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Summary of regional geology, petroleum potential, resource assessment and environmental considerations for oil and gas lease sale area #56

This report summarizes our general knowledge of the petroleum potential, as well as problems and hazards associated with development of petroleum resources in the area proposed for nominations for lease sale number 56. This area includes the U.S. eastern continental margin from the North Carolina-Virginia border south to approximately Cape Canaveral, Florida and from three miles from shore, seaward to include the upper Continental Slope and inner Blake Plateau. The area for possible sales is shown in figure 1; major physiographic features of the region are shown in figure 2. No wells have been drilled for petroleum within this proposed lease area and no significant commercial production has been obtained onshore in the Southeast Georgia Embayment. The COST GE-1 stratigraphic test well, drilled on the Continental Shelf off Jacksonville, Fla. (fig- 1), reached basement at 3,300 m. The bottom third of the section consists of dominantly continental rocks that are typically poor sources of petroleum (Scholle, 1979) and the rocks that contain organic carbon adequate for generation of petroleum at the well are seen in seismic profiles always at shallow subbottom depths, so they probably have not reached thermal maturity. However, seismic profiles indicate that the sedimentary deposits thicken markedly in a seaward direction where more of the section was deposited under marine conditions; therefore, commercial accumulations of petroleum offshore are more likely. Several potential sources of environmental hazard exist. Among the most important are hurricanes, the Gulf Stream, and earthquakes. The potential danger from high wind, waves, storm surges, and storm-driven currents associated with hurricanes is obvious. Evidence for significant bottom scour by the Gulf Stream is abundant; such scour is a threat to the stability of bottom-mounted structures. The fast-flowing water also will hamper floating drill rigs and control of drill strings. A major earthquake of about magnitude 6.8 struck Charleston in 1886; it may have been associated with a zone of active seismicity that crosses South Carolina. The likelihood of a repetition of the 1886 event is presently not predictable but a seismic hazard must be assumed to exist.

Open-File Report

Nekton community dynamics within active and inactive deltas in a major river estuary: Potential implications for altered hydrology regimes

High fisheries production within estuaries is associated with coastal upwelling, tidal mixing, and land-based runoff facing increasing impacts from climate and human activities. Active river deltas receive large riverine inflows compared to inactive river deltas, providing contrasting estuaries to compare impacts of river inflow on estuarine nekton. We quantified nekton assemblages and stable isotopes (δ 13 C, δ 15 N) of commercially important blue crab Callinectes sapidus Rathbun, 1896 within an active and inactive delta in coastal Louisiana to explore the impacts of differing riverine inflow. Crustaceans dominated estuarine assemblages, differing only by season and not delta type, with summer and fall supporting highest densities. Fish density and assemblages differed by the interaction of season and delta due to differences during the 2019 record high spring river inflow. During this period, the active delta supported reduced fish densities and richness compared to the inactive delta. Nekton densities across deltas and seasons reflect a combination of species life history characteristics and habitat conditions. The high spring river discharge in 2019 impacted habitat availability (reduced presence of submerged aquatic vegetation), water conditions (decreased temperature and salinity), and potentially displaced nekton to unsampled habitat areas (i.e. interior marsh surface) within the active delta. While differences in nekton density and assemblages were only evident during the high spring river discharge, δ 15 N values of blue crabs were approximately 1.5 times higher in the active delta, potentially indicating more terrestrial influence. Understanding how altered inflow impacts environmental variables supporting estuarine nekton production remains critical for supporting management within these hydrologically managed regions.

Louisiana

Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology

Phenological events – defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal – have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism – the tendency for closely related spe-cies to share similar ecological and biological attributes – in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing ~4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the setof included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrastingmean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of yearthat is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses. Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conser ved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species’ shared evolutionary histories.

