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Geophysical Methods for Investigating Ground-Water Recharge

While numerical modeling has revolutionized our understanding of basin-scale hydrologic processes, such models rely almost exclusively on traditional measurements?rainfall, streamflow, and water-table elevations?for calibration and testing. Model calibration provides initial estimates of ground-water recharge. Calibrated models are important yet crude tools for addressing questions about the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge. An inverse approach to recharge estimation is taken of necessity, due to inherent difficulties in making direct measurements of flow across the water table. Difficulties arise because recharging fluxes are typically small, even in humid regions, and because the location of the water table changes with time. Deep water tables in arid and semiarid regions make recharge monitoring especially difficult. Nevertheless, recharge monitoring must advance in order to improve assessments of ground-water recharge. Improved characterization of basin-scale recharge is critical for informed water-resources management. Difficulties in directly measuring recharge have prompted many efforts to develop indirect methods. The mass-balance approach of estimating recharge as the residual of generally much larger terms has persisted despite the use of increasing complex and finely gridded large-scale hydrologic models. Geophysical data pertaining to recharge rates, timing, and patterns have the potential to substantially improve modeling efforts by providing information on boundary conditions, by constraining model inputs, by testing simplifying assumptions, and by identifying the spatial and temporal resolutions needed to predict recharge to a specified tolerance in space and in time. Moreover, under certain conditions, geophysical measurements can yield direct estimates of recharge rates or changes in water storage, largely eliminating the need for indirect measures of recharge. This appendix presents an overview of physically based, geophysical methods that are currently available or under development for recharge monitoring. The material is written primarily for hydrogeologists. Uses of geophysical methods for improving recharge monitoring are explored through brief discussions and case studies. The intent is to indicate how geophysical methods can be used effectively in studying recharge processes and quantifying recharge. As such, the material constructs a framework for matching the strengths of individual geophysical methods with the manners in which they can be applied for hydrologic analyses. The appendix is organized in three sections. First, the key hydrologic parameters necessary to determine the rate, timing, and patterns of recharge are identified. Second, the basic operating principals of the relevant geophysical methods are discussed. Methods are grouped by the physical property that they measure directly. Each measured property is related to one or more of the key hydrologic properties for recharge monitoring. Third, the emerging conceptual framework for applying geophysics to recharge monitoring is presented. Examples of the application of selected geophysical methods to recharge monitoring are presented in nine case studies. These studies illustrate hydrogeophysical applications under a wide range of conditions and measurement scales, which vary from tenths of a meter to hundreds of meters. The case studies include practice-proven as well as emerging applications of geophysical methods to recharge monitoring.

Professional Paper

How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?

Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions using a hybrid statistical-deterministic baseflow model. Total baseflow supplied to the Lower Colorado River Basin may decline by up to 33%, although this value may increase in the near future by 6% under warm/wet conditions. The percentage of baseflow lost during in-stream transport is projected to increase by 1 - 5% relative to historical conditions. Results highlight that climate driven changes in high elevation hydrology have impacts on basin-wide water availability. Study results have implications for human and ecological water availability in one of the most heavily managed watersheds in the world.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The east-central Florida transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average evapotranspiration (ET) over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.5 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.6 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.6 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.2 inches per year from the model-independent waterbudget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 800 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Florida

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The East-Central Florida Transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into ET, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average ET over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.47 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.58 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 920 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Florida

Hydroclimatic and land-use factors affecting peak streamflow in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis provides the basis for flood risk estimates used by water-resource managers in land-use planning, and it informs the design of essential infrastructure such as bridges and culverts. Federal guidelines for flood-frequency analysis do not offer guidance on addressing changing climate and land-use conditions when estimating floods. However, failing to consider climatic and land-use changes that cause abrupt or gradual changes in flood regimes can result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. In response to concerns about changing flood regimes, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with nine State agencies (Illinois Department of Transportation, Iowa Department of Transportation, Michigan Department of Transportation, Minnesota Department of Transportation, Missouri Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and Wisconsin Department of Transportation) began a study to examine variability and change in hydrology and climate and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage on flooding. The analyses of patterns and changes in hydrology and climate were reported in a multichapter Scientific Investigations Report, the findings of which are summarized in this U.S. Geological Survey Circular. Additional analyses documenting changes in seasonality of flooding and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage were completed and published as separate studies and are also summarized in this Circular. These studies provide extensive exploratory analysis of peak streamflow, daily streamflow, and climate data, setting the stage for advancements in flood-frequency analysis.

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mon

Adapting a regional water-quality model for local application: A case study for Tennessee, USA

We evaluated whether SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models calibrated for two adjacent USA regions could be applied at the local scale to support management decisions for streams in Tennessee. Nutrient-source apportionment of load is important for this local-scale application and demands careful consideration of uncertainty in the calibrated coefficients. We used Gauss-Newton regression to test the published SPARROW models for constancy of coefficient estimates between calibration sites on streams within (n = 59) versus outside (n = 327) Tennessee and concluded source apportionment was unbiased for Tennessee streams. The SPARROW models were then applied without re-calibration to predict stream loads and source apportionment for Tennessee streams and to build tools for displaying model results and evaluating source-change scenarios. This approach may inform the adaptation of other regional-scale regression models for use to address water-resource management issues in smaller-scale watersheds.

Tennessee

Estimating salinity intrusion effects due to climate change along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina coast

The ability of water-resource managers to adapt to future climatic change is especially challenging in coastal regions of the world. The East Coast of the United States falls into this category given the high number of people living along the Atlantic seaboard and the added strain on resources as populations continue to increase, particularly in the Southeast. Increased temperatures, changes in regional precipitation regimes, and potential increased sea level would have a great impact on existing hydrological systems in the region. Six reservoirs in North Carolina discharge into the Pee Dee River, which flows 160 miles through South Carolina to the coastal communities near Myrtle Beach, SC. During the Southeast’s record-breaking drought from 1998 to 2002, salinity intrusions inundated a coastal municipal freshwater intake, limiting water supplies. Salinity intrusion results from the interaction of three principal forces - streamflow, mean tidal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze, model, and simulate hydrodynamic behaviors at critical coastal streamgages along the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) near Myrtle Beach, SC, data-mining techniques were applied to over 20 years of hourly streamflow, coastal water-quality, and water-level data. Artificial neural network (ANN) models were trained to learn the variable interactions that cause salinity intrusions. Streamflow from the 12,700 square-mile Pee Dee River Basin that flows into the AIW are input to the model as time-delayed variables and accumulated tributary inflows. Tidal inputs to the models were obtained by decomposing tidal water-level data into a “periodic” signal of tidal range and a “chaotic” signal of mean water levels. The ANN models were able to convincingly reproduce historical behaviors and generate alternative scenarios of interest. To evaluate the impact of climate change on salinity intrusion, inputs of streamflows and mean tidal water levels were modified to incorporate estimated changes in precipitation patterns and sea-level rise appropriate for the Southeastern United States. Changes in mean tidal water levels were changed parametrically for various sea-level rise conditions. Preliminary model results at the U.S. Geological Survey Pawleys Island streamgage (station 02110125) near a municipal freshwater intake indicate that a sea-level rise of 1 foot (ft, 30.5 centimeters [cm]) would double the frequency of water with a specific conductance value of 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter close to 4 percent. A 2 ft (61 cm) sea-level rise would quadruple the frequency to 9 percent.

South Carolina

Groundwater conditions and studies in the Brunswick–Glynn County area, Georgia, 2008

The Upper Floridan aquifer is contaminated with saltwater in a 2-square-mile area of downtown Brunswick, Georgia. This contamination has limited development of the groundwater supply in the Glynn County area. Hydrologic, geologic, and water-quality data are needed to effectively manage water resources. Since 1959, the U.S. Geological Survey has conducted a cooperative water program with the City of Brunswick to monitor and assess the effect of groundwater development on saltwater contamination of the Floridan aquifer system. During calendar year 2008, the cooperative water program included continuous water-level recording of 12 wells completed in the Floridan, Brunswick, and surficial aquifer systems; collecting water levels from 21 wells to map the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer during July 2008; and collecting and analyzing water samples from 26 wells to map chloride concentrations in the Upper Floridan aquifer during July 2008. Equipment was installed on 3 wells for real-time water level and specific conductance monitoring. In addition, work was continued to refine an existing groundwater-flow model for evaluation of water-management scenarios.

