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USGS2023

Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to support regional climate adaptation

An online climate vulnerability assessment dashboard was developed in 2021 through collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to support regional climate adaptation efforts. The dashboard included 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions. Users could then adjust relative weights of each metric to generate vulnerability scores. The metrics included in the dashboard were identified by FWS for their programs but have broad relevance, making the dashboard useful to a wide range of stakeholders. For this project we had two primary goals: (1) update the online dashboard to better communicate the variability that is inherent in climate change projections, and (2) develop a use case example using the dashboard to collaboratively assess vulnerability of a resource of concern at a workshop with resource managers. For objective 2, we selected prairie-obligate butterflies (POBs), which are dependent on, and often restricted to, native prairie habitat. The extent of native prairie has been greatly reduced over the last two centuries resulting in a patchwork of isolated and often small tracts of land. For many POBs, declines and extirpations have been observed in recent decades. Although the causes are not always known, hypotheses include overuse of management tools (e.g., too frequent burning or overgrazing), lack of dispersal opportunities, or extreme weather events. With more extreme weather events anticipated in the future along with other changes in climate, it is important to better understand the vulnerability of POBs to design effective adaptation strategies. While research on extreme weather, climate change, and adaptation is ongoing for some prairie-obligate species, this workshop sought to take a broad perspective using POBs as the focal taxonomic group across eight U.S. States in the Midwest During the workshop we discussed weather and climate-related influences on butterfly communities and assessed climate change vulnerability using the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). We produced maps that quantify the regional vulnerability of POBs across 360 watersheds for two future emissions scenarios. The information developed during the workshop could help in regional planning for climate change adaptation and to identify avenues for research and collaboration for POBs in the Midwest.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2022

A progressive flow-routing model for rapid assessment of debris-flow inundation

Debris flows pose a significant hazard to communities in mountainous areas, and there is a continued need for methods to delineate hazard zones associated with debris-flow inundation. In certain situations, such as scenarios following wildfire, where there could be an abrupt increase in the likelihood and size of debris flows that necessitates a rapid hazard assessment, the computational demands of inundation models play a role in their utility. The inability to efficiently determine the downstream effects of anticipated debris-flow events remains a critical gap in our ability to understand, mitigate, and assess debris-flow hazards. To better understand the downstream effects of debris flows, we introduce a computationally efficient, reduced-complexity inundation model, which we refer to as the Progressive Debris-Flow routing and inundation model (ProDF). We calibrate ProDF against mapped inundation from five watersheds near Montecito, CA, that produced debris flows shortly after the 2017 Thomas Fire. ProDF reproduced 70% of mapped deposits across a 40 km 2 study area. While this study focuses on a series of post-wildfire debris flows, ProDF is not limited to simulating debris-flow inundation following wildfire and could be applied to any scenario where it is possible to estimate a debris-flow volume. However, given its ability to reproduce mapped debris-flow deposits downstream of the 2017 Thomas Fire burn scar, and the modest run time associated with a simulation over this 40 km 2 study area, results suggest ProDF may be particularly promising for post-wildfire hazard assessment applications.

Landslides↗

USGS2017

Quantifying geomorphic change at ephemeral stream restoration sites using a coupled-model approach

Rock-detention structures are used as restoration treatments to engineer ephemeral stream channels of southeast Arizona, USA, to reduce streamflow velocity, limit erosion, retain sediment, and promote surface-water infiltration. Structures are intended to aggrade incised stream channels, yet little quantified evidence of efficacy is available. The goal of this 3-year study was to characterize the geomorphic impacts of rock-detention structures used as a restoration strategy and develop a methodology to predict the associated changes. We studied reaches of two ephemeral streams with different watershed management histories: one where thousands of loose-rock check dams were installed 30 years prior to our study, and one with structures constructed at the beginning of our study. The methods used included runoff, sediment transport, and geomorphic modelling and repeat terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) surveys to map landscape change. Where discharge data were not available, event-based runoff was estimated using KINEROS2, a one-dimensional kinematic-wave runoff and erosion model. Discharge measurements and estimates were used as input to a two-dimensional unsteady flow-and-sedimentation model (Nays2DH) that combined a gridded flow, transport, and bed and bank simulation with geomorphic change. Through comparison of consecutive DEMs, the potential to substitute uncalibrated models to analyze stream restoration is introduced. We demonstrate a new approach to assess hydraulics and associated patterns of aggradation and degradation resulting from the construction of check-dams and other transverse structures. Notably, we find that stream restoration using rock-detention structures is effective across vastly different timescales.