Journal of Ecology

Preparation and characterization of nickel-spiked freshwater sediments for toxicity tests: toward more environmentally realistic nickel partitioning

Two spiking methods were compared and nickel (Ni) partitioning was evaluated during a series of toxicity tests with 8 different freshwater sediments having a range of physicochemical characteristics. A 2-step spiking approach with immediate pH adjustment by addition of NaOH at a 2:1 molar ratio to the spiked Ni was effective in producing consistent pH and other chemical characteristics across a range of Ni spiking levels. When Ni was spiked into sediment having a high acid-volatile sulfide and organic matter content, a total equilibration period of at least 10 wk was needed to stabilize Ni partitioning. However, highest spiking levels evidently exceeded sediment binding capacities; therefore, a 7-d equilibration in toxicity test chambers and 8 volume-additions/d of aerobic overlying water were used to avoid unrealistic Ni partitioning during toxicity testing. The 7-d pretest equilibration allowed excess spiked Ni and other ions from pH adjustment to diffuse from sediment porewater and promoted development of an environmentally relevant, 0.5- to 1-cm oxic/suboxic sediment layer in the test chambers. Among the 8 different spiked sediments, the logarithm of sediment/porewater distribution coefficient values (log K d ) for Ni during the toxicity tests ranged from 3.5 to 4.5. These K d values closely match the range of values reported for various field Ni-contaminated sediments, indicating that testing conditions with our spiked sediments were environmentally realistic.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Non-invasive exploration in an environmentally sensitive world

Modern remote sensing provides a means for locating and characterizing exposed mineralized systems in many parts of the world. These capabilities are non-invasive and help target specific areas for more detailed exploration. An example of how remote sensing technology can be used is evident from a study of the Questa Mining District, New Mexico. Analysis of low spectral resolution data from the Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite system clearly shows the regional distribution of two broad mineral groups often associated with mineralized systems: clay-carbonate-sulfate and iron oxides-iron hydroxides. Analysis of high spectral resolution data from the Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging System (AVIRIS) shows the occurrence and distribution of many individual mineral species that characterize the pattern of hydrothermally altered rocks in the district.

Conference Paper

Small creatures, big challenge: A review of current knowledge and assessment of research needs to inform water withdrawal management for the Duck River's freshwater mussel fauna

The Duck River is a remarkable national resource, boasting outstanding biodiversity (Ahlstedt et al. 2017). It contains 151 fish species, over 60 mussel species, and 22 snail species, many of which are federally listed (Etnier and Starnes 1993; Johnson et al. 2013; Ahlstedt et al. 2017; Womble and Rosenberger 2025a). The Duck River watershed is at a pivotal time in its management and ecological history due to significant growth in human population and economic activity. The consequent increase in surface water demand presents challenges for sustainable water resource management. The Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) has permitted or proposed to permit eight water utilities to withdraw over 77 million gallons per day (mgd) from the Duck River, representing > 40% increase from previously permitted amounts (USFWS 2025). On November 20, 2024, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed Executive Order No 108 to ensure long-term stability of the Duck River watershed through balancing economic growth, water resource management, and environmental conservation. Some primary components of this plan are the creation of a Comprehensive Regional Drought Management Plan, the development of a Habitat Conservation Plan, and the establishment of the Duck River Watershed Planning Partnership (DRWPP). Although the planning partnership is not focused on a sole aspect of the Duck River, but the watershed as a whole, the mussel assemblages of the Duck River have been a particular focus due to their importance in providing ecosystem services, sensitivity to water quality, conservation status, and sensitivity to periodic drought conditions in this system. With multiple state and federal agencies involved in managing the Duck River’s unique water resources, a focused review on how future water management could affect the freshwater mussel communities in the Duck River will contribute to this process. Our objectives of this review are to: 1. Review the effects of changing flow regimes on mussels, with emphasis on the effect of droughts/low flows, highlighting key processes/factors affecting mussels. 2. Highlight critical data gaps that could allow future, evidence-based water management decisions in this system. 3. Propose research topics to address critical data gaps and enable evidence-based water management decisions that consider the needs of freshwater mussels. Freshwater mussels are a critical component of riverine ecosystems, providing ecosystem services including water filtration, nutrient cycling, and habitat provision (Vaughn et al. 2004; Haag 2012) that benefit human communities. Environmental flows, also referred to as ecological or e-flows, refer to the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows necessary to maintain the ecological health of rivers, wetlands, and other aquatic ecosystems (Acreman and Dunbar 2004; Acreman 2016). For freshwater mussels, environmental flows include maintaining a flow regime and associated water quality regimes that are favorable for both juveniles and adults while also seasonally supporting host fish and the survival of settling glochidia (i.e., larval mussels) in suitable environments (Gates et al. 2015). Freshwater mussels are adapted to the natural flow regime of their native streams, including seasonal variability in flows. As sedentary filter feeders, mussels require adequate water flow to provide oxygen and food (Allen and Vaughn 2009); however, they also require periods of low flow to increase access to fish hosts and to ensure juveniles are not displaced (Gates et al 2015). Mussels are sensitive to water quality conditions, including pollutants, sedimentation, and artificial alterations of temperature and pH (Strayer and Malcom 2012). Mussel community characteristics, including presence, abundance, and species richness, generally increase with stream size (e.g., stream order); however, responses to changes in flow conditions are often species-specific, and the magnitude and timing of extreme flow conditions have more predictive power for mussel community response than general changes in flow (Lopez and Vaughn 2021). Complex hydraulic variables, such as relative shear stress and Reynolds number, can be strong predictors of mussel community responses because they combine simple hydraulic variables (e.g., velocity, depth) with stream channel characteristics, such as substrate composition and dynamics. Droughts directly and indirectly affect mussels by influencing their physiology, behavior, reproduction, and ecosystem roles. Mass mussel die-offs during droughts and low water conditions are widely documented (Vaughn et al. 2015; Sousa et al. 2018; Dubose et al. 2019). Droughts can also lead to a shift in mussel community composition, with drought-tolerant species becoming more dominant while more sensitive species experience declines (Galbraith et al, 2010; Lopez et al. 2022; Vaughn and Atkinson 2025). Droughts affect mussels through direct mortality from stranding as well as physiological stress from altered water temperature and quality, reduced habitat and food availability and quality, increased predation and competition, disruption of reproductive cycles, and increased susceptibility to disease and pathogens. Although the effects of droughts, water withdrawals, and low flow conditions on mussels are an increasing area of study, there is a general paucity of data-driven consensus regarding optimal mitigation approaches and strategies (Cushway et al. 2024). Long-term management decisions regarding water withdrawals, particularly during extended or multi-year drought conditions, may consider factors beyond direct mortality such as the sublethal effects of drought and low flow conditions on freshwater mussels for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of prolonged low flows on freshwater mussels and aquatic communities.

Tennessee

Method for determination of methyl tert-butyl ether and its degradation products in water

An analytical method is described that can detect the major alkyl ether compounds that are used as gasoline oxygenates (methyl tert-butyl ether, MTBE; ethyl tert-butyl ether, ETBE; and tert-amyl methyl ether, TAME) and their most characteristic degradation products (tert-butyl alcohol, TBA; tert-butyl formate, TBF; and tert-amyl alcohol, TAA) in water at sub-ppb concentrations. The new method involves gas chromatography (GC) with direct aqueous injection (DAI) onto a polar column via a splitless injector, coupled with detection by mass spectrometry (MS). DAI-GC/MS gives excellent agreement with conventional purge-and-trap methods for MTBE over a wide range of environmentally relevant concentrations. The new method can also give simultaneous identification of polar compounds that might occur as degradation products of gasoline oxygenates, such as TBA, TBF, TAA, methyl acetate, and acetone. When the method was applied to effluent from a column microcosm prepared with core material from an urban site in New Jersey, conversion of MTBE to TBA was observed after a lag period of 35 days. However, to date, analyses of water samples from six field sites using the DAI-GC/MS method have not produced evidence for the expected products of in situ degradation of MTBE.An analytical method is described that can detect the major alkyl ether compounds that are used as gasoline oxygenates (methyl tert-butyl ether, MTBE; ethyl tert-butyl ether, ETBE; and tert-amyl methyl ether, TAME) and their most characteristic degradation products (tert-butyl alcohol, TBA; tert-butyl formate, TBF; and tert-amyl alcohol, TAA) in water at sub-ppb concentrations. The new method involves gas chromatography (GC) with direct aqueous injection (DAI) onto a polar column via a splitless injector, coupled with detection by mass spectrometry (MS). DAI-GC/MS gives excellent agreement with conventional purge-and-trap methods for MTBE over a wide range of environmentally relevant concentrations. The new method can also give simultaneous identification of polar compounds that might occur as degradation products of gasoline oxygenates, such as TBA, TBF, TAA, methyl acetate, and acetone. When the method was applied to effluent from a column microcosm prepared with core material from an urban site in New Jersey, conversion of MTBE to TBA was observed after a lag period of 35 days. However, to date, analyses of water samples from six field sites using the DAI-GC/MS method have not produced evidence for the expected products of in situ degradation of MTBE.

Environmental Science & Technology

Can we avert an Amazon tipping point? The economic and environmental costs

The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts and trade-offs of scenarios representing movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM + ESM). Our approach provides the first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of a tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. For the five Amazon focal countries, namely, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador, we find that a tipping point would create economic losses of US$256.6 billion in cumulative gross domestic product by 2050. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in intensifying agriculture in cleared lands, climate-adapted agriculture and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth and a return on investment of US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can support the design of regional development strategies for the Amazon biome, build the business case for action and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable policy implementation.

Amazon

Resources to inform the 2026 Colorado Climate Preparedness Roadmap: Compound hazards and associated public health implications

Changing environmental conditions are increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather and environmental hazards, including heat waves, wildfires, drought, reduced water quality, and degraded air quality from ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter pollution (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Bolinger et al., 2024; Colorado Health Institute, 2023a; Fann et al., 2015; IPCC, 2023a; Nagamoto et al., 2024; Nolte et al., 2018, 2021; Zscheischler et al., 2020). Strong scientific evidence indicates that climate change will increase risks to public health and safety throughout the 21st century, particularly through compound climate events (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Cascio, 2018; Childs et al., 2022; Ebi, 2025; IPCC, 2023a, 2023b; Ma et al., 2024; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Reid et al., 2016; Reid & Maestas, 2019; Simpson et al., 2023; van den Hurk et al., 2023; Volckens, 2024; Zscheischler et al., 2018, 2020). Compound hazards, which are co-occurring or sequential hazards such as heat waves occurring alongside drought, wildfire, and poor air quality from smoke, can amplify public health risks beyond the effects of individual hazards alone (Marlier et al., 2026; Zscheischler et al., 2020). In Colorado, compound climate events with clear implications for public health are already evident (see “Core definitions” section for additional context on compound climate events). Recent statewide assessments have documented increasing heat waves, drought, and wildfires linked to rising temperatures, while emerging data show that climate change is reversing decades of air quality improvements through increased O3 and fine particulate matter pollution due to wildfire, and increased aerosolized topsoil (i.e., dust) due to drought (Bolinger et al., 2024; Childs et al., 2022; Fann et al., 2015; Ghanbari et al., 2023; Larsen et al., 2022; Nolte et al., 2018, 2021; Volckens, 2024). These environmental shifts are associated with increases in eye and kidney-health related concerns, heat-related illness, exacerbations of asthma and other respiratory conditions, increased risk of infectious disease, cardiovascular stress, and mental health impacts, with disparities in risk for children, older adults, outdoor workers, and communities with existing health and economic vulnerabilities (Baraghoshi et al., 2023; Butler-Dawson et al., 2026; Cascio, 2018; Cleland et al., 2022; Colorado Health Institute, 2023a; Grover et al., 2024; Lee et al., 2023; Ma et al., 2024; Macaluso et al., 2024; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Patnaik et al., 2024; Peters et al., 2019; Reid et al., 2016; Reid & Maestas, 2019). The state is actively pursuing strategies to mitigate the risks of these compound climate events on the public, including expanding climate and health surveillance, strengthening early-warning systems and public communication around smoke and air quality, and developing integrated policy agendas that link climate mitigation, adaptation, and health equity (CDPHE, 2025; Colorado Health Institute, 2023b; Zemaitis & Bailey, 2024). For example, state and partner organizations have articulated cross-sector goals to prepare for health impacts related to extreme heat, wildfires, flooding, drought, declines in water quality, and poor air quality, including updating workplace safety protocols, enhancing community-based resilience, adapting clinical care assessments to include climate-related stressors, and improving access to mental and behavioral health services following climate-related disasters (Colorado Health Institute, 2023b; CDPHE, 2025; Zemaitis & Bailey, 2024). To better prepare for current risks and make informed decisions, more information is needed, including methods to analyze historical and projected conditions in near real time, characterize interactions among compound hazards, and translate climate and air quality science into actionable guidance for public health agencies, health care systems, and communities across Colorado (Ebi, 2025; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Simpson et al., 2023; Zscheischler et al., 2018). For this report, we focus on extreme heat and outdoor air quality (ozone [O3] and fine particulate matter [PM2.5]) as the main compound hazards causing compound climate events, given that 1) the state of Colorado has experienced poor air quality for some time, 2) these climate events are affecting large population numbers, and 3) there is capacity to consider and respond to these climate-driven events.

Colorado

Restoration treatments enhance tree growth and alter climatic constraints during extreme drought

The frequency and severity of drought events are predicted to increase due to anthropogenic climate change, with cascading effects across forested ecosystems. Management activities such as forest thinning and prescribed burning, which are often intended to mitigate fire hazard and restore ecosystem processes, may also help promote tree resistance to drought. However, it is unclear whether these treatments remain effective during the most severe drought conditions or whether their impacts differ across environmental gradients. We used tree-ring data from a system of replicated, long-term (>20 years) experiments in the southwestern United States to evaluate the effects of forest restoration treatments (i.e., evidence-based thinning and burning) on annual growth rates (i.e., basal area increment; BAI) of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), a broadly distributed and heavily managed species in western North America. The study sites were established at the onset of the most extreme drought event in at least 1200 years and span much of the climatic niche of Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine. Across sites, tree-level BAI increased due to treatment, where trees in treated units grew 133.1% faster than trees in paired, untreated units. Likewise, trees in treated units grew an average of 85.6% faster than their pre-treatment baseline levels (1985 to ca. 2000), despite warm, dry conditions in the post-treatment period (ca. 2000–2018). Variation in the local competitive environment promoted variation in BAI, and larger trees were the fastest-growing individuals, irrespective of treatment. Tree thinning and prescribed fire altered the climatic constraints on growth, decreasing the effects of belowground moisture availability and increasing the effects of atmospheric evaporative demand over multi-year timescales. Our results illustrate that restoration treatments can enhance tree-level growth across sites spanning ponderosa pine's climatic niche, even during recent, extreme drought events. However, shifting climatic constraints, combined with predicted increases in evaporative demand in the southwestern United States, suggest that the beneficial effects of such treatments on tree growth may wane over the upcoming decades.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas

Estimating toxic damage to soil ecosystems from soil organic matter profiles

Concentrations of particulate and total organic matter were measured in upper soil profiles at 26 sites as a potential means to identify toxic damage to soil ecosystems. Because soil organic matter plays a role in cycling nutrients, aerating soil, retaining water, and maintaining tilth, a significant reduction in organic matter content in a soil profile is not just evidence of a change in ecosystem function, but of damage to that soil ecosystem. Reference sites were selected for comparison to contaminated sites, and additional sites were selected to illustrate how variables other than environmental contaminants might affect the Soil organic matter profile. The survey was undertaken on the supposition that environmental contaminants and other stressors reduce the activity of earthworms and other macrofauna, inhibiting the incorporation of organic matter into the soil profile. The profiles of the unstressed soils showed a continuous decrease in organic matter content from the uppermost mineral soil layer (0-2.5 cm) down to 15 cm. Stressed soils showed an abrupt decrease in soil organic matter content below a depth of 2.5 cm. The 2.5-5.0 cm layer of stressed soils--such as found in a pine barren, an orchard, sites contaminated with zinc, and a site with compacted soil--had less than 4% total organic matter and less than 1% particulate organic matter. However, damaged soil ecosystems were best identified by comparison of their profiles to the profiles of closely matched reference soils, rather than by comparison to these absolute values. The presence or absence of earthworms offered a partial explanation of observed differences in soil organic matter profiles.

Ecotoxicology

Diverse aging rates in ectothermic tetrapods provide insights for the evolution of aging and longevity

Comparative studies of mortality in the wild are necessary to understand the evolution of aging; yet, ectothermic tetrapods are underrepresented in this comparative landscape, despite their suitability for testing evolutionary hypotheses. We present a study of aging rates and longevity across wild tetrapod ectotherms, using data from 107 populations (77 species) of nonavian reptiles and amphibians. We test hypotheses of how thermoregulatory mode, environmental temperature, protective phenotypes, and pace of life history contribute to demographic aging. Controlling for phylogeny and body size, ectotherms display a higher diversity of aging rates compared with endotherms and include phylogenetically widespread evidence of negligible aging. Protective phenotypes and life-history strategies further explain macroevolutionary patterns of aging. Analyzing ectothermic tetrapods in a comparative context enhances our understanding of the evolution of aging.

Science

Rodentia and lagomorpha

This comprehensive review examines the extensive literature on wild rodents and lagomorphs as biomonitors of environmental contamination. This chapter covers studies dealing with exposure and effects of environmental contaminants on rodent and lagomorph species, including pesticides (organochlorines, organophosphorus and carbamate compounds, herbicides, plant growth regulators, fungicides, and rodenticides), other organic chemicals, metals, radionuclides, and other miscellaneous contaminants. Many research needs become evident when reviewing ecotoxicological data for rodents and lagomorphs, the most striking being the paucity of information on rodent families other than Muridae (mice and rats). While our ability to qualitatively extrapolate effects observed in laboratory studies to field situations is good for a variety of contaminants, quantitative predictions of dose-response relationships are poor because inter-specific variation and differences in exposure patterns between laboratory and wild species to toxicants are for the most part unknown. More sophisticated comparative toxicity studies need to be undertaken that build on previous work in order to develop a database of information, to account for and model differences in exposure pathways, to document interactions among multiple stressors, to generate data establishing thresholds, critical concentrations, and diagnostic guidelines, and even to develop physiologically-based toxicokinetic models. Such efforts may enhance our ability to predict effects on wild populations, including threatened and endangered species.

Book chapter

Quantifying changes and influences on mottled duck density in Texas

Understanding the relative influence of environmental and intrinsic effects on populations is important for managing and conserving harvested species, especially those species inhabiting changing environments. Additionally, climate change can increase the uncertainty associated with management of species in these changing environments, making understanding factors affecting their populations even more important. Coastal ecosystems are particularly threatened by climate change; the combined effects of increasing severe weather events, sea level rise, and drought will likely have non-linear effects on coastal marsh wildlife species and their associated habitats. A species of conservation concern that persists in these coastal areas is the mottled duck ( Anas fulvigula ). Mottled ducks in the western Gulf Coast are approximately 50% below target abundance numbers established by the Gulf Coast Joint Venture for Texas and Louisiana, USA. Although evidence for declines in mottled duck abundance is apparent, specific causes of the decrease remain unknown. Our goals were to determine where the largest declines in mottled duck population were occurring along the system of Texas Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuges and quantify the relative contribution of environmental and intrinsic effects on changes to relative population density. We modeled aerial survey data of mottled duck density along the Texas Gulf Coast from 1986–2015 to quantify effects of extreme weather events on an index to mottled duck density using the United States Climate Extremes Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Our results indicate that decreases in abundance are best described by an increase in days with extreme 1-day precipitation from June to November (hurricane season) and an increase in drought severity. Better understanding those portions of the life cycle affected by environmental conditions, and how to manage mottled duck habitat in conjunction with these events will likely be key to persistence of the species under future environmental conditions.

Texas

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

A frequent assumption in ecology is that biotic interactions are more important than abiotic factors in determining lower elevational range limits (i.e., the “warm edge” of a species distribution). However, for species with narrow environmental tolerances, theory suggests the presence of a strong environmental gradient can lead to persistence, even in the presence of competition. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors is rarely considered together, although understanding when one exerts a dominant influence on controlling range limits may be crucial to predicting extinction risk under future climate conditions. We sampled multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of Plethodon shenandoah and site and climate covariates were recorded. A two‐species conditional occupancy model, accommodating heterogeneity in detection probability, was used to relate variation in occupancy with environmental and habitat conditions. Regional climate data were combined with datalogger observations to estimate the cloud base heights and to project future climate change impacts on cloud elevations across the survey area. By simultaneously accounting for species’ interactions and habitat variables, we find that elevation, not competition, is strongly correlated with the lower elevation range boundary, which had been presumed to be restricted mainly as a result of competitive interactions with a congener. Because the lower elevational range limit is sensitive to climate variables, projected climate change across its high‐elevation habitats will directly affect the species’ distribution. Testing assumptions of factors that set species range limits should use models which accommodate detection biases.

Virginia

Observations of large-amplitude cross-shore internal bores near the shelf break, Santa Monica Bay, CA

Two sets of moorings were deployed along a cross-shelf transect in central Santa Monica bay for four months in the winter of 1998-1999. Both sites had an array of instruments attached to tripods set on the seafloor to monitor currents over the entire water column, surface waves, near-bed temperature, water clarity and suspended sediment. A companion mooring had temperature sensors spaced approximately 10 m apart to measure temperature profiles between the surface and the seafloor. One array was deployed in 70 m of water at a site adjacent to the shelf break, just northwest of a major ocean outfall. The other was deployed on the mid shelf in 35 m of water approximately 6 km from the shelf break site. The subtidal currents in the region flowed parallel to the isobaths with fluctuating time scales around 10 days, a typical coastal-ocean pattern. However, during the falling phase of the barotropic spring tide, sets of large-amplitude, sheared cross-shore current pulses with a duration of 2-5 h were observed at the shelf break site. Currents in these pulses flowed exclusively offshore in a thin layer near the bed with amplitudes reaching 30-40 cm/s. Simultaneously, currents with amplitudes around 15-20 cm/s flowed exclusively onshore in the thicker layer between the offshore flow layer and the sea surface. The net offshore transport was about half the onshore transport. Near-surface isotherms were depressed 30-40 m. These pulses were likely internal bores generated by tidal currents. Bed stresses associated with these events exceeded 3 dynes/cm2. These amplitudes are large enough to resuspend and transport not only fine-grained material, but also medium to coarse sands from the shelf toward the slope. Consequently, the seafloor over the shelf break was swept clear of fine sediments. The data suggest that the internal bores dissipate and are reduced in amplitude as they propagate across this relatively narrow shelf. There is evidence that they reach the 35 m site, but other coastal ocean processes obscure their distinctive characteristics.

Marine Environmental Research

Review of Trace Element Blank and Replicate Data Collected in Ground and Surface Water for the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 1991-2002

The trace elements Sb, Be, and Tl in ground water and Sb, Be, Co, Mo, and U in surface water are unaffected by contamination. Limited quality control data (blanks) for Li and V in ground water and surface water do not allow for a good assessment on the potential contamination associated with these trace elements. Potential contamination was identified for Al, As, Ba, B, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb, Mn, Ni, Se, Ag, Sr, and Zn in ground water and surface water. Evidence of potential contamination was shown for Co, Mo, and U in ground water; potential contamination was shown for T1 in surface water. In comparing the potential contamination for these trace elements with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) drinking-water standards, the contamination for most of these trace elements is less than 10 percent of the drinking-water standard; therefore, contamination would have little or no effect when comparing trace element concentrations with the USEPA drinking-water standards. The exceptions are Al, Cd, and possibly Pb in ground water, and As and possibly Pb in surface water. Potential contamination identified for these trace elements is greater than 10 percent of the USEPA drinking-water standard, but affects only 5 percent or less of the As, Cd, and Pb samples. For most trace elements, the level of potential contamination is not large enough to significantly affect the measured concentration of the environmental sample. The exceptions may be Fe in ground water and Al in surface water, which have concentrations for at least 10 percent of the environmental samples that exceeded the USEPA drinking-water standards. Sample variability for some of the trace elements could not be determined because there were either no detected concentrations, or there were less than 10 replicate sets with detected concentrations. These trace elements are Be, Ag, and Tl for ground water and Sb, Be, Cr, Co, Pb, Ag, and Tl for surface water. For most trace elements, sample variability was less than 10 percent, which would have little or no affect on the reported concentrations. The exceptions are Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, Rn (at concentrations less than about 700 picocuries per liter), Se, and Zn in ground water and Cu, Se, and Zn in surface water, all of which have sample variability ranging from 10 to 20 percent. Sample variability should be considered when evaluating the potential error associated with a sample measurement. Collection of additional quality control samples for some of these trace elements to determine bias and variability is probably warranted particularly for those trace elements that the NAWQA Program did not begin sampling until 1998. Results obtained from the analysis of the quality control data can be applied to the interpretation of the environmental data collected from 1991 to 2002 and for water-quality data that are currently being collected as part of the NAWQA Program. More...

Scientific Investigations Report

Ground-water quality in the West Salt River Valley, Arizona, 1996–98 — Relations to hydrogeology, water use, and land use

The U.S. Geological Survey collected and analyzed ground-water samples in the West Salt River Valley from 64 existing wells selected by a stratified-random procedure. Samples from an areally distributed group of 35 of these wells were used to characterize overall ground-water quality in the basin-fill aquifer. Analytes included the principal inorganic constituents, trace constituents, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Additional analytes were tritium, radon, and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen. Analyses of replicate samples and blank samples provided evidence that the analyses of the ground-water samples were adequate for interpretation. The median concentration of dissolved solids in samples from the 35 wells was 560 milligrams per liter, which exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for drinking water. Eleven of the 35 samples had a nitrate concentration (as nitrogen) that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Level for drinking water of 10 milligrams per liter. Pesticides were detected in eight samples; concentrations were below the Maximum Contaminant Levels. Deethylatrazine was most commonly detected. The pesticides were detected in samples from wells in agricultural or urban areas that have been irrigated. Concentrations of all trace constituents, except arsenic, were less than the Maximum Contaminant Levels. The concentration of arsenic exceeded the Maximum Contaminant Level of 50 micrograms per liter in two samples. Nine monitoring wells were constructed in an area near Buckeye to assess the effects of agricultural land use on shallow ground water. The median concentration of dissolved solids was 3,340 milligrams per liter in samples collected from these wells in August 1997. The nitrate concentration (as nitrogen) exceeded the Maximum Contaminant Level (10 milligrams per liter) in samples from eight of the nine monitoring wells in August 1997 and again in February 1998. Analyses of all samples collected from the monitoring wells indicated low concentrations of pesticides and volatile organic compounds. The most frequently detected pesticides were deethylatrazine and atrazine. Trichloromethane (chloroform) and tetrachloroethene (PCE) were the most frequently detected volatile organic compounds in the monitoring wells. Two compounds [dieldrin and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-dichlorodiphenyl)ethylene (DDE)], decomposition products of two banned pesticides, aldrin and dichlorodiphenylethylene (DDT), were detected at low concentrations in samples analyzed for the agricultural land-use study. In the West Salt River Valley, a high concentration of the heavier oxygen isotope?oxygen-18?in ground water generally indicates effects of evaporation on recharge water from irrigation. Wells in undeveloped areas and wells that have openings beneath a confining bed generally yield ground water that is free of the effects of irrigation seepage. Samples from these wells did not contain detectable concentrations of pesticides. The median concentrations of nitrate (as nitrogen) and dissolved solids in samples from wells in undeveloped areas were 1.7 milligrams per liter and 257 milligrams per liter, respectively. The median concentrations of nitrate (as nitrogen) and dissolved solids in samples from wells that yield water from below confining beds were 2.0 and 747 milligrams per liter, respectively.

Arizona