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Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Ecosphere

Monitoring goals and programs of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service

The United States Fish and Wildlife Service coordinates several surveys that collect information on the population status of migratory birds in North America. The North American Breeding Bird Survey is the primary source of population information on nongame birds during the breeding season, and waterfowl surveys are conducted during breeding and wintering seasons. The surveys are international in scope, based upon research into sampling methods for birds, and used in management of migratory birds. The Service also maintains the Bird Banding Laboratory in cooperation with the Canadan Wildlife Service, and supports demographic monitoring of bird populations.

Book chapter

The effects of management practices on grassland birds

Since the mid-1960s, populations of grassland birds have been declining more precipitously than any other group of birds in North America. These long-term declines highlight the need to better understand the habitat requirements of grassland birds and how management practices affect individual species and their habitats. Although resource managers have long recognized that every management approach contains inherent advantages and disadvantages, depending on the species in question, they are often faced with making critical management decisions armed with little or no information. The need for information on management and its effects on grassland birds was identified by the U.S. Prairie Pothole Joint Venture, a part of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan, in support of its objective to stabilize or increase populations of declining grassland- and wetland-associated wildlife species in the Prairie Pothole Region. In 1996, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center began a long-term, collaborative effort to review and synthesize literature on the effects of management practices on grassland bird species. Major funding for this effort was provided by the Prairie Pothole Joint Venture, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey; additional funding was provided by the U.S. Forest Service, The Nature Conservancy, and the Plains and Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative. This compendium on “The Effects of Management Practices on Grassland Birds” is a culmination of that work. More than 6,000 published and unpublished publications have been consulted and several thousand publications have been incorporated and synthesized in species accounts for 40 North American grassland bird species. The 40 species represent a taxonomically diverse group that includes grouse, shorebirds, owls, diurnal raptors, and many songbirds. The focus of this effort is on management of breeding habitat, with an emphasis on the Great Plains. The accounts provide land managers with a summary of information on the effects of specific management practices on grassland birds and help to identify the most critical research gaps in our understanding of grassland bird ecology, habitat needs, and responses to management practices. This compendium is organized into three primary sections: an introduction, species accounts, and a concluding chapter. The introduction provides an overview of grasslands, the processes under which grasslands formed, the influence of anthropogenic changes to grasslands, the effects of those changes on grassland bird populations, and the management tools available to land managers. The bulk of this compendium is the individual species accounts, covering 40 species of North American grassland birds arranged in taxonomic order. Each species account includes information on species range, suitable breeding habitat, area requirements and landscape associations, breeding-season phenology, species’ response to management, and management recommendations. Information on rates of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) in grassland bird nests is summarized in a chapter at the end of this report. The final chapter includes concluding remarks concerning habitat requirements and management effects on grassland birds.

Professional Paper

Some consequences of using counts of birds banded as indices to populations

In mist-net studies, it is often difficult to use capture-recapture methods to estimate number of birds present. Many investigators use number of birds captured as an index of population size. We investigate the consequences of using indices of bird abundance as surrogates for population size in hypothesis tests. Unless all of the birds present are captured, indices are biased estimates of local population size, and the amount of bias depends on the proportion of birds captured. We demonstrate the potential effects of bias on hypothesis tests based on indices. The bias generally causes type I error rates to be inflated. Investigators should either estimate the proportion of animals captured using capture-recapture methods or demonstrate that results of hypothesis tests based on indices are not consequences of bias in the indices.

Book chapter

Utilizing high-resolution genetic markers to track population-level exposure of migratory birds to renewable energy development

With new motivation to increase the proportion of energy demands met by zero-carbon sources, there is a greater focus on efforts to assess and mitigate the impacts of renewable energy development on sensitive ecosystems and wildlife, of which birds are of particular interest. One challenge for researchers, due in part to a lack of appropriate tools, has been estimating the effects from such development on individual breeding populations of migratory birds. To help address this, we utilize a newly developed, high-resolution genetic tagging method to rapidly identify the breeding population of origin of carcasses recovered from renewable energy facilities and combine them with maps of genetic variation across geographic space (called ‘genoscapes’) for five species of migratory birds known to be exposed to energy development, to assess the extent of population-level effects on migratory birds. We demonstrate that most avian remains collected were from the largest populations of a given species. In contrast, those remains from smaller, declining populations made up a smaller percentage of the total number of birds assayed. Results suggest that application of this genetic tagging method can successfully define population-level exposure to renewable energy development and may be a powerful tool to inform future siting and mitigation activities associated with renewable energy programs.

