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USGS2022

Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey and asked experts to focus on the taxa and freshwater, terrestrial, or marine ecosystem with which they are most familiar. We found several points of overwhelming consensus (for instance, multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically) and important demographic and geographic differences in specialists’ perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in biodiversity science, including women and those from the Global South, recommended different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring new protected areas, and provided higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts. This may in part be because they disproportionately study the most highly threatened taxa and habitats.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗

USGS2015

Scale-appropriate adaptation strategies and actions in the Northeast and Midwest United States

Climate Change Adaptation is a growing field within conservation and natural resource management. Actions taken toward climate change adaptation account for climate impacts and ecological responses, both current and projected into the future. These actions attempt to accomplish a number of goals, including the conservation of wildlife and ecosystems by reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. Climate change adaptation strategies and approaches for natural resources can be thought of as part of a continuum of potential actions ranging from 1) options or goals to 2) strategies, 3) approaches, and 4) tactics. There are a range of decision support tools and processes to aid climate change adaptation. This document highlights several including the Adaptation Workbook, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments, Structured Decision Making, Adaptive Resource Management, and Scenario Planning. It will also provide case studies on the application of these tools across the Northeast and Midwest. Improved, better-integrated, and increasingly coordinated monitoring systems would be helpful to detect, track, and attribute species and habitat shifts to climate change over spatiotemporal scales. We highlight regional examples of projects and programs addressing these challenges. Illustrative case studies of climate change adaptation efforts are presented across landscape/ecoregion, state, and local scales. Appendix 4.1 provides a synthesis of over 900 general, species and habitat-specific adaptation strategies and tactics from 9 regional studies being considered or implemented across the region. The study of climate change adaptation is a relatively new and rapidly growing field focused on preparing for and responding to the current and future impacts of climate change. The goal of this chapter is to highlight different approaches, processes, and tools currently being used across the region through illustrative case studies at varying scales. In addition, we provide a synthesis of numerous species and habitat-specific adaptation strategies and actions from existing assessment reports and management plans, which is intended to showcase a range of possibilities for natural resource management under future global change. This report does not prescribe one specific approach to taking action; instead, we outline a range of adaptation 5 tactics, which will require thoughtful consideration of the needs of the species, habitat, and location, the stakeholders and partners involved, the scale that a decision or policy is being implemented at, and the financial and personnel resources available to managers.

Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ke↗

USGS2018

Change in dominance determines herbivore effects on plant biodiversity

Herbivores alter plant biodiversity (species richness) in many of the world’s ecosystems, but the magnitude and the direction of herbivore effects on biodiversity vary widely within and among ecosystems. One current theory predicts that herbivores enhance plant biodiversity at high productivity but have the opposite effect at low productivity. Yet, empirical support for the importance of site productivity as a mediator of these herbivore impacts is equivocal. Here, we synthesize data from 252 large-herbivore exclusion studies, spanning a 20-fold range in site productivity, to test an alternative hypothesis—that herbivore-induced changes in the competitive environment determine the response of plant biodiversity to herbivory irrespective of productivity. Under this hypothesis, when herbivores reduce the abundance (biomass, cover) of dominant species (for example, because the dominant plant is palatable), additional resources become available to support new species, thereby increasing biodiversity. By contrast, if herbivores promote high dominance by increasing the abundance of herbivory-resistant, unpalatable species, then resource availability for other species decreases reducing biodiversity. We show that herbivore-induced change in dominance, independent of site productivity or precipitation (a proxy for productivity), is the best predictor of herbivore effects on biodiversity in grassland and savannah sites. Given that most herbaceous ecosystems are dominated by one or a few species, altering the competitive environment via herbivores or by other means may be an effective strategy for conserving biodiversity in grasslands and savannahs globally.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

