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At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources

Spatial contexts for temporal variability in alpine vegetation under ongoing climate change

A framework to monitor mountain summit vegetation (The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments, GLORIA) was initiated in 1997. GLORIA results should be taken within a regional context of the spatial variability of alpine tundra. Changes observed at GLORIA sites in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA are quantified within the context of the range of variability observed in alpine tundra across much of western North America. Dissimilarity is calculated and used in nonmetric multidimensional scaling for repeated measures of vascular species cover at 14 GLORIA sites with 525 nearby sites and with 436 sites in western North America. The lengths of the trajectories of the GLORIA sites in ordination space are compared to the dimensions of the space created by the larger datasets. The absolute amount of change on the GLORIA summits over 5 years is high, but the degree of change is small relative to the geographical context. The GLORIA sites are on the margin of the ordination volumes with the large datasets. The GLORIA summit vegetation appears to be specialized, arguing for the intrinsic value of early observed change in limited niche space.

Montana

Tropical forests and global change: Biogeochemical responses and opportunities for cross-site comparisons, an organized INSPIRE session at the 108th Annual Meeting, Ecological Society of America, Portland, Oregon, USA, August 2023

Tropical forests play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle. These ecosystems maintain the highest rates of net primary production (NPP) on Earth (Hengl et al ., 2017 ), contain c . 30% of terrestrial C stocks (Jobbagy & Jackson, 2000 ), and have some of the largest stores of fine-root biomass globally (Jackson et al ., 1996 ), as well as higher fine-root production and turnover rates compared with other biomes (Cusack et al ., 2021 ). Tropical forest responses to projected warming, altered rainfall regimes, and elevated CO 2 concentrations (IPCC, 2021 ) are likely to be different from other ecosystems because of their unique characteristics (Box 1 ), making targeted research and model development important for understanding tropical forest–climate feedbacks. There is now a critical mass of long-term global change field experiments and modeling efforts in tropical forests, yet thus far there has been little synthesis, cross-site comparison, or multi-site standardized experimentation among tropical forests to help us understand how these biomes are changing. An organized INSPIRE session at the 108 th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America set out to tackle just this. Speakers covered large-scale tropical forest field experiments and modeling efforts, with an emphasis on changes in ecosystem biogeochemistry under warming, drying, elevated atmospheric CO 2 , and changing nutrient status. In this Meeting report, we provide an overview of the large-scale global change experiments presented and highlight the main objectives and opportunities for tropical forest research that emerged, including cross-site comparisons and integration with ecosystem-scale models (Fig. 1 ).

New Phytologist

A reference data set of hillslope rainfall-runoff response, Panola Mountain Research Watershed, United States

Although many hillslope hydrologic investigations have been conducted in different climate, topographic, and geologic settings, subsurface stormflow remains a poorly characterized runoff process. Few, if any, of the existing data sets from these hillslope investigations are available for use by the scientific community for model development and validation or conceptualization of subsurface stormflow. We present a high-resolution spatial and temporal rainfall-runoff data set generated from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed trenched experimental hillslope. The data set includes surface and subsurface (bedrock surface) topographic information and time series of lateral subsurface flow at the trench, rainfall, and subsurface moisture content (distributed soil moisture content and groundwater levels) from January to June 2002. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Water Resources Research

Klamath Basin: A watershed approach to support habitat restoration, species recovery, and water resource planning

Water allocation among human and natural resource uses in the American West is challenging. Western rivers have been largely managed for hydropower, irrigation, drinking water, and navigation. Today land and water use practices have gained importance, particularly as aging dams are faced with re-licensing requirements and provisions of the Endangered Species and Clean Water Acts. Rising demand for scarce water heightens the need for scientific research to predict consequences of management actions on habitats, human resource use, and fish and wildlife. Climate change, introduction of invasive species, or restoration of fish passage can have large, landscape-scaled consequences - research must expand to encompass the appropriate scale and by applying multiple scientific disciplines to complex ecosystem challenges improve the adaptive management framework for decision-making.