PLOS Sustainability and Transformation

Patch size and landscape effects on density and nesting success of grassland birds

Current management recommendations for grassland birds in North America emphasize providing large patches of grassland habitat within landscapes that have few forest or shrubland areas. These Bird Conservation Areas are being proposed under the assumption that large patches of habitat in treeless landscapes will maintain viable populations of grassland birds. This assumption requires that patch size and landscape features affect density and nesting success of grassland birds, and that these effects are consistent among years and regions and across focal species. However, these assumptions have not yet been validated for grassland birds, and the relative importance of local vegetation structure, patch size, and landscape composition on grassland bird populations is not well known. In addition, factors influencing grassland bird nesting success have been investigated mostly in small-scale and short-duration studies. To develop management guidelines for grassland birds, we tested the spatial and temporal repeatability of the influence of patch size and landscape composition on density and nesting success of 3 grassland passerines, after controlling for local-scale vegetation structure, climate, and—when analyzing nest success—bird density. We conducted our study during 4 years (1998–2001) in 44 study plots that were set up in 3 regions of the northern tallgrass prairie in Minnesota and North Dakota, USA. In these study plots we measured density and nesting success of clay-colored sparrows ( Spizella pallida ), Savannah sparrows ( Passerculus sandwichensis ), and bobolinks ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ). Statistical models indicated that density was influenced by patch size, landscape, region, and local vegetation structure more so than by local vegetation structure alone. Both magnitude and direction of the response of density to patch size varied among regions, years, and species. In contrast, the direction of landscape effects was consistent among regions, years, and between Savannah sparrows and bobolinks. In each species, this landscape effect was independent of patch size. Nesting success was not clearly influenced by patch size or landscape composition, and none of the factors that influenced avian density also influenced nesting success in any of the 3 species. General statements on “optimal habitat” for grassland birds should therefore be viewed cautiously. Instead, long-term studies in different regions as well as a deeper understanding of the local system are needed to determine which factors are most important for grassland birds in a particular area.

Journal of Wildlife Management

A hierarchical model for regional analysis of population change using Christmas Bird Count data, with application to the American Black Duck

Analysis of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data is complicated by the need to account for variation in effort on counts and to provide summaries over large geographic regions. We describe a hierarchical model for analysis of population change using CBC data that addresses these needs. The effect of effort is modeled parametrically, with parameter values varying among strata as identically distributed random effects. Year and site effects are modeled hierarchically, accommodating large regional variation in number of samples and precision of estimates. The resulting model is complex, but a Bayesian analysis can be conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We analyze CBC data for American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes), a species of considerable management interest that has historically been monitored using winter surveys. Over the interval 1966-2003, Black Duck populations showed distinct regional patterns of population change. The patterns shown by CBC data are similar to those shown by the Midwinter Waterfowl Inventory for the United States.

Condor

Current distribution and abundance of Kohala forest birds in Hawai‘i

The Kohala volcano is home to the most spatially isolated population of Hawaiian forest birds on Hawai‘i Island and contains one of the few native bird populations in the state that has not been monitored since the original Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (HFBS) in 1979. We surveyed 143 stations across 13 transects in Pu‘u ‘O ‘Umi Natural Area Reserve on Kohala from February through April 2017 and compared our results to data from the 1979 HFBS conducted at 80 stations across three transects in the same location as our study site. We detected 2806 individuals of 15 species and measured relative abundance, relative occurrence, and density for seven species. We observed changes in species densities ranging from −8.4% (Hawai‘i ‘Elepaio, Chasiempis sandwichensis ) to +714% (‘I‘iwi, Drepanis coccinea ). Equivalence testing showed meaningful increases in population densities for all but one species, the Hawai‘i ‘Elepaio. The increases in population densities on Kohala are in stark contrast to the widespread declines in population densities of native species elsewhere in Hawai‘i. Relative occurrence was greater in 2017 than in 1979 for all species except Hawai‘i ‘Elepaios and House Finches ( Haemorhous mexicanus ), and relative abundance increased for all species except Hawai‘i ‘Elepaios, House Finches, and Melodious Laughing Thrushes ( Garrulax canorus ). We also documented the range expansion of Japanese Bush Warblers ( Cettia diphone ) in Kohala. Our results indicate that this spatially isolated avian community remains biologically diverse, and most population densities are increasing in the study area. Our results provide a framework for future surveys and a baseline for understanding possible changes in population and community dynamics as birds respond to climate change and avian disease on Kohala volcano.

Hawai'i

The effects of management practices on grassland birds — An introduction to North American grasslands and the practices used to manage grasslands and grassland birds

The Great Plains of North America is defined as the land mass that encompasses the entire central portion of the North American continent that, at the time of European settlement, was an unbroken expanse of primarily herbaceous vegetation. The Great Plains extend from central Saskatchewan and Alberta to central Mexico and from Indiana to the Rocky Mountains. The expanses of herbaceous vegetation are often referred to as native prairie or native grasslands. Native grasslands share the characteristics of a general uniformity in vegetation structure, dominance by grasses and forbs, a near absence of trees and shrubs, annual precipitation ranging from 25 to 100 centimeters, extreme intra-annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and a flat to rolling topography over which fires can spread. To the west of the Great Plains lie the sagebrush communities of the Great Basin, which extend from British Columbia and Saskatchewan to northern Arizona and New Mexico and from the eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges to western South Dakota. Sagebrush communities share similar characteristics to native grasslands, but their location east of the Rocky Mountains creates a more moderating influence from prevailing westerly winds that affect timing of peak precipitation and growth form of dominant vegetation. Native grasslands and sagebrush communities harbor a diverse array of grassland, wetland, and woodland plant and animal communities that are uniquely adapted to the natural forces of the Great Plains and Great Basin, namely the interactive forces of climate, fire, and grazing. The arrival of European settlers to North America brought profound change to native grassland and sagebrush communities, including the establishment of permanent towns and cities, the proliferation of cropland-based agricultural systems, and the suppression of wildfires. The near extirpation of bison by the 1860s paved the way for dramatic changes in the dominant grazers and a shift in the disturbance patterns that historically influenced vegetation structure. The greatest threat to native grasslands and sagebrush communities in modern times is their loss due to conversion to rowcrop agriculture and to urbanization. Concomitant with habitat loss is a precipitous decline in populations of bird species that evolved with, and are uniquely adapted to, the native grassland and sagebrush habitats. Avian population trends are linked strongly to agricultural land use. Besides outright loss of suitable breeding habitat, agricultural practices affect birds through factors such as pesticide exposure, habitat fragmentation, shifts in predator community composition, and occurrence of brood parasites. Bird populations face other stressors, such as loss of habitat to and behavioral avoidance of urbanized areas, roads, and infrastructure associated with energy production. Despite the many anthropogenic changes to North American grassland and sagebrush communities, some bird species are adaptable and opportunistic in their habitat selection and now utilize one or more human-created habitats. Human-created habitats include pastures, hayfields, agricultural terraces, crop buffer strips, field borders, grassed waterways, fencerows, road rights-of-way, airports, reclaimed coal mines, and planted wildlife cover. Fields of seeded grasslands enrolled in Federal long-term set-aside programs, such as the Conservation Reserve Program in the United States and the Permanent Cover Program in Canada, provide important nesting habitat for grassland bird species. The array of habitats used by birds makes habitat and avian management a complex undertaking, and the scale (for example, local, regional, international) at which management actions can be implemented are such that a universal approach to managing grasslands for the conservation of the entire suite of bird species does not exist. Experienced land managers recognize that it is impossible to manage for all bird species simultaneously, and thus, prioritization is necessary towards those habitats or bird species that the manager or management agency ranks highest for a specific region or management unit. The primary tools available for management are burning, grazing, mowing, herbicide application, and idling, but before choosing a particular practice, a manager will want to consider issues of seasonality, intensity, and frequency. Despite the thousands of studies that are cited in this compendium, much remains unknown about the effects of management practices on bird species. The series of species accounts in this compendium review the current state of knowledge regarding management of grassland and sagebrush bird species and summarize information on the effects of management practices on individual species. The accounts do not give definitive statements on the effects of management practices for any particular species, primarily because there are very few replicated studies in which identical management practices have been applied in the same geographical area with consistent results, which are elements necessary to provide concrete recommendations for the management of a particular species in a particular area. Documentation of the effects of management treatments on individual species through statistically sound methods that incorporate multiple years and locations will further scientists’ and land managers’ knowledge far more than 1–2-year studies that are limited in scope as well as time, but studies of that scope and breadth are rare.

Professional Paper

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Half Moon Bay, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Half Moon Bay map area is located in northern California, on the Pacific coast of the San Francisco Peninsula about 40 kilometers south of the Golden Gate. The city of Half Moon Bay, which is situated on the east side of the Half Moon Bay embayment, is the nearest significant onshore cultural center in the map area, with a population of about 11,000. The Pillar Point Harbor at the north edge of Half Moon Bay offers a protected landing for boats and provides other marine infrastructure. The map area lies offshore of the Santa Cruz Mountains, part of the northwest-trending Coast Ranges that run roughly parallel to the San Andreas Fault Zone. The Santa Cruz Mountains lie between the San Andreas Fault Zone and the San Gregorio Fault system. The flat coastal area, which is the most recent of numerous marine terraces, was formed by wave erosion about 105 thousand years ago. The higher elevation of this same terrace west of the Half Moon Bay Airport is caused by uplift on the Seal Cove Fault, a splay of the San Gregorio Fault Zone. Although originally incised into the rising terrain horizontally, the ancient terrace surface has been gently folded into a northwest-plunging syncline by compression related to right-lateral strike-slip movement along the San Gregorio Fault Zone. The lowest elevation coincides with the deepest part of Half Moon Bay; the terrace surface rises both to the north and to the south. Uplift in this map area has resulted in relatively shallow water depths within California’s State Waters and, thus, little accommodation space for sediment accumulation. Sediment is observed in the shelter of Half Moon Bay and on the outer half of the California’s State Waters shelf. Sediment in the area is mobile, often forming dunes and sand waves. A westward bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone, southeast of the map area, coupled with right-lateral movement along the Seal Cove Fault, which comes ashore in Pillar Point Harbor, has resulted in the folding and uplifting of sedimentary rocks of the Purisima Formation in the offshore. Differential erosion of these folded and faulted layers of the Purisima Formation has exposed the parallel curved-rock ridges that are visible on the seafloor from the headland at Pillar Point. During the winter, strong North Pacific storms generate large, long-period waves that shoal and break over this bedrock reef at the world-famous surfing location known as Mavericks. The Offshore of Half Moon Bay map area lies within the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the “Oregonian province” or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, an eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from Oregon to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 365 km south of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off central California has experienced a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift away from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Seafloor habitats in the Offshore of Half Moon Bay map area, which lies within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat, range from significant rocky outcrops that support kelp-forest communities nearshore to rocky-reef communities in deep water. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of sea birds such as Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high wave-energy environments. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of rockfish and greenling.

California

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of San Gregorio, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California's State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of San Gregorio map area is located in northern California, on the Pacific coast of the San Francisco Peninsula about 50 kilometers south of the Golden Gate. The map area lies offshore of the Santa Cruz Mountains, part of the northwest-trending Coast Ranges that run roughly parallel to the San Andreas Fault Zone. The Santa Cruz Mountains lie between the San Andreas Fault Zone and the San Gregorio Fault system. The nearest significant onshore cultural centers in the map area are San Gregorio and Pescadero, both unincorporated communities with populations well under 1,000. Both communities are situated inland of state beaches that share their names. No harbor facilities are within the Offshore of San Gregorio map area. The hilly coastal area is virtually undeveloped grazing land for sheep and cattle. The coastal geomorphology is controlled by late Pleistocene and Holocene slip in the San Gregorio Fault system. A westward bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone, southeast of the map area, coupled with right-lateral movement along the San Gregorio Fault system have caused regional folding and uplift. The coastal area consists of high coastal bluffs and vertical sea cliffs. Coastal promontories in the northern and southern parts of the map area are the result of right-lateral motion on strands of the San Gregorio Fault system. In the south, headlands near Pescadero Point have been uplifted by motion along the west strand of the San Gregorio Fault (also called the Frijoles Fault), which separates rocks of the Pigeon Point Formation south of the fault from rocks of the Purisima Formation north of the fault. The regional uplift in this map area has caused relatively shallow water depths within California's State Waters and, thus, little accommodation space for sediment accumulation. Sediment is observed offshore in the central part of the map area, in the shelter of the headlands north of the east strand of the San Gregorio Fault (also called the Coastways Fault) around Miramontes Point (about 5 km north of the map area) and also on the outer half of the California's State Waters shelf in the south where depths exceed 40 m. Sediment in the outer shelf of California's State Waters is rippled, indicating some mobility. The Offshore of San Gregorio map area lies within the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the "Oregonian province" or the "northern California ecoregion." This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, an eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from Oregon to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 350 km south of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off of central California has experienced a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift away from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Seafloor habitats in the Offshore of San Gregorio map area, which lies within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat, range from significant rocky outcrops that support kelp-forest communities nearshore to rocky-reef communities in deep water. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports diverse populations of sea birds such as Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin's Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of "bull kelp," which is well adapted for high wave-energy environments. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of rockfish and greenling.

California

Use of seeded exotic grasslands by wintering birds

Despite widespread population declines of North American grassland birds, effects of anthropogenic disturbance on wintering habitat of this guild remain poorly understood. We compared avian abundance and habitat structure in fields planted to the exotic grass Old World bluestem ( Bothriochloa ischaemum ; OWB) to that in native mixed-grass prairie. During winters of 2007–2008 and 2008–2009, we conducted bird and vegetation surveys in six native grass and six OWB fields in Garfield, Grant, and Alfalfa counties, Oklahoma. We recorded 24 species of wintering birds in native fields and 14 species in OWB monocultures. While vegetation structure was similar between field types, abundance of short-eared owls ( Asio flammeus ), northern harriers ( Circus cyaneus ) and Smith’s longspurs ( Calcarius pictus ) was higher in OWB fields during at least one year. The use of OWB fields by multiple species occupying different trophic positions suggested that vegetation structure of OWB can meet habitat requirements of some wintering birds, but there is insufficient evidence to determine if it provides superior conditions to native grasses.

Oklahoma

Estimates of population change in selected species of tropical birds using mark-recapture data

The population biology of tropical birds is known for a only small sample of species; especially in the Neotropics. Robust estimates of parameters such as survival rate and finite rate of population change (A) are crucial for conservation purposes and useful for studies of avian life histories. We used methods developed by Pradel (1996, Biometrics 52:703-709) to estimate A for 10 species of tropical forest lowland birds using data from a long-term (> 20 yr) banding study in Panama. These species constitute a ecologically and phylogenetically diverse sample. We present these estimates and explore if they are consistent with what we know from selected studies of banded birds and from 5 yr of estimating nesting success (i.e., an important component of A). A major goal of these analyses is to assess if the mark-recapture methods generate reliable and reasonably precise estimates of population change than traditional methods that require more sampling effort.

Book chapter

An assessment of bird habitat quality using population growth rates

Survival and reproduction directly affect population growth rate (lambda) making lambda a fundamental parameter for assessing habitat quality. We used field data, literature review, and a computer simulation to predict annual productivity and lambda for several species of landbirds breeding in floodplain and upland forests in the Midwestern United States. We monitored 1735 nests of 27 species; 760 nests were in the uplands and 975 were in the floodplain. Each type of forest habitat (upland and floodplain) was a source habitat for some species. Despite a relatively low proportion of regional forest cover, the majority of species had stable or increasing populations in all or some habitats, including six species of conservation concern. In our search for a simple analog for lambda, we found that only adult apparent survival, juvenile survival, and annual productivity were correlated with lambda; daily nest survival and relative abundance estimated from point counts were not. Survival and annual productivity are among the most costly demographic parameters to measure and there does not seem to be a low-cost alternative. In addition, our literature search revealed that the demographic parameters needed to model annual productivity and lambda were unavailable for several species. More collective effort across North America is needed to fill the gaps in our knowledge of demographic parameters necessary to model both annual productivity and lambda. Managers can use habitat-specific predictions of annual productivity to compare habitat quality among species and habitats for purposes of evaluating management plans.

Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois