these threats, efforts to reestablish species within formerly occupied streams or translocation to suitable areas may be effective conservation strategies. In the absence of historic species presence data, identifying locations where suitable habitat exists across many fluvial habitats may limit the effectiveness of reestablishments. We present an approach that ranks habitat for stream fish reestablishment over large areas using best available information. Using the locally extirpated Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) in Michigan, USA as an example, we integrate information on species preferences and relationships between species with similar habitat requirements and landscape predictors of habitat to rank stream suitability. We find that unfragmented streams throughout the historical range of Arctic grayling and areas previously unoccupied by the species are potential locations for conservation action. However, we note that projected increases in summer water temperatures may reduce the amount of thermally suitable habitat in some top-ranked locations by up to 30%. Given its inherent flexibility in data requirements, our landscape-level approach may be a valuable tool that supports planning for species reestablishment.

Michigan

Ecosystem services: developing sustainable management paradigms based on wetland functions and processes

In the late nineteenth century and twentieth century, there was considerable interest and activity to develop the United States for agricultural, mining, and many other purposes to improve the quality of human life standards and prosperity. Most of the work to support this development was focused along disciplinary lines with little attention focused on ecosystem service trade-offs or synergisms, especially those that transcended boundaries of scientific disciplines and specific interest groups. Concurrently, human population size has increased substantially and its use of ecosystem services has increased more than five-fold over just the past century. Consequently, the contemporary landscape has been highly modified for human use, leaving behind a fragmented landscape where basic ecosystem functions and processes have been broadly altered. Over this period, climate change also interacted with other anthropogenic effects, resulting in modern environmental problems having a complexity that is without historical precedent. The challenge before the scientific community is to develop new science paradigms that integrate relevant scientific disciplines to properly frame and evaluate modern environmental problems in a systems-type approach to better inform the decision-making process. Wetland science is a relatively new discipline that grew out of the conservation movement of the early twentieth century. In the United States, most of the conservation attention in the earlier days was on wildlife, but a growing human awareness of the importance of the environment led to the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act in 1969. Concurrently, there was a broadening interest in conservation science, and the scientific study of wetlands gradually gained acceptance as a scientific discipline. Pioneering wetland scientists became formally organized when they formed The Society of Wetland Scientists in 1980 and established a publication outlet to share wetland research findings. In comparison to older and more traditional scientific disciplines, the wetland sciences may be better equipped to tackle today’s complex problems. Since its emergence as a scientific discipline, the study of wetlands has frequently required interdisciplinary and integrated approaches. This interdisciplinary/integrated approach is largely the result of the fact that wetlands cannot be studied in isolation of upland areas that contribute surface and subsurface water, solutes, sediments, and nutrients into wetland basins. However, challenges still remain in thoroughly integrating the wetland sciences with scientific disciplines involved in upland studies, especially those involved with agriculture, development, and other land-conversion activities that influence wetland hydrology, chemistry, and sedimentation. One way to facilitate this integration is to develop an understanding of how human activities affect wetland ecosystem services, especially the trade-offs and synergisms that occur when land-use changes are made. Used in this context, an understanding of the real costs of managing for a particular ecosystem service or groups of services can be determined and quantified in terms of reduced delivery of other services and in overall sustainability of the wetland and the landscapes that support them. In this chapter, we discuss some of the more salient aspects of a few common wetland types to give the reader some background on the diversity of functions that wetlands perform and the specific ecosystem services they provide to society. Wetlands are among the most complex ecosystems on the planet, and it is often difficult to communicate to a diverse public all of the positive services wetlands provide to mankind. Our goal is to help the reader develop an understanding that management options can be approached as societal choices where decisions can be made within a spatial and temporal context to identify trade-offs, synergies, and effects on long-term sustainability of wetland ecosystems. This will be especially relevant as we move into alternate climate futures where our portfolio of management options for mitigating damage to ecosystem function or detrimental cascading effects must be diverse and effective.

