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USGS2016

Shifting currents: Progress, setbacks, and shifts in policy and practice

The Wisconsin Academy’s initial Waters of Wisconsin project (WOW I) facilitated a statewide conversation between 2000 and 2003 around one main question: How can we ensure healthy aquatic ecosystems and clean, abundant water supplies for tomorrow’s Wisconsin? Robust participation in this conversation underscored the important role citizens have in the stewardship of our waters, and we found enthusiastic support for farsighted policies—based on sound science—to manage our water legacy. Overall, we found that Wisconsinites cherish water and see our waters as essential to our way of life in Wisconsin. Nationally, our state ranks 25th in land area but has the fourth-highest area covered by water. Wisconsin is 20th in population but is second only to Florida in the number of fishing licenses sold each year. Clean water supports billions of dollars’ worth of economic activity through tourism, agriculture, and industry. From the Northwoods cabin to the Port of Milwaukee to the Wisconsin Dells, water shapes our state’s identity. Our tradition of safeguarding Wisconsin’s waters is grounded in values such as responsibility to family and future generations, respect for land and wildlife, protecting public health and safety, and caring for water as a common good, as articulated in the state’s Public Trust Doctrine (see page 9). These deeply held values have also shaped a conservation ethic, and its legacy has served many generations who depend upon and enjoy the waters of the state. Through WOW I, we identified the need to overcome the institutional and disciplinary separation of science, policy, and management protocols through a more integrated approach to water management. WOW also affirmed that the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and other public agencies play a critical role in sound scientific application, citizen participation, and the practical implementation of policy while balancing public and private interests toward the goal of a clean water future. More than a decade has passed since our first statewide WOW conversation and the report that captured recommendations from its participants: Waters of Wisconsin: The Future of Our Aquatic Ecosystems and Resources. Drawing from a diverse and growing set of stakeholders from across the state, the Wisconsin Academy initiated a new conversation in 2012 (known as WOW II) to assess progress in regard to our 2003 recommendations. We also sought to review the status of waters in Wisconsin today. The result of this renewed conversation is Shifting Currents: Progress, Setbacks, and Shifts in Policy and Practice. The new report assesses progress in brief, and explores in greater depth the continuing and emerging challenges to water quality, supply, and aquatic ecosystems in Wisconsin. In this report, we first review the context and frameworks for public decision-making about water and then examine some of the root causes—or “drivers”—and ecological stressors that underlie many of the symptoms we see in the form of pollution or ecosystem degradation in Wisconsin. This is followed by a summary of current water issues, many of which had been identified in the 2003 report and remain relevant today. We examine progress since 2003 but also setbacks, and discuss issues that we are likely to continue to face in the coming decades, including controlling agricultural runoff, mitigating climate change and grappling with its effects on the state’s waters, protecting groundwater from bacterial contamination and other pollutants, and preventing groundwater depletion. We also attempt to anticipate issues on the horizon. We offer a deeper look at some particular challenges, such as phosphorus pollution and groundwater contamination. We then consider the current decision-making framework and how it is shaping our capacity to respond to water challenges in Wisconsin. Finally, we offer recommendations and identify opportunities to safeguard Wisconsin’s waters in the decades ahead. From its inception, the Wisconsin Academy’s Waters of Wisconsin Initiative has brought together a diverse community of experts from across the state and from varied fields and areas of interest, to address challenges and seize opportunities related to our precious waters. We have done so as a matter of both principle and practical reality: the state of our waters reflects the ways we interact not only with them, but also with one another and our institutions. The WOW Initiative has aimed to provide guidance for Wisconsin citizens in sustaining the health of our aquatic ecosystems and the resilience of our water supplies over the long term.

Report↗

USGS2014

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the detection of multiple potentially influential low outliers. Streamgage basin characteristics were determined using geographical information system techniques. Initial ordinary least squares regression simulations reduced the number of basin characteristics on the basis of such factors as statistical significance, coefficient of determination, Mallow’s Cp statistic, and ease of measurement of the explanatory variable. Application of generalized least squares regression techniques produced final predictive (regression) equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions (HR1, Piedmont–Ridge and Valley; HR3, Sand Hills; and HR4, Coastal Plain), which previously had been defined from exploratory regression analysis in the Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation. Because of the limited availability of urban streamgages in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, additional urban streamgages in Florida and New Jersey were used in the regression analysis for this region. Including the urban streamgages in New Jersey allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 3.5 to 53.5 square miles. Average standard error of prediction for the predictive equations, which is a measure of the average accuracy of the regression equations when predicting flood estimates for ungaged sites, range from 25.0 percent for the 10-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Piedmont–Ridge and Valley region to 73.3 percent for the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Sand Hills region.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2016

Development of an adaptive harvest management program for Taiga bean geese

This report describes recent progress in specifying the elements of an adaptive harvest program for taiga bean goose. It describes harvest levels appropriate for first rebuilding the population of the Central Management Unit and then maintaining it near the goal specified in the AEWA International Single Species Action Plan (ISSAP). This report also provides estimates of the length of time it would take under ideal conditions (no density dependence and no harvest) to rebuild depleted populations in the Western and Eastern Management Units. We emphasize that our estimates are a first approximation because detailed demographic information is lacking for taiga bean geese. Using allometric relationships, we estimated parameters of a thetalogistic matrix population model. The mean intrinsic rate of growth was estimated as r = 0.150 (90% credible interval: 0.120 – 0.182). We estimated the mean form of density dependence as   2.361 (90% credible interval: 0.473 – 11.778), suggesting the strongest density dependence occurs when the population is near its carrying capacity. Based on expert opinion, carrying capacity (i.e., population size expected in the absence of hunting) for the Central Management Unit was estimated as K  87,900 (90% credible interval: 82,000 – 94,100). The ISSAP specifies a population goal for the Central Management Unit of 60,000 – 80,000 individuals in winter; thus, we specified a preliminary objective function as one which would minimize the difference between this goal and population size. Using the concept of stochastic dominance to explicitly account for uncertainty in demography, we determined that optimal harvest rates for 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons were h = 0.00, 0.02, 0.05, and 0.06, respectively. These optima represent a tradeoff between the harvest rate and the time required to achieve and maintain a population size within desired bounds. We recognize, however, that regulation of absolute harvest rather than harvest rate is more practical, but our matrix model does not permit one to calculate an exact harvest associated with a specific harvest rate. Approximate harvests for current population size in the Central Management Unit are 0, 1,200, 2,300, and 3,500 for the 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons, respectively. Populations of taiga bean geese in the Western and Eastern Units would require at least 10 and 13 years, respectively, to reach their minimum goals under the most optimistic of scenarios. The presence of harvest, density dependence, or environmental variation could extend these time frames considerably. Finally, we stress that development and implementation of internationally coordinated monitoring programs will be essential to further development and implementation of an adaptive harvest management program.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Preliminary field report of landslide hazards following Hurricane Helene

Executive Summary This report reflects our knowledge regarding the widespread landslide activity associated with Hurricane Helene observed during the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission assignment to North Carolina in October 2024. The material in this report was originally prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency under mission assignment DR-4827-NC. The data and commentary in this report are reflective of a report provided to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on October 18, 2024, as well as information provided in briefings at the Buncombe County Emergency Operations Center. The report has been modified for public dissemination. This assessment was based on systematic visual examination and mapping of landslide locations from aerial and satellite imagery, visual and photographic observations from low-level helicopter overflights and conversations with local landslide experts from the North Carolina Geological Survey and Appalachian Landslide Consultants PLLC, and more than 50 years of combined landslide hazard professional experience of the mission-assigned field team. No systematic field investigations were done by the USGS. While responding to the event, the USGS did not identify any landslides that posed an immediate major threat to recovery personnel in parts of nine counties in North Carolina (Avery, Buncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Watauga, and Yancey); however, threats from renewed landslide activity may remain heightened in localized areas for months or even years. Known areas of the most abundant landslide occurrence include Bat Cave, Lake Lure, Chimney Rock, Swannanoa, Black Mountain, Fairview, steep areas in Asheville, and the Blue Ridge Parkway. The USGS shared detailed locations of known landslides with the Emergency Operations Centers. The thousands of landslide scars on hillsides and landslide deposits on flatter ground may present some threat to recovery activities. Soil and rocks will continue to erode from newly exposed landslide scars and may pose a threat to people and infrastructure who are immediately nearby. In general, the steeper and taller the landslide scar, the greater the potential threat. This threat is heightened during periods of rainfall and increases with the duration and intensity of rainstorms. Very heavy rainfall, or repeated rainfall events during short periods, could also initiate new landslides on steep slopes. Excavation of landslide deposits, particularly excavation of those deposits directly adjacent to steep slopes, may also pose a threat to nearby people and equipment. An interagency collaborative mapping effort led by the USGS that informed this assessment identified 1,155 landslide locations by the October 2024 briefings, but that number increased to 2,217 in a final reviewed version of the locations published in January 2025. Locations were mapped from satellite imagery, fixed-wing and helicopter surveys, media and social media, and field reports in the 3 weeks following the passage of the remnants of Hurricane Helene. USGS products outlined in this report are publicly available and include geotagged photographs from aerial reconnaissance, hazard models, an interactive view of mapped landslide locations, and landslide safety and education resources.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virgini↗

USGS2014

Simulation of groundwater flow and saltwater movement in the Onslow County area, North Carolina: predevelopment-2010

Onslow County, North Carolina, is located within the designated Central Coastal Plain Capacity Use Area (CCPCUA). The CCPCUA was designated by law as a result of groundwater level declines of as much as 200 feet during the past four decades within aquifers in rocks of Cretaceous age in the central Coastal Plain of North Carolina and a depletion of water in storage from increased groundwater withdrawals in the area. The declines and depletion of water in storage within the Cretaceous aquifers increase the potential for saltwater migration—both lateral encroachment and upward leakage of brackish water. Within the CCPCUA, a reduction in groundwater withdrawals over a period of 16 years from 2003 to 2018 is mandated. Under the CCPCUA rules, withdrawals in excess of 100,000 gallons per day from any of the Cretaceous aquifer well systems are subject to water-use reductions of as much as 75 percent. To assess the effects of the CCPCUA rules and to assist with groundwater-management decisions, a numerical model was developed to simulate the groundwater flow and chloride concentrations in the surficial Castle Hayne, Beaufort, Peedee, and Black Creek aquifers in the Onslow County area. The model was used to (1) simulate groundwater flow from 1900 to 2010; (2) assess chloride movement throughout the aquifer system; and (3) create hypothetical scenarios of future groundwater development. After calibration of a groundwater flow model and conversion to a variable-density model, five scenarios were created to simulate future groundwater conditions in the Onslow County area: (1) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules with three phases of withdrawal reductions simulated through 2028; (2) implementation of only phase 1 withdrawal reductions of the CCPCUA rules and simulated through 2028; (3) implementation of only phases 1 and 2 withdrawal reductions of the CCPCUA rules and simulated through 2028; (4) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules with the addition of withdrawals from the Castle Hayne aquifer in Onslow County at the fully permitted amount in the final stress period and simulated through 2028; and (5) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules as in scenario 1 except simulated through 2100. Results from the scenarios give an indication of the water-level recovery in the Black Creek aquifer throughout each phase of the CCPCUA rules in Onslow County. Furthermore, as development of the Castle Hayne aquifers was increased in the scenarios, cones of depression were created around pumping centers. Additionally, the scenarios indicated little to no change in chloride concentrations for the time periods simulated.

