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Nonnative Fishes in the Upper Mississippi River System

The introduction, spread, and establishment of nonnative species is widely regarded as a leading threat to aquatic biodiversity and consequently is ranked among the most serious environmental problems facing the United States today. This report presents information on nonnative fish species observed by the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program on the Upper Mississippi River System a nexus of North American freshwater fish diversity for the Nation. The Long Term Resource Monitoring Program, as part of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Environmental Management Plan, is the Nation's largest river monitoring program and stands as the primary source of standardized ecological information on the Upper Mississippi River System. The Long Term Resource Monitoring Program has been monitoring fish communities in six study areas on the Upper Mississippi River System since 1989. During this period, more than 3.5 million individual fish, consisting of 139 species, have been collected. Although fish monitoring activities of the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program focus principally on entire fish communities, data collected by the Program are useful for detecting and monitoring the establishment and spread of nonnative fish species within the Upper Mississippi River System Basin. Sixteen taxa of nonnative fishes, or hybrids thereof, have been observed by the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program since 1989, and several species are presently expanding their distribution and increasing in abundance. For example, in one of the six study areas monitored by the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program, the number of established nonnative species has increased from two to eight species in less than 10 years. Furthermore, contributions of those eight species can account for up to 60 percent of the total annual catch and greater than 80 percent of the observed biomass. These observations are critical because the Upper Mississippi River System stands as a nationally significant pathway for nonnative species expansion between the Mississippi River and the Great Lakes Basin. This report presents a synthesis of data on nonnative fish species observed during Long Term Resource Monitoring Program monitoring activities.

Scientific Investigations Report

Groundwater flow model investigation of the vulnerability of water resources at Chaco Culture National Historical Park related to unconventional oil and gas development

Chaco Culture National Historical Park (CCNHP), located in northwestern New Mexico, protects the greatest concentration of Chacoan historical sites in the American Southwest. Geologically, CCNHP is located within the San Juan structural basin, which consists in part of complex Cretaceous stratigraphy and hosts a variety of energy resources. As part of a larger study to investigate the vulnerability of water resources at CCNHP related to oil and natural gas extraction activities, a MODFLOW groundwater model of the Mancos Shale and Gallup Sandstone units was created by the U.S. Geological Survey, as a part of a cooperative study with the National Park Service, to assess advective groundwater flow paths and traveltimes. The model determined that groundwater flow directions currently trend from south-southeast to north-northwest within the vicinity of CCNHP, groundwater traveltime through the Gallup Sandstone ranges from thousands to tens of thousands of years, and traveltime through the Mancos Shale may range from millions to tens of millions of years. The capture zone of the main CCNHP well (referred to as the “Chaco well”) extends to the south-southeast and ranges in width from approximately 1 to 12 miles, depending on pumping rate. Eighteen inactive hydrocarbon related wells are located within the capture zone and within 10 kilometers of the Chaco well. Given model estimates of traveltimes of groundwater in the Gallup Sandstone aquifer, advective groundwater transport to the Chaco well would take approximately 430 years from the nearest inactive hydrocarbon related wells. Differencing of historical and modern-day potentiometric surfaces of the Gallup Sandstone indicate a drop in groundwater levels between 34 and 96 feet within the CCNHP boundaries. Hydraulic fracturing, simulated as increased hydraulic conductivity zones, decreased groundwater traveltimes (from millions to thousands of years) and acted as permeable pathways from the Mancos Shale to the Gallup Sandstone.

Arizona, New Mexico

Development of a hydrologic flow model of the Zuñi Salt Lake and surrounding areas, west-central New Mexico