Oregon; California

Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to Present

The riparian vegetation within the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter Reservation), within the Upper Gila River watershed extending from southwestern New Mexico into southeastern Arizona, provides immense ecological and cultural value to the people of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter referred to as the Tribe/Tribal) but has experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century because of fluctuations in climate and a series of human-induced and natural disturbances. This research addresses these challenges by analyzing the riparian vegetation within the Upper Gila River watershed using aerial and satellite imagery, and by documenting the direct relationship to fluctuations in climate conditions. Results from this study would be provided to the Tribe to help the Tribe develop a restoration plan for their riparian forests. We show that the riparian vegetation has largely increased overall in greenness throughout the study period (i.e., 1985 through 2021), despite periods of drought conditions. This extends to the end of our study period particularly with native vegetation in the upper watershed. However, non-native and invasive tamarisk vegetation within much of the lower watershed has shown declining trends and increasing vegetative stress. Furthermore, these areas have experienced a large increase in wildfire presence and other disturbances. Nevertheless, Tribal restoration applications have been shown to increase native vegetation plant cover, suggesting that restoration activities have been successful overall.

Arizona, New Mexico

Vulnerabilities to climate change of Massachusetts animal species of greatest conservation need

Over the last decade, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has addressed the potential and actual impacts of climate change on state flora and fauna. The state’s involvement began in 2007 when, led by the Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (DFW) and assisted by Manomet Center for Con-servation Research, it carried out one of the first habitat vulnerability assessments in North America (Manomet, 2010). The new methods and processes that resulted were later applied to vulnerability assessments in North America and elsewhere. In 2011, the state assisted the North-eastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) in organizing and leading a pio-neering three-year, thirteen-state research effort to evaluate the vulnerabilities of fish and wild-life habitats to climate change in the northeast, from Maine south to West Virginia (NEAFWA, 2012). This focus on climate change vulnerabilities led to three important early realizations: (1) simply categorizing and scoring vulnerabilities might not lead to better conservation outcomes. It was vital to also understand why some resources were more or less vulnerable to climate change in order to identify potential intervention points on which conservation actions and strategies could be based. (2) simply producing research results was not enough; these results had to be cast as specific conservation actions. Moreover (3), these actions needed to be communicated in a useful form to conservation “actors”, such as state agencies, land trusts, land managers, etc. These real-izations led to the next step on the Commonwealth’s journey to effective conservation in an age of climate change - the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool (CAT).

Report

Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using precipitation forecasts in climate models improves the ability to predict the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow and groundwater levels over the basin. However, significant conditional bias exists in all the three modeling schemes, which indicates the need to consider improved modeling schemes as well as the availability of longer time-series of observed hydroclimatic information over the basin.

Georgia

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment— Climate and weather topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are significant management, conservation, and economic issues in the western U.S. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (hereinafter, “Needs”) for informing the actions proposed under the five topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed four Needs identified under the Climate and Weather topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs broadly focused on understanding the potential effects of climate change on vegetative resilience to inform restoration of sagebrush rangelands. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (hereinafter, “Next Steps”) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (that is, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 92 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Climate and Weather topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: studies of the complex set of climatic relationships that influence sagebrush rangeland restoration and seeding success; the identification of seed collection areas across the range of environmental variability inhabited by target restoration species; and develop predictive models to assess targeted restoration species’ responses to mid-century climatic conditions. The Need addressed poorly was the identification of native plant species, genotypes and ecotypes, and seed mixes that may be resilient to a changing climate. The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan, and can inform updates of other relevant science planning documents as needed.

Open-File Report

Environmental drivers in mangrove establishment and early development: A review

Mangroves have a global distribution within coastal tropical and subtropical climates, and have even expanded to some temperate locales. Where they do occur, mangroves provide a plethora of goods and services, ranging from coastal protection from storms and erosion to direct income for human societies. The mangrove literature has become rather voluminous, prompting many subdisciplines within a field that earlier in the 20th century received little focus. Much of this research has become diffuse by sheer numbers, requiring detailed syntheses to make research results widely available to resource managers. In this review, we take an inclusive approach in focusing on eco-physiological and growth constraints to the establishment and early development of mangrove seedlings in the intertidal zone. This is a critical life stage for mangroves, i.e., the period between dispersal and recruitment to the sapling stage. We begin with some of the research that has set the precedent for seedling-level eco-physiological research in mangroves, and then we focus on recent advances (circa. 1995 to present) in our understanding of temperature, carbon dioxide, salinity, light, nutrient, flooding, and specific biotic influences on seedling survival and growth. As such, we take a new approach in describing seedling response to global factors (e.g., temperature) along with site-specific factors (e.g., salinity). All variables will strongly influence the future of seedling dynamics in ways perhaps not yet documented in mature forests. Furthermore, understanding how different mangrove species can respond to global factors and regional influences is useful for diagnosing observed mortality within mangrove wetlands, managed or natural. This review provides an updated eco-physiological knowledge base for future research and reforestation activity, and for understanding important links among climate change, local physico-chemical condition, and establishment and early growth of mangrove seedlings.

Aquatic Botany

Climatic changes and effect on wild sheep habitat

Wild sheep are sensitive to environmental change and may be an effective indicator species of climate change in arctic and high mountain ecosystems. To understand the effects of climatic changes on Dall sheep habitat, U.S. Geological Survey scientists have been studying selected areas in Alaska since 2007. The research focus is on forage quality, nutrient levels, and changes resulting from warming or cooling climate trends. Preliminary results indicate significant changes in Dall sheep diet accompanying vegetation changes and upslope retreat of glaciers.

Alaska

Comparing snowpack meteorological inputs to support regional wet snow avalanche forecasting

Wet snow avalanches are predicted to increase in frequency with climate change and are often difficult to forecast. Improving our understanding of wet snow avalanche timing will help with current forecasting challenges. The onset of wet snow avalanching is closely tied to the temporal progression of liquid water flow through the seasonal snowpack. Measuring the flow of water through the snowpack in-situ is difficult due to the spatial variability of snow depth and structure. However, physical snowpack models can potentially simulate this process. The accuracy of snowpack models is heavily dependent upon the quality of the meteorological input data. A thorough investigation of model output differences using several different meteorological inputs for forecasting water movement and wet snow avalanches has not yet been thoroughly investigated. Here, we evaluate indicators of regional wet snow avalanches produced by the SNOWPACK model using different meteorological input. We compare the accuracy of SNOWPACK modeled outputs driven by two different numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models: the High-Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) and the North American Model (NAMnest). We leverage hourly automated weather station data, daily operational avalanche observations along the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park, Montana, United States, and in-situ snow stratigraphy and wetness profile observations to validate the SNOWPACK modeled outputs. This research is directly applicable to avalanche forecasting operations and future avalanche research as wet snow avalanche timing evolves due to climate change.

Montana

Early career climate communications and networking

The Department of the Interior and the U.S. Geological Survey have made it a priority to train the next generation of scientists and resource managers. The Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CSC) and consortium institutions are working to contribute to this initiative by supporting and building a network of students across the U.S. interested in the climate sciences and climate adaptation. The purpose of this project was to support the development of a national early career communication platform to facilitate and increase information sharing and networking across the CASCs and consortium institutions. This was accomplished by working with the Early Career Climate Forum (ECCF), a CASC-supported science network dedicated to improving research practice through communication and collaboration. Project goals included the redesign and expansion of a pilot website that was originally developed by early career scientists in attendance of the 2012 Northwest Climate Science Bootcamp as well as adding services such as a regular blog, email list-serve, database of members, training modules for CASC retreats and bootcamps, all directed towards the advancement of early career scientists in the field of climate change science and adaptation.