Georgia

Examining terrestrial and subterranean sediment sources and transport processes in an urban sewershed with an entirely buried stream network, Washington, D.C., United States

Excessive fine-grained sediment runoff due to anthropogenic activities is a major environmental concern for watersheds worldwide, especially so for urban areas such as Washington, D.C. Dated grey infrastructure, i.e., the network of buried pipes and reservoirs managing water resources, can amplify existing issues with sediment runoff and associated pollutants. This infrastructure, which is generally designed to quickly transport stormwaters away from urban areas, contributes to urban stream syndrome. Recent studies have suggested aging subterranean infrastructure may be an unaccounted-for source of sediments. The composition of this possible sediment source, and the extent to which it contributes to urban sediment runoff, is poorly understood. Our study seeks to examine sediment sources and transport processes in an urban watershed with an entirely buried drainage network using sediment fingerprinting, with specific attention paid to differentiating between terrestrial and subterranean sources. We demonstrate here multiple novel approaches to sampling subterranean sources including augering and entering the buried drainage network itself. The results of this study may inform sediment managers and infrastructure engineers and allow for targeted sediment reduction responses.

District of Columbia

Hydrogeology of Puerto Rico and the outlying islands of Vieques, Culebra, and Mona

The availability of hydrogeologic maps for Puerto Rico and the outlying islands of Vieques, Culebra, and Mona are important to hydrogeologists, groundwater specialists, and water resource managers and planners. These maps, in combination with the report, serve as a source of information to all users by providing basic hydrogeologic and hydrologic knowledge in a concise illustrated format. Puerto Rico and the outlying islands cover a total area of 8,927 square kilometers (km 2 ). Of this total area, about 3,500 km 2 are underlain by hydrogeologic units that are classified as intergranular or fissured. These hydrogeologic units form the principal aquifer systems throughout Puerto Rico and the outlying islands. In Puerto Rico, the most extensive and intensely developed aquifers are the North Coast Limestone aquifer system and the South Coastal Alluvial Plain aquifer system. Withdrawals from these two aquifer systems constitute nearly 70 percent of the total groundwater withdrawn in Puerto Rico. The spatial extent of the North Coast Limestone aquifer system is about 2,000 km 2 . Within this aquifer system, groundwater development is greatest in the 800-km 2 area between the Río Grande de Arecibo and the Río de la Plata. This also is the area for which concern is the highest regarding the future use of groundwater as a primary source of water for domestic and industrial use. With an estimated withdrawal of 280,000 cubic meters per day (m 3 /d), groundwater constituted the principal source of water within this area providing 100 percent of the water for self-supplied industries and about 85 percent for public water supplies in 1985. By 2005, groundwater withdrawals decreased to 150,000 m 3 /d. The spatial extent of the South Coastal Alluvial Plain aquifer system is about 470 km 2 . The estimated consumptive groundwater withdrawal from the aquifer system was 190,000 m 3 /d in 1980 and 170,000 m 3 /d in 2005. About 60 percent and 40 percent of the groundwater withdrawal from the South Coastal Alluvial Plain aquifer system was used for public water supply and irrigation, respectively. In the outlying islands of Vieques, Culebra, and Mona, only Vieques is underlain by aquifers of any local importance. The Resolución and Esperanza aquifers underlie an area covering 16 km 2 on the island of Vieques. Prior to 1978 when an underwater public water-supply pipeline connecting Vieques to the main island of Puerto Rico was completed, groundwater withdrawal from the two aquifers was as much as 2,500 m 3 /d. Groundwater withdrawals in Vieques island in 2005 were estimated at less than 100 m 3 /d. The potential development of relatively untapped groundwater resources in Puerto Rico is limited to the Río Grande de Añasco valley and the Río Culebrinas valley in the western part of the island and to the Río Grande de Arecibo part of the North Coast Limestone aquifer system. In general, the North Coast Limestone and the South Coastal Alluvial Plain aquifer systems, which are the two principal groundwater-flow systems in Puerto Rico, show evidence of aquifer overdraft as indicated by regional increases in concentrations of dissolved solids. Optimization of withdrawals through conjunctive use of both surface-water and groundwater sources and by instituting water conservation measures has the greatest potential to ensure the continued use of groundwater resources. In support of these efforts, programs also could be implemented to improve database information regarding groundwater withdrawals and the contribution of surface-water diversions to surface-water flow, especially within the southern coastal plain of Puerto Rico.

Culebra;Mona;Vieques

Analysis of the effects of proposed pumping from the principal artesian aquifer, Savannah, Georgia area

A two-dimensional finite-difference model of the principal artesian aquifer in the Savannah, Georgia, area, originally developed by Counts and Krause (1976), has been expanded and refined. The model was updated and the grid redesigned to provide more current and accurate detail for ground-water resources management alternatives. Improvements in the definition of the flow system were made possible by the acquisition of additional data in the area and by recently completed regional models that include the area. The model was initially calibrated by using the estimated predevelopment potentiometric surface of 1880. The flow system under predevelopment conditions was sluggish and only 100 cubic feet per second (65 million gallons per day) flowed through the model area. It was then tested for acceptance by using the May 1980 potentiometric surface and corresponding pumping stress of approximately 85 million gallons per day in the Savannah, Georgia-Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, area. The flow through the system under 1980 conditions was about 390 cubic feet per second (250 million gallons per day) and the vertical inflow from the overlying surficial aquifer more than doubled due to formerly rejected recharge that now flows vertically into the aquifer. Calibration was accurate + or - 10 feet. The absolute error per node was 3.4 feet. A hypothetical 25-percent increase in pumpage over the entire area was used to represent a gradual growth in commercial and municipal pumpage over the next 20 to 30 years. The increase produced a maximum decline of 30 feet below the existing water level of 135 feet below sea level at the center of the cone of depression in Savannah, and a 5-foot decline at a radius of 20 miles from the center of the cone of depression. (USGS)

Georgia

Hydrologic and water-quality characterization and modeling of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York

Onondaga Lake in Onondaga County, New York, has been identified as one of the Nation’s most contaminated lakes as a result of industrial and sanitary-sewer discharges and stormwater nonpoint sources, and has received priority cleanup status under the national Water Resources Development Act of 1990. A basin-scale precipitation-runoff model of the Onondaga Lake basin was identified as a desirable water-resources management tool to better understand the processes responsible for the generation of loads of sediment and nutrients that are transported to Onondaga Lake. During 2003–07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a model based on the computer program, Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF), which simulated overland flow to, and streamflow in, the major tributaries of Onondaga Lake, and loads of sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen transported to the lake. The simulation period extends from October 1997 through September 2003. The Onondaga Lake basin was divided into 107 subbasins and within these subbasins, the land area was apportioned among 19 pervious and impervious land types on the basis of land use and land cover, hydrologic soil group (HSG), and aspect. Precipitation data were available from three sources as input to the model. The model simulated streamflow, water temperature, concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and concentrations and loads of sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, nitrate, ammonia, and organic nitrogen in the four major tributaries to Onondaga Lake–Onondaga Creek, Harbor Brook, Ley Creek, and Ninemile Creek. Simulated flows were calibrated to data from nine USGS streamflow-monitoring sites; simulated nutrient concentrations and loads were calibrated to data collected at six of the nine streamflow-monitoring sites. Water-quality samples were collected, processed, and analyzed by personnel from the Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection. Several time series of flow, and sediment and nutrient loads were generated for known sources of these constituents, including the Tully Valley mudboils (flow and sediment), Otisco Lake (flow and nutrients), the Marcellus wastewater-treatment plant (flow and nutrients), and springs from carbonate bedrock (flow). Runoff from the impervious sewered areas of the City of Syracuse was adjusted for the quantity that was treatable at the county wastewater-treatment plant; the excess flows were routed to nearby streams through combined-sanitary-and-storm-sewer overflows. The mitigative effects that the Onondaga Reservoir and Otisco Lake were presumed to have on loads of sediment and particulate constituents were simulated by adjustment of parameter values that controlled sediment settling rates, deposition, and scour in the reservoir and lake. Graphical representations of observed and simulated data, and relevant statistics, were compared to assess model performance. Simulated daily and monthly streamflows were rated “very good” (within 10 percent of observed flows) at all calibration sites, except Onondaga Creek at Cardiff, which was rated “fair” (10–15 percent difference). Simulations of monthly average water temperatures were rated “very good” (within 7 percent of observed temperatures) at all sites. No observed data were available by which to directly assess the model’s simulation of suspended sediment loads. Available measured total suspended solids data provided an indirect means of comparison but, not surprisingly, yielded only “fair” to “poor” ratings (greater than 30 percent difference) for simulated monthly sediment loads at half the water-quality calibration sites. Simulations of monthly orthophosphate loads ranged from “very good” (within 15 percent of measured loads) at three sites to “poor” (greater than 35 percent difference) at one site; simulations of ammonia nitrogen loads ranged from “very good” at one site to “fair” (25–35 percent difference) at two sites. Simulations of monthly total phosphorus, nitrate, and organic nitrogen loads were generally rated “very good” at all calibration sites. Sources of uncertainty in model results were identified, including (1) errors in precipitation data, (2) limitations in model structure, (3) nonuniqueness of values for highly sensitive parameters, (4) errors or bias in data used to calibrate the different components of the model, (5) misclassification of land-use and land-cover data, (6) changes in land use during the simulation period, (7) unidentified sources or sinks of chemical loads and water-quality processes that varied over time, and (8) differences in scale between large calibrated subbasins and small subbasins to which calibrated parameter values were transferred. Uncertainty in simulations of water-quality constituents was compounded by uncertainty in the processes on which the water-quality simulations were based. Therefore, sediment simulations were affected by uncertainty in the simulation of hydrology, and nutrient simulations were affected by uncertainty in both the hydrologic and sediment processes, as well as, in simulations of water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations. The calibrated model can be used to simulate scenarios that represent planned or hypothetical development and implementation of best-management practices in the Onondaga Lake basin and to assess the effects that these changes and practices are likely to have on rural and urban nonpoint sources of pollution to Onondaga Lake. Model results also can be used as input to a hydrodynamic model of Onondaga Lake that is being developed by Onondaga County and to prioritize areas of the basin where mitigative measures to decrease sediment and nutrient loads could provide the greatest benefits to Onondaga Lake.

New York

Simulation of groundwater storage changes in the Quincy Basin, Washington

The Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group and younger sedimentary deposits of lacustrine, fluvial, eolian, and cataclysmic-flood origins compose the aquifer system of the Quincy Basin in eastern Washington. Irrigation return flow and canal leakage from the Columbia Basin Project have caused groundwater levels to rise substantially in some areas. Water resource managers are considering extraction of additional stored groundwater to supply increasing demand. To help address these concerns, the transient groundwater model of the Quincy Basin documented in this report was developed to quantify the changes in groundwater flow and storage. The model based on the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference numerical code MODFLOW uses a 1-kilometer finite-difference grid and is constrained by logs from 698 wells in the study area. Five model layers represent two sedimentary hydrogeologic units and underlying basalt formations. Head-dependent flux boundaries represent the Columbia River and other streams, lakes and reservoirs, underflow to and (or) from adjacent areas, and discharge to agricultural drains and springs. Specified flux boundaries represent recharge from precipitation and anthropogenic sources, including irrigation return flow and leakage from water-distribution canals and discharge through groundwater withdrawal wells. Transient conditions were simulated from 1920 to 2013 using annual stress periods. The model was calibrated with the parameter-estimation code PEST to a total of 4,064 water levels measured in 710 wells. Increased recharge since predevelopment resulted in an 11.5 million acre-feet increase in storage in the Quincy Groundwater Management Subarea of the Quincy Basin. Four groundwater-management scenarios were formulated with input from project stakeholders and were simulated using the calibrated model to provide representative examples of how the model could be used to evaluate the effect on groundwater levels as a result of potential changes in recharge, groundwater withdrawals, or increased flow in Crab Creek. Decreased recharge and increased groundwater withdrawals both resulted in declines in groundwater levels over 2013 conditions, whereas increasing the flow in Crab Creek resulted in increased groundwater levels over 2013 conditions.

Washington

Results of a shallow seismic-refraction survey in the Little Valley area near Hemet, Riverside County, California

Little Valley, a small locally named valley southeast of the city of Hemet in Riverside County, California, is being evaluated for development of a constructed wetland and infiltration area as part of a water-resources management program in the area. The valley is a granitic basin filled with unconsolidated material. In August 1993 and June and July 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a seismic-refraction survey consisting of four lines northwest of the valley, eight lines in the valley, and six lines northeast of the valley. Two interpretations were made for the lines: a two-layer model yielded an estimate of the minimum depths to bedrock and a three-layer model yielded the most likely depths to bedrock. Results of the interpretation of the three-layer model indicate that the unsaturated unconsolidated surface layer ranges in thickness from 12 to 83 feet in the valley and 24 to 131 feet northeast of the valley. The mean compressional velocity for this layer was about 1,660 feet per second. A saturated middle layer was detected in some parts of the study area, but not in others--probably because of insufficient thickness in some places; however, in order to determine the "most likely" depths to bedrock, it was assumed that the layer was present throughout the valley. Depths to this layer were verified on three seismic lines using the water level from the only well in the valley. Data for additional verification were not available for wells near Little Valley. The bedrock slope from most of Little Valley is down toward the northeast. Bedrock profiles show that the bedrock surface is very uneven in the study area. The interpreted most likely depth to bedrock in the valley ranged from land surface (exposed) to a depth of 176 feet below land surface, and northeast of the valley it ranged from 118 to 331 feet below land surface. Bedrock depths were verified using lithologic logs from test holes drilled previously in the area. On the basis of a measured mean compressional velocity of about 12,000 feet per second, the bedrock was interpreted to be weathered granite.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

elfgen: A new instream flow framework for rapid generation and optimization of flow-ecology relations

Effective water resource management requires practical, data‐driven determination of instream flow needs. Newly developed, high‐resolution flow models and aquatic species databases provide enormous opportunity, but the volume of data can prove challenging to manage without automated tools. The objective of this study was to develop a framework of analytical methods and best practices to reduce costs of entry into flow–ecology analysis by integrating widely available hydrologic and ecological datasets. Ecological limit functions (ELFs) describing the relation between maximum species richness and stream size characteristics (streamflow or drainage area) were developed. Species richness is expected to increase with streamflow through a watershed up to a point where it either plateaus or transitions to a decreasing trend in larger streams. Our results show that identifying the location of this "breakpoint" is critical for producing optimal ELF model fit. We found that richness breakpoints can be estimated using automated low‐supervision methods, with high‐supervision providing negligible improvement in detection accuracy. Model fit (and predictive capability) was found to be superior in smaller hydrologic units. The ELF model ("elfgen" R package available on GitHub: https://github.com/HARPgroup/elfgen ) can be used to generate ELFs using built‐in datasets for the conterminous United States, or applied anywhere else streamflow and biodiversity data inputs are available.

Virginia

Reference manual for generation and analysis of Habitat Time Series: version II

The selection of an instream flow requirement for water resource management often requires the review of how the physical habitat changes through time. This review is referred to as 'Time Series Analysis." The Tune Series Library (fSLIB) is a group of programs to enter, transform, analyze, and display time series data for use in stream habitat assessment. A time series may be defined as a sequence of data recorded or calculated over time. Examples might be historical monthly flow, predicted monthly weighted usable area, daily electrical power generation, annual irrigation diversion, and so forth. The time series can be analyzed, both descriptively and analytically, to understand the importance of the variation in the events over time. This is especially useful in the development of instream flow needs based on habitat availability. The TSLIB group of programs assumes that you have an adequate study plan to guide you in your analysis. You need to already have knowledge about such things as time period and time step, species and life stages to consider, and appropriate comparisons or statistics to be produced and displayed or tabulated. Knowing your destination, you must first evaluate whether TSLIB can get you there. Remember, data are not answers . This publication is a reference manual to TSLIB and is intended to be a guide to the process of using the various programs in TSLIB. This manual is essentially limited to the hands-on use of the various programs. a TSLIB use interface program (called RTSM) has been developed to provide an integrated working environment where the use has a brief on-line description of each TSLIB program with the capability to run the TSLIB program while in the user interface. For information on the RTSM program, refer to Appendix F. Before applying the computer models described herein, it is recommended that the user enroll in the short course "Problem Solving with the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM)." This course is offered by the Aquatic Systems Branch of the National Ecology Research Center. For more information about the TSLIB software, refer to the Memorandum of Understanding. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology and TSLIB. Other chapters in this manual provide information on the different aspects of using the models. The information contained in the other chapters includes (2) acquisition, entry, manipulation, and listing of streamflow data; (3) entry, manipulation, and listing of the habitat-versus-streamflow function; (4) transferring streamflow data; (5) water resources systems analysis; (6) generation and analysis of daily streamflow and habitat values; (7) generation of the time series of monthly habitats; (8) manipulation, analysis, and display of month time series data; and (9) generation, analysis, and display of annual time series data. Each section includes documentation for the programs therein with at least one page of information for each program, including a program description, instructions for running the program, and sample output. The Appendixes contain the following: (A) sample file formats; (B) descriptions of default filenames; (C) alphabetical summary of batch-procedure files; (D) installing and running TSLIB on a microcomputer; (E) running TSLIB on a CDC Cyber computer; (F) using the TSLIB user interface program (RTSM); and (G) running WATSTORE on the USGS Amdahl mainframe computer. The number for this version of TSLIB--Version II-- is somewhat arbitrary, as the TSLIB programs were collected into a library some time ago; but operators tended to use and manage them as individual programs. Therefore, we will consider the group of programs from the past that were only on the CDC Cyber computer as Version 0; the programs from the past that were on both the Cyber and the IBM-compatible microcomputer as Version I; and the programs contained in this reference manual as Version II.

Report

Accuracy assessment of NOAA gridded daily reference evapotranspiration for the Texas High Plains

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides daily reference evapotranspiration (ET ref ) maps for the contiguous United States using climatic data from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). This data provides large-scale spatial representation of ET ref , which is essential for regional scale water resources management. Data used in the development of NOAA daily ET ref maps are derived from observations over surfaces that are different from short (grass — ET os ) or tall (alfalfa — ET rs ) reference crops, often in nonagricultural settings, which carries an unknown discrepancy between assumed and actual conditions. In this study, NOAA daily ET os and ET rs maps were evaluated for accuracy, using observed data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration (TXHPET) network. Daily ET os , ET rs and the climatic data (air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation) used for calculating ET ref were extracted from the NOAA maps for TXHPET locations and compared against ground measurements on reference grass surfaces. NOAA ET ref maps generally overestimated the TXHPET observations (1.4 and 2.2 mm/day ET os and ET rs , respectively), which may be attributed to errors in the NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed, to which reference ET ref is most sensitive. Therefore, a bias correction to NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed data, or adjustment to the resulting NOAA ET ref , may be needed to improve the accuracy of NOAA ET ref maps.

Texas

Hyperspectral Image Transects during Transient Events in Rivers (HITTER): Framework development and application to a tracer experiment on the Missouri River, USA

Rivers convey a broad range of materials, such as sediment, nutrients, and contaminants. Much of this transport can occur during or immediately after an episodic, pulsed event like a flood or an oil spill. Understanding the flow processes that influence the motion of these substances is important for managing water resources and conserving aquatic ecosystems. This study introduces a new remote sensing framework for characterizing dynamic phenomena at the scale of a channel cross-section: Hyperspectral Image Transects during Transient Events in Rivers (HITTER). We present a workflow that uses repeated hyperspectral scan lines acquired from a hovering uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) to quantify how a water attribute of interest varies laterally across the river and evolves over time. Data from a tracer experiment on the Missouri River are used to illustrate the components of the end-to-end processing chain we used to quantify the passage of a visible dye. The framework is intended to be flexible and could be applied in a number of different contexts. The results of this initial proof-of-concept investigation suggest that HITTER could potentially provide insight regarding the dispersion of a range of materials in rivers, which would facilitate ecological and geomorphic studies and help inform management.

Remote Sensing