Arizona↗

USGS2013

Simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood along the Little Missouri River near Langley, Arkansas, using a hydrologic model coupled to a hydraulic model

A substantial flood event occurred on June 11, 2010, causing the Little Missouri River to flow over much of the adjacent land area, resulting in catastrophic damages. Twenty fatalities occurred and numerous automobiles, cabins, and recreational vehicles were destroyed within the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Forest Service Albert Pike Recreation Area, at a dispersed campsite area in the surrounding Ouachita National Forest lands, and at a nearby privately owned camp. The Little Missouri River streamgage near Langley, Arkansas, reached a record streamflow of 70,800 cubic feet per second and a stage (water level) of 23.5 feet at 5:30 a.m., with a 10-foot rise occurring in slightly more than 1 hour. To better understand the flood event on June 11, 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, developed a precipitation-runoff hydrologic model, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), coupled with a one-dimensional unsteady-state hydraulic model, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), to simulate precipitation runoff and streamflow characteristics along the Little Missouri River and at various tributaries within the 68-square mile watershed upstream from the Langley streamgage. Within the proximity of two campgrounds, the Little Missouri River just downstream from the confluence of Brier Creek had a peak simulated streamflow of 49,300 cubic feet per second at 4:08 a.m.; the simulated streamflow stayed within 500 cubic feet per second of the peak for nearly 15 minutes. The simulated water surface increased an average of 0.5 feet every 5 minutes for a total of 2 hours, with a maximum rate of rise of 2 feet in 15 minutes. The Little Missouri River just downstream from the confluence of Brier Creek had a peak simulated water-surface elevation of 935.0 feet, a maximum water depth of 22.2 feet, and a maximum stream channel velocity of 12.6 feet per second at 4:15 a.m. The results from the precipitation-runoff hydrologic model, the one-dimensional unsteady-state hydraulic model, and a separate two-dimensional model developed as part of a coincident study, each complement the other in terms of streamflow timing, water-surface elevations, and velocities propagated by the June 11, 2010, flood event. The simulated grids for water depth and stream velocity from each model were directly compared by subtracting the one-dimensional hydraulic model grid from the two-dimensional model grid. The absolute mean difference for the simulated water depth was 0.9 foot. Additionally, the absolute mean difference for the simulated stream velocity was 1.9 feet per second.

Arkansas↗

USGS2008

Suspended sediment transport in the freshwater reach of the Hudson river estuary in eastern New York

Deposition of Hudson River sediment into New York Harbor interferes with navigation lanes and requires continuous dredging. Sediment dynamics at the Hudson estuary turbidity maximum (ETM) have received considerable study, but delivery of sediment to the ETM through the freshwater reach of the estuary has received relatively little attention and few direct measurements. An acoustic Doppler current profiler was positioned at the approximate limit of continuous freshwater to develop a 4-year time series of water velocity, discharge, suspended sediment concentration, and suspended sediment discharge. This data set was compared with suspended sediment discharge data collected during the same period at two sites just above the Hudson head-of-tide (the Federal Dam at Troy) that together represent the single largest source of sediment entering the estuary. The mean annual suspended sediment-discharge from the freshwater reach of the estuary was 737,000 metric tons. Unexpectedly, the total suspended sediment discharge at the study site in November and December slightly exceeded that observed during March and April, the months during which rain and snowmelt typically result in the largest sediment discharge to the estuary. Suspended sediment discharge at the study site exceeded that from the Federal Dam, even though the intervening reach appears to store significant amounts of sediment, suggesting that 30-40% of sediment discharge observed at the study site is derived from tributaries to the estuary between the Federal Dam and study site. A simple model of sediment entering and passing through the freshwater reach on a timescale of weeks appears reasonable during normal hydrologic conditions in adjoining watersheds; however, this simple model may dramatically overestimate sediment delivery during extreme tributary high flows, especially those at the end of, or after, the "flushing season" (October through April). Previous estimates of annual or seasonal sediment delivery from tributaries and the Federal Dam to the ETM and harbor may be high for those years with extreme tributary high-flow events. ?? 2008 Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2012

Water chemistry of surface waters affected by the Fourmile Canyon wildfire, Colorado, 2010-2011

In September 2010, the Fourmile Canyon fire burned about 23 percent of the Fourmile Creek watershed in Boulder County, Colo. Water-quality sampling of Fourmile Creek began within a month after the wildfire to assess its effects on surface-water chemistry. Water samples were collected from five sites along Fourmile Creek (above, within, and below the burned area) monthly during base flow, twice weekly during snowmelt runoff, and at higher frequencies during storm events. Stream discharge was also monitored. Water-quality samples were collected less frequently from an additional 6 sites on Fourmile Creek, from 11 tributaries or other inputs, and from 3 sites along Boulder Creek. The pH, electrical conductivity, temperature, specific ultraviolet absorbance, total suspended solids, and concentrations (dissolved and total) of major cations (calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium), anions (chloride, sulfate, alkalinity, fluoride, and bromide), nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and phosphorus), trace metals (aluminum, arsenic, boron, barium, beryllium, cadmium, cobalt, chromium, copper, iron, mercury, lithium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, lead, rubidium, antimony, selenium, strontium, vanadium, and zinc), and dissolved organic carbon are here reported for 436 samples collected during 2010 and 2011.

Colorado↗

USGS2000

Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

The Fountain Creek watershed, located in and along the eastern slope of the Front Range section of the southern Rocky Mountains, drains approximately 930 square miles of parts of Teller, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties in eastern Colorado. Streamflow in the watershed is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff and storm runoff during the summer monsoon season. Flooding during the 1990?s has resulted in increased streambank erosion. Property loss and damage associated with flooding and bank erosion has cost area residents, businesses, utilities, municipalities, and State and Federal agencies millions of dollars. Precipitation (4 stations) and streamflow (6 stations) data, aerial photographs, and channel reconnaissance were used to evaluate trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in channel morphology. Trends were evaluated for pre-1977, post-1976, and period-of-record time periods. Analysis revealed the lack of trend in total annual and seasonal precipitation during the pre-1977 time period. In general, the analysis also revealed the lack of trend in seasonal precipitation for all except the spring season during the post-1976 time period. Trend analysis revealed a significant upward trend in long-term (period of record) total annual and spring precipitation data, apparently due to a change in total annual precipitation throughout the Fountain Creek watershed. During the pre-1977 time period, precipitation was generally below average; during the post- 1976 time period, total annual precipitation was generally above average. During the post- 1976 time period, an upward trend in total annual and spring precipitation was indicated at two stations. Because two of four stations evaluated had upward trends for the post-1976 period and storms that produce the most precipitation are isolated convection storms, it is plausible that other parts of the watershed had upward precipitation trends that could affect trends in streamflow. Also, because of the isolated nature of convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Inbuilt age, residence time, and inherited age from radiocarbon dates of modern fires and late Holocene deposits, Western Transverse Ranges, California

Radiocarbon dates of sedimentary deposits include the elapsed time between formation of the organic material and deposition at the sample site, known as the inherited age. Long inherited ages reduce the accuracy of estimates of the timing of depositional events used to infer paleoclimate change, fire histories, and paleoearthquake timing. An inherited age distribution combines the inbuilt age distribution, which reflects the age composition of the vegetation of the source area, and the residence time distribution, which includes transport and interim storage prior to final deposition. Differentiating residence time and inbuilt age is difficult given typical dispersion of ages in a sedimentary deposit. We address this problem by comparing charcoal dates from two modern fires in southern California, the 2020 Bobcat and the 2013 Grand Fire, with a well-dated late Holocene deposit in the Pallett Creek watershed. The modern fire deposits have negligible transport time (<1 year), and 56 radiocarbon dates indicate a median age of 25 years (300-year 95% range) provides an estimate of inbuilt age for the San Gabriel Mountains. The inherited age calculated from the paleodeposits is older with a median age of ~90 years and has a positive skew (850-year 95% range). A modeled inherited age, calculated by applying the pre-bomb radiocarbon calibration curve to the modern fire age distribution, is shorter than the paleodeposit inherited age by only 21 years, indicating samples with long residence times are not common in the deposit. Comparison of inherited ages calculated from organic-rich and clastic paleodeposits indicate a slight facies dependence that may reflect longer residence time in clastic deposits. The results provide insight into the transport of charcoal through the landscape are useful for refining estimates of past environmental and tectonic events.

California↗

USGS2023

Paleohydrologic history of pluvial lake San Agustin, New Mexico: Tracking changing effective moisture in southwest North America through the last glacial transition

Paleoclimate records across the Intermountain West region of North America show significant regional variation in timing and magnitude of wet conditions that accompanied the last glacial-interglacial transition. To understand the climate controls on paleohydrologic change, well-dated records are needed across the region. The Plains of San Agustin (New Mexico, USA) is a closed-basin watershed of the American Southwest influenced by both winter westerly and summer North American Monsoon precipitation. The flat valley floors of the Plains contain lake and groundwater discharge deposits that record multiple periods of past wet climate. We present a record of hydroclimate for the past 26,000 years based on radiocarbon, U–Th series, and OSL dating of these deposits and stratigraphic correlation across the three sub-basins of the lake system. We find that two major lake oscillations occurred, coincident with the global Last Glacial Maximum (∼23–18 ka) and with Heinrich Stadial 1 (∼17–14 ka). The LGM lake cycle created a deep lake in the lowermost sub-basin, fed by marsh/lake overflow in the upper sub-basins. The Heinrich Stadial 1 wet interval attained the highest recorded lake level between ∼17.0 and 15.3 ka, merging the lower two sub-basins into one lake. Both lake cycles agree well in timing and magnitude with other lake-based records from the southwestern U.S., supporting previous interpretations that a south-shifted cool season storm track brought a dipole-like pattern of enhanced moisture to the southwest at the expense of drier conditions in the northwest during the LGM and deglaciation. A transition from lake to groundwater discharge conditions followed during the Bølling-Allerød (14.7–12.9 ka) across the study area. Wet meadows prevailed in the lower sub-basin during the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.7 ka), with marsh and open lake conditions in the upper and middle sub-basins, respectively. During the early Holocene, discrete wet intervals are recorded by ages for wet meadow deposits in all sub-basins with centennial-millennial frequency at 9.9, 8.8, 8.2 ka. These events agree well with other Intermountain West records showing wetter-than-present conditions prior to 8 ka. Two additional wet periods, centered at 6.8 and 5.4 ka, occurred during the driest known interval of the middle Holocene, and likely were partly supported in the Plains of San Agustin by summer moisture associated with the peak strength of the North American Monsoon. Our record highlights that both winter and summer moisture support water resources in New Mexico watersheds.

New Mexico↗

USGS2012

High-resolution digital elevation dataset for Crater Lake National Park and vicinity, Oregon, based on LiDAR survey of August-September 2010 and bathymetric survey of July 2000

Crater Lake partially fills the caldera that formed approximately 7,700 years ago during the eruption of a 12,000-foot volcano known as Mount Mazama. The caldera-forming or climactic eruption of Mount Mazama devastated the surrounding landscape, left a thick deposit of pumice and ash in adjacent valleys, and spread a blanket of volcanic ash as far away as southern Canada. Because the Crater Lake region is potentially volcanically active, knowledge of past events is important to understanding hazards from future eruptions. Similarly, because the area is seismically active, documenting and evaluating geologic faults is critical to assessing hazards from earthquakes. As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey was awarded funding for high-precision airborne LiDAR ( Li ght D etection A nd R anging) data collection at several volcanoes in the Cascade Range through the Oregon LiDAR Consortium, administered by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI). The Oregon LiDAR Consortium contracted with Watershed Sciences, Inc., to conduct the data collection surveys. Collaborating agencies participating with the Oregon LiDAR Consortium for data collection in the Crater Lake region include Crater Lake National Park (National Park Service) and the Federal Highway Administration. In the immediate vicinity of Crater Lake National Park, 798 square kilometers of LiDAR data were collected, providing a digital elevation dataset of the ground surface beneath forest cover with an average resolution of 1.6 laser returns/m 2 and both vertical and horizontal accuracies of ±5 cm. The LiDAR data were mosaicked in this report with bathymetry of the lake floor of Crater Lake, collected in 2000 using high-resolution multibeam sonar in a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey, Crater Lake National Park, and the Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping at the University of New Hampshire. The bathymetric survey collected 16 million soundings with a spatial resolution of 2 meters using an EM1002 system owned and operated by C&C Technologies, Inc. The combined LiDAR and bathymetric dataset has a cell size of 1 meter and will contribute to understanding past volcanic events and their deposits, recognizing of faults and volcanic landforms, and quantifying landscape modification during and after the next volcanic eruption at Crater Lake.

Oregon↗

USGS2023

Contaminant exposure and transport from three potential reuse waters within a single watershed

Global demand for safe and sustainable water supplies necessitates a better understanding of contaminant exposures in potential reuse waters. In this study, we compared exposures and load contributions to surface water from the discharge of three reuse waters (wastewater effluent, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff). Results document substantial and varying organic-chemical contribution to surface water from effluent discharges (e.g., disinfection byproducts [DBP], prescription pharmaceuticals, industrial/household chemicals), urban stormwater (e.g., polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides, nonprescription pharmaceuticals), and agricultural runoff (e.g., pesticides). Excluding DBPs, episodic storm-event organic concentrations and loads from urban stormwater were comparable to and often exceeded those of daily wastewater-effluent discharges. We also assessed if wastewater-effluent irrigation to corn resulted in measurable effects on organic-chemical concentrations in rain-induced agricultural runoff and harvested feedstock. Overall, the target-organic load of 491 g from wastewater-effluent irrigation to the study corn field during the 2019 growing season did not produce substantial dissolved organic-contaminant contributions in subsequent rain-induced runoff events. Out of the 140 detected organics in source wastewater-effluent irrigation, only imidacloprid and estrone had concentrations that resulted in observable differences between rain-induced agricultural runoff from the effluent-irrigated and nonirrigated corn fields. Analyses of pharmaceuticals and per-/polyfluoroalkyl substances in at-harvest corn-plant samples detected two prescription antibiotics, norfloxacin and ciprofloxacin, at concentrations of 36 and 70 ng/g, respectively, in effluent-irrigated corn-plant samples; no contaminants were detected in noneffluent irrigated corn-plant samples.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2001

Debris-flow generation from recently burned watersheds

Evaluation of the erosional response of 95 recently burned drainage basins in Colorado, New Mexico and southern California to storm rainfall provides information on the conditions that result in fire-related debris flows. Debris flows were produced from only 37 of 95 (~40 percent) basins examined; the remaining basins produced either sediment-laden streamflow or no discernable response. Debris flows were thus not the prevalent response of the burned basins. The debris flows that did occur were most frequently the initial response to significant rainfall events. Although some hillslopes continued to erode and supply material to channels in response to subsequent rainfall events, debris flows were produced from only one burned basin following the initial erosive event. Within individual basins, debris flows initiated through both runoff and infiltration-triggered processes. The fact that not all burned basins produced debris flows suggests that specific geologic and geomorphic conditions may control the generation of fire-related debris flows. The factors that best distinguish between debris-flow producing drainages and those that produced sediment-laden streamflow are drainage-basin morphology and lithology, and the presence or absence of water-repellent soils. Basins underlain by sedimentary rocks were most likely to produce debris flows that contain large material, and sand- and gravel-dominated flows were generated primarily from terrain underlain by decomposed granite. Basin-area and relief thresholds define the morphologic conditions under which both types of debris flows occur. Debris flows containing large material are more likely to be produced from basins without water-repellent soils than from basins with water repellency. The occurrence of sand-and gravel-dominated debris flows depends on the presence of water-repellent soils.

California↗

USGS2012

Estimation of natural historical flows for the Manitowish River near Manitowish Waters, Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is charged with oversight of dam operations throughout Wisconsin and is considering modifications to the operating orders for the Rest Lake Dam in Vilas County, Wisconsin. State law requires that the operation orders be tied to natural low flows at the dam. Because the presence of the dam confounds measurement of natural flows, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, installed streamflow-gaging stations and developed two statistical methods to improve estimates of natural flows at the Rest Lake Dam. Two independent methods were used to estimate daily natural flow for the Manitowish River approximately 1 mile downstream of the Rest Lake Dam. The first method was an adjusted drainage-area ratio method, which used a regression analysis that related measured water yield (flow divided by watershed area) from short-term (2009–11) gaging stations upstream of the Manitowish Chain of Lakes to the water yield from two nearby long-term gaging stations in order to extend the flow record (1991–2011). In this approach, the computed flows into the Chain of Lakes at the upstream gaging stations were multiplied by a coefficient to account for the monthly hydrologic contributions (precipitation, evaporation, groundwater, and runoff) associated with the additional watershed area between the upstream gaging stations and the dam at the outlet of the Chain of Lakes (Rest Lake Dam). The second method used to estimate daily natural flow at the Rest Lake Dam was a water-budget approach, which used lake stage and dam outflow data provided by the dam operator. A water-budget model was constructed and then calibrated with an automated parameter-estimation program by matching simulated flow-duration statistics with measured flow-duration statistics at the upstream gaging stations. After calibration of the water-budget model, the model was used to compute natural flow at the dam from 1973 to 2011. Daily natural flows at the dam, as computed by the adjusted drainage-area ratio method and the water-budget method, were used to compute monthly flow-duration values for the period of historical data available for each method. Monthly flow-durations provide a means for evaluating the frequency and range in flows that have been observed for each month over the course of many years. Both methods described the pattern and timing of measured high-flow and low-flow events at the upstream gaging stations. The adjusted drainage-area ratio method generally had smaller residual errors across the full range of observed flows and had smaller monthly biases than the water-budget method. Although it is not possible to evaluate which method may be more "correct" for estimating monthly natural flows at the dam, comparisons between the results of each method indicate that the adjusted drainage-area ratio method may be susceptible to biases at high flows due to isolated storms outside of the Manitowish River watershed. Conversely, it appears that the water-budget method may be susceptible to biases at low flows because of its sensitivity to the accuracy of reported lake stage and outflows, as well as effects of upstream diversions that could not be fully compensated for with this method. Results from both methods are useful for understanding the natural flow patterns at the dam. Flows for both methods have similar patterns, with high median flows in spring and low median flows in late summer. Similarly, the range from monthly high-flow durations to low-flow durations increases during spring, decreases during summer, and increases again during fall. These seasonal patterns illustrate a challenge with interpreting a single value of natural low flow. That is, a natural low flow computed for September is not representative of a natural low flow in April. Moreover, alteration of natural flows caused by storing water in the Chain of Lakes during spring and releasing it in fall causes a change in the timing of high and low flows compared with natural conditions. That is, the lowest reported dam outflows occurred in spring and highest reported outflows occurred in fall, which is opposite the natural patterns.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

