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USGS2021

Earthcasting: Geomorphic forecasts for society

Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision-makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2023

Water, water everywhere, but every drop unique: Emerging challenges in the science to understand the role of contaminants in management of drinking water supplies

The protection and management of water resources continues to be challenged by multiple and ongoing factors such as shifts in demographic, social, economic, and public health requirements. Physical limitations placed on access to potable supplies include natural and human-caused factors such as aquifer depletion, aging infrastructure, saltwater intrusion, floods, and drought. These factors, although varying in magnitude, spatial extent, and timing, can exacerbate the potential for contaminants of concern (CECs) to be present in sources of drinking water, infrastructure, premise plumbing and associated tap water. This monograph examines how current and emerging scientific efforts and technologies increase our understanding of the range of CECs and drinking water issues facing current and future populations. It is not intended to be read in one sitting, but is instead a starting point for scientists wanting to learn more about the issues surrounding CECs. This text discusses the topical evolution CECs over time (Section 1), improvements in measuring chemical and microbial CECs, through both analysis of concentration and toxicity (Section 2) and modeling CEC exposure and fate (Section 3), forms of treatment effective at removing chemical and microbial CECs (Section 4), and potential for human health impacts from exposure to CECs (Section 5). The paper concludes with how changes to water quantity, both scarcity and surpluses, could affect water quality (Section 6). Taken together, these sections document the past 25 years of CEC research and the regulatory response to these contaminants, the current work to identify and monitor CECs and mitigate exposure, and the challenges facing the future.

GeoHealth↗

USGS2025

Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2024

Mesocarnivores in residential yards: Influence of yard features on the occupancy, relative abundance, and overlap of coyotes, grey fox, and red fox

Context As conversion of natural areas to human development continues, there is a lack of information about how developed areas can sustainably support wildlife. While large predators are often extirpated from areas of human development, some medium-bodied mammalian predators (hereafter, mesocarnivores) have adapted to co-exist in human-dominated areas. Aims How human-dominated areas such as residential yards are used by mesocarnivores is not well understood. Our study aimed to identify yard and landscape features that influence occupancy, relative abundance and spatial-temporal overlap of three widespread mesocarnivores, namely, coyote ( Canis latrans ), grey fox ( Urocyon cineroargenteus ) and red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ). Methods Over the summers of 2021 and 2022, we deployed camera-traps in 46 and 96 residential yards, spanning from low-density rural areas (<1 home per km 2 ) to more urban areas (589 homes per km 2 ) in north-western Arkansas, USA. Key results We found that mesocarnivore occupancy was marginally influenced by yard-level features as opposed to landscape composition. Fences reduced the occupancy probability of coyotes, although they were positively associated with the total area of potential shelter sites in a yard. We found that relative abundance of grey fox was highest in yards with poultry, highlighting a likely source of conflict with homeowners. We found that all three species were primarily nocturnal and activity overlap between the species pairs was high. Conclusions Thus, these species may be using spatio-temporal partitioning to avoid antagonistic encounters and our data supported this, with few examples of species occurring in the same yards during the same 24-h period. Implications As the number of residential yards continues to grow, our results suggested that there are ways in which our yards can provide resources to mesocarnivores and that homeowners also have agency to mitigate overlap with mesocarnivores through management of their yard features.

Arkansas, Missouri↗

USGS2011

A hierarchical spatial framework and database for the national river fish habitat condition assessment

Fisheries management programs, such as the National Fish Habitat Action Plan (NFHAP), urgently need a nationwide spatial framework and database for health assessment and policy development to protect and improve riverine systems. To meet this need, we developed a spatial framework and database using National Hydrography Dataset Plus (I-.100,000-scale); http://www.horizon-systems.com/nhdplus). This framework uses interconfluence river reaches and their local and network catchments as fundamental spatial river units and a series of ecological and political spatial descriptors as hierarchy structures to allow users to extract or analyze information at spatial scales that they define. This database consists of variables describing channel characteristics, network position/connectivity, climate, elevation, gradient, and size. It contains a series of catchment-natural and human-induced factors that are known to influence river characteristics. Our framework and database assembles all river reaches and their descriptors in one place for the first time for the conterminous United States. This framework and database provides users with the capability of adding data, conducting analyses, developing management scenarios and regulation, and tracking management progresses at a variety of spatial scales. This database provides the essential data needs for achieving the objectives of NFHAP and other management programs. The downloadable beta version database is available at http://ec2-184-73-40-15.compute-1.amazonaws.com/nfhap/main/.

