SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Agricultural Sciences”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources

USGS2024

Managed wetlands for climate action: Potential greenhouse gas and subsidence mitigation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

In the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta), widespread drainage of historical wetlands has led to extensive subsidence and peat carbon losses, as well as high ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Large-scale wetland restoration and conversion to rice fields has the potential to mitigate these effects while conferring flood protection and creating habitat for wetland species. To explore the scale of these potential benefits, this study evaluated the effects of seven Delta-wide land-use scenarios on carbon stocks, land-surface elevation, GHG emissions, and habitat. Peat mapping and data from peat cores indicate that soil carbon stocks have decreased between the early 1800s and 2010s from 288 ± 15 to 145 ± 14 million metric tons (Mt) of carbon (C). If existing land uses continue, the Delta could lose an additional 8.3 Mt C during the coming 40 years, equal to average GHG emissions of 1.2 Mt CO2 equivalents (CO2e) yr-1. Future restoration and rice-farming scenarios indicate that wetland restoration could theoretically halt GHG emissions, converting the Delta from a large GHG source to a weak net source or sink. Across three future scenarios based on existing restoration targets, wetland creation and conversion to rice fields reduced GHG emissions by 0.39 to 0.67 Mt CO2e yr-1, with per-area benefits of 16 to 28 t CO2e per hectare (ha) yr-1. Differences among scenarios in extents of wetland types influenced their relative benefits for different management goals. Tidal restoration and conversion to rice fields enhanced habitat benefits and offered a source of agricultural income, but with reduced GHG mitigation compared with conversion to peat-building wetlands. This highlights the importance of clear objectives when developing land-use plans. A strategic land-management portfolio that includes rice fields and both impounded and tidal wetlands could be designed to provide GHG and subsidence mitigation while offering a diverse suite of benefits for ecosystems and people.

California↗

USGS2008

Changes in the character of DOC in streams during storms in two Midwestern watersheds with contrasting land uses

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in streams is important, yet few studies focus on DOC dynamics in Midwestern streams during storms. In this study, stream DOC dynamics during storms in two Midwestern watersheds with contrasting land uses, the change in character of stream DOC during storms, and the usability of DOC as a hydrologic tracer in artificially drained landscapes of the Midwest are investigated. Major cation/DOC concentrations, and DOC specific UV absorbance (SUVA) and fluorescence index (FI) were monitored at 2-4 h intervals during three spring storms. Although DOC is less aromatic in the mixed land use watershed than in the agricultural watershed, land use has little impact on stream DOC concentration during storms. For both watersheds, DOC concentration follows discharge, and SUVA and FI values indicate an increase in stream DOC aromaticity and lignin content during storms. The comparison of DOC/major cation flushing dynamics indicates that DOC is mainly exported via overland flow/macropore flow. In both watersheds, the increase in DOC concentration in the streams during storms corresponds to a shift in the source of DOC from DOC originating from mineral soil layers of the soil profile at baseflow, to DOC originating from surficial soil layers richer in aromatic substances and lignin during storms. Results also suggest that DOC, SUVA and FI could be used as hydrologic tracers in artificially drained landscapes of the Midwest. These results underscore the importance of sampling streams for DOC during high flow periods in order to understand the fate of DOC in streams. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2011

Fate and transport of glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid in surface waters of agricultural basins

BACKGROUND: Glyphosate [N-(phosphonomethyl)glycine] is a herbicide used widely throughout the world in the production of many crops and is heavily used on soybeans, corn and cotton. Glyphosate is used in almost all agricultural areas of the United States, and the agricultural use of glyphosate has increased from less than 10 000 Mg in 1992 to more than 80 000 Mg in 2007. The greatest intensity of glyphosate use is in the midwestern United States, where applications are predominantly to genetically modified corn and soybeans. In spite of the increase in usage across the United States, the characterization of the transport of glyphosate and its degradate aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) on a watershed scale is lacking. RESULTS: Glyphosate and AMPA were frequently detected in the surface waters of four agricultural basins. The frequency and magnitude of detections varied across basins, and the load, as a percentage of use, ranged from 0.009 to 0.86% and could be related to three general characteristics: source strength, rainfall runoff and flow route. CONCLUSIONS: Glyphosate use in a watershed results in some occurrence in surface water; however, the watersheds most at risk for the offsite transport of glyphosate are those with high application rates, rainfall that results in overland runoff and a flow route that does not include transport through the soil.