The terminal Zuñi Salt Lake is in a maar in west-​central New Mexico and contains hypersaline water that has long been used by Native Americans for religious purposes and the collection of salt. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Zuni Tribe of the Zuni Reservation, New Mexico, and Bureau of Reclamation, developed the Zuñi Salt Lake hydrologic flow model to simulate the steady-state conditions of the lake and surrounding groundwater-flow system. The model is a tool that can be used to analyze the potential hydrologic responses to resource development in the region under different water-use scenarios, which can support negotiations that could help protect future use of the lake. The USGS modular hydrologic model, MODFLOW 6, was used to simulate the hydrologic system of the lake and surrounding areas. To define the layering of the model, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was constructed, which included seven informal hydrogeologic units and the locations of faults that truncate and offset the units. Calibration of the model was performed using the iterative ensemble smoother included in a parameter estimation software suite (PEST++). The iterative ensemble smoother approach resulted in a posterior parameter ensemble of model realizations with parameter and simulated values that show similar success in matching observations. Groundwater flux to the Zuñi Salt Lake simulated by using the posterior parameter distribution ranged from 26 to 730 acre-feet per year with a mean, median, and standard deviation of 530, 570, and 170 acre-feet per year, respectively. The relative contribution of groundwater discharge to the lake was simulated using a particle-tracking model for MODFLOW (MODPATH) to be from, in order of decreasing contribution, the Mesaverde, Cenozoic, Mancos, and Dakota hydrogeologic units. Simulations of future conditions using the ensemble of models can provide an empirical estimate of forecast uncertainty without substantial additional analysis.

New Mexico

Sources of water and salts for the Zuni Salt Lake in west-central New Mexico

The Zuni Salt Lake is located in a maar in west-central New Mexico and contains hypersaline water that has long been used by Native Americans for religious purposes and the collection of salt. There have been several investigations suggesting different sources for the water and salt to the lake. Springs, seeps, and ephemeral streamflow have all been observed to contribute freshwater to the lake, and brackish to hypersaline seeps have been documented along the banks of the lake. This report summarizes the findings of a study that characterizes the lake’s hydrology, its water and salinity sources, and the hydrogeologic conceptual model. Regional groundwater levels indicate that each of the aquifers in the area have the potential to discharge groundwater to the lake. There is also evidence of vertical groundwater flow pathways at the maar that were likely created by the igneous intrusion that fractured the intersecting aquifers. A detailed water budget was constructed from continuous lake stage, precipitation, and evaporation data to estimate the groundwater inflow to the Zuni Salt Lake. It was determined that groundwater inflow to the lake is 441 ±94 acre-feet per year, which composes as much as 77 percent of the total inflows. The high sodium and chloride concentrations measured in two hypersaline samples collected near the lake indicate that the majority of the dissolved solids entering the lake are from a hypersaline groundwater source. The geochemical and isotopic compositions measured in the lake and surrounding features support the interpretation that hypersaline groundwater is the primary source of salts to the lake, which is likely sourced from the older (and deeper) Permian units. The hypersaline groundwater samples collected during this investigation have a unique aqueous chemistry relative to each of the mapped aquifers, and variability in groundwater compositions is interpreted to result from differences in minerology and residence time.

New Mexico

Relation between selected water-quality variables and lake level in Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon

Upper Klamath Lake is a large (140 square-mile), shallow (mean depth about 8 ft) lake in south-central Oregon that the historical record indicates has been eutrophic since its discovery by non-Native Americans. In recent decades, however, the lake has had annual occurrences of near- monoculture blooms of the blue-green alga Aphanizomenon flos-aquae. In 1988 two sucker species endemic to the lake, the Lost River sucker (Deltistes luxatus) and the shortnose sucker (Chasmistes brevirostris), were listed as endangered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and it has been proposed that the poor water quality conditions associated with extremely long and productive blooms are contributing to the decline of those species. It has also been proposed that the low lake levels made possible by the construction of a dam at the outlet from the lake in 1921 have contributed to worsening water quality through a variety of possible mechanisms (Jacob Kann, Klamath Tribes, written commun., 1995). One such mechanism would be an increase in internal phosphorus loading from resuspended sediments (Jacoby and others, 1982), resulting from an increase in bottom shear stresses at lower lake levels (Laenen and LeTourneau, 1996), leading in turn to more intense algal blooms. Another possible mechanism is an earlier triggering of algal blooms. When early spring lake levels are low, greater light intensity at the sediment surface might speed recruitment of algal cells from the sediments. Sediment recruitment has been shown to be an important contributor to water column biomass increases in A. flos aquae (Barbiero and Kann, 1994) and Gloeotrichia echinulata (Barbiero, 1993). An earlier bloom could result in poor water quality conditions occurring earlier in the year, when young-of-the-year fish may be more susceptible to those conditions. Lake level can also influence water quality directly. An increased frequency of sediment resuspension at lower lake levels could increase chemical and biological oxygen demand, resulting in decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations. Sediment oxygen demand also may be enhanced at lower lake levels because it is concentrated over a smaller volume of water. Some compensation for increased oxygen demand at lower lake levels might be provided by increased reaeration, if the water column mixes from top to bottom more frequently. Based on the analysis of data that they have been collecting for several years, the Klamath Tribes recently recommended that the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) modify the operating plan for the dam to make the minimum lake levels for the June-August period more closely resemble pre-dam conditions (Jacob Kann, written commun., 1995). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to analyze the available data for the lake and to assess whether the evidence exists to conclude that year-to-year differences in certain lake water-quality variables are related to year-to-year differences in lake level. The results of the analysis will be used as scientific input in the process of developing an operating plan for the Link River Dam.