Conference Paper

A whole ecosystem approach to studying climate change in interior Alaska

Yukon River Basin Principal Investigators Workshop; Portland, Oregon, 18-20 January 2011; High latitudes are known to be particularly susceptible to climate warming, leading to an emphasis of field and modeling research on arctic regions. Subarctic and boreal regions such as the Yukon River Basin (YRB) of interior Alaska and western Canada are less well studied, although they encompass large areas that are vulnerable to changes in forest composition, permafrost distribution, and hydrology. There is an urgent need to understand the resiliency and vulnerability of these complex ecosystems as well as their feedbacks to the global climate system. Consequently, U.S. Geological Survey scientists, with other federal agency, university, and private industry partners, is focusing subarctic interdisciplinary studies on the Beaver Creek Wild and Scenic River watershed (http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/content/ak/en/prog/nlcs/beavercrk_nwsr.html) and Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge (http://yukonflats.fws.gov/) in the YRB, south and west of Fort Yukon, Alaska. These areas are national treasures of wetlands, lakes, and uplands that support large populations of wildlife and waterfowl and are home to vibrant native Alaskan communities that depend on the area for a subsistence lifestyle.

Alaska

Global biotic events evident in the Paleogene marine strata of the eastern San Francisco Bay area, California

Paleogene marine strata in the eastern San Francisco Bay area are exposed in discontinuous outcrops in the various tectonic blocks. Although there are many missing intervals, the strata were previously thought to span most of the Paleocene and Eocene. Revision of biochronology and calibration to the international time scale as well as to the global oxygen isotope curve and sea-level curves indicate that the strata are latest Paleocene through middle Eocene in age and contain faunal changes that are linked to the overall global climate trends and hyperthermals of that time. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, third Eocene thermal maximum, early Eocene climatic optimum, and middle Eocene climatic optimum are all identified in the eastern San Francisco Bay marine strata. The dominance of smoothly finished, dissolution-resistant agglutinated benthic foraminiferal species corresponds with a rapid shoaling and rapid deepening (overcorrection) of the calcium compensation depth associated with the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The benthic foraminiferal extinction event was a dramatic turnover of benthic foraminiferal species that occurred shortly after the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Opportunistic species such as Bulimina , which indicate environmental stress and lower oxygen conditions, are commonly associated with the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Environmental changes similar to those observed during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum also characterize the third Eocene thermal maximum, based on the agglutinated and opportunistic species. The early Eocene climatic optimum is noted by the presence of foraminiferal assemblages that indicate a stable, warmer water mass, abundant food, and an influx of terrigenous material. The onset and end of the middle Eocene climatic optimum are recognized by the dominance of siliceous microfossils. This research updates the age and environmental interpretations of the Paleogene formations occurring in the vicinity of Mount Diablo, eastern San Francisco Bay area. The revised interpretations, which are based on foraminifers and calcareous nannoplankton, make it possible to identify various global climatic and biotic events.

California

Bioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i

Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (T min , T mean , T max ) and mean precipitation (P mean ) data at 250 m resolution. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We summarized the monthly data from these two climate projections into a suite of 19 standard bioclimatic variables that provide detailed information about annual and seasonal mean climatic conditions for the Hawaiian Islands. These bioclimatic variables are available for three climate scenarios: baseline climate (1990-2009) and future climate (2080-2099) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (IPRC projections only) and RCP 8.5 (both IPRC and NCAR projections) climate scenarios. The resulting dataset provides a more robust set of climate products that can be used for modeling purposes, impact studies, and management planning.

