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Estimating population trends with a linear model: Technical comments

Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

Condor

Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture–recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long‐legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47–382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid.

Florida

Active anting in the Puerto Rican tanager

Anting, a bird’s intentional exposure of its body surface to chemical substances secreted by ants or other agents, has been recorded in over 20 species of birds of 40 families, mostly within the order Passeriformes. Our observations of anting in the Puerto Rico tanager ( Neospingus speculiferus ) extend the phenomenon to a new genus and the 14 th species of the Thraupidae.

The Auk

End-user needs for remote sensing wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America comprises globally important grassland and wetland ecosystems critical for numerous populations of migratory birds. Due to the importance of this region for migratory birds, and particularly waterfowl, and the threats of habitat loss due to intensifying agriculture, there is a mature and diverse system of conservation organizations, agencies, and partnerships that spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually on habitat conservation to support migratory bird populations. Remote sensing can be a powerful tool for observing and evaluating global change at large scales as well as expanding inferences from field studies to the broader landscape with statistical models. However, development and utilization of these tools has lagged behind their demand for several reasons, including concerns over spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy of products; perception of a misalignment with decision-maker needs; technological barriers such as skill sets of conservation professionals, computing resources, data access, and usability. In this report, we summarize the needs of conservation professionals and scientists who use or want to use remote sensing data products to inform science about wetland change and conservation of wetlands in the PPR. We assembled this information through several methods leading up to, during, and following a January 2026 PPR Wetland Remote Sensing Workshop. The workshop included United States and Canadian scientists, conservation professionals, and policy experts. Our goal was to bring together end-users and remote sensing product developers jointly to explore reducing the lag between product development and utilization of products to inform science and conservation. Specifically, we aimed to identify gaps in wetland remote sensing that limit effective monitoring, management, and conservation in the PPR, and to develop a framework that outlines pathways to address these gaps by fostering collaboration, improving communication networks, encouraging discussion, and building on existing and ongoing efforts. This report summarizes our participants’ descriptions of end-user needs and the outcomes of the workshop.

Prairie Pothole region

Selenium hazards in the Salton Sea environment—Summary of current knowledge to inform future wetland management

Quaternary marine and continental shales in the western United States are sources of selenium that can be loaded into the aquatic environment through mining, agricultural, and energy production processes. The mobilization of selenium from shales through agricultural irrigation has been recognized since the 1930s; however, discovery of deformities in birds and other wildlife using agricultural habitats during the 1980s spurred studies to determine the extent and effects of the contamination. Through these early studies, researchers determined that biota in the Salton Sea drainage basin was at risk from legacy selenium contamination in the Colorado River watershed. The Salton Sea and its surrounding managed and unmanaged wetlands provide vital inland habitat and trophic support for diverse assemblages of resident and migratory wildlife, and understanding regional selenium hazards for these trust species is a priority for many Federal and State agencies. The modern Salton Sea is a shallow, landlocked saline lake in Riverside and Imperial Counties (not shown) of California that is sustained by irrigation return and perennial river inflow. Changes in water transfer agreements under the 2003 Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) have resulted in reduced irrigation flow, declining lake levels, and the evolution of unmanaged wetlands in areas where drains and rivers no longer reach the Salton Sea. These wetlands provide additional habitat for some species of concern, but their potential to increase selenium hazards for trust species is largely unknown. From the 1980s to 2020, efforts to document selenium contamination and effects throughout the region have resulted in a considerable amount of selenium data from the Salton Sea and its surrounding drainage basin; however, no long-term (greater than 20 years), consistent sampling program has been established, and all data have been collected by different entities using a variety of protocols and analytical techniques. This lack of coordination has been previously documented in regional management plans and has led to difficulty in reliably assessing selenium hazards in the Salton Sea environment. This report provides a summary of the available disparate selenium information collected from water, sediment, and biota in the Salton Sea region since the 1980s and to identify data gaps that need to be filled to understand the potential effects of selenium on species of concern, including federally endangered desert pupfish ( Cyprinodon macularius ) and Yuma Ridgway’s Rail ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis; formerly Yuma Clapper Rail, Rallus longirostris yumanensis ). Available data from the Salton Sea drainage basin show that water from the Colorado River has the lowest selenium concentration of all surface water sources. All other surface water flowing into the Salton Sea has elevated selenium concentrations due to evaporation and evapotranspiration that occurs in agricultural fields and associated water delivery infrastructure or leaching of selenium from irrigated farmland soils. The Salton Sea has lower selenium concentrations because of various biogeochemical processes that recycle selenium into the sediment or volatilize it to the atmosphere; however, these mechanisms are not well defined, and it is not clear if selenium cycling will change in response to possible changes in the oxidation state of the Salton Sea bottom waters as water levels decline. Agricultural drains have the highest average selenium concentrations, but few drains have been sampled since changes in irrigation practices have occurred (due to the 2003 QSA). Groundwater selenium concentrations are variable; some wells south of the Salton Sea have selenium concentrations as high as 300 micrograms per liter (µg/L), whereas selenium concentrations are below detection in other wells. Groundwater and surface-water geothermal discharge zones around the margins of the Salton Sea and in unmanaged wetlands have not been studied in detail, and published selenium measurements are not available for these surface features. Selenium concentrations in the sediment of the Salton Sea drainage basin are highest in wetland particulate organic matter and the Salton Sea lakebed, indicating that removal of selenium from the water to the sediment has been a primary mechanism for keeping selenium concentrations low in the water column. Sediment selenium concentrations in wetlands are lower than in the Salton Sea but higher than inflowing drains and rivers, indicating the lentic wetland sites also may be important sinks for selenium because of biogeochemical processes. Sediment selenium data have not been collected in agricultural drains since changes in irrigation practices occurred (due to the 2003 QSA), and it is unknown if selenium sequestration from the water column has changed in these systems. We divided biological data into broad taxonomic categories, including primary producers, invertebrates, herpetofauna, mammals, fishes, and birds to facilitate evaluation of selenium concentrations and spatiotemporal trends observed in the Salton Sea. Overall, selenium concentrations were substantially greater in algae samples compared to all vascular plant samples combined. Median selenium concentrations in several invertebrate taxa (Chironomidae, Formicidae, Corixidae, Corbiculidae and Nereididae, and Decapoda) exceeded the maximum suggested dietary threshold of 3.0–4.0 micrograms per gram (µg/g) dry weight (dw) for predators consuming invertebrates in aquatic food webs. The greatest number of samples were collected from fish, and selenium distributions among species and locations showed that the range for most samples was lower than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency selenium criterion for aquatic life (8.5 µg/g dw whole body, 11.3 µg/g dw fillets). The median selenium concentrations for whole body fish were below the selenium criterion in most locations, except for bairdiella ( Bairdiella icistia ) from the Salton Sea and irrigation drains, a few individual tilapia spp. (family Cichlidae, including genera Tilapia, Oreochromis , and their hybrids) from the river and river outlets, and several western mosquitofish ( Gambusia affinis ) and sailfin molly ( Poecilia latipinna ) from irrigation drain outlets. For avian samples combined among years and locations, median selenium concentrations in livers from all families except waders and Ibis (family Threskiornithidae) were higher than levels expected to cause selenium toxicosis (10–20 µg/g dw), and all median egg concentrations were above or near 6.0 μg/g dw, which is a conservative threshold value for reproductive impairment. Most knowledge gaps we identified for water, sediment, and biota were interrelated, and the use of integrated approaches to address knowledge gaps can provide greater insight into the drivers behind selenium hazards. Integrated water, sediment, and biota studies could help identify cost-effective management solutions that serve multiple purposes. A comprehensive analysis of the hydrology, biogeochemistry, and food-web processes in wetlands and other habitats can inform predictive models to identify drivers of selenium bioavailability, uptake from the environment and subsequent trophic transfer, ultimately forming the basis for experimental habitat management manipulations to minimize selenium hazards to wildlife. Furthermore, a comprehensive, long-term sampling and analytical laboratory plan would enable comparison of data among different entities that are sampling at the Salton Sea. Such efforts are well suited to help fill knowledge gaps that preclude understanding of selenium hazards and future management options for biota using Salton Sea habitats, including newly formed wetlands throughout the region. All data compiled for this report are available in two U.S. Geological Survey data releases: Groover and others (2022) for water and sediment samples and De La Cruz and others (2022) for biological samples. The data releases include all publicly available data for selenium concentrations in water, sediment, and biological samples collected in and around the Salton Sea, including the Coachella and Imperial Valleys. The data releases also include previously unpublished data.

California

Influencing activity of bats by dimly lighting wind turbine surfaces with ultraviolet light

Wind energy producers need deployable devices for wind turbines that prevent bat fatalities. Based on the speculation that bats approach turbines after visually mistaking them for trees, we tested a potential light-based deterrence method. It is likely that the affected bats see ultraviolet (UV) light at low intensities. Here, we present the results of a multi-month experiment to cast dim, flickering UV light across wind turbine surfaces at night. Our objectives were to refine and test a practical system for dimly UV-illuminating turbines while testing whether the experimental UV treatment influenced the activity of bats, birds, and insects. We mounted upward-facing UV light arrays on turbines and used thermal-imaging cameras to quantify the presence and activity of night-flying animals. The results demonstrated that the turbines can be lit to the highest reaches of the blades with “invisible” UV light, and the animal responses to such experimental treatment can be concurrently monitored. The UV treatment did not significantly change nighttime bat, insect, or bird activity at the wind turbine. Our findings show how observing flying animals with thermal cameras at night can help test emerging technologies intended to variably affect their behaviors around wind turbines.

Animals

How many seabirds were killed by the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill?

After the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 24 March 1989, 36,115 dead seabirds were recovered from beaches and processed at morgues. Most or all of 1,888 live oiled seabirds brought to rehabilitation centers also died and about 3,260 oiled carcasses were never delivered to morgues. Of these 41,263 carcasses accounted for, we estimated conservatively that only 30,000 were killed by oil pollution. Carcass drift and recovery experiments conducted in the affected area during the spill and 1 year later, along with historical experiments conducted in other oceanographic regions, suggest that only a fraction (range = 4-30%) of birds killed were likely to have been recovered from beaches. Regression analysis of these drift-recovery data predicts a 15% recovery rate (r' = 0.38, P = 0.015). We recognize uncertainties in the assumptions and parameter values used to extrapolate total mortality from drift-recovery data, but we have confidence that mortality fell within the extreme range of estimates (100,000-690,000 birds killed) because these reflect a very wide range of observed and experimentally determined parameter values. Total mortality can also be estimated by comparing pre- and postspill colony population estimates. Uncertainties about these census data are greater than those associated with drift-recovery data, but nonetheless provide an independent mortality estimate of similar magnitude. Taken together, all evidence suggests that about 250,000 seabirds were killed by Exxon Valdez oil.

Alaska

Postfledging survival of European starlings exposed as nestlings to an organophosphorus insecticide

To test the hypothesis that exposure to organophosphorus (OP) insecticides reduces postfledging survival of altricial birds, 16—d—old European Starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) were weighed and orally dosed with corn oil containing 6.0 mg of dicrotophos per kilogram of body mass or an equivalent exposure of pure corn oil (controls). Two days later, each survivor was weighed again and patagially tagged for identification after fledging. Resightings of marked fledglings were made during weekly 2—d intensive observations yielding four estimates of postfledging survival. Before fledging, only OP—dosed birds died (18.5%), and OP—dosed survivors lost more mass (5.2%, P = .001) than controls (1.4%) but their masses on day 18 were only slightly lower (2% of control mean, P = .10). Brain cholinesterase activity, a sensitive indicator of OP exposure in birds, was depressed and average of 93% in OP—dosed nestlings that died compared to controls, and an average of 46% in OP—dosed nestlings alive on day 18. Age at fledging, postfledging survival, flocking behavior, and habitat use, however, did not differ between OP—dosed and control birds. The effects of the OP on the nestlings appeared to be rapid, to be reversible in survivors, and did not extend into the postfledging period. In addition, we found no relationship between body mass at fledging and postfledging survival.

