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USGS2015

Computing elastic‐rebound‐motivated rarthquake probabilities in unsegmented fault models: a new methodology supported by physics‐based simulators

A methodology is presented for computing elastic‐rebound‐based probabilities in an unsegmented fault or fault system, which involves computing along‐fault averages of renewal‐model parameters. The approach is less biased and more self‐consistent than a logical extension of that applied most recently for multisegment ruptures in California. It also enables the application of magnitude‐dependent aperiodicity values, which the previous approach does not. Monte Carlo simulations are used to analyze long‐term system behavior, which is generally found to be consistent with that of physics‐based earthquake simulators. Results cast doubt that recurrence‐interval distributions at points on faults look anything like traditionally applied renewal models, a fact that should be considered when interpreting paleoseismic data. We avoid such assumptions by changing the "probability of what" question (from offset at a point to the occurrence of a rupture, assuming it is the next event to occur). The new methodology is simple, although not perfect in terms of recovering long‐term rates in Monte Carlo simulations. It represents a reasonable, improved way to represent first‐order elastic‐rebound predictability, assuming it is there in the first place, and for a system that clearly exhibits other unmodeled complexities, such as aftershock triggering.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Time‐dependent renewal‐model probabilities when date of last earthquake is unknown

We derive time-dependent, renewal-model earthquake probabilities for the case in which the date of the last event is completely unknown, and compare these with the time-independent Poisson probabilities that are customarily used as an approximation in this situation. For typical parameter values, the renewal-model probabilities exceed Poisson results by more than 10% when the forecast duration exceeds ~20% of the mean recurrence interval. We also derive probabilities for the case in which the last event is further constrained to have occurred before historical record keeping began (the historic open interval), which can only serve to increase earthquake probabilities for typically applied renewal models.We conclude that accounting for the historic open interval can improve long-term earthquake rupture forecasts for California and elsewhere.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Shaking from injection-induced earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

In this study I consider the ground motions generated by 11 moderate (M w 4.0-5.6) earthquakes in the central and eastern United States that are thought or suspected to be induced by fluid injection. Using spatially rich intensity data from the USGS “Did You Feel It?” system, I show that the distance decay of intensities for all events is consistent with that observed for tectonic earthquakes in the region, but for all of the events, intensities are lower than values predicted from an intensity prediction equation that successfully characterizes intensities for regional tectonic events. I introduce an effective intensity magnitude, M IE , defined as the magnitude that on average would generate a given intensity distribution. For all 11 events, M IE is lower than the event magnitude by 0.4-1.3 magnitude units, with an average difference of 0.82 units. This suggests that stress drops of injection-induced earthquakes are systematically lower than tectonic earthquakes by an estimated factor of 2-10. However, relatively limited data suggest that intensities for epicentral distances less than 10 km are more commensurate with expectations for the event magnitude, which can be reasonably explained by the shallow focal depth of the events. The results suggest that damage from injection-induced earthquakes will be especially concentrated in the immediate epicentral region.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Using surface creep rate to infer fraction locked for sections of the San Andreas fault system in northern California from alignment array and GPS data

Surface creep rate, observed along five branches of the dextral San Andreas fault system in northern California, varies considerably from one section to the next, indicating that so too may the depth at which the faults are locked. We model locking on 29 fault sections using each section’s mean long‐term creep rate and the consensus values of fault width and geologic slip rate. Surface creep rate observations from 111 short‐range alignment and trilateration arrays and 48 near‐fault, Global Positioning System station pairs are used to estimate depth of creep, assuming an elastic half‐space model and adjusting depth of creep iteratively by trial and error to match the creep observations along fault sections. Fault sections are delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We remove transient rate changes associated with five large (M≥5.5) regional earthquakes. Estimates of fraction locked, the ratio of moment accumulation rate to loading rate, on each section of the fault system provide a uniform means to inform source parameters relevant to seismic‐hazard assessment. From its mean creep rates, we infer the main branch (the San Andreas fault) ranges from only 20%±10% locked on its central creeping section to 99%–100% on the north coast. From mean accumulation rates, we infer that four urban faults appear to have accumulated enough seismic moment to produce major earthquakes: the northern Calaveras (M 6.8), Hayward (M 6.8), Rodgers Creek (M 7.1), and Green Valley (M 7.1). The latter three faults are nearing or past their mean recurrence interval.

