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Horvitz-Thompson survey sample methods for estimating large-scale animal abundance

Large-scale surveys to estimate animal abundance can be useful for monitoring population status and trends, for measuring responses to management or environmental alterations, and for testing ecological hypotheses about abundance. However, large-scale surveys may be expensive and logistically complex. To ensure resources are not wasted on unattainable targets, the goals and uses of each survey should be specified carefully and alternative methods for addressing these objectives always should be considered. During survey design, the impoflance of each survey error component (spatial design, propofiion of detected animals, precision in detection) should be considered carefully to produce a complete statistically based survey. Failure to address these three survey components may produce population estimates that are inaccurate (biased low), have unrealistic precision (too precise) and do not satisfactorily meet the survey objectives. Optimum survey design requires trade-offs in these sources of error relative to the costs of sampling plots and detecting animals on plots, considerations that are specific to the spatial logistics and survey methods. The Horvitz-Thompson estimators provide a comprehensive framework for considering all three survey components during the design and analysis of large-scale wildlife surveys. Problems of spatial and temporal (especially survey to survey) heterogeneity in detection probabilities have received little consideration, but failure to account for heterogeneity produces biased population estimates. The goal of producing unbiased population estimates is in conflict with the increased variation from heterogeneous detection in the population estimate. One solution to this conflict is to use an MSE-based approach to achieve a balance between bias reduction and increased variation. Further research is needed to develop methods that address spatial heterogeneity in detection, evaluate the effects of temporal heterogeneity on survey objectives and optimize decisions related to survey bias and variance. Finally, managers and researchers involved in the survey design process must realize that obtaining the best survey results requires an interactive and recursive process of survey design, execution, analysis and redesign. Survey refinements will be possible as further knowledge is gained on the actual abundance and distribution of the population and on the most efficient techniques for detection animals.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Na

Habitat selection and movements of Piping Plover broods suggest a tradeoff between breeding stages

In precocial birds, adults select breeding areas using cues associated with habitat characteristics that are favorable for nesting success and chick survival, but there may be tradeoffs in habitat selection between these breeding stages. Here we describe habitat selection and intra-territory movements of 53 Piping Plover ( Charadrius melodus ) broods (320 observations) during the 2007–2008 breeding seasons on mainland- and island-shoreline habitats at Lake Sakakawea, North Dakota, USA. We used remotely sensed habitat characteristics to separately examine habitat selection and movements at two spatiotemporal scales to account for potential confounding effects of nest-site selection on brood-rearing habitat used. The scales used were (1) the entire brood-rearing period within available brood-rearing areas and (2) 2-day observation intervals within age-specific discrete habitat selection choice sets. Analyses at both scales indicated that broods selected areas which were non-vegetated, moderately level, and nearer to the shoreline. Rate of brood movement increased with age up to 5 days, then stabilized; broods that hatched >50 m away from the shoreline moved toward the shoreline. Brood movements were greater when they were in vegetated areas, when the brood-rearing area was of greater topographic complexity, and when broods aged 6–25 days were further away from the shoreline. Using inferences from our results and those of previously published work, we postulate how a potential tradeoff in habitat selection between nesting and brood-rearing can contribute to an ecological trap in a novel habitat. This work, in the context of published works, suggests that plover breeding habitat is a complex of both nesting and brood-rearing habitats and provides a basis for making remotely sensed abundance estimates of suitable breeding habitat for Piping Plovers.

North Dakota

Encapsulating model complexity and landscape-scale analyses of state-and-transition simulation models: an application of ecoinformatics and juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe ecosystems

