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834 records · Page 23Linked to original sources

Assessing legacy nitrogen in groundwater using numerical models of the Long Island aquifer system, New York

Nitrogen transported along groundwater flow paths in coastal aquifers can contribute substantially to nitrogen loading into surface water receptors, particularly in hydrologic systems dominated by groundwater discharge. Nitrogen entrained in the aquifer is a function of land use and associated nitrogen sources at the time of groundwater recharge, which may differ considerably from present-day sources. Legacy nitrogen can result in substantial discrepancies between observed present-day nitrogen loading to surface water receptors and loading estimated from present-day sources. Additionally, legacy nitrogen can continue to discharge into surface waters after nitrogen mitigation actions have been undertaken. Here, we use a numerical modeling framework to compare three methods of estimating time-varying historical nitrogen loads to four water bodies (receptors) on eastern Long Island, New York. The methods span a range of data requirements and process complexity, from instantaneous receptor loads calculated from steady-state groundwater contributing areas, to transient loads estimated by explicitly simulating legacy groundwater nitrogen transport over a century with large changes in nitrogen sources and hydrologic conditions. The effects of legacy nitrogen on estimated receptor loads varied temporally and spatially within the study area. Depending on antecedent nitrogen inputs and hydrologic conditions, historical annual nitrogen loads estimated from transient simulations accounting for legacy nitrogen can be quite similar (<10% difference) or substantially different (±100%) from those estimated from simpler instantaneous methods. Continued input of present-day nitrogen sources using methods that account for legacy nitrogen results in asymptotic increases in receptor nitrogen loads over time, indicating that simulated present-day receptor nitrogen loads are not in equilibrium with present-day inputs. For these receptors in disequilibrium, models simulating transient groundwater nitrogen transport could be used to account for legacy nitrogen lag times to help resource managers evaluate the potential effectiveness of proposed nitrogen mitigation actions.

EarthArXiv

Efficient physics‐informed ground‐motion simulations with reduced‐order models: CyberShake implications and high‐resolution site terms for southern San Andreas fault earthquakes

Recent advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) leverage physics‐based ground‐motion simulations to estimate seismic hazard, such as the CyberShake project. However, computational costs quickly escalate when performing PSHA for numerous faults or sites and can become prohibitively expensive. To reduce computational demands, CyberShake uses reciprocity and interpolates physics‐informed corrections from simulations conducted at fewer locations, but the accuracy of these interpolations remains poorly quantified. To quantify the interpolation accuracy, we derive high‐resolution, frequency‐dependent site terms for southern California and compare them with interpolated site terms using the CyberShake approach. We accomplish this by performing a set of earthquake point‐source simulations distributed along the nonplanar fault geometry for the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) extending from Bombay Beach to Lake Hughes. Using SeisSol, we simulate three minutes of viscoelastic seismic wave propagation for these sources and store the horizontal‐component Green’s functions for 480,000 sites. We then use a scientific machine learning approach based on interpolated proper orthogonal decomposition to construct an accurate reduced‐order model of the Green’s functions to efficiently predict effective amplitude spectra (EAS) for finite‐source rupture models of SSAF earthquakes. Using minimum curvature interpolation with tension, as used in CyberShake, we compare the interpolated site terms against our high‐resolution site terms. We identify local discrepancies with EAS differing by up to a factor of approximately three. Furthermore, we identify locations where unexpectedly high or low ground motions are missed when using the interpolated dataset for these earthquakes. We estimate that our approach may be used within CyberShake to reduce the time‐to‐solution by a factor of 336 for the entire earthquake rupture forecast. Our analysis of physics‐based site terms provides more insight into the seismic hazard due to SSAF ruptures and guides future developments by combining high‐performance computing and reduced‐order modeling techniques for PSHA.

