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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Placing prairie pothole wetlands along spatial and temporal continua to improve integration of wetland function in ecological investigations

We evaluated the efficacy of using chemical characteristics to rank wetland relation to surface and groundwater along a hydrologic continuum ranging from groundwater recharge to groundwater discharge. We used 27 years (1974–2002) of water chemistry data from 15 prairie pothole wetlands and known hydrologic connections of these wetlands to groundwater to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in chemical characteristics that correspond to the unique ecosystem functions each wetland performed. Due to the mineral content and the low permeability rate of glacial till and soils, salinity of wetland waters increased along a continuum of wetland relation to groundwater recharge, flow-through or discharge. Mean inter-annual specific conductance (a proxy for salinity) increased along this continuum from wetlands that recharge groundwater being fresh to wetlands that receive groundwater discharge being the most saline, and wetlands that both recharge and discharge to groundwater (i.e., groundwater flow-through wetlands) being of intermediate salinity. The primary axis from a principal component analysis revealed that specific conductance (and major ions affecting conductance) explained 71% of the variation in wetland chemistry over the 27 years of this investigation. We found that long-term averages from this axis were useful to identify a wetland’s long-term relation to surface and groundwater. Yearly or seasonal measurements of specific conductance can be less definitive because of highly dynamic inter- and intra-annual climate cycles that affect water volumes and the interaction of groundwater and geologic materials, and thereby influence the chemical composition of wetland waters. The influence of wetland relation to surface and groundwater on water chemistry has application in many scientific disciplines and is especially needed to improve ecological understanding in wetland investigations. We suggest ways that monitoring in situ wetland conditions could be linked with evolving remote sensing technology to improve our ability to better inform decisions affecting wetland sustainability and provide periodic inventories of wetland ecosystem services to document temporal trends in wetland function and how they respond to contemporary land-use change.

North Dakota↗
USGS2017

Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival. However, human activities and climate change threaten to alter the dynamics of riverine thermal regimes. New data and tools can identify particular facets of the thermal landscape that describe ecological and management concerns and that are linked to human actions. The emerging complexity of thermal landscapes demands innovations in communication, opens the door to exciting research opportunities on the human impacts to and biological consequences of thermal variability, suggests improvements in monitoring programs to better capture empirical patterns, provides a framework for suites of actions to restore and protect the natural processes that drive thermal complexity, and indicates opportunities for better managing thermal landscapes.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Concordant signal of genetic variation across marker densities in the desert annual Chylismia brevipes is linked with timing of winter precipitation

Climate change coupled with large-scale surface disturbances necessitate active restoration strategies to promote resilient and genetically diverse native plant communities. However, scarcity of native plant materials hinders restoration efforts, leading practitioners to choose from potentially viable but nonlocal seed sources. Genome scans for genetic variation linked with selective environmental gradients have become a useful tool in such efforts, allowing rapid delineation of seed transfer zones along with predictions of genomic vulnerability to climate change. When properly applied, genome scans can reduce the risk of maladaptation due to mismatches between seed source and planting site. However, results are rarely replicated among complimentary data sources. Here, we compared RAD-seq datasets with 819 and 2699 SNPs (in 625 and 356 individuals, respectively) from the Mojave Desert winter annual Chylismia brevipes . Overall, we found that the datasets consistently characterized both neutral population structure and genetic–environmental associations. Ancestry analyses indicated consistent spatial genetic structuring into four regional populations. We also detected a marked signal of isolation by resistance (IBR), wherein spatial genetic structure was better explained by habitat resistance than by geographic distance. Potentially adaptive loci identified from genome scans were associated with the same environmental gradients—fall precipitation, winter minimum temperature, and precipitation timing—regardless of dataset. Paired with our finding that habitat resistance best explained genetic divergence, our results suggest that isolation of populations within environmentally similar habitats—and subsequent local adaption along gradients parallel to these habitats—drive genome-wide divergence in this species. Moreover, strong genetic associations with winter precipitation timing, along with forecasted shifts in precipitation regime due to midcentury climate change, could impact future population dynamics, habitat distribution, and genetic connectivity for C. brevipes populations within the Mojave Desert.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗
USGS2015

A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH 4 and CO 2 production from anoxic soil incubations