Pest Management Science↗

USGS2008

Interaction between urbanization and climate variability amplifies watershed nitrate export in Maryland

We investigated regional effects of urbanization and land use change on nitrate concentrations in approximately 1,000 small streams in Maryland during record drought and wet years in 2001-2003. We also investigated changes in nitrate-N export during the same time period in 8 intensively monitored small watersheds across an urbanization gradient in Baltimore, Maryland. Nitrate-N concentrations in Maryland were greatest in agricultural streams, urban streams, and forest streams respectively. During the period of record drought and wet years, nitrate-N exports in Baltimore showed substantial variation in 6 suburban/urban streams (2.9-15.3 kg/ha/y), 1 agricultural stream (3.4-38.9 kg/ha/y), and 1 forest stream (0.03-0.2 kg/ ha/y). Interannual variability was similar for small Baltimore streams and nearby well-monitored tributaries and coincided with record hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. Discharge-weighted mean annual nitrate concentrations showed a variable tendency to decrease/increase with changes in annual runoff, although total N export generally increased with annual runoff. N retention in small Baltimore watersheds during the 2002 drought was 85%, 99%, and 94% for suburban, forest, and agricultural watersheds, respectively, and declined to 35%, 91%, and 41% during the wet year of 2003. Our results suggest that urban land use change can increase the vulnerability of ecosystem nitrogen retention functions to climatic variability. Further work is necessary to characterize patterns of nitrate-N export and retention in small urbanizing watersheds under varying climatic conditions to improve future forecasting and watershed scale restoration efforts aimed at improving nitrate-N retention. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS1996

Pesticides in streams draining agricultural and urban areas in Colorado

A study was conducted from April 1993 through April 1994 to describe and compare the occurrence and distribution of pesticides in streams in a small agricultural and a small urban area in Colorado. Twenty-five water samples collected at least monthly at the mouths of two tributary streams of the South Plate River were analyzed for 47 pesticides. The results indicate that both agricultural and urban areas are probable sources for pesticides in streams. In the agricultural area, 30 pesticides were detected, and in the urban area, 22 pesticides were detected in one or more samples. Most often, the more frequently detected pesticides in both areas also were some of the more commonly used pesticides. In both areas, pesticide concentrations were higher during the summer (application period) with maximum concentrations generally occurring in storm runoff. The year-round detection of some pesticides in both areas at consistently low concentrations, regardless of season or streamflow volume, could indicate that these compounds persist in the shallow alluvial aquifer year-round.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2016

Primary production in the Delta: Then and now

To evaluate the role of restoration in the recovery of the Delta ecosystem, we need to have clear targets and performance measures that directly assess ecosystem function. Primary production is a crucial ecosystem process, which directly limits the quality and quantity of food available for secondary consumers such as invertebrates and fish. The Delta has a low rate of primary production, but it is unclear whether this was always the case. Recent analyses from the Historical Ecology Team and Delta Landscapes Project provide quantitative comparisons of the areal extent of 14 habitat types in the modern Delta versus the historical Delta (pre-1850). Here we describe an approach for using these metrics of land use change to: (1) produce the first quantitative estimates of how Delta primary production and the relative contributions from five different producer groups have been altered by large-scale drainage and conversion to agriculture; (2) convert these production estimates into a common currency so the contributions of each producer group reflect their food quality and efficiency of transfer to consumers; and (3) use simple models to discover how tidal exchange between marshes and open water influences primary production and its consumption. Application of this approach could inform Delta management in two ways. First, it would provide a quantitative estimate of how large-scale conversion to agriculture has altered the Delta's capacity to produce food for native biota. Second, it would provide restoration practitioners with a new approach—based on ecosystem function—to evaluate the success of restoration projects and gauge the trajectory of ecological recovery in the Delta region.

California↗

USGS1999

Cumulative index to chemicals and to common and scientific names of species listed in Contaminant Hazard Reviews 1 through 34

The Contaminant Hazard Review (CHR) series--sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center--synthesizes ecotoxicological data for selected environmental contaminants, with emphasis on hazards to native species of flora and fauna. From 1985 through 1998, 34 reviews were published in various report series of the U.S. Department of the Interior on agricultural pesticides (acrolein, atrazine, carbofuran, chlordane, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, diflubenzuron, famphur, fenvalerate, mirex, paraquat, toxaphene), metals and metalloids (arsenic, boron, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, silver, tin, zinc), mammalian biocides (sodium monofluoroacetate), organic industrial and municipal wastes (dioxins, pentachlorophenol, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls), minin wastes (cyanide), and ionizing radiations. This current report is a cumulative index to the common and scientific names of all biological species listed in the first 34 reports in the CHR series, with individual species cross-referenced with contaminant hazard review and corresponding page numbers. A similar index for chemicals is included.

Biological Science Report↗

USGS1987

Selected papers in the hydrologic sciences, 1986

Water-quality data from long-term (24 years), fixed- station monitoring at the Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly, N.C., and various measures of basin development are correlated. Subbasin population, number of acres of cropland in the subbasin, number of people employed in manufacturing, and tons of fertilizer applied in the basin are considered as measures of basinwide development activity. Linear correlations show statistically significant posi- tive relations between both population and manufacturing activity and most of the dissolved constituents considered. Negative correlations were found between the acres of harvested cropland and most of the water-quality measures. The amount of fertilizer sold in the subbasin was not statistically related to the water-quality measures considered in this report. The statistical analysis was limited to several commonly used measures of water quality including specific conductance, pH, dissolved solids, several major dissolved ions, and a few nutrients. The major dissolved ions included in the analysis were calcium, sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, sulfate, silica, bicarbonate, and fluoride. The nutrients included were dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total nitrogen, dissolved phosphates, and total phosphorus. For the chemicals evaluated, manufacturing and population sources are more closely associated with water quality in the Cape Fear River at Lock 1 than are agricultural variables.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2009

Relations between sinkhole density and anthropogenic contaminants in selected carbonate aquifers in the eastern United States

The relation between sinkhole density and water quality was investigated in seven selected carbonate aquifers in the eastern United States. Sinkhole density for these aquifers was grouped into high (>25 sinkholes/100 km 2 ), medium (1–25 sinkholes/100 km 2 ), or low (<1 sinkhole/100 km 2 ) categories using a geographical information system that included four independent databases covering parts of Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. Field measurements and concentrations of major ions, nitrate, and selected pesticides in samples from 451 wells and 70 springs were included in the water-quality database. Data were collected as a part of the US Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Areas with high and medium sinkhole density had the greatest well depths and depths to water, the lowest concentrations of total dissolved solids and bicarbonate, the highest concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and the lowest partial pressure of CO 2 compared to areas with low sinkhole density. These chemical indicators are consistent conceptually with a conduit-flow-dominated system in areas with a high density of sinkholes and a diffuse-flow-dominated system in areas with a low density of sinkholes. Higher cave density and spring discharge in Pennsylvania also support the concept that the high sinkhole density areas are dominated by conduit-flow systems. Concentrations of nitrate-N were significantly higher ( p < 0.05) in areas with high and medium sinkhole density than in low sinkhole-density areas; when accounting for the variations in land use near the sampling sites, the high sinkhole-density area still had higher concentrations of nitrate-N than the low sinkhole-density area. Detection frequencies of atrazine, simazine, metolachlor, prometon, and the atrazine degradate deethylatrazine indicated a pattern similar to nitrate; highest pesticide detections were associated with high sinkhole-density areas. These patterns generally persisted when analyzing the detection frequency by land-use groups, particularly for agricultural land-use areas where pesticide use would be expected to be higher and more uniform areally compared to urban and forested areas. Although areas with agricultural land use and a high sinkhole density were most vulnerable (median nitrate-N concentration was 3.7 mg/L, 11% of samples exceeded 10 mg/L, and had the highest frequencies of pesticide detection), areas with agricultural land use and low sinkhole density still were vulnerable to contamination (median nitrate-N concentration was 1.5 mg/L, 8% of samples exceeded 10 mg/L, and had some of the highest frequencies of detections of pesticides). This may be due in part to incomplete or missing data regarding karst features (such as buried sinkholes, low-permeability material in bottom of sinkholes) that do not show up at the scales used for regional mapping and to inconsistent methods among states in karst feature delineation.