Fisheries↗

USGS2016

Global perspectives on the urban stream syndrome

Urban streams commonly express degraded physical, chemical, and biological conditions that have been collectively termed the “urban stream syndrome”. The description of the syndrome highlights the broad similarities among these streams relative to their less-impaired counterparts. Awareness of these commonalities has fostered rapid improvements in the management of urban stormwater for the protection of downstream watercourses, but the focus on the similarities among urban streams has obscured meaningful differences among them. Key drivers of stream responses to urbanization can vary greatly among climatological and physiographic regions of the globe, and the differences can be manifested in individual stream channels even through the homogenizing veneer of urban development. We provide examples of differences in natural hydrologic and geologic settings (within similar regions) that can result in different mechanisms of stream ecosystem response to urbanization and, as such, should lead to different management approaches. The idea that all urban streams can be cured using the same treatment is simplistic, but overemphasizing the tremendous differences among natural (or human-altered) systems also can paralyze management. Thoughtful integration of work that recognizes the commonalities of the urban stream syndrome across the globe has benefitted urban stream management. Now we call for a more nuanced understanding of the regional, subregional, and local attributes of any given urban stream and its watershed to advance the physical, chemical, and ecological recovery of these systems.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2025

Near-surface geophysics: Environmental applications

The field of geophysics encompasses a broad and diverse compilation of methodologies that employs principles of physics to characterize properties of earth materials within the subsurface. While geophysical methods have a long history in resource exploration and studies of Earth’s interior, the subdiscipline of “near-surface geophysics” has evolved in recent decades for examination of the shallow, near-surface environment for a range of purposes ranging from archaeological or forensic investigations to assessment of geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and geochemical properties and processes. “Environmental geophysics” are near-surface geophysical studies and methods that focus on understanding natural systems (e.g., watershed hydrology, groundwater–surface water connections, biophysical processes) as well as research pertaining to anthropogenic impacts and land management, (e.g., contamination and remediation, saltwater intrusion, agricultural practices). This field can be further subdivided into subdisciplines focused on specific topics and applications, such as water resources and hydrology (hydrogeophysics) or biologic and microbial processes (biogeophysics). Studies in environmental geophysics span a range of scales, from pore-scale laboratory tests to watershed-scale or regional field experiments. Methods vary by the nature of physics employed, the specific measurement acquired, and how that data is ultimately processed and analyzed to produce interpretable results. There exists further diversity in the acquisition logistics, geometry, and timing of data collection. Geophysical data can be collected in boreholes (one-dimensional, 1-D, vertical profiles), along survey lines (two-dimensional, 2-D, cross-sections), or in dense sensor arrays or gridded profiles (three-dimensional, 3-D, models). Regarding the temporal aspect, studies can conduct one-time geophysical surveys to obtain detailed imaging of subsurface structure or use timelapse and continuous monitoring to investigate variations in subsurface properties over time. The cumulation of all possible permutations of these factors (method, acquisition geometry, survey design, and target application) results in an immense diversity among environmental geophysical studies. Nevertheless, this field remains unified in the pursuit of understanding natural and human-impacted near-surface environments through geophysical investigations. Here we highlight some key references within environmental geophysics. Resources on geophysical theory, acquisition logistics, processing and inversion workflows, and example case studies are categorized into the most common geophysical classes within Geophysical Methods. Lastly, example references for the dominant types of applications in environmental geophysical studies are catalogued in Environmental Applications.

Book chapter↗

USGS2007

The role of ground water in generating streamflow in headwater areas and in maintaining base flow

The volume and sustainability of streamflow from headwaters to downstream reaches commonly depend on contributions from ground water. Streams that begin in extensive aquifers generally have a stable point of origin and substantial discharge in their headwaters. In contrast, streams that begin as discharge from rocks or sediments having low permeability have a point of origin that moves up and down the channel seasonally, have small incipient discharge, and commonly go dry. Nearly all streams need to have some contribution from ground water in order to provide reliable habitat for aquatic organisms. Natural processes and human activities can have a substantial effect on the flow of streams between their headwaters and downstream reaches. Streams lose water to ground water when and where their head is higher than the contiguous water table. Although very common in arid regions, loss of stream water to ground water also is relatively common in humid regions. Evaporation, as well as transpiration from riparian vegetation, causing ground-water levels to decline also can cause loss of stream water. Human withdrawal of ground water commonly causes streamflow to decline, and in some regions has caused streams to cease flowing. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2010