Book chapter

Freshwater unionid mussels threatened by predation of Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus)

Indigenous freshwater mussels (Unionidae) are integral to riverine ecosystems, playing a pivotal role in aquatic food webs and providing ecological services. With populations on the decline worldwide, freshwater mussels are of conservation concern. In this study, we explore the propensity of the invasive Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) fish to prey upon indigenous freshwater mussels. First, we conducted lab experiments where Round Gobies were given the opportunity to feed on juvenile unionid mussels and macroinvertebrates, revealing rates and preferences of consumption. Several Round Gobies consumed whole freshwater mussels during these experiments, as confirmed by mussel counts and x-ray images of the fishes. Next, we investigated Round Gobies collected from stream habitats of the French Creek watershed, which is renowned for its unique and rich aquatic biodiversity. We developed a novel DNA metabarcoding method to identify the specific species of mussels consumed by Round Goby and provide a new database of DNA gene sequences for 25 indigenous unionid mussel species. Several of the fishes sampled had consumed indigenous mussels, including the Elktoe (non-endangered), Creeper (non-endangered), Long Solid (state endangered), and Rayed Bean (federally endangered) species. The invasive Round Goby poses a growing threat to unionid mussels, including species of conservation concern. The introduction of the invasive Round Goby to freshwaters of North America is shaping ecosystem transitions within the aquatic critical zone having widespread implications for conservation and management.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia

Forest restoration and fuels reduction: Convergent or divergent?

For over 20 years, forest fuel reduction has been the dominant management action in western US forests. These same actions have also been associated with the restoration of highly altered frequent-fire forests. Perhaps the vital element in the compatibility of these treatments is that both need to incorporate the salient characteristics that frequent fire produced—variability in vegetation structure and composition across landscapes and the inability to support large patches of high-severity fire. These characteristics can be achieved with both fire and mechanical treatments. The possible key to convergence of fuel reduction and forest restoration strategies is integrated planning that permits treatment design flexibility and a longer-term focus on fire reintroduction for maintenance. With changing climate conditions, long-term forest conservation will probably need to be focused on keeping tree density low enough (i.e., in the lower range of historic variation) for forest conditions to adapt to emerging disturbance patterns and novel ecological processes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Analysis of borehole-radar reflection data from Machiasport, Maine, December 2003

In December 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, collected borehole-radar reflection logs in two boreholes in Machiasport, Maine. These bedrock boreholes were drilled as part of a hydrogeologic investigation of the area surrounding the former Air Force Radar Tracking Station site on Howard Mountain near Bucks Harbor. The boreholes, MW09 and MW10, are located approximately 50 meters (m) from, and at the site of, respectively, the locations of former buildings where trichloroethylene was used as part of defense-site operations. These areas are thought to be potential source areas for contamination that has been detected in downgradient bedrock wells. This investigation focused on testing borehole-radar methods at this site. Single-hole radar-reflection surveys were used to identify the depth, orientation, and spatial continuity of reflectors that intersect and surround the boreholes. In addition, the methods were used to (1) identify the radial depth of penetration of the radar waves in the electrically resistive bimodal volcanic formation at the site, (2) provide information for locating additional boreholes at the site, and (3) test the potential applications of borehole-radar methods for further aquifer characterization and (or) evaluation of source-area remediation efforts. Borehole-radar reflection logging uses a pair of downhole transmitting and receiving antennas to record the reflected wave amplitude and transit time of high-frequency electromagnetic waves. For this investigation, 60- and 100-megahertz antennas were used. The electromagnetic waves emitted by the transmitter penetrate into the formation surrounding the borehole and are reflected off of a material with different electromagnetic properties, such as a fracture or change in rock type. Single-hole directional radar surveys indicate the bedrock surrounding these boreholes is highly fractured, because several reflectors were identified in the radar-reflection data. There are several steeply dipping reflectors with orientations similar to the fracture patterns observed with borehole imaging techniques and in outcrops. The radar-reflection data showed that the vitrophyre in borehole MW09 was more highly fractured than the underlying gabbroic unit. The velocities of radar waves in the bedrock surrounding the boreholes were determined using single-hole vertical radar profiling. Velocities of 114 and 125 meters per microsecond were used to determine the distance to reflectors, the radial depth of penetration, and the dip of reflectors. The bimodal volcanic units appear to be ideal for radar-wave propagation. For the radar surveys collected at this site, radar reflections were detected up to 40 m into the rock from the borehole. These results indicate that boreholes could conservatively be spaced about 15-20 m apart for hole-to-hole radar methods to be effective for imaging between the boreholes and monitoring remediation. Integrated analysis of drilling and borehole-geophysical logs indicates the vitrophyric formation is more fractured than the more mafic gabbroic units in these boreholes. There does not, however, appear to be a quantifiable difference in the radar-wave penetration in these two rock units.