First documentation of grass carp spawning in Lake Erie’s Central Basin

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) are non-indigenous to North America having been translocated to the United States in the 1960s as a potential non-chemical solution for nuisance aquatic vegetation. Reproductively viable grass carp now exist in many watersheds in the United States. In the Great Lakes basin, grass carp were first discovered in the 1980s with direct confirmation of successful reproduction in 2015 via collection of fertilized grass carp eggs in the Sandusky River. Early life stage monitoring also confirmed reproduction in the Maumee River in 2017. During 2018–2021, no new spawning tributaries were discovered (18 total sampling events in five Great Lakes tributaries). In 2022, fourteen eggs with characteristics similar to grass carp were identified from the Huron River which is a tributary to Lake Erie’s Central Basin. Eggs were identified to species via DNA sequencing and were determined to be grass carp eggs. The confirmation of spawning in the Huron River represents a third spawning tributary in the Lake Erie basin and expands eastward the geographic extent of known grass carp spawning locations. Presently, the ability of the Huron River to support hatching and survival of larval grass carp is unknown. Discovery of the Huron River as a grass carp spawning tributary identifies the value of continued surveillance in Great Lakes tributaries for early life stages and conducting scientific inquiries evaluating the consistency of tributary use and survival of early life stages.

Ohio↗

USGS2026

Investigation of drivers and sources of potential harmful algal blooms in Lake Anna, Virginia, 2023-24

Algal blooms in freshwater reservoirs are an increasing concern because of the risk to aquatic ecosystem health, recreational use, and water quality. Among the taxa that comprise an algal bloom, cyanobacteria are of particular concern due to the potential to produce toxic compounds which can cause acute and chronic illness in humans if ingested through contaminated water or shellfish. When toxins are above a toxin-specific threshold in the water column, the Commonwealth of Virginia categorizes the bloom as a harmful algal bloom (HAB), distinguishing it from an algal bloom without toxins present. Toxins are of particular concern in bodies of water which serve as major recreational areas, such as Lake Anna in central Virginia. Lake Anna is a 27 km-long and 47 km2 reservoir in central Virginia. Since the Commonwealth of Virginia revised the HAB monitoring framework in 2018, algal bloom advisories for potentially toxigenic blooms have been issued in the western, riverine zone of the reservoir. There were detections of microcystin and anatoxin production but no detections of cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxin production in Lake Anna; however, toxin concentrations were low, at values less than 0.65 µg/L. In 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a 19-month intensive and extensive study of western Lake Anna and its tributaries (North Anna River and Pamunkey Creek) to (1) characterize the algal community, biomass, and toxin production; (2) identify potential drivers leading to algal bloom initiation, persistence, and decline; and (3) assess the primary sources of the drivers contributing to algal blooms. Continuous and discrete monitoring of water quality within the lake, watershed inputs, meteorological conditions, and algal communities were monitored. Multiple modeling scenarios identified that the formation and persistence of algal blooms in Lake Anna are driven by interactions among chemical, macro- and micronutrient, and physical factors. Key drivers include total nitrogen, total phosphorus, water temperature, suspended sediment concentration, wind speed, copper, iron, molybdenum, nickel, sodium, and alkalinity. During this study, winter stormflow events delivered the highest loading of macro- and micronutrients from the tributaries to the lake. The lake is a sink for these nutrients in the water column or in the lake-bed sediments. During high-occupancy and recreation periods on the lake in the summer months, boating activity can promote internal loading by the resuspension of the lake-bed sediments, thereby increasing the nutrient availability for algal uptake. Thermal stratification and hypoxic conditions were observed, which can contribute to the passive release of nutrients into the water column, further facilitating algal bloom proliferation. These processes may create a positive feedback loop that supports the formation, persistence, and annual recurrence of algal blooms in the western region of Lake Anna. Continued water-quality monitoring of early warning indicators may improve the detection and forecasting of algal growth in the lake and help managers proactively manage water quality and algal growth.

EarthArXiv↗

USGS1996

January 1996 floods deliver large loads of nutrients and sediment to the Chesapeake Bay

The Blizzard of 1996 struck the Mid-Atlantic region in January, depositing a record amount of snowfall. Within two weeks of the paralyzing blizzard, warm and extremely humid air entered the region, followed by a major rainstorm. The combination of warm, humid air and heavy rainfall melted the snow at an unprecedented rate. In just over one day, two to five inches of water from snowmelt combined with two to five inches of rainfall, resulting in widespread major flooding throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The January 1996 storm caused severe flooding on many Chesapeake Bay tributaries. As a result of the flooding, large amounts of nutrients and sediment entered the Bay. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitored the amount of streamflow, nutrients, and sediment that entered the Chesapeake Bay as a result of the flood. This information is used to evaluate the effect of hydrologic events of this magnitude on the Bay's health and living resources.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2011

Water-quality conditions near the confluence of the Snake and Boise Rivers, Canyon County, Idaho

Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) have been established under authority of the Federal Clean Water Act for the Snake River-Hells Canyon reach, on the border of Idaho and Oregon, to improve water quality and preserve beneficial uses such as public consumption, recreation, and aquatic habitat. The TMDL sets targets for seasonal average and annual maximum concentrations of chlorophyll- a at 14 and 30 micrograms per liter, respectively. To attain these conditions, the maximum total phosphorus concentration at the mouth of the Boise River in Idaho, a tributary to the Snake River, has been set at 0.07 milligrams per liter. However, interactions among chlorophyll- a , nutrients, and other key water-quality parameters that may affect beneficial uses in the Snake and Boise Rivers are unknown. In addition, contributions of nutrients and chlorophyll- a loads from the Boise River to the Snake River have not been fully characterized. To evaluate seasonal trends and relations among nutrients and other water-quality parameters in the Boise and Snake Rivers, a comprehensive monitoring program was conducted near their confluence in water years (WY) 2009 and 2010. The study also provided information on the relative contribution of nutrient and sediment loads from the Boise River to the Snake River, which has an effect on water-quality conditions in downstream reservoirs. State and site-specific water-quality standards, in addition to those that relate to the Snake River-Hells Canyon TMDL, have been established to protect beneficial uses in both rivers. Measured water-quality conditions in WY2009 and WY2010 exceeded these targets at one or more sites for the following constituents: water temperature, total phosphorus concentrations, total phosphorus loads, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH, and chlorophyll- a concentrations (WY2009 only). All measured total phosphorus concentrations in the Boise River near Parma exceeded the seasonal target of 0.07 milligram per liter. Data collected during the study show seasonal differences in all measured parameters. In particular, surprisingly high concentrations of chlorophyll- a were measured at all three main study sites in winter and early spring, likely due to changes in algal populations. Discharge conditions and dissolved orthophosphorus concentrations are key drivers for chlorophyll- a on a seasonal and annual basis on the Snake River. Discharge conditions and upstream periphyton growth are most likely the key drivers for chlorophyll- a in the Boise River. Phytoplankton growth is not limited or driven by nutrient availability in the Boise River. Lower discharges and minimal substrate disturbance in WY2010 in comparison with WY2009 may have caused prolonged and increased periphyton and macrophyte growth and a reduced amount of sloughed algae in suspension in the summer of WY2010. Chlorophyll- a measured in samples commonly is used as an indicator of sestonic algae biomass, but chlorophyll- a concentrations and fluorescence may not be the most appropriate surrogates for algae growth, eutrophication, and associated effects on beneficial uses. Assessment of the effects of algae growth on beneficial uses should evaluate not only sestonic algae, but also benthic algae and macrophytes. Alternatively, continuous monitoring of dissolved oxygen detects the influence of aquatic plant respiration for all types of algae and macrophytes and is likely a more direct measure of effects on beneficial uses such as aquatic habitat. Most measured water-quality parameters in the Snake River were statistically different upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Boise River. Higher concentrations and loads were measured at the downstream site (Snake River at Nyssa) than the upstream site (Snake River near Adrian) for total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphorus, total nitrogen, dissolved nitrite and nitrate, suspended sediment, and turbidity. Higher dissolved oxygen concentrations and pH were measured at the upstream site (Snