SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate Services”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): Equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone

Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

Louisiana↗

USGS2007

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment— Climate and weather topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are significant management, conservation, and economic issues in the western U.S. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (hereinafter, “Needs”) for informing the actions proposed under the five topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed four Needs identified under the Climate and Weather topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs broadly focused on understanding the potential effects of climate change on vegetative resilience to inform restoration of sagebrush rangelands. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (hereinafter, “Next Steps”) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (that is, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 92 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Climate and Weather topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: studies of the complex set of climatic relationships that influence sagebrush rangeland restoration and seeding success; the identification of seed collection areas across the range of environmental variability inhabited by target restoration species; and develop predictive models to assess targeted restoration species’ responses to mid-century climatic conditions. The Need addressed poorly was the identification of native plant species, genotypes and ecotypes, and seed mixes that may be resilient to a changing climate. The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan, and can inform updates of other relevant science planning documents as needed.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Recent changes in annual area burned in interior Alaska: The impact of fire management

The Alaskan boreal forest is characterized by frequent extensive wildfires whose spatial extent has been mapped for the past 70 years. Simple predictions based on this record indicate that area burned will increase as a response to climate warming in Alaska. However, two additional factors have affected the area burned in this time record: the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) switched from cool and moist to warm and dry in the late 1970s and the Alaska Fire Service instituted a fire suppression policy in the late 1980s. In this paper a geographic information system (GIS) is used in combination with statistical analyses to reevaluate the changes in area burned through time in Alaska considering both the influence of the PDO and fire management. The authors found that the area burned has increased since the PDO switch and that fire management drastically decreased the area burned in highly suppressed zones. However, the temporal analysis of this study shows that the area burned is increasing more rapidly in suppressed zones than in the unsuppressed zone since the late 1980s. These results indicate that fire policies as well as regional climate patterns are important as large-scale controls on fires over time and across the Alaskan boreal forest.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Variable climate-growth relationships of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) among Sky Island mountain ranges in the Great Basin, Nevada, USA

The Great Basin is an arid province located in the interior western United States. The region encompasses millions of hectares and quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) forests comprise a minor portion of the total area. However, montane aspen forests play a disproportionately large role in providing ecosystem services in the region, including water retention, biodiversity, wildlife habitat, livestock forage, and recreational uses. With warming temperatures, increasing evaporative demand, and heightened precipitation variability, the future of aspen has become a critical concern. Using dendroecological approaches, we assessed growth patterns of 20 aspen stands across three geographically isolated “sky island” mountain ranges spanning portions of the north-central Great Basin. We anticipated that the growth of Great Basin aspen would be strongly influenced by regional climatic patterns and largely in synchrony. Results revealed a more complex growth dynamic that varied among mountain ranges and across environmental gradients. In particular, aspen climate-growth relationships in the slightly dryer Ruby Mountains were strongly and positively correlated (r > 0.5) with previous fall to winter moisture availability. The Jarbidge Mountains had a positive but modest relationship with previous fall to winter moisture availability (r > 0.3). Climate-growth response in the Santa Rosa Mountains, the wettest range, showed no significant response to moisture availability during any time period examined but had greater tree-ring growth with warmer May temperatures. Although tree-ring centennial (1910 – 2010) growth trends were positive for all three mountain ranges, only the Santa Rosa Mountains maintained a positive recent growth trend (1970 – 2010). Moreover, distinct temporal shifts in tree growth-climate relationships in each mountain range suggest potentially unique aspen population adaptations to climate variability. For instance, in two of the mountain ranges, there was a shift from positive/neutral to negative growth relationships with temperature starting around the 1963 – 1987 time period, while tree growth also began simultaneously responding more positively to moisture availability. These growth shifts and observed enhanced sensitivities to monthly and seasonal climate variables over time may reflect dynamic tree growth responses caused by ongoing global climate change, but that may be tempered by local or regional factors, such as the relative availability and timing of soil moisture provided by spring snowmelt. A better understanding of biogeographic variation and causality in aspen growth could provide multiple management pathways governed by resilience characteristics in the face of future anthropogenic and climatic threats.

Nevada↗

USGS2017

Topographic, edaphic, and vegetative controls on plant-available water

Soil moisture varies within landscapes in response to vegetative, physiographic, and climatic drivers, which makes quantifying soil moisture over time and space difficult. Nevertheless, understanding soil moisture dynamics for different ecosystems is critical, as the amount of water in a soil determines a myriad ecosystem services and processes such as net primary productivity, runoff, microbial decomposition, and soil fertility. We investigated the patterns and variability in in situ soil moisture measurements converted to plant-available water across time and space under different vegetative cover types and topographic positions at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA). From 0 – 228.6 cm soil depth, plant-available water was significantly higher under the hardwoods (12%), followed by the aspen (8%) and red pine (5%) cover types. Across the same soil depth, toeslopes were wetter (mean plant-available water = 10%) than ridges and backslopes (mean plant-available water was 8%), although these differences were not statistically significant ( p < 0.05). Using a mixed model of fixed and random effects, we found that cover type, soil texture, and time were related to plant-available water and that topography was not significantly related to plant-available water within this low-relief landscape. Additionally, during the three-year monitoring period, red pine and quaking aspen sites experienced plant-available water levels that may be considered limiting to plant growth and function. Given that increasing temperatures and more erratic precipitation patterns associated with climate change may result in decreased soil moisture in this region, these species may be sensitive and vulnerable to future shifts in climate.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2015

Managing the Mississippi River floodplain: Achieving ecological benefits requires more than hydrological connection to the river: Chapter

Floodplains are vital to the structure and function of river-floodplain ecosystems. Among the many ecological services provided by floodplains are nutrient cycling and seasonal habitats for fish, including spawning, nursery, foraging and wintering habitats. Connections between the river channel and floodplain habitats are essential to realize these ecological services, but spatial and temporal aspects of the connection and contemporary geomorphology must also be considered in restoration efforts. This chapter synthesizes available information to compare floodplain function and needed management strategies in two extensive reaches (upper impounded and lower free-flowing) of the Mississippi River, USA. The upper impounded reach is the 523-km reach from about Minneapolis, Minnesota to Clinton, Iowa. This reach has been impounded and channelized for navigation. Mean annual water-level fluctuation ranges from 1 to 2 m in the navigation pools in this reach. Floodplain environmental conditions that affect nitrogen cycling and fish production vary seasonally and longitudinally within and among navigation pools. Significant issues affecting ecological services include sedimentation, constrained water level fluctuations, island erosion and seasonal hypoxia. The lower free-flowing reach, the 1570-km reach from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to the Gulf of Mexico, has no dams and average annual fluctuations of 7 m throughout most of the reach. Despite the substantial flood pulse, floodplain inundation is often brief and may not occur annually. Significant issues affecting floodplain ecological function are the short duration and thermal asynchrony of the flood pulse, sedimentation and loss of connection between the river channel and permanent/semi-permanent floodplain water bodies due to channel incision. Needs and strategies for floodplain enhancement to increase ecological services, particularly nitrogen cycling and fish production, differ along the longitudinal gradient of the Mississippi River and provide informative contrasts to guide floodplain management. Prediction of the effects of climate change on this system will be complicated by the magnitude of the watershed that encompasses 41 % of the continental USA and multiple climatic regions.

Mississippi River floodplain↗

USGS2024

Combining terrestrial lidar with single line transects to investigate geomorphic change: A case study on the Upper Verde River, Arizona

The Upper Verde River in northern Arizona, USA is a vital resource for the wildlife and humans that rely on its waters. We characterize the riparian corridor topography using terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) data from 2021 to 2022. We also quantify geomorphic changes associated with human and climate-driven alterations in river flow and vegetation changes by combining the contemporary lidar surveys with legacy measurements from single line geomorphology transects measured by the United States Forest Service (USFS) in 2009. Seventeen plots along the Upper Verde River were surveyed with the TLS and the data were coregistered within individual plots with a Root Mean Square Error of <0.03 m among scan positions. Digital Elevation Models (DEM) were derived for each plot from the TLS data at 10 cm resolution and compared to the 2009 USFS cross-section data to quantify elevation changes. In areas with statistically significant change, we detected maximum changes in elevation due to erosion and deposition of −0.37 m and + 0.97 m, respectively. Topographic changes over the 13-year period were predominately aggradation and associated with sediment deposition, which we hypothesize might have resulted from altered river flow and vegetation encroachment. This study also demonstrates a quantitative and statistical methodology to fuse traditional single line cross-section data with contemporary lidar data to quantify geomorphic change. The novel approach demonstrated here is broadly applicable to natural resource managers for integrating and contextualizing legacy topographic data for understanding past, present, and future landscape and habitat changes.

Arizona↗

USGS2024

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty-five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard-mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine-scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2015

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicated by uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic process for evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilience and conserve ecosystem services. This is particularly true in coastal areas where human populations and landscape conversion are increasing, and where intensifying storms and sea-level rise pose unprecedented threats to coastal ecosystems. We applied collaborative decision analysis with a diverse team of stakeholders who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes across the San Francisco Bay estuary, California, USA, as a case study. Specifically, we followed a structured decision-making approach, and we using expert judgment developed alternative management strategies to increase the capacity and adaptability to manage tidal marsh resilience while considering uncertainties through 2050. Because sea-level rise projections are relatively confident to 2050, we focused on uncertainties regarding intensity and frequency of storms and funding. Elicitation methods allowed us to make predictions in the absence of fully compatible models and to assess short- and long-term trade-offs. Specifically we addressed two questions. (1) Can collaborative decision analysis lead to consensus among a diverse set of decision makers responsible for environmental stewardship and faced with uncertainties about climate change, funding, and stakeholder values? (2) What is an optimal strategy for the conservation of tidal marshes, and what strategy is robust to the aforementioned uncertainties? We found that when taking this approach, consensus was reached among the stakeholders about the best management strategies to maintain tidal marsh integrity. A Bayesian decision network revealed that a strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

California↗

USGS2023

A big data–model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species

Infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health and biodiversity. Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus ) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter/springs were preceded by drier summers/falls. Rigorous cross-validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally >0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host–pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data–model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease-induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision-making.

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New ↗

USGS2025

Blue carbon stocks along the Pacific Coast of North America are mainly driven by local rather than regional factors

Coastal wetlands, including seagrass meadows, emergent marshes, mangroves, and temperate tidal swamps, can efficiently sequester and store large quantities of sediment organic carbon (SOC). However, SOC stocks may vary by ecosystem type and along environmental or climate gradients at different scales. Quantifying such variability is needed to improve blue carbon accounting, conservation effectiveness, and restoration planning. We analyzed SOC stocks in 1,284 sediment cores along >6,500 km of the Pacific coast of North America that included large environmental gradients and multiple ecosystem types. Tidal wetlands with woody vegetation (mangroves and swamps) had the highest mean stocks to 1 m depth (357 and 355 Mg ha −1 , respectively), 45% higher than marshes (245 Mg ha −1 ), and more than 500% higher than seagrass (68 Mg ha −1 ). Unvegetated tideflats, though not often considered a blue carbon ecosystem, had noteworthy stocks (148 Mg ha −1 ). Stocks increased with tidal elevation and with fine (<63 μm) sediment content in several ecosystems. Stocks also varied by dominant plant species within individual ecosystem types. At larger scales, marsh stocks were lowest in the Sonoran Desert region of Mexico, and swamp stocks differed among climate zones; otherwise stocks showed little correlation with ecoregion or latitude. More variability in SOC occurred among ecosystem types, and at smaller spatial scales (such as individual estuaries), than across regional climate gradients. These patterns can inform coastal conservation and restoration priorities across scales where preserving stored carbon and enhancing sequestration helps avert greenhouse gas emissions and maintains other vital ecosystem services.

Pacific Coast of North America↗

USGS2018

Fire and tree death: Understanding and improving modeling of fire-induced tree mortality

Each year wildland fires kill and injure trees on millions of forested hectares globally, affecting plant and animal biodiversity, carbon storage, hydrologic processes, and ecosystem services. The underlying mechanisms of fire-caused tree mortality remain poorly understood, however, limiting the ability to accurately predict mortality and develop robust modeling applications, especially under novel future climates. Virtually all post-fire tree mortality prediction systems are based on the same underlying empirical model described in Ryan and Reinhardt (1988 Can. J. For. Res. 18 1291–7), which was developed from a limited number of species, stretching model assumptions beyond intended limits. We review the current understanding of the mechanisms of fire-induced tree mortality, provide recommended standardized terminology, describe model applications and limitations, and conclude with key knowledge gaps and future directions for research. We suggest a two-pronged approach to future research: (1) continued improvements and evaluations of empirical models to quantify uncertainty and incorporate new regions and species and (2) acceleration of basic, physiological research on the proximate and ultimate causes of fire-induced tree mortality to incorporate processes of tree death into models. Advances in both empirical and process fire-induced tree modeling will allow creation of hybrid models that could advance understanding of how fire injures and kills trees, while improving prediction accuracy of fire-driven feedbacks on ecosystems and landscapes, particularly under novel future conditions.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion: Chapter 6 in Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion comprises numerous intermountain valleys and low-elevation foothill prairies spread across the western half of Montana, on both sides of the Continental Divide (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997). The ecoregion, which covers approximately 64,658 km 2 (24,965 mi 2 ), includes the Flathead Valley and the valleys surrounding Helena, Missoula, Bozeman, Billings, Anaconda, Dillon, and Lewistown (fig. 1). These valleys are generally characterized by shortgrass prairie vegetation and are flanked by forested mountains (Woods and others, 1999); thus, the valleys’ biotas with regards to fish and insects are comparable. In many cases, the valleys are conduits for some of the largest rivers in the state, including Clark Fork and the Missouri, Jefferson, Madison, Flathead, Yellowstone, Gallatin, Smith, Big Hole, Bitterroot, and Blackfoot Rivers (fig. 2). The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion also includes the “Rocky Mountain front,” an area of prairies along the eastern slope of the northern Rocky Mountains. Principal land uses within the ecoregion include farming, grazing, and mining. The valleys serve as major transportation and utility corridors and also contain the majority of Montana’s human population. The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion extends into 17 mostly rural counties throughout western Montana. Only three of the counties—Carbon, Yellowstone, and Missoula—are part of a metropolitan statistical area with contiguous built-up areas tied to an employment center. Nearly two-thirds of Montana residents live in nonmetropolitan counties (Albrecht, 2008). Ten of the counties within the ecoregion had population growth rates greater than national averages (9–13 percent) between 1970 and 2000 (table 1). Ravalli and Gallatin Counties had the highest growth rates. Population growth was largely due to amenity-related inmigration and an economy dependent on tourism, health care, and services. Counties that had population declines, such as Deer Lodge, Silver Bow, and Meagher Counties, also had declines in agriculture and mining activity, and they had railroad closures as well. Climate varies from north to south and from the east side of the Continental Divide to the west side. However, all areas are semiarid with long cold winters and short growing seasons. In the western part of the ecoregion, Beaverhead, Bitterroot, Flathead, and Lolo National Forests provide the natural resources, particularly timber, that form the economic base for towns within nearby valleys. Mineral resources from mines in and around Anaconda, Deer Lodge, and Butte have long provided an economic base for these towns (fig. 3).

Idaho;Montana;Wyoming↗

USGS2016

A landscape-scale assessment of above- and belowground primary production in coastal wetlands: Implications for climate change-induced community shifts

Above- and belowground production in coastal wetlands are important contributors to carbon accumulation and ecosystem sustainability. As sea level rises, we can expect shifts to more salt-tolerant communities, which may alter these ecosystem functions and services. Although the direct influence of salinity on species-level primary production has been documented, we lack an understanding of the landscape-level response of coastal wetlands to increasing salinity. What are the indirect effects of sea-level rise, i.e., how does primary production vary across a landscape gradient of increasing salinity that incorporates changes in wetland type? This is the first study to measure both above- and belowground production in four wetland types that span an entire coastal gradient from fresh to saline wetlands. We hypothesized that increasing salinity would limit rates of primary production, and saline marshes would have lower rates of above- and belowground production than fresher marshes. However, along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast in Louisiana, USA, we found that aboveground production was highest in brackish marshes, compared with fresh, intermediate, and saline marshes, and belowground production was similar among all wetland types along the salinity gradient. Multiple regression analysis indicated that salinity was the only significant predictor of production, and its influence was dependent upon wetland type. We concluded that (1) salinity had a negative effect on production within wetland type, and this relationship was strongest in the fresh marsh (0–2 PSU) and (2) along the overall landscape gradient, production was maintained by mechanisms at the scale of wetland type, which were likely related to plant energetics. Regardless of wetland type, we found that belowground production was significantly greater than aboveground production. Additionally, inter-annual variation, associated with severe drought conditions, was observed exclusively for belowground production, which may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem health than aboveground production.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2013

Ecological thresholds as a basis for defining management triggers for National Park Service vital signs: case studies for dryland ecosystems

Threshold concepts are used in research and management of ecological systems to describe and interpret abrupt and persistent reorganization of ecosystem properties (Walker and Meyers, 2004; Groffman and others, 2006). Abrupt change, referred to as a threshold crossing, and the progression of reorganization can be triggered by one or more interactive disturbances such as land-use activities and climatic events (Paine and others, 1998). Threshold crossings occur when feedback mechanisms that typically absorb forces of change are replaced with those that promote development of alternative equilibria or states (Suding and others, 2004; Walker and Meyers, 2004; Briske and others, 2008). The alternative states that emerge from a threshold crossing vary and often exhibit reduced ecological integrity and value in terms of management goals relative to the original or reference system. Alternative stable states with some limited residual properties of the original system may develop along the progression after a crossing; an eventual outcome may be the complete loss of pre-threshold properties of the original ecosystem. Reverting to the more desirable reference state through ecological restoration becomes increasingly difficult and expensive along the progression gradient and may eventually become impossible. Ecological threshold concepts have been applied as a heuristic framework and to aid in the management of rangelands (Bestelmeyer, 2006; Briske and others, 2006, 2008), aquatic (Scheffer and others, 1993; Rapport and Whitford 1999), riparian (Stringham and others, 2001; Scott and others, 2005), and forested ecosystems (Allen and others, 2002; Digiovinazzo and others, 2010). These concepts are also topical in ecological restoration (Hobbs and Norton 1996; Whisenant 1999; Suding and others, 2004; King and Hobbs, 2006) and ecosystem sustainability (Herrick, 2000; Chapin and others, 1996; Davenport and others, 1998). Achieving conservation management goals requires the protection of resources within the range of desired conditions (Cook and others, 2010). The goal of conservation management for natural resources in the U.S. National Park System is to maintain native species and habitat unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations. Achieving this goal requires, in part, early detection of system change and timely implementation of remediation. The recent National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring program (NPS I&M) was established to provide early warning of declining ecosystem conditions relative to a desired native or reference system (Fancy and others, 2009). To be an effective tool for resource protection, monitoring must be designed to alert managers of impending thresholds so that preventive actions can be taken. This requires an understanding of the ecosystem attributes and processes associated with threshold-type behavior; how these attributes and processes become degraded; and how risks of degradation vary among ecosystems and in relation to environmental factors such as soil properties, climatic conditions, and exposure to stressors. In general, the utility of the threshold concept for long-term monitoring depends on the ability of scientists and managers to detect, predict, and prevent the occurrence of threshold crossings associated with persistent, undesirable shifts among ecosystem states (Briske and others, 2006). Because of the scientific challenges associated with understanding these factors, the application of threshold concepts to monitoring designs has been very limited to date (Groffman and others, 2006). As a case in point, the monitoring efforts across the 32 NPS I&M networks were largely designed with the knowledge that they would not be used to their full potential until the development of a systematic method for understanding threshold dynamics and methods for estimating key attributes of threshold crossings. This report describes and demonstrates a generalized approach that we implemented to formalize understanding and estimating of threshold dynamics for terrestrial dryland ecosystems in national parks of the Colorado Plateau. We provide a structured approach to identify and describe degradation processes associated with threshold behavior and to estimate indicator levels that characterize the point at which a threshold crossing has occurred or is imminent (tipping points) or points where investigative or preventive management action should be triggered (assessment points). We illustrate this method for several case studies in national parks included in the Northern and Southern Colorado Plateau NPS I&M networks, where historical livestock grazing, climatic change, and invasive species are key agents of change. The approaches developed in these case studies are intended to enhance the design, effectiveness, and management-relevance of monitoring efforts in support of conservation management in dryland systems. They specifically enhance National Park Service (NPS) capacity for protecting park resources on the Colorado Plateau but have applicability to monitoring and conservation management of dryland ecosystems worldwide.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2020

Post-fire aspen (Populus tremuloides) regeneration varies in response to winter precipitation across a regional climate gradient

Altered climate and changing fire regimes are synergistically impacting forest communities globally, resulting in deviations from historical norms and creation of novel successional dynamics. These changes are particularly important when considering the stability of a keystone species such as quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.), which contributes critical ecosystem services across its broad North American range. As a relatively drought intolerant species, projected changes of altered precipitation timing, amount, and type (e.g. snow or rain) may influence aspen response to fire, especially in moisture-limited and winter precipitation-dominated portions of its range. Aspen is generally considered an early-seral species that benefits from fire, but increases in fire activity across much of the western United States could affect the species in unpredictable ways. This study examined post-fire aspen stands across a regional climate gradient spanning from the north-central Great Basin to the northeastern portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (USA). We investigated the influence of seasonal precipitation and temperature variables, snowpack, and site conditions (e.g. browsing levels, topography) on density of post-fire aspen regeneration (i.e. all small trees ha −1 ) and recruitment (i.e. small trees ≥2 m tall ha −1 ) across 15 fires that occurred between 2000 and 2009. The range of post-fire regeneration (2500–71,600 small trees ha −1 ) and recruitment (0–32,500 small trees ≥2 m ha −1 ) densities varied widely across plots. Linear mixed effects models demonstrated that both response variables increased primarily with early winter (Oct-Dec) precipitation during the ‘fire-regen period’ (i.e., fire year and five years after fire) relative to the 30-year mean. The 30-year mean of early winter precipitation and fire-regen period snowpack were also positively related to recruitment densities. Both response variables decreased with higher shrub cover, highlighting the importance of considering shrub competition in post-fire environments. Regeneration and recruitment densities were negatively related to proportion browsed aspen leaders and animal pellet densities (no./m 2 ), respectively, indicating the influence of ungulate browsing even at the relatively low levels observed across sites. A post-hoc exploratory analysis suggests that deviation in early winter precipitation during the fire-regen period (relative to 30-year means) varied among sites along directional gradients, emphasizing the need to consider multiple spatiotemporal scales when investigating climate effects on post-fire successional dynamics. We discuss our findings in terms of dynamic management and conservation strategies in light of changing fire regimes and climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2015

Effects of proposed sediment borrow pits on nearshore wave climate and longshore sediment transport rate along Breton Island, Louisiana

As part of a plan to preserve bird habitat on Breton Island, the southernmost extent of the Chandeleur Islands and part of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge in Louisiana, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service plans to increase island elevation with sand supplied from offshore resources. Proposed sand extraction sites include areas offshore where the seafloor morphology suggests suitable quantities of sediment may be found. Two proposed locations east and south of the island, between 5.5–9 kilometers from the island in 3–6 meters of water, have been identified. Borrow pits are perturbations to shallow-water bathymetry and thus can affect the wave field in a variety of ways, including alterations in sediment transport and new erosional or accretional patterns along the beach. A scenario-based numerical modeling strategy was used to assess the effects of the proposed offshore borrow pits on the nearshore wave field. Effects were assessed over a range of wave conditions and were gaged by changes in significant wave height and wave direction inshore of the borrow sites, as well as by changes in the calculated longshore sediment transport rate. The change in magnitude of the calculated sediment transport rate with the addition of the two borrow pits was an order of magnitude less than the calculated baseline transport rate.

Louisiana↗