Maine

Phylogenomics of endangered troglobiotic rove beetles (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae: Pselaphinae) from central Texas karst regions

The karst habitats of central Texas, USA, are home to an array of endemic subterranean-obligate (troglobiotic) invertebrates. This includes several species of rove beetles (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae: Pselaphinae). Here we developed a molecular dataset using sequence capture of Ultra-Conserved Elements (UCEs) from the Coleoptera-UCE-1.1 K v1 baits kit. These data were used to assess species relationships and patterns of diversification in this group, specifically among species within the genera Batrisodes Reitter 1882 and Texamaurops Barr and Steeves 1963 ; with a specific focus on the relationships of the federally listed as endangered B. texanus Chandler 1992 and B.cryptotexanus Chandler and Reddell 2001 . Our final datasets consisted of 69 individuals (two genera, Batrisodes [five species] and Texamaurops [one species], from 34 localities), and a molecular dataset of 658,560 aligned base pairs across 672 UCE loci. Concatenated and species-tree phylogenetic analyses resolved all troglobiotic taxa as a monophyletic group. Within the Travis and Williamson County troglobionts, we recovered four well-supported clades that generally follow hypothesized geologic barriers to dispersal formalized as karst fauna regions (KFRs). A northward pattern of diversification was observed among these groups: (A) Texamaurops reddelli Barr and Steeves 1963 (Jollyville Plateau KFR); (B) Batrisodes reyesi Chandler 1997 (West Cedar Park and Post Oak Ridge KFRs); (C) B. reyesi (McNeil-Round Rock KFR); (D) B. cryptotexanus + B. texanus (Georgetown and North Williamson KFRs). The morphologically defined Batrisodes texanus and B. cryptotexanus were not reciprocally monophyletic, nor clustered into two unique groups in clustering analyses of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Rather, we found support for five major subclades and five to seven genetic clusters. These results suggest that diversification and subsequent isolation of clades may have occurred with the progressive availability of karst habitats over time in the North Williamson and Georgetown KFRs resulting from the interactions of faulting, geologic structure, and drainage basin evolution. Comparison with recent U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service cave habitat resiliency assessments indicated that four genetic clusters occur within at least partially resilient habitat, whereas three are confined to caves with low or impaired resiliency. Integrating genetic results presented here along with results of other molecular studies of co-occurring troglobiotic invertebrates supports considering additional geological substructure within the North Williamson KFR in conservation efforts for these rare and unique lineages and systems.

Texas

What is the (real) rate of soil health practice adoption? Making sense of three data sources

Conservation stakeholders looking to quantify the impact of their investments to increase soil health practice adoption over time often face challenges in interpreting practice adoption data due to discrepancies in language and results among data sources. Similarly, efforts to estimate environmental outcomes of practice adoption, such as water quality and greenhouse gas emissions, can vary depending on different practice adoption input data. To help make sense of different adoption data sources, we compared county-level adoption data for winter cover crops (WCC), no-till (NT), and reduced tillage (RT) in three areas of the United States with contrasting climates and production systems: central Illinois (CIL), southern Illinois (SIL), and western New York (WNY). We analyzed data available during 2015 through 2022 from the Operational Tillage Information System (OpTIS, remote sensing), US Census of Agriculture (AgCensus, a farmer survey), and, specifically in Illinois, the Illinois Soil Conservation Transect Survey (Transect, a roadside survey). The magnitude of differences between the datasets depended on the practice and geographic location. For example, OpTIS and AgCensus tillage data were much more similar in Illinois (average difference of less than 4 percentage points) compared to New York (average differences of 20 percentage points). Similarly, there was less variability and smaller differences between OpTIS and AgCensus WCC data in Illinois compared to WNY. AgCensus tended to report lower WCC adoption for Illinois and greater adoption in WNY compared to OpTIS. All data sources agreed that the rate of change in tillage practices is slow (mainly –1% to 1%) and that adoption of WCC is low (assuming linear growth, it could take nearly a century to reach 50% WCC adoption in CIL). Differences among the datasets were attributed to definitional inconsistencies for RT and NT and how WCC data were acquired. For example, the AgCensus asks if a WCC was planted, whereas OpTIS and Transect evaluate the presence of a standing WCC. Data sources also reflect different time periods (calendar years or crop years) and types of cropland assessed (corn [ Zea mays L.], soybean [ Glycine max {L.} Merr.], or all cropland). We propose two recommendations to improve interpretation and consistency: (1) a working group to harmonize definitions and protocols and develop educational materials for data users, and (2) a research effort that integrates different adoption data types and produces publicly available adoption data at HUC-10 and county scales. Such activities could help improve data access and utility for evidence-based conservation decision-making and enhance the accuracy of environmental models that rely on adoption data as input.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

Using structural equation modeling to link human activities to wetland ecological integrity

The integrity of wetlands is of global concern. A common approach to evaluating ecological integrity involves bioassessment procedures that quantify the degree to which communities deviate from historical norms. While helpful, bioassessment provides little information about how altered conditions connect to community response. More detailed information is needed for conservation and restoration. We have illustrated an approach to addressing this challenge using structural equation modeling (SEM) and long-term monitoring data from Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP). Wetlands in RMNP are threatened by a complex history of anthropogenic disturbance including direct alteration of hydrologic regimes; elimination of elk, wolves, and grizzly bears; reintroduction of elk (absent their primary predators); and the extirpation of beaver. More recently, nonnative moose were introduced to the region and have expanded into the park. Bioassessment suggests that up to half of the park's wetlands are not in reference condition. We developed and evaluated a general hypothesis about how human alterations influence wetland integrity and then develop a specific model using RMNP wetlands. Bioassessment revealed three bioindicators that appear to be highly sensitive to human disturbance (HD): (1) conservatism, (2) degree of invasion, and (3) cover of native forbs. SEM analyses suggest several ways human activities have impacted wetland integrity and the landscape of RMNP. First, degradation is highest where the combined effects of all types of direct HD have been the greatest (i.e., there is a general, overall effect). Second, specific HDs appear to create a “mixed-bag” of complex indirect effects, including reduced invasion and increased conservatism, but also reduced native forb cover. Some of these effects are associated with alterations to hydrologic regimes, while others are associated with altered shrub production. Third, landscape features created by historical beaver activity continue to influence wetland integrity years after beavers have abandoned sites via persistent landforms and reduced biomass of tall shrubs. Our model provides a system-level perspective on wetland integrity and provides a context for future evaluations and investigations. It also suggests scientifically supported natural resource management strategies that can assist in the National Park Service mission of maintaining or, when indicated, restoring ecological integrity “unimpaired for future generations.”

Colorado

Integrating monitoring and optimization modeling to inform flow decisions for Chinook salmon smolts

Monitoring is usually among the first actions taken to help inform recovery planning for declining species, but these data are rarely used formally to inform conservation decision making. For example, Central Valley Chinook salmon were once abundant, but anthropogenic activities have led to widespread habitat loss and degradation resulting in significant population declines. Monitoring data suggest survival through the southern Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, in particular, may be a limiting factor for juvenile Chinook salmon outmigrating from the San Joaquin River and its tributaries. However, survival and routing monitoring data have not been formally used to inform water management in a decision analytic framework. Here, we illustrate how estimates derived from disjunct monitoring data can be used to inform water management and as a basis for adaptively managing flows. We aggregated a meta-analysis of Chinook salmon smolt survival and routing estimates through the south Delta with other sources of data to develop a survival and routing simulation model to estimate optimal flows for the San Joaquin River during smolt outmigration from February–May. We found that large flow pulses at predictable times during the spring are projected to be optimal for increasing Chinook salmon smolt survival to the San Francisco Bay and that optimal scenarios differed somewhat with water year type. Sensitivity analysis revealed temperature and smolt outmigration timing are driving optimal pulse distribution and that water allocation changes little with parameter uncertainty. This case study highlights the utility of the decision-analytic framework for solving conservation problems.

California