California

Modeling legacy nitrogen transport under instantaneous, steady-state, and transient groundwater flow conditions

In hydrologic settings where groundwater discharge contributes substantially to surface waters, legacy nitrogen in groundwater can confound surface water nitrogen loads estimated exclusively from current terrestrial sources. Additionally, legacy nitrogen in groundwater can contribute to lagged responses to nitrogen management efforts. Some methods of estimating groundwater contributions to surface water nitrogen loads account for legacy nitrogen, while others do not. The resulting differences are rarely quantified. We used a numerical modeling framework to compare three methods of estimating time-varying annual groundwater nitrogen loads to surface water receptors on eastern Long Island, New York. The instantaneous load method used steady-state contributing areas and includes no temporal groundwater lag. The second method used numerical simulations of nitrogen loads under steady-state flow, which captures groundwater transport lags but omits the annual variability in transient hydrologic stresses. The third method numerically simulated both transient groundwater flow and nitrogen transport to explicitly capture the effects of legacy nitrogen in groundwater. Depending on antecedent nitrogen and hydrologic conditions, historical nitrogen loads estimated from the numerical simulations were sometimes similar (<10% difference) and other times substantially different (±100%) from the instantaneous load estimates. Additionally, simulated future surface water nitrogen loads responded asymptotically over several decades following reductions in terrestrial nitrogen sources, further highlighting the effect of groundwater transport lag times. The comparison of the three methods, quantification of historical interannual variability, and prediction of lagged responses to nitrogen source reductions provide important context for decision makers using estimated groundwater nitrogen loads to help evaluate nitrogen management efficacy.

New York

Do Graviquakes exist?

The “Graviquake” model, proposed in 2015 as an alternative to the elastic dislocation model, posits that normal faults are passive features dominated by coseismic gravitational collapse into a dilated crustal wedge, and that normal faulting is fundamentally distinct from strike‐slip and reverse faulting. Developed using finite‐element modeling before the 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence, the model was revamped based on interpreted Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data from these events and used as evidence for a gravitational collapse episode. However, this interpretation relies on miscalculated elevation changes and is not corroborated by independent geophysical and seismological observations. Our analysis exposes fundamental flaws in the Graviquake model. By assuming that faults are passive players, it underrepresents the dynamic role of strain accumulation and release in rocks adjacent to faults. The hypothesized rapid expulsion of overpressurized fluids appears inconsistent with observed diffusion rates and lacks supporting seismological evidence. Part of the uplifted–subsided volume imbalance is likely an artifact arising from data processing, and in part is a transient effect due to the delayed response of the lower crust. Moment tensor analyses detect no isotropic components indicative of gravitational collapse, and observed ground motion and stress‐drop levels remain fully consistent with elastic dislocation theory. In addition, finite‐element modeling of normal faulting replicates observed surface deformation without invoking a collapsing wedge. The Graviquake model proposes a representation of normal‐faulting mechanics that differs significantly from established models and observations. Gravity does play a role in normal faulting, but the elastic dislocation theory remains the definitive framework of fault mechanics. Reinterpreting the 2016 earthquakes as a cascade of gravitational episodes, based on incorrect data processing and modeling, fails to substantiate the Graviquake hypothesis. Persistence in advocating this model could mislead seismic hazard assessment and undermine our understanding of normal faulting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Hydrology and water and sediment quality at James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge near Kahuku, Island of Oahu, Hawaii