Hawaii

Workshop: Nature-based solutions to ecological and economic problems caused by extreme precipitation events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate by using these natural solutions, however, they require accurate information about the projected increase in extreme rainfall events and the effectiveness and costs of a variety of solutions. To provide this information, researchers must understand the decisions that managers are making and the challenges they face. In this project, researchers will host a workshop to facilitate knowledge sharing between natural resource managers, climate modelers, and scientists studying natural solutions. Participants will discuss climate projections related to extreme precipitation events in the region, as well as the management implications and decision-making challenges associated with these events. These conversations will cultivate collaborative relationships between managers and researchers to address critical knowledge gaps and improve future management efforts in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

Upper Mississippi River basin

Responses of stream nitrate and dissolved organic carbon loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeast USA

[1] In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the relationship of catchment wetness to stream nitrate and DOC loadings. We modeled changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nutrient loadings respond to climate change. Model results for the 2070–2099 time period suggest that stream nutrient loadings during both the dormant and growing seasons will respond to climate change. During a warmer climate, growing season stream fluxes (runoff +20%, nitrate +57%, and DOC +58%) increase as more precipitation (+28%) and quick flow (+39%) occur during a longer growing season (+43 days). During the dormant season, stream water and nutrient loadings decrease. Net annual stream runoff (+8%) and DOC loading (+9%) increases are commensurate with the magnitude of the average increase of net annual precipitation (+7%). Net annual stream water and DOC loadings are primarily affected by increased dormant season precipitation. In contrast, decreased annual loading of stream nitrate (−2%) reflects a larger effect of growing season controls on stream nitrate and the effects of lengthened growing seasons in a warmer climate. Our findings suggest that leaching of nitrate and DOC from catchment soils will be affected by anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream loadings in the northeastern United States.

Vermont

Managed aquifer recharge in snow-fed river basins: What, why and how?

