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Modeling hazardous mass flows Geoflows09: Mathematical and computational aspects of modeling hazardous geophysical mass flows; Seattle, Washington, 9–11 March 2009

A recent workshop at the University of Washington focused on mathematical and computational aspects of modeling the dynamics of dense, gravity-driven mass movements such as rock avalanches and debris flows. About 30 participants came from seven countries and brought diverse backgrounds in geophysics; geology; physics; applied and computational mathematics; and civil, mechanical, and geotechnical engineering. The workshop was cosponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program, by the U.S. National Science Foundation through a Vertical Integration of Research and Education (VIGRE) in the Mathematical Sciences grant to the University of Washington, and by the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences. It began with a day of lectures open to the academic community at large and concluded with 2 days of focused discussions and collaborative work among the participants.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Crustal structure and quaternary acceleration of deformation rates in central Washington revealed by stream profile inversion, potential field geophysics, and structural geology of the Yakima folds

Post‐Miocene tectonic uplift along fault‐cored anticlines within central Washington produced the Yakima Fold Province, a region of active NNE‐SSW shortening in the Cascadian backarc. The relative timing and rate of deformation along individual structures is coarsely defined yet imperative for seismic hazard assessment. In this work, we use geomorphic and geophysical mapping, stream profile inversion, and balanced cross‐section methods to constrain fault geometries and slip rates in the Yakima Canyon region. We extract stream profiles from LiDAR data and analytically solve for the rate of relative rock uplift along several active fault‐cored anticlines. To constrain the fault geometries at depth and the long‐term magnitude of deformation, we constructed two line‐balanced cross sections across the folds with forward‐modeled magnetic and gravity anomaly data. Our stream profile results indicate an increase of incision rates in the Pleistocene, and we infer the increase is tectonically controlled. We estimate modern slip rates between 0.4 and 0.6 mm/year accommodated on reverse faults that core the Manastash Ridge, Umtanum Ridge, and Selah Butte anticlines and establish that these faults reactivate and invert older normal faults in basement rocks. Finally, we calculate the time required to accumulate sufficient strain energy for a large magnitude earthquake (M ≥ 7) along individual structures in the Yakima Fold Province. Results show that the Yakima folds likely accommodate large magnitude earthquakes and that it takes several hundred to several thousand years to accumulate sufficient strain energy for an M ≥ 7 earthquake.

Washington

Near-surface geophysics perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

Pointing to the Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability (ICON-FAIR) principles, we have determined several opportunities for implementation within the realm of near-surface geophysics (NSG), representing a broad range of data acquisition and processing technologies. Our work explores the multifaceted community-driven nature of NSG and, by applying ICON-FAIR principles, we identify three key strategic objectives: (i) the development of an approach to integrating NSG into other geoscience data collection projects, (ii) the creation of coordinated and open standardized NSG data, and (iii) the networking of post-secondary institutions to foster an equipment sharing consortium. The precedence within the geoscientific community demonstrates that there are significant opportunities for advancing interdisciplinary applications of NSG through the implementation of structural change within the ICON-FAIR framework.

Earth and Space Science

The biophysical role of water and ice within permafrost nearing collapse: Insights from novel geophysical observations

The impact of permafrost thaw on hydrologic, thermal, and biotic processes remains uncertain, in part due to limitations in subsurface measurement capabilities. To better understand subsurface processes in thermokarst environments, we collocated geophysical and biogeochemical instruments along a thaw gradient between forested permafrost and collapse-scar bogs at the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX) site near Fairbanks, Alaska. Ambient seismic noise monitoring provided continuous high-temporal resolution measurements of water and ice saturation changes. Maps of seismic velocity change identified areas of large summertime velocity reductions nearest the youngest bog, indicating potential thaw and expansion at the bog margin. These results corresponded well with complementary borehole nuclear magnetic resonance measurements of unfrozen water content with depth, which showed permafrost soils nearest the bog edges contained the largest amount of unfrozen water along the study transect, up to 25% by volume. In situ measurements of methane within permafrost soils revealed high concentrations at these bog-edge locations, up to 30% soil gas. Supra-permafrost talik zones were observed at the bog margins, indicating talik formation and perennial liquid water may drive lateral bog expansion and enhanced permafrost carbon losses preceding thaw. Comparison of seismic monitoring with wintertime surface carbon dioxide fluxes revealed differential responses depending on time and proximity to the bogs, capturing the controlling influence of subsurface water and ice on microbial activity and surficial emissions. This study demonstrates a multidisciplinary approach for gaining new understanding of how subsurface physical properties influence greenhouse gas production, emissions, and thermokarst development.

Alaska

Geophysical evidence for the intersection of the St Paul, Cape Palmas and Grand Cess fracture zones with the continental margin of Liberia, West Africa

PUBLISHED reconstructions of Gondwana continent 1 (Fig. l a ) show a gap in fit near the junction of the Americas and Africa. To study this critical area, the Unitedgeo I made geophysical measurements and collected rock samples across the continental margin of Liberia (USGS-IDOE cruise leg 5) in November 1971. Figure I b indicates the location of the 5,400 km of ship track on a generalised bathymetric map 2 . We shall discuss the data in detail elsewhere. Here we present the evidence for the existence of three fracture zones, two of which have not been reported previously, intersecting the continental margin at the north end of the South Atlantic, which remained closed probably until Cretaceous time. We suggest that Precambrian structures on the African continent controlled the location of these fracture zones. Figure Ic compares gravity and magnetic profiles and interpretations of the seismic profiles for three selected lines (27, 30 and 34) crossing the Grand Cess, Cape Palmas and St Paul fracture zones, respectively.

Nature

Geophysical imaging of the Yellowstone hydrothermal plumbing system

The nature of Yellowstone National Park’s plumbing system linking deep thermal fluids to its legendary thermal features is virtually unknown. The prevailing concepts of Yellowstone hydrology and chemistry are that fluids reside in reservoirs with unknown geometries, flow laterally from distal sources and emerge at the edges of lava flows . Here we present a high-resolution synoptic view of pathways of the Yellowstone hydrothermal system derived from electrical resistivity and magnetic susceptibility models of airborne geophysical data . Groundwater and thermal fluids containing appreciable total dissolved solids significantly reduce resistivities of porous volcanic rocks and are differentiated by their resistivity signatures . Clay sequences mapped in thermal areas and boreholes typically form at depths of less than 1,000 metres over fault-controlled thermal fluid and/or gas conduits . We show that most thermal features are located above high-flux conduits along buried faults capped with clay that has low resistivity and low susceptibility. Shallow subhorizontal pathways feed groundwater into basins that mixes with thermal fluids from vertical conduits. These mixed fluids emerge at the surface, controlled by surficial permeability, and flow outwards along deeper brecciated layers. These outflows, continuing between the geyser basins, mix with local groundwater and thermal fluids to produce the observed geochemical signatures. Our high-fidelity images inform geochemical and groundwater models for hydrothermal systems worldwide.

Idaho, Wyoming

Airborne geophysical surveys of the lower Mississippi Valley demonstrate system-scale mapping of subsurface architecture

The Mississippi Alluvial Plain hosts one of the most prolific shallow aquifer systems in the United States but is experiencing chronic groundwater decline. The Reelfoot rift and New Madrid seismic zone underlie the region and represent an important and poorly understood seismic hazard. Despite its societal and economic importance, the shallow subsurface architecture has not been mapped with the spatial resolution needed for effective management. Here, we present airborne electromagnetic, magnetic, and radiometric observations, measured over more than 43,000 flight-line-kilometers, which collectively provide a system-scale snapshot of the entire region. We develop detailed maps of aquifer connectivity and shallow geologic structure, infer relationships between structure and groundwater age, and identify previously unseen paleochannels and shallow fault structures. This dataset demonstrates how regional-scale airborne geophysics can close a scale gap in Earth observation by providing observational data at suitable scales and resolutions to improve our understanding of subsurface structures.

Mississippi River Valley

Dense geophysical observations reveal a triggered, concurrent multi-fault rupture at the Mendocino Triple Junction

A central question of earthquake science is how far ruptures can jump from one fault to another, because cascading ruptures can increase the shaking of a seismic event. Earthquake science relies on earthquake catalogs and therefore how complex ruptures get documented and cataloged has important implications. Recent investments in geophysical instrumentation allow us to resolve increasingly complex, multi-fault ruptures for even moderate-sized earthquakes. We combine dense seismic and geodetic measurements to reveal an enigmatic rupture in late 2021 at the Mendocino Triple Junction in northern California. We show that rupture was dynamically triggered, yet concurrent, on two distinct faults roughly 30 km apart. Thus, this rupture combines features of complex ruptures usually considered to be single earthquakes, and triggered ruptures considered as multiple earthquakes. This event illustrates that moderate-sized earthquakes can exhibit similar complexity to that more commonly documented for large earthquakes.

California

Coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data on capture zone uncertainty analysis

This study investigates capture zone uncertainty that relates to the coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data. Semivariogram uncertainty is represented by the uncertainty in structural parameters (range, sill, and nugget). We used the beta distribution function to derive the prior distributions of structural parameters. The probability distributions of structural parameters were further updated through the Bayesian approach with the Gaussian likelihood functions. Cokriging of noncollocated pumping test data and electrical resistivity data was conducted to better estimate hydraulic conductivity through autosemivariograms and pseudo-cross-semivariogram. Sensitivities of capture zone variability with respect to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, porosity and aquifer thickness were analyzed using ANOVA. The proposed methodology was applied to the analysis of capture zone uncertainty at the Chicot aquifer in Southwestern Louisiana, where a regional groundwater flow model was developed. MODFLOW-MODPATH was adopted to delineate the capture zone. The ANOVA results showed that both capture zone area and compactness were sensitive to hydraulic conductivity variation. We concluded that the capture zone uncertainty due to the semivariogram uncertainty is much higher than that due to the kriging uncertainty for given semivariograms. In other words, the sole use of conditional variances of kriging may greatly underestimate the flow response uncertainty. Semivariogram uncertainty should also be taken into account in the uncertainty analysis. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

Geophysical, archaeological and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called 'little ice ages,' similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

Conference Paper

Calibration of imperfect geophysical models by multiple satellite interferograms with measurement bias

Model calibration consists of using experimental or field data to estimate the unknown parameters of a mathematical model. The presence of model discrepancy and measurement bias in the data complicates this task. Satellite interferograms, for instance, are widely used for calibrating geophysical models in geological hazard quantification. In this work, we used satellite interferograms to relate ground deformation observations to the properties of the magma chamber at K i¯lauea Volcano in Hawai‘i. We derived closed-form marginal likelihoods and implemented posterior sampling procedures that simultaneously estimate the model discrepancy of physical models, and the measurement bias from the atmospheric error in satellite interferograms. We found that model calibration by aggregating multiple interferograms and downsampling the pixels in the interferograms can reduce the computation complexity compared to calibration approaches based on multiple data sets. The conditions that lead to no loss of information from data aggregation and downsampling are studied. Simulation illustrates that both discrepancy and measurement bias can be estimated, and real applications demonstrate that modeling both effects helps obtain a reliable estimation of a physical model’s unobserved parameters and enhance its predictive accuracy. We implement the computational tools in the RobustCalibration package available on CRAN.

Technometrics

Geophysical and hydrologic studies of lake seepage variability

Variations in lake seepage were studied along a 130 m shoreline of Mirror Lake NH. Seepage was downward from the lake to groundwater; rates measured from 28 seepage meters varied from 0 to −282 cm/d. Causes of this variation were investigated using electrical resistivity surveys and lakebed sediment characterization. Two-dimensional (2D) resistivity surveys showed a transition in lakebed sediments from outwash to till that correlated with high- and low-seepage zones, respectively. However, the 2D survey was not able to predict smaller scale variations within these facies. In the outwash, fast seepage was associated with permeability variations in a thin (2 cm) layer of sediments at the top of the lakebed. In the till, where seepage was slower than that in the outwash, a three-dimensional resistivity survey mapped a point of high seepage associated with heterogeneity (lower resistivity and likely higher permeability). Points of focused flow across the sediment–water interface are difficult to detect and can transmit a large percentage of total exchange. Using a series of electrical resistivity geophysical methods in combination with hydrologic data to locate heterogeneities that affect seepage rates can help guide seepage meter placement. Improving our understanding of the causes and types of heterogeneity in lake seepage will provide better data for lake budgets and prediction of mass transfer of solutes or contaminants between lakes and groundwater.

Groundwater

Beware of spatial autocorrelation when applying machine learning algorithms to borehole geophysical logs

Although many of the algorithms now considered to be machine learning algorithms (MLAs) have existed for nearly a century (e.g., Rosenblatt 1958 ), interest in MLAs has recently increased exponentially for solving data-driven problems across a variety of fields due to the expanded availability of large, complex datasets that may be difficult to interrogate using other methods, increases in computing power, and a growing library of easily implemented machine learning tools. While MLAs are often similar to statistical methods, there are key differences in the approach to problem solving. Namely, statistical methods are more concerned with generating informative models from “long” data (i.e., many more observations than explanatory variables), whereas MLAs are typically concerned with generating accurate predictions from “wide” data (i.e., a large number of variables with relatively fewer observations, Bzdok et al. 2018 ). In hydrogeologic studies, such wide datasets may be available from boreholes, where various types of geophysical, geochemical, and lithological information may exist. Borehole datasets are therefore a tempting target for MLAs to reveal hidden relations among gathered data and parameters of interest (e.g., contaminant concentration), and as a method of parameter reduction (e.g., reduce costs by collecting fewer datasets).

Groundwater

Determining the distribution of hydraulic conductivity in a fractured limestone aquifer by simultaneous injection and geophysical logging

A field technique for assessing the vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity in an aquifer was applied to a fractured carbonate formation in southeastern Nevada. The technique combines the simultaneous use of fluid injection and geophysical logging to measure in situ vertical distributions of fluid velocity and hydraulic head down the borehole; these data subsequently are analyzed to arrive at quantitative estimates of hydraulic conductivity across discrete intervals in the aquifer. The results of this analysis identified the contact margin between the Anchor and Dawn Members of the Monte Cristo Limestone as being the dominant transmissive unit. -from Authors

Nevada

An application of surface geophysical techniques to the study of watershed hydrology

The applicability of geophysical methods to experimental watershed research is demonstrated by a study of a 106-acre forested watershed in central Pennsylvania. Data from a shallow seismic refraction study and an electrical resistivity study of the watershed were used to determine the depth of soils, their volumes, depth to bedrock, configuration of the bedrock surface and delineation of the bedrock surface and delineation of the water table. With this information on the subsurface conditions, the hydrologic properties of the watershed were described in greater detail. This information will be of value in explaining the watershed's response to various watershed treatment practices that eventually will be used.

Pennsylvania

Feature-based maximum entropy for geophysical properties of the seabed

The coherent recombination of a direct and seabed reflected path is sensitive to the geophysical properties of the seabed. The concept of feature-based inversion is used in the analysis of acoustic data collected on a vertical line array (VLA) on the New England continental shelf break in about 200 m of water. The analysis approach for the measurements is based on a ray approach in which a direct and bottom reflected path is recombined, resulting in constructive and destructive interference of the acoustic amplitudes with frequency. The acoustic features have the form of prominent nulls of the measured received levels as a function of frequency as a broadband (500–4500 Hz) source passes the closest point of approach to the VLA. The viscous grain shearing (VGS) model is employed to parameterize a two-layer seabed model. The most likely seabed is a sand sediment with a porosity of about 0.42. There is a possibility of a thin (less than 0.5 m) surface layer having a slightly higher porosity between 0.45 and 0.50. Using the estimates for the VGS parameters inferred from the short-range frequency features, a normal mode model is used to predict the received acoustic levels over larger range scales.

Journal of the Acoustical Society of America

A geophysical study of North Park and the surrounding ranges, Colorado

A geophysical study in the North Park basin and surrounding mountains, Colorado illustrates the structural relationship of various sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous rock units. Bouguer anomalies from 1330 gravity stations range from −210 mgal over Precambrian metamorphic rocks in the mountains to −260 mgal in the Walden syncline and —280 mgal in the North Park syncline. Steep gradients delineate a fault which strikes west-northwest along the north flank of the North Park syncline. Two models fitted to the gravity data show 1 to 2 km relief on this steeply dipping fault. Density contrasts between Precambrian metamorphic and igneous rocks produce anomalies of as much as 25-mgal amplitudes in the Park and Medicine Bow Ranges. A 30-km-long seismic refraction profile, parallel to the most negative Bouguer anomaly values in the North Park basin, shows velocities increasing from 2.5 to 3.4 km/sec within Tertiary rocks at depths ranging from 1.2 to 2.0 km. Mesozoic sedimentary rocks have a velocity of 4.0 to 4.5 km/sec, a very high velocity in view of the predominance of Upper Cretaceous rocks. Precambrian basement with a velocity of 6.25 km/sec underlies the profile at depths ranging from 3.5 to 4.5 km. Strong second arrivals across the profile, observed at distances of more than 14 km from the shotpoints and interpreted as SP reflections, verified the refraction model. An aeromagnetic survey shows numerous anomalies ranging from 100 to 200γ in the Park and Rabbit Ears Ranges and in the Never Summer Mountains, to 400γ in the Front Range, and to 1200γ over the Medicine Bow Range. Positive anomalies in the Park, Medicine Bow, and Front ranges overlie metamorphic rocks. Magnetic and gravity data suggest that the Never Summer Mountains are separated from the Front Range by a north-trending, steeply east-dipping reverse fault, extending beneath the Front Range along the Colorado River valley. The magnetic data indicate that this fault may connect with a possible fault that is parallel to the Laramie River valley. In the Rabbit Ears Range, a series of magnetic anomalies show that igneous rocks are present in the eastern part of the range. A northeast-trending positive magnetic anomaly, which is parallel to foliation trends reported in Precambrian rocks, extends from the Park Range across the North Park basin to the Medicine Bow Range. On the basis of this anomaly, the high seismic velocity of the Precambrian basement, and computed profiles fitted to the gravity and magnetic data, we infer that much of the basin is underlain by high-density metamorphic rock. As shown by gravity data, the deepest part of the basin is 2.7 km below sea level, resulting in a maximum relief of 6.7 km on the basement, relative to the Medicine Bow Range. A 25-mgal negative gravity anomaly and a zone of negative magnetic anomalies outline a large granitic intrusion in the Park Range, which probably extends northeast beneath the North Park basin and connects with granitic rocks in the Medicine Bow Range.

Colorado

The geophysical character of southern Alaska - Implications for crustal evolution

The southern Alaska continental margin has undergone a long and complicated history of plate convergence, subduction, accretion, and margin-parallel displacements. The crustal character of this continental margin is discernible through combined analysis of aeromagnetic and gravity data with key constraints from previous seismic interpretation. Regional magnetic data are particularly useful in defining broad geophysical domains. One of these domains, the south Alaska magnetic high, is the focus of this study. It is an intense and continuous magnetic high up to 200 km wide and ∼1500 km long extending from the Canadian border in the Wrangell Mountains west and southwest through Cook Inlet to the Bering Sea shelf. Crustal thickness beneath the south Alaska magnetic high is commonly 40–50 km. Gravity analysis indicates that the south Alaska magnetic high crust is dense. The south Alaska magnetic high spatially coincides with the Peninsular and Wrangellia terranes. The thick, dense, and magnetic character of this domain requires significant amounts of mafic rocks at intermediate to deep crustal levels. In Wrangellia these mafic rocks are likely to have been emplaced during Middle and (or) Late Triassic Nikolai Greenstone volcanism. In the Peninsular terrane, the most extensive period of mafic magmatism now known was associated with the Early Jurassic Talkeetna Formation volcanic arc. Thus the thick, dense, and magnetic character of the south Alaska magnetic high crust apparently developed as the response to mafic magmatism in both extensional (Wrangellia) and subduction-related arc (Peninsular terrane) settings. The south Alaska magnetic high is therefore a composite crustal feature. At least in Wrangellia, the crust was probably of average thickness (30 km) or greater prior to Triassic mafic magmatism. Up to 20 km (40%) of its present thickness may be due to the addition of Triassic mafic magmas. Throughout the south Alaska magnetic high, significant crustal growth was caused by the addition of mafic magmas at intermediate to deep crustal levels.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America