The James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge occupies two lowland marsh and pond complexes on the northern coastal plain of Oahu: the mostly natural ponds and wetlands of the Punamano Unit and the constructed ponds of the Kii Unit. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages the Refuge primarily to protect and enhance habitat for four endangered species of Hawaiian waterbirds. Kii Unit is fed by artesian wells and rainfall, whereas Punamano Unit is fed naturally by rainfall, runoff, and ground-water seepage. Streams drain from the uplands into lowland ditches that pass through Kii Unit on their way to the ocean. A high-capacity pump transfers water from the inner ditch terminus at Kii to the ocean outlet channel. Stormwaters also exit the inner ditch system over flood-relief swales near the outlet pump and through a culvert with a one-way valve. A hydrologic investigation was done from November 1996 through February 1998 to identify and quantify principal inflows and outflows of water to and from the Refuge, identify hydraulic factors affecting flooding, document ground-water/surface-water interactions, determine the adequacy of the current freshwater supply, and determine water and sediment quality. These goals were accomplished by installing and operating a network of stream-gaging stations, meteorology stations, and shallow ground-water piezometers, by computing water budgets for the two Refuge units, and by sampling and analyzing water and pond-bottom sediments for major ions, trace metals, and organic compounds. Streamflow during the study was dominated by winter stormflows, followed by a gradual recession of flow into summer 1997, as water that had been stored in alluvial fans drained to lowland ditches. Outflow at the ditch terminus in 1997 was 125 million gallons greater than measured inflow to the coastal plain, mainly reflecting gains from ground water along the ditches between outlying gages and the ditch terminus. Of the measured 1997 outflow, 98 percent was through the Kii outlet pump, with the outlet culvert valve only opening for brief periods during storms. Large volumes of stormflow overflowed the flood-relief swales unmeasured. The largest storm of the study, in November 1996, was estimated to have a flood frequency of about 3 to 4 years. Streamflow exceeded culvert capacity and overtopped Kamehameha Highway at Kalaeokahipa Stream and Hospital ditch. Slight overbank flooding in Kii ditch resulted strictly from high discharge. Minor overbank flooding farther out on the coastal plain probably was caused mainly by the small hydraulic gradients available to convey stormflows along the lowland ditches. Stormwaters flooded Kii ponds and flowed back upstream along Punamano ditch into Punamano marsh, introducing suspended sediment and possibly other contaminants to the Refuge. Two smaller storms in January 1997 resulted in smaller flows and no overbank flooding. The Kii outlet pump ran continuously for 7 days during the November 1996 storm and for 1 to 2 days during the January 1997 storms. During all three storms, the outlet culvert valve opened and the inner ditches overtopped the flood-relief swales, allowing free outflow of water from the inner ditch. Backwater effects hindered drainage during the January 1997 storms at Hospital ditch at Kamehameha Highway, and at Punamano ditch at Nudist Camp Road (where the backflow into Punamano marsh in November 1996 constituted an extreme backwater effect). A probable marine backwater effect was imposed at the ocean outlet ditch during the November 1996 storm through a combination of high spring tides and wave setup from large surf. Whether this backwater effect propagated upstream in the ditches to affect inland sites could not be determined conclusively. A sand plug may have built up in the ocean outlet channel before the November 1996 storm, but if so, it probably washed out prior to, or early in the storm, and was not present at the time of peak stage at inland sites. A season-long buildup of the sand plug in late 1997 was inferred from rising water levels in the outlet ditch. Seawater flows up the outlet channel or over the sand berm and into the outer ditch system on most high tides, and particularly during spring high tides. Ponds and ditches of the Refuge and surrounding lowlands have mud- and clay-lined bottoms that form an effective confining unit and inhibit interaction with an underlying shallow limestone aquifer. At Kii Unit, pond levels are higher than adjacent ditch levels and underlying ground-water levels, establishing lateral and downward head gradients that could foster seepage losses from the ponds. Regional ground-water discharge from the Koolau aquifer to the coastal-plain sediments is mostly diffuse, but is concentrated where ridges of Koolau Basalt plunge beneath coastal-plain sediments near Punamano Unit and at the head of Hospital ditch. Kii ditch gains brackish ground water downstream of Kamehameha Highway. Wastewater disposal from the sewage treatment plant adjoining Kii Unit poses little or no threat to Refuge habitat. Disposal is at six injection wells located 0.45 mi away at Kahuku, and the wells inject into confined limestone aquifers that do not extend to Kii Unit. The natural freshwater supply to Punamano Unit is adequate for maintaining the wildlife habitat, judging from stable pond levels and low salinities there. A monthly water budget for Punamano showed an apparent annual deficit in measurable flows in 1997, requiring unmeasured ground-water gains equalling 51 inches of water. The freshwater supply to Kii Unit is inadequate according to Refuge managers, because there is not enough water to manipulate levels adequately in the ponds during most of the year, and particularly during the driest months. This is confirmed by monthly deficits in the water budget for the Kii ponds during summer months. However, the Kii budget showed an annual surplus in measurable flows for 1997 equalling 24 inches of water. Unmeasured losses are required to explain the apparent annual surplus, such as discharge to the ditches through pond water-control structures and downward and/or lateral ground-water seepage. The apparent surplus at Kii is strictly hydrologic and is not a surplus in a management sense; it cannot be stored or used to supply the Refuge, but instead reflects losses from the system that render this amount of water unavailable for use. The budget year, 1997, was drier than normal (24 percent below long-term mean rainfall) and so the measured potential evaporation for 1997 was probably higher than the long-term mean. Few metals or organic compounds of potential concern were detected in pond and ditch waters and in pond-bottom sediments. Detected pesticides were at trace levels or just above minimum reporting limits. Exceptions that exceeded quality guidelines for freshwater sediment were copper and zinc in sediment from Kii ponds C and D, and copper in sediment from Punamano north pond. Therefore, urban and agricultural runoff probably have contributed little in the way of harmful metals or organic compounds to the Refuge, although the potential for such contribution remains from periodic flooding of the ponds by ditch stormflows. Salinity was low throughout most Refuge waters, qualifying as fresh to slightly brackish and suitable for the environmental needs of Refuge fauna. Higher salinities have been observed in ditches during past periods of sugarcane cultivation and saltwater aquaculture, however. Resumption of saltwater aquaculture could raise ditch salinities if saltwater effluents are disposed directly into the ditches, as they were in the past.

Hawaii

Advancing sustainable groundwater management with a hydro-economic system model: Investigations in the Harney Basin, Oregon

Groundwater resources frequently trend toward unsustainable levels because, absent effective institutions, individual water users generally act independently without considering the impacts on other users. Hydro-economic models (HEMs) of human-natural systems can play a positive role toward successful groundwater management by yielding valuable knowledge and insight. The current study explores how an HEM that captures essential physical and economic characteristics of a system can shed light on the system's processes and dynamics to benefit stakeholders, managers, and also researchers. These propositions are illustrated using the Harney Basin, Oregon, which has seen large groundwater declines in the past 20 years. The HEM shows that: (a) although current groundwater pumping rates will gradually raise costs and reduce well yields, irrigators gain the highest aggregate economic return by continuing current pumping; (b) lowland areas of the basin are hydrologically connected, which limits the efficacy of remedies focused on regulations only in some portions of the basin; (c) community expectations regarding the efficacy of several proposed solutions are overly optimistic; and (d) the study's scenarios identify interventions that would stabilize the groundwater system and prevent additional adverse impacts on residential and livestock wells and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. These interventions would require limiting groundwater pumping by nearly half and reducing annual profits by $7.5–$9.0M. The HEM also demonstrated its value to researchers: its insights shifted attention toward questions about Oregon's existing groundwater institutions and their inability to adaptively manage the transition from abundant groundwater to scarce groundwater in a timely manner.

Oregon

A regional model comparison between MODPATH and MT3D of groundwater travel time distributions

Groundwater quality changes in wells and streams lag behind changes to land use due to groundwater travel times. Two contaminant transport methods were compared to assess differences in their simulated travel time distributions (TTDs) to streams and wells in the Wisconsin Central Sands. MODPATH simulates advective groundwater flow with particle tracking, while MT3D simulates age-mass using a finite difference solution without dispersion to allow for direct comparison of the two methods. MODPATH appropriately simulates groundwater TTDs from the water table to surface discharge but is subject to inaccuracies at weak-sink well cells due to the flow-model grid discretization and imprecise location of well discharge within well cells. MT3D better represents weak-sink well cells since it removes mass in proportion to the prescribed pumping rate, although travel time within well cells is neglected. Conversely, MT3D's treatment of surface water boundary cells is not as accurate as MODPATH because mass should be removed from the water table rather than the full cell volume. MT3D simulations of TTDs can also be confounded by the instantaneous vertical distribution of mass introduced throughout recharge cells instead of at the water table, which initiates mass along deeper flow paths. We evaluated 9 MODPATH and 13 MT3D implementations, generating differences in median travel times of up to 18 years. Both methods have strengths and weaknesses, with MT3D better representing weak-sink well cell behavior and MODPATH better representing surficial recharge and discharge. The effect of these characteristics on simulated TTDs, along with ideas for ameliorating method weaknesses, is discussed.

Wisconsin

Hydrogeologic framework and conceptual model of the Red River alluvial aquifer east of Lake Texoma, southeastern Oklahoma, 1980–2022

The 1973 Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statutes §82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s groundwater basins to support a determination of the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin. At present (2025), the Oklahoma Water Resources Board has not established a maximum annual yield for the Red River alluvial aquifer east of Lake Texoma. To support the evaluation and determination of a maximum annual yield, a hydrogeologic framework and conceptual groundwater-flow model were developed to assess groundwater availability in the Red River alluvial aquifer east of Lake Texoma. The scope of this hydrologic investigation is the alluvium and terrace containing the Red River alluvial aquifer in Oklahoma between Lake Texoma, the Texas State line, and the Arkansas State line, an extent referred to in this report as “the eastern part of the Red River alluvial aquifer.” Parts of the alluvium and terrace extent in Arkansas and Texas are included in some analyses to address hydrologic influences from outside the aquifer’s boundaries in Oklahoma. The eastern part of the Red River alluvial aquifer in southeastern Oklahoma consists of approximately 401,280 acres of Quaternary alluvium and terrace deposits associated with the Red River and its major tributaries. Mean annual recharge to the aquifer for the 1980–2022 study period was estimated to be 8.62 inches per year, or 17.98 percent of the mean annual precipitation over the same period (47.94 inches). This mean annual recharge rate is equivalent to an inflow of approximately 288,250 acre-feet per year for the eastern part of the Red River alluvial aquifer. Recharge estimated using the Soil-Water-Balance code accounts for 98.7 percent of the conceptual-model inflows to the eastern part of the Red River alluvial aquifer. Saturated-zone evapotranspiration accounts for 11.9 percent and net streambed seepage accounts for 87.4 percent of the outflows in the conceptual model.

Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas

Geologic models underpinning the 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Hosston and Travis Peak Formations of the onshore Gulf Coast region, U.S.A.

The Early Cretaceous (Berriasian–Hauterivian) Hosston Formation in Louisiana and eastward is time correlative to the Travis Peak Formation of Texas and southern Arkansas. The formation is a first-order clastic sequence with a regional carbonate transgressive surface as an upper contact. The Hosston and Travis Peak formations contain conventional natural gas and oil accumulations that have been produced for nearly a century. These mature reservoirs contain terrigenous fluvial-deltaic, shore-zone, and paralic deposits across the productive trend; organic-lean mudstone and siltstone lithologies are found outboard of the Lower Cretaceous shelf margin. Producing reservoirs exhibit normal pressure gradients from 0.43 to 0.55 psi/ft (9.7 to 12.4 kpa/m), depths from 4000 to over 20,000 ft (1220 to 6100 m), and temperatures from 150 to 385°F (65 to 196°C). Wells are primarily vertical completions. The number of new field wildcats has been declining since the late 1990s. This paper presents comprehensive geologic models, which include lithofacies maps, structure and isopach maps, burial history models, regional seismic interpretations, and events charts that underpin the recently completed U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable hydrocarbons within the Hosston and Travis Peak formations. This study also provides geographic and stratigraphic distributions of Hosston–Travis Peak reservoir properties, including geopressure, reservoir temperature, porosity, permeability, API gravity, and gas-oil ratios. Results indicate estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean resources of 28 million barrels of oil and 35.8 trillion cubic ft of gas in conventional and continuous accumulations within the Lower Cretaceous Hosston and Travis Peak formations of the onshore U.S. Gulf Coast region. Quantitative assessment results are detailed in U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2025–3021 and associated Data Release.

GCAGS Journal

Potential impacts of groundwater pumping on stream temperature are greatest in streams with substantial cold groundwater inflows

Groundwater pumping-induced reductions in streamflow (known as ‘streamflow depletion’) have been documented worldwide, but potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature are not well understood. Here, we use two types of models to identify potential impacts of pumping on stream temperature across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to determine which aspects of a stream's annual thermograph (thermal signatures) can be used to monitor and manage streamflow depletion impacts on stream temperature. We used long-term streamflow and stream temperature data from 30 streamgages across CONUS and surrogate models of streamflow depletion to analyse potential stream temperature impacts at each site. We compared two different stream temperature modelling approaches: (i) a process-based energy balance model and (ii) statistical regression models based on air temperature and stream discharge. We calculated a suite of thermal signatures under depleted and non-depleted conditions for each stream and found that maximum annual 7-day temperature and annual temperature range are potentially the most sensitive to streamflow depletion, with potential changes of at least 2°C at > 70% of the sites when using the process-based model. We also found that the regression-based models predicted much less sensitivity of stream temperature to streamflow depletion than the process-based model. This work provides an initial evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature. We demonstrate that stream temperature may be most sensitive to pumping in streams with a high proportion of flow sourced from relatively cold groundwater inputs, and that regression-based stream temperature models may underpredict stream temperature changes caused by streamflow depletion.

conterminous United States

Suitability of ground-motion models for seismic hazard assessment in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

We perform linear mixed-effects analyses with a ground-motion dataset to evaluate how well ground-motion models (GMMs) fit active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab earthquakes in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Most of the GMMs reproduce the spatial variation in peak ground motions with earthquake magnitude and rupture distance but predict ground motions 0.3–1.0 natural log units (35%–270%) greater than observations. Two GMMs developed for Puerto Rico that are based on ground-motion records from mostly magnitude 4–5 earthquakes do not perform as well. We attribute the period-dependent overprediction in observed ground motions to differences between the observed site response and the linear site response in the GMMs. Consequently, we developed region-specific GMMs by adjusting the period-dependent linear site response coefficients and period-dependent constant coefficients to remove most of the bias between predicted ground motions and observations. For the analysis, we compile ground-motion records and process waveforms to build a dataset with 10,127 records at 72 stations from 849 magnitude 4.0–6.4 earthquakes between 1 January 2006 and 31 March 2024. The earthquakes include active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab events. We evaluate the GMMs using the time-averaged shear wave speed in the top 30 m ( ), which we compile from site surveys and proxy values computed from horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. Site terms exhibit strong consistency across GMMs and crustal and subduction earthquakes, indicating that the linear mixed-effects analysis successfully isolates the effects of local site response. The event terms show little spatial correlation and more substantial variability than in other regions, which we attribute to uncertainties in the earthquake magnitudes. This analysis guides the selection of the GMMs for the 2025 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

The 3D National Topography Model Call for Action—Part 2: The Next Generation 3D Elevation Program

The three-dimensional (3D) National Topography Model initiative to integrate elevation and hydrography data includes the next generation of hydrography data from the 3D Hydrography Program and the next generation of elevation data from the 3D Elevation Program (3DEP). The first-ever collection of light detection and ranging (lidar) data for the nation (IfSAR for Alaska) provides a critical baseline reference, and the addition of multiple repeat elevation mapping projects as part of the next generation of 3DEP would substantially expand analysis capabilities. As the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is closing in on our goal of complete coverage with 3DEP data available or in progress for 98.3 percent of the Nation at the end of fiscal year 2024, the USGS is already transitioning to the next generation of 3DEP. Based on the 3D Nation Study results and input from a broad range of stakeholders, the USGS National Geospatial Program has finalized a new design for 3DEP that provides increased lidar quality levels and refresh rates. The new program is designed with more flexibility to meet changing user needs and take advantage of improvements in mapping technologies. The program will aim to expand the level of interagency coordination for topobathymetric lidar acquisition for inland rivers. The next generation of 3DEP will also aim to emphasize research, including advancing program design, products, and services and engaging and leveraging the evolving 3D industry. Research goals also include becoming more flexible in meeting user needs and taking advantage of evolving remote-sensing technologies. The program also plans to move from focusing on producing standard products to producing a concept of a 3D Nation Ecosystem with a variety of inputs, products, and services.

Circular

Hydrogeologic investigation, framework, and conceptual flow model of the Antlers aquifer, southeastern Oklahoma, 1980–2022

The 1973 Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute §82–1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s groundwater basins to support a determination of the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin. Every 20 years, the Oklahoma Water Resources Board is required to update the hydrologic investigation on which the maximum annual yield determinations were based. The maximum annual yield allocated per acre of land is used to set the equal-proportionate share pumping rate. The maximum annual yield of 5,913,600 acre-feet per year and equal-proportionate-share of 2.1 acre-feet per acre per year currently (2025) in place for the Antlers aquifer were issued by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board on February 14, 1995. Because more than 20 years have elapsed since the 1995 final order for the Antlers aquifer was issued, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, completed an in-depth hydrologic study that included a hydrogeologic framework and conceptual groundwater-flow model for the 1980–2022 study period. The results of an analysis of land use, long-term climate patterns, streamflow and base-flow patterns, historical groundwater use, as well as groundwater-level fluctuations across the Antlers aquifer are described. In addition, groundwater quality was analyzed for total dissolved solids concentrations and major ions for the Antlers aquifer. An updated hydrogeologic framework was developed that included refining the aquifer boundary in Oklahoma, the creation of new potentiometric surface and saturated thickness of fresh groundwater maps, one multiple-well aquifer test, slug tests, and an analysis of lithologic logs across the aquifer. A conceptual groundwater flow model and water budget were developed by incorporating estimates of recharge from precipitation, saturated-zone evapotranspiration, streambed seepage, lateral groundwater flows, vertical leakage, and withdrawals from groundwater wells.

Oklahoma, Texas

Satellite time series analysis to quantify changing climax ciénegas using a state and transition model approach

Ciénegas are rare wetlands in arid landscapes of the North American Southwest, historically providing critical ecological and hydrological functions but increasingly threatened by changing climate and land use pressures. This study quantifies changes in ciénega condition and floodplain dynamics using a state-and-transition model (STM) informed by expert knowledge and remote sensing. Key factors include woody plant encroachment, water availability, and soil aggradation. We mapped 31 ciénegas with high-resolution imagery and analyzed Landsat data (1985–2023) to assess vegetation health and moisture using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII). Results show substantial interannual variability in phenology, water stress, and soil moisture, with regional drying and elevation strongly influencing ciénega resilience. We classified ciénegas into three functional states—healthy, desiccated, and dormant—and mapped their 2023 condition. Trend analyses indicate most ciénegas exhibit greening despite drought, though localized variability underscores the need for site-specific management. None are in a stable climax (reference) state; rather, they transition among states in response to external drivers. Increasing woody plant cover and surface drying, likely linked to declining regional water tables, favor deep-rooted species over wetland grasses—a pattern mirrored in adjacent control plots. Spatially explicit analysis revealed intra-ciénega variability often masked by aggregated data, highlighting the importance of high-resolution monitoring. Seasonal and long-term trends provide context for understanding ciénega dynamics, including degradation and restoration pathways. This study emphasizes the importance of groundwater conservation and demonstrates how remote sensing supports long-term monitoring. The STM framework offers a practical tool for adaptive management to sustain freshwater resources in arid environments.

Arizona, New Mexico

A joint Gaussian process model of geochemistry, geophysics, and temperature for groundwater TDS in the San Ardo Oil Field, California, USA

Decline in availability of fresh groundwater has expanded interest in brackish groundwater resources; however, the distribution of brackish groundwater is poorly understood. Water resources in sedimentary basins across the United States often overlie oil and gas development. Mapping of groundwater total dissolved solids (TDS) using data from oil well geophysical logs has become an important technique for identifying fresh and brackish groundwater. Existing geophysical log analysis methods use porosity and temperature to relate formation resistivity to TDS. Typically, natural geothermal gradients are used to estimate temperature at the location of collected resistivity. However, in thermally enhanced oil fields, steam is injected into the subsurface to mobilize high viscosity oil, creating variable temperature distributions. Furthermore, TDS derived from resistivity also depends on the fractions of dominant ions. Typically, chloride and bicarbonate fractions must be determined. It is also necessary to model TDS across many geologic units with heterogenous porosity distributions. Collectively, each quantity used to estimate TDS (resistivity, porosity, temperature, bicarbonate fraction) varies in space and time, and available data points are rarely collocated. Here, we present a new method of mapping groundwater TDS that continuously models each quantity together with a joint Gaussian process. This method enables mapping fresh and brackish water with practically available data. We apply this method to the San Ardo Oil Field in Monterey County, California, where steam injection occurs. In some areas of the aquifer system overlying the oil zone, the temperature is ∼75 °C, roughly twice the natural background value. Groundwater TDS is typically <1,500 mg/L in the aquifer and increases with depth to ∼9,000 mg/L in the oil-producing zone. A low-permeability clay layer delineates the fresh and brackish water, likely by inhibiting surface recharge from penetrating the deeper zones, allowing higher-TDS connate water to remain in place. Weaker lateral TDS trends may be controlled by recharge patterns associated with the Salinas River. Our model reveals with high certainty that groundwater has freshened in one localized part of the oil-producing zone and suggests with less certainty that more widespread freshening has also occurred. The lowering of TDS was possibly from decades of low-TDS steam injection and the associated fluid production and disposal operations.

California

Continuous hydrologic simulation of runoff for the Middle Fork and South Fork of the Beargrass Creek basin in Jefferson County, Kentucky

The Hydrological Simulation Pro-gram-FORTRAN (HSPF) was applied to an urban drainage basin in Jefferson County, Ky to integrate the large amounts of information being collected on water quantity and quality into an analytical framework that could be used as a management and planning tool. Hydrologic response units were developed using geographic data and a K-means analysis to characterize important hydrologic and physical factors in the basin. The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN Expert System (HSPEXP) was used to calibrate the model parameters for the Middle Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for 3 years (June 1, 1991, to May 31, 1994) of 5-minute streamflow and precipitation time series, and 3 years of hourly pan-evaporation time series. The calibrated model parameters were applied to the South Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for confirmation. The model confirmation results indicated that the model simulated the system within acceptable tolerances. The coefficient of determination and coefficient of model-fit efficiency between simulated and observed daily flows were 0.91 and 0.82, respectively, for model calibration and 0.88 and 0.77, respectively, for model confirmation. The model is most sensitive to estimates of the area of effective impervious land in the basin; the spatial distribution of rain-fall; and the lower-zone evapotranspiration, lower-zone nominal storage, and infiltration-capacity parameters during recession and low-flow periods. The error contribution from these sources varies with season and antecedent conditions.

Kentucky

Reply to, “Comment on ‘The 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake: Relic railroad offset reveals rupture,’ by Roger Bilham and Susan E. Hough”

We welcome this opportunity to respond to Pratt et al. (2024) (hereinafter P24). Bilham and Hough (2023) proposed a “first-cut” elastic deformation model for the 1886 earthquake, a quantitative source model constrained by identified coseismic constraints. A key observation was the measurement of a lateral offset of a railroad line south of Summerville, leading to a model with predominately dextral slip and minor convergence, from which we concluded that active faulting had raised the Penholoway Marine Terrace >6 m since ∼770 ka. P24 questioned these constraints and proposed an alternative rupture model with predominantly reverse slip. This alternative model is neither consistent with coseismic constraints nor with other geophysical data. In a revised model presented here, we recognize that uplift of the Penholoway Terrace is confined to the eastern edge of the terrace, which we conclude results from active folding and tectonic transpression centered on the dextral fault that offset the railroad in 1886.

South Carolina

Predicting hydrothermal reservoir depth from chemical geothermometers using a three-dimensional temperature model in the Great Basin, USA

Recent work in the Great Basin region of the western United States has made it possible to predict the depth of hydrothermal reservoirs (i.e., the depth at which heat is accumulated prior to ascent via hydrothermal upflow) identified through geochemistry and to contextualize the spatial patterns of these reservoir depths. Chemical geothermometers use the chemical and mineral constituents of hydrothermal fluids to predict the temperature at which fluids equilibrated with the host rocks at depth. Assuming that most of the Great Basin is dominated by conductive conditions until a vertically connected hydrothermal flow path is created (e.g., by faulting), geothermometers reflect the chemical and thermal conditions at the depth interval that the fluid has conductively equilibrated over a long period before a vertical conduit allows convective upflow. By pairing geothermometer temperature estimates with our recent three-dimensional temperature model of conductive heat flow in the Great Basin, we estimate the corresponding reservoir depths and construct a map of circulation depths. The predicted depths from geothermometers have spatial patterns across the Great Basin that relate to patterns seen in other geologic and geophysical data. Deeper springs generally occur disproportionately in areas with higher strain rates and in basins. We posit that current elevated strain rates reflect patterns of historic deformation where ongoing tectonic activity maintains permeable pathways to deeper reservoirs, some of which are estimated to exceed 6 km depth. Basins, as expected, contain a disproportionate number of these deep systems, because the underlying aquifers are closer to the surface in basins, thus requiring less water pressure to reach the surface than in mountain ranges. Most springs estimated to have their source in a deep reservoir occur at places known to host a hydrothermal system; these refined depth estimates of the source reservoir can help to better constrain the source depth for many known hydrothermal systems across the Great Basin.

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