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USGS2003

Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer

Two M ??? 6 well-recorded strike-slip earthquakes struck just 4 km and 48 days apart in Kagoshima prefecture, Japan, in 1997, providing an opportunity to study earthquake interaction. Aftershocks are abundant where the Coulomb stress is calculated to have been increased by the first event, and they abruptly stop where the stress is dropped by the second event. This ability of the main shocks to toggle seismicity on and off argues that static stress changes play a major role in exciting aftershocks, whereas the dynamic Coulomb stresses, which should only promote seismicity, appear to play a secondary role. If true, the net stress changes from a sequence of earthquakes might be expected to govern the subsequent seismicity distribution. However, adding the stress changes from the two Kagoshima events does not fully capture the ensuing seismicity, such as its rate change, temporal decay, or migration away from the ends of the ruptures. We therefore implement a stress transfer model that incorporates rate/state friction, in which seismicity is treated as a sequence of independent nucleation events that are dependent on the fault slip, slip rate, and elapsed time since the last event. The model reproduces the temporal response of seismicity to successive stress changes, including toggling, decay, and aftershock migration. Nevertheless, the match of observed to predicted seismicity is quite imperfect, due perhaps to inadequate knowledge of several model parameters. However, to demonstrate the potential of this approach, we build a probabilistic forecast of larger earthquakes on the expected rate of small aftershocks, taking advantage of the large statistical sample the small shocks afford. Not surprisingly, such probabilities are highly time- and location-dependent: During the first decade after the main shocks, the seismicity rate and the chance of successive large shocks are about an order of magnitude higher than the background rate and are concentrated exclusively in the stress triggering zones. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Uion.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1976

Seepage study of canals in Beaver Valley, Beaver County, Utah

A study of the gains or losses of nine canals near Beaver, Utah, was made to aid in the water allocation of the canal systems. The canals included in this study are Manderfield Ditch, Last Chance Canal, Christiansen Ditch, Mammoth Canal, City Ditch, Owens Ditch, South Field Ditch, Patterson Ditch and Aberdare Canal. Four sets of seepage measurements were made during 1974, but flow was observed in all nine canals only during the set of measurements made in June. Adjustments for fluctuations in flow in the canals were made from information obtained from water-stage recorders operated at selected locations along the canals during the time of each seepage run.

Utah↗

USGS1960

Earthquake fluctuations in wells in New Jersey

New Jersey is fortunate to be situated in a region that is relatively stable, geologically. For this reason scientists believe, on the basis of the best scientific evidence available, that the chances of New Jersey experiencing a major earthquake are very small. The last major earthquake on the east coast occurred at Charleston, S. C., in 1886. Minor shocks have been felt in New Jersey, however, from time to time. Reports of dishes being rattled or even of plaster in buildings being cracked are not uncommon. These minor disturbances are generally restricted to relatively small areas.

New Jersey↗

USGS2014

Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence information from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project, and satellite and surface observations of fuel conditions in the form of the Fire Potential Index, to estimate two aspects of fire danger: 1) the probability that a 1 acre ignition will result in a 100+ acre fire, and 2) the probabilities of having at least 1, 2, 3, or 4 large fires within a Predictive Services Area in the forthcoming week. These statistical processes are the main thrust of the paper and are used to produce two daily national forecasts that are available from the U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and via the Wildland Fire Assessment System. A validation study of our forecasts for the 2013 fire season demonstrated good agreement between observed and forecasted values.

Book↗

USGS2011

Effects of herbivory and flooding on reforestation of baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum [L.]) saplings planted in Caddo Lake, Texas

The effects of herbivory and flooding were examined on survival and growth of planted baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.) saplings at three sites in Caddo Lake, TX, over a 4-yr period. There were two flood regimes (shallow periodic and deep continuous), where half of the saplings in each flood regime were protected by tree shelters to prevent herbivory. By the end of the first year, over 80% of saplings survived with half of saplings classified as healthy. By the end of the fourth year, only half of the saplings were alive and one-third were healthy. At all three sites, the combination of no protection and continuous flooding resulted in a significant number of missing saplings. Likewise, most unprotected saplings in periodic flooding were missing by the end of the study. Saplings clipped by herbivores showed about 50% chance of recovery, but many of the sprouts were of poor quality. Protected saplings in tree shelters achieved significantly greater survival and height growth.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS2014

Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan

Recent earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan show that it is important to consider the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks following large magnitude events since the probability of high intensity ground motions from aftershocks, which are capable of causing significant societal impact, can be considerable. This is due to the fact that a mainshock will have many aftershocks, some of which may occur closer to populated areas and may be large enough to cause damage. When a large magnitude event strikes a region, the chance that aftershocks will cause damage can be significant as was observed after the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Canterbury earthquakes (e.g., damage caused by M w 6.6 April 11, 2011 Fukushima-Hamadori earthquake following Tohoku earthquake or by M w 6.3 February 22, 2011 Christchurch earthquake following Canterbury earthquake). Aftershock events may further damage already damaged buildings, thereby further complicating assessments of risk to the built environment. In this paper, the issue of aftershock risk is addressed by summarizing current research regarding: (1) aftershock hazard, (2) structural fragility/vulnerability before and after the mainshock, and (3) change in risk due to aftershocks.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2010

Herbicide treatment of invasive Vinca major growing with endangered Galium buxifolium, an island endemic

Galium buxifolium E. Greene [Rubiaceae] (sea-cliff bedstraw) is a small shrub restricted to San Miguel and Santa Cruz Islands, in the California Channel Islands. Almost all of the 26 known populations grow on vertical north-facing sea cliffs in native scrub, sandwiched between the sea below and non-native annual grasslands on the terraces above. A notable exception is a popula?tion at Pelican Bay on Santa Cruz Island, growing on the cliff and on thin terrace soils above the cliff in a stand of coastal bluff scrub that is recovering from more than a century of sheep grazing (Figure 1). Ironically, this stand is near the location of the historic Eaton Resort, a charismatic inn frequented by Hollywood glitterati in the early 1900s. Several landscape ornamentals planted there persist today in the area of the Galium population. Italian stone pine (Pinus pinaea) and eucalyptus (Eucalyptus spp.) tower over the site while the invasive groundcover Vinca major L. [Apocynaceae] (greater periwinkle) forms dense mats at the cliff edge that are spreading into the developing native plant stand. Wherever the Galium is found it is intermixed with other native scrub plants in dense communities on moist ocean bluffs. Historic notes and herbarium collections indicate that it may have been more widespread on nearshore terraces adjacent to sea-cliff populations before conversion to grassland. Since Pelican Bay is the only site that we know of where Galium is spreading onto the nearby terrace, we wanted to know whether the Vinca posed a roadblock to upslope population expansion. In 2005 we mapped Vinca and Galium at the site. We also measured Galium individuals to see where the smaller, younger plants were to better understand where the population is expanding. We observed that 1) both the Galium and the Vinca appear to be spreading from the cliff face upslope onto a series of rock outcrops, stone walls and benches, 2) the native scrub community is recovering at the site and 3) the Vinca appears to be moving into the native scrub where it overtops small plants, including those Galium in the smallest size classes. This observed pattern of Vinca displacement of native vegetation has been noted in other places, where it is treated as an invasive weed. We concluded that Vinca may pose a threat to the expansion of both the native scrub and the Galium population that it supports. Therefore, we worked with the US Fish and Wildlife Service and others to develop a research project investigating 1) best techniques for killing Vinca within the boundaries of an endangered plant population and 2) demographic response of Galium to the treatment. Our intent is to push Vinca back to the vertical cliff face to give the natives a chance to establish a vigorous stand. Our conservation goal is to encourage natural establishment of new Galium plants on the terrace along with expansion of the native coastal bluff scrub and Galium population. Our immediate treatment objective is to reduce live Vinca cover by 90 % on the accessible upslope portions of the habitat. Our recovery objective is no net loss of Galium plants 2006-2016.

California↗

USGS2006

Grizzly bear nutrition and ecology studies in Yellowstone National Park

T HE CHANCE TO SEE a wild grizzly bear is often the first or second reason people give for visiting Yellow - stone National Park. Public interest in bears is closely coupled with a desire to perpetuate this wild symbol of the American West. Grizzly bears have long been described as a wilderness species requiring large tracts of undisturbed habitat. However, in today’s world, most grizzly bears live in close proximity to humans (Schwartz et al. 2003). Even in Yellowstone National Park, the impacts of humans can affect the long-term survival of bears (Gunther et al. 2002). As a consequence, the park has long supported grizzly bear research in an effort to understand these impacts. Most people are familiar with what happened when the park and the State of Montana closed open-pit garbage dumps in the late 1960s and early 1970s, when at least 229 bears died as a direct result of conflict with humans. However, many may not be as familiar with the ongoing changes in the park’s plant and animal communities that have the potential to further alter the park’s ability to support grizzly bears.

Wyoming↗

USGS1988

Forecasting California’s earthquakes

The first official earthquake forecast for California emphasizes the broad extent of the hazard and the uncertainties involved in predicting the next quakes. For the first time, researchers have reached to a consensus on the threat of large earthquakes to California, things look no worse for Los Angles than before. It still has about a 60 percent chance of being shaken by a large earthquake sometime during the next 30 years. But other heavily populated areas of California, such as San Bernardino and the East Bay area of San Francisco, are now getting their fair share of attention. The new consensus also points up the considerable uncertainties invloved in earthquake forecasting.

California↗

USGS1995

Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee population.

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS1990

Intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The problems in predicting earthquakes have been attacked by phenomenological methods from pre-historic times to the present. The associations of presumed precursors with large earthquakes often have been remarked upon. the difficulty in identifying whether such correlations are due to some chance coincidence or are real precursors is that usually one notes the associations only in the relatively short time intervals before the large events. Only rarely, if ever, is notice taken of whether the presumed precursor is to be found in the rather long intervals that follow large earthquakes, or in fact is absent in these post-earthquake intervals. If there are enough examples, the presumed correlation fails as a precursor in the former case, while in the latter case the precursor would be verified. Unfortunately, the observer is usually not concerned with the 'uniteresting' intervals that have no large earthquakes.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗

USGS1974

Seismic risk maps

What is the possibility that an earthquake will occur near you? Have you ever wondered what the chances were that an earthquake could affect you at home or at work? Perhaps you are planning to move to a part of the country subject to frequent earthquakes. How do you determine the relative likelihood that an earthquake will cause damage at a particular place.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS2007

Investigating passage of ESA-listed juvenile fall Chinook salmon at Lower Granite Dam during winter when the fish bypass system is not operated

During the winter of 2006-07, we radio and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagged, and released 99 juvenile fall Chinook salmon to evaluate over-wintering behavior and dam passage in the lower Snake River, Washington. All fish were released 10 km upstream of Lower Granite Dam at Granite Point in early November, 2006. Fixed radio telemetry detection sites located in the forebay and tailrace areas of Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, Ice Harbor, Bonneville dams, and at Lyle, Washington were used to monitor fish movements and dam passage through early-May 2007. Of the 99 fish released during our study, 80 passed Lower Granite Dam and were detected at downstream detection sites, 37 passed Little Goose Dam, 41 passed Lower Monumental Dam, 31 passed Ice Harbor Dam, 18 passed Lyle, WA, and 13 passed Bonneville Dam. Of the fish that passed Lower Granite Dam in the fall, 63 fish did so during the extended bypass period from November 1 through December 16. Of these fish, 53 were also detected by the PIT-tag interrogation system. Fifteen of the fish that passed Lower Granite Dam in the fall continued to pass lower Snake River dams and exit the system by the end of January. The remaining fish either died, their tags failed, or they resided in Little Goose Reservoir until spring when relatively few continued their seaward migration. Passage of tagged fish past lower Snake River dams generally declined during the winter as temperatures decreased, but increased again in the spring as temperatures and flows increased. Fish residence times in reservoirs and forebays was lengthy during the winter (up to 160 d), and varied by reservoir and time of year. We observed no diel trends in fish passage. Very few fish were detected at PIT-tag interrogation sites in the spring compared to detection by radio telemetry detection sites indicating that fish may have passed via spill. We believe that passage of overwintering juvenile fall Chinook salmon during winter is due more to chance than directed downstream movement. Since the primary route of passage during the winter is through powerhouse turbines, the potential exists for increased mortality for over-wintering juvenile fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River. Our findings that some fish can pass undetected during the winter likely bias traditional smolt-to-adult return rate calculations that are typically used to measure the success of juvenile transportation studies.

Washington↗

USGS2007

Investigating passage of ESA-listed juvenile fall Chinook salmon at Lower Granite Dam during winter when the fish bypass system is not operated. 2006 Annual Report

During the winter of 2005-06, we radio and PIT tagged and released 48 juvenile fall Chinook salmon to evaluate over-wintering behavior and dam passage in the lower Snake River, Washington. Fish were released at the upstream end of the Lower Granite Dam forebay in November and December 2005. Fixed radio telemetry detection sites located in forebay and tailrace areas of Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental and Ice Harbor dams were used to monitor fish movements and dam passage through early-May 2006. Of the 48 fish released during our study, 39 (81 %) passed Lower Granite Dam and were detected at downstream detection sites, 29 (60%) passed Little Goose Dam, 25 (52%) passed Lower Monumental Dam, and 15 (31%) passed Ice Harbor Dam. Thirty-seven (95%), 23 (79%), 16 (64%), and 9 (60%) of the fish that passed Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, and Ice Harbor dams respectively, did so when the fish bypass system was not operated. Passage of tagged fish past lower Snake River dams generally declined during the winter, but increased again after bypass began in April. Fish residence times in reservoirs and forebays was lengthy during the winter (up to 118 d), and varied by reservoir and time of year. We observed no diel passage trends. Only 15 of the 48 fish were subsequently detected at a PIT-tag interrogation site the following spring. We believe that passage of overwintering juvenile fall Chinook salmon during winter is due more to chance than directed downstream movement. Since the primary route of passage during the winter is through powerhouse turbines, the potential exists for increased mortality for over-wintering juvenile fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River. Our findings also have implications for transportation studies of subyearling fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River. Specifically, the finding that some fish can pass undetected during the winter may bias smolt-to-adult return rate calculations that are typically used to measure the success of the aforementioned management actions.

Washington↗

USGS2000

Engineering geology considerations for park planning, Antelope Island State Park, Davis County, Utah

Report : 00 - 1 In the mid-1980s, historically high levels of Great Salt Lake caused damage to park facilities on Antelope Island and destroyed the causeway linking the park to the mainland. Information on the engineering geology of Antelope Island can be used to improve park facilities and reduce the risk from geologic hazards and poor construction conditions. Certain characteristics of the geologic environment need to be considered in park planning . During wet cycles, Great Salt Lake may reach static levels of 4,217 feet (1,285.3 m), and wave- and wind-elevated levels locally may reach 6.5 feet (2 m) higher. A probabilistic assessment of the earthquake ground-shaking hazard along the Wasatch Front indicates that peak ground accelerations of approximately 0.20 to 0.30 g have a one-in-ten chance of being exceeded in 50 years on the island . A slope-failure hazard exists locally in colluvial and Lake Bonneville deposits, along the modern shore, and beneath cliffs. Flash-flood and debris-flow hazards exist on alluvial fans. Areas in the southern two-thirds of the island may have a relatively high potential for radon emission. Particular soil types on the island may be expansive, compressible, erodible, impermeable, or susceptible to liquefaction or hydrocompaction. The distribution of most geologic hazards can be defined, and many locations on the island have conditions suitable for construction. Lacustrine sand and gravel deposits are wide-spread and have engineering characteristics that are generally favorable for foundations. However, facilities and roads built close to the modern shoreline may be susceptible to lake flooding and erosion, slope failures, shallow ground water, and burial by active sand dunes. Well-graded (poorly sorted) alluvial-fan deposits are generally most suitable for wastewater disposal, although they may be subject to flooding or be underlain by low-permeability, fine-grained lacustrine deposits.

Utah↗

USGS2008

Microhabitat use by brook trout inhabiting small tributaries and a large river main stem: Implications for stream habitat restoration in the central Appalachians

Brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat restoration is needed across a range of stream sizes; however, studies quantifying brook trout habitat preferences in streams of differing sizes are rare. We used radio-telemetry to quantify adult brook trout microhabitat use in a central Appalachian watershed, the upper Shavers Fork of the Cheat River in eastern West Virginia. Our objectives were to: 1) quantify non-random microhabitat use by adult brook trout in the Shavers Fork main stem (drainage area = 32 km2) and an adjacent tributary, Rocky Run (drainage area = 7 km2); and 2) construct stream-specific habitat suitability curves (HSCs) for four important microhabitat variables (depth, average current velocity, maximum current velocity within one meter, and distance to cover). Brook trout used a subset of available microhabitats in both the main stem and Rocky Run: trout tended to occupy microhabitats that were deeper, higher velocity, and closer to cover than expected by chance alone. Although specific microhabitat values differed between the main stem and tributary populations, the overall patterns in brook trout microhabitat use were consistent regardless of stream size. Habitat suitability curves were constructed based on brook trout microhabitat use and will be used to design and monitor the effectiveness of future habitat restoration efforts in the Shavers Fork watershed. Our results suggest that habitat enhancement projects that increase the availability of deep, high velocity microhabitats adjacent to cover would benefit brook trout in both small tributaries and larger river main stems.

Proceedings of the Southeastern Association of Fis↗

USGS1937

Disease relationship of domestic stock and wildlife

From the time that western civilization established itself on the North American continent until very recent years, little thought was given to the diseases, or other forms of loss, in game. In the process of bringing civilization and the incidental domestic arts and trades to the United States it appears to have been the policy to establish domestic farm stock on the land just as abundantly as the carrying capacity of land would tolerate. And judged by the low quality of many of our present farm animals, it is evident that in many cases the land was, and is now, overstocked and undermanaged. In traveling over this country one is impressed by the lack of uniformity, imperfect physical development, and poor state of nutrition of much of the domestic livestock. It would appear that the wild animals unhampered by fencing and other restraint such as controlled mating, feed selection, and enforced habitat in contaminated or polluted environment, have a better chance for perfect growth and complete development to a size and proportion normal for those species. While all of the factors mentioned produce a definitely deleterious result on the welfare of animal life, that of contaminated or polluted environment is by no means the least. The stunting action of disease on the growth of the young is too well known to admit of controversy. The impairment of function of vital organs due to minute cellular changes resulting from sub-acute or chronic infections prevents normal growth. Through centuries of enforced survival in densely congested pastures, pens, and stables, a certain degree of acquired resistance to many diseases has been built up in farm stock. If it were not so, very few barnyard animals would ever survive the conditions generally seen in our agricultural districts. Manure heaps, quantities of partly spoiled feed, and decaying masses of vegetation and refuse have come to be regarded as a natural part of the barnyard scene.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Occupancy and abundance of Eleutherodactylus wightmanae and E. brittoni along elevational gradients in west-central Puerto Rico

Populations of Eleutherodactylus species in Puerto Rico have declined in recent decades due to habitat loss and long-term climatic changes. The conservation of these habitat specialists requires an understanding of factors influencing their abundance and distribution, which at present is scant. We estimated occupancy probability and the probability of encountering ≥2 individuals of E. wightmanae (Melodius Coqui or Wightman's Robber Frog) and E. brittoni (Grass Coqui), species with contrasting habitat affinities, using multi-season, multi-state occupancy models. These parameters also served as an index of abundance (non-presence, 1, and ≥2 individuals). We modeled parameters as a function of seasonal temperature and humidity, long-term average monthly precipitation, and habitat covariates measured at survey sites along 2 elevation gradients in the southern slopes of west-central Puerto Rico. We collected survey data using passive acoustic recorders during 3 seasonal periods between February and July 2015. Occupancy patterns of both species was unimodal, containing higher probabilities (e.g., ≥0.5) at elevations between 400 m and 700 m, where long-term monthly precipitation varied between 120 mm and 160 mm. Chances of encountering ≥2 individuals increased with ground cover for E. brittoni , and decreased with increasing canopy cover for E. wightmanae . Seasonal temperature and relative humidity did not influence occupancy or the probability of encountering ≥2 individuals, likely because covariates varied within known tolerance levels for Eleutherodactylus . Our findings help reduce local extinction probability through management of habitat conditions that increase the likelihood of encountering ≥2 individuals. We also detailed an analytical framework suitable to test hypotheses aimed at predicting potential impacts from land use and climatic changes, and species responses to conservation actions.

Puerto Rico↗