An overview of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission

The Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) is the follow-on mission to Landsat 7 and will be the eighth mission in the Landsat series. The mission is in development via an interagency partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Interior (DOI) / United States Geological Survey (USGS). The LDCM satellite will carry two earth-observing sensors, the Operational Land Imager (OLI) to collect image data for nine spectral bands in the reflective portion of the spectrum and the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) to collect coincident image data for two thermal spectral bands. The LDCM ground segment will control the satellite and will receive, process, archive, and distribute the science data collected by the OLI and TIRS instruments. The USGS Earth Resources Observation & Science Center (EROS) will distribute LDCM data products at no cost to requestors. The mission objective is to continues the Landsat program's collection, archive, and distribution of multispectral imagery affording global, synoptic, and repetitive coverage of the Earth's land surfaces at a scale where natural and human-induced changes can be detected, differentiated, characterized, and monitored over time. The LDCM launch readiness date is currently December, 2012.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2010

Environmental drivers of fish functional diversity and composition in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Freshwater conservation efforts require an understanding of how natural and anthropogenic factors shape the present-day biogeography of native and non-native species. This knowledge need is especially acute for imperiled native fishes in the highly modified Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), USA. In the present study we employed both a taxonomic and functional approach to explore how natural and human-related environmental drivers shape landscape-scale patterns of fish community composition in the LCRB. Our results showed that hydrologic alteration, watershed land use, and regional climate explained 30.3% and 44.7% of the total variation in fish community taxonomic and functional composition, respectively. Watersheds with greater dam densities and upstream storage capacity supported higher non-native functional diversity, suggesting that dams have provided additional "niche opportunities" for non-native equilibrium life-history strategists by introducing new reservoir habitat and modifying downstream flow and thermal regimes. By contrast, watersheds characterized by greater upstream land protection, lower dam densities, and higher variation in spring and summer precipitation supported fish communities with a strong complement of native species (opportunistic-periodic strategists). In conclusion, our study highlights the utility of a life-history approach to better understand the patterns and processes by which fish communities vary along environmental gradients.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2014

An integrated approach to the Taxonomic identification of prehistoric shell ornaments

Shell beads appear to have been one of the earliest examples of personal adornments. Marine shells identified far from the shore evidence long-distance transport and imply networks of exchange and negotiation. However, worked beads lose taxonomic clues to identification, and this may be compounded by taphonomic alteration. Consequently, the significance of this key early artefact may be underestimated. We report the use of bulk amino acid composition of the stable intra-crystalline proteins preserved in shell biominerals and the application of pattern recognition methods to a large dataset (777 samples) to demonstrate that taxonomic identification can be achieved at genus level. Amino acid analyses are fast (<2 hours per sample) and micro-destructive (sample size <2 mg). Their integration with non-destructive techniques provides a valuable and affordable tool, which can be used by archaeologists and museum curators to gain insight into early exploitation of natural resources by humans. Here we combine amino acid analyses, macro- and microstructural observations (by light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy) and Raman spectroscopy to try to identify the raw material used for beads discovered at the Early Bronze Age site of Great Cornard (UK). Our results show that at least two shell taxa were used and we hypothesise that these were sourced locally.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2019

Age and growth of stocked juvenile Shoal Bass in a tailwater: Environmental variation and accuracy of daily age estimates

Otolith microanalysis is often used to assess population age structure and growth of fishes during their early stages. Shoal Bass Micropterus cataractae is a recently described species of conservation concern and little is known regarding factors affecting their recruitment. In 2004, Georgia Department of Natural Resources (GADNR) and the US National Park Service (NPS) stocked Shoal Bass marked with oxytetracycline (OTC) in the Chattahoochee River near Atlanta, Georgia in an effort to restore this population, creating known-age fish to examine the effect of environment on daily age accuracy. We obtained samples of stocked juvenile (<150 mm) Shoal Bass from standard monitoring that occurred approximately 30–60 days after stocking in the Chattahoochee River to 1) validate daily rings for estimating age, hatch dates, and growth rates for stocked age-0 Shoal Bass, and 2) evaluate the effect of habitat (location) on age bias. Shoal Bass otoliths were examined for OTC marks and daily rings were counted in reference to OTC marks to assess age estimation accuracy. Age estimation accuracy ranged from -2 to -25 days and was influenced by the environment where Shoal Bass were captured, with greater inaccuracy in colder water temperatures. Fish collected from locations with colder temperatures displayed closer spacing of daily rings, potentially leading to greater underestimation of age. Growth rates of stocked Shoal Bass, corrected for age estimation error, ranged from 0.5 mm/day to 0.8 mm/day. This study demonstrates the effect of environmental variability on age inaccuracy and subsequent interpretation of results. Incorporating methods to assess age estimation accuracy is needed to understand interspecific differences in recruitment among black bass species in the variety of natural and human-modified environments they inhabit.