Oregon

Geologic map of the Lacamas Creek quadrangle, Clark County, Washington

The Lacamas Creek 7.5 minute quadrangle is in southwestern Washington, approximately 25 km northeast of Portland, Oregon, along the eastern margin of the Portland Basin, which is part of the Puget-Willamette Lowland that separates the Cascade Range from the Oregon Coast Range. Since late Eocene time, the Cascade Range has been the locus of an episodically active volcanic arc associated with underthrusting of oceanic lithosphere beneath the North American continent along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Lava flows that erupted early in the history of the arc underlie the eastern half of the Lacamas Creek quadrangle, forming a dissected terrain, with elevations as high as 2050 ft (625 m), that slopes irregularly but steeply to the southwest. These basalt and basaltic andesite flows erupted in early Oligocene time from one or more vents located outside the map area. The flows dip gently (less than 5 degrees) west to southwest. In the western part of the map area, volcanic bedrock is unconformably overlain by middle Miocene to early Pleistocene(?) sediments that accumulated as the Portland Basin subsided. These sediments consist mostly of detritus carried into the Portland Basin by the ancestral Columbia River. Northwest-striking faults offset the Paleogene basin floor as well as the lower part of the basin fill. In middle Pleistocene time, basalt and basaltic andesite erupted from three small volcanoes in the southern half of the map area. These vents are in the northern part of the Boring volcanic field, which comprises several dozen late Pliocene and younger monogenetic volcanoes scattered throughout the greater Portland region. In latest Pleistocene time, the Missoula floods of glacial-outburst origin inundated the Portland Basin. The floods deposited poorly sorted gravels in the southwestern part of the Lacamas Creek quadrangle that grade northward into finer grained sediments. This map is a contribution to a program designed to improve geologic knowledge of the Portland Basin region of the Pacific Northwest urban corridor, the densely populated Cascadia forearc region of western Washington and Oregon. More detailed information on the bedrock and surficial geology of the basin and its surrounding area is necessary to refine assessments of seismic risk, ground-failure hazards and resource availability in this rapidly growing region.

Scientific Investigations Map

Patterns and processes of pathogen exposure in gray wolves across North America

The presence of many pathogens varies in a predictable manner with latitude, with infections decreasing from the equator towards the poles. We investigated the geographic trends of pathogens infecting a widely distributed carnivore: the gray wolf ( Canis lupus ). Specifically, we investigated which variables best explain and predict geographic trends in seroprevalence across North American wolf populations and the implications of the underlying mechanisms. We compiled a large serological dataset of nearly 2000 wolves from 17 study areas, spanning 80° longitude and 50° latitude. Generalized linear mixed models were constructed to predict the probability of seropositivity of four important pathogens: canine adenovirus, herpesvirus, parvovirus, and distemper virus—and two parasites: Neospora caninum and Toxoplasma gondii . Canine adenovirus and herpesvirus were the most widely distributed pathogens, whereas N. caninum was relatively uncommon. Canine parvovirus and distemper had high annual variation, with western populations experiencing more frequent outbreaks than eastern populations. Seroprevalence of all infections increased as wolves aged, and denser wolf populations had a greater risk of exposure. Probability of exposure was positively correlated with human density, suggesting that dogs and synanthropic animals may be important pathogen reservoirs. Pathogen exposure did not appear to follow a latitudinal gradient, with the exception of N. caninum . Instead, clustered study areas were more similar: wolves from the Great Lakes region had lower odds of exposure to the viruses, but higher odds of exposure to N. caninum and T. gondii ; the opposite was true for wolves from the central Rocky Mountains. Overall, mechanistic predictors were more informative of seroprevalence trends than latitude and longitude. Individual host characteristics as well as inherent features of ecosystems determined pathogen exposure risk on a large scale. This work emphasizes the importance of biogeographic wildlife surveillance, and we expound upon avenues of future research of cross-species transmission, spillover, and spatial variation in pathogen infection.

