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Examining 22 years of ambient seismic wavefield at Mount St. Helens

An increase in seismic activity precedes most volcanic eruptions. Whereas event-based forecasting approaches have been successful, some eruptions remain unanticipated, resulting in casualties and damage. Our study leverages the recent advancements in ambient field seismology. We explore features extracted from continuous ambient fields using traditional methods, for example, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, root mean square, root median square, real-time seismic amplitude measurement, and novel methods (displacement seismic amplitude ratio and spectral width). In addition, we explore unsupervised learning of higher order wavelet features using scattering networks. We find that combining all the methods was necessary to disentangle the effects of seismic sources from structural changes at Mount St. Helens. Although the ambient wavefield-based approach does not yield additional or more significant precursory signals than event-based methods at Mount St. Helens, our study demonstrates that the ambient wavefield provides supplementary information, mainly about structural changes and complements traditional methods. The ambient seismic wavefield offers additional insights into long-lasting processes. We find enhanced wave attenuation correlating with geochemical measurements. We interpret this as ongoing structural changes, such as dome growth or the evolution of the volcanic conduit system. On annual and decadal timescales, we interpret seasonal seismic attenuation in the shallow subsurface as groundwater fluctuations, corroborated by observations at the nearby Spirit Lake level. This multimethod approach at Mount St. Helens sheds light on a volcanic system’s underlying dynamics and structure.

Washington

Towards mobile wind measurements using joust configured ultrasonic anemometer for applications in gas flux quantification

Small uncrewed aerial systems (sUASs) can be used to quantify emissions of greenhouse and other gases, providing flexibility in quantifying these emissions from a multitude of sources, including oil and gas infrastructure, volcano plumes, wildfire emissions, and natural sources. However, sUAS-based emission estimates are sensitive to the accuracy of wind speed and direction measurements. In this study, we examined how filtering and correcting sUAS-based wind measurements affects data accuracy by comparing data from a miniature ultrasonic anemometer mounted on a sUAS in a joust configuration to highly accurate wind data taken from a nearby eddy covariance flux tower (aka the Tower). These corrections had a small effect on wind speed error, but reduced wind direction errors from 50° to >120° to 20–30°. A concurrent experiment examining the amount of error due to the sUAS and the Tower not being co-located showed that the impact of this separation was 0.16–0.21 ms − 1 "> ms − 1 , a small influence on wind speed errors. Lower wind speed errors were correlated with lower turbulence intensity and higher relative wind speeds. There were also some loose trends in diminished wind direction errors at higher relative wind speeds. Therefore, to improve the quality of sUAS-based wind measurements, our study suggested that flight planning consider optimizing conditions that can lower turbulence intensity and maximize relative wind speeds as well as include post-flight corrections.

Alaska

Reference 1D seismic velocity models for volcano monitoring and imaging: Methods, models, and applications

Seismic velocity models of the crust are an integral part of earthquake monitoring systems at volcanoes. 1D models that vary only in depth are typically used for real‐time hypocenter determination and serve as critical reference models for detailed 3D imaging studies and geomechanical modeling. Such models are usually computed using seismic tomographic methods that rely on P ‐ and S ‐wave arrival‐time picks from numerous earthquakes recorded at receivers around the volcano. Traditional linearized tomographic methods that jointly invert for source locations, velocity structure, and station corrections depend critically on having reasonable starting values for the unknown parameters, are susceptible to local misfit minima and divergence, and often do not provide adequate uncertainty information. These issues are often exacerbated by sparse seismic networks, inadequate distributions of seismicity, and/or poor data quality common at volcanoes. In contrast, modern probabilistic global search methods avoid these issues only at the cost of increased computation time. In this article, we review both approaches and present example applications and comparisons at several volcanoes in the United States, including Mount Hood (Oregon), Mount St. Helens (Washington), the Island of Hawai’i, and Mount Cleveland (Alaska). We provide guidance on the proper usage of these methods as relevant to challenges specific to volcano monitoring and imaging. Finally, we survey‐published 1D P ‐wave velocity models from around the world and use them to derive a generic stratovolcano velocity model, which serves as a useful reference model for comparison and when local velocity information is sparse.

Seismological Research Letters

What 25+ years of "Did You Feel It" intensities tell us about shaking in California

“When will the Big One happen?” is a question that people often have for earthquake scientists. But while waiting for the “Big One” to occur, people will usually experience frightening or damaging shaking from multiple relatively smaller‐magnitude earthquakes. Given this context, it raises the question: “Where does most of the damage come from?” Could smaller, yet more frequent, earthquakes account for the majority of reported impactful shaking? To explore this question, we consider reports of earthquake damage and felt shaking experiences from a catalog of community‐collected intensity values from the U.S. Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It?” system. Comparing these intensities to expectations from a ground‐motion model, we find that earthquakes of magnitudes smaller than expected are responsible for most reported intensities of community decimal intensities (CDI) 4.5 and above (moderate and higher shaking intensity levels). (Here “expected value” is meant in its mathematical sense of the mean or equivalently median shaking intensity.) We also present a regional analysis of observed earthquake shaking for specific areas, detailing the maximum intensity experienced within a predetermined area. We identify several instances of M < 4.5 events that generated maximum intensities of CDI > 5 in regions in California surrounding the cities of Eureka, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Our results motivate the need to include smaller‐magnitude earthquakes in communications about earthquake hazard and risk reduction.

California

The digital archivist: Automating legacy macroseismic data processing using large language models

Macroseismic data are a key resource to investigate shaking and damage from preinstrumental and early instrumental eras. However, data are often stored as inconsistently formatted reports describing observed shaking and damage, making manually parsing and interpreting accounts labor‐intensive. We introduce a novel workflow using Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro large language model (LLM) to automate the extraction and structuring of macroseismic observations from summary reports. We apply this workflow to the 22 March 1957 M 5.3 Daly City, California, earthquake as a case study. We used Gemini to extract addresses, originally assigned modified Mercalli intensity values, and descriptions from each report. To address coordinate precision limits, addresses were geocoded via Google’s Geocoding application programming interface. This workflow yielded over 2300 geocoded intensity reports for the Daly City earthquake. We use the geocoded accounts, with the original report intensity assignments, to develop a shaking intensity map that in some respects rivals modern Did You Feel It? Maps. We also extract and present data for the 9 February 1971 M L 6.7 Sylmar, California, earthquake. Our results demonstrate the potential of LLMs for reliably extracting and analyzing large, unstructured macroseismic datasets. LLMs offer a scalable solution for rapidly digitizing macroseismic archives, enabling their broader use to constrain ground‐motion models in modern seismic hazard analysis and to improve our understanding of site effects in urban areas. The concepts explored here may also be applied to the handling of other legacy seismological and earth science data.

Seismological Research Letters

Modeling legacy nitrogen transport under instantaneous, steady-state, and transient groundwater flow conditions

In hydrologic settings where groundwater discharge contributes substantially to surface waters, legacy nitrogen in groundwater can confound surface water nitrogen loads estimated exclusively from current terrestrial sources. Additionally, legacy nitrogen in groundwater can contribute to lagged responses to nitrogen management efforts. Some methods of estimating groundwater contributions to surface water nitrogen loads account for legacy nitrogen, while others do not. The resulting differences are rarely quantified. We used a numerical modeling framework to compare three methods of estimating time-varying annual groundwater nitrogen loads to surface water receptors on eastern Long Island, New York. The instantaneous load method used steady-state contributing areas and includes no temporal groundwater lag. The second method used numerical simulations of nitrogen loads under steady-state flow, which captures groundwater transport lags but omits the annual variability in transient hydrologic stresses. The third method numerically simulated both transient groundwater flow and nitrogen transport to explicitly capture the effects of legacy nitrogen in groundwater. Depending on antecedent nitrogen and hydrologic conditions, historical nitrogen loads estimated from the numerical simulations were sometimes similar (<10% difference) and other times substantially different (±100%) from the instantaneous load estimates. Additionally, simulated future surface water nitrogen loads responded asymptotically over several decades following reductions in terrestrial nitrogen sources, further highlighting the effect of groundwater transport lag times. The comparison of the three methods, quantification of historical interannual variability, and prediction of lagged responses to nitrogen source reductions provide important context for decision makers using estimated groundwater nitrogen loads to help evaluate nitrogen management efficacy.

New York

Corundum discovered by SuperCam and the Perseverance rover at Jezero crater, Mars

Mars is primarily composed of mafic mineral assemblages and their alteration products, but small, scattered rocks strewn across the landscape offer clues to greater petrological diversity. While traversing the Jezero crater rim, the Perseverance rover encountered several plagioclase-rich light-toned float rocks. SuperCam identified the distinctive signature of corundum (α-Al 2 O 3 ) in these rocks using time-resolved luminescence spectroscopy. Two strong peaks (692.7 and 694.1 nm) with millisecond lifetimes, and additional supporting lines, are consistent with Cr 3+ substitution for Al 3+ in corundum. Corundum forms in Al-rich, Si-depleted environments through magmatic or metamorphic processes. Given the rocks' small size, association with plagioclase, and location on the crater rim, we interpret the most plausible formation scenario to be impact induced metamorphism at the interface of a felsic and a mafic/ultramafic member with the likely action of fluids at some stage, although other possibilities are not excluded.

Geophysical Research Letters

Moment magnitude for small earthquakes in the Delaware basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico, USA

The Delaware Basin region of west Texas and southeast New Mexico has become one of the most prolific regions of seismic activity in the continental United States due to widespread hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal injection. In response to the increased number of earthquakes in this region, rapid and accurate characterization of earthquake sources is necessary to understand the evolution of seismic activity and level of seismic hazard associated with these earthquakes. This study re-evaluates earthquake magnitudes, estimating moment magnitude (MW) for small earthquakes in the Delaware Basin using 1) moment-rate spectra derived from S-wave coda envelopes, and 2) a relative magnitude method that relies exclusively on the ratio of waveform amplitudes between highly correlated waveform pairs. The coda-envelope method produces accurate M W estimates for small earthquakes ( M 1.5 – 3) that are consistent with independent, waveform modeled moment magnitudes for events with M W > 3 . Using the relative amplitudes method to extend these M W magnitudes to many other events, we successfully provide relative moment magnitude ( M W,rel ) values for 81% of the Texas Seismological Network catalog in the Delaware Basin region, and 45% of the USGS Induced Seismicity Project’s catalog of events in southeast New Mexico. The adoption and integration of the calibrated M W,rel method with current magnitude estimation methods offers valuable insights into the relationships between local and moment magnitude and will contribute to improved characterization of widespread induced seismicity.

New Mexico, Texas

Testing rate‐and‐state predictions of aftershock decay with distance

We analyze aftershocks of the 2019 M 7.1 Ridgecrest mainshock and isolated M 5–6 mainshocks in southern California to test predictions made by the rate‐and‐state friction model of Dieterich (1994) . Rate‐and‐state friction predicts that the seismicity rate after a stress step follows Omori decay, where the Omori c ‐value, which is the saturation in aftershock rate observed at small times, is larger for smaller stress steps. Put in the context of an aftershock sequence, this predicts that the Omori c ‐value will be systematically larger at greater distances from the mainshock. To our knowledge, this predicted effect has not been observed. In part this may be because the Omori c ‐value is difficult to measure because it often reflects short‐term catalog incompleteness rather than a true saturation in aftershock rate. We explore the dependence of the Omori c ‐value on the distance to the mainshock by applying the “ a ‐positive” method ( van der Elst and Page, 2023 ). This method is insensitive to short‐term aftershock incompleteness and allows resolution of the true aftershock rate deep into the mainshock coda. For aftershocks of the Ridgecrest mainshock and stacked M 5–6 mainshocks, we observe systematic differences in early aftershock rates, relative to mainshock distance, consistent with the predictions of rate‐and‐state friction. Furthermore, for the larger Ridgecrest dataset, we observe that aftershocks nearer to the mainshock start earlier, and we resolve a flattening of the Omori curve consistent with a larger Omori c ‐value for the farthest aftershocks, as predicted by Dieterich (1994) .

Seismological Research Letters

Onset of aftershocks: Constraints on the Rate-and-State model

Aftershock rates typically decay with time t after the mainshock according to the Omori–Utsu law, R (t)=K(c+t) −p ⁠ , with parameters K , c , and p . The rate‐and‐state (RS) model, which is currently the most popular physics‐based seismicity model, also predicts an Omori–Utsu decay with p = 1 and a c ‐value that depends on the size of the coseismic stress change. Because the mainshock‐induced stresses strongly vary in space, the c ‐value should vary accordingly. Short‐time aftershock incompleteness (STAI) in earthquake catalogs has prevented a detailed test of this prediction so far, but the newly developed a ‐positive method for reconstructing the true earthquake rate now allows its testing. Using previously published slip models, we calculate the coseismic stress changes for the six largest mainshocks in Southern California in recent decades and estimate the maximum shear as a scalar proxy of the coseismic stress tensor. Aftershock rates reconstructed for events in different stress ranges show that the rates follow a power law with p = 1 independent of stress with no clear sign of a c ‐value. The onset of the power‐law decay is abrupt and more delayed in areas with smaller stress changes. The observations do not necessarily contradict the RS model, as STAI limits the resolution for early aftershocks, and the RS model can reproduce the observations for specific Aσ values. However, the observations lead to strong constraints, namely Aσ <10 kPa and a power‐law decay of the background rate with distance to the fault, with exponent 2.7.

Seismological Research Letters

Petrogenesis and mineralization potential of spinifex komatiitic basalts in the Bradley Peak greenstone terrane, Wyoming Province

Komatiitic volcanic rocks are important hosts of Ni sulfide mineralization and record early Earth evolution; however, those in the well-studied Archean Wyoming Province have received little attention. Here, we elucidate the timing and petrogenesis of the Bradley Peak komatiitic volcanic rocks using field and textural observations, geochronology, and geochemistry. Detrital and igneous zircon U-Pb ages for two samples from previously undated units support published age determinations, placing the eruption age at 2.72 Ga. Stratigraphy of the volcanic flows was mapped and 36 samples including cumulates, greenschists, and spinifex-textured rocks were collected. Whole-rock geochemistry was used to classify the spinifex-textured samples as Al-undepleted komatiitic basalts (11–17 wt% MgO). Platinum-group element concentrations (n = 25) are like those in global Al-undepleted komatiitic basalts, and PGE/Ti ratios do not indicate the volcanic flows likely host sulfide mineralization. Initial ε Nd values of −0.5 to +4.7 (n = 16), indicate that these lavas were derived from a depleted mantle source and have negligible evolved crust contamination. The primary magma to the komatiitic basalt flows is estimated to have had 19 wt% MgO and be derived from ∼15 to 25 % mantle partial melting at 3–4 GPa. Trace element chemistry and thermodynamic modeling suggest the primary melt assimilated local banded iron formation. Although the Bradley Peak komatiitic basalts do not contain positive evidence of magmatic sulfide deposits, depleted Au in the flows suggests they could be source rocks for nearby orogenic gold deposits.

Wyoming

Airborne geophysical analysis to decipher salinization for coastal Louisiana

Coastal Louisiana is known for saltwater intrusion that threatens wetlands, aquifers, and rivers. However, the extent of saltwater intrusion is not well understood. This study develops an innovative framework with airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to map chloride concentration distributions for wetlands in the Mississippi River deltaic plain and Chenier plain as well as for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) and Chicot aquifer. Moreover, the framework maps chloride concentrations along the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River. Key components in the framework include the establishment of resistivity-to-chloride concentration transformation, 3D resistivity architecture building through geostatistics, and the employment of a lithologic model. The transformation functions correlate AEM resistivity data with porewater salinity measurements and groundwater and river chloride samples. The results show that AEM data reliably infers soil water chloride concentrations and correlates well with the distribution of various marsh types. AEM data reveals extensive saltwater presence at depth and near the coast, originating from salt domes and the Gulf of Mexico, respectively. The saltwater upconing pattern in the Chicot aquifer is likely due to excessive groundwater withdrawals. The AEM data also confirms a distinct tongue of saltwater intruding into the Atchafalaya Basin from the Gulf. The AEM data helps to identify faults that are obscured or eroded at the surface, which appear as leaky barriers in the subsurface where dramatic changes in chloride concentration are apparent. Finally, this study uses the AEM data to infer the presence of an extensive seawater wedge in the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River.

Louisiana

Software to support remote sensing of river discharge based on critical flow theory

Water resource management requires accurate observations of streamflow but standard field methods for measuring river discharge ( Q ) are costly and can be hazardous for equipment and personnel. Remote sensing has become a viable alternative, but many image-based techniques require field data for calibration and depth and velocity can seldom be mapped with a single sensor. A new approach based on critical flow theory, in contrast, allows both of these attributes to be inferred from readily available image data. This technique only pertains to sites with standing waves, called undular hydraulic jumps (UHJs), but a recent investigation demonstrated its potential to provide accurate discharge estimates. This paper introduces software designed to facilitate Inferring Q from UHJs Identified in River Images (InQUIRI). The package includes modules for retrieving data from image servers, making the measurements of wavelength and width required to calculate discharge, inferring a representative wavelength from a profile digitized along a wave train, combining multiple estimates to obtain an ensemble median discharge, and assessing accuracy via comparison to gage records from the U.S. Geological Survey. By making these steps easier to implement, InQUIRI enables users to apply the workflow to a variety of UHJ-containing images. Accumulating more case studies, some successful and others less so, would help constrain the range of applicability of the critical flow approach and foster development of refined guidelines for selecting and measuring waves. The software described herein could play an important role in promoting informed use of this new technique for non-contact streamflow measurement.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah

Updating regional‐scale geospatial liquefaction models with locally available geotechnical data

We present a method to update the geospatial liquefaction model used by the U.S. Geological Survey’s near‐real‐time ground failure product with subsurface geotechnical data. The geospatial model estimates liquefaction probability from peak ground velocity (via ShakeMap) and geospatial susceptibility proxies. In many regions, additional information relevant to constraining liquefaction likelihood is also available, including surface geology maps and subsurface geotechnical measurements. There is currently no mechanism to use these data in the ground failure product liquefaction model, even though these data could provide more precise constraints on spatial variations in the lithologic character of the soil (surface geology) and direct measurements of the subsurface mechanical properties that affect liquefaction occurrence and severity (geotechnical measurements). In this study, we develop a method to integrate these data with the geospatial model and assess how these data can improve regional‐scale predictions. We develop a Bayesian updating framework and apply it to the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake, for which mapped observations are available to evaluate performance. We constrain the Bayesian framework with 373 Northern California cone penetration tests and liquefaction susceptibility classes based on the mapped surface geology. This Bayesian model incorporates geotechnical information into the geospatial model and more accurately predicts liquefaction occurrences than the geospatial model, while sacrificing less accuracy in terms of predicting the absence of liquefaction than the geotechnical model. In future applications, this approach could be adapted to update other geospatial models using locally available subsurface data.

California

Stream nitrate dynamics driven primarily by discharge and watershed physical and soil characteristics at intensively monitored sites: Insights from deep learning

We developed a suite of models using deep learning to make hindcast predictions of the 7‐day average backward‐looking nitrate concentration at 46 predominantly agricultural sites across the midwestern and eastern United States. The models used daily observations of discharge and meteorological variables and watershed attributes describing anthropogenic modification to hydrology, nitrogen application, climate, groundwater, land use, watershed physiographic attributes, and soils. Across all sites, discharge and watershed soil and physiographic attributes showed a strong influence on model performance. Analysis of drivers across sites revealed considerable regional differences related to controlling processes such as groundwater contributions. We tested several ways to pool data across sites to develop accurate models and make the most effective use of available data. Single‐site models, in which models are trained and tested at a single location, showed generally strong predictive performance (median Kling‐Gupta Efficiency = 0.66), and accuracy at poorly performing sites could be improved by grouping sites with similar characteristics. Developing a single model for all sites reduced performance at several locations with distinct characteristics, suggesting that there is a threshold of dissimilarity beyond which more data does not improve the model. While many deep learning studies have shown that national or even global models can outperform local models, it is not clear that this is true for water quality constituents. This study demonstrates how data can be combined effectively, using deep learning to develop accurate and interpretable models of instream nitrate at sites where varying processes are responsible for changes in nitrate concentration.

Water Resources Research

Are field observations of surface rupture useful? An example from the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake

Field investigations have long been an important component of the scientific response to surface‐faulting earthquakes. However, in light of advances in remote data and models, the question arises whether field‐based observations of surface rupture remain useful for understanding rupture processes and seismic hazards. We approach this question using a field‐based study of the central 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake rupture, at the intersection of the east Anatolian fault (EAF) and Narlı fault. Our field observations include the surface rupture expression and extent of the central EAF and northernmost Narlı fault in generally forested and steep terrain and 68 measurements of left‐lateral surface displacement. These data improve our understanding of the Pazarcık rupture complexity, resolve the surface geometry of the Narlı fault–EAF connection, and exhibit a clear (>2 m) change in surface displacement across this intersection zone that confirms remote‐based coseismic slip models. Our study shows that focusing field efforts in areas of obscured or low‐resolution remote data can yield essential data for refining rupture extent, documenting perishable on‐fault displacement, and improving postearthquake situational awareness. A comparison of similarly large‐magnitude continental surface‐rupturing earthquakes indicates that displacement uncertainties relate to a complex set of factors, including measurement methods, rupture complexity, and displacement magnitude. Our study validates the need for postearthquake field observations, which, when driven by clear motivating questions and knowledge of methodological strengths and limitations, provide high‐resolution rupture data that complement remote‐based models.

Pazarcık

Toward a new framework to evaluate process-based model configurations and quantify data worth prior to calibration

Model criticism, discrimination, and selection methods often rely on calibrated model outputs. Because calibration can be computationally expensive, model criticism can first be undertaken by assessing model outputs obtained from limited prior parameter ensembles. However, such prior-based methods are often heuristic and do not formalize the notion of balancing model consistency with data and model complexity (i.e., model adequacy). We present a new framework to discriminate among candidate models prior to calibration that formalizes prior-to-calibration model adequacy into a metric to implicitly balance prior model output data coverage with model complexity represented by prior output (co)variance. The prior model adequacy metric “Mahalanobis distance deviation” quantifies the deviation of (a) the set of squared Mahalanobis distances of data from a prior model output distribution from (b) the set of squared Mahalanobis distances of data from their own distribution. A new data worth metric “discernment value” is also presented which quantifies the value of data for screening less-adequate models prior to calibration. Discernment value is calculated from the change in variance of a weighted average of prior model outputs from all candidate models due to less-adequate model outputs receiving lower weight. The framework is demonstrated using a one-dimensional groundwater flow model with eight possible configurations. A synthetic data network is used to test the framework. Results show the framework identifies the candidate models most similar to the true model used to create the synthetic data. Discernment values show variation in the value of different data types and locations for screening less-adequate models.

Water Resources Research

Using peak geometry and shifts in the x-ray spectrum of carbon from electron probe microanalysis to determine thermal maturity of organic matter

During the burial of mudstones, the associated organic matter undergoes gradual thermal maturation, a key process that can influence the reactivity of organic matter during catagenesis, the formation of hydrocarbon deposits and the chemical weathering of mudstones. Conventional methods for assessing the thermal maturity of organic matter often fail to reflect the geochemical heterogeneity between individual organic phases in mudstone samples. Here, we report an alternative, non-destructive, surficial and micro-scale (analytical spot size of ~ 300 nm with about 4 μm diffusion depth for micrometre-size organic grains) method to evaluate the thermal maturity of organic matter in mudstones using the carbon K α X-ray spectrum measured by field emission-electron probe microanalyser (FE-EPMA). Using this method, we observed correlations between parameter values derived from FE-EPMA spectra, including the peak position, the peak area and the intra-sample heterogeneity of these measurements, and independently measured vitrinite/solid bitumen reflectance for a suite of mudstones, representing different age, geological context and burial depth. With the increased values in peak area and position, we identified an increase in the carbon mass fraction of organic matter and the mean nominal oxidation state of carbon approaching zero. These trends, which are consistent with aromatisation and graphitisation, provide the rationale for using FE-EPMA to estimate the thermal maturity of organic matter. To explore some of these trends in more detail, we employed time-of-flight secondary ionisation mass spectrometry, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and optical reflectance measurements on a subset of samples.

Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research