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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗
USGS1976

Rise of a variable-viscosity fluid in a steadily spreading wedge-shaped conduit with accreting walls

Relatively rigid plates making up the outer 50 to 100 km of the Earth are steadily separating from one another along narrow globe-circling zones of submarine volcanism, the oceanic spreading centers. Continuity requires that the viscous underlying material rise beneath spreading centers and accrete onto the steadily diverging plates. It is likely that during the rise the viscosity changes systematically and that the viscous tractions exerted on the plates contribute to the unique pattern of submarine mountains and earthquake faults observed at spreading centers. The process is modeled by viscous creep in a wedge-shaped conduit (with apex at the sea floor) in which the viscosity varies as r m where r is distance from the apex and m is a parameter. For these conditions, the governing differential equations take a simple form. The solution for the velocity is independent of r and of the sign of m . As viscous stresses vary as r m-1 , the pattern of stress on the conduit wall is sensitive to viscosity variation. For negative m , the viscous pressure along the base of the conduit is quite uniform; for positive m , it falls toward zero in the axial region as the conduit base widens. For small opening angles, viscous forces push the plates apart, and for large ones, they oppose plate separation. Though highly idealized, the solution provides a tool for investigating tectonic processes at spreading centers.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗
USGS2003

Agreement among observers classifying larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) habitat

Estimates of larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) abundance are used to rank Great Lakes tributaries for lampricide treatment. Observers subjectively stratify habitat into three categories: type I = preferred, type II = acceptable, type III = unacceptable. Agreement was evaluated among eight observers classifying habitats in small discrete plots in two Lake Superior tributaries, the Rock and Chocolay rivers, and among four observers classifying and measuring the amount of each habitat type along random transects in the Rock River. Agreement among the eight observers classifying habitat plots was high (Chocolay, k = 0.742 and Rock, k = 0.785). The amounts of types I, II, and III habitat estimated were statistically different among observers. However, the amount of variability found in the classification and measurement of habitat by observers had little effect on the ranking of 51 streams considered for lampricide treatment.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2007

Seismic detection and analysis of icequakes at Columbia Glacier, Alaska

Contributions to sea level rise from rapidly retreating marine-terminating glaciers are large and increasing. Strong increases in iceberg calving occur during retreat, which allows mass transfer to the ocean at a much higher rate than possible through surface melt alone. To study this process, we deployed an 11-sensor passive seismic network at Columbia Glacier, Alaska, during 2004–2005. We show that calving events generate narrow-band seismic signals, allowing frequency domain detections. Detection parameters were determined using direct observations of calving and validated using three statistical methods and hypocenter locations. The 1–3 Hz detections provide a good measure of the temporal distribution and size of calving events. Possible source mechanisms for the unique waveforms are discussed, and we analyze potential forcings for the observed seismicity.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2022

Microgravity change during the 2008-2018 Kı̄lauea summit eruption: Nearly a decade of subsurface mass accumulation

Results from nine microgravity campaigns from Kı̄lauea, Hawaiʻi, spanning most of the volcano's 2008–2018 summit eruption, indicate persistent mass accumulation at shallow levels. A weighted least squares approach is used to recover microgravity results from a network of benchmarks around Kı̄lauea's summit, eliminate instrumental drift, and restore suspected data tares. A total mass of 1.9 × 10 11 kg was determined from these microgravity campaigns to have accumulated below Kı̄lauea Caldera during 2009–2015 at an estimated depth of 1.3 km below sea level. Only a fraction of this mass is reflected in surface deformation, and this is consistent with previously reported discrepancies between subsurface mass accumulation and observed surface deformation. The discrepancy, amongst other independent evidence from gas emissions, seismicity, and continuous gravimetry, indicate densification of magma in the reservoirs below the volcano summit. This densification may have been driven by degassing through the summit vent. It is hypothesized that during the final years of the summit eruption, magma densification resulted in a buildup of pressure in the reservoirs that may have contributed to the lower East Rift Zone outbreak of 2018. The observed mass accumulation beneath Kı̄lauea could not have been detected through other techniques and illustrates the importance of microgravity measurements in volcano monitoring.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2016

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger “noise” has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth’s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5–2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, A SL (t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying A SL (t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Gravity model studies of Newberry Volcano, Oregon

Newberry Volcano, a large Quaternary volcano located about 60 km east of the axis of the High Cascades volcanoes in central Oregon, has a coincident positive residual gravity anomaly of about 12 mGals. Model calculations of the gravity anomaly field suggest that the volcano is underlain by an intrusive complex of mafic composition of about 20-km diameter and 2-km thickness, at depths above 4 km below sea level. However, uplifted basement in a northwest trending ridge may form part of the underlying excess mass, thus reducing the volume of the subvolcanic intrusive. A ring dike of mafic composition is inferred to intrude to near-surface levels along the caldera ring fractures, and low-density fill of the caldera floor probably has a thickness of 0.7–0.9 km. The gravity anomaly attributable to the volcano is reduced to the east across a north-northwest trending gravity anomaly gradient through Newberry caldera and suggests that normal, perhaps extensional, faulting has occurred subsequent to caldera formation and may have controlled the location of some late-stage basaltic and rhyolitic eruptions. Significant amounts of felsic intrusive material may exist above the mafic intrusive zone but cannot be resolved by the gravity data.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama barrier-island chain and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities

Barrier-island chains worldwide are undergoing substantial changes, and their futures remain uncertain. An historical analysis of a barrier-island chain in the north-central Gulf of Mexico shows that the Mississippi barriers are undergoing rapid systematic land loss and translocation associated with: (1) unequal lateral transfer of sand related to greater updrift erosion compared to downdrift deposition; (2) barrier narrowing resulting from simultaneous erosion of shores along the Gulf and Mississippi Sound; and (3) barrier segmentation related to storm breaching. Dauphin Island, Alabama, is also losing land for some of the same reasons as it gradually migrates landward. The principal causes of land loss are frequent intense storms, a relative rise in sea level, and a sediment-budget deficit. Considering the predicted trends for storms and sea level related to global warming, it is certain that the Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands will continue to lose land area at a rapid rate unless the trend of at least one causal factor reverses. Historical land-loss trends and engineering records show that progressive increases in land-loss rate correlate with nearly simultaneous deepening of channels dredged across the outer bars of the three tidal inlets maintained for deep-draft shipping. This correlation indicates that channel-maintenance activities along the MS-AL barriers have impacted the sediment budget by disrupting the alongshore sediment transport system and progressively reducing sand supply. Direct management of this causal factor can be accomplished by strategically placing dredged sediment where adjacent barrier-island shores will receive it for island nourishment and rebuilding.

Alabama, Mississippi↗
USGS2022

Underwater hearing in sea ducks with applications for reducing gillnet bycatch through acoustic deterrence

As diving foragers, sea ducks are vulnerable to underwater anthropogenic activity, including ships, underwater construction, seismic surveys and gillnet fisheries. Bycatch in gillnets is a contributing source of mortality for sea ducks, killing hundreds of thousands of individuals annually. We researched underwater hearing in sea duck species to increase knowledge of underwater avian acoustic sensitivity and to assist with possible development of gillnet bycatch mitigation strategies that include auditory deterrent devices. We used both psychoacoustic and electrophysiological techniques to investigate underwater duck hearing in several species including the long-tailed duck ( Clangula hyemalis ), surf scoter ( Melanitta perspicillata ) and common eider ( Somateria mollissima ). Psychoacoustic results demonstrated that all species tested share a common range of maximum auditory sensitivity of 1.0–3.0 kHz, with the long-tailed ducks and common eiders at the high end of that range (2.96 kHz), and surf scoters at the low end (1.0 kHz). In addition, our electrophysiological results from 4 surf scoters and 2 long-tailed ducks, while only tested at 0.5, 1 and 2 kHz, generally agree with the audiogram shape from our psychoacoustic testing. The results from this study are applicable to the development of effective acoustic deterrent devices or pingers in the 2–3 kHz range to deter sea ducks from anthropogenic threats.

Journal of Experimental Biology↗
USGS2020

Increasing rates of carbon burial in southwest Florida coastal wetlands

Rates of organic carbon (OC) burial in some coastal wetlands appear to be greater in recent years than they were in the past. Possible explanations include ongoing mineralization of older OC or the influence of an unaccounted‐for artefact of the methods used to measure burial rates. Alternatively, the trend may represent real acceleration in OC burial. We quantified OC burial rates of mangrove and coastal freshwater marshes in southwest Florida through a comparison of rates derived from 210 Pb, 137 Cs, and surface marker horizons (MHs). Age/depth profiles of lignin: OC were used to assess whether down‐core remineralization had depleted the OC pool relative to lignin, and lignin phenols were used to quantify the variability of lignin degradation. Over the past 120 years, OC burial rates at seven sites increased by factors ranging from 1.4 to 6.2. We propose that these increases represent net acceleration. Change in relative sea‐level rise is the most likely large‐scale driver of acceleration, and sediment deposition from large storms can contribute to periodic increases. Mangrove sites had higher OC and lignin burial rates than marsh sites, indicating inherent differences in OC burial factors between the two habitat types. The higher OC burial rates in mangrove soils mean that their encroachment into coastal freshwater marshes has the potential to increase burial rates in those locations even more than might be expected from the acceleration trends. Regionally, these findings suggest that burial represents a substantially growing proportion of the coastal wetland carbon budget.

Florida↗
USGS1970

Metamorphosis of the landlocked sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus

The external metamorphosis of the sea lamprey was divided into four stages, based primarily on the condition of the mouth: mouth reduced, mouth fused, mouth enclosed, and mouth elongated. During metamorphosis, the eye enlarged greatly, the snout and mouth region changed from a fleshy hood enclosing a sieve apparatus to a large sucking disc, the nasopore membrane and the branchial area shrank, the branchiopores changed in shape, the general color changed from dark brown and yellow to an intense blue-black dorsally and white ventrally, and the total length increased. Metamorphosis began in early to mid-July and did not take place after August. The duration of external metamorphosis was about 3 months for lampreys transforming under natural conditions. The mean lengths of metamorphosing lampreys from tributaries of lakes Superior and Michigan were 145 and 136 mm, respectively.

Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada↗
USGS2010

The thermal signature of volcanic eruptions on Io and Earth,

We investigate a spectrum-based technique to identify the style of active volcanic eruptions on Jupiter's moon Io. Thermal remote sensing of Io has had to rely primarily on low-spatial-resolution data, similar to low-spatial-resolution satellite data applied to detecting and charting the temporal evolution of terrestrial hot spots. These terrestrial analyses use data from sensors designed to monitor the weather and sea surface temperature. On Io, such low-spatial-resolution data are used to classify eruption styles (modes of emplacement) by means of several criteria related to the temporal evolution of the infrared spectrum associated with the eruptive activity at each hot spot, which we term “thermal signature.” We find that the ratio of the emission at 2 and 5 µm, and how this ratio changes with time, is often diagnostic of eruption style, even in low-spatial-resolution data. Tests using thermal data for terrestrial “ground truth” cases show that our classification system is valid on Earth. The results of our analysis can be used to aid in the design of future space-based instruments that can be used for volcano monitoring on Io, as well as Earth.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2003

Basin-centered asperities in great subduction zone earthquakes: A link between slip, subsidence, and subduction erosion?

Published areas of high coseismic slip, or asperities, for 29 of the largest Circum-Pacific megathrust earthquakes are compared to forearc structure revealed by satellite free-air gravity, bathymetry, and seismic profiling. On average, 71% of an earthquake's seismic moment and 79% of its asperity area occur beneath the prominent gravity low outlining the deep-sea terrace; 57% of an earthquake's asperity area, on average, occurs beneath the forearc basins that lie within the deep-sea terrace. In SW Japan, slip in the 1923, 1944, 1946, and 1968 earthquakes was largely centered beneath five forearc basins whose landward edge overlies the 350??C isotherm on the plate boundary, the inferred downdip limit of the locked zone. Basin-centered coseismic slip also occurred along the Aleutian, Mexico, Peru, and Chile subduction zones but was ambiguous for the great 1964 Alaska earthquake. Beneath intrabasin structural highs, seismic slip tends to be lower, possibly due to higher temperatures and fluid pressures. Kilometers of late Cenozoic subsidence and crustal thinning above some of the source zones are indicated by seismic profiling and drilling and are thought to be caused by basal subduction erosion. The deep-sea terraces and basins may evolve not just by growth of the outer arc high but also by interseismic subsidence not recovered during earthquakes. Basin-centered asperities could indicate a link between subsidence, subduction erosion, and seismogenesis. Whatever the cause, forearc basins may be useful indicators of long-term seismic moment release. The source zone for Cascadia's 1700 A.D. earthquake contains five large, basin-centered gravity lows that may indicate potential asperities at depth. The gravity gradient marking the inferred downdip limit to large coseismic slip lies offshore, except in northwestern Washington, where the low extends landward beneath the coast. Transverse gravity highs between the basins suggest that the margin is seismically segmented and could produce a variety of large earthquakes. Published in 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2003

Magma supply dynamics at Westdahl volcano, Alaska, modeled from satellite radar interferometry

A group of satellite radar interferograms that span the time period from 1991 to 2000 shows that Westdahl volcano, Alaska, deflated during its 1991-1992 eruption and is reinflating at a rate that could produce another eruption within the next several years. The rates of inflation and deflation are approximated by exponential decay functions having time constants of about 6 years and a few days, respectively. This behavior is consistent with a deep, constant-pressure magma source connected to a shallow reservoir by a magma-filled conduit. An elastic deformation model indicates that the reservoir is located about 6 km below sea level and beneath Westdahl Peak. We propose that the magma flow rate through the conduit is governed by the pressure gradient between the deep source and the reservoir. The pressure gradient, and hence the flow rate, are greatest immediately after eruptions. Pressurization of the reservoir decreases both the pressure gradient and the flow rate, but eventually the reservoir ruptures and an eruption or intrusion ensues. The eruption rate is controlled partly by the pressure gradient between the reservoir and surface, and therefore it, too, decreases with time. When the supply of eruptible magma is exhausted, the eruption stops, the reservoir begins to repressurize at a high rate, and the cycle repeats. This model might also be appropriate for other frequently active volcanoes with stable magma sources and relatively simple magma storage systems.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2017

Can beaches survive climate change?

Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS1974

Palynology and stratigraphy of Cretaceous strata in Long Island, New York, and Block Island, Rhode Island

Palynologic analysis of core samples from Fire Island well, S21,091T, in southern Long Island and of surface samples from Garvies Point in northern Long Island and from eastern Block Island indicates that the Cretaceous of this region includes Raritan, Magothy, Matawan, and Monmouth (as previously defined) strata, and ranges in age from Cenomanian to Maestrichtian, in agreement with recent studies in New Jersey. In this study, the oldest Cretaceous, which is equivalent to the Woodbridge day Member of the Raritan Formation of New Jersey, occurs just above sea level at Garvies Point, Glen Cove, and in the Port Washington sand pits in northwestern Long Island, whereas sediments from near the base of the Fire Island well arc correlated with the South Amboy Fire Clay Member. The Magothy and Matawan combined in Long Island are about 1,500 ft (457 m) thick, whereas in New Jersey both units rarely exceed a thickness of 500 ft (152 m). Outcropping Cretaceous sediments in Block Island are equivalent to the South Amboy Fire Clay Member rather than the Magothy, as indicated in prior studies. Palynologic zonation of the Late Cretaceous is tentatively extended to Magothy and younger strata on the basis of the appearance and proliferation of the more advanced, angiosperm pollen forms. This study also provides a basis for extending the zonation and hence the correlation to the sediments of the Continental Shelf.

New York, Rhode Island↗
USGS2019

Combining numerical and statistical models to predict storm-induced dune erosion

Dune erosion is an important aspect to consider when assessing coastal flood risk, as dune elevation loss makes the protected areas more susceptible to flooding. However, most advanced dune erosion numerical models are computationally expensive, which hinders their application in early-warning systems. Based on a combination of probabilistic and process-based numerical modeling, we develop an efficient statistical tool to predict dune erosion during storms. The analysis focuses on Dauphin Island, AL in the northern Gulf of Mexico, where we combine synthetic sea storms with a calibrated and validated XBeach model to develop and test a range of different surrogate models for their ability to predict barrier-island geometric parameters under storm conditions. Surrogate models are developed by combining the oceanographic forcing from 100 optimally sampled sea-storm events covering the entire multivariate parameter space (used as XBeach input) and associated changes in the dune system (XBeach output). We test four surrogate models using a k-fold approach for validation. All models perform well in predicting changes in dune elevation, barrier-island area, and width, but are less accurate in predicting alterations in the cross-shore locations of dune morphological features. Multivariate adaptive regression splines are identified as the best surrogate model based on their fast development and good performance, attaining a modified Mielke index of 0.81 for dune crest height. As demonstrated at Dauphin Island, our approach shows potential to be used in an operational framework to predict dune response (in particular crest elevation change) when water level and wave forecasts are available.

Alabama↗
USGS1984

Drowned reefs as indicators of the rate of subsidence of the Island of Hawaii

A major submerged terrace whose seaward edge is at about 150 m depth was investigated in 1983 during 10 dives with the Hawaii Undersea Research Laboratory (HURL) submersible Makali'i off Kealakekua Bay, Hawaii. The seaward termination of the terrace is a steep wall of reef limestone that extends from 150 to 250 m below sea level. Three samples of limestone collected from the reef face at depths of 204-219 m yield a weighted average age of 13,250 (S.D. 380) years before present. The -150 m terrace as well as two deeper terraces off northwestern Hawaii at depths of and apparently were formed by the interaction of glacioeustatic sea-level changes and island subsidence. The best fit of depth, age, and subsidence data indicates that the northwestern coast of Hawaii has subsided at an absolute rate of 1.8 to 3 + mm/yr and that the rate of subsidence has generally increased over the past 0.3 m.y. Each reef terrace grew intermittently for nearly 0.1 m.y.; the -150 m reef terrace was drowned about 13,000 years ago, the -390 m terrace about 145,000 years ago, and the -580 m terrace about 255,000 years ago. Warping of the two older terraces may have resulted from crustal loading caused by the major growth period of Mauna Loa volcano.

Journal of Geology↗