What does climate change mean for snow-fed river basins? Climate change poses unique challenges in snow-fed river basins across the western United States because the majority of water supply originates as snow (Dettinger, Udall, & Georgakakos, 2015). In the Sierra Nevada, recent observations include changes in snow accumulation and snowmelt, and shifts in peak streamflow timing (Barnhart et al., 2016; Hatchett et al., 2017; Kim & Jain, 2010; McCabe, Wolock, & Valentin, 2018; Mote, Li, Lettenmaier, Xiao, & Engel, 2018). Such changes upstream alter surface water deliveries downstream, as well as groundwater recharge utilized as both primary and supplemental water supply (Godsey et al., 2014; Harpold, 2016; Jasechko et al., 2014). basin where snowmelt runoff produces substantial water supply to meet diverse agricultural, environmental and urban water demand (Figure 1). The East and West Forks join at the confluence of the Carson River near the north end of the Carson Valley, a rich agricultural region (40,000 acres) that grows primarily alfalfa hay. The majority of irrigators rely on surface water delivered through a network of earthen ditches constructed in the mid-19th and early 20th centuries. Flow through these earthen networks and the practice of flood irrigation contribute significantly to groundwater recharge. Because no upstream surface water reservoirs exist, snowpack that accumulates through winter and melts slowly through spring has acted as a “natural” reservoir, providing ample supply through the summer irrigati agricultural, environmental and urban water demand (Figure 1). The East and West Forks join at the confluence of the Carson River near the north end of the season. Some irrigators have permitted access to supplemental groundwater that is useful during periods of drought for augmenting shortfalls in surface water delivery. Groundwater is the primary source of municipal and industrial water supply for surrounding communities (e.g., Carson City, Minden, Gardnerville, Dayton). Across the basin, water use is highly regulated through federal, tribal, state and local water-sharing agreements based on prior appropriation doctrine (Wilds, 2014). Carson River surface water allocations follow the Alpine Decree, initiated by the United States Department of Interior in 1925 and signed into law in 1980, following 55 years of litigation, to adjudicate surface water rights to individual parties (NDWP, 1999). The Alpine Decree acknowledges return flows to lower river segments, and thus each river segment is distributed autonomously. This means that the most junior water right on an upper segment can be fulfilled before considering the most senior water right on a lower segment. Ultimately, the ruling is at the discretion of the Federal Water Master to satisfy the needs of each water right Downstream of Carson Valley, surface water flows are stored in Lahontan Reservoir, the nation’s first desert reclamation project (est. 1906), where releases are managed to meet the Newland’s Project irrigation water demand and for environmental use on the Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge. Flows from the Carson River are supplemented through diversions from the Truckee River via the Truckee Canal, resulting in a trans-basin water supply system. How is the Water for the Seasons research program informing snow-fed river basin communities? In the Truckee-Carson River System, researchers and local water managers are working together to assess climate change impacts to water supply and explore how model simulations can produce useful information to support local climate adaptation. Twelve key water managers represent agricultural, environmental, urban and regulatory water-use communities, and bring to the table diverse input and perspectives on how to adapt to climate change. Hydrologists use this input to craft scenarios and simulations that meet the information needs of local water managers. Biannual workshops provide an opportunity for information exchange, where researchers and key water managers generate new knowledge of river system function. That is, researchers share results of models that examine the physical potential, and managers validate the on-the-ground potential, further informing the research process. Coincident to this research program, the region faced a prolonged drought period (2012-2016) with historically low snowpack, followed by a historic wet year (2017) that brought winter and spring flooding as a result of atmospheric river storm events (Sterle et al., 2019). For the Carson River, an important observation made by managers was that peak streamflow that had traditionally coincided with peak irrigation demands, had shifted to earlier in the spring, with summer baseflow also decreasing (Sterle & Singletary, 2017). Managers shared with researchers concerns over potential future impacts that changing snowpack will have on surface water deliveries and reliance on groundwater, as the region’s population and economy continue to grow. During workshops that occurred over this period, local water managers and researchers discussed ways to evaluate water distribution and use that honors the existing legal framework and accounts for changing snowpack regimes (amount, rain versus snow, timing). In response to managers growing interest, researchers introduced the concept of managed aquifer recharge as one potential strategy to adapt and enhance regional water sustainability. What is managed aquifer recharge? Simply stated, managed aquifer recharge is the intentional recharge of structures to spread water over agricultural lands, allowing water to naturally infiltrate into the groundwater system (Bouwer, 1999; Niswonger et al., 2017). The latter may occur during the irrigation season by applying excess water, or during the nonirrigation season when evapotranspiration losses are low. Figure 2 illustrates managed aquifer recharge in a snow-fed river basin, where streamflow generated from snowmelt runoff is diverted to agricultural lands to recharge the aquifer. Such flood irrigation practices, including water delivery through earthen ditch networks, provide incidental but significant aquifer recharge through seepage and deep drainage beneath fields (Niswonger, Allander, & Jeton, 2014). The effects of managed aquifer recharge can vary depending on the location and intensity of practice. For example, implementing managed aquifer recharge water into the groundwater system (Dillon, 2009). This differs from the incidental recharge that may occur as part of normal irrigation practices. Managed recharge may occur by injection into the aquifer through existingwells, or by using existing conveyance adjacent to/along the river’s floodplain has the potential to enhance late-season instream flows due to increased return flows, resulting in greater downstream deliveries as well as improving ecological conditions (Niswonger et al., 2017). Implementing managed aquifer recharge away from the river’s floodplain has the potential to enhance groundwater supply which is increasingly relied upon during surface water shortage (Green et al., 2011), by storing water in available aquifer space in the deep aquifer. At the basin scale, managed aquifer recharge may lead to regional groundwater sustainability. Is the Carson River Basin a candidate for managed aquifer recharge? The physical limitations to implementing managed aquifer recharge in the Carson River Basin hinges on three key factors. The first factor relates to the physical connectivity between rivers and streams, and the irrigation delivery network of canals and ditches that divert water to agricultural lands (Niswonger et al., 2017). In the Carson River Basin the mechanisms for getting water to fields is already in place. Thus, intentionally routing high flows that occur in wet years through this system during the nonirrigation season would mimic what occurs naturally during the irrigation season. The second factor relates to the occurrence of atmospheric river storm events that deliver large amounts of precipitation to the region, much greater than average (Dettinger et al., 2015). With increased frequency and intensity projected under a warmer climate, such events have the potential to produce excess water over short periods of time that could be stored through mechanisms such as managed aquifer recharge (Niswonger et al., 2017). The third factor relates to the change in snowpack accumulation and shifts in snowmelt timing observed elsewhere in the Sierra Nevada (e.g., Godsey et al., 2014; Mote et al., 2018). Having a mechanism in place to maximize use of earlier snowmelt and shifts in streamflow timing could be advantageous and enhance regional groundwater sustainability. As part of the Water for the Seasons study, a hypothetical scenario was developed to determine the feasibility of managed aquifer recharge in the Carson River Basin, assuming no legal constraints. During “wet” or above-average water years, irrigators in the Upper Carson Valley would divert high flows and spread water over agricultural lands during the nonirrigation season. Assuming flows are abundant and “early,” diversions would begin prior to the growing season, when water would otherwise flow downstream to the Lahontan Reservoir. During “dry” years or drought periods, when surface water availability is less, irrigators in the Upper Carson Valley could augment surface water shortages with groundwater, allowing available surface water flows to flow downstream. Researchers hypothesize the amount of water has the potential to boost baseflow to support environmental instream flows, for example. What concerns have local water managers expressed? The hypothetical managed aquifer recharge scenario was presented to water managers in a workshop setting. Presentations included an overview of the hydrologic and operations modeling tools used to evaluate managed aquifer recharge by simulating the timing and distribution of water in the upper watershed. Specifically, in the Upper Carson Valley, a hydrologic model (GSFLOW) simulates streamflow driven by snowmelt, and surface and groundwater interactions, while a river basin operations model (MODSIM) allocates water according to the prior appropriation doctrine in the basin (see Figure 1) (Morway, Niswonger, & Triana, 2016; Niswonger et al., 2017). Integrating these two modeling tools advances the evaluation of climate impacts on water availability in agricultural communities and the resulting impacts of alternative management strategies (Morway et al., 2016). When asked about the viability of managed aquifer recharge, the perspectives of 11 managers varied (Figure 3). Regardless of rating, all managers questioned, “How would thisreally work?” Several managers questioned whether models could simulate the connectivity between surface and groundwater to accurately quantify changes to instream flow. Others raised concerns that managed aquifer recharge violates the Alpine Decree and Nevada Water Law. Still others requested researchers consider alternatives that could work within the confines of current (2019) water law. Managers posed specific questions that should be considered when evaluating the potential for managed aquifer recharge. For example: What triggers implementation of managed aquifer recharge?How “high” or “low” must annual flows be to initiate managed aquifer recharge? When in the water year is this determined? Where exactly in the Carson Valley is managed aquiferre charge possible? For example, what areas away from the floodplain could ensure long-term storage? Can model simulations quantify potential benefits and consequences system-wide?Would this information support decision-making, such as permitting of additional supplemental groundwater rights? How are researchers going to address managers’ research questions? Managers’ perspectives help to validate the on-the-ground potential of particular strategies and further refine alternative management scenarios. For example, understanding that managers are concerned with oversaturated fields helps researchers to define conditions in the model, such as what defines a wet versus “too” wet type of year and where to focus irrigation for managed aquifer recharge. Incorporating these nuances provides more accurate quantification of the potential benefits and consequences for users across the basin. Modeling is underway to simulate managed aquifer recharge scenarios and explore basin-wide implications. Researchers and local water managers will convene to collaboratively review results and further assess whether this or other strategies could work under the confines of existing water law. Subsequent fact sheets will present these findings.

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