State-and-transition simulation modeling relies on knowledge of vegetation composition and structure (states) that describe community conditions, mechanistic feedbacks such as fire that can affect vegetation establishment, and ecological processes that drive community conditions as well as the transitions between these states. However, as the need for modeling larger and more complex landscapes increase, a more advanced awareness of computing resources becomes essential. The objectives of this study include identifying challenges of executing state-and-transition simulation models, identifying common bottlenecks of computing resources, developing a workflow and software that enable parallel processing of Monte Carlo simulations, and identifying the advantages and disadvantages of different computing resources. To address these objectives, this study used the ApexRMS® SyncroSim software and embarrassingly parallel tasks of Monte Carlo simulations on a single multicore computer and on distributed computing systems. The results demonstrated that state-and-transition simulation models scale best in distributed computing environments, such as high-throughput and high-performance computing, because these environments disseminate the workloads across many compute nodes, thereby supporting analysis of larger landscapes, higher spatial resolution vegetation products, and more complex models. Using a case study and five different computing environments, the top result (high-throughput computing versus serial computations) indicated an approximate 96.6% decrease of computing time. With a single, multicore compute node (bottom result), the computing time indicated an 81.8% decrease relative to using serial computations. These results provide insight into the tradeoffs of using different computing resources when research necessitates advanced integration of ecoinformatics incorporating large and complicated data inputs and models. - See more at: http://aimspress.com/aimses/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=Environ2015030&flag=1#sthash.p1XKDtF8.dpuf

AIMS Environmental Science

Using larval trematodes that parasitize snails to evaluate a saltmarsh restoration project

We conducted a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study using larval digeneans infecting the California horn snail, Cerithidea californica, to evaluate the success of an ecological restoration project at Carpinteria Salt Marsh in California, USA. Digenean trematodes are parasites with complex life cycles requiring birds and other vertebrates as final hosts. We tested two hypotheses for prevalence and species richness of larval trematodes in C. californica: (1) prior to the restoration, sites to be restored would have lower trematode prevalence and species richness relative to unimpacted control sites, and (2) that these differences would diminish after restoration. The sites to be restored were initially degraded for trematode species. They had a mean trematode prevalence (12%) and species richness (4.5 species) that were lower than control sites (28% trematode prevalence and 7 species). Despite the differences in prevalence, the proportional representation of each trematode species in the total community was similar between sites to be restored and control sites. Over the six years following restoration, trematode prevalence nearly quadrupled at restored sites (43%) while the prevalence at control sites (26%) remained unchanged. In addition, species richness at restored sites doubled (9 species), while species richness at the control sites (7.8 species) did not change. Immediately after restoration, the relative abundance of trematode species using fishes as second intermediate hosts declined while those using molluscs as second intermediate hosts increased. Trematode communities at restored and control sites gradually returned to being similar. We interpret the increase in trematode prevalence and species richness at restored sites to be a direct consequence of changes in bird use of the restored habitat. This study demonstrates a new comparative technique for assessing wetlands, and while it does not supplant biotic surveys, it informs such taxonomic lists. Most importantly, it provides a synthetic quantification of the linkages among species in wetland food webs.

Ecological Applications

Urbanization and stream ecology: Diverse mechanisms of change

The field of urban stream ecology has evolved rapidly in the last 3 decades, and it now includes natural scientists from numerous disciplines working with social scientists, landscape planners and designers, and land and water managers to address complex, socioecological problems that have manifested in urban landscapes. Over the last decade, stream ecologists have met 3 times at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology (SUSE) to discuss current research, identify knowledge gaps, and promote future research collaborations. The papers in this special series on urbanization and stream ecology include both primary research studies and conceptual synthesis papers spurred from discussions at SUSE in May 2014. The themes of the meeting are reflected in the papers in this series emphasizing global differences in mechanisms and responses of stream ecosystems to urbanization and management solutions in diverse urban streams. Our hope is that this series will encourage continued interdisciplinary and collaborative research to increase the global understanding of urban stream ecology toward stream protection and restoration in urban landscapes.

Freshwater Science

DayCent-Chem simulations of ecological and biogeochemical processes of eight mountain ecosystems in the United States

