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Full Equations (FEQ) model for the solution of the full, dynamic equations of motion for one-dimensional unsteady flow in open channels and through control structures

The Full EQuations (FEQ) model is a computer program for solution of the full, dynamic equations of motion for one-dimensional unsteady flow in open channels and through control structures. A stream system that is simulated by application of FEQ is subdivided into stream reaches (branches), parts of the stream system for which complete information on flow and depth are not required (dummy branches), and level-pool reservoirs. These components are connected by special features; that is, hydraulic control structures, including junctions, bridges, culverts, dams, waterfalls, spillways, weirs, side weirs, and pumps. The principles of conservation of mass and conservation of momentum are used to calculate the flow and depth throughout the stream system resulting from known initial and boundary conditions by means of an implicit finite-difference approximation at fixed points (computational nodes). The hydraulic characteristics of (1) branches including top width, area, first moment of area with respect to the water surface, conveyance, and flux coefficients and (2) special features (relations between flow and headwater and (or) tail-water elevations, including the operation of variable-geometry structures) are stored in function tables calculated in the companion program, Full EQuations UTiLities (FEQUTL). Function tables containing other information used in unsteady-flow simulation (boundary conditions, tributary inflows or outflows, gate settings, correction factors, characteristics of dummy branches and level-pool reservoirs, and wind speed and direction) are prepared by the user as detailed in this report. In the iterative solution scheme for flow and depth throughout the stream system, an interpolation of the function tables corresponding to the computational nodes throughout the stream system is done in the model. FEQ can be applied in the simulation of a wide range of stream configurations (including loops), lateral-inflow conditions, and special features. The accuracy and convergence of the numerical routines in the model are demonstrated for the case of laboratory measurements of unsteady flow in a sewer pipe. Verification of the routines in the model for field data on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois also is briefly discussed. The basic principles of unsteady-flow modeling and the relation between steady flow and unsteady flow are presented. Assumptions and the limitations of the model also are presented. The schematization of the stream system and the conversion of the physical characteristics of the stream reaches and a wide range of special features into function tables for model applications are described. The modified dynamic-wave equation used in FEQ for unsteady flow in curvilinear channels with drag on minor hydraulic structures and channel constrictions determined from an equivalent energy slope is developed. The matrix equation relating flows and depths at computational nodes throughout the stream system by the continuity (conservation of mass) and modified dynamic-wave equations is illustrated for four sequential examples. The solution of the matrix equation by Newton's method is discussed. Finally, the input for FEQ and the error messages and warnings issued are presented.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

A methodology to estimate CO2 and energy gas storage resources in depleted conventional gas reservoirs

Depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs are subsurface geological structures capable of sequestering vast quantities of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as well as storing other energy gases for later usage, such as natural gas, and potentially hydrogen (H 2 ). Here we outline a methodology to quantify multi-gas storage resources in depleted conventional gas reservoirs for usage in assessments by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) at the scale of sedimentary basins. The methodology consists first of quantifying accessible pore volume in a depleted reservoir for natural gas storage using up to three equations. Input data are derived from commonly reported or estimated reservoir parameters and natural gas production volumes, and equations may be combined in linear models to improve pore volume estimates. Storage estimates from these equations are tested and validated for 31 reservoirs in the Michigan Basin Province, USA that were previously converted to underground gas storage facilities and have known (federally reported) natural gas storage capacities. Secondly, natural gas storage capacities can be transformed via fluid substitution calculations to estimate the storage resources for non-native fluids, applied here for, CO 2 , H 2 , and methane-H 2 blends, accounting for molecule-specific deviations from ideal gas behavior at reservoir pressures and temperatures as well as differing storage efficiencies. Importantly, the storage of non-native fluids may not be appropriate in all depleted gas reservoir settings due to potential risks like leakage, in particular in the case of H 2 storage, requiring additional knowledge of caprock sealing capacity. Given this caveat, we demonstrate the fluid substitution method for natural gas reservoirs of the Northern Niagaran Reef and Southern Niagaran Reef USGS plays in the Michigan Basin Province, as these trends of Silurian pinnacle reefs are capped with tight-sealing evaporite facies. The deterministic equations outlined from this methodology can be incorporated into future probabilistic USGS gas storage assessments for CO 2 , H 2 , and natural gas resources in the United States.

Michigan

Source mechanism of long-period events at Kusatsu-Shirane Volcano, Japan, inferred from waveform inversion of the effective excitation functions

We investigate the source mechanism of long-period (LP) events observed at Kusatsu-Shirane Volcano, Japan, based on waveform inversions of their effective excitation functions. The effective excitation function, which represents the apparent excitation observed at individual receivers, is estimated by applying an autoregressive filter to the LP waveform. Assuming a point source, we apply this method to seven LP events the waveforms of which are characterized by simple decaying and nearly monochromatic oscillations with frequency in the range 1-3 Hz. The results of the waveform inversions show dominant volumetric change components accompanied by single force components, common to all the events analyzed, and suggesting a repeated activation of a sub-horizontal crack located 300 m beneath the summit crater lakes. Based on these results, we propose a model of the source process of LP seismicity, in which a gradual buildup of steam pressure in a hydrothermal crack in response to magmatic heat causes repeated discharges of steam from the crack. The rapid discharge of fluid causes the collapse of the fluid-filled crack and excites acoustic oscillations of the crack, which produce the characteristic waveforms observed in the LP events. The presence of a single force synchronous with the collapse of the crack is interpreted as the release of gravitational energy that occurs as the slug of steam ejected from the crack ascends toward the surface and is replaced by cooler water flowing downward in a fluid-filled conduit linking the crack and the base of the crater lake. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Land use and habitat conditions across the southwestern Wyoming sagebrush steppe: development impacts, management effectiveness and the distribution of invasive plants

For the past several years, USGS has taken a multi-faceted approach to investigating the condition and trends in sagebrush steppe ecosystems. This recent effort builds upon decades of work in semi-arid ecosystems providing a specific, applied focus on the cumulative impacts of expanding human activities across these landscapes. Here, we discuss several on-going projects contributing to these efforts: (1) mapping and monitoring the distribution and condition of shrub steppe communities with local detail at a regional scale, (2) assessing the relationships between specific, land-use features (for example, roads, transmission lines, industrial pads) and invasive plants, including their potential (environmentally defined) distribution across the region, and (3) monitoring the effects of habitat treatments on the ecosystem, including wildlife use and invasive plant abundance. This research is focused on the northern sagebrush steppe, primarily in Wyoming, but also extending into Montana, Colorado, Utah and Idaho. The study area includes a range of sagebrush types (including, Artemisia tridentata ssp. tridentata, Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, Artemisia tridentata ssp. vaseyana, Artemisia nova) and other semi-arid shrubland types (for example, Sarcobatus vermiculatus, Atriplex confertifolia, Atriplex gardneri), impacted by extensive interface between steppe ecosystems and industrial energy activities resulting in a revealing multiple-variable analysis. We use a combination of remote sensing (AWiFS (1 Any reference to platforms, data sources, equipment, software, patented or trade-marked methods is for information purposes only. It does not represent endorsement of the U.S.D.I., U.S.G.S. or the authors), Landsat and Quickbird platforms), Geographic Information System (GIS) design and data management, and field-based, replicated sampling to generate multiple scales of data representing the distribution of shrub communities for the habitat inventory. Invasive plant sampling focused on the interaction between human infrastructure and weedy plant distributions in southwestern Wyoming, while also capturing spatial variability associated with growing conditions and management across the region. In a separate but linked study, we also sampled native and invasive composition of recent and historic habitat treatments. Here, we summarize findings of this ongoing work, highlighting patterns and relationships between vegetation (native and invasive), land cover, landform, and land-use patterns in the sagebrush steppe.

Wyoming

Operational evapotranspiration mapping using remote sensing and weather datasets: A new parameterization for the SSEB approach

The increasing availability of multi-scale remotely sensed data and global weather datasets is allowing the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) at multiple scales. We present a simple but robust method that uses remotely sensed thermal data and model-assimilated weather fields to produce ET for the contiguous United States (CONUS) at monthly and seasonal time scales. The method is based on the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model, which is now parameterized for operational applications, renamed as SSEBop. The innovative aspect of the SSEBop is that it uses predefined boundary conditions that are unique to each pixel for the "hot" and "cold" reference conditions. The SSEBop model was used for computing ET for 12 years (2000-2011) using the MODIS and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data streams. SSEBop ET results compared reasonably well with monthly eddy covariance ET data explaining 64% of the observed variability across diverse ecosystems in the CONUS during 2005. Twelve annual ET anomalies (2000-2011) depicted the spatial extent and severity of the commonly known drought years in the CONUS. More research is required to improve the representation of the predefined boundary conditions in complex terrain at small spatial scales. SSEBop model was found to be a promising approach to conduct water use studies in the CONUS, with a similar opportunity in other parts of the world. The approach can also be applied with other thermal sensors such as Landsat.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

The physical hydrogeology of ore deposits

Hydrothermal ore deposits represent a convergence of fluid flow, thermal energy, and solute flux that is hydrogeologically unusual. From the hydrogeologic perspective, hydrothermal ore deposition represents a complex coupled-flow problem—sufficiently complex that physically rigorous description of the coupled thermal (T), hydraulic (H), mechanical (M), and chemical (C) processes (THMC modeling) continues to challenge our computational ability. Though research into these coupled behaviors has found only a limited subset to be quantitatively tractable, it has yielded valuable insights into the workings of hydrothermal systems in a wide range of geologic environments including sedimentary, metamorphic, and magmatic. Examples of these insights include the quantification of likely driving mechanisms, rates and paths of fluid flow, ore-mineral precipitation mechanisms, longevity of hydrothermal systems, mechanisms by which hydrothermal fluids acquire their temperature and composition, and the controlling influence of permeability and other rock properties on hydrothermal fluid behavior. In this communication we review some of the fundamental theory needed to characterize the physical hydrogeology of hydrothermal systems and discuss how this theory has been applied in studies of Mississippi Valley-type, tabular uranium, porphyry, epithermal, and mid-ocean ridge ore-forming systems. A key limitation in the computational state-of-the-art is the inability to describe fluid flow and transport fully in the many ore systems that show evidence of repeated shear or tensional failure with associated dynamic variations in permeability. However, we discuss global-scale compilations that suggest some numerical constraints on both mean and dynamically enhanced crustal permeability. Principles of physical hydrogeology can be powerful tools for investigating hydrothermal ore formation and are becoming increasingly accessible with ongoing advances in modeling software.

Economic Geology

Raptor nesting near oil and gas development: an overview of key findings and implications for management based on four reports by HawkWatch International

The project was undertaken because of a paucity of information about the possible effects of OG operations and resource management on nesting raptors. BLM raptor management has included stipulations that restricted human activity near raptor nests during the raptor nesting season. The BLM and the Department of Energy (DOE), which provided financial support for the study, seek information that will contribute to enhancing OG extraction operations while providing environmental protection, including raptor conservation. This project used historical data from Utah and Wyoming. The Price, Utah study area, as of 2006, contained more than 1,100 wells, in a nearly uniform distribution at a density of one per quarter section (160-acre spacing). Some development occurred closer to existing nests because the nest sites had not been discovered or because the land is administered by the State of Utah, without these stipulations. The Rawlins, Wyoming study area included more than 4,200 OG wells in 2006. Compared to the Price study area, wells at Rawlins were less regularly distributed; reaching densities of one well per quarter section (160-acre spacing) in some areas, but less dense elsewhere. HWI compiled information from federal bureaus, state agencies, and industry, and determined how to evaluate the effectiveness of spatial and temporal buffer restrictions that have been applied within areas of OG extraction. HWI used the historical data to describe patterns of OG development relative to raptor nests, and to document changes in the distribution and breeding status of raptor nests relative to OG activities. HWI evaluated how these historical datasets were useful for quantifying the relationship between OG development and other human activities and nesting raptors. HWI assessed changes in Ferruginous Hawk (Buteo regalis) nesting success and productivity, and in use of artificial nest structures (ANSs), which had been erected to reduce the use by raptors of OG structures as nest substrates. Also, HWI studied Accipiter species’ use of pinyon– juniper vegetation communities in the Piceance Basin of Colorado, described basic vegetation and landscape characteristics of nests, and offered recommendations about surveying for accipiter hawks in pinyon–juniper landscapes. Please read the HWI reports for details.

BLM Technical Note

Fracture process zone in granite

In uniaxial compression tests performed on Aue granite cores (diameter 50 mm, length 100 mm), a steel loading plate was used to induce the formation of a discrete shear fracture. A zone of distributed microcracks surrounds the tip of the propagating fracture. This process zone is imaged by locating acoustic emission events using 12 piezoceramic sensors attached to the samples. Propagation velocity of the process zone is varied by using the rate of acoustic emissions to control the applied axial force. The resulting velocities range from 2 mm/s in displacement-controlled tests to 2 μm/s in tests controlled by acoustic emission rate. Wave velocities and amplitudes are monitored during fault formation. P waves transmitted through the approaching process zone show a drop in amplitude of 26 dB, and ultrasonic velocities are reduced by 10%. The width of the process zone is ∼9 times the grain diameter inferred from acoustic data but is only 2 times the grain size from optical crack inspection. The process zone of fast propagating fractures is wider than for slow ones. The density of microcracks and acoustic emissions increases approaching the main fracture. Shear displacement scales linearly with fracture length. Fault plane solutions from acoustic events show similar orientation of nodal planes on both sides of the shear fracture. The ratio of the process zone width to the fault length in Aue granite ranges from 0.01 to 0.1 inferred from crack data and acoustic emissions, respectively. The fracture surface energy is estimated from microstructure analysis to be ∼2 J. A lower bound estimate for the energy dissipated by acoustic events is 0.1 J.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Sex differences in contaminant concentrations of fish: a synthesis

Comparison of whole-fish polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and total mercury (Hg) concentrations in mature males with those in mature females may provide insights into sex differences in behavior, metabolism, and other physiological processes. In eight species of fish, we observed that males exceeded females in whole-fish PCB concentration by 17 to 43%. Based on results from hypothesis testing, we concluded that these sex differences were most likely primarily driven by a higher rate of energy expenditure, stemming from higher resting metabolic rate (or standard metabolic rate (SMR)) and higher swimming activity, in males compared with females. A higher rate of energy expenditure led to a higher rate of food consumption, which, in turn, resulted in a higher rate of PCB accumulation. For two fish species, the growth dilution effect also made a substantial contribution to the sex difference in PCB concentrations, although the higher energy expenditure rate for males was still the primary driver. Hg concentration data were available for five of the eight species. For four of these five species, the ratio of PCB concentration in males to PCB concentration in females was substantially greater than the ratio of Hg concentration in males to Hg concentration in females. In sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), a very primitive fish, the two ratios were nearly identical. The most plausible explanation for this pattern was that certain androgens, such as testosterone and 11-ketotestosterone, enhanced Hg-elimination rate in males. In contrast, long-term elimination of PCBs is negligible for both sexes. According to this explanation, males ingest Hg at a higher rate than females, but also eliminate Hg at a higher rate than females, in fish species other than sea lamprey. Male sea lamprey do not possess either of the above-specified androgens. These apparent sex differences in SMRs, activities, and Hg-elimination rates in teleost fishes may also apply, to some degree, to higher vertebrates including humans. Our synthesis findings will be useful in: (1) developing sex-specific bioenergetics models for fish, (2) developing sex-specific risk assessment models for exposure of humans and wildlife to contaminants, and (3) refining Hg mass balance models for fish and higher vertebrates.

Biology of Sex Differences

Surface soil temperature seasonal variation estimation in a forested area using combined satellite observations and in-situ measurements

Surface soil temperature is the soil temperature from the surface to 10 cm in depth. Surface soil temperature plays a significant role in agricultural drought monitoring, ecosystem energy transfer modeling, and global carbon cycle evaluation. Studies have been proposed to estimate surface soil temperature, but surface soil temperature monitoring within forested areas still poses a significant challenge. In this study, we proposed a surface soil temperature retrieval method using combined satellite observations and in-situ measurements for the Great Dismal Swamp (GDS). The GDS is a U.S. protected area managed and protected by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It is located along the boundary of Virginia and North Carolina, with maple gum, Atlantic white cedar, and pine pocosin as the main forest cover types. Ground-based surface soil temperature measurements were collected for these forest types from May 2015 to April 2017. Both the Land Remote Sensing Satellite (Landsat) Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) carry two thermal infrared (TIR) channels. The TIR channels with similar corresponding wavelengths were first fused using an improved fusing model to generate high resolution TIR measurements. Then the enterprise algorithm was applied to calculate land surface temperature (LST) from the fused TIR bands. An improved soil temperature retrieval method was applied to generate surface soil temperature based on LST and vegetation index (VI) within the study area for the three forest types. In-situ measurements were used to build the surface soil temperature retrieval method, and results were then validated. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were integrated separately as VIs in the model to monitor surface soil temperature. The R 2 for retrieved surface soil temperature through satellite observations was 0.76, and the RMSE was 1.96 ℃ ">℃ ℃ when NDVI was integrated in the model; the R 2 was 0.78, and the RMSE was 1.85 ℃ ">℃ ℃ when EVI was used.

North Carolina, Virginia

Coastal geoindicators of environmental change in the humid tropics

The primary geoindicators appropriate for monitoring environmental changes in the humid tropics are transitory surface water levels, shoreline position, wetlands distribution, coral reefs, landforms, and sediment sequence and composition. Lateral zonations and temporal successions of vegetation also can be used as geoindicators of riverine and shoreline changes. All of these coastal geoindicators are sensitive to regional tectonic processes and anthropogenic alterations and they typically reflect significant changes in coastal conditions such as fluvial processes, coastal energy, water quality, relative sea level, and sediment supply. Where humid tropical coasts coincide with active tectonic margins, indicators of seismic activity are critical to understanding Coastal changes associated with co-seismic subsidence or uplift, tsunamis, and liquefaction of coastal sediments. Coastal landforms and sedimentary deposits that record late Quaternary environmental changes include perched fluvial and marine terraces, delta-plain morphologies, crevassesplay deposits, peats and other paleosols, beach ridges, mud capes, and mud volcanoes. Although these features and deposits typically reflect environmental changes spanning more than 100 years, they are relevant to modern processes, management of coastal lands and resources, and prediction of future conditions. In some regions of the humid tropics, large coastal areas are unaffected by hurricanes or typhoons. Nevertheless, these tropical coasts are vulnerable to other non-storm processes, such as El Nin??o events, tsunamis, and monsoons that increase water levels, and cause widespread flooding and beach erosion. The environmental and political significance of coastal geoindicators increases when they are integrated and applied to issues of human safety and health such as hazards mapping, risk assessment, and dispersion of contaminated sediments. However, to be relevant, those socio-environmental applications demand accurate predictions of future trends and rates of change.

Environmental Geology

Overview of the limnology of crater lake

Crater Lake occupies the collapsed caldera of volcanic Mount Mazama in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon. It is the deepest lake (589 m) in the United States and the 7th deepest lake in the world. The water column mixes to a depth of about 200 m in winter and spring from wind energy and cooling. The deep lake is mixed in winter and early spring each year when relatively cold water near the surface sinks and exchanges positions with water in the deep basins of the lake. The lake becomes thermally stratified in summer and early fall. The metalimnion extends to a depth of about 100 m; thus most of the water column is a cold hypolimnion. Secchi disk clarity measurements typically are in the upper-20-m range to the low-30-m range in summer and early fall. Concentrations of nutrients are low, although conductivity is relatively high owing to the inflow of hydrothermal fluids. Total chlorophyll is low in concentration, but typically maximal at a depth of 120 m during periods of thermal stratification. Primary production also is low, with the maximum levels occurring between the depth of 40 and 80 m. Phytoplankton taxa are spatially segregated from each other within the water column to a depth of 200 m in summer and early fall. The same generalization applies to the Zooplankton taxa. Water level, clarity, concentrations of total chlorophyll, primary production, and abundances of zooplankton and introduced kokanee salmon exhibit long-term fluctuations. Based primarily on a recent 10-year study of the lake, the lake is considered to be pristine, except for the consequences of fish introductions. ?? 1996 by the Northwest Scientific Association. All rights reserved.

Northwest Science

Recent exploration and development of geothermal energy resources in the Escalante desert region, Southwestern Utah

Development of geothermal resources in southwest Utah's Sevier thermal area continued in the early 1990s with expansion of existing power-generation facilities. Completion of the Bud L. Bonnett geothermal power plant at the Cove Fort-Sulphurdale geothermal area brought total power generation capacity of the facility to 13.5 MWe (gross). At Cove Fort-Sulphurdate, recent declines in steam pressures within the shallow, vapor-dominated part of the resource prompted field developers to complete additional geothermal supply wells into the deeper, liquid-dominated portion of the resource. At Roosevelt Hot Springs near Milford, Intermountain Geothermal Company completed an additional supply well for Utah Power and Light Company's single-flash, Blundell plant. with the increased geothermal fluid supply from the new well, the Blundell plant now produces about 26 MWe (gross). The authors conducted several geothermal resource studies in undeveloped thermal areas in southwest Utah. Previous studies at Newcastle revealed a well-defined, self-potential minimum coincident with the intersection of major faults and the center of the heatflow anomaly. A detailed self-potential survey at Wood's Ranch, an area in northwest Iron County where thermal water was encountered in shallow wells, revealed a large (5,900 ?? 2,950 feet [1,800 ?? 900 m]) northeast-oriented self-potential anomaly which possibly results from the flow of shallow thermal fluid. Chemical geothermometry applied to Wood's Ranch water samples suggest reservoir temperatures between 230 and 248??F (110 and 120??C). At the Thermo Hot Springs geothermal area near Minersville, detailed self-potential surveys have also revealed an interesting 100 mV negative anomaly possibly related to the upward flow of hydrothermal fluid.

Bulletin. Geothermal Resources Council

Seismic environment of the Burro Flats site, Ventura County, California: a brief, limited literature review

A limited review of available literature suggests that the maximum horizontal ground acceleration at the Burro Flats site from earthquakes in the region could range from less than 0.1 to 0.49 g. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the nearby San Andreas fault could produce ground acceleration in the range 0.18 to 0.31 g, and an expectable larger earthquake on that fault could produce larger accelerations. Ground motion from possible smaller but closer earthquakes ranges up to 0.49 g for an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 on the adjacent "Burro Flats fault". Estimation of these accelerations is dependent on determining the geologic environment of the site, the appropriate earthquake magnitudes to be assigned significant faults in that environment, and the attenuation of shaking between the earthquake epicenters and the site. The site lies within a tectonically active region--the historically active San Andreas fault is only 34 miles to the northeast, and lesser faults showing evidence of late Quaternary displacement are located closer to the site. Evidence for youthfulness of these lesser faults varies, and except for the active Newport-Inglewood zone and the Santa Ynez fault, they qualify as possible but as yet-unproven active faults. All known faults with appropriate length to site-distance ratios that are reasonably classed as late Quaternary faults are discussed, and are included as potential earthquake generators. Earthquakes of appropriate magnitude to be assigned to each fault are determined by assuming rupture in one event of half the map length of the fault, and applying relations (determined by several authors) between earthquake magnitude and rupture length in historic events to determine magnitudes. These magnitudes are, for the purposes of this brief review, probably reasonable estimates of the capabilities of each fault, although earthquakes of larger magnitude are possible. Accelerations are then determined by assuming earthquakes of the above determined magnitude placed at the closest point to the site on the fault trace, and applying attenuation curves of three different authors. Considerable uncertainty is inherent in the rough estimates of seismic accelerations made herein, for they are dependent on a chain of judgments, each of which, in itself, is uncertain. Present knowledge of the geology of the region is incomplete, so that geometry and structural relations of the faults are in part uncertain, and much evidence bearing on the youth of the faults has yet to be gathered and evaluated. Estimation of earthquake magnitude is also uncertain, and even assuming that approximate magnitude is known rather than estimated from fault length, estimates of maximum ground acceleration may differ greatly depending on the authority used. Further consideration of ground acceleration at the site might refine the estimates made herein and resolve the apparent contradictions between the authorities cited. Attention to frequency and duration of strong shaking would also be appropriate. This study was undertaken at the request of A. J. Pressesky, Assistant Director for Nuclear Safety, Division of Reactor-Development and Technology, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, in March, 1969. It is based on a brief review of pertinent literature to which the authors had immediate access during the few weeks (April-May, 1969) available for report preparation. Because the report is limited both in scope and thoroughness, it must be considered no more than a first estimate of the tectonic and seismic environment of the Burro Flats site, and should not be considered sufficient, in itself, as a basis for design. The report is intended, however, to indicate the breadth of inquiry that is necessary in the consideration of ground acceleration at sites in California, and to indicate the incomplete status of geologic mapping and other geologic studies in the region. The report describes the tectonic environment of the Burro Flats site, discusses 10 pertinent faults individually, and presents possible earthquake magnitudes for those faults and resultant potential ground accelerations at the site.

California

Seismic precursors to volcanic explosions during the 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano: Chapter 2 in The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska, generated more than 3,500 earthquakes in a month-long time frame bracketing the most explosive period of activity. We examine two quantitative tools that, in retrospective analysis, were excellent indicators of imminent eruption. The first tool, referred to as the frequency index ( FI ), is based on a simple ratio of high- and low-frequency energy in an earthquake seismogram. It is a metric that allows us to quantify the differences between the canonical high-frequency, hybrid, and low-frequency volcanic earthquakes. FI values greater than -0.4 indicate earthquakes classically referred to as high-frequency or volcano-tectonic events. FI values less than -1.3 correspond to events usually referred to as low-frequency earthquakes. Because the FI is based on a ratio and not a spectral peak, hybrid earthquakes are successfully assigned FI values intermediate to these two classes. In this eruption, we find a remarkable correlation between events with FI less than -1.8 and explosive eruptions. The second tool we examine is based on repeating seismic waveforms identified through waveform cross-correlation. Although the vast majority of earthquakes during this eruption have unique waveforms, subsets of events exhibiting a high degree of similarity occur and are closely tied to explosive eruption events. Of the 13 large explosion events, seven were preceded by clusters of highly similar earthquakes. We apply the FI and correlation tools together to identify changes in high- and low-frequency earthquake occurrences and examine their relations to the precursory, explosive, and continuous phases of the eruption. We find that earthquakes that have low FI values and earthquakes exhibiting high degrees of similarity occur almost exclusively within hours of explosive eruptions and postulate that they occur as a result of the final ascent of magma in the volcanic edifice. Because neither of these methods requires analyst-reviewed earthquake locations, we believe that they have considerable potential as automated real-time volcano monitoring tools.

Alaska

Conceptual model of the uppermost principal aquifer systems in the Williston and Powder River structural basins, United States and Canada

The three uppermost principal aquifer systems of the Northern Great Plains—the glacial, lower Tertiary, and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems—are described in this report and provide water for irrigation, mining, public and domestic supply, livestock, and industrial uses. These aquifer systems primarily are present in two nationally important fossil-fuelproducing areas: the Williston and Powder River structural basins in the United States and Canada. The glacial aquifer system is contained within glacial deposits that overlie the lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems in the northeastern part of the Williston structural basin. Productive sand and gravel aquifers exist within this aquifer system. The Upper Cretaceous aquifer system is contained within bedrock lithostratigraphic units as deep as 2,850 and 8,500 feet below land surface in the Williston and Powder River structural basins, respectively. Petroleum extraction from much deeper formations, such as the Bakken Formation, is rapidly increasing because of recently improved hydraulic fracturing methods that require large volumes of relatively freshwater from shallow aquifers or surface water. Extraction of coalbed natural gas from within the lower Tertiary aquifer system requires removal of large volumes of groundwater to allow degasification. Recognizing the importance of understanding water resources in these energy-rich basins, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater Resources Program ( http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/gwrp/ ) began a groundwater study of the Williston and Powder River structural basins in 2011 to quantify this groundwater resource, the results of which are described in this report. The overall objective of this study was to characterize, quantify, and provide an improved conceptual understanding of the three uppermost and principal aquifer systems in energy-resource areas of the Northern Great Plains to assist in groundwater-resource management for multiple uses. The study area includes parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming in the United States and Manitoba and Saskatchewan in Canada. The glacial aquifer system is contained within glacial drift consisting primarily of till, with smaller amounts of glacial outwash sand and gravel deposits. The lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems are contained within several formations of the Tertiary and Cretaceous geologic systems, which are hydraulically separated from underlying aquifers by a basal confining unit. The lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems each were divided into three hydrogeologic units that correspond to one or more lithostratigraphic units. The period prior to 1960 is defined as the predevelopment period when little groundwater was extracted. From 1960 through 1990, numerous flowing wells were installed near the Yellowstone, Little Missouri and Knife Rivers, resulting in local groundwater declines. Recently developed technologies for the extraction of petroleum resources, which largely have been applied in the study area since about 2005, require millions of gallons of water for construction of each well, with additional water needed for long-term operation; therefore, the potential for an increase in groundwater extraction is high. In this study, groundwater recharge and discharge components were estimated for the period 1981–2005. Groundwater recharge primarily occurs from infiltration of rainfall and snowmelt (precipitation recharge) and infiltration of streams into the ground (stream infiltration). Total estimated recharge to the Williston and Powder River control volumes is 4,560 and 1,500 cubic feet per second, respectively. Estimated precipitation recharge is 26 and 15 percent of total recharge for the Williston and Powder River control volumes, respectively. Estimated stream infiltration is 71 and 80 percent of total recharge for the Williston and Powder River control volumes, respectively. Groundwater discharge primarily is to streams and springs and is estimated to be about 97 and 92 percent of total discharge for the Williston and Powder River control volumes, respectively. Most of the remaining discharge results from pumped and flowing wells. Groundwater flow in the Williston structural basin generally is from the west and southwest toward the east, where discharge to streams occurs. Locally, in the uppermost hydrogeologic units, groundwater generally is unconfined and flows from topographically high to low areas, where discharge to streams occurs. Groundwater flow in the Powder River structural basin generally is toward the north, with local variations, particularly in the upper Fort Union aquifer, where flow is toward streams.

Manitoba;Montana;North Dakota;Saskatchewan;South D

Actual evapotranspiration (water use) assessment of the Colorado River Basin at the Landsat resolution using the operational simplified surface energy balance model

Accurately estimating consumptive water use in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is important for assessing and managing limited water resources in the basin. Increasing water demand from various sectors may threaten long-term sustainability of the water supply in the arid southwestern United States. We have developed a first-ever basin-wide actual evapotranspiration (ET a ) map of the CRB at the Landsat scale for water use assessment at the field level. We used the operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model for estimating ET a using 328 cloud-free Landsat images acquired during 2010. Our results show that cropland had the highest ET a among all land cover classes except for water. Validation using eddy covariance measured ET a showed that the SSEBop model nicely captured the variability in annual ET a with an overall R 2 of 0.78 and a mean bias error of about 10%. Comparison with water balance-based ETa showed good agreement (R 2 = 0.85) at the sub-basin level. Though there was good correlation (R 2 = 0.79) between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based ETa (1 km spatial resolution) and Landsat-based ET a (30 m spatial resolution), the spatial distribution of MODIS-based ET a was not suitable for water use assessment at the field level. In contrast, Landsat-based ET a has good potential to be used at the field level for water management. With further validation using multiple years and sites, our methodology can be applied for regular production of ET a maps of larger areas such as the conterminous United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Simulating mechanisms for dispersal, production and stranding of small forage fish in temporary wetland habitats

Movement strategies of small forage fish (<8 cm total length) between temporary and permanent wetland habitats affect their overall population growth and biomass concentrations, i.e., availability to predators. These fish are often the key energy link between primary producers and top predators, such as wading birds, which require high concentrations of stranded fish in accessible depths. Expansion and contraction of seasonal wetlands induce a sequential alternation between rapid biomass growth and concentration, creating the conditions for local stranding of small fish as they move in response to varying water levels. To better understand how landscape topography, hydrology, and fish behavior interact to create high densities of stranded fish, we first simulated population dynamics of small fish, within a dynamic food web, with different traits for movement strategy and growth rate, across an artificial, spatially explicit, heterogeneous, two-dimensional marsh slough landscape, using hydrologic variability as the driver for movement. Model output showed that fish with the highest tendency to invade newly flooded marsh areas built up the largest populations over long time periods with stable hydrologic patterns. A higher probability to become stranded had negative effects on long-term population size, and offset the contribution of that species to stranded biomass. The model was next applied to the topography of a 10 km × 10 km area of Everglades landscape. The details of the topography were highly important in channeling fish movements and creating spatiotemporal patterns of fish movement and stranding. This output provides data that can be compared in the future with observed locations of fish biomass concentrations, or such surrogates as phosphorus ‘hotspots’ in the marsh.

Ecological Modelling