Permafrost thaw can alter the soil environment through changes in soil moisture, frequently resulting in soil saturation, a shift to anaerobic decomposition, and changes in the plant community. These changes, along with thawing of previously frozen organic material, can alter the form and magnitude of greenhouse gas production from permafrost ecosystems. We synthesized existing methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) production measurements from anaerobic incubations of boreal and tundra soils from the geographic permafrost region to evaluate large-scale controls of anaerobic CO 2 and CH 4 production and compare the relative importance of landscape-level factors (e.g., vegetation type and landscape position), soil properties (e.g., pH, depth, and soil type), and soil environmental conditions (e.g., temperature and relative water table position). We found fivefold higher maximum CH 4 production per gram soil carbon from organic soils than mineral soils. Maximum CH 4 production from soils in the active layer (ground that thaws and refreezes annually) was nearly four times that of permafrost per gram soil carbon, and CH 4 production per gram soil carbon was two times greater from sites without permafrost than sites with permafrost. Maximum CH 4 and median anaerobic CO 2 production decreased with depth, while CO 2 :CH 4 production increased with depth. Maximum CH 4 production was highest in soils with herbaceous vegetation and soils that were either consistently or periodically inundated. This synthesis identifies the need to consider biome, landscape position, and vascular/moss vegetation types when modeling CH 4 production in permafrost ecosystems and suggests the need for longer-term anaerobic incubations to fully capture CH 4 dynamics. Our results demonstrate that as climate warms in arctic and boreal regions, rates of anaerobic CO 2 and CH 4 production will increase, not only as a result of increased temperature, but also from shifts in vegetation and increased ground saturation that will accompany permafrost thaw.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2006

Water levels in carbonate rock terranes

Many subtle aspects of water levels in carbonate rocks need to be put in perspective even though hydrologists have recognized the fundamental value of characteristics of ground-water levels. The depth to the water table in carbonate rocks is controlled by local factors such as permeability and topography and by the regional factor of climate; both permeability and topography are dynamically developed according to the degree of preferential circulation of subsurface water and of solution of the rock, and the water table responds by lying deep beneath hilly permeable karstlands and shallow beneath flat and poorly permeable carbonate rocks. The uneven distribution of permeability and of topographic conditions is responsible for the intriguing karst phenomena of disappearing and reappearing surface streams. Great infiltration capacities of some karst regions result in large local fluctuations of the water table and in some cases to local reversals in direction of ground-water flow between wet and dry seasons. Water-level behavior in space and time is a primary consideration for interpreting the hydrology of carbonate terranes.

Groundwater↗
USGS2014

Demography of the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ): 1974-2006

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Marine Mammal Science↗
USGS2015

Desert wetlands—Archives of a wetter past

Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are finding evidence of a much wetter past in the deserts of the American Southwest using a most unlikely source—wetlands. Wetlands form in arid environments where water tables approach or breach the ground surface. Often thought of as stagnant and unchanging, new evidence suggests that springs and wetlands responded dynamically to past episodes of abrupt climate change. Multiple cycles of deposition, erosion, and soil formation show that wetlands in the southwestern United States expanded and contracted many times during the past 35,000 years or so, before disappearing altogether as the last glacial period came to a close. USGS scientists are now studying the deposits to determine how closely conditions in the desert were tied to regional and global climate patterns in the past, and what it might mean for the fragile ecosystems in light of anticipated climate change in the future.

Nevada↗
USGS2020

Novel circoviruses detected in feces of Sonoran felids

Sonoran felids are threatened by drought and habitat fragmentation. Vector range expansion and anthropogenic factors such as habitat encroachment and climate change are altering viral evolutionary dynamics and exposure. However, little is known about the diversity of viruses present in these populations. Small felid populations with lower genetic diversity are likely to be most threatened with extinction by emerging diseases, as with other selective pressures, due to having less adaptive potential. We used a metagenomic approach to identify novel circoviruses, which may have a negative impact on the population viability, from confirmed bobcat ( Lynx rufus ) and puma ( Puma concolor ) scats collected in Sonora, Mexico. Given some circoviruses are known to cause disease in their hosts, such as porcine and avian circoviruses, we took a non-invasive approach using scat to identify circoviruses in free-roaming bobcats and puma. Three circovirus genomes were determined, and, based on the current species demarcation, they represent two novel species. Phylogenetic analyses reveal that one circovirus species is more closely related to rodent associated circoviruses and the other to bat associated circoviruses, sharing highest genome-wide pairwise identity of approximately 70% and 63%, respectively. At this time, it is unknown whether these scat-derived circoviruses infect felids, their prey, or another organism that might have had contact with the scat in the environment. Further studies should be conducted to elucidate the host of these viruses and assess health impacts in felids

Sonoran Desert↗
USGS2009

Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100

In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m −2 decade −1 ). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade −1 ) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m −2 decade −1 ). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m −2 decade −1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2013

Dynamics of seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise at French Frigate Shoals, Hawai`i

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong site fidelity; therefore, conservation strategies could benefit from an understanding of the population dynamics and vulnerability of breeding colonies to climate change. More than 350 atolls exist across the Pacific Ocean; while they provide nesting habitat for many seabirds, they are also vulnerable to sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore seabird colony dynamics and the potential consequences of sea-level rise. We compiled a unique combination of data sets: historical observations of islands and seabirds, a 30-year time series of population abundance, LiDAR- (light detection and ranging) derived elevations, and satellite imagery. To model population dynamics for ten species at Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used the Gompertz model with parameters for the population growth rate, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters. All species increased in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Density dependence may exacerbate the consequences of sea-level rise on seabirds because species that are already near the carrying capacity of the nesting habitat will be limited more than species that still have space for population growth. Laysan Albatross ( Phoebastria immutabilis ), Great Frigatebird ( Fregata minor ), Red-tailed Tropicbird ( Phaethon rubricauda ), Masked Booby ( Sula dactylatra ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), and White Tern ( Gygis alba ) are likely already at carrying capacity at Tern Island and therefore are most likely to be negatively impacted by sea-level rise. We project 12% of French Frigate Shoals (excluding La Perouse Pinnacle) will be inundated with +1.0 m sea-level rise or 32% with +2.0 m. Gray-backed Terns that nest along the coastal perimeters of islands and shrub-nesting species that are habitat limited are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise. However, at Tern Island, seawalls and habitat creation may mitigate projected seabird population declines due to habitat loss. We predict substantial losses in seabird nesting habitat across the low-lying Hawaiian Islands by 2100 and emphasize the need to restore higher elevation seabird colonies.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2009

Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Prevalence and diversity of avian blood parasites in a resident northern passerine

Background: Climate-related changes are expected to influence the prevalence and distribution of vector-borne haemosporidian parasites at northern latitudes, although baseline information about resident birds is still lacking. In this study, we investigated prevalence and genetic diversity of Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, and Leucocytozoon parasites infecting the Northwestern Crow (Corvus caurinus), a non-migratory passerine with unique life-history characteristics. This species occupies both intertidal and forested habitats and is subject to high prevalence of avian keratin disorder (AKD), a disease that causes gross beak deformities. Investigation of avian blood parasites in Northwestern Crows at sites broadly distributed across coastal Alaska provided an opportunity to evaluate specific host factors related to parasite infection status and assess geographic patterns of prevalence. Results: We used molecular methods to screen for haemosporidian parasites in Northwestern Crows and estimated genus-specific parasite prevalence with occupancy modeling that accounts for imperfect detection of parasite infection. We observed considerable geographic and annual variation in prevalence of Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, and Leucocytozoon , but these patterns were not correlated with indices of local climatic conditions. Our models also did not provide support for relationships between the probability of parasite infection and body condition or the occurrence of co-infections with other parasite genera or clinical signs of AKD. In our phylogenetic analyses, we identified multiple lineages of each parasite genus, with Leucocytozoon showing greater diversity than Plasmodium or Haemoproteus. Conclusions: Results from this study expand our knowledge about the prevalence and diversity of avian blood parasites in northern resident birds as well as corvids worldwide. We detected all three genera of avian haemosporidians in Northwestern Crows in Alaska, although only Leucocytozoon occurred at all sites in both years. Given the strong geographic and interannual variation in parasite prevalence and apparent lack of correlation with climatic variables, it appears that there are other key factors responsible for driving transmission dynamics in this region. Thus, caution is warranted when using standard climatic or geographic attributes in a predictive framework. Our phylogenetic results demonstrate lower host specificity for some lineages of Leucocytozoon than is typically reported and provide insights about genetic diversity of local haemosporidian parasites in Alaska.

Parasites & Vectors↗
USGS2013

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.