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) cause complex responses in ecosystems, from fertilization to forest ecosystem decline, freshwater eutrophication to acidification, loss of soil base cations, and alterations of disturbance regimes. DayCent-Chem, an ecosystem simulation model that combines ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant dynamics with aqueous geochemical equilibrium calculations, was developed to address ecosystem responses to combined atmospheric N and S deposition. It is unique among geochemically-based models in its dynamic biological cycling of N and its daily timestep for investigating ecosystem and surface water chemical response to episodic events. The model was applied to eight mountainous watersheds in the United States. The sites represent a gradient of N deposition across locales, from relatively pristine to N-saturated, and a variety of ecosystem types and climates. Overall, the model performed best in predicting stream chemistry for snowmelt-dominated sites. It was more difficult to predict daily stream chemistry for watersheds with deep soils, high amounts of atmospheric deposition, and a large degree of spatial heterogeneity. DayCent-Chem did well in representing plant and soil carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes. Modeled stream nitrate (NO 3 - ) and ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentrations compared well with measurements at all sites, with few exceptions. Simulated daily stream sulfate (SO 4 2- ) concentrations compared well to measured values for sites where SO 4 2- deposition has been low and where SO 4 2- adsorption/desorption reactions did not seem to be important. The concentrations of base cations and silica in streams are highly dependent on the geochemistry and weathering rates of minerals in each catchment, yet these were rarely, if ever, known. Thus, DayCent-Chem could not accurately predict weathering products for some catchments. Additionally, few data were available for exchangeable soil cations or the magnitude of base cation deposition as a result of dry and fog inputs. The uncertainties related to weathering reactions, deposition, soil cation exchange capacity, and groundwater contributions influenced how well the simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and pH estimates compared to observed values. Daily discharge was well represented by the model for most sites. The chapters of this report describe the parameterization for each site and summarize model results for ecosystem variables, stream discharge, and stream chemistry. This intersite comparison exercise provided insight about important and possibly not well understood processes.

Scientific Investigations Report

Patch-occupancy models indicate human activity as major determinant of forest elephant Loxodonta cyclotis seasonal distribution in an industrial corridor in Gabon

The importance of human activity and ecological features in influencing African forest elephant ranging behaviour was investigated in the Rabi-Ndogo corridor of the Gamba Complex of Protected Areas in southwest Gabon. Locations in a wide geographical area with a range of environmental variables were selected for patch-occupancy surveys using elephant dung to assess seasonal presence and absence of elephants. Patch-occupancy procedures allowed for covariate modelling evaluating hypotheses for both occupancy in relation to human activity and ecological features, and detection probability in relation to vegetation density. The best fitting models for old and fresh dung data sets indicate that (1) detection probability for elephant dung is negatively related to the relative density of the vegetation, and (2) human activity, such as presence and infrastructure, are more closely associated with elephant distribution patterns than are ecological features, such as the presence of wetlands and preferred fresh fruit. Our findings emphasize the sensitivity of elephants to human disturbance, in this case infrastructure development associated with gas and oil production. Patch-occupancy methodology offers a viable alternative to current transect protocols for monitoring programs with multiple covariates.

Biological Conservation

Transdisciplinary application of the cross-scale resilience model

The cross-scale resilience model was developed in ecology to explain the emergence of resilience from the distribution of ecological functions within and across scales, and as a tool to assess resilience. We propose that the model and the underlying discontinuity hypothesis are relevant to other complex adaptive systems, and can be used to identify and track changes in system parameters related to resilience. We explain the theory behind the cross-scale resilience model, review the cases where it has been applied to non-ecological systems, and discuss some examples of social-ecological, archaeological/ anthropological, and economic systems where a cross-scale resilience analysis could add a quantitative dimension to our current understanding of system dynamics and resilience. We argue that the scaling and diversity parameters suitable for a resilience analysis of ecological systems are appropriate for a broad suite of systems where non-normative quantitative assessments of resilience are desired. Our planet is currently characterized by fast environmental and social change, and the cross-scale resilience model has the potential to quantify resilience across many types of complex adaptive systems.

Sustainability

The role of habitat heterogeneity and canyon processes in structuring sediment macrofaunal communities associated with hard substrate habitats in Norfolk Canyon, USA

Topographic and hydrodynamic complexity in submarine canyons promotes steep gradients in food availability and geophysical parameters which affect ecological assemblages and beta diversity. While habitat heterogeneity in submarine canyons is known to support diverse and abundant megafaunal communities, due to difficulty in sampling little is known about infaunal communities adjacent to hard substrate habitats, their contribution to canyon assemblages, and overall deep-sea diversity. Sediments were collected in three distinct habitat types: within Norfolk Canyon (western Atlantic) adjacent to hard substrate habitats including canyon walls and large boulders, along the main axis of the canyon, and on the adjacent continental slope to quantify macrofaunal (>300 μm) density, diversity and community composition, and sediment geochemical parameters including grain size, organic content, and stable isotope composition. While macrofaunal densities were similar among habitats sampled at comparable depths, diversity was higher near the hard substrate environments. Discrete communities were present in each habitat type, while annelid functional composition was similar between hard substrate adjacent and canyon axis habitats. Although diversity and abundance of hard substrate adjacent sediment communities did not change with depth, communities were driven by sediments with low organic matter content, whereas canyon and slope community assemblages were best explained by depth and higher organic content. Beta diversity among hard substrate adjacent sediments and canyon axis communities was high, with 27% of canyon taxa and 10% of regional taxa only occurring in hard substrate habitats. Given the thousands of submarine canyons worldwide, our results highlight the overall importance of substrate habitat heterogeneity within canyons in supporting deep-sea benthic diversity and suggest that both within-canyon and regional diversity are underestimated.

Norfolk Canyon

Linkages between temperature, macroinvertebrates, and young-of-year Coho Salmon growth in surface-water and groundwater streams

Ecological resources for fishes in stream food webs shift over space and time, providing a complex template of available resources that can be used for growth. We tracked water temperature in conjunction with young-of-year Coho Salmon size, growth, and diet in 2 streams with contrasting thermal regimes: a groundwater stream with colder temperatures and lower thermal variability all year and a surface-water stream with greater thermal variability and warmer summer temperatures more conducive to young-of-year salmon growth. We hypothesized that fry emergence would occur when rearing conditions are optimal for growth and that, all else being equal, summer fish growth will be greater in the surface-water stream. Previous work on Coho Salmon phenology in these streams showed that peak fry emergence occurred at the same time in early summer in both streams. We measured salmon fry emergence in relation to thermal variability and macroinvertebrate prey availability with subsequent tracking of somatic growth, diet, and body size during the 1 st year of life in both streams. Macroinvertebrate prey availability was highest overall in the colder and thermally-stable groundwater stream than the surface-water stream. Prey availability was particularly high in the thalweg drift during peak fry emergence in the groundwater stream. There was no difference in Coho Salmon diet composition between streams, which included invertebrates from benthic, drift, and riparian habitats. We found no differences in young-of-year Coho Salmon body size, growth, or consumption between streams. Overall, our results suggest that large differences in thermal regimes do not necessarily translate to large differences in young-of-year Coho Salmon size, growth, or diet. Many variables can influence fish growth, and there is not always a direct connection between spatial and temporal dimensions of environmental variability and their cascading effects on young-of-year Coho Salmon growth during the 1 st summer of life.

Freshwater Science

Hydrological connectivity for riverine fish: measurement challenges and research opportunities

In this review, we first summarize how hydrologic connectivity has been studied for riverine fish capable of moving long distances, and then identify research opportunities that have clear conservation significance. Migratory species, such as anadromous salmonids, are good model organisms for understanding ecological connectivity in rivers because the spatial scale over which movements occur among freshwater habitats is large enough to be easily observed with available techniques; they are often economically or culturally valuable with habitats that can be easily fragmented by human activities; and they integrate landscape conditions from multiple surrounding catchment(s) with in‐river conditions. Studies have focussed on three themes: (i) relatively stable connections (connections controlled by processes that act over broad spatio‐temporal scales >1000 km 2 and >100 years); (ii) dynamic connections (connections controlled by processes acting over fine to moderate spatio‐temporal scales ∼1–1000 km 2 and <1–100 years); and (iii) anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity, including actions that disrupt or enhance natural connections experienced by fish. We outline eight challenges to understanding the role of connectivity in riverine fish ecology, organized under three foci: (i) addressing the constraints of river structure; (ii) embracing temporal complexity in hydrologic connectivity; and (iii) managing connectivity for riverine fishes. Challenges include the spatial structure of stream networks, the force and direction of flow, scale‐dependence of connectivity, shifting boundaries, complexity of behaviour and life histories and quantifying anthropogenic influence on connectivity and aligning management goals. As we discuss each challenge, we summarize relevant approaches in the literature and provide additional suggestions for improving research and management of connectivity for riverine fishes. Specifically, we suggest that rapid advances are possible in the following arenas: (i) incorporating network structure and river discharge into analyses; (ii) increasing explicit consideration of temporal complexity and fish behaviour in the scope of analyses; and (iii) parsing degrees of human and natural influences on connectivity and defining acceptable alterations. Multiscale analyses are most likely to identify dominant patterns of connections and disconnections, and the appropriate scale at which to focus conservation activities.

Freshwater Biology

Geomorphology shapes relationships between animal communities and ecosystem function in large rivers

Understanding how the Earth's surface (i.e. ‘nature's stage') influences connections between biodiversity and ecosystem function (BEF) is a central objective in ecology. Despite recent calls to examine these connections at multiple trophic levels and at more complex and realistic scales, little is known about how landscape structure shapes BEF relationships among animal communities in nature. We coupled high-resolution habitat mapping with extensive field sampling to quantify connections among the geophysical habitat templet, invertebrate assemblages and secondary production in two large North American riverscapes. Patterns of sediment size governed invertebrate assemblage structure, with particularly strong effects on composition, richness and taxonomic and functional diversity. These relationships propagated to drive positive relationships between biodiversity and secondary production that were modified by scale, context-dependencies and anthropogenic modification. Finally, leveraging spatially-explicit descriptions of geophysical and biological properties, we uncovered distinct and nested spatial scales of biodiversity and secondary production, and suggest that multiple geophysical processes simultaneously influence these patterns at different scales. Together, our findings advance our understanding of relationships between the physical templet and patterns of BEF, and help to predict how perturbations to the Earth's surface may propagate to influence biodiversity and energy flux through food webs.

Oikos

Decision analysis to advance environmental sustainability

Decision analysis provides a robust framework for complex decisions related to environmental sustainability and conservation, including for energy and water, fisheries and wildlife management, agriculture, and climate change response. The complexities of these problems stem from their large scope and scale, which leads to multiple decision makers, stakeholders, rightsholders, and other entities with potentially competing objectives. These problems often are time limited (e.g., urgent action is required to prevent species’ extinction), involve management interventions over long time scales and delayed responses to management (deep uncertainty), and are impeded by limited resources (funding, capacity, etc.). In this Special Issue on “Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability,” we present five case studies of applications of decision analysis to complex problems in environmental sustainability and conservation. These case studies incorporate multiple objectives related to ecological and environmental sustainability, economic and social concerns, and logistics of implementation. They showcase a wide range of tools and applications to these problems. We also provide suggestions for new avenues of research and application of decision analysis to problems of environmental sustainability and conservation, including how to incorporate other decision-making tools into decision analysis processes, how to broaden the reach of decision analysis to other sustainability problems, how to incorporate more stakeholders and rightsholders into the decision process, the potential to incorporate new technology into these processes, identifying more creative alternatives, how to secure more funding, ways to move from decision to action, and how to move beyond status quo to make big transitions necessary to achieve sustainability.

Decision Analysis

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream&ndash;terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream&ndash;riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO 2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream&ndash;terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic homogenization. Our conceptual framework based on the match&ndash;mismatch between donor and recipient organisms may facilitate understanding of the multiple effects of global change and aid in the development of future research questions.

Global Change Biology

Ecological correlates of fish movement in a network of Virginia streams

Identifying factors that influence fish movement is a key step in predicting how populations respond to environmental change. Using mark-recapture (four species) and trap capture (eight species) data, we examined relationships between three attributes of movement and 15 ecological variables. The probability of emigrating from a reach was positively related to intermittency (one species) and body size (one species) and negatively related to distance from the mainstem creek (two species) and habitat complexity (one species). The number of fish moving upstream through traps was positively related to increases in flow (five species), day length (three species), and water temperature (two species); the number moving through downstream traps was positively associated with increases in flow (three species). Distance moved was greater for fish moving through unsuitable reaches (one species). Floods have a pervasive effect on fish movement, and human activities that affect flows will have widespread implications. The importance of other factors varies interspecifically, which may translate into variation in persistence and colonization rates. For example, species that exhibit reach fidelity in complex habitats may increase movement if habitats are homogenized. These species may suffer population declines because of the cost of increased movement and may ultimately be replaced by ecological generalists.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Thermal onset of cellular and endocrine stress responses correspond to ecological limits in brook trout, an iconic cold-water fish

Climate change is predicted to change the distribution and abundance of species, yet underlying physiological mechanisms are complex and methods for detecting populations at risk from rising temperature are poorly developed. There is increasing interest in using physiological mediators of the stress response as indicators of individual and population-level response to environmental stressors. Here, we use laboratory experiments to show that the temperature thresholds in brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) for increased gill heat shock protein-70 (20.7&deg;C) and plasma glucose (21.2&deg;C) are similar to their proposed thermal ecological limit of 21.0&deg;C. Field assays demonstrated increased plasma glucose, cortisol and heat shock protein-70 concentrations at field sites where mean daily temperature exceeded 21.0&deg;C. Furthermore, population densities of brook trout were lowest at field sites where temperatures were warm enough to induce a stress response, and a co-occurring species with a higher thermal tolerance showed no evidence of physiological stress at a warm site. The congruence of stress responses and proposed thermal limits supports the use of these thresholds in models of changes in trout distribution under climate change scenarios and suggests that the induction of the stress response by elevated temperature may play a key role in driving the distribution of species.

Conservation Physiology

Successful water quality monitoring: The right combination of intent, measurement, interpretation, and a cooperating ecosystem

Water quality monitoring is invaluable to ensure compliance with regulations, detect trends or patterns, and advance ecological understanding. However, monitoring typically measures only a few characteristics in a small fraction of a large and complex system, and thus the information contained in monitoring data depends upon which features of the ecosystem are actually captured by the measurements. Difficulties arise when these data contain something other than intended, but this can be minimized if the purpose of the sampling is clear, and the sampling design, measurements, and data interpretations are all compatible with this purpose. The monitoring program and data interpretation must also be properly matched to the structure and functioning of the system. Obtaining this match is sometimes an iterative process that demands a close link between research and monitoring. This paper focuses on water quality monitoring that is intended to track trends in aquatic resources and advance ecological understanding. It includes examples from three monitoring programs and a simulation exercise that illustrate problems that arise when the information content of monitoring data differs from expectation. The examples show (1) how inconsistencies among, or lack of information about, the basic elements of a monitoring program (intent, design, measurement, interpretation, and the monitored system) can produce a systematic difference (bias) between monitoring measurements and sampling intent or interpretation, and (2) that bias is not just a statistical consideration, but an insidious problem that can undermine the scientific integrity of a monitoring program. Some general suggestions are provided and hopefully these examples will help those engaged in water quality monitoring to enhance and protect the value of their monitoring investment.

Lake and Reservoir Management

Tamm review: Postfire landscape management in frequent-fire conifer forests of the southwestern United States

The increasing incidence of wildfires across the southwestern United States (US) is altering the contemporary forest management template within historically frequent-fire conifer forests. An increasing fraction of southwestern conifer forests have recently burned, and many of these burned landscapes contain complex mosaics of surviving forest and severely burned patches without surviving conifer trees. These heterogeneous burned landscapes present unique social and ecological challenges. Severely burned patches can present numerous barriers to successful conifer regeneration, and often contain heavy downed fuels which have cascading effects on future fire behavior and conifer regeneration. Conversely, surviving forest patches are increasingly recognized for their value in postfire reforestation but often are overlooked from a management perspective. Here we present a decision-making framework for landscape-scale management of complex postfire landscapes that allows for adaptation to a warming climate and future fire. We focus specifically on historically frequent-fire forests of the southwestern US but make connections to other forest types and other regions. Our framework depends on a spatially-explicit assessment of the mosaic of conifer forest and severely burned patches in the postfire landscape, evaluates likely vegetation trajectories, and identifies critical decision points to direct vegetation change via manipulations of fuels and live vegetation. This framework includes detailed considerations for postfire fuels management (e.g., edge hardening within live forest patches and repeat burning) and for reforestation (e.g., balancing tradeoffs between intensive and extensive planting strategies, establishing patches of seed trees, spatial planning to optimize reforestation success, and improving nursery capacity). In a future of increasing fire activity in forests where repeated low- to moderate-severity fire is essential to ecosystem resilience, the decision-making framework developed here can easily be integrated with existing postfire management strategies to optimize allocation of limited resources and more actively manage burned landscapes.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah