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Book review: Analysis of capture–recapture data

Analysis of Capture–Recapture Data by McCrea and Morgan is an excellent, easy to read monograph about capture–recapture models. In this book, the authors provide a concise overview of traditional closed population capture–recapture models (Models M0, Mb, Mh, etc.), individual covariate models, and open population models such as the Cormack–Jolly–Seber, Jolly–Seber models, multi-state models, and more recent developments such as occupancy models, state-space models, and integrated population models. The authors write “In this book we aim to cover the many modern developments in the area of capture–recapture and related models, and to set them in historical context of relevant research over the past 100 years.” The book does a good job of achieving this objective. And it is a very easy to read because it is well organized and the writing is clear and concise. I would recommend this book as a reference for the quantitative ecologist or statistician interested in knowing what’s out there. Review info: Analysis of Capture–Recapture Data. By Rachel S. McCrea and Byron J. T. Morgan, 2015. ISBN: 978-14398-6590, xx+292 pp.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme

The ecology of river ice

Many of the world's rivers are ice-covered during winter months but increasing evidence indicates that the extent of river ice will shift substantially as winters warm. However, our knowledge of rivers during winter lags far behind that of the growing season, limiting our understanding of how ice loss will affect rivers. Physical, chemical, and biological processes change from headwaters to large rivers; thus, we expect ice processes and resulting effects on the ecology of rivers could also vary with river size, as a result of the associated changes in geomorphology, temperature regimes, and connectivity. To conceptualize these relationships, we review typically disparate literature on ice processes and winter ecology and compare what is known in the smallest and largest rivers. In doing so, we show that our ability to link ice with ecology across river networks is made difficult by a primary focus on ice processes in larger rivers and a lack of study of ecosystem processes during winter. To address some of these gaps, we provide new scenarios of river ice loss and analyses of how the annual importance of winter gross primary productivity (GPP) varies with river size. We show projected ice loss varied with large-scale watershed characteristics such as north-south orientation and that the importance of winter to annual GPP was greatest in the smallest rivers. Finally, we highlight information needed to fill knowledge gaps on winter across river networks and improve our understanding of how rivers may change as climate and ice regimes shift.

JGR Biogeosciences

The sterile-male-release technique in Great Lakes sea lamprey management

The parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) has been a serious pest since its introduction into the Great Lakes, where it contributed to severe imbalances in the fish communities by selectively removing large predators (Smith 1968; Christie 1974; Schneider et al.1996). Since the 1950s, restoration and maintenance of predator-prey balance has depended on the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) sea lamprey management program. Initially, management relied primarily on stream treatments with a selective lampricide to kill larvae, on barriers to migration, and on trapping to remove potential spawners (Smith and Tibbles 1980). By the late 1970s, however, it was clear that the future of sea lamprey management lay in development of a larger array of control strategies, including more alternatives to lampricide applications (Sawyer 1980). Since then the only new alternative to chemical control to reach operational status is the release of sterilized male sea lampreys. Research on the concept began at the USGS, Hammond Bay Biological Station in Millersburg, MI (HBBS) during the 1970s (Hanson and Manion 1980). Development and evaluation continued through the 1980s, leading to the release of sterilized males in Great Lakes tributaries since 1991 (Twohey et al. 2003a). The objectives of this paper are 1) to review the implementation and evaluations of sterile-male-release technique (SMRT) as it is being applied against sea lampreys in the Great Lakes, 2) to review our current understanding of its efficacy, and 3) to identify additional research areas and topics that would increase either the efficacy of SMRT or expand its geographic potential for application.

Report

Proceedings of the fourth conference on research in California's National Parks

The papers in this proceedings were selected from the 63 presentations given at the Fourth Biennial Conference on Research in National Parks in California. The overall theme for this meeting was a recurring one: “The Integration of Research into National Park Service Resource Management Decisions.” The conference was held at the University of California, Davis, on 10-12 September 1991 and was sponsored by the National Park Service Cooperative Park Studies Unit and the Institute of Ecology at the University of California, Davis. This proceedings highlights a variety of research and resource management efforts to improve the stewardship of our most treasured landscapes. In the future, it will become increasingly more important for federal and state agencies, university scientists and students, and the public to cooperate fully to improve the quantity and quality of science and resource management programs in units of the National Park System. As many of the papers in this proceedings attest, we must look beyond the political boundaries of protected landscapes to incorporate entire ecosystems. Competing resource uses inside and outside parklands must be reexamined to weave a common thread of biological conservation. As scientists, our studies must bridge the gap from plots to landscapes and from landscapes to regions. Our studies must built on information from species and populations to ecosystems and the processes that influence them. The papers in this proceedings are modest but important contribution to those ideals. Each paper represents original research and has been peer-reviewed. Many agencies, institutions, and individuals contributed in the development of this product. In the planning stages, National Park Service Western Region scientists provided advice and assistance in structuring the conference format. University of California, Davis, graduate students, directed by Sharon Lynch, assisted with logistics at the meeting, and provided general assistance with the paper sessions. We thank the students, technicians, and support staff who labored unselfishly behind the scenes to collect data and transfer information important to the completion of each paper. Financial support for this publication was provided with funds from the Western Region Resource Management and Resource Program and the Washington Office Servicewide Publications Program of the National Park Service. We thank Denny Fenn, Stan Albright, Bruce Kilgore, Dave Cherry, Gene Hester, and Donna O'Leary of the National Park Service and Charles Goldman of the University of California, Davis, Institute of Ecology for their support throughout the development of the proceedings. Finally, we are entering into a new age of research in the U.S. Department of the Interior. Recently, plans were announced for the creation of the National Biological Survey, dedicated to improving the quantity and quality of research necessary for the wise stewardship of our natural resources and wildlands. We welcome our new partners and pledge our full support to both the new and old agencies. The papers presented here--and past research efforts in national parks--provide an important stepping stone to the future. While many of us will be transferred administratively to the National Biological Survey, our emotional ties to the National Park Service mission of preserving resources for future generations will remain with us forever.

California

Ecological engineering with oysters enhances coastal resilience efforts

Coastal areas are especially vulnerable to habitat loss, sea-level rise, and other climate change effects. Oyster-dominated eco-engineered reefs have been promoted as integral components of engineered habitats enhancing coastal resilience through provision of numerous ecological, morphological, and socio-economic services. However, the assessed ‘success’ of these eco-engineered oyster reefs remains variable across projects and locations, with their general efficacy in promoting coastal resilience, along with related services, often mixed at best. Understanding factors influencing the success of these eco-engineered habitats as valuable coastal management tools could greatly inform related future efforts. Here, we review past studies incorporating reef-building oysters for coastal resilience and enhanced ecosystem services. Our aims are to better understand their utility and limitations, along with critical knowledge gaps to better advance future applicability. Success depends largely on site selection, informed by physical, chemical and biological factors, and adjacent habitats and bottom types. Better understanding of oyster metapopulation dynamics, tolerance and adaptation to changing conditions, and interactions with adjacent habitats will help to better identify suitable locations, and design more effective eco-engineered reefs. These eco-engineered reefs provide a useful tool to assist in developing coastal resilience in the face of climate change and sea level rise.

Ecological Engineering

Emergent biogeochemical risks from Arctic permafrost degradation

The Arctic cryosphere is collapsing, posing overlapping environmental risks. In particular, thawing permafrost threatens to release biological, chemical and radioactive materials that have been sequestered for tens to hundreds of thousands of years. As these constituents re-enter the environment, they have the potential to disrupt ecosystem function, reduce the populations of unique Arctic wildlife and endanger human health. Here, we review the current state of the science to identify potential hazards currently frozen in Arctic permafrost. We also consider the cascading natural and anthropogenic processes that may compound the impacts of these risks, as it is unclear whether the highly adapted Arctic ecosystems have the resilience to withstand new stresses. We conclude by recommending research priorities to address these underappreciated risks.

