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Sediment source fingerprinting as an aid to large-scale landscape conservation and restoration: A review for the Mississippi River Basin

Reliable quantitative information on sediment sources to rivers is critical to mitigate contamination and target conservation and restoration actions. However, the determination of the relative importance of sediment sources is complicated at the scale of large river basins by immense variability in erosional processes and sediment sources over space and time, heterogeneity in sediment transport and deposition, and a paucity of sediment monitoring data. Sediment source fingerprinting is an increasingly adopted field-based technique that identifies the nature and relative source contribution of sediment transported in waterways. Notably, sediment source fingerprinting provides information that is independent of other field, modeling, or remotely sensed techniques. However, the diversity in sediment fingerprinting sampling, analytical, and interpretive methods has been recognized as a problem in terms of developing standardized procedures for its application at the scale of large river basins. Accordingly, this review focuses on established sediment source fingerprinting studies conducted within the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), summarizes unique information provided by sediment source fingerprinting that is distinct from traditional monitoring techniques, evaluates consistency and reliability of methodological approaches among MRB studies, and provides prospects for the use of the sediment source fingerprinting technique as an aid to large-scale landscape conservation and restoration under current management frameworks. Most established MRB studies got creditable fingerprinting results and considered near-channel sources as the dominant sediment sources in most cases, while the comparability of their results suffers from a lack of standardization in procedural steps. Findings from MRB studies demonstrate that sediment source fingerprinting is a highly valuable and reliable sediment source assessment approach to assist land and water resource management under current management frameworks, but efforts are still needed to make this technique ready to be used in a more predominant way in large-scale landscape conservation and restoration efforts. We summarized research needs and suggested the best fingerprinting practices for management purposes with the aim of ensuring that this technique is as robust and reliable as it moves forward.

Mississippi River Basin

Upper Mississippi River Restoration future hydrology meeting series

The Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) program, a broad partnership of State and Federal agencies administered by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, integrates ecosystem monitoring, research, and modeling to rehabilitate habitat and evaluate ecosystem trends over time in the Upper Mississippi River System. Hydrologic data are integral to the UMRR program because they are used in scientific research, decision-making, and restoration project planning. However, a lack of quantitative hydrologic data representing potential future conditions limits the ability to complete informative research on how future conditions may affect river ecology, achieve management goals, and design restoration projects for 50-year horizons. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers led a series of workshops with UMRR partners to (1) prioritize needs for understanding future hydrology, (2) discuss appropriate datasets that could address these needs, and (3) develop a plan for acquiring and distributing a hydrologic dataset of potential future conditions. Agency priorities for understanding future hydrology were broad, spanning ecologic, geomorphic, resource management, and engineering disciplines, and were identified for a range of spatial (project site, navigation pool, reach, system) and temporal (daily, seasonal, annual) scales. The LOcalized Constructed Analogs-Variable Infiltration Capacity-mizuRoute hydrologic data products were identified as a potential source of off-the-shelf data to meet UMRR priority needs but warranted a robust quantitative evaluation. The final meeting in the series scoped a proposal to evaluate the LOcalized Constructed Analogs-Variable Infiltration Capacity-mizuRoute hydrologic data products for use in UMRR applications, including contingencies if the data were determined to be unreliable.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

Well logging with californium-252

Californium 252 is an isotopic neutron source that has only recently become available for experimental well logging. One curie of 252Cf emits 4.4 x 109 neutrons per second by spontaneous fission, 300 times the emission rate of any other one curie radioisotopic source. California 252 has several other advantages as a high yield source for well logging: very small physical size, low gamma and heat emission, and expected low cost relative to other sources. A 50-millicurie 252Cf source fabricated at the Savannah River Laboratory was made available by the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission to the U. S. Geological Survey for a feasibility study on well logging. The nuclear and physical characteristics of this source and some of the health physics aspects of its use in the field are discussed. The source was used to make epithermal neutron logs, which are compared with logs made with plutonium beryllium and americium beryllium sources in the same well. The high neutron flux available from 252Cf permitted the use of longer than usual spacing while maintaining a high count rate and excellent sensitivity. In addition, continuous activation logs were made utilizing a spacing of 5. 5 feet from the source to detector. Aluminum 28 was identified as the chief radioisotope contributing to the log response. This new technique may provide a log more closely related to clay content than the natural gamma log. Stationary irradiation experiments were also carried out in boreholes, and sodium 24 and manganese 56 were readily produced and identified. Suggestions for additional research on logging applications and problems resulted from this feasibility study. Potential well logging applications not investigated include the activation of temporary depth markers and the use of stable tracers that can be activated at the site or in the well. The high neutron yield of californium 252 will facilitate in situ activation analysis for many elements as an aid to exploration for oil, water, and other minerals.

Conference Paper

Combining InSAR and GPS to determine transient movement and thickness of a seasonally active low-gradient translational landslide

The combined application of continuous Global Positioning System data (high temporal resolution) with spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar data (high spatial resolution) can reveal much more about the complexity of large landslide movement than is possible with geodetic measurements tied to only a few specific measurement sites. This approach is applied to an ~4 km 2 reactivated translational landslide in the Columbia River Gorge (Washington State), which moves mainly during the winter rainy season. Results reveal the complex three-dimensional shape of the landslide mass, how onset of sliding relates to cumulative rainfall, how surface velocity during sliding varies with location on the topographically complex landslide surface, and how the ground surface subsides slightly in weeks prior to downslope sliding.

Geophysical Research Letters

Assessing risk for enhanced cyanobacteria, phytoplankton, and pathogens with changes in water level regime with potential application to Lake Powell and Lake Mead: A mixed methods literature review

Water levels in freshwater reservoirs worldwide are changing due to altered climate, management practices, and increasing human demand for water. In the desert southwestern USA, managers are considering significant changes to reservoir operation strategies and water management in response to consumptive use and ongoing drought. To inform reservoir management decision-making, we reviewed current peer-reviewed literature to identify the effects of decreasing or increasing water level on phytoplankton, cyanobacteria, Escherichia coli , and Naegleria spp. We identified 34 studies containing 42 individual waterbodies that investigated the effects of water level increases or decreases on phytoplankton or cyanobacteria. We found that water level decreases resulted in a higher likelihood of increased cyanobacteria, and that phytoplankton were more likely to decrease in response to water level increases. Most of the waterbodies included in the literature review were eutrophic or hypereutrophic, underscoring the need to explore the effects of water level fluctuations on oligotrophic systems. We only identified five studies on E. coli through our review, and no studies on Naegleria spp. We supplemented our review with regional white papers and case studies within the Colorado River Basin and the Rio Grande River Basin to highlight relevant research. Prior and ongoing research highlights the need to explore impacts of water level fluctuations on phytoplankton and cyanobacteria to guide future management decision-making.

Arizona, Utah, Nevada

A comparison of sediment toxicity test methods at three Great Lake Areas of Concern

The significance of sediment contamination is often evaluated using sediment toxicity (bioassay) testing. There are relatively few “standardized” test methods for evaluating sediments. Popular sediment toxicity methods examine the extractable water (elutriate), interstitial water, or whole (bulk) sediment phases using test species spanning the aquatic food chain from bacteria to fish. The current study was designed to evaluate which toxicity tests were most useful in evaluations of sediment contamination at three Great Lake Areas of Concern. Responses of 24 different organisms including fish, mayflies, amphipods, midges, cladocerans, rotifers, macrophytes, algae, and bacteria were compared using whole sediment or elutriate toxicity assays. Sediments from several sites in the Buffalo River, Calumet River (Indiana Harbor), and Saginaw River were tested, as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Assessment and Remediation of Contaminated Sediments (ARCS) Project. Results indicated several assays to be sensitive to sediment toxicity and able to discriminate between differing levels of toxicity. Many of the assay responses were significantly correlated to other toxicity responses and were similar based on factor analysis. For most applications, a test design consisting of two to three assays should adequately detect sediment toxicity, consisting of various groupings of the following species: Hyalella azteca, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Chironomus riparius, Chironomus tentans, Daphnia magna, Pimephales promelas, Hexagenia bilineata, Diporeia sp., Hydrilla verticillata, or Lemna minor.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21 st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

California

Potential for Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems applications for identifying groundwater-surface water exchange in a meandering river reach

The exchange of groundwater and surface water (GW-SW), including dissolved constituents and energy, represents a critical yet challenging characterization problem for hydrogeologists and stream ecologists. Here, we describe the use of a suite of high spatial-resolution remote-sensing techniques, collected using a small unmanned aircraft system (sUAS), to provide novel and complementary data to analyze GW-SW exchange. sUAS provided centimeter-scale resolution topography and water surface elevations, which are often drivers of exchange along the river corridor. Additionally, sUAS-based vegetation imagery, vegetation-top elevation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) mapping indicated GW-SW exchange patterns that are difficult to characterize from the land surface and may not be resolved from coarser satellite-based imagery. We combined these data with estimates of sediment hydraulic conductivity to provide a direct estimate of GW “shortcutting” through meander necks, which was corroborated by temperature data at the riverbed interface.

Geophysical Research Letters

Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for terrestrial applications and are not optimized for streams. A new class of spatial statistical model, based on valid covariance structures for stream networks, can be used with many common types of stream data (e.g., water quality attributes, habitat conditions, biological surveys) through application of appropriate distributions (e.g., Gaussian, binomial, Poisson). The spatial statistical network models account for spatial autocorrelation (i.e., nonindependence) among measurements, which allows their application to databases with clustered measurement locations. Large amounts of stream data exist in many areas where spatial statistical analyses could be used to develop novel insights, improve predictions at unsampled sites, and aid in the design of efficient monitoring strategies at relatively low cost. We review the topic of spatial autocorrelation and its effects on statistical inference, demonstrate the use of spatial statistics with stream datasets relevant to common research and management questions, and discuss additional applications and development potential for spatial statistics on stream networks. Free software for implementing the spatial statistical network models has been developed that enables custom applications with many stream databases.

WIREs Water

Upper Auglaize watershed AGNPS modeling project

The Upper Auglaize Watershed agricultural non-point source modeling project was an interagency effort to use a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling approach for assessing and reducing pollution from agricultural runoff and other non-point sources. This project applied the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service’s AGricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) suite of models to the Upper Auglaize River Watershed, a major watershed within the Maumee River Basin. This modeling project was conducted by an interagency team consisting of a partnership between the: (1) USDA, Agricultural Research Service (ARS); (2) USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS); (3) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE); (4) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); (5) Ohio State University; (6) University of Toledo (UT); (7) Heidelberg College; (8) Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), Division of Soil and Water Conservation; (9) Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA); and (10) Allen, Auglaize, Van Wert, and Putnam Soil and Water Conservation Districts. The partnership was the first step in a process to eventually apply the model in a portioned subset of watersheds for the Maumee Basin, and then to link them to form a comprehensive basin-wide model This work was performed under the authority of Section 516(e) of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) of 1996, as amended, for the purpose of assisting State and local watershed managers with their evaluation, prioritization and implementation of alternatives for soil conservation, sediment trapping and non-point source pollution prevention in the Upper Auglaize River watershed. The project team, working in a cooperative effort, used the models to determine sediment sources, contributing locations, and the effect of application of best management practices (BMPs) on rates of sediment delivery to the mouth of the watershed. The results will be used to guide conservation incentive and land treatment programs. The team relied heavily on Geographic Information System (GIS)-based applications to expedite the application of the model. The results of the analysis demonstrated that the application of BMPs would have a positive effect on reducing the loadings of sediment leaving the mouth of the Upper Auglaize Watershed. An application of 17 percent new no-till acres and eight percent new grassland acres, when randomly applied to the watershed, reduced loadings at the mouth to 82 percent of the simulated existing condition loadings. No-till, conversion of cropland to grassland, other uses including grass buffers, and reforestation of parts of the watershed, were all shown by the model to have a measurable effect on reducing sediment loads. Conversion of all of the cropland in the watershed to no-till would reduce the average unit load (tons of sediment per acre) leaving the mouth of the watershed to a level that is 42 percent of the simulated existing condition load. Ephemeral gullies were found to be the primary source of erosion (72 percent), sediment yield (73 percent), and sediment loading (73 percent). Controlling sediment load means controlling gully erosion and possibly trapping sediment yield before it reaches the stream system. Most BMPs (e.g., no-till, conversion of cropland, etc.) that reduce sheet and rill erosion and its sediment yield will also reduce gully erosion and its sediment yield. However, grassed waterways, which have no effect on sheet and rill erosion, are frequently an effective BMP to prevent ephemeral gullies. And, of course, riparian vegetation and sediment traps would reduce the delivery ratios of all types of landscape erosion. New techniques were developed by the team to quantify the ephemeral gully erosion within the model. When calibrated to available stream gage data the model suggests that more (73% in the existing condition simulation) of the sediment load originates from ephemeral gully erosion than from traditional sheet and rill erosion. The model quantified the value of tile drainage in reducing the sediment load from the watershed. Loadings under drained conditions were always less than loadings under undrained conditions for otherwise identical land uses. The average sediment load of all alternatives for drained loadings was 89.2 percent of the load for the corresponding undrained loadings. The model established that while many conservation incentive programs treat tile drainage as a production practice, significant erosion and sediment control benefits are provided by the practice in comparison to cultivation in an undrained state.

Ohio

A hydrogeomorphic river network model predicts where and why hyporheic exchange is important in large basins

Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.

Geophysical Research Letters

Modeling downstream fining in sand-bed rivers. I: Formulation

In this paper a numerical modeling formulation is presented for simulation of the development of the longitudinal profile and bed sediment distribution in sand-bed rivers. The objective of the model application, which is presented in the companion paper (Wright and Parker, 2005), is to study the development of two characteristics of large, low-slope, sand-bed rivers: (1) a downstream decrease in bed slope (i.e. concave upward longitudinal profile) and (2) a downstream decrease in characteristic bed sediment diameter (e.g. the median bed surface size D 50 ). Three mechanisms that lead to an upward concave profile and downstream fining are included in the modeling formulation: (1) a delta prograding into standing water at the downstream boundary, (2) sea-level rise, and (3) tectonic subsidence. In the companion paper (Wright and Parker, 2005) the model is applied to simulate the development of the longitudinal profile and downstream fining in sand-bed rivers flowing into the ocean during the past 5000 years of relatively slow sea-level rise.

Journal of Hydraulic Research

Aquatic vegetation dynamics in the Upper Mississippi River over 2 decades spanning vegetation recovery

Macrophytes have recovered in rivers across the world, but long-term data and studies are lacking regarding community assembly and diversity changes coincident with macrophyte recovery. We investigated patterns of aquatic vegetation species composition and diversity in thousands of sites in the Upper Mississippi River, USA, spanning 21 y of monitoring and a period of vegetation recovery. We analyzed site-level compositional dissimilarity and environmental associations using non-metric multidimensional scaling, compared stability of lake-level assemblages over time with convex hulls, and assessed shared trends in assemblage dissimilarity at the pool scale using dynamic factor analysis. Site-level differences in aquatic vegetation assemblage structure were associated with water depth and substrate, and a gradient of species abundance and diversity was apparent. A common trend in assemblage dissimilarity over time and across contiguous floodplain lakes indicate that assemblage composition changed and diversity increased with considerable synchrony within the past 21 y. Shared trends across the 400-km study reach are indicative of 1 or more widespread, common drivers; however, neither hydrologic extremes nor turbidity explained vegetation assemblage patterns. Following several years of strong changes in composition and increased diversity, the vegetation assemblage displayed signs of increasing stability in some pools but not others. Further research is needed to identify drivers and mechanisms of aquatic vegetation assemblage expansion, assembly, and resilience, all of which will be applicable to the recovery of aquatic vegetation in floodplain systems worldwide.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Pulsed flows, tributary inputs, and food web structure in a highly regulated river

1.Dams disrupt the river continuum, altering hydrology, biodiversity, and energy flow. Although research indicates that tributary inputs have the potential to dilute these effects, knowledge at the food web level is still scarce. 2.Here we examined the riverine food web structure of the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam, focusing on organic matter sources, trophic diversity, and food chain length. We asked how these components respond to pulsed flows from tributaries following monsoon thunderstorms that seasonally increase streamflow in the American Southwest. 3.Tributaries increased the relative importance of terrestrial organic matter, particularly during the wet season below junctures of key tributaries. This contrasted with the algal-based food web present immediately below Glen Canyon Dam. 4.Tributary inputs during the monsoon also increased trophic diversity and food chain length: food chain length peaked below the confluence with the largest tributary (by discharge) in Grand Canyon, increasing by >1 trophic level over a 4-5 kilometre reach possibly due to aquatic prey being flushed into the mainstem during heavy rain events. 5.Our results illustrate that large tributaries can create seasonal discontinuities, influencing riverine food web structure in terms of allochthony, food web diversity, and food chain length. 6.Synthesis and applications. Pulsed flows from unregulated tributaries following seasonal monsoon rains increase the importance of terrestrially-derived organic matter in large, regulated river food webs, increasing food chain length and trophic diversity downstream of tributary inputs. Protecting unregulated tributaries within hydropower cascades may be important if we are to mitigate food web structure alteration due to flow regulation by large dams. This is critical in the light of global hydropower development, especially in megadiverse, developing countries where dam placement (including completed and planned structures) is in tributaries.

Colorado River

Methodology and implications of maximum paleodischarge estimates for mountain channels, upper Animas River basin, Colorado, U.S.A.

Historical and geologic records may be used to enhance magnitude estimates for extreme floods along mountain channels, as demonstrated in this study from the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Historical photographs and local newspaper accounts from the October 1911 flood indicate the likely extent of flooding and damage. A checklist designed to organize and numerically score evidence of flooding was used in 15 field reconnaissance surveys in the upper Animas River valley of southwestern Colorado. Step-backwater flow modeling estimated the discharges necessary to create longitudinal flood bars observed at 6 additional field sites. According to these analyses, maximum unit discharge peaks at approximately 1.3 m3 s-1 km-2 around 2200 m elevation, with decreased unit discharges at both higher and lower elevations. These results (1) are consistent with Jarrett's (1987, 1990, 1993) maximum 2300-m elevation limit for flash-flooding in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, and (2) suggest that current Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) estimates based on a 24-h rainfall of 30 cm at elevations above 2700 m are unrealistically large. The methodology used for this study should be readily applicable to other mountain regions where systematic streamflow records are of short duration or nonexistent.

Colorado

Modeling downstream fining in sand-bed rivers. II: Application

In this paper the model presented in the companion paper, Wright and Parker (2005) is applied to a generic river reach typical of a large, sand-bed river flowing into the ocean in order to investigate the mechanisms controlling longitudinal profile development and downstream fining. Three mechanisms which drive downstream fining are studied: a delta prograding into standing water, sea-level rise, and tectonic subsidence. Various rates of sea-level rise (typical of the late Holocene) and tectonic subsidence are modeled in order to quantify their effects on the degree of profile concavity and downstream fining. Also, several other physical mechanisms which may affect fining are studied, including the relative importance of the suspended versus bed load, the effect of the loss of sediment overbank, and the influence of the delta bottom slope. Finally, sensitivity analysis is used to show that the grain-size distribution at the interface between the active layer and substrate has a significant effect on downstream fining.

Journal of Hydraulic Research

Integrating airborne remote sensing and field campaigns for ecology and Earth system science

In recent years, the availability of airborne imaging spectroscopy (hyperspectral) data has expanded dramatically. The high spatial and spectral resolution of these data uniquely enable spatially explicit ecological studies including species mapping, assessment of drought mortality and foliar trait distributions. However, we have barely begun to unlock the potential of these data to use direct mapping of vegetation characteristics to infer subsurface properties of the critical zone. To assess their utility for Earth systems research, imaging spectroscopy data acquisitions require integration with large, coincident ground‐based datasets collected by experts in ecology and environmental and Earth science. Without coordinated, well‐planned field campaigns, potential knowledge leveraged from advanced airborne data collections could be lost. Despite the growing importance of this field, documented methods to couple such a wide variety of disciplines remain sparse. We coordinated the first National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) survey performed outside of their core sites, which took place in the Upper East River watershed, Colorado. Extensive planning for sample tracking and organization allowed field and flight teams to update the ground‐based sampling strategy daily. This enabled collection of an extensive set of physical samples to support a wide range of ecological, microbiological, biogeochemical and hydrological studies. We present a framework for integrating airborne and field campaigns to obtain high‐quality data for foliar trait prediction and document an archive of coincident physical samples collected to support a systems approach to ecological research in the critical zone. This detailed methodological account provides an example of how a multi‐disciplinary and multi‐institutional team can coordinate to maximize knowledge gained from an airborne survey, an approach that could be extended to other studies. The coordination of imaging spectroscopy surveys with appropriately timed and extensive field surveys, along with high‐quality processing of these data, presents a unique opportunity to reveal new insights into the structure and dynamics of the critical zone. To our knowledge, this level of co‐aligned sampling has never been undertaken in tandem with AOP surveys and subsequent studies utilizing this archive will shed considerable light on the breadth of applications for which imaging spectroscopy data can be leveraged.

Colorado

Assessment of extreme subsurface hydrologic conditions captured during atmospheric river storms in the San Francisco Bay area (California, USA) with applications to shallow landslide early warning

An increase in soil pore water pressure is the typical trigger for the majority of landslides caused by rainfall. Atmospheric river storms, common to the west coast of North America during the winter season, can deliver landslide triggering rainfall resulting in severe impacts to coastal communities. Using a network of hydrologic monitoring stations situated within landslide-prone terrain in the San Francisco Bay area of California (USA), we assess the meteorologic conditions and resulting hydrologic and landslide response resulting from eight consecutive storm events that caused thousands of shallow landslides during the winter of 2022–2023. We find disparate hydrological responses and resultant degrees of observed landsliding ranging from < 1 landslide/km2 to 18 landslides/km2 at the monitoring sites that reflect the interplay and differences between rainfall delivery, subsurface hydrological characteristics, and geotechnical properties at each site. Antecedent soil moisture from both early season rainfall and the first storm in the sequence played a critical role in setting up some hillslopes for failure. Subsequent storms then generated elevated pore water pressures for several hours with associated landsliding. However, we find that the occurrence of widespread landsliding required not only sufficient pore water pressure magnitude in susceptible hillslopes, but also full and prolonged effective soil saturation throughout hillslope profiles. Landslides may still occur at lower values and durations of effective saturation but are likely to be less extensive regionally. We present these findings within the context of research directions and improvements to landslide early warning systems first suggested by researchers 40 years ago.

California