California↗
USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗
USGS2017

Monitoring land surface albedo and vegetation dynamics using high spatial and temporal resolution synthetic time series from Landsat and the MODIS BRDF/NBAR/albedo product

Seasonal vegetation phenology can significantly alter surface albedo which in turn affects the global energy balance and the albedo warming/cooling feedbacks that impact climate change. To monitor and quantify the surface dynamics of heterogeneous landscapes, high temporal and spatial resolution synthetic time series of albedo and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were generated from the 500 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) operational Collection V006 daily BRDF/NBAR/albedo products and 30 m Landsat 5 albedo and near-nadir reflectance data through the use of the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). The traditional Landsat Albedo (Shuai et al., 2011) makes use of the MODIS BRDF/Albedo products (MCD43) by assigning appropriate BRDFs from coincident MODIS products to each Landsat image to generate a 30 m Landsat albedo product for that acquisition date. The available cloud free Landsat 5 albedos (due to clouds, generated every 16 days at best) were used in conjunction with the daily MODIS albedos to determine the appropriate 30 m albedos for the intervening daily time steps in this study. These enhanced daily 30 m spatial resolution synthetic time series were then used to track albedo and vegetation phenology dynamics over three Ameriflux tower sites (Harvard Forest in 2007, Santa Rita in 2011 and Walker Branch in 2005). These Ameriflux sites were chosen as they are all quite nearby new towers coming on line for the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), and thus represent locations which will be served by spatially paired albedo measures in the near future. The availability of data from the NEON towers will greatly expand the sources of tower albedometer data available for evaluation of satellite products. At these three Ameriflux tower sites the synthetic time series of broadband shortwave albedos were evaluated using the tower albedo measurements with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) less than 0.013 and a bias within the range of ±0.006. These synthetic time series provide much greater spatial detail than the 500 m gridded MODIS data, especially over more heterogeneous surfaces, which improves the efforts to characterize and monitor the spatial variation across species and communities. The mean of the difference between maximum and minimum synthetic time series of albedo within the MODIS pixels over a subset of satellite data of Harvard Forest (16 km by 14 km) was as high as 0.2 during the snow-covered period and reduced to around 0.1 during the snow-free period. Similarly, we have used STARFM to also couple MODIS Nadir BRDF Adjusted Reflectances (NBAR) values with Landsat 5 reflectances to generate daily synthetic times series of NBAR and thus Enhanced Vegetation Index (NBAR-EVI) at a 30 m resolution. While normally STARFM is used with directional reflectances, the use of the view angle corrected daily MODIS NBAR values will provide more consistent time series. These synthetic times series of EVI are shown to capture seasonal vegetation dynamics with finer spatial and temporal details, especially over heterogeneous land surfaces.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗
USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Aligning climate models with stakeholder needs: Advances in communicating future rainfall uncertainties for south Florida decision makers

Changes in future precipitation are of great importance to climate data users in South Florida. A recent U.S. Geological Survey workshop, “Increasing Confidence in Precipitation Projections for Everglades Restoration,” highlighted a gap between standard climate model outputs and the climate information needs of some key Florida natural resource managers. These natural resource managers (hereafter broadly defined as “climate data users”) need more tailored output than is commonly provided by the climate modeling community. This study responds to these user needs by outlining and testing an adaptable methodology to select output from ensemble climate‐model simulations based on user‐defined precipitation drivers, using statistical methods common across scientific disciplines. This methodology is developed to provide a “decision matrix” that guides climate data users to specify the subset of models most important to their work based on each user's season (winter, summer, and annual) and the condition (dry, wet, neutral, and no threshold events) of interest. The decision matrix is intended to better communicate the subset of models best representing precipitation drivers. This information could increase users' confidence in climate models as a resource for natural resource planning and can be used to direct future dynamical downscaling efforts. This methodology is based in dynamical processes controlling precipitation via remote and local teleconnections. We also suggest that future climate studies in South Florida include high‐resolution climate model runs (i.e., ocean eddy resolving) in conjunction with dynamical downscaling to adequately capture precipitation variability.

South Florida↗
USGS2022

A Resist-Accept-Direct decision-support tool for walleye Sander vitreus (Mitchill) management in Wisconsin

Large-scale modelling and prediction provide insight into general influences of climate change on inland recreational fisheries; however, small-scale dynamics and local expertise will be key in developing explicit goals for managing recreational fisheries as the climate changes. The resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework encompasses the entire decision space managers consider when addressing climate influences in their local system, but to decide whether to resist, accept or direct, managers need tools to understand how specific waterbodies will be influenced by climate change. Here, a decision-support tool was developed and applied to the walleye recreational fishery in Wisconsin, USA as an example of how to link the RAD framework to real-world management of a large recreational fishery. The tool and broadscale results described here, indicating a widespread shift away from resist strategies by mid-century, can be used by managers to inform decisions about whether to resist, accept, or direct for specific walleye populations.

Wisconsin↗