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Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress

An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the prevalence of ecological thresholds across the natural world. While ecological thresholds are ubiquitous in some ecosystems, thresholds have been difficult to detect in others. Some studies have even concluded that threshold responses are uncommon in the natural world and overly emphasized in the ecological literature. As ecologists who work in ecosystems chronically exposed to high abiotic stress, we consider ecological thresholds and ecosystem transformations to be critical concepts that can greatly advance understanding of ecological responses to climate change and inform ecosystem management. But quantifying ecological thresholds can be challenging, if not impossible, without data that are strategically collected for that purpose. Here, we present a conceptual framework built upon linkages between abiotic stress, climate-driven ecological threshold responses, and the risk of ecosystem transformation. We also present a simple approach for quantifying ecological thresholds across abiotic stress gradients. We hypothesize that climate-driven threshold responses are especially influential in ecosystems chronically exposed to high abiotic stress, where autotroph diversity is low and foundation species play a prominent ecological role. Abiotic conditions in these environments are often near physiological tolerance limits of foundation species, which means that small abiotic changes can trigger landscape-level ecological transformations. Conversely, the alleviation of stress near thresholds can allow foundation species to thrive and spread into previously inhospitable locations. We provide examples of this climate-driven threshold behavior from four high-stress environments: coastal wetlands, coral reefs, drylands, and alpine ecosystems. Our overarching aim in this review is to clarify the strong relationships between abiotic stress, climate-driven ecological thresholds, and the risk of ecosystem transformation under climate change.

Ecosphere

Do the rich get richer? Varying effects of tree species identity and diversity on the richness of understory taxa

Understory herbs and soil invertebrates play key roles in soil formation and nutrient cycling in forests. Studies suggest that diversity in the canopy and in the understory are positively associated, but these studies often confound the effects of tree species diversity with those of tree species identity and abiotic conditions. We combined extensive field sampling with structural equation modeling to evaluate the simultaneous effects of tree diversity on the species diversity of understory herbs, beetles, and earthworms. The diversity of earthworms and saproxylic beetles was directly and positively associated with tree diversity, presumably because species of both these taxa specialize on certain species of trees. Tree identity also strongly affected diversity in the understory, especially for herbs, likely as a result of interspecific differences in canopy light transmittance or litter decomposition rates. Our results suggest that changes in forest management will disproportionately affect certain understory taxa. For instance, changes in canopy diversity will affect the diversity of earthworms and saproxylic beetles more than changes in tree species composition, whereas the converse would be expected for understory herbs and detritivorous beetles. We conclude that the effects of tree diversity on understory taxa can vary from positive to negative and may affect biogeochemical cycling in temperate forests. Thus, maintaining high diversity in temperate forests can promote the diversity of multiple taxa in the understory.

Ecology

Negative effects of an allelopathic invader on AM fungal plant species drive community‐level responses

The mechanisms causing invasive species impact are rarely empirically tested, limiting our ability to understand and predict subsequent changes in invaded plant communities. Invader disruption of native mutualistic interactions is a mechanism expected to have negative effects on native plant species. Specifically, disruption of native plant‐fungal mutualisms may provide non‐mycorrhizal plant invaders an advantage over mycorrhizal native plants. Invasive Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) produces secondary chemicals toxic to soil microorganisms including mycorrhizal fungi, and is known to induce physiological stress and reduce population growth rates of native forest understory plant species. Here, we report on a 11‐yr manipulative field experiment in replicated forest plots testing if the effects of removal of garlic mustard on the plant community support the mutualism disruption hypothesis within the entire understory herbaceous community. We compare community responses for two functional groups: the mycorrhizal vs. the non‐mycorrhizal plant communities. Our results show that garlic mustard weeding alters the community composition, decreases community evenness, and increases the abundance of understory herbs that associate with mycorrhizal fungi. Conversely, garlic mustard has no significant effects on the non‐mycorrhizal plant community. Consistent with the mutualism disruption hypothesis, our results demonstrate that allelochemical producing invaders modify the plant community by disproportionately impacting mycorrhizal plant species. We also demonstrate the importance of incorporating causal mechanisms of biological invasion to elucidate patterns and predict community‐level responses.