Georgia↗

USGS2020

Molecular sequencing and morphological identification reveal similar patterns in native bee communities across public and private grasslands of eastern North Dakota

Bees play a key role in the functioning of human-modified and natural ecosystems by pollinating agricultural crops and wild plant communities. Global pollinator conservation efforts need large-scale and long-term monitoring to detect changes in species’ demographic patterns and shifts in bee community structure. The objective of this project was to test a molecular sequencing pipeline that would utilize a commonly used locus, produce accurate and precise identifications consistent with morphological identifications, and generate data that are both qualitative and quantitative. We applied this amplicon sequencing pipeline to native bee communities sampled across Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and native grasslands in eastern North Dakota. We found the 28S LSU locus to be more capable of discriminating between species than the 18S SSU rRNA locus, and in some cases even resolved instances of cryptic species or morphologically ambiguous species complexes. Overall, we found the amplicon sequencing method to be a qualitatively accurate representation of the sampled bee community richness and species identity, especially when a well-curated database of known 28S LSU sequences is available. Both morphological identification and molecular sequencing revealed similar patterns in native bee community structure across CRP lands and native prairie. Additionally, a genetic algorithm approach to compute taxon-specific correction factors using a small subset of the most concordant samples demonstrated that a high level of quantitative accuracy could be possible if the specimens are fresh and processed soon after collection. Here we provide a first step to a molecular pipeline for identifying insect pollinator communities. This tool should prove useful for future national monitoring efforts as use of molecular tools becomes more affordable and as numbers of 28S LSU sequences for pollinator species increase in publicly-available databases.

North Dakota↗

USGS2021

Virus shedding kinetics and unconventional virulence tradeoffs

Tradeoff theory, which postulates that virulence provides both transmission costs and benefits for pathogens, has become widely adopted by the scientific community. Although theoretical literature exploring virulence-tradeoffs is vast, empirical studies validating various assumptions still remain sparse. In particular, truncation of transmission duration as a cost of virulence has been difficult to quantify with robust controlled in vivo studies. We sought to fill this knowledge gap by investigating how transmission rate and duration were associated with virulence for infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). Using host mortality to quantify virulence and viral shedding to quantify transmission, we found that IHNV did not conform to classical tradeoff theory. More virulent genotypes of the virus were found to have longer transmission durations due to lower recovery rates of infected hosts, but the relationship was not saturating as assumed by tradeoff theory. Furthermore, the impact of host mortality on limiting transmission duration was minimal and greatly outweighed by recovery. Transmission rate differences between high and low virulence genotypes were also small and inconsistent. Ultimately, more virulent genotypes were found to have the overall fitness advantage, and there was no apparent constraint on the evolution of increased virulence for IHNV. However, using a mathematical model parameterized with experimental data, it was found that host culling resurrected the virulence tradeoff and provided low virulence genotypes with the advantage. Human-induced or natural culling, as well as host population fragmentation, may be some of the mechanisms by which virulence diversity is maintained in nature. This work highlights the importance of considering non-classical virulence tradeoffs.

PLoS Pathogens↗

USGS2006

Denitrification across landscapes and waterscapes: A synthesis

Denitrification is a critical process regulating the removal of bioavailable nitrogen (N) from natural and human-altered systems. While it has been extensively studied in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, there has been limited communication among denitrification scientists working in these individual systems. Here, we compare rates of denitrification and controlling factors across a range of ecosystem types. We suggest that terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems in which denitrification occurs can be organized along a continuum ranging from (1) those in which nitrification and denitrification are tightly coupled in space and time to (2) those in which nitrate production and denitrification are relatively decoupled. In aquatic ecosystems, N inputs influence denitrification rates whereas hydrology and geomorphology influence the proportion of N inputs that are denitrified. Relationships between denitrification and water residence time and N load are remarkably similar across lakes, river reaches, estuaries, and continental shelves. Spatially distributed global models of denitrification suggest that continental shelf sediments account for the largest portion (44%) of total global denitrification, followed by terrestrial soils (22%) and oceanic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs; 14%). Freshwater systems (groundwater, lakes, rivers) account for about 20% and estuaries 1% of total global denitrification. Denitrification of land-based N sources is distributed somewhat differently. Within watersheds, the amount of land-based N denitrified is generally highest in terrestrial soils, with progressively smaller amounts denitrified in groundwater, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and estuaries. A number of regional exceptions to this general trend of decreasing denitrification in a downstream direction exist, including significant denitrification in continental shelves of N from terrestrial sources. Though terrestrial soils and groundwater are responsible for much denitrification at the watershed scale, per-area denitrification rates in soils and groundwater (kg N·km −2 ·yr −1 ) are, on average, approximately one-tenth the per-area rates of denitrification in lakes, rivers, estuaries, continental shelves, or OMZs. A number of potential approaches to increase denitrification on the landscape, and thus decrease N export to sensitive coastal systems exist. However, these have not generally been widely tested for their effectiveness at scales required to significantly reduce N export at the whole watershed scale.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2012

Evaluating the predictive abilities of community occupancy models using AUC while accounting for imperfect detection

The ability to accurately predict patterns of species' occurrences is fundamental to the successful management of animal communities. To determine optimal management strategies, it is essential to understand species-habitat relationships and how species habitat use is related to natural or human-induced environmental changes. Using five years of monitoring data in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA, we developed four multi-species hierarchical models for estimating amphibian wetland use that account for imperfect detection during sampling. The models were designed to determine which factors (wetland habitat characteristics, annual trend effects, spring/summer precipitation, and previous wetland occupancy) were most important for predicting future habitat use. We used the models to make predictions of species occurrences in sampled and unsampled wetlands and evaluated model projections using additional data. Using a Bayesian approach, we calculated a posterior distribution of receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) values, which allowed us to explicitly quantify the uncertainty in the quality of our predictions and to account for false negatives in the evaluation dataset. We found that wetland hydroperiod (the length of time that a wetland holds water) as well as the occurrence state in the prior year were generally the most important factors in determining occupancy. The model with only habitat covariates predicted species occurrences well; however, knowledge of wetland use in the previous year significantly improved predictive ability at the community level and for two of 12 species/species complexes. Our results demonstrate the utility of multi-species models for understanding which factors affect species habitat use of an entire community (of species) and provide an improved methodology using AUC that is helpful for quantifying the uncertainty in model predictions while explicitly accounting for detection biases.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Development of a reproducible method for determining quantity of water and its configuration in a marsh landscape

Coastal Louisiana is a dynamic and ever-changing landscape. From 1956 to 2010, over 3,734 km 2 of Louisiana's coastal wetlands have been lost due to a combination of natural and human-induced activities. The resulting landscape constitutes a mosaic of conditions from highly deteriorated to relatively stable with intact landmasses. Understanding how and why coastal landscapes change over time is critical to restoration and rehabilitation efforts. Historically, changes in marsh pattern (i.e., size and spatial distribution of marsh landmasses and water bodies) have been distinguished using visual identification by individual researchers. Difficulties associated with this approach include subjective interpretation, uncertain reproducibility, and laborious techniques. In order to minimize these limitations, this study aims to expand existing tools and techniques via a computer-based method, which uses geospatial technologies for determining shifts in landscape patterns. Our method is based on a raster framework and uses landscape statistics to develop conditions and thresholds for a marsh classification scheme. The classification scheme incorporates land and water classified imagery and a two-part classification system: (1) ratio of water to land, and (2) configuration and connectivity of water within wetland landscapes to evaluate changes in marsh patterns. This analysis system can also be used to trace trajectories in landscape patterns through space and time. Overall, our method provides a more automated means of quantifying landscape patterns and may serve as a reliable landscape evaluation tool for future investigations of wetland ecosystem processes in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Louisiana↗

USGS1993

A spatial simulation model of hydrology and vegetation dynamics in semi-permanent prairie wetlands

The objective of this study was to construct a spatial simulation model of the vegetation dynamics in semi-permanent prairie wetlands. A hydrologic submodel estimated water levels based on precipitation, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration. A vegetation submodel calculated the amount and distribution of emergent cover and open water using a geographic information system. The response of vegetation to water-level changes was based on seed bank composition, seedling recruitment and establishment, and plant survivorship. The model was developed and tested using data from the Cottonwood Lake study site in North Dakota. Data from semi-permanent wetland P1 were used to calibrate the model. Data from a second wetland, P4, were used to evaluate model performance. Simulation results were compared with actual water data from 1797 through 1989. Test results showed that differences between calculated and observed water levels were within 10 cm 75% of the time. Open water over the past decade ranged from 0 to 7% in wetland P4 and from 0 to 8% in submodel simulations. Several model parameters including evapotranspiration and timing of seedling germination could be improved with more complex techniques or relatively minor adjustments. Despite these differences the model adequately represented vegetation dynamics of prairie wetlands and can be used to examine wetland response to natural or human-induced climate change.

Ecological Applications↗