Nature Climate Change

Practices of biological soil crust rehabilitation in China: Experiences and challenges

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are a central component of dryland ecosystems. However, they are highly vulnerable to disturbance and natural recovery may be slow. Therefore, finding ways to enhance the reestablishment of biocrusts after disturbance has been of great interest to researchers. This article provides a review of the laboratory cultivation and field inoculations of biocrust materials in China (mostly published in Chinese). Larger filamentous cyanobacteria (e.g. Microcoleus ) are relatively easy, although slow, to grow in culture compared to other biocrust components. Thus, most researchers have focused their efforts on the cyanobacteria and a few species of mosses that are also easily grown but at smaller scale. For all the studies, a small amount of biocrust material was collected and its biomass enhanced under controlled conditions. However, the enhancement was done using various methods and techniques in different regions. These materials were then applied to disturbed field sites, again with various methods. Results show that keeping the inoculated soil surface wet for some time period after inoculation was crucial for restoration success. Cyanobacterial establishment was improved by installing automatic sprinkling using micro‐irrigation techniques and/or physical structures that reduced sediment moving onto the inoculated area. Experimental applications in China showed that cyanobacteria can be successfully inoculated at a large scale (hundreds of ha). Moss inoculation, on the other hand, was only accomplished at a small scale (several m 2 ). To assess whether biocrust restoration can enhance the establishment of a self‐supporting ecosystem, further research is needed on how inoculation affects vegetation diversity and structure and ecological processes.

Restoration Ecology

Study design and methods of the Wells and Enteric disease Transmission (WET) Trial, a randomised controlled trial

Introduction: The burden of disease attributed to drinking water from private wells is not well characterised. The Wells and Enteric disease Transmission trial is the first randomised controlled trial to estimate the burden of disease that can be attributed to the consumption of untreated private well water. To estimate the attributable incidence of gastrointestinal illness (GI) associated with private well water, we will test if the household treatment of well water by ultraviolet light (active UV device) versus sham (inactive UV device) decreases the incidence of GI in children under 5 years of age. Methods and analysis: The trial will enrol (on a rolling basis) 908 families in Pennsylvania, USA, that rely on private wells and have a child 3 years old or younger. Participating families are randomised to either an active whole-house UV device or a sham device. During follow-up, families will respond to weekly text messages to report the presence of signs and symptoms of gastrointestinal or respiratory illness and will be directed to an illness questionnaire when signs/symptoms are present. These data will be used to compare the incidence of waterborne illness between the two study groups. A randomly selected subcohort submits untreated well water samples and biological specimens (stool and saliva) from the participating child in both the presence and absence of signs/symptoms. Samples are analysed for the presence of common waterborne pathogens (stool and water) or immunoconversion to these pathogens (saliva). Ethics: Approval has been obtained from Temple University’s Institutional Review Board (Protocol 25665). The results of the trial will be published in peer-reviewed journals. Trial registration number: NCT04826991.

Pennsylvania

A test of the variable circular-plot method where exact density of a bird population was known

Variable circular-plot (VCP) counts are statistically more sound than point counts because they are adjusted for the probability of detecting birds at different distances and under different conditions. However, many ornithologists use point counts rather than VCP counts because they believe that assumptions of the VCP method are almost always violated, leading to poor results, and because earlier field tests using ad hoc analysis methods gave variable and relatively poor results. We conducted the first field test of the VCP method where the exact density of a forest bird was known as part of re-establishing the 'Oma'o Myadestes obscurus in former range. All 'Oma'o in the new population were intensively monitored by radio telemetry so that the number present during four VCP censuses was known. Excluding the first census, when three of the four detections were of the same individual, differences in VCP density estimates ranged from -34% to +24% (mean 0%) even though =18 'Oma'o were detected per survey. We review critical assumptions of the VCP method and make recommendations for data analysis based on our experience with the method on Pacific islands.

Pacific Conservation Biology

Instream flows to assist the recovery of endangered fishes of the upper Colorado River basin

The riverine landscape of the upper Colorado River basin has been extensively modified by dams, diversions, revetments, and water abstractions. These changes, probably coupled with the introduction of many nonnative fishes, have compromised the existence of four of the native fishes (Colorado River squawfish Ptychocheilus lucius, humpback chub Gila cypha, bonytail chub Gila elegans, and razorback sucker Xyrauchen texanus) of the river system. Efforts to recover these endangered fishes have emphasized reregulation of flows to provide better habitat conditions than existed during the last half century, when ranges and abundances of the fishes declined significantly. Contention emerged, however, with regard to the efficacy of methods used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to justify flow recommendations to protect the endangered fishes. The purpose of this study was to review the science pertaining to the issue of flow provision, to identify critical uncertainties, and to provide recommendations for determining the instream flow needs of the endangered fishes.

Biological Report

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published since January 2015

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal government technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. The final search was conducted on January 6, 2018, and application of our criteria resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography ( https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php ) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to the original publications. A substantial body of literature has been compiled based on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

Open-File Report

Conservation buffer distance estimates for Greater Sage-Grouse: a review

This report was prepared at the request of the U.S. Department of the Interior and is a compilation and summary of published scientific studies that evaluate the influence of anthropogenic activities and infrastructure on Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) populations. The purpose of this report is to provide a convenient reference for land managers and others who are working to develop biologically relevant and socioeconomically practical buffer distances around sage-grouse habitats. The framework for this summary includes (1) addressing the potential effects of anthropogenic land use and disturbances on sage-grouse populations, (2) providing ecologically based interpretations of evidence from the scientific literature, and (3) informing implementation of conservation buffers around sage-grouse communal breeding locations—known as leks. We do not make specific management recommendations but instead provide summarized information, citations, and interpretation of findings available in scientific literature. We also recognize that because of variation in populations, habitats, development patterns, social context, and other factors, for a particular disturbance type, there is no single distance that is an appropriate buffer for all populations and habitats across the sage-grouse range. Thus, we report values for distances upon which protective, conservation buffers might be based, in conjunction with other considerations. We present this information for six categories of land use or disturbance typically found in land-use plans which are representative of the level of definition available in the scientific literature: surface disturbance (multiple causes; immediate and cumulative influences); linear features (roads); energy development (oil, gas, wind, and solar); tall structures (electrical, communication, and meteorological); low structures (fences and buildings); and activities (noise and related disruptions). Minimum and maximum distances for observed effects found in the scientific literature, as well as a distance range for possible conservation buffers based on interpretation of multiple sources, expert knowledge of the authors regarding affected areas, and the distribution of birds around leks are provided for each of the six categories These interpreted values for buffer distances are an attempt to balance the extent of protected areas with multiple land-use requirements using estimates of the distribution of sage-grouse habitat. Conservation efforts may then focus on the overlap between potential effect zone and important habitats. We provide a brief discussion of some of the most relevant literature for each category. References associated with the minimum and maximum values are identified in the References Cited section with corresponding symbols. Distances in this report reflect radii around lek locations because these locations are typically (although not universally) known, and management plans often refer to these locations. Lek sites are most representative of breeding habitats, but their locations are focal points within populations, and as such, protective buffers around lek sites can offer a useful solution for identifying and conserving seasonal habitats required by sage-grouse throughout their life cycle. However, knowledge of local and regional patterns of seasonal habitat use may improve conservation of those important areas, especially regarding the distribution and utilization of nonbreeding season habitats (which may be underrepresented in lek-based designations).

Open-File Report

More than a decade of conservation biology and research in Sonora and Arizona: The endangered Sonoran Tiger Salamander and threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog

Only two species of amphibians from Arizona are listed under the federal Endangered Species Act. The Sonoran Tiger Salamander was listed as an endangered species without critical habitat in 1997. The Chiricahua Leopard Frog was listed as a threatened species in 2002; critical habitat was designated in 2012. In this review, we summarize conservation and research conducted on these two species with a focus on work in the southeastern Arizona/northeastern Sonora borderlands, but we also touch upon seminal work on the Chiricahua Leopard Frog at Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR).

Arizona, Sonora

Methylmercury effects on birds: A review, meta-analysis, and development of toxicity reference values for injury assessment based on tissue residues and diet

Birds are used as bioindicators of environmental mercury (Hg) contamination, and toxicity reference values are needed for injury assessments. We conducted a comprehensive review, summarized data from 168 studies, performed a series of Bayesian hierarchical meta-analyses, and developed new toxicity reference values for the effects of methylmercury (MeHg) on birds using a benchmark dose analysis framework. Lethal and sublethal effects of MeHg on birds were categorized into nine biologically relevant endpoint categories and three age classes. Effective Hg concentrations where there was a 10% reduction (EC10) in the production of juvenile offspring (0.55 µg/g wet wt adult blood-equivalent Hg concentrations, 80% credible interval: [0.33, 0.85]), histology endpoints (0.49 [0.15, 0.96] and 0.61 [0.09, 2.48]), and biochemical markers (0.77 [<0.25, 2.12] and 0.57 [0.35, 0.92]) were substantially lower than those for survival (2.97 [2.10, 4.73] and 5.24 [3.30, 9.55]) and behavior (6.23 [1.84, >13.42] and 3.11 [2.10, 4.64]) of juveniles and adults, respectively. Within the egg age class, survival was the most sensitive endpoint (EC10 = 2.02 µg/g wet wt adult blood-equivalent Hg concentrations [1.39, 2.94] or 1.17 µg/g fresh wet wt egg-equivalent Hg concentrations [0.80, 1.70]). Body morphology was not particularly sensitive to Hg. We developed toxicity reference values using a combined survival and reproduction endpoints category for juveniles, because juveniles were more sensitive to Hg toxicity than eggs or adults. Adult blood-equivalent Hg concentrations (µg/g wet wt) and egg-equivalent Hg concentrations (µg/g fresh wet wt) caused low injury to birds (EC1) at 0.09 [0.04, 0.17] and 0.04 [0.01, 0.08], moderate injury (EC5) at 0.6 [0.37, 0.84] and 0.3 [0.17, 0.44], high injury (EC10) at 1.3 [0.94, 1.89] and 0.7 [0.49, 1.02], and severe injury (EC20) at 3.2 [2.24, 4.78] and 1.8 [1.28, 2.79], respectively. Maternal dietary Hg (µg/g dry wt) caused low injury to juveniles at 0.16 [0.05, 0.38], moderate injury at 0.6 [0.29, 1.03], high injury at 1.1 [0.63, 1.87], and severe injury at 2.4 [1.42, 4.13]. We found few substantial differences in Hg toxicity among avian taxonomic orders, including for controlled laboratory studies that injected Hg into eggs. Our results can be used to quantify injury to birds caused by Hg pollution.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Book review: Bird census techniques, Second edition

Conservation concerns, federal mandates to monitor birds, and citizen science programs have spawned a variety of surveys that collect information on bird populations. Unfortunately, all too frequently these surveys are poorly designed and use inappropriate counting methods. Some of the flawed approaches reflect a lack of understanding of statistical design; many ornithologists simply are not aware that many of our most entrenched counting methods (such as point counts) cannot appropriately be used in studies that compare densities of birds over space and time. It is likely that most of the readers of The Condor have participated in a bird population survey that has been criticized for poor sampling methods. For example, North American readers may be surprised to read in Bird Census Techniques that the North American Breeding Bird Survey 'is seriously flawed in its design,' and that 'Analysis of trends is impossible from points that are positioned along roads' (p. 109). Our conservation efforts are at risk if we do not acknowledge these concerns and improve our survey designs. Other surveys suffer from a lack of focus. In Bird Census Techniques, the authors emphasize that all surveys require clear statements of objectives and an understanding of appropriate survey designs to meet their objectives. Too often, we view survey design as the realm of ornithologists who know the life histories and logistical issues relevant to counting birds. This view reflects pure hubris: survey design is a collaboration between ornithologists, statisticians, and managers, in which goals based on management needs are met by applying statistical principles for design to the biological context of the species of interest. Poor survey design is often due to exclusion of some of these partners from survey development. Because ornithologists are too frequently unaware of these issues, books such as Bird Census Techniques take on added importance as manuals for educating ornithologists about the relevance of survey design and methods and the often subtle interdisciplinary nature of surveys. Review info: Bird Census Techniques, Second Edition. By Colin J. Bibby, Neil D. Burgess, David A. Hill, and Simon H. Mustoe. 2000. Academic Press, London, UK. xvii 1 302 pp. ISBN 0- 12-095831-7.

Condor

Paraquat Hazards to Fish, Wildlife, and Invertebrates: A Synoptic Review

Paraquat (1,1`dimethyl4,4`bipyridinium) are broad-spectrum contact plant killers and herbage desiccants that were introduced commercially during the past 25 years. Today, they rank among the most widely used herbicides globally and are frequently used in combination with other herbicides. The recommended paraquat field application rates for terrestrial weed control usually range between 0.28 and 1.12 kg/ha (0.25 and 1.0 lb/acre), and for aquatic weed control the range is 0.12.0 mg/l. Paraquat in surface soils generally photodecomposes in several weeks, but paraquat in subsurface soils and sediments may remain bound and biologically unavailablefor many years without significant degradation. Paraquat is not significantly accumulated by earthworms and other species of soil invertebrates and is usually excreted rapidly by higher animals; however, delayed toxic effects including death of birds and mammals are common. At concentrations below the recommended application rate, paraquat is embryotoxic to developing eggs of migratory waterfowl and adversely affects sensitive species of freshwater algae and macrophytes, larvae of crustaceans and frog tadpoles and carp. Sensitive species of birds are negatively affected at daily dose rates of 10 mg/kg body weight or when fed diets containing 20 mg/kg ration or drinking water containing 40 mg/l.

Contaminant Hazard Reviews

Chapter 6: Climate change, wildlife, and wildlife habitats in the Oregon Coast Range

Climate change is likely to have profound effects on wildlife species within the Oregon Coast Adaptation Partnership (OCAP) assessment area, although the direction and magnitude of effects are likely to vary across species. Increased mean and extreme temperatures, especially during summer, may cause shifts in plant and animal species ranges, reduce habitat for some temperature-sensitive wildlife, alter plant phenology and the timing of available food resources, and affect species interactions (e.g., predation, competition). Altered timing of precipitation, summer drought, loss of fog, increased flooding events, earlier snowmelt, and rising sea level may reduce plant productivity, increase tree mortality, shift plant species composition, and lead to reduced wildlife habitat and habitat quality for some forests, riparian areas, wetlands, meadows, estuaries, and beaches. In addition, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire and insect outbreaks may reduce the extent of late-successional forest, reduce habitat connectivity, and increase the spread of invasive species. The biggest change expected for the assessment area is an increase in area where climatic conditions favor coastal mixed forest and a large reduction in area favoring montane conifer forest. Although actual changes in forest types may not necessarily occur by the end of the 21st century, climate change may add physiological and behavioral stress to wildlife. Some wildlife species will be able to persist in place and adapt to new conditions; some may be able to migrate to find suitable habitat; and some may be greatly reduced or extirpated from the assessment area or even go extinct. Shifts in major tree and shrub species will play a major role in food, den, and cover availability for wildlife. Rising sea level will reduce low-elevation habitats along the coast. An increase in the frequency of high-severity weather events will increase frequency and magnitude of flooding, including debris flow events. Coupled with increased temperatures during summer, this may reduce or fragment important ecosystems for aquatic and semi-aquatic species. Evaluation of the vulnerabilities of nine wildlife species based on literature reviews suggests that each species has life-history attributes that can lead to resilience or vulnerability to climate change effects. Depending on long-term objectives, several broad adaptation strategies focus on protecting refugia, establishing redundant wildlife strongholds with large-scale connectivity, and promoting structural and biological complexity.

Oregon