Maryland

Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic

Red knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will require knowledge of population structure, migration ecology, and abundance and distribution throughout the annual cycle. We conducted a stopover population and biogeographic assessment of knots at the Altamaha River Delta, Georgia, an important stopover area in the southeastern United States. We estimated stopover population size and stopover duration during post-breeding migration in 2011 at the Altamaha study area using mark-resight data, and we inferred nonbreeding regions for this stopover population using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in feathers, and observations (sightings and captures) during boreal winter from across the hemisphere. With an integrated Bayesian analysis of all these data, we also estimated the number of birds in the southeastern United States and northern Brazil during boreal winter. For mark-resight analyses in Georgia, we made observations of marked individuals during 14 weeks from early August to early November 2011 and detected 814 individually marked birds. We used the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model and estimated the southbound passage population at approximately 23,400 red knots. In ongoing studies elsewhere, isotope samples were collected from 175 (21%) of the 814 birds detected in our study, and ≥1 sighting or capture record during boreal winter was located in data repositories for 659 birds (81%). Isotopic signatures and boreal winter records indicate that the majority (82–96%) of the birds that stopped at the Altamaha Delta spend the boreal winter in the northern part of the nonbreeding range (southeast USA, Caribbean, and northern Brazil). Knots migrating to the southeastern United States, Caribbean, or Brazil remained on the Altamaha Delta for 42 days, whereas birds migrating to Tierra del Fuego remained only 21 days. Combining our estimate of the Altamaha stopover population size (23,400 birds) and the estimated proportion in the northern nonbreeding region (82–96%), we derived a minimum estimate of the number of knots in the southeastern United States, Caribbean, and northern South America during the boreal winter: approximately 20,800 knots, of which approximately 10,400 knots occupy the southeastern United States and 5,400 occupy Brazil. Our results provide additional evidence that coastal Georgia is an important migration area for red knots, and provide information about population structure and migratory connectivity that will be valuable for conservation planning.

Georgia

Differential spring migration by male and female Western Sandpipers at interior and coastal stopover sites

Western Sandpipers Calidris mauri are differential migrants on their non-breeding areas, with females wintering farther south. Earlier passage of males in the spring has been explained by sexual differences in winter latitude (male-biased sex ratios at more northerly areas) and onset of migration (males departing earlier). We investigated sex differences during spring migration by capturing and radio-marking Western Sandpipers at two Pacific coast sites, San Francisco Bay, California and Grays Harbor, Washington and at a Great Basin interior wetland, Honey Lake, California. We monitored northward migration of 132 radio-marked birds at a network of 12 major stopover sites and 4 breeding areas. At the banding sites, we observed differences in sex by date and site, with males preceding females. We found sex differences in departure time of radio-marked birds from the banding site. their arrival time at the Copper River Delta, Alaska (our most frequently used stopover site), and in the likelihood that a stopover was used. Our data suggest that by mid to late April, migration timing becomes more compressed and sex differences are less pronounced and harder to detect.

Ardea

Quantifying Northern Goshawk diets using remote cameras and observations from blinds

Raptor diet is most commonly measured indirectly, by analyzing castings and prey remains, or directly, by observing prey deliveries from blinds. Indirect methods are not only time consuming, but there is evidence to suggest these methods may overestimate certain prey taxa within raptor diet. Remote video surveillance systems have been developed to aid in monitoring and data collection, but their use in field situations can be challenging and is often untested. To investigate diet and prey delivery rates of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis), we operated 10 remote camera systems at occupied nests during the breeding seasons of 1999 and 2000 in east-central Arizona. We collected 2458 hr of useable video and successfully identified 627 (93%) prey items at least to Class (Aves, Mammalia, or Reptilia). Of prey items identified to genus, we identified 344 (81%) mammals, 62 (15%) birds, and 16 (4%) reptiles. During camera operation, we also conducted observations from blinds at a subset of five nests to compare the relative efficiency and precision of both methods. Limited observations from blinds yielded fewer prey deliveries, and therefore, lower delivery rates (0.16 items/hr) than simultaneous video footage (0.28 items/hr). Observations from blinds resulted in fewer prey identified to the genus and species levels, when compared to data collected by remote cameras. Cameras provided a detailed and close view of nests, allowed for simultaneous recording at multiple nests, decreased observer bias and fatigue, and provided a permanent archive of data. ?? 2005 The Raptor Research Foundation, Inc.

Journal of Raptor Research

Populations, productivity, and feeding habits of seabirds at Cape Thompson, Alaska: Final report

Investigations of seabird population sizes and breeding biology were conducted at Cape Thompson from 1959 to 1961 during pre-development studies associated with the Atomic through 1982, the Alaskan Program (OCSEAP) supported determine whether changes Energy Commission’s “Project Chariot.” From 1976 Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment efforts to recensus seabirds at Cape Thompson and had occurred since the 1959-61 period. Prior to the present study, it had been 6 years since the last efforts to census seabird colonies in this area. We established a field camp at the and occupied it continuously until 31 were selected for cliff nesting species comprising the Cape Thompson complex, mouth of Ikijaktusak Creek on 2 July August 1988. Permanent study plots in four of the five discrete colonies and regular observations were made throughout the study to document attendance patterns, breeding phenology, and success of murres and kittiwakes. Periodic collections of adults offshore were used to determine the food habits of study species. Shore-based work was supplemented with offshore studies of seabird foraging from the USFWS vessel Eagle-Tiglax, 24-31 August (Fig. 2). Correlation analysis revealed negative trends in murre attendance at all Cape Thompson colonies between 1960 and 1982 or 1988, significantly so for 3 of the 5 colonies. Based on apparent changes in species composition within the colonies, Common Murres declined at a more rapid rate than Thick-billed Murres between 1960 and 1988. Combining information from all colonies, it appears that murre populations have been relatively stable since about 1979. In contrast to murres, the kittiwake population showed no significant trends between 1960 and 1982 or between 1960 and 1988. All fluctuations in kittiwake numbers documented between years were within the variability expected within years. Breeding productivity of murres was about average during 1988 (0.47 young/pair), whereas the productivity of kittiwakes was very poor (0.15 young/pair). Murres and kittiwakes fed mostly on arctic cod and sand lance distributed widely but in low concentrations (e.g., 0.1-10 g/m 3 ) UP to 1.20 km north and northwest of Cape Thompson. In the total area surveyed (225 km 2 ), only two major feeding aggregations were observed where fish school densities exceeded 15 g/ins. Forage fish densities were higher in shallow Alaska Coastal Current waters than offshore in Bering Sea waters, and piscivorous seabirds like murres and kittiwakes fed mostly in coastal waters. Reduced numbers of fish in murre and kittiwake stomachs in August and low breeding success of kittiwakes suggested that forage fish densities observed around Cape Thompson in late August were sufficient to sustain murres but were insufficient for, or inaccessible to, kittiwakes. The breeding failure of Black-legged Kittiwakes at Cape Thompson in 1988 was part throughout causes of kittiwakes of a pervasive syndrome of failure in this species observed the Bering/Chukchi seas and Gulf of Alaska in recent years. The recurrent widespread breeding failure need to be identified if are to have a role in area-wide population monitoring during the period of Alaskan OCS development by the oil and gas industry. The system of land-based plots established in 1988 is recommended for future population monitoring of cliff-nesting birds at Cape Thompson. Based on the coefficients of variation among counts observed in this study, it is estimated that 10 replicate counts per year would detect an 8% change in numbers of Thick-billed Murres between years and a 12% change in Common Murres, with 75% certainty of statistical significance at the 0.05 level. Similarly, a 9% annual change in the population of Black-legged Kittiwakes should be detectable at the 0.05 significance level given samples of 10 replicate counts of the land-based plots.

Alaska

Changes in abundance and spatial distribution of geese molting near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska: Interspecific competition or ecological change?

Goose populations molting in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska have changed in size and distribution over the past 30 years. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are relatively stable in numbers but are shifting from large, inland lakes to salt marshes. Concurrently, populations of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) have increased seven fold. Populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis and/or B. hutchinsii) are stable with little indication of distributional shifts. The lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) population is proportionally small, but increasing rapidly. Coastline erosion of the Beaufort Sea has altered tundra habitats by allowing saltwater intrusion, which has resulted in shifts in composition of forage plant species. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the observed shift in black brant distribution. Ecological change may have altered optimal foraging habitats for molting birds, or alternatively, interspecific competition between black brant and greater white-fronted geese may be excluding black brant from preferred habitats. Regardless of the causative mechanism, the observed shifts in species distributions are an important consideration for future resource planning. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Polar Biology

A double-observer method to estimate detection rate during aerial waterfowl surveys

We evaluated double-observer methods for aerial surveys as a means to adjust counts of waterfowl for incomplete detection. We conducted our study in eastern Canada and the northeast United States utilizing 3 aerial-survey crews flying 3 different types of fixed-wing aircraft. We reconciled counts of front- and rear-seat observers immediately following an observation by the rear-seat observer (i.e., on-the-fly reconciliation). We evaluated 6 a priori models containing a combination of several factors thought to influence detection probability including observer, seat position, aircraft type, and group size. We analyzed data for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) and mallards (A. platyrhynchos), which are among the most abundant duck species in this region. The best-supported model for both black ducks and mallards included observer effects. Sample sizes of black ducks were sufficient to estimate observer-specific detection rates for each crew. Estimated detection rates for black ducks were 0.62 (SE = 0.10), 0.63 (SE = 0.06), and 0.74 (SE = 0.07) for pilot-observers, 0.61 (SE = 0.08), 0.62 (SE = 0.06), and 0.81 (SE = 0.07) for other front-seat observers, and 0.43 (SE = 0.05), 0.58 (SE = 0.06), and 0.73 (SE = 0.04) for rear-seat observers. For mallards, sample sizes were adequate to generate stable maximum-likelihood estimates of observer-specific detection rates for only one aerial crew. Estimated observer-specific detection rates for that crew were 0.84 (SE = 0.04) for the pilot-observer, 0.74 (SE = 0.05) for the other front-seat observer, and 0.47 (SE = 0.03) for the rear-seat observer. Estimated observer detection rates were confounded by the position of the seat occupied by an observer, because observers did not switch seats, and by land-cover because vegetation and landform varied among crew areas. Double-observer methods with on-the-fly reconciliation, although not without challenges, offer one viable option to account for detection bias in aerial waterfowl surveys where birds are distributed at low density in remote areas that are inaccessible by ground crews. Double-observer methods, however, estimate only detection rate of animals that are potentially observable given the survey method applied. Auxiliary data and methods must be considered to estimate overall detection rate.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Comparison of methods to detect Pasteurella multocida in carrier waterfowl

We conducted laboratory challenge trials using mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) to compare methods for detecting carriers of Pasteurella multocida, the bacterium that causes avian cholera, in wild birds. Birds that survived the initial infection were euthanized at 2-4 wk intervals up to 14 wk post challenge. Isolates of P. multocida were obtained at necropsy from 23% of the birds that survived initial infection. We found that swab samples (oral, cloacal, nasal, eye, and leg joint) were most effective for detecting carrier birds up to 14 wk post infection. No detectable differences in isolation were observed for samples stored in either 10% dimethysulfoxide or brain heart infusion broth. The frequency of detecting carriers in our challenge trials appeared to be related to mortality rates observed during the trial, but was not related to a number of other factors including time after challenge, time delays in collecting tissues postmortem, and route of infection. In our trials, there was little association between antibody levels and carrier status. We concluded that swabs samples collected from recently dead birds, stored in liquid nitrogen, and processed using selective broth provide a feasible field method for detecting P. multocida carriers in wild waterfowl.

California, Nebraska

Hierarchical Bayes estimation of species richness and occupancy in spatially replicated surveys

1. Species richness is the most widely used biodiversity metric, but cannot be observed directly as, typically, some species are overlooked. Imperfect detectability must therefore be accounted for to obtain unbiased species-richness estimates. When richness is assessed at multiple sites, two approaches can be used to estimate species richness: either estimating for each site separately, or pooling all samples. The first approach produces imprecise estimates, while the second loses site-specific information. 2. In contrast, a hierarchical Bayes (HB) multispecies site-occupancy model benefits from the combination of information across sites without losing site-specific information and also yields occupancy estimates for each species. The heart of the model is an estimate of the incompletely observed presence-absence matrix, a centrepiece of biogeography and monitoring studies. We illustrate the model using Swiss breeding bird survey data, and compare its estimates with the widely used jackknife species-richness estimator and raw species counts. 3. Two independent observers each conducted three surveys in 26 1-km(2) quadrats, and detected 27-56 (total 103) species. The average estimated proportion of species detected after three surveys was 0.87 under the HB model. Jackknife estimates were less precise (less repeatable between observers) than raw counts, but HB estimates were as repeatable as raw counts. The combination of information in the HB model thus resulted in species-richness estimates presumably at least as unbiased as previous approaches that correct for detectability, but without costs in precision relative to uncorrected, biased species counts. 4. Total species richness in the entire region sampled was estimated at 113.1 (CI 106-123); species detectability ranged from 0.08 to 0.99, illustrating very heterogeneous species detectability; and species occupancy was 0.06-0.96. Even after six surveys, absolute bias in observed occupancy was estimated at up to 0.40. 5. Synthesis and applications. The HB model for species-richness estimation combines information across sites and enjoys more precise, and presumably less biased, estimates than previous approaches. It also yields estimates of several measures of community size and composition. Covariates for occupancy and detectability can be included. We believe it has considerable potential for monitoring programmes as well as in biogeography and community ecology.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Interactions of nutrients, plant growth and herbivory in a mangrove ecosystem

The effect of nutrient enrichment of red mangroves ( Rhizophora mangle ) was studied by comparing two mangrove—covered islands in the Indian River at Ft. Pierce, Florida, USA, one (high nutrient) with and one (low nutrient) without a breeding colony of pelicans and egrets. Repeated measurements taken on > 100 tagged branches in each area revealed higher growth rates at the high nutrient site. Trees at the high nutrient site showed greater additions of (1) leaves; (2) reproductive parts; (3) new lateral branches; and (4) larger increments to existing stems. Growth in the fertilized stand also began earlier in the year and had a second maximum not shared by the low nutrient area. Both leaves and fruits at the high nutrient site were richer in nitrogen. More striking than the effects on plant growth, however, was the proportionately much greater stimulation of herbivory by insects in response to nutrient enrichment. Larvae of the five lepidopteran species that we observed feeding on buds or leaves were either more abundant or only present in the high nutrient area, as was the scolytid beetle that infested seedlings before they dropped from the parent tree. This difference in herbivory between sites disappeared when the birds seasonally migrated away from their nesting areas at the high nutrient site. This observation and the demonstration that the mangrove skipper Phocides pigmalion attains a higher growth efficiency on high nutrient leaves are both consistent with the hypothesis that increased nutritive value of vegetation (correlated with the increased concentration of nitrogen) is responsible for the 4x greater losses to herbivores in the high nutrient. Implications for environmental management and in more complex communities are discussed.

Florida

Thermal adaptiveness of plumage color in screech owls

Clinal variation in the relative proportions of red and gray plum- age phases in Screech Owls ( Otus asio ) was analyzed by Owen (1963) and Marshall (1967). This variation was well known prior to Owen's work, but was misinterpreted (Baird, et al. 1874, Hasbrouck 1893, Allen 1893).] Laurel VanCamp and Charles Henny (MS) have 30 years of data on a northern Ohio Screech Owl population. They observed an over- winter decline (from about 25% to 15%) in the proportion of red phase birds in the winter of 1951-52. This decline was correlated with a severe winter of above normal snowfall and below average temperatures. They examined banding and recovery data and found overwinter survival of red and gray birds to be the same except for this one severe winter when 44% more red phase birds were lost than grays (VanCamp and Henny MS). Differential mortality was reported by Gullion and Marshall (1968) for red and gray phase Ruffed Grouse ( Bonasa umbellus ) where snow conditions for roosting is apparently the critical factor for grouse overwinter survival and is related to predation. Snow- roosting has not, to our knowledge, been observed in Screech Owls. VanCamp and Henny (MS) discuss the observations of Ruffed Grouse and Screech Owls and suggest that possible thermoregulatory differences between red and gray phase birds could account for differential overwinter survival. Our objective was to test for differences between color phase in oxygen uptake at several ambient temperatures. We hypothesized that oxygen uptake would be greater by red phase birds, especially at lower temperatures.

The Auk