Missouri↗

USGS2020

Factors that influence participation of Puerto Rican coffee farmers in conservation programs

Sustainable, conservation-oriented agricultural practices like shade coffee and agroforestry can enhance conservation objectives in tropical landscapes. Adoption of these practices, however, is influenced by numerous factors. We conducted a survey of 89 coffee farmers in Puerto Rico to understand their farming practices, experience with existing incentives, and willingness to participate in conservation programs. Quantitative analysis showed that current farming practices, farm size, and annual income from farming were associated with willingness to participate in conservation programs. Qualitative results suggested that financial considerations, conflicting state and federal incentives, lack of information about conservation programs, distrust in government, and land use restrictions might hinder participation. Some farmers perceived that sun farming—a practice incompatible with sustainable conservation—was required to be eligible for state agricultural incentives. The way some farmers practiced shade farming differed from the way suggested for conservation purposes, particularly in the type of shade trees and their cover density. Farmers highlighted the need for financial incentives to encourage adoption of shade farming. They also expressed concerns that participation in conservation programs could limit their land management autonomy. We suggest that availability of financial incentives, reconciliation of institutional barriers, increased outreach, and involvement of farmers in design of conservation programs can increase adoption and retention of conservation practices.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2001

Partners in flight bird conservation plan for the Upper Great Lakes Plain (Physiographic Area 16)

1 November 2001. Conservation of bird habitats is a major focus of effort by Partners in Flight, an international coalition of agencies, citizens, and other groups dedicated to 'keeping common birds common'. USGS worked on a planning team to publish a bird conservation plan for the Upper Great Lakes Plain ecoregion (PIF 16), which includes large portions of southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The conservation plan outlines specific habitat restoration and bird population objectives for the ecoregion over the next decade. The plan provides a context for on-the-ground conservation implementation by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, the US Forest Service, states, and conservation groups. Citation: Knutson, M. G., G. Butcher, J. Fitzgerald, and J. Shieldcastle. 2001. Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan for The Upper Great Lakes Plain (Physiographic Area 16). USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center in cooperation with Partners in Flight, La Crosse, Wisconsin. Download from website: http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pifplans.htm. The Upper Great Lakes Plain covers the southern half of Michigan, northwest Ohio, northern Indiana, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and small portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Glacial moraines and dissected plateaus are characteristic of the topography. Broadleaf forests, oak savannahs, and a variety of prairie communities are the natural vegetation types. A oDriftless Areao was not glaciated during the late Pleistocene and emerged as a unique area of great biological diversity. Priority bird species for the area include the Henslow's Sparrow, Sedge Wren, Bobolink, Golden-winged Warbler, Cerulean Warbler, Black-billed Cuckoo, and Red-headed Woodpecker. There are many large urban centers in this area whose growth and sprawl will continue to consume land. The vast majority of the presettlement forest and oak savannah grasslands already have been converted to agriculture. The conversion to cropland may have benefitted some grassland birds, and forest birds still persist. Rates of cowbird parasitism and nest predation in this heavily fragmented region, however, are extremely high and it is possible that only those bird communities in the few remaining expanses of contiguous habitat are self-sustaining. Forest habitat needs to be retained or restored so that a significant number of patches of sufficient size and quality each support a healthy population of Cerulean Warblers. It is assumed that each of these patches will then support the full range of forest birds. The total area of savannah habitat also should be increased, although the need for large blocks is not as apparent. Those few areas of grassland that still exist should be retained.

Report↗

USGS2017

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

Scientific Data↗

USGS2009

Recharge rates and chemistry beneath playas of the High Plains aquifer: A literature review and synthesis

Playas are ephemeral, closed-basin wetlands that are important zones of recharge to the High Plains (or Ogallala) aquifer and critical habitat for birds and other wildlife in the otherwise semiarid, shortgrass prairie and agricultural landscape. The ephemeral nature of playas, low regional recharge rates, and a strong reliance on ground water from the High Plains aquifer has prompted many questions regarding the contribution of recharge from playas to the regional aquifer. To address these questions and concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Playa Lakes Joint Venture, present a review and synthesis of the more than 175 publications about recharge rates and chemistry beneath playas and interplaya settings. Although a number of questions remain regarding the controls on recharge rates and chemistry beneath playas, the results from most published studies indicate that recharge rates beneath playas are substantially (1 to 2 orders of magnitude) higher than recharge rates beneath interplaya settings. The synthesis presented here supports the conceptual model that playas are important zones of recharge to the High Plains aquifer and are not strictly evaporative pans. The major findings of this synthesis yield science-based implications for the protection and management of playas and ground-water resources of the High Plains aquifer and directions for future research.

High Plains aquifer↗

USGS2011

Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 μg/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 μg/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 μg/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

California↗

USGS2015

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

AIMS Environmental Science↗

USGS2013

Projected surface radiative forcing due to 2000--2050 land-cover land-use albedo change over the eastern United States

Satellite-derived contemporary land-cover land-use (LCLU) and albedo data and modeled future LCLU are used to study the impact of LCLU change from 2000 to 2050 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 19 ecoregions in the eastern United States. The modeled 2000–2050 LCLU changes indicate a future decrease in both agriculture and forested land and an increase in developed land that induces ecoregion radiative forcings ranging from −0.175 to 0.432 W m −2 driven predominately by differences in the area and type of LCLU change. At the regional scale, these projected LCLU changes induce a net negative albedo decrease (−0.001) and a regional positive radiative forcing of 0.112 W m −2 . This overall positive forcing (i.e., warming) is almost 4 times greater than that estimated for documented 1973–2000 LCLU albedo change published in a previous study using the same methods.

Journal of Land Change Science↗

USGS2010

Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities

Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources

Circular↗

USGS2023

The changing dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: Next steps for management & science in North America

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 was introduced in North America in late 2021 through trans-Atlantic pathways via migratory birds. These introductions have resulted in an unprecedented epizootic, a widespread disease event in animals, heavily affecting poultry, wild birds, and recently mammals. The North American incursions occurred during the largest epidemic season (2021–2022) in Europe where H5N1 may now be endemic (i.e., continuously present). The continuing outbreak includes expansion into Mexico, Central and South America beginning in late 2022. Here, we provide an overview of the Eurasian origin H5N1 introduction to the Americas, including a significant shift in virus dynamics and severe disease in wild birds. Then, to investigate the global changes in confirmed detections in wild birds and poultry across time and geographic regions, we analyzed FAO's EMPRES-i + database. To examine the 2021 introduction and spread in North American wild birds and poultry, we collated publicly available data across USA and Canadian federal sources. Based on our assessment, the unique magnitude of the North American H5N1 spread indicates the need for effective decision framing to prioritize management needs and scientific inquiry, particularly for species at risk and interface areas for wildlife, poultry, and humans. We illustrate the rapidly occurring and likely increasing detrimental effects that this One Health issue has on wildlife, agriculture, and potentially human health, and we offer a reframing of HPAIV disease response towards a decision analytical context to guide scientific prioritization as a potentially valuable change in focus.

Biological Conservation↗