Ecology

Evaluating indicators of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise along a historical marsh loss gradient

Sea level rise (SLR) is threatening coastal marshes, leading to large‐scale marsh loss in several micro‐tidal systems. Early recognition of marsh vulnerability to SLR is critical in these systems to aid managers to take appropriate restoration or mitigation measures. However, it is not clear if current marsh vulnerability indicators correctly assess long‐term stability of the marsh system. In this study, two indicators of marsh stress were studied: (i) the skewness of the marsh elevation distribution, and (ii) the abundance of codominant species in mixtures. We combined high‐precision elevation measurements (GPS), LiDAR imagery, vegetation surveys and water level measurements to study these indicators in an organogenic micro‐tidal system (Blackwater River, Maryland, USA), where large‐scale historical conversion from marshes to shallow ponds resulted in a gradient of increasing marsh loss. The two indicators reveal increasingly stressed marshes along the marsh loss gradient, but suggest that the field site with the most marsh loss seems to experience less stress. For the latter site, previous research indicates that wind waves generated on interior marsh ponds contribute to lateral erosion of surrounding marsh edges and hence marsh loss. The eroded marsh sediment might temporarily provide the remaining marshes with the necessary sediment to keep up with relative SLR. However, this is only a short‐term alleviation, as lateral marsh edge erosion and sediment export lead to severe marsh loss in the long term. Our findings indicate that marsh elevation skewness and the abundance of codominant species in mixtures can be used to supplement existing marsh stress indicators, but that additional indices such as fetch length and the sediment budget should be included to account for lateral marsh erosion and sediment export and to correctly assess long‐term stability of micro‐tidal marshes.

Maryland

Linking tidal-creek sediment fluxes to vertical sediment accretion in a restored salt marsh

Despite growing interest and investment in salt-marsh restoration, relatively few marshes subjected to restoration efforts have been systematically monitored to assess physical restoration trajectory or success. In south San Francisco Bay, CA, USA, where 83% of wetlands were lost via human manipulation, the largest wetland restoration effort on the U.S. west coast is currently underway, restoring approximately 6,000 ha of former salt-production ponds to mixed habitats. The Whale’s Tail–Cargill Mitigation salt-marsh complex in south San Francisco Bay has a century-long history of drainage, industrial use as salt-production ponds, and subsequent restoration and recovery. Restoration of the 20-ha Cargill Mitigation Marsh was initiated in the late 1990s when the levee surrounding the subsided, former salt-production pond was breached in two locations, enabling conversion back to salt-marsh habitat in the subsequent decades. Here we present time-series measurements of sediment fluxes in the primary tidal creek entering the salt-marsh complex, which are compared to decadal-scale sedimentation patterns determined from repeat elevation surveys and cores collected at the study site. All three methods show net sediment import to the restored marsh. The greatest equivalent sedimentation rates occurred early in the restoration, with generally decreasing rates through time. The long-term average, as determined from cores and expressed as a vertical sedimentation rate, is approximately 1.8 cm yr -1 . Rates from the elevation data are between 1.4 and 2.6 cm yr -1 , with higher rates earlier in the restoration. The most recent estimates, computed from time-series instrument deployments, indicate seasonal variability in sediment import. Annualized rates are lower in winter, approximately 0.1 cm yr -1 , and higher in summer, approximately 1.7 cm yr -1 . Although our measured long-term equivalent sedimentation rates are considerably greater than the current local relative sea-level rise (SLR) of 0.3 cm yr -1 , an increase in SLR or decrease in available suspended sediment would threaten the ability of the marsh to keep pace with SLR and avoid drowning in the future.

California

Chemical characterization and mutagenic properties of polycyclic aromatic compounds in sediment from tributaries of the Great Lakes

Sediments from four inshore industrial sites and a reference site in the Great Lakes were extracted with solvents and characterized chemically for polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs). An aqueous phase and a crude organic extract were obtained. The crude organic extract was further resolved into fractions A-2 (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) and A-3 (nitrogen-containing polycyclic aromatic compounds), which were analyzed for PACs by gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The extracts and fractions were tested for mutagenicity in three assays: Ames, rat hepatocyte unscheduled DNA synthesis, and Chinese hamster ovary hypoxanthine-guanine phosphoribosyl transferase (CHO/HGPRT). Sediments from the industrial sites contained 27 to 363 μg/g total PACs; the reference site, less than 1 μg/g. Qualitative differences in the residue profiles among the sites were attributable to the probable sources of the PACs (petroleum versus combustion). Only one industrial site yielded measurable (0.1 μg/g or more) concentrations of individual nitrogen-containing PACs. In the Ames assay, only the highest doses of the A-2 fractions from two sites approached positive results. Conversely, the crude organic extract and A-2 and A-3 fractions from all sites induced unscheduled DNA synthesis. Crude organic extracts and the A-2 and A-3 fractions from all industrial sites gave well-defined dose-response relations in the CHO/HGPRT assay. We established the presence of chemical mutagens in sediment that could be correlated with neoplasms in fish from many of the sites; however, the mutagenicity of the sediment extracts was not completely related to the degree of contamination by PACs. We also discuss the utility of mutagenicity assays in the evaluation of complex chemical mixtures and recommend the use of a CHO/HGPRT-type assay in which cells are not required to proliferate in the presence of potential interfering chemicals.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Seasonal concentrations of organic contaminants at the fall line of the Susquehanna River basin and estimated fluxes to northern Chesapeake Bay, USA

Riverine fluxes of several pesticides and other organic contaminants from above the fall line of the Susquehanna River basin to northern Chesapeake Bay, USA, were quantified in 1994. Base flow and storm flow samples collected at the fall line of the river from February to December 1994 were analyzed for both dissolved and particulate phase contaminants. Measured concentrations of the organonitrogen and organophosphorus pesticides varied mainly in response to the timing of their application to agricultural fields. Conversely, the concentrations of the more particle-sorptive contaminants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine (OC) insecticides, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were more directly correlated with river flow throughout the year. Annual fluxes were almost entirely in the dissolved phase for the organonitrogen and organophosphorus pesticides, distributed between the dissolved and particulate phases for the PCBs and OC insecticides, and primarily in the particulate phase for the PAHs.

Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virg

Effects of nitrate and conductivity on embryo-larval fathead minnows

Nitrate concentrations have been rising in surface waters over the last century and now frequently exceed drinking water standards and environmental safety benchmarks globally. Health-wise, these trends are concerning because nitrate has been shown to disrupt endocrine function and developmental outcomes. The present study investigated potential sublethal effects of nitrate on developing fathead minnows. Fish were exposed from fertilization through 21 days postfertilization (dpf) to environmentally relevant concentrations of nitrate (0, 2, 5, 10, 25, or 100 mg/L NO 3 -N as NaNO 3 ). Nitrate effects on hatch timing, heart rate and rhythm at 3 dpf, growth through 21 dpf, swim bladder inflation timing and size, scoliosis, pericardial edema, and mortality were assessed. Because adding NaNO 3 increases water conductivity, two conductivity controls were included to match the ionic strength of the 10- and 100-mg/L NO 3 -N treatments. Increasing nitrate delayed posterior swim bladder (PSB) inflation in a dose-dependent manner, with possible inhibition of anterior swim bladder (ASB) inflation at higher doses, although nitrate did not affect swim bladder size. Conversely, nitrate did not affect hatch timing or cardiac endpoints at 3 dpf or induce pericardial edema or scoliosis, although there was a noted brood effect on these latter defects. As was observed with increasing nitrate, higher ion concentrations in the conductivity controls caused dose-dependent increases in fish body size at 21 dpf. Increased ionic strength also hastened ASB inflation independently of nitrate. As in other published studies, the observed delay in PSB inflation suggests that nitrate disrupts the thyroid axis and warrants further investigation. In addition, the present study supports the need for conductivity controls in nitrate toxicity studies to distinguish nitrate-specific effects. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1–13. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Merging scientific silos: Integrating specialized approaches for thinking about and using spatial data that can provide new directions for persistent fisheries problems

By merging our specialization silos, fisheries professionals can expand the options that are available to them to address difficult fisheries and aquatic conservation problems, which require an understanding of spatial patterns in geographically large systems. Our purpose is to start a profession-wide conversation about additional ways to think about and use spatial data. We use case studies to illustrate how identifying and merging multiple specialized approaches (e.g., fish tracking, fish surveys, geomorphology, social science, jurisdictional viewpoints) can create an ensemble that has advantages over the use of any single approach alone. Thus, our perspective is not about solving a specific technical problem with a new tool, but about the benefits of identifying gaps in data from one specialized approach, and filling those gaps with data from other specialized approaches. If multiple approaches are coordinated through a larger, problem-specific planning strategy, the result can be better outcomes for difficult problems through creative integration. We encourage others to add constructive ideas to the views initiated here.

Fisheries Magazine

Aging, climate, and invasions threaten reservoirs in the Mississippi basin

Reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin are facing three momentous threats. The first two, aging and climate change, are relatively slow moving and their signal can be hard to discern given their stretched temporal scales. The third, species invasions, is faster paced and discernable within shorter temporal scales and restricted spatial scales. Aging and climate directly affect reservoir environments and indirectly affect their biotic communities. Climate change is expected to interact with aging to speed up and, in some instances, slow down aging. Conversely, invasions primarily imperil biotic communities but can also impact environmental elements. This triple jeopardy is expected to transform reservoir environs and their biotic assemblages in various, often uncertain, ways. I take a broad view of these threats within the Mississippi River basin. A basin-scale perspective, in contrast to a single reservoir or regional scale, may enhance awareness of reservoirs at a larger level and produce understanding less evident at local levels, hence possibly offering a wider range of choices for confronting threats. My aim is to (1) provide a synopsis of the assemblage of reservoirs and their attributes over the Mississippi River basin, (2) describe the issues related to aging, climate change, and invasions, and (3) consider a conservation framework for confronting these pressures. Given the overlapping temporal, spatial, and ecological effects of these threats, it is essential to address their effects simultaneously.

Mississippi River basin

Rethinking the longitudinal stream temperature paradigm: region-wide comparison of thermal infrared imagery reveals unexpected complexity of river temperatures

Prevailing theory suggests that stream temperature warms asymptotically in a downstream direction, beginning at the temperature of the source in the headwaters and leveling off downstream as it converges to match meteorological conditions. However, there have been few empirical examples of longitudinal patterns of temperature in large rivers due to a paucity of data. We constructed longitudinal thermal profiles (temperature versus distance) for 53 rivers in the Pacific Northwest (USA) using an extensive dataset of remotely sensed summertime river temperatures and classified each profile into one of five patterns of downstream warming: asymptotic (increasing then flattening), linear (increasing steadily), uniform (not changing), parabolic (increasing then decreasing), or complex (not fitting other classes). We evaluated (1) how frequently profiles warmed asymptotically downstream as expected, and (2) whether relationships between river temperature and common hydroclimatic variables differed by profile class. We found considerable diversity in profile shape, with 47% of rivers warming asymptotically, and 53% having alternative profile shapes. Water temperature did not warm substantially over the course of the river for coastal parabolic and uniform profiles, and for some linear and complex profiles. Profile classes showed no clear geographical trends. The degree of correlation between river temperature and hydroclimatic variables differed among profile classes, but there was overlap among classes. Water temperature in rivers with asymptotic or parabolic profiles was positively correlated with August air temperature, tributary temperature and velocity, and negatively correlated with elevation, August precipitation, gradient, and distance upstream. Conversely, associations were less apparent in rivers with linear, uniform, or complex profiles. Factors contributing to the unique shape of parabolic profiles differed for coastal and inland rivers, where downstream cooling was influenced locally by climate or cool water inputs, respectively. Potential drivers of shape for complex profiles were specific to each river. These thermal patterns indicate diverse thermal habitats that may promote resilience of aquatic biota to climate change. Without this spatial context, climate change models may incorrectly estimate loss of thermally suitable habitat.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington

Hillslope groundwater discharges provide localized ecosystem buffers from regional PFAS contamination in a gaining coastal stream

Emerging groundwater contaminants such as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) may impact surface-water quality and groundwater-dependent ecosystems of gaining streams. Although complex near-surface hydrogeology of stream corridors challenges sampling efforts, recent advances in heat tracing of discharge zones enable efficient and informed data collection. For this study we used a combination of streambed temperature push-probe and thermal infrared methods to guide a discharge-zone-oriented sample collection along approximately 6 km of a coastal trout stream on Cape Cod, MA where groundwater discharge constitutes approximately 95% of total streamflow. Eight surface-water locations and discharging groundwater from 24 streambed and bank seepages were analyzed for dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, stable water isotopes, and a range of PFAS compounds which are contaminants of emerging concern in aquatic environments. The results indicate a complex system of groundwater discharge source flowpaths, where the sum of concentrations of six PFAS compounds (Environmental Protection Agency third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule UCMR 3) showed a median concentration of 52 331 (SD) ng/L with two higher outliers and three discharges with non-detection of PFAS. Higher UCMR 3 PFAS concentration was related -0.66 (Spearman Rank, p<0.001) to discharging groundwater that showed an evaporative signature (deuterium excess), indicating flow through at least one upgradient kettle lake. Therefore, more regional groundwater flowpaths originating from outside the local river corridor tended to show higher PFAS concentrations as evaluated at their respective discharge zones. Conversely, UCMR 3 PFAS concentrations were typically low at discharges that did not indicate evaporation and were adjacent to steep hillslopes and, therefore, were classified as locally recharged groundwater. Previous research at this stream found that the native brook trout favor discharge points of groundwater recharged on local hillslopes for spawning, likely in response to generally higher levels of dissolved oxygen compared to discharge zones located further away from hillslopes. Our study shows that the trout may thereby be avoiding emerging contaminants such as PFAS in groundwater recharged farther from the stream.

Massachusetts

Assessing plot-scale impacts of land use on overland flow generation in Central Panama

Land use in Panama has changed dramatically with ongoing deforestation and conversion to cropland and cattle pastures, potentially altering the soil properties that drive the hydrological processes of infiltration and overland flow. We compared plot-scale overland flow generation between hillslopes in forested and actively cattle-grazed watersheds in Central Panama. Soil physical and hydraulic properties, soil moisture and overland flow data were measured along hillslopes of each land-use type. Soil characteristics and rainfall data were input into a simple, 1-D representative model, HYDRUS-1D, to simulate overland flow that we used to make inferences about overland flow response at forest and pasture sites. Runoff ratios (overland flow/rainfall) were generally higher at the pasture site, although no overall trends were observed between rainfall characteristics and runoff ratios across the two land uses at the plot scale. Saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K s ) and bulk density were different between the forest and pasture sites ( p < 10 −4 ). Simulating overland flow in HYDRUS-1D produced more outputs similar to the overland flow recorded at the pasture site than the forest site. Results from our study indicate that, at the plot scale, Hortonian overland flow is the main driver for overland flow generation at the pasture site during storms with high-rainfall totals. We infer that the combination of a leaf litter layer and the activation of shallow preferential flow paths resulting in shallow saturation-excess overland flow are likely the main drivers for plot scale overland flow generation at the forest site. Results from this study contribute to the broader understanding of the delivery of freshwater to streams, which will become increasingly important in the tropics considering freshwater resource scarcity and changing storm intensities.

Hydrological Processes

Regional crop water use assessment using Landsat-derived evapotranspiration

Reliable information on water use and availability at basin and field scales are important to ensure the optimized constructive uses of available water resources. This study was conducted with the specific objective to estimate Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model across the state of South Dakota (SD), USA for the 1986–2018 (33-year) period. Validated ETa estimations (r 2 = 0.91, PBIAS = −4%, and %RMSE = 11.8%) were further used to understand the crop water-use characteristics and existing historic mono-directional (increasing/decreasing) trends over the eastern (ESD) and western (WSD) regions of SD. The crop water-use characteristics indicated that the annual cropland water uses across the ESD and WSD were more or less met by the precipitation amounts in the area. The ample water supply and distribution have led to high rainfed and low percentage of irrigated cropland (~2.5%) in the state. The WSD faced greater crop-water use reductions than the ESD during drought periods. The landscape ETa responses across the state were found to be more sensitive than precipitation for the drought impact assessments. The Mann Kendall trend analysis revealed the absence of a significant trend ( p > 0.05) in annual ETa at a regional scale due to the varying weather conditions in the state. However, about 12% and 9% cropland areas in the ESD and WSD, respectively, revealed a significant mono-directional trend at pixel scale ETa. Most of the pixels under significant trend showed an increasing trend that can be explained by the shift in agricultural practices, increased irrigated cropland area, higher productions, moisture regime shifts, and decreased risk of farming in the dry areas. The decreasing trend pixels were clustered in mid-eastern SD and could be the result of dynamic conversion of wetlands to croplands and decreased irrigation practices in the region. This study also demonstrates the tremendous potential and robustness of the SSEBop model, Landsat imagery, and remote sensing-based ETa modelling approaches in estimating consistent spatially distributed evapotranspiration.

South Dakota

Forest cover lessens hurricane impacts on peak streamflow

Cyclonic storms (i.e., hurricanes) are powerful disturbance events that often cause widespread forest damage. Storm-related canopy damage reduces rainfall interception and evapotranspiration, but impacts on streamflow regimes are poorly understood. We quantify streamflow changes in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria in September 2017, and evaluate whether forest cover and storm-related canopy damage account for the differences. Streams are particularly vulnerable to flooding in early post-disturbance stages during hurricane season, so we focus on 3 months (Oct–Dec) following the hurricane. To discern changes in rainfall responses, we partitioned streamflow into baseflow and quickflow using a digital filter. We collected 2010–2017 streamflow and rainfall data from 18 watersheds and compared the relative magnitude of post- to pre-hurricane double mass curve slopes of baseflow and quickflow volumes against rainfall. Several watersheds displayed higher post-hurricane quickflow and baseflow, however, the response was variable. The magnitude of quickflow increase was greater in watersheds with high forest damage. Under the same level of relative damage, watersheds with low initial forest cover had greater quickflow increases than highly forested ones. Conversely, baseflow generally increased, but increases were greater in highly forested watersheds and smaller in highly damaged watersheds. These results suggest that post-storm baseflow increases were due to recharge of hurricane-related rainfall, as well as forest transpiration interruption and soil disturbance enhancing recharge of post-hurricane rainfall, while increases to quickflow are related to loss of canopy rainfall interception and higher soil saturation decreasing infiltration. Our research demonstrates that forest damage from disturbance lowers quickflow and elevates baseflow in highly forested watersheds, and elevates quickflow and lowers baseflow in less-forested watersheds. Less-forested watersheds may be closer to the forest cover loss threshold needed to elicit a streamflow response following disturbance, suggesting higher flooding potential downstream, and a lower storm-related forest disturbance threshold than in heavily forested watersheds.

Puerto Rico

Advancing process‐based watershed hydrological research using near‐surface geophysics: A vision for, and review of, electrical and magnetic geophysical methods

We want to develop a dialogue between geophysicists and hydrologists interested in synergistically advancing process based watershed research. We identify recent advances in geophysical instrumentation, and provide a vision for the use of electrical and magnetic geophysical instrumentation in watershed scale hydrology. The focus of the paper is to identify instrumentation that could significantly advance this vision for geophysics and hydrology during the next 3–5 years. We acknowledge that this is one of a number of possible ways forward and seek only to offer a relatively narrow and achievable vision. The vision focuses on the measurement of geological structure and identification of flow paths using electrical and magnetic methods. The paper identifies instruments, provides examples of their use, and describes how synergy between measurement and modelling could be achieved. Of specific interest are the airborne systems that can cover large areas and are appropriate for watershed studies. Although airborne geophysics has been around for some time, only in the last few years have systems designed exclusively for hydrological applications begun to emerge. These systems, such as airborne electromagnetic (EM) and transient electromagnetic (TEM), could revolutionize hydrogeological interpretations. Our vision centers on developing nested and cross scale electrical and magnetic measurements that can be used to construct a three‐dimensional (3D) electrical or magnetic model of the subsurface in watersheds. The methodological framework assumes a ‘top down’ approach using airborne methods to identify the large scale, dominant architecture of the subsurface. We recognize that the integration of geophysical measurement methods, and data, into watershed process characterization and modelling can only be achieved through dialogue. Especially, through the development of partnerships between geophysicists and hydrologists, partnerships that explore how the application of geophysics can answer critical hydrological science questions, and conversely provide an understanding of the limitations of geophysical measurements and interpretation.

Hydrological Processes

Environmental controls of wood entrapment in upper Midwestern streams

Wood deposited in streams provides a wide variety of ecosystem functions, including enhancing habitat for key species in stream food webs, increasing geomorphic and hydraulic heterogeneity and retaining organic matter. Given the strong role that wood plays in streams, factors that influence wood inputs, retention and transport are critical to stream ecology. Wood entrapment, the process of wood coming to rest after being swept downstream at least 10 m, is poorly understood, yet important for predicting stream function and success of restoration efforts. Data on entrapment were collected for a wide range of natural wood pieces ( n = 344), stream geomorphology and hydraulic conditions in nine streams along the north shore of Lake Superior in Minnesota. Locations of pieces were determined in summer 2007 and again following an overbank stormflow event in fall 2007. The ratio of piece length to effective stream width (length ratio) and the weight of the piece were important in a multiple logistic regression model that explained 25% of the variance in wood entrapment. Entrapment remains difficult to predict in natural streams, and often may simply occur wherever wood pieces are located when high water recedes. However, this study can inform stream modifications to discourage entrapment at road crossings or other infrastructure by applying the model formula to estimate the effective width required to pass particular wood pieces. Conversely, these results could also be used to determine conditions (e.g. pre-existing large, stable pieces) that encourage entrapment where wood is valued for ecological functions.

Minnesota

Sampling designs for landscape-level eDNA monitoring programs using three-level occurrence models

Resource managers conduct landscape-level monitoring using environmental DNA (eDNA). These managers must contend with imperfect detection in samples and sub-samples (i.e., molecular analyses). This imperfect detection impacts their ability to both detect species and estimate occurrence. Although occurrence (synonymously occupancy) models can estimate these probabilities, most models and guidance for their application do not consider three levels. We studied this with three aims. First, we examined the number of samples required to detect a species at a site given imperfect detection. Second, we examined the ability of a three-level occurrence model to recover parameter estimates. Third, we examined the number of samples required to reliably recover parameter estimates. We found detecting eDNA in 1 sample at a site required 12 samples under most condition, but detection eDNA in situations that might be expected when looking for species at very low abundance required >50 samples. We found our occupancy model generally recovered known parameters unless detection and sample occurrence probabilities were <0.3. In these situations, >50 samples per site and 8 molecular replicates were required. Conversely, estimating and comparing occurrence and detection probabilities for species with moderate to high abundance may require 4 molecular replicates and 20-30 samples per site. More broadly, our findings illustrate the importance of study design, sample sizes, and molecular replicates for eDNA-based research, monitoring, and management.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management