California↗

USGS2015

Earthquake geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)

The Bulnay earthquake of July 23, 1905 (M w 8.3-8.5), in north-central Mongolia, is one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes and one of four great earthquakes that occurred in the region during the 20th century. The 375-km-long surface rupture of the left-lateral, strike-slip, N095°E trending Bulnay Fault associated with this earthquake is remarkable for its pronounced expression across the landscape and for the size of features produced by previous earthquakes. Our field observations suggest that in many areas the width and geometry of the rupture zone is the result of repeated earthquakes; however, in those areas where it is possible to determine that the geomorphic features are the result of the 1905 surface rupture alone, the size of the features produced by this single earthquake are singular in comparison to most other historical strike-slip surface ruptures worldwide. Along the 80 km stretch, between 97.18°E and 98.33°E, the fault zone is characterized by several meters width and the mean left-lateral 1905 offset is 8.9 ± 0.6 m with two measured cumulative offsets that are twice the 1905 slip. These observations suggest that the displacement produced during the penultimate event was similar to the 1905 slip. Morphotectonic analyses carried out at three sites along the eastern part of the Bulnay fault, allow us to estimate a mean horizontal slip rate of 3.1 ± 1.7 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene-Holocene period. In parallel, paleoseismological investigations show evidence for two earthquakes prior to the 1905 event with recurrence intervals of ~2700-4000 years.

Bulnay Fault↗

USGS2014

A generalization of the double-corner-frequency source spectral model and its use in the SCEC BBP validation exercise

The stochastic method of simulating ground motions requires the specification of the shape and scaling with magnitude of the source spectrum. The spectral models commonly used are either single-corner-frequency or double-corner-frequency models, but the latter have no flexibility to vary the high-frequency spectral levels for a specified seismic moment. Two generalized double-corner-frequency ω 2 source spectral models are introduced, one in which two spectra are multiplied together, and another where they are added. Both models have a low-frequency dependence controlled by the seismic moment, and a high-frequency spectral level controlled by the seismic moment and a stress parameter. A wide range of spectral shapes can be obtained from these generalized spectral models, which makes them suitable for inversions of data to obtain spectral models that can be used in ground-motion simulations in situations where adequate data are not available for purely empirical determinations of ground motions, as in stable continental regions. As an example of the use of the generalized source spectral models, data from up to 40 stations from seven events, plus response spectra at two distances and two magnitudes from recent ground-motion prediction equations, were inverted to obtain the parameters controlling the spectral shapes, as well as a finite-fault factor that is used in point-source, stochastic-method simulations of ground motion. The fits to the data are comparable to or even better than those from finite-fault simulations, even for sites close to large earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

A robust calibration technique for acoustic emission systems based on momentum transfer from a ball drop

We describe a technique to estimate the seismic moment of acoustic emissions and other extremely small seismic events. Unlike previous calibration techniques, it does not require modeling of the wave propagation, sensor response, or signal conditioning. Rather, this technique calibrates the recording system as a whole and uses a ball impact as a reference source or empirical Green’s function. To correctly apply this technique, we develop mathematical expressions that link the seismic moment $M_{0}$ of internal seismic sources (i.e., earthquakes and acoustic emissions) to the impulse, or change in momentum $\Delta p $, of externally applied seismic sources (i.e., meteor impacts or, in this case, ball impact). We find that, at low frequencies, moment and impulse are linked by a constant, which we call the force‐moment‐rate scale factor $C_{F\dot{M}} = M_{0}/\Delta p$. This constant is equal to twice the speed of sound in the material from which the seismic sources were generated. Next, we demonstrate the calibration technique on two different experimental rock mechanics facilities. The first example is a saw‐cut cylindrical granite sample that is loaded in a triaxial apparatus at 40 MPa confining pressure. The second example is a 2 m long fault cut in a granite sample and deformed in a large biaxial apparatus at lower stress levels. Using the empirical calibration technique, we are able to determine absolute source parameters including the seismic moment, corner frequency, stress drop, and radiated energy of these magnitude −2.5 to −7 seismic events.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Basement and regional structure along strike of the Queen Charlotte Fault in the context of modern and historical earthquake ruptures

The Queen Charlotte fault (QCF) is a dextral transform system located offshore of southeastern Alaska and western Canada, accommodating &sim;4.4  cm/yr of relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Oblique convergence along the fault increases southward, and how this convergence is accommodated is still debated. Using seismic reflection data, we interpret offshore basement structure, faulting, and stratigraphy to provide a geological context for two recent earthquakes, an M w 7.5 strike‐slip event near Craig, Alaska, and an M w 7.8 thrust event near Haida Gwaii, Canada. We map downwarped Pacific oceanic crust near 54° N, between the two rupture zones. Observed downwarping decreases north and south of 54° N, parallel to the strike of the QCF. Bending of the Pacific plate here may have initiated with increased convergence rates due to a plate motion change at &sim;6  Ma. Tectonic reconstruction implies convergence‐driven Pacific plate flexure, beginning at 6 Ma south of a 10° bend the QCF (which is currently at 53.2° N) and lasting until the plate translated past the bend by &sim;2  Ma. Normal‐faulted approximately late Miocene sediment above the deep flexural depression at 54° N, topped by relatively undeformed Pleistocene and younger sediment, supports this model. Aftershocks of the Haida Gwaii event indicate a normal‐faulting stress regime, suggesting present‐day plate flexure and underthrusting, which is also consistent with reconstruction of past conditions. We thus favor a Pacific plate underthrusting model to initiate flexure and accommodation space for sediment loading. In addition, mapped structures indicate two possible fault segment boundaries along the QCF at 53.2° N and at 56° N.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Intertidal biological indicators of coseismic subsidence during the Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii, Canada, earthquake

The 28 October 2012 M w 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake was a megathrust earthquake along the very obliquely convergent Queen Charlotte margin of British Columbia, Canada. Coseismic deformation is not well constrained by geodesy, with only six Global Positioning System (GPS) sites and two tide gauge stations within 250 km of the rupture area. To better constrain vertical coseismic deformation, we measured the upper growth limits of two sessile intertidal organisms, which are controlled by physical conditions, relative to sea level at 25 sites 5 months after the earthquake. We measured the positions of rockweed ( Fucus distichus , 617 observations) and the common acorn barnacle ( Balanus balanoides , 686 observations). The study focused on the western side of the islands where rupture models indicated that the greatest amount of vertical displacement, but we also investigated sites well away from the inferred rupture area to provide a control on the upper limit of the organisms unaffected by vertical displacement. We also made 322 measurements of sea level to relate the growth limits to a tidal datum using the TPXO7.2 tidal model, rather than ellipsoid heights determined by GPS. Three methods of examining the data all indicate 0.4–0.6 m subsidence along the western coast of Moresby Island as a result of the 28 October 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake. Our data are, within the errors, consistent with data from two campaign GPS sites along the west coast of Haida Gwaii and with rupture models that indicate megathrust rupture offshore, but not beneath, the islands.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Validation of simulated earthquake ground motions based on evolution of intensity and frequency content

Simulated earthquake ground motions can be used in many recent engineering applications that require time series as input excitations. However, applicability and validation of simulations are subjects of debate in the seismological and engineering communities. We propose a validation methodology at the waveform level and directly based on characteristics that are expected to influence most structural and geotechnical response parameters. In particular, three time-dependent validation metrics are used to evaluate the evolving intensity, frequency, and bandwidth of a waveform. These validation metrics capture nonstationarities in intensity and frequency content of waveforms, making them ideal to address nonlinear response of structural systems. A two-component error vector is proposed to quantify the average and shape differences between these validation metrics for a simulated and recorded ground-motion pair. Because these metrics are directly related to the waveform characteristics, they provide easily interpretable feedback to seismologists for modifying their ground-motion simulation models. To further simplify the use and interpretation of these metrics for engineers, it is shown how six scalar key parameters, including duration, intensity, and predominant frequency, can be extracted from the validation metrics. The proposed validation methodology is a step forward in paving the road for utilization of simulated ground motions in engineering practice and is demonstrated using examples of recorded and simulated ground motions from the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake.

California↗

USGS2015

Improved rapid magnitude estimation for a community-based, low-cost MEMS accelerometer network

Immediately following the M w 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake, over 180 Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) low‐cost micro‐electro‐mechanical systems accelerometers were deployed in the Canterbury region. Using data recorded by this dense network from 2010 to 2013, we significantly improved the QCN rapid magnitude estimation relationship. The previous scaling relationship ( Lawrence et al. , 2014 ) did not accurately estimate the magnitudes of nearby (<35 km) events. The new scaling relationship estimates earthquake magnitudes within 1 magnitude unit of the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog magnitudes for 99% of the events tested, within 0.5 magnitude units for 90% of the events, and within 0.25 magnitude units for 57% of the events. These magnitudes are reliably estimated within 3 s of the initial trigger recorded on at least seven stations. In this report, we present the methods used to calculate a new scaling relationship and demonstrate the accuracy of the revised magnitude estimates using a program that is able to retrospectively estimate event magnitudes using archived data.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Interpretation of S waves generated by near-surface chemical explosions at SAFOD

A series of near-surface chemical explosions conducted at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) were recorded by high-frequency downhole receiver arrays in separate experiments in November 2003 and May 2005. The 2003 experiment involved &sim;100  kg shots detonated along a 46-km-long line (Hole–Ryberg line) centered on SAFOD and recorded by 32 three-component geophones in the pilot hole between 0.8 and 2.0 km depth. The 2005 experiment involved &sim;36  kg shots detonated at Parkfield Area Seismic Observatory (PASO) stations (at &sim;1–8  km offset) recorded by 80 three-component geophones in the main hole between the surface and 2.4 km depth. These data sample the downgoing seismic wavefield and constrain the shallow velocity and attenuation structure, as well as the first-order characteristics of the source. Using forward modeling on a velocity structure designed for the near field, both observed P - and S -wave energy for the PASO shots are identified with the travel times expected for direct and/or reflected phases. Larger-offset recordings from shots along the Hole–Ryberg line reveal substantial SV and SH energy, especially southwest of SAFOD from the source as indicated by P -to- S amplitude ratios. The generated SV energy is interpreted to arise chiefly from P -to- S conversions at subhorizontal discontinuities. This provides a simple mechanism for often-observed low P -to- S amplitude ratios from nuclear explosions in the far field, as originating from strong near-field wave conversions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Optimal interpolation of spatially discretized geodetic data

No abstract available.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Decay of S‐wave amplitudes with distance for earthquakes in the Charlevoix, Quebec, area: Effects of radiation pattern and directivity

The decay of the Fourier spectral amplitudes of S waves over distances of 10–80 km near Charlevoix, Quebec, was determined using waveforms from seven earthquakes with M N 3.3–5.4. The S ‐wave spectral amplitudes were corrected for site response and source amplitude by normalizing the coda‐wave spectrum at a fixed time after the origin time. The amplitude decay with distance was found to be less steep as the frequency increases from 1 to 14, contrary to what would be expected from anelastic and scattering attenuation for a point source with an isotropic radiation pattern. The decay at 14 Hz indicates that the geometrical spreading at distances less than 80 km is less steep than R −1.05 . The steeper distance decay of the low‐frequency spectrum appears to be an artifact of the radiation pattern and rupture directivity, which affect the low‐frequency amplitude more than the high frequency. Synthetic seismograms were made for a horizontally layered crust for the M w 4.6 Rivière du Loup earthquake and an M w 3.3 event. The decay with distance of the 1 Hz spectral amplitudes of the synthetics is similar to that observed for the Rivière du Loup earthquake, indicating that radiation pattern and rupture directivity are important factors in determining the attenuation with distance at 1 Hz. For the M w 3.3 earthquake, the distance decay of the 1 Hz spectral amplitudes was found to be sensitive to the focal mechanism. This study demonstrates that estimates of geometrical spreading made using 1 Hz amplitudes can be contaminated by radiation pattern and directivity effects and may not be applicable for constructing ground‐motion prediction equations for sources with other focal mechanisms and rupture behavior.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

A fault-based model for crustal deformation, fault slip-rates and off-fault strain rate in California

We invert Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity data to estimate fault slip rates in California using a fault‐based crustal deformation model with geologic constraints. The model assumes buried elastic dislocations across the region using Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault geometries. New GPS velocity and geologic slip‐rate data were compiled by the UCERF3 deformation working group. The result of least‐squares inversion shows that the San Andreas fault slips at 19–22  mm/yr along Santa Cruz to the North Coast, 25–28  mm/yr along the central California creeping segment to the Carrizo Plain, 20–22  mm/yr along the Mojave, and 20–24  mm/yr along the Coachella to the Imperial Valley. Modeled slip rates are 7–16  mm/yr lower than the preferred geologic rates from the central California creeping section to the San Bernardino North section. For the Bartlett Springs section, fault slip rates of 7–9  mm/yr fall within the geologic bounds but are twice the preferred geologic rates. For the central and eastern Garlock, inverted slip rates of 7.5 and 4.9  mm/yr, respectively, match closely with the geologic rates. For the western Garlock, however, our result suggests a low slip rate of 1.7  mm/yr. Along the eastern California shear zone and southern Walker Lane, our model shows a cumulative slip rate of 6.2–6.9  mm/yr across its east–west transects, which is &sim;1  mm/yr increase of the geologic estimates. For the off‐coast faults of central California, from Hosgri to San Gregorio, fault slips are modeled at 1–5  mm/yr, similar to the lower geologic bounds. For the off‐fault deformation, the total moment rate amounts to 0.88×10 19   N·m/yr, with fast straining regions found around the Mendocino triple junction, Transverse Ranges and Garlock fault zones, Landers and Brawley seismic zones, and farther south. The overall California moment rate is 2.76×10 19   N·m/yr, which is a 16% increase compared with the UCERF2 model.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Landslides and megathrust splay faults captured by the late Holocene sediment record of eastern Prince William Sound, Alaska

We present new marine seismic‐reflection profiles and bathymetric maps to characterize Holocene depositional patterns, submarine landslides, and active faults beneath eastern and central Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, which is the eastern rupture patch of the 1964 Mw 9.2 earthquake. We show evidence that submarine landslides, many of which are likely earthquake triggered, repeatedly released along the southern margin of Orca Bay in eastern PWS. We document motion on reverse faults during the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake and estimate late Holocene slip rates for these growth faults, which splay from the subduction zone megathrust. Regional bathymetric lineations help define the faults that extend 40–70 km in length, some of which show slip rates as great as 3.75  mm/yr. We infer that faults mapped below eastern PWS connect to faults mapped beneath central PWS and possibly onto the Alaska mainland via an en echelon style of faulting. Moderate (Mw>4) upper‐plate earthquakes since 1964 give rise to the possibility that these faults may rupture independently to potentially generate Mw 7–8 earthquakes, and that these earthquakes could damage local infrastructure from ground shaking. Submarine landslides, regardless of the source of initiation, could generate local tsunamis to produce large run‐ups along nearby shorelines. In a more general sense, the PWS area shows that faults that splay from the underlying plate boundary present proximal, perhaps independent seismic sources within the accretionary prism, creating a broad zone of potential surface rupture that can extend inland 150 km or more from subduction zone trenches.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Revisions to some parameters used in stochastic-method simulations of ground motion

The stochastic method of ground‐motion simulation specifies the amplitude spectrum as a function of magnitude ( M ) and distance ( R ). The manner in which the amplitude spectrum varies with M and R depends on physical‐based parameters that are often constrained by recorded motions for a particular region (e.g., stress parameter, geometrical spreading, quality factor, and crustal amplifications), which we refer to as the seismological model. The remaining ingredient for the stochastic method is the ground‐motion duration. Although the duration obviously affects the character of the ground motion in the time domain, it also significantly affects the response of a single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillator. Recently published updates to the stochastic method include a new generalized double‐corner‐frequency source model, a new finite‐fault correction, a new parameterization of duration, and a new duration model for active crustal regions. In this article, we augment these updates with a new crustal amplification model and a new duration model for stable continental regions. Random‐vibration theory (RVT) provides a computationally efficient method to compute the peak oscillator response directly from the ground‐motion amplitude spectrum and duration. Because the correction factor used to account for the nonstationarity of the ground motion depends on the ground‐motion amplitude spectrum and duration, we also present new RVT correction factors for both active and stable regions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

On the sensitivity of transtensional versus transpressional tectonic regimes to remote dynamic triggering by Coulomb failure

Accumulating evidence, although still strongly spatially aliased, indicates that although remote dynamic triggering of small-to-moderate (M w <5) earthquakes can occur in all tectonic settings, transtensional stress regimes with normal and subsidiary strike-slip faulting seem to be more susceptible to dynamic triggering than transpressional regimes with reverse and subsidiary strike-slip faulting. Analysis of the triggering potential of Love- and Rayleigh-wave dynamic stresses incident on normal, reverse, and strike-slip faults assuming Andersonian faulting theory and simple Coulomb failure supports this apparent difference for rapid-onset triggering susceptibility.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