Alaska, Alberta, Arizona, British Columbia, Michig

Chemical Data for Detailed Studies of Irrigation Drainage in the Salton Sea Area, California, 1995?2001

The primary purpose of this report is to present all chemical data from the Salton Sea area collected by the U.S. Geological Survey between 1995 and 2001. The data were collected primarily for the Department of the Interior's National Irrigation Water Quality Program (NIWQP). The report also contains a brief summary and citation to investigations done for the NIWQP between 1992 and 1995. The NIWQP began studies in the Salton Sea area in 1986 to evaluate effects on the environment from potential toxins, especially selenium, in irrigation-induced drainage. This data report is a companion to several reports published from the earlier studies and to interpretive publications that make use of historical and recent data from this area. Data reported herein are from five collection studies. Water, bottom material, and suspended sediment collected in 1995-96 from the New River, the lower Colorado River, and the All-American Canal were analyzed for elements, semi-volatile (extractable) organic compounds, and organochlorine compounds. Sufficient suspended sediment for chemical analyses was obtained by tangential-flow filtration. A grab sample of surficial bottom sediment collected from near the deepest part of the Salton Sea in 1996 was analyzed for 44 elements and organic and inorganic carbon. High selenium concentration confirmed the effective transfer (sequestration) of selenium into the bottom sediment. Similar grab samples were collected 2 years later (1998) from 11 locations in the Salton Sea and analyzed for elements, as before, and also for nutrients, organochlorine compounds, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Nutrients were measured in bottom water, and water-column profiles were obtained for pH, conductance, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. Element and nutrient concentrations were obtained in 1999 from cores at 2 of the above 11 sites, in the north subbasin of the Salton Sea. The most-recent study reported herein was done in 2001 and contains element data on suspended material isolated by continuous-flow centrifugation on samples collected in transects extending out from the Whitewater, the Alamo, and the New Rivers into the Salton Sea. Chemical data on suspended sediment and bottom material from tributory rivers and the Salton Sea itself show that many insoluble constituents, including selenium and DDE, are concentrated in the fine-grained, organic- and carbonate-rich bottom sediment from deep areas near the center of the Salton Sea. Data also show that selenium and arsenic are markedly enriched in seston (plankton, partially-degraded algal detritus, and mineral matter that compose suspended particulates in the lake) collected just below the water surface in the Salton Sea. This result indicates that bio-concentration in primary producers in the water column provides an important pathway whereby high selenium residues accumulate in fish and fish-eating birds at the Salton Sea.

Scientific Investigations Report

Estimating the power of a standardized monitoring program for sportfish in Georgia, USA

Objective Biological monitoring is a major component of management decisions and operating budgets of many natural resource management agencies. Given the scientific and financial commitments to monitoring, it is critical to estimate the ability to detect trends through time (i.e., power). Methods The Georgia Department of Natural Resources has monitored reservoir sport fish populations since the 1980s. We estimated the power to detect simulated long-term (≥10 years) changes in relative abundance (CPUE) for Largemouth Bass (some of which are a potential genetic admixture of the recently described species Micropterus nigricans [now known as Largemouth Bass] and M. salmoides [now known as Florida Bass)] and Black Crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus sampled with electrofishing and gill nets, respectively, across multiple reservoirs ( n = 21). Reservoir-specific simulations were parameterized using 13 years (∼2010–2022) of monitoring data. Power was calculated as the proportion of simulations ( n = 1,000) resulting in significant ( P ≤ 0.1) temporal trends across a 10-year period. We considered power ≥0.8 (i.e., 80% of simulations with significant trends) as the threshold for sufficient power across reservoirs. For both species, we estimated power under three scenarios: (1) declining CPUE, (2) increasing CPUE, and (3) reduction to biennial sampling effort with a 50% decline in CPUE. Results Most reservoirs had sufficient power to detect either a 50% decline or a 100% increase in CPUE of Largemouth Bass across a 10-year period. Switching from annual to biennial sampling for Largemouth Bass reduced the number of reservoirs with sufficient power by half. Power was generally lower for Black Crappie until larger declines (75%) or increases (400%) were imposed. Conclusions We found that Largemouth Bass monitoring was generally near or beyond our reference threshold, but post hoc correlation analyses suggested that the power of Black Crappie data could be increased with more within-reservoir station replication. Overall, using data simulation to estimate power proved a valuable tool in assessing the potential ability of common monitoring approaches to detect change.