North Carolina↗

USGS2004

Basic ground-water hydrology

Ground water is one of the Nation's most valuable natural resources. It is the source of about 40 percent of the water used for all purposes exclusive of hydropower generation and electric powerplant cooling. Surprisingly, for a resource that is so widely used and so important to the health and to the economy of the country, the occurrence of ground water is not only poorly understood but is also, in fact, the subject of many widespread misconceptions. Common misconceptions include the belief that ground water occurs in underground rivers resembling surface streams whose presence can be detected by certain individuals. These misconceptions and others have hampered the development and conservation of ground water and have adversely affected the protection of its quality. In order for the Nation to receive maximum benefit from its ground-water resource, it is essential that everyone, from the rural homeowner to managers of industrial and municipal water supplies to heads of Federal and State water-regulatory agencies, become more knowledgeable about the occurrence, development, and protection of ground water. This report has been prepared to help meet the needs of these groups, as well as the needs of hydrologists, well drillers, and others engaged in the study and development of ground-water supplies. It consists of 45 sections on the basic elements of ground-water hydrology, arranged in order from the most basic aspects of the subject through a discussion of the methods used to determine the yield of aquifers to a discussion of common problems encountered in the operation of ground-water supplies. Each section consists of a brief text and one or more drawings or maps that illustrate the main points covered in the text. Because the text is, in effect, an expanded discussion of the illustrations, most of the illustrations are not captioned. However, where more than one drawing is included in a section, each drawing is assigned a number, given in parentheses, and these numbers are inserted at places in the text where the reader should refer to the drawing. In accordance with U.S. Geological Survey policy to encourage the use of metric units, these units are used in most sections. In the sections dealing with the analysis of aquifer (pumping) test data, equations are given in both consistent units and in the inconsistent inch-pound units still in relatively common use among ground-water hydrologists and well drillers. As an aid to those who are not familiar with metric units and with the conversion of ground-water hydraulic units from inch-pound units to metric units, conversion tables are given on the inside back cover. Definitions of ground-water terms are given where the terms are first introduced. Because some of these terms will be new to many readers, abbreviated definitions are also given on the inside front cover for convenient reference by those who wish to review the definitions from time to time as they read the text. Finally, for those who need to review some of the simple mathematical operations that are used in ground-water hydrology, a section on numbers, equations, and conversions is included at the end of the text.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2013

Environmental consequences of the Retsof Salt Mine roof collapse

In 1994, the largest salt mine in North America, which had been in operation for more than 100 years, catastrophically flooded when the mine ceiling collapsed. In addition to causing the loss of the mine and the mineral resources it provided, this event formed sinkholes, caused widespread subsidence to land, caused structures to crack and subside, and changed stream flow and erosion patterns. Subsequent flooding of the mine drained overlying aquifers, changed the groundwater salinity distribution (rendering domestic wells unusable), and allowed locally present natural gas to enter dwellings through water wells. Investigations including exploratory drilling, hydrologic and water-quality monitoring, geologic and geophysical studies, and numerical simulation of groundwater flow, salinity, and subsidence have been effective tools in understanding the environmental consequences of the mine collapse and informing decisions about management of those consequences for the future. Salt mines are generally dry, but are susceptible to leaks and can become flooded if groundwater from overlying aquifers or surface water finds a way downward into the mined cavity through hundreds of feet of rock. With its potential to flood the entire mine cavity, groundwater is a constant source of concern for mine operators. The problem is compounded by the viscous nature of salt and the fact that salt mines commonly lie beneath water-bearing aquifers. Salt (for example halite or potash) deforms and “creeps” into the mined openings over time spans that range from years to centuries. This movement of salt can destabilize the overlying rock layers and lead to their eventual sagging and collapse, creating permeable pathways for leakage of water and depressions or openings at land surface, such as sinkholes. Salt is also highly soluble in water; therefore, whenever water begins to flow into a salt mine, the channels through which it flows increase in diameter as the surrounding salt dissolves. Some mines leak at a slow rate for decades before a section of rock gives way, allowing what initially was a trickle of water to suddenly become a cascade and finally a torrent. Other mines become flooded and are destroyed when an errant drill hole punctures the mine ceiling, allowing water from overlying sources to flow into the mine. Either scenario can cause catastrophic flooding and permanent loss of the mine. Occasionally, a mine that has remained dry for a century will undergo a roof collapse that results in flooding.

New York↗

USGS2021

Streambank erosion and related geomorphic change in Tuolumne Meadows, Yosemite National Park, California

Landscape change in Tuolumne Meadows, Yosemite National Park, California, was characterized using data derived from four lidar surveys: one airborne survey in 2006 and three terrestrial surveys in 2016, 2017, and 2018. These surveys were used to generate a better quantitative understanding of changes associated with fluvial processes along the reach of the Tuolumne River within Tuolumne Meadows. This research was performed to provide a scientific basis for restoration and management decisions made by the National Park Service in accordance with the Tuolumne Wild and Scenic River Final Comprehensive Management Plan. A total of 15 reaches of the streambanks along the Tuolumne River in Tuolumne Meadows were subject to measurable streambank erosion between 2006 and 2018. In these areas, streambank retreat rates ranged between 0 and 2.7 meters per year (m/yr), recorded as an average retreat distance along the length of changing streambank position, with most retreat rates being less than 0.50 m/yr. The highest streambank retreat rates are associated with a year of high spring streamflow in 2017. Based on the data available, it was concluded that deposition on channel and point bars balances streambank erosion over a period of 12 years along the Tuolumne River in Tuolumne Meadows. As such, the river could be considered to be in a state of dynamic equilibrium during this period; erosion and sedimentation occur in distinct pulses in response to hydrological forcing but it is not clear that there is a trend towards sediment accumulation or removal in Tuolumne Meadows nor is there an obvious trend toward channel widening or narrowing. The existence of visible paleochannels in the meadow are an indication that more dramatic channel planform geometry changes have occurred in Tuolumne Meadows over an undetermined period and may occur again in the future. Geomorphic change rates relate to hydrology; during the study period, the high water in 2017 led to the highest rates of geomorphic change. Land managers should anticipate that floods with discharge rates greater than the peak flow in 2017 may cause more substantial landscape change than what was observed in this study, but erosion resulting from these events may be balanced by channel and point-bar deposition over a period of years.

California↗

USGS2020

Book review: Proceedings of the First International Snakehead Symposium

Snakehead fishes (family Channidae) are among the most maligned aquatic invasive species in the USA and some other countries where they have been introduced outside of their native range in Asia and Africa. Nevertheless, snakeheads continue to be widely exploited in the live‐food trade in aquaculture and wild‐capture fisheries, are highly sought by anglers, and are also popular in the aquarium trade (Courtenay and Williams 2004). The Northern Snakehead Channa argus is the most widespread of the three channid species that are currently naturalized in the USA. This species has generated much concern and controversy, a situation that is partly fueled by sensational media coverage and B‐grade science fiction horror films, such as “Frankenfish,” “Snakehead Terror,” and “Snakehead Swamp.” Media reports of snakehead introductions are often replete with provocative terms, such as “vicious,” “villain,” “voracious,” “monster,” “diabolical,” and even “ecological Armageddon.” When snakeheads first appeared in natural waters of the USA, fisheries professionals became increasingly interested in their status. Established populations rapidly expanded in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas, with scattered reports of introduced snakeheads from isolated locations in Hawaii, California, North Carolina, Florida, the Upper Midwest, and New England. In 2002, snakeheads were added to the list of injurious fishes under the Lacey Act, thereby prohibiting their importation or transport across state lines without a permit. This symposium was conceived by the editors and other concerned fisheries professionals of the Mississippi River Basin Panel on Aquatic Invasive Species. The mission of the symposium, held in Alexandria, Virginia, in July 2018, was to bring together experts on snakehead biology and ecology and to synthesize existing information into summary papers. In this book, 35 authors contributed to 15 peer‐reviewed articles that detail the current state of knowledge about snakehead introductions in the USA. Additionally, 16 abstracts are included from meeting presentations that were not accompanied by full‐length manuscripts. Also included is a summary of a facilitated symposium panel discussion featuring eight experts representing state and federal natural resource agencies and private fishing organizations. The book is organized into six sections. In the first section (Distribution), three papers provide an overview of the Channa species introduced into the USA and historical accounts of occurrence and dispersal of the Northern Snakehead in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas. The second section (Biology/Ecology) consists of two articles that examine growth and energetics of Northern Snakehead populations and two papers that investigate diet, diel feeding activity, and movement of this species in the Potomac River drainage. The third section (Monitoring/Response) includes a paper that models range expansion of the Northern Snakehead in the southeastern USA based on occurrence data and environmental conditions. Also included in this section is a paper summarizing an environmental DNA study to assess the status and range of the Bullseye Snakehead C. marulius in southern Florida. The fourth section (Management/Control) is comprised of four papers that address harvest, age and growth, and development of a stock–recruitment model to inform management decisions regarding control and mitigation for Northern Snakehead populations in the greater Chesapeake Bay area. The fifth section (Perspectives) includes a paper on the history of snakehead introductions in Japan and a thought‐provoking social commentary on the human dimensions of Northern Snakehead management. Abstracts in the final section provide brief summaries of a diversity of snakehead studies, including aspects of distribution, ecology, behavior, control and monitoring efforts, public outreach, and pathology. The summary of the panel discussion is an engaging dialogue about the challenges of snakehead management in the context of conflicts regarding snakeheads as injurious versus their value as game and food species. Most of this book is focused on the Northern Snakehead. Much has been done to document snakehead distributions and certain aspects of snakehead biology, such as diets, age, and growth. Less research has been devoted to understanding the ecological impacts of snakeheads to native aquatic communities and ecosystems. This book would have benefited from a chapter summarizing the current systematics and diversity of the Channidae to inform fisheries biologists about the morphological characteristics of the family, approximate numbers of genera and species, and taxonomic instability. Exemplifying the latter, recent molecular and morphological evidence indicates uncertainty regarding identification of the feral snakehead population in Florida (Adamson and Britz 2019). Those authors suggest that this population may have originated from western Thailand, a possibility that could have implications for understanding historical pathways of snakehead introductions into the USA. In comparison with many published AFS symposia, this volume is relatively narrow in scope and lacks cohesive integration. It will primarily be of interest to those fisheries professionals engaged in the study of snakeheads as well as other nonnative species for which there are contrasting social values regarding their management: whether to monitor and attempt control or eradication efforts or to maintain populations for harvest as game or food species. The book should serve to identify information gaps and guide future research.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2002

Final report: Initial ecosystem response of salt marshes to ditch plugging and pool creation: Experiments at Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge (Maine)

This study evaluates the response of three salt marshes, associated with the Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge (Maine), to the practice of ditch plugging. Drainage ditches, originally dug to drain the marsh for mosquito control or to facilitate salt hay farming, are plugged with marsh peat in an effort to impound water upstream of the plug, raise water table levels in the marsh, and increase surface water habitat. At two study sites, Moody Marsh and Granite Point Road Marsh, ditch plugs were installed in spring 2000. Monitoring of hydrology, vegetation, nekton and bird utilization, and marsh development processes was conducted in 1999, before ditch plugging, and then in 2000 and 2001 (all parameters except nekton), after ditch plugging. Each study site had a control marsh that was monitored simultaneously with the plugged marsh, and thus, we employed a BACI study design (before, after, control, impact). A third site, Marshall Point Road Marsh, was plugged in 1998. Monitoring of the plugged and control sites was conducted in 1999 and 2000, with limited monitoring in 2001, thus there was no ?before? plug monitoring. With ditch plugging, water table levels increased toward the marsh surface and the areal extent of standing water increased. Responding to a wetter substrate, a vegetation change from high marsh species (e.g., Spartina patens) to those more tolerant of flooded conditions (e.g., Spartina alterniflora) was noted at two of the three ditch plugged sites. Initial response of the nekton community (fishes and decapod crustaceans) was evaluated by monitoring utilization of salt marsh pools using a 1m2 enclosure trap. In general, nekton species richness, density, and community structure remained unchanged following ditch plugging at the Moody and Granite Point sites. At Marshall Point, species richness and density (number of individuals per m2) were significantly greater in the experimental plugged marsh than the control marsh (<2% of the control marsh was open water habitat vs. 11% of the plugged marsh). The response of birds, categorized as waterfowl & waterbirds, shorebirds & wading birds, gulls & terns, and miscellaneous (raptors, passerines, other), was variable. Following ditch plugging, bird species richness increased at the Granite Point site (1999 pre-plug = 15.4, 2000 post-plug = 26.2, 2001 post-plug = 38.7). Because of a low sample size at Moody Marsh, reliable statements on species richness cannot be made. Density of birds (no. of birds per ha) remained unchanged with ditch plugging at Granite Point Marsh, although there was a strong, but not statistically significant, trend toward increased density. This study only reports on initial responses of marsh functions to ditch plugging. Monitoring should continue at these sites, and perhaps at additional sites, for the next decade or so. A monitoring plan is recommended. Long-term monitoring will include evaluation of salt marsh development processes using SET (surface elevation table) methodology. There is concern, although not confirmed, that as ditch-plugged marshes become wetter and marsh grass production declines their ability to keep pace with sea level rise could be jeopardized. It is suggested that ditch plugging should be considered an experimental marsh management technique. Additional monitoring on the physical and habitat responses of ditch-plugged marshes is required, along with assessments of other techniques aimed at restoring open water habitat to the marsh surface.

Book↗

USGS2004

Development of a long-term sampling network to monitor restoration success in the southwest coastal Everglades: Vegetation, hydrology, and sediments

Introduction and History Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, crossed the southern Florida peninsula on the morning of August 24, 1992. Following the storm, the National Park Service conducted an environmental damage assessment to gauge the storm's impacts on the natural resources of south Florida Park Service holdings. Although hurricanes have impacted Park Service lands such as the Everglades in the past, no systematic, permanent sampling scheme has been established to monitor long-term recovery (or lack thereof) following disturbance. In October 1992, vegetation monitoring plots were established in heavily damaged areas of mangrove forest on the southwest coast of the Everlgades, along the Lostmans and Broad Rivers. As the permanent plot network was being established, funding was awarded for the South Florida Global Climate Change project (SOFL-GCC). This led to the establishment of a network of hydrological monitoring stations. Finally, sediment elevation tables (SETs) were installed at many locations. SETs provide the means to measure very small changes (2 mm) in the sediment surface elevation accurately over time. We also set up marker horizons to measure accretion of sediment at each site. Sampling sites were located along three transects extending from upstream freshwater wetlands to downstream saltwater wetlands along the Shark, Lostmans and Chatham Rivers in Everglades National Park. While we were developing our sampling network for basic scientific research needs, concern mounted over the health of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem and in particular over the influence of decreased freshwater flows. Ecosystem restoration planning was begun, resulting in the multi-agency, $8 billion Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). Our co-located sampling networks allow us to track the interaction of hydrology, sediment, and vegetation over time, and will provide the opportunity to monitor the progress of the Everglades restoration and to gauge its success. Our earlier research questions have been modified over time to place a major emphasis on CERP needs, while still recognizing the importance of other processes, including disturbance and sea-level rise. Our research addresses processes relevant to the following restoration and related questions: * How will increasing freshwater flow affect wetland primary production? * Will increasing freshwater inflow alter nutrient availability? * Does recovery following disturbance in mangroves depend on freshwater inflow? * Will the position of vegetation ecotones change in response to upstream water management? * What will be the influence of global climate change, such as sea-level rise, on the Everglades restoration? * Will processes of wetlands soil formation be altered by sea-level rise and changed freshwater inflow?

Florida↗

USGS2018

Rating stability, and frequency and magnitude of shifts, for streamgages in Virginia through water year 2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, has quantified several measures of rating stability and the frequency and magnitude of changes to ratings through time for 174 real-time continuous streamgages active in Virginia as of September 30, 2013. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted through all available flow measurements for all the streamgages in Virginia’s real-time network as of September 30, 2013, with at least 20 flow measurements with positive flow values. For each measurement with a positive flow value, residuals from the GAM curve were calculated. Time series of these residuals were used to identify major changes to the control (the stream feature or features which control the relation between stage and flow); the measurements in the periods of equilibrium between major changes were assigned to rating families. Of the 127 rating families that were identified as being distinct at sites, documented explanations were found for 67 of them. The most common reasons for the control to change enough to warrant a new rating family are moving the streamgage (28 times), floods (26 times), and construction activities (13 times). Provisional flow data from any streamgage that has recently experienced a major flood, regardless of historical stability, are more uncertain than usual until post-flood evidence emerges that the rating is stable, or if the rating has changed, until it is known to be well defined. A direct comparison between provisional flow data (those data originally displayed on the web in near-real time) and flow data approved for publication following subsequent flow measurements and review could not be made because provisional flow data have not been archived. As a substitute, alternative flow (AltFlow) tables were constructed for periods with complete records of shifts and ratings. Alternate flows consist of $Q$ same , the flow value from the shifted rating table used to compute the daily flow value at the time of the most recent flow measurement that corresponds to the gage height of each day’s daily flow value, and $Q$ prev , the flow value from the shifted rating table in effect at the time of the previous flow measurement that corresponds to the gage height of each day’s daily flow value. Several metrics that summarize AltFlow tables were computed and evaluated; particular importance was given to how well the metrics agreed with the descriptive stability class developed from interviews with hydrographers. Of these stability metrics, at least four were determined to be meaningful and to represent different aspects of control stability that might be relevant to water managers: total root mean square error between log-transformed $Q$ prev and $Q$ same , percentage of days when the difference between $Q$ prev and $Q$ same is greater than (>) $Q$ same , the sum of absolute AltFlow error divided by total flow, and percentage of days with zero difference between $Q$ prev and $Q$ same . Three other meaningful metrics of control stability or provisional flow-data quality were computed: R 2 (coefficient of determination) of GAMs from the flow measurements, percentage of total estimated days, and percentage of estimated days in the winter. Correlations among metrics varied, indicating they responded to different aspects of control stability. Relations among the various stability metrics and quantitative basin and site characteristics were weak. Although quantitative relations between stability metrics and basin and site characteristics were all weak, some common patterns still emerged. Controls and ratings on large streams [>500-square mile (mi 2 ) drainage area] and at high elevations (>1,000 feet) were more likely to be stable than controls and ratings on small streams (less than (<) 100-mi 2 drainage area) and at low elevations (<500 feet). There were exceptions to both generalizations, and streamgages that were intermediate in both characteristics varied widely in stability. Typical timing of record computation changed during water years 1991–2013. From 1991 through 2001, the median number of days between the start date of the shift and the date it was created fluctuated between about 240 and about 300 days and decreased by about 4 months from 2001 to 2002. Only in 2012 and 2013 did one-half of the shifts have a delay of about 60 days between start date and final modification.

Virginia↗

USGS2012

The potential effects of sodium bicarbonate, a major constituent from coalbed natural gas production, on aquatic life

The production water from coalbed natural gas (CBNG) extraction contains many constituents. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has established aquatic life criteria for some of these constituents, and it is therefore possible to evaluate their risk to aquatic life. However, of the major ions associated with produced waters, chloride is the only one with an established aquatic life criterion (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1988). The focus of this research was NaHCO 3 , a compound that is a major constituent of coalbed natural gas produced waters in the Tongue and Powder River Basins. This project included laboratory experiments, field in situ experiments, a field mixing zone study, and a fishery presence/absence assessment. Though this investigation focuses on the Tongue and Powder River Basins, the information is applicable to other watersheds where sodium bicarbonate is a principle component of product water either from CBNG or from traditional or unconventional oil and gas development. These data can also be used to separate effects of saline discharges from those potentially posed by other constituents. Finally, this research effort and the additional collaboration with USGS Water Resources and Mapping, Bureau of Land Management, US Environmental Protection Agency, State of Montana, State of Wyoming, Montana State University, University of Wyoming, and others as part of a Powder River Aquatic Task Group, can be used as a model for successful approaches to studying landscapes with energy development. The laboratory acute toxicity experiments were completed with a suite of organisms, including 7 species of fish, 5 species of invertebrates, and 1 amphibian species. Experiments performed on these multiple species resulted in LC50s that ranged from 1,120 to greater than (>) 8,000 milligrams sodium bicarbonate per liter (mg NaHCO 3 /L) (also defined as 769 to >8,000 milligrams bicarbonate per liter (mg HCO 3 -/L) or total alkalinity expressed as 608 to >4,181 milligrams calcium carbonate per liter (mg CaCO 3 /L)) that varied across species and lifestage within a species. The age at which fish were exposed to NaHCO 3 significantly affected the severity of toxic responses for some organisms. The chronic toxicity of NaHCO 3 was defined in experiments that lasted from 7—60 days post-hatch. For these experiments, sublethal effects such as growth and reproduction, in addition to significant reductions in survival were included in the final determination of effects. Chronic toxicity was observed at concentrations that ranged from 450 to 800mg NaHCO 3 /L (also defined as 430 to 657 mg HCO 3 -/L or total alkalinity expressed as 354 to 539 mg CaCO 3 /L) and the specific concentration depended on the sensitivity of the four species of invertebrates and fish exposed. Sublethal investigations during chronic studies revealed percent decrease in the activity of sodium-potassium adenosine triphosphatase (Na/K ATPase, an enzyme involved in ionoregulation) and the age of the fish at the onset of the decrease may affect the ability of fathead minnow to survive exposures to NaHCO 3 . A database of toxicity evaluations of NaHCO 3 on aquatic life has been constructed. Using these data, sample acute and chronic criteria of 459 and 381 mg NaHCO 3 /L, respectively, can be calculated for the protection of aquatic life. The final derivation and implementation of such criteria is, of course, left to the discretion of the concerned management agencies. A combination of in situ experiments, static-renewal experiments performed simultaneously with in situ experiments, and static renewal experiments performed with site water in the laboratory, demonstrated that untreated coalbed natural gas (CBNG) product water from the Tongue and Powder River Basins reduces survival of fathead minnow and pallid sturgeon. More precisely, the survival of early-lifestage fathead minnow, especially those less than 6-days post hatch (dph), likely is reduced significantly in the field when concentrations of NaHCO 3 rise above 1,500 mg/L. However, age was not a factor for pallid sturgeon and they were sensitive to product water regardless of age. Treatment with the Higgins Loop™ technology and dilution of untreated water increased survival in the laboratory. Both of these situations reduced ammonia in addition to the concentrations of NaHCO 3 . These experiments addressed the acute toxicity of effluent waters being added to the main stem rivers, but did not address issues related to the volumes of water that may be added to the watershed. Mixing zones of the three outfalls studied ranged from approximately 800—1,200 m below the confluence and the areas within these mixing zones with acutely lethal concentrations of NaHCO 3 (as defined by the presence of concentrated dye) are limited. The areas with concentrations of NaHCO 3 more than the concentrations likely to cause significant mortality, and more than the calculated sample water-quality criteria in the Tongue and Powder River Basins appear to be limited to tributaries and parts of mixing zones with considerable additions of untreated effluent.

Montana;Wyoming↗

USGS2005

Development of property-transfer models for estimating the hydraulic properties of deep sediments at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

Because characterizing the unsaturated hydraulic properties of sediments over large areas or depths is costly and time consuming, development of models that predict these properties from more easily measured bulk-physical properties is desirable. At the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, the unsaturated zone is composed of thick basalt flow sequences interbedded with thinner sedimentary layers. Determining the unsaturated hydraulic properties of sedimentary layers is one step in understanding water flow and solute transport processes through this complex unsaturated system. Multiple linear regression was used to construct simple property-transfer models for estimating the water-retention curve and saturated hydraulic conductivity of deep sediments at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The regression models were developed from 109 core sample subsets with laboratory measurements of hydraulic and bulk-physical properties. The core samples were collected at depths of 9 to 175 meters at two facilities within the southwestern portion of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory-the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, and the Vadose Zone Research Park southwest of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center. Four regression models were developed using bulk-physical property measurements (bulk density, particle density, and particle size) as the potential explanatory variables. Three representations of the particle-size distribution were compared: (1) textural-class percentages (gravel, sand, silt, and clay), (2) geometric statistics (mean and standard deviation), and (3) graphical statistics (median and uniformity coefficient). The four response variables, estimated from linear combinations of the bulk-physical properties, included saturated hydraulic conductivity and three parameters that define the water-retention curve. For each core sample,values of each water-retention parameter were estimated from the appropriate regression equation and used to calculate an estimated water-retention curve. The degree to which the estimated curve approximated the measured curve was quantified using a goodness-of-fit indicator, the root-mean-square error. Comparison of the root-mean-square-error distributions for each alternative particle-size model showed that the estimated water-retention curves were insensitive to the way the particle-size distribution was represented. Bulk density, the median particle diameter, and the uniformity coefficient were chosen as input parameters for the final models. The property-transfer models developed in this study allow easy determination of hydraulic properties without need for their direct measurement. Additionally, the models provide the basis for development of theoretical models that rely on physical relationships between the pore-size distribution and the bulk-physical properties of the media. With this adaptation, the property-transfer models should have greater application throughout the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory and other geographic locations.

Idaho↗

USGS2006

Final integrated trip report: site visits to Area 50, Andersen Air Force Base, Guam National Wildlife Refuge, War in the Pacific National Historical Park, Guam, Rota and Saipan, CNMI, 2004-2005

Limestone forests are the most diverse natural plant communities of Guam. Like other natural vegetation types, these forests have a long history of anthropogenic disturbances, being altered and shaped by humans for more than 4,000 years. Although this occupation represents a relatively long human influence in comparison to other Pacific islands, animals associated with humans, such as commensal rodents, arrived in these islands beginning only 1,000 years ago, and larger mammals, such as pigs (Sus scrofa), may not have arrived until European contact. Limestone forests, which also occur on several other Mariana Islands, developed in the presence of frequent tropical storms and are therefore well adapted to this type of natural disturbance regime. However, recent human activities including large scale clearing and conversion combined with the presence of high levels of alien herbivores and seed predators, and the loss of ecological services provided by the former native avifauna may be causing the decline of Guam's forests. Limestone forests on northern Guam, much like those of other Mariana Islands, were heavily cleared for the construction of military installations during World War II. The accidental introduction of the Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis; BTS) around this same period subsequently accelerated the disappearance of Guam's native avifauna and other endemic terrestrial vertebrates, and with them, seed dispersal, pollination, and the predatory regulation of herbivorous insects. Guam and the Mariana Islands contained a high proportion (32 pecent) of endemic bird species, with 4 forms endemic to Guam alone: the now extinct Guam Flycatcher (Myiagra freycineti), and Guam Bridled White-eye (Zosterops conspicillatpicillata), one of three island endemic subspecies from the Marianas; Guam rail (Rallus owstonii); and Guam Kingfisher (Todiramphus cinnamominus cinnamominus), an island endemic subspecies of the regionally endemic Micronesian Kingfisher. Guam once supported the Mariana Gallinule (Gallinula chloropus guami), the Mariana Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos oustaleti), Mariana Fruit-Dove (Ptilinopus roseicapilla), White-throated Ground Dove (Gallicolumba xanthonura xanthonura), Mariana Crow (Corvus kubaryi), and the Nightingale Reed-warbler (Acrocephalus luscinia), all endemic to the Mariana Islands. Other regionally endemic endangered species include the Micronesian Megapode (Megapodius laperouse), and the Mariana Swiftlet (Aerodramus bartschi), now reduced to a small population on Guam. Likewise, the flora of Guam is unique, with 21percent of its native vascular plants endemic to the Mariana Islands. In limestone forests of Northern Guam, a number of tall forest tree species such as joga, Elaeocarpus joga (Elaeocarpaceae); pengua or Macaranga thompsonii (Euphorbiaceae); ifit or Intsia bijuga (Fabaceae); seeded breadfruit or Artocarpus marianensis (Moraceae); and umumu or Pisonia grandis (Nyctaginaceae) may be in decline as a result of herbivory by mammals. All show reduced regeneration and age distributions highly skewed towards older individuals. These species provided important habitat for some of Guam's endangered forest birds that remain in captivity such as the Mariana Crow, Guam Kingfisher, and Guam Rail. The recent high frequency of intense tropical storms and herbivory caused by large populations of feral pigs and Philippine sambar deer (Cervus mariannus), as well as invasive alien vines that may suppress tree regeneration, could be permanently altering the structure of regenerating forests and composition of important canopy species on secondary limestone substrates that were cleared and compacted during airfield construction from 1944 through the 1970s. Guam National Wildlife Refuge (GNWR) was established at Ritidian Point, after it was determined to be excess property by the U.S. Navy. Most of the refuge, about 9,087 hectares, is an 'overlay refuge' on lands administered by the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy. Although the military mission comes first on these lands, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service assists in protecting native species and habitats. The recovery of limestone forest on Guam for forest bird habitat may require intensive management, including reduction of feral herbivores, propagation, out-planting, weed control, and periodic suppression of herbivorous insects. Research to support these techniques may be best accomplished in small areas where potential limiting factors can easily be experimentally manipulated. Area 50, a 24 ha enclosure, contains a relictual patch of relatively undisturbed limestone forest surrounded by tarmac allowing easy access and management opportunities to control alien mammals and snakes. These species have been periodically managed in the past, but recent typhoons have damaged snake-proofing on the enclosure fence. A new concrete barrier is planned to provide more permanent control opportunities within this enclosed area or another similar area, thereby allowing experimental research for various management regimes. Eradication and control of alien vertebrate and plant pests will provide habitat where native communities can be restored in a small, intensively managed area. The stated aim of this project is to "affect ecosystem restoration through the removal and exclusion of introduced species and the reestablishment and propagation of native species, with focus on the reintroduction of native forest bird species." This will be achieved by constructing a multispecies barrier surrounding the area, coordinated eradication of selected alien species within the area, and possible reintroduction of Mariana Crow, Guam Kingfisher, and Guam Rail. This barrier also allows experimental research questions to be addressed within the small enclosure around Area 50 that may be applied to manage and restore the larger areas of limestone forest on northern Guam and also similar forests on other islands of the Marianas.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2007

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2006

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2006 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of- the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). After considerable delays due to programming issues, a computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was development and tested in 2005 and 2006. Simulations using observations of collared females with COY were randomly sampled to generate datasets of observations of random females with COY. These datasets were then run though the simulations program to test the accuracy of the rules. Data are currently being summarized. This project has been completed and a manuscript was submitted to the Journal of Wildlife Management. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established human-caused mortality quotas. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris (1984). A Wildlife Monographs was published in 2006. Additionally, the study team, in cooperation with several quantitative experts, reassessed how population size is indexed and how sustainable mortality rates are established. A draft report was presented to the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee in spring 2005. It was published as part of the USFWS Delisting Rule (Federal Register Vol. 70, No. 221, Nov. 17, 2005, 69853–69884) and subjected to public comment. This workshop document can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm. During the summer of 2006, a second workshop was held to address public comment and professional peer review. The result of this workshop was a supplement to the 2005 workshop document. This supplement can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm under the link Revised Methods to Estimate Population Size and Sustainable Mortality Limits. Results of those estimates are provided in Appendix A. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine was published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770. Results of the mercury studies were also published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493–501. Copies can be found on the IGBST website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. Based upon this work, we submitted a proposal to analyze all historic tissue samples from grizzly bears in the ecosystem. That proposal was funded and samples have been sent to a lab for isotopic analysis. We hope to have those results in early 2008. Results of DNA hair snaring work conducted on Yellowstone Lake were submitted and published in the Journal Ursus (Haroldson et al. 2005). Results of this study conducted from 1997–2000 showed a decline in fish use by grizzly bears when compared to earlier work conducted by Reinhart (1990) in 1985–1987. As a consequence, the IGBST submitted a proposal to the National Park Service and received 3 years funding to repeat that work. This project began in 2007. There are 2 graduate students and several field technicians working on the program. We completed the final field season in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). We continue to use GPS technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of the 2006 field season are reported here. We plan to complete the final report in late 2007. We continued to monitor the health of whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in cooperation with the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. A summary of the 2006 monitoring is also presented (Appendix B). The IGBST uses counts of winter-killed ungulates to index spring carcass abundance for grizzly bears. Likewise, we use wier counts and stream surveys to index cutthroat trout abundance. We ask Dr. Steve Cherry, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University-Bozeman, to review the protocols and make recommendations for improving them. That review and recommendations are presented in Appendix C. Finally, the state of Wyoming, following recommendations from the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee and the IGBST, launched the Bear Wise Community Effort. The focus is to minimize human/bear conflicts, minimize human-caused bear mortalities associated with conflicts, and safeguard the human community. Results of these efforts are detailed in Appendix D. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Assessing mosquito populations to limit the spread of avian disease and inform the conservation of Hawaiian forest birds

The introduced mosquito-borne avian malaria, Plasmodium relictum , along with its mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus , are key limiting factors for endemic Hawaiian forest birds and are, in part, responsible for past extinctions and continued population declines of extant species. In the last 10 years steep declines in forest bird populations have been documented on Kaua`i and Maui. Presently two endemic species on Kaua`i, `Akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and `Akeke`e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ) and two endemic species on Maui, Kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) and `Ākohekohe, ( Palmeria dolei ) are facing extinction. These declines have been attributed to avian malaria transmission exacerbated by climate change. While little can be done to reduce the effects of climate change on vector abundance and transmission, recent innovations in landscape-level mosquito suppression and eradication may provide new tools to control or eliminate vectors from forest bird habitat. The current management focus is on the development and implementation of a Wolbachia -based Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) to reduce vector abundance. IIT involves using naturally occurring strains of Wolbachia , an endosymbiotic bacterium of C. quinquefasciatus and other arthropods, to facilitate reproductive incompatibility and infertility through cross matings. Through sustained releases of male mosquitoes infected with incompatible Wolbachia , wild mosquito populations can be suppressed. To meet regulatory approval for large-scale releases and achieve successful deployment and suppression, key ecological parameters (population density, dispersal, and survivorship) need to be assessed. Mark-release-recapture (MRR) techniques are commonly used to estimate these parameters outside of the Hawaiian Islands. Mark-release-recapture entails the capture of a portion of the population which is marked by a harmless method and then released back into the wild. The results of a subsequent or multiple recapture event(s) provide the proportion of marked individuals to unmarked individuals that can be mathematically analyzed to estimate populations size, survival, and dispersal. In this study, a MRR trial with wild-captured and laboratory-reared C. quinquefasciatus was conducted in a native forest on the Island of Hawai`i. The results provide some of the first estimates for (1) population abundance, (2) survivorship, and (3) movement of C. quinquefasciatus in forest bird habitat to support regulatory approvals and to advance and improve IIT mosquito control efforts in the State of Hawaii.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500 species of birds using the region for at least some part of their annual cycle. In addition, long-term monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult because of the need for monitoring data to both (1) evaluate management and restoration outcomes, and (2) provide reliable information about the status and trends of bird populations over time. To address these challenges, the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network developed a problem statement: “How can a cost-effective monitoring strategy for the Gulf Coast bird community and ecosystem be developed that evaluates ongoing conservation activities and chronic and acute threats; maximizes learning; and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats and evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?” A structured decision-making framework was then used to articulate and quantify stakeholder values related to the problem statement. One use of the stakeholder values was to develop a regional, strategic plan for bird monitoring, which is presented elsewhere. A formal and complete decision support tool for conservation investments in monitoring and research guided by the stakeholder values is presented in this report. The technical aspects of the stakeholder value model and a portfolio analysis that could be used to guide decision making when allocating resources for monitoring activities is described. Whereas the decision analysis presented here could be useful to any decision maker faced with difficult choices about resource allocation, it is designed for decision makers who request monitoring study proposals and then determine which combination of proposals to fund. The portfolio decision support tool is designed to help funding agencies and organizations identify resource allocation strategies to maximize stated objectives. To begin the decision analysis, an objectives hierarchy and quantitative performance metrics from the values of the Gulf of Mexico bird conservation community were created by a panel of regional stakeholders. Each fundamental objective and sub-objective in the hierarchy is composed of several performance metrics. To test the decision support tool, the authors evaluated a combination of monitoring study proposals written for the region and simulated proposals. Each proposal was scored against the performance metrics and used multi-attribute utility theory to combine the multiple objectives into a measure of total monitoring benefit. The total monitoring benefit and costs of each proposal were then used in a constrained optimization routine to identify optimal monitoring portfolios, that is, a combination of activities that maximizes monitoring benefits while meeting cost and other constraints of interest to stakeholders. A graphical solution based on the concept of Pareto efficiency, which is useful in situations when cost constraints and exact budgets are not known, is also provided. Finally, an evaluation of the sensitivity of the decision-making framework to the weights assigned to objectives by stakeholders is included. This decision support tool allows decision makers to identify an optimal suite of monitoring proposals with a transparent portfolio analysis that includes user-defined constraints (such as costs).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