USGS2021

Global resorption efficiencies of trace elements in leaves of terrestrial plants

Leaf nutrient resorption is a critical nutrient conservation strategy. Previous studies focus mainly on resorption patterns of macronutrients, but resorption patterns of trace elements remain poorly understood. A meta-analysis was conducted to explore the general patterns of the leaf resorption of eight trace elements [i.e. copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), zinc (Zn), boron (B), manganese (Mn), sodium (Na), aluminium (Al) and iron (Fe)], and a macronutrient [i.e. sulphur (S)] using data collected from 53 published studies. Sulphur (49.6%) had the highest average resorption efficiency followed by Cu (30.3%), Mo (29.5%), Zn (19.5%) and B (17.6%). Two structural elements, Na and Mn, were not resorbed, whereas two potentially toxic elements, Al (−55.6%) and Fe (−25.4%), were accumulated in senesced leaves. Both climatic factors and growth types affected leaf nutrient resorption efficiency, but the magnitudes and directions of the effects differed greatly between S and the trace elements. The resorption efficiencies of S, Cu, Mo and Zn decreased as leaf nutrient concentrations increased, but the structural or potentially toxic elements (i.e. B, Mn, Na, Fe and Al) presented no response or opposite trends. Our results provide global mean resorption efficiencies of trace elements for the first time, and highlight that structural and potentially toxic elements have relatively lower or no leaf resorption, which should be fully considered in biogeochemical models.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2014

Landscape effects on mallard habitat selection at multiple spatial scales during the non-breeding period

Previous studies that evaluated effects of landscape-scale habitat heterogeneity on migratory waterbird distributions were spatially limited and temporally restricted to one major life-history phase. However, effects of landscape-scale habitat heterogeneity on long-distance migratory waterbirds can be studied across the annual cycle using new technologies, including global positioning system satellite transmitters. We used Bayesian discrete choice models to examine the influence of local habitats and landscape composition on habitat selection by a generalist dabbling duck, the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), in the midcontinent of North America during the non-breeding period. Using a previously published empirical movement metric, we separated the non-breeding period into three seasons, including autumn migration, winter, and spring migration. We defined spatial scales based on movement patterns such that movements >0.25 and <30.00 km were classified as local scale and movements >30.00 km were classified as relocation scale. Habitat selection at the local scale was generally influenced by local and landscape-level variables across all seasons. Variables in top models at the local scale included proximities to cropland, emergent wetland, open water, and woody wetland. Similarly, variables associated with area of cropland, emergent wetland, open water, and woody wetland were also included at the local scale. At the relocation scale, mallards selected resource units based on more generalized variables, including proximity to wetlands and total wetland area. Our results emphasize the role of landscape composition in waterbird habitat selection and provide further support for local wetland landscapes to be considered functional units of waterbird conservation and management.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2025

Evidence for marine-driven, cyclical fluctuations in burrow-nesting seabird habitat on the Oregon Coast

Seabirds are among the most threatened birds globally, with the loss or deterioration of coastal breeding habitats posing a severe threat. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances substantially influence coastal ecosystems through erosion and vegetation loss, altering habitat for the wildlife species that depend on them. In addition to these disturbances, oceanographic processes may play an important role in shaping the vegetation at breeding habitats; however, there is limited information on how vegetative conditions for burrow nesting seabirds have changed over time, and whether these changes are related to specific oceanographic or climatic factors. The Oregon Coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex, USA (NWRC) is home to a diverse suite of 1.3 million nesting seabirds from 14 species, which provide valuable ecological, economic, and cultural services, including nutrient transfer to terrestrial habitats and ecotourism for local communities. Over the last 30 years, populations of several burrow nesting seabird species including tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) and rhinoceros auklet ( Cerorhinca monocerata ), which breed on offshore islands, have sharply declined along the Oregon Coast. To better understand the potential factors driving these declines, we conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of an aspect of burrow nesting seabird habitat, vegetation cover, within the Oregon Coast NWRC. Specifically, we quantified vegetative cover on 16 islands from 1992 to 2022 using a combination of empirical data, historical aerial photography (1992–2005), and aerial photography from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (2005–2022). Results showed cyclical fluctuations in vegetation cover coast-wide, which were closely related to large scale oceanographic oscillations. Specifically, vegetation cover was negatively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation and positively correlated with the spring El Nino Southern Oscillation. We did not directly compare seabird population trends to vegetation trends; however, quantifying these long-term changes in vegetation at breeding habitats can contribute to our comprehensive understanding of the myriad factors influencing seabird population dynamics and conservation.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Geographic variation in dispersal of western burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) populations across North America

Dispersal is one of the key elements of species’ metapopulation dynamics and, hence, influences global conservation status. Furthermore, determining the geographic variation in magnitude and direction of dispersal throughout a species’ distribution may expand our understanding of the causes of population declines in species of conservation concern. For instance, western burrowing owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) populations have declined at the northern and eastern edge of their breeding distribution during the 20th century. In the same period, large areas of thornscrub that did not support breeding owls were converted to irrigated agriculture in the southern edge of the subspecies’ breeding distribution in northwestern Mexico. These farmlands now support some of the highest breeding densities of owls. We tested the hypothesis that owls that colonized this recently created habitat originated from declining migratory populations from the northern portion of the subspecies’ range. We used stable isotopes 2 H, 13 C, and 15 N in owl feathers to infer breeding dispersal patterns throughout the subspecies’ breeding range. Populations near the northern edge of the subspecies’ breeding range had immigrants that dispersed over larger distances than immigrants at low and mid latitude populations. However, agricultural populations in northwestern Mexico disrupted this latitudinal pattern, attracting owls from more distant locations. We also found immigrants originated from further distances in declining populations than increasing populations. Stable isotopes provided no evidence of contemporaneous breeding dispersal from Canadian populations to northwestern Mexico but suggest that agricultural areas in the southern edge of the subspecies’ distribution have altered the continental dispersal pattern.

Behavioral Ecology↗

USGS2011

Population assessment and potential functional roles of native mussels in the Upper Mississippi River

1. Despite a heightened global concern for native mussels, fundamental research on mussel ecology in large rivers is lacking. These gaps in knowledge about where mussels occur, and why, are limiting habitat restoration activities. 2. Large-scale systematic surveys for native mussels in three reaches of the Upper Mississippi River documented mussel communities composed of 16–23 species and ranging from 2.9–4.5 live mussels m -2 that were actively recruiting new cohorts into their populations (87–100% of the species were found as juveniles 5 years old). Estimates of mean tissue biomass and production in these reaches ranged from 2.1–3.1 g C m -2 and 0.4–0.6 g C m -2 year -1 , respectively. 3. Mussels filtered a significant amount of water (range, 0.05–0.07 m 3 m -2 d -1 ) over a 480 km reach of the Upper Mississippi River — amounting to a filtration rate of 53.1 million m 3 day -1 . The filtration rate of mussels as a percentage of river discharge ranged from 0.5–1.4% at high flows (5% exceedance), from 1.5–4.4% at moderate flows (50% exceedance) and from 4.4–12.2% during low flows (95% exceedance). 4. Collectively, these data suggest that native mussels play an integral role in this ecosystem by sequestering suspended materials that can be used by other benthic organisms.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2026

Scenarios and strategies for future-proofing ecosystem management under climatic novelty

Climate change is driving unprecedented declines in dominant, habitat-forming foundation species across marine and terrestrial ecosystems globally. As climatic novelty becomes the norm, ecosystem reassembly will become increasingly common. Predicting and understanding these transitions, and their implications for future ecosystem functioning, is essential for designing effective forward-looking management strategies. We explored 3 scenarios that describe a range of ecosystem reassembly trajectories following declines in previously dominant habitat-forming taxa: compensation, in which functionally similar subdominant or immigrating taxa maintain ecosystem structure and function; decline, in which no compensation occurs leading to loss of ecosystem structure and function; and transformation, in which the ecosystem present historically can no longer persist and shifts into a fundamentally different ecosystem type with distinct structure and function. This range of potential outcomes highlights the urgent need to assess the ecological feasibility and functional implications of potential management actions. Scientists and managers can work together to quantify local-scale climatic novelty and ecosystem resilience to better predict the most likely reassembly trajectories and identify management interventions that will optimize ecosystem function. This approach would allow for more proactive planning to support persistence of ecosystem structure and function, helping to future-proof ecosystem management in a rapidly changing world.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2012

A framework for understanding semi-permeable barrier effects on migratory ungulates

1. Impermeable barriers to migration can greatly constrain the set of possible routes and ranges used by migrating animals. For ungulates, however, many forms of development are semi-permeable, and making informed management decisions about their potential impacts to the persistence of migration routes is difficult because our knowledge of how semi-permeable barriers affect migratory behaviour and function is limited. 2. Here, we propose a general framework to advance the understanding of barrier effects on ungulate migration by emphasizing the need to (i) quantify potential barriers in terms that allow behavioural thresholds to be considered, (ii) identify and measure behavioural responses to semi-permeable barriers and (iii) consider the functional attributes of the migratory landscape (e.g. stopovers) and how the benefits of migration might be reduced by behavioural changes. 3. We used global position system (GPS) data collected from two subpopulations of mule deer Odocoileus hemionus to evaluate how different levels of gas development influenced migratory behaviour, including movement rates and stopover use at the individual level, and intensity of use and width of migration route at the population level. We then characterized the functional landscape of migration routes as either stopover habitat or movement corridors and examined how the observed behavioural changes affected the functionality of the migration route in terms of stopover use. 4. We found migratory behaviour to vary with development intensity. Our results suggest that mule deer can migrate through moderate levels of development without any noticeable effects on migratory behaviour. However, in areas with more intensive development, animals often detoured from established routes, increased their rate of movement and reduced stopover use, while the overall use and width of migration routes decreased. 5. Synthesis and applications . In contrast to impermeable barriers that impede animal movement, semi-permeable barriers allow animals to maintain connectivity between their seasonal ranges. Our results identify the mechanisms (e.g. detouring, increased movement rates, reduced stopover use) by which semi-permeable barriers affect the functionality of ungulate migration routes and emphasize that the management of semi-permeable barriers may play a key role in the conservation of migratory ungulate populations.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

Limited hybridisation and introgression despite stocking among endemic Interior Highlands black basses (Centrarchidae: Micropterus)

Aim: Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ; SMB) are globally popular among anglers and have been widely introduced (i.e. stocked) for population management and sportfishing. Importantly, stocking was prevalent before cryptic diversity within the SMB complex was known, which now includes three newly elevated species: Neosho Bass ( M. velox ; NB), Little River Bass ( M. sp. cf. dolomieu Little River; LRB) and Ouachita Bass ( M. sp. cf. dolomieu Ouachita River; OB). We sought to quantify population structure and hybridisation and introgression in these three recently described species. Location: Species-level diversity, particularly in the basin-restricted LRB and OB in the Ouachita Mountains within the Central Interior Highlands (CIH), North America, suggests the presence of distinct genetic variation that could be eroded by introgression. Methods: We estimated interspecific introgression and intraspecific population differentiation in the Smallmouth Bass species complex (SMB-C) using 472 specimens comprising SMB, NB, LRB and OB, including the naturally sympatric Spotted Bass ( M. punctulatus ; SPB). Genomic samples were genotyped on a SNP panel of 192 loci designed to detect allele-sharing on multiple hierarchical levels. Results: We found low range-wide hybridisation between species in the SMB-C and SPB (mostly SMB-C backcrosses), and interspecific heterozygosity varied, indicating differential introgression. Range-wide hybridisation between species in the CIH and SMB was similar overall (but mostly F 2 and CIH backcrosses) and was observed in streams with known SMB stocking in connected reservoirs. Interspecific heterozygosity in SMB hybrids was also generally lower, indicating later-generation backcrosses. We found strong population structure in the Ouachita Mountains (LRB and OB). Main conclusions: Despite isolated incidences of natural (SPB) and human-mediated (SMB) introgression, genomic identity appears intact in endemic LRB and OB, suggesting potential ecological or behavioural isolating mechanisms preventing cross-species reproduction. Our findings reveal that genetic variation remains in cryptic, basin-restricted species in the Ouachita Mountains ecoregion that may be managed for long-term conservation.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2017

A three-dimensional mapping of the ocean based on environmental data

The existence, sources, distribution, circulation, and physicochemical nature of macroscale oceanic water bodies have long been a focus of oceanographic inquiry. Building on that work, this paper describes an objectively derived and globally comprehensive set of 37 distinct volumetric region units, called ecological marine units (EMUs). They are constructed on a regularly spaced ocean point-mesh grid, from sea surface to seafloor, and attributed with data from the 2013 World Ocean Atlas version 2. The point attribute data are the means of the decadal averages from a 57-year climatology of six physical and chemical environment parameters (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate). The database includes over 52 million points that depict the global ocean in x, y, and z dimensions. The point data were statistically clustered to define the 37 EMUs, which represent physically and chemically distinct water volumes based on spatial variation in the six marine environmental characteristics used. The aspatial clustering to produce the 37 EMUs did not include point location or depth as a determinant, yet strong geographic and vertical separation was observed. Twenty-two of the 37 EMUs are globally or regionally extensive, and account for 99% of the ocean volume, while the remaining 15 are smaller and shallower, and occur around coastal features. We assessed the vertical distribution of EMUs in the water column and placed them into classical depth zones representing epipelagic (0 m to 200 m), mesopelagic (200 m to 1,000 m), bathypelagic (1,000 m to 4,000 m) and abyssopelagic (>4,000 m) layers. The mapping and characterization of the EMUs represent a new spatial framework for organizing and understanding the physical, chemical, and ultimately biological properties and processes of oceanic water bodies. The EMUs are an initial objective partitioning of the ocean using long-term historical average data, and could be extended in the future by adding new classification variables and by introducing functionality to develop time-specific EMU distribution maps. The EMUs are an open-access resource, and as both a standardized geographic framework and a baseline physicochemical characterization of the oceanic environment, they are intended to be useful for disturbance assessments, ecosystem accounting exercises, conservation priority setting, and marine protected area network design, along with other research and management applications.

Oceanography↗

USGS2012

Ecological impacts of non-native species

Non-native species are considered one of the greatest threats to freshwater biodiversity worldwide (Drake et al. 1989; Allen and Flecker 1993; Dudgeon et al. 2005). Some of the first hypotheses proposed to explain global patterns of amphibian declines included the effects of non-native species (Barinaga 1990; Blaustein and Wake 1990; Wake and Morowitz 1991). Evidence for the impact of non-native species on amphibians stems (1) from correlative research that relates the distribution or abundance of a species to that of a putative non-native species, and (2) from experimental tests of the effects of a non-native species on survival, growth, development or behaviour of a target species (Kats and Ferrer 2003). Over the past two decades, research on the effects of non-native species on amphibians has mostly focused on introduced aquatic predators, particularly fish. Recent research has shifted to more complex ecological relationships such as influences of sub-lethal stressors (e.g. contaminants) on the effects of non-native species (Linder et al. 2003; Sih et al. 2004), non-native species as vectors of disease (Daszak et al. 2004; Garner et al. 2006), hybridization between non-natives and native congeners (Riley et al. 2003; Storfer et al. 2004), and the alteration of food-webs by non-native species (Nystrom et al. 2001). Other research has examined the interaction of non-native species in terms of facilitation (i.e. one non-native enabling another to become established or spread) or the synergistic effects of multiple non-native species on native amphibians, the so-called invasional meltdown hypothesis (Simerloff and Von Holle 1999). Although there is evidence that some non-native species may interact (Ricciardi 2001), there has yet to be convincing evidence that such interactions have led to an accelerated increase in the number of non-native species and cumulative impacts are still uncertain (Simberloff 2006). Applied research on the control, eradication, and management of non-native species has only just begun but some promising results have already emerged (see below), giving hope to a very difficult conservation issue. This chapter provides an overview of the role of non-native species in amphibian declines and summarizes the current state of knowledge of non-native species that are known, or considered to be, a threat to amphibian species and populations. The biological and socio-economic issues of non-native species control are examined and brief case studies of successful eradication programmes are provided.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects

Climate warming is causing rapid loss of glaciers and snowpack in mountainous regions worldwide. These changes are predicted to negatively impact the habitats of many range-restricted species, particularly endemic, mountaintop species dependent on the unique thermal and hydrologic conditions found only in glacier-fed and snowmelt-driven alpine streams. Though progress has been made, existing understanding of the status, distribution, and ecology of alpine aquatic species, particularly in North America, is lacking, thereby hindering conservation and management programs. Two aquatic insects – the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana and the glacier stonefly Zapada glacier – were recently proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced habitat loss. Using a large dataset (272 streams, 482 total sites) with high-resolution climate and habitat information, we describe the distribution, status, and key environmental features that limit L. tumana and Z. glacier across the northern Rocky Mountains. Lednia tumana was detected in 113 streams (175 sites) within Glacier National Park (GNP) and surrounding areas. The probability of L. tumana occurrence increased with cold stream temperatures and close proximity to glaciers and permanent snowfields. Similarly, densities of L. tumana declined with increasing distance from stream source. Zapada glacier was only detected in 10 streams (20 sites), six in GNP and four in mountain ranges up to ~600 km southwest. Our results show that both L. tumana and Z. glacier inhabit an extremely narrow distribution, restricted to short sections of cold, alpine streams often below glaciers predicted to disappear over the next two decades. Climate warming-induced glacier and snow loss clearly imperils the persistence of L. tumana and Z. glacier throughout their ranges, highlighting the role of mountaintop aquatic invertebrates as sentinels of climate change in mid-latitude regions.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

Toward a mechanistic understanding of human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study linking energy development, avian nest predation, and predators

Demographic consequences of human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) have been widely documented for many populations. The mechanisms underlying such patterns, however, are rarely investigated and yet are critical to understand for effective conservation and management. We investigated the mechanisms underlying reduced avian nest survival with intensification of natural gas development, an increasing source of human-induced rapid environmental change globally. We tested the hypothesis that energy development increased the local activity of important nest predator species, thereby elevating nest predation rates. During 2011–2012, we surveyed predators and monitored 668 nests of Brewer's sparrows Spizella breweri (BRSP), sagebrush sparrows Artemisiospiza nevadensis (SASPs) and sage thrashers Oreoscoptes montanus (SATHs) breeding at twelve sites spanning a gradient of habitat loss from energy development in western Wyoming, USA. Nine species, representing four mammalian and three avian families, were video-recorded depredating eggs and nestlings. Important nest predator species differed across songbird species, despite similar nesting habitats. Approximately 75% of depredation events were by rodents. Consistent with our predictions, detections of most rodent nest predators increased with surrounding habitat loss due to natural gas development, which was associated with increased probability of nest predation for our three focal bird species. An altered nest predator assemblage was therefore at least partly responsible for elevated avian nest predation risk in areas with more surrounding energy development. Synthesis and applications . We demonstrate one mechanism, that is the local augmentation of predators, by which human-induced rapid environmental change can influence the demography of local populations. Given the accelerating trajectory of global energy demands, an important next step will be to understand why the activity and/or abundance of rodent predators increased with surrounding habitat loss from energy development activities.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2024

Droughts reshape apex predator space use and intraguild overlap

1. Droughts are increasing in frequency and severity globally due to climate change, leading to changes in resource availability that may have cascading effects on animal ecology. Resource availability is a key driver of animal space use, which in turn influences interspecific interactions like intraguild competition. Understanding how climate-induced changes in resource availability influence animal space use, and how species-specific responses scale up to affect intraguild dynamics, is necessary for predicting broader community-level responses to climatic changes. 2. Although several studies have demonstrated the ecological impacts of drought, the behavioral responses of individuals that scale up to these broader-scale effects are not well known, particularly among animals in top trophic levels, such as large carnivores. Furthermore, we currently lack understanding of how the impacts of climate variability on individual carnivore behavior are linked to intraguild dynamics, in part because multi-species datasets collected at timescales relevant to climatic changes are rare. 3. Using 11 years of GPS data from four sympatric large carnivore species in southern Africa – lions ( Panthera leo ), leopards ( Panthera pardus ), African wild dogs ( Lycaon pictus) , and cheetahs ( Acinonyx jubatus ) – spanning 4 severe drought events, we test whether drought conditions impact 1) large carnivore space use, 2) broad-scale intraguild spatial overlap, and 3) fine-scale intraguild interactions. 4. Drought conditions expanded space use across species, with carnivores increasing their monthly home range sizes by 35% (wild dogs) to 66% (leopards). Drought conditions increased the amount of spatial overlap between lions and subordinate felids (cheetahs and leopards) by up to 119%, but only lion-cheetah encounter rates were affected by these changes, declining in response to drought. 5. Our findings reveal that drought has a clear signature on the space use of multiple sympatric large carnivore species, which can alter spatiotemporal partitioning between competing species. Our study thereby illuminates the links between environmental change, animal behavior, and intraguild dynamics. While fine-scale avoidance strategies may facilitate intraguild coexistence during periodic droughts, large carnivore conservation may require considerable expansion of protected areas or revised human-carnivore coexistence strategies to accommodate the likely long-term increased space demands of large carnivores under projected increases in drought intensity.

Okavango Delta↗

USGS2025

Environmental drivers of productivity explain population patterns of an Arctic-nesting goose across a half-century

Joint estimation of demographic rates and population size has become an essential tool in ecology because it enables evaluating mechanisms for population change and testing hypotheses about drivers of demography in a single modeling framework. This approach provides a comprehensive perspective on population dynamics and how animal populations will respond to global pressures in future years. However, long-term data for such analyses are often limited in quantity and quality. We developed an integrated population model combining data on demography and population size from nine different sources to understand the population ecology of the lesser snow goose ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ) in the Pacific Flyway in North America from 1970 to 2022. We divided the flyway population into Wrangel Island and Western Arctic subpopulations and assessed demographic mechanisms for population change and environmental and anthropogenic drivers that influenced demography. During 1970–2022, the estimated spring population of snow geese in the Pacific Flyway increased from ~300,000 to ~2,300,000. Short-term changes in population growth rate were primarily driven by changes in productivity in the Western Arctic and productivity and immigration in Wrangel Island. Changes in hunting and natural mortality had less influence on short-term but likely contributed to the pronounced long-term population growth. Early snowmelt positively influenced per capita productivity in both regions, and warm, rainy weather during the non-breeding season was associated with high per capita productivity in the Western Arctic. In the Western Arctic, per capita productivity was negatively associated with population size, and adult natural mortality was positively associated with population size, indicating density-dependent regulation in this subpopulation. In Wrangel Island, warm weather in early fall decreased juvenile natural mortality. Our results demonstrate that per capita productivity and immigration, rather than adult survival, were the primary mechanisms of short-term population change in this long-lived species. Our results also indicate that environmental conditions and density-dependent effects can impact population dynamics more than harvest, even for a long-lived, commonly harvested species. We demonstrate that a warming climate can have multiple effects on demography, emphasizing the importance of assessing a variety of spatial and temporal factors when predicting how populations might respond to large-scale environmental changes. This emphasizes the importance of conservation plans that consider these environmental drivers, although this may complicate direct management of such populations.

Ecological Applications↗