Georgia

Development of an integrated hydrologic flow model of the Rio San Jose Basin and surrounding areas, New Mexico

The Rio San Jose Integrated Hydrologic Model (RSJIHM) was developed to provide a tool for analyzing the hydrologic system response to historical water use and potential changes in water supplies and demands in the Rio San Jose Basin. The study area encompasses about 6,300 square miles in west-central New Mexico and includes the communities of Grants, Bluewater, and San Rafael and three Native American Tribal lands: the Acoma and Laguna Pueblos and the Navajo Nation. Perennial surface water features are sparse in the study area and most water resources consist of groundwater pumped from sedimentary and basalt aquifers. Calibration of the RSJIHM was performed using PEST++ (version 4.3.20) and BeoPEST (version 13.6). Model parameter values were adjusted during calibration to fit model simulated values to the measured or estimated values for several observation groups: (1) solar radiation, (2) potential evapotranspiration, (3) actual evapotranspiration, (4) precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature, (5) snow water equivalent, (6) snow-covered area, (7) streamflow, (8) hydraulic head, (9) springflow at Ojo del Gallo, (10) springflow at Horace Springs, (11) surface-water releases from Bluewater Lake, and (12) surface-water diversions for irrigation within the Bluewater-Toltec Irrigation District. The simulated average annual hydrologic budget from 1950 through 2018 indicated that the majority (greater than 98 percent) of precipitation within the basin was consumed by evapotranspiration, leaving 1.2 percent to recharge the groundwater system, 0.47 percent to direct runoff to streams, and 0.20 percent to infiltrate the soil zone and interflow to streams. The average annual recharge to the groundwater system and runoff to streams simulated by the RSJIHM was about 28,000 and 11,000 acre-feet, respectively. The RSJIHM simulated about 590,000 acre-feet of cumulative aquifer storage depletion from 1950 through 2018. Additional work that could improve the simulation capability of the RSJIHM includes (1) further data collection (streamflow, head, springflow) in the southwestern subbasin that includes the El Malpais National Monument, (2) incorporating temporally variable vegetation parameters, (3) spatial downscaling of the hydrometeorological input datasets, (4) incorporating additional spatial variability to hydraulic property parameters on the basis of new data collection, and (5) using environmental tracers to verify and calibrate model parameters.

New Mexico

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report

Ground-Water System in the Chimacum Creek Basin and Surface Water/Ground Water Interaction in Chimacum and Tarboo Creeks and the Big and Little Quilcene Rivers, Eastern Jefferson County, Washington

A detailed study of the ground-water system in the unconsolidated glacial deposits in the Chimacum Creek Basin and the interactions between surface water and ground water in four main drainage basins was conducted in eastern Jefferson County, Washington. The study will assist local watershed planners in assessing the status of the water resources and the potential effects of ground-water development on surface-water systems. A new surficial geologic map of the Chimacum Creek Basin and a series of hydrogeologic sections were developed by incorporating LIDAR imagery, existing map sources, and drillers' logs from 110 inventoried wells. The hydrogeologic framework outlined in the study will help characterize the occurrence of ground water in the unconsolidated glacial deposits and how it interacts with the surface-water system. Water levels measured throughout the study show that the altitude of the water table parallels the surface topography and ranges from 0 to 400 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 across the basin, and seasonal variations in precipitation due to natural cycles generally are on the order of 2 to 3 feet. Synoptic stream-discharge measurements and instream mini-piezometers and piezometers with nested temperature sensors provided additional data to refine the positions of gaining and losing reaches and delineate seasonal variations. Chimacum Creek generally gains water from the shallow ground-water system, except near the community of Chimacum where localized losses occur. In the lower portions of Chimacum Creek, gaining conditions dominate in the summer when creek stages are low and ground-water levels are high, and losing conditions dominate in the winter when creek stages are high relative to ground-water levels. In the Quilcene Bay area, three drainage basins were studied specifically to assess surface water/ground water interactions. The upper reaches of Tarboo Creek generally gain water from the shallow ground-water system throughout most of the year and the lower reaches have little or no gains. The Big Quilcene River generally gains water from the shallow ground-water system after it emerges from a bedrock canyon and loses water from the town of Quilcene to the mouth of the river in Quilcene Bay. The Little Quilcene River generally loses water to the shallow ground-water system, although two localized areas were found to have gaining conditions. The Big Quilcene and Little Quilcene Rivers incur significant losses on the alluvial plain at the head of Quilcene Bay. Each of the creeks examined had a unique pattern of gaining and losing reaches, owing to the hydraulic conductivity of the streambed material and the relative altitude of the surrounding water table. Although the magnitudes of gains and losses varied seasonally, the spatial distribution did not vary greatly, suggesting that patterns of gains and losses in surface-water systems depend greatly on the geology underlying the streambed.

Scientific Investigations Report

Future water-supply scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).] Future scenarios 4 to 9 represent withdrawals and the effects on the water supply while using estimated full build-out water demands. In most townships, existing wells would be used for withdrawals in the simulation. However, in Lower and Middle Townships, the Wildwoods, and the Cape Mays, withdrawals from some wells would be terminated, reduced, or increased. Depending on the scenario, proposed production wells would be installed in locations far from the saltwater fronts, in deep freshwater aquifers, in deeper saltwater aquifers, or proposed injection wells would be installed to inject reused water to create a freshwater barrier to saltwater intrusion. Simulations indicate that future Scenarios 4 to 9 would reduce many of the adverse effects of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. No future scenario will minimize all adverse impacts. In Scenario 4, Lower Township would drill two production wells in the Cohansey aquifer farther from the Delaware shoreline than existing wells and reduce withdrawals from wells near the shoreline. Wildwood Water Utility (WWU) would reduce withdrawals from existing wells in the Cohansey aquifer and increase withdrawals from wells in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone. Results of the simulation indicate that saltwater intrusion and ecological-water supply problems would be reduced but not as much as in Scenarios 5, 7, 8, and 9. In Scenario 5, the Wildwoods and Lower Township each would install a desalination plant and drill two wells to withdraw saltwater from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Saltwater intrusion problems would be reduced to the greatest extent with this scenario. Ecological water supplies remain constant or decline from 2003 baseline values. Water-level altitudes would decline to -193 ft in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, the deepest potentiometric level for all scenarios. In Scenario 6, Lower Township would build a tertiary treatment system and drill three wells open to the Cohanse

New Jersey

Using Christmas Bird Count data in analysis of population change

The scientific credibility of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) results depend on the development and implementation of appropriate methods of statistical analysis. The key to any successful analysis of CBC data is to begin with a careful review of how the limitations of the data are likely to influence the results of the analysis, then to choose methods of analysis that accommodate as much as possible the limitations of the survey. For our analyses of CBC data, we develop a flexible model for effort adjustment and use information from the data to guide the selection of the best model. We include geographic structuring to accommodate the regional variation in number of samples, use a model that allows for overdispersed poisson data appropriate for counts, and employ empirical Bayes procedures to accommodate differences in quality of information in regional summaries. This generalized linear model approach is very flexible, and can be applied to a variety of studies focused on factors influencing wintering bird populations. In particular, the model can be easily modified to contain covariates, allowing for assessment of associations between CBC counts and winter weather, disturbance, and a variety of other environmental factors. These new survey analysis methods have added value in that they provide insights into changes in survey design that can enhance the value of the information. The CBC has been extremely successful as a tool for increasing public interest in birding and bird conservation. Use of the information for bird conservation creates new demands on quality of information, and it is important to maintain a dialogue between users of the information, information needs for the analyses, and survey coordinators and participants. Our work as survey analysts emphasizes the value and limitations of existing data, and provides some indications of what features of the survey could be modified to make the survey a more reliable source of bird population data. Surveys only remain useful if they adapt to current needs, while still maintaining consistency with historical goals.

American Birds

Bathymetry and capacity of Chambers Lake, Chester County, Pennsylvania

Introduction Chambers Lake is a manmade reservoir on Birch Run, a tributary to West Branch Brandywine Creek in Chester County, Pennsylvania. The lake was created in 1994 after the completion of Multi-Purpose Dam PA-436F (Hibernia Dam), which was built under the Watershed Protection & Flood Control Prevention Act (U.S. Soil Conservation Service, 1991). Hibernia dam is 1,700 feet upstream from the confluence of Birch Run with West Branch Brandywine Creek. The primary objectives for Hibernia Dam were to provide (1) flood control, (2) a supplemental source of water supply for the greater City of Coatesville public water system, and (3) recreational opportunities. The drainage basin of Chambers Lake encompasses approximately 4.5 square miles, and the lake covers a surface area of about 95 acres at normal pool, which is at an elevation of 579.2 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) [580.0 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29)]. The crest of the auxiliary spillway of the dam is 586.6 feet above NAVD 88. The elevation of the auxiliary spillway is important to this investigation because this elevation defines the flood storage capacity of Chambers Lake. Water levels exceeding this elevation are routed through the auxiliary spillway and flow through adjoining woodland to Birch Run. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Chester County Water Resources Authority (CCWRA) and the County of Chester, surveyed the bathymetry and selected above-water features of Chambers Lake in September 2014. The purpose of the survey was to develop an accurate representation of the surface of the bottom of Chambers Lake and to determine the stage area and reservoir-storage capacity relation as of September 2014. CCWRA is responsible for operation of the dam and water-supply reservoir. Since construction, CCWRA has used a stage–storage capacity relation developed from the original survey conducted in the 1990s to estimate the volume of water available for water supply and the available flood storage. The bathymetric mapping effort was initiated due to interest in potential changes in current (2014) storage capacity when compared to the stage–storage capacity relation developed during design. The generated bathymetric surface may serve as a baseline to which temporal changes in storage capacity, owing to sedimentation and other factors, can be compared. In addition, these data will improve the overall accuracy of the stage–storage capacity table that CCWRA uses for reservoir and flood management operations. This report describes the methods used to create a bathymetric map of Chambers Lake for the computation of reservoir storage capacity as of September 2014. The product is a bathymetric map and a table showing the storage capacity of the reservoir at 2-foot increments from minimum usable elevation up to full capacity at the crest of the auxiliary spillway.

Pennsylvania

Landscape and climatic influences on actual evapotranspiration and available water using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) Model in eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico, 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bernalillo County Public Works Division, conducted a 1-year study in 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of evapotranspiration (ET) and available water within the East Mountain area in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. ET and available water vary spatiotemporally because of complex interactions among environmental factors, including vegetation characteristics, soil characteristics, topography, and climate. Precipitation data from the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) ( P ) were used in conjunction with actual ET ( ETa ) data from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model to estimate available water ( P – ETa ) at 100-meter (m) resolution in the study area. Maps, descriptive statistics, boxplots, regression analyses (continuous data), and multiple comparison tests (categorical data) were used to characterize P , ETa , and available water and their relations to topographic, soil, and vegetation datasets in the East Mountain area. Five categories of the natural land-cover type (evergreen forest, shrub, herbaceous, deciduous forest, and mixed forest) and four categories of developed land-cover type specific to residential intensity (developed open, developed low, developed medium, and developed high) were analyzed individually and in interaction with multiple elevation, tree canopy, and soil texture classes. Annual mean P in 2015 in the East Mountain area was 608 millimeters (mm), and annual mean ETa was 543 mm (89 percent of annual P in 2015), indicating that in 2015, a spatial mean of about 65 mm of water was available for runoff, soil moisture replenishment, or groundwater recharge. Monthly ETa was greatest in July and smallest in January. The intervening months did not show smooth temporal or consistent spatial changes from month to month. Months with lower ETa (January to March, October to December) also tended to have greater available water, indicating that soil moisture (water supply) and potential ET (water demand) may have been out of phase. Regression analyses showed that monthly ETa data had the highest correlation with annual ETa among the atmospheric, topographic, soil, or vegetation datasets, particularly during the early and late growing season (March, April, May, and September). In contrast, monthly P was highly variable and not as highly correlated with annual ETa . Among landscape variables, correlations with annual ETa were highest for tree canopy cover (coefficient of determination [R 2 ] = 0.46). Correlations between ETa and other landscape variables were lower (R 2 = 0.06–0.19): available soil water in the top 100 centimeters, soil bulk density of layer 1, slope, sand content of soil layer 1, soil depth, available soil water in the top 25 centimeters, leaf area index, aspect eastness, and elevation. Evergreen forest areas had the highest annual median ETa , followed by mixed forest, open residential areas, and deciduous forest. Available water typically was higher in landcover types with lower ETa : herbaceous cover, followed by deciduous forest, high-intensity developed areas, and shrub. Deciduous forest had the second highest median available water, despite having the fourth highest ETa , because deciduous forest had greater P than most other areas. Annual median ETa typically was greatest in the second highest elevation band (2,401–2,800 m above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]), and lower in the highest elevation band (2,801–3,254 m above NAVD 88), despite having greater P , likely because of decreased tree canopy cover or a shift from evergreen to deciduous trees at the highest elevations. Annual median ETa increased with tree canopy cover, regardless of landcover type. ETa correlation was higher with tree canopy than with leaf area index or normalized difference vegetation index. This result indicates that it is important to include the thermal band (from satellite multispectral data) in vegetation indices used to describe ETa , perhaps to account for the influence of energy limitation or water limitation on ET. Of all natural landcover types, finer soils had the most available water, whereas coarser soils had the least available water. Relations of soil type with P – ETa were different than with ETa , indicating ET and available water have a complex response to differences in soil type. Further modeling would be useful in determining soils’ infiltration, storage, conductivity, and plant-water availability relations to individual storms for each position in the landscape, as well as the corresponding effects of these processes on ET and available water. The best multivariate linear model for annual ETa had an R 2 value of 0.62. Monthly ETa models had R 2 values between 0.16 and 0.65. Models usually, but not always, performed best during the growing season. These results indicate that even the best multivariate linear models cannot explain a notable amount of the variability in ET. The monthly ETa models with the highest correlations (August and September) followed a July having almost twice the mean precipitation for July (1981–2010), which indicates that a soil-moisture variable is needed to more accurately model monthly ETa . Further study is needed to better characterize this system, the variables that affect ET and available water, and the partitioning of available water into runoff, soil moisture storage, and groundwater recharge.

New Mexico

Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and constraints on adaptive capacity (characteristics of the surrounding landscape) rather than exposure to external forces, including climate change. Output will allow individual park managers to understand which metrics weigh most heavily in the overall vulnerability of their park and can be used for region-wide responses and resource allocation for adaptation efforts.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michiga

Effects of beaver dams and ponds on hydrologic and hydraulic responses of storm flows in urban streams of the Tualatin River Basin, northwestern Oregon

Significant Findings American beaver ( Castor canadensis ) dams fundamentally alter stream hydraulics and hydrology by temporarily impounding water in stream channels. Water managers are interested in how this impoundment translates to changes in hydrograph dynamics, particularly regarding the magnitude and duration of high flows, the temporary storage of storm water, and the range and spatial distribution of water depths and velocities. High-resolution two-dimensional hydraulic models were developed to compare hydraulic responses to storm events in two 1-kilometer long, relatively small (less than 5-meter-wide channel), urban stream reaches in the Tualatin River Basin (northwestern Oregon) with and without beaver dams. Results from modeling unsteady storm events show that: (1) beaver dams generally attenuate (temporarily impound) more water during storm events than an undammed reach, (2) the timing and dynamics of this attenuation are complicated and thus do not always result in a reduction of peak flows, and (3) the influence of beaver dams on stream hydraulics diminishes as the magnitude of flow events increase. Local geomorphic conditions, specifically the presence of off-channel features, affect the extent to which dams alter hydrograph dynamics. Although the magnitudes of peak flows are not substantially affected by the beaver dams considered in this study, results show that beaver dams temporarily impound a considerable amount of water throughout the duration of storms, which slows water conveyance to downstream reaches. Steady-state streamflow simulations at several streamflow magnitudes were also used to assess how beaver dams affect stream depths, velocities, and inundated areas, which are important factors affecting aquatic habitats. Results show that beaver dams result in a more hydraulically diverse stream, with substantially more inundated area, lower velocities, and greater depths than corresponding undammed scenarios. However, these differences diminish as streamflows increase and the channels overflow their banks and become hydraulically connected to adjacent floodplains. Together, these results confirm that beaver dams can fundamentally change urban stream channel hydraulics, but the influence of these dams is bounded by local geomorphic controls and is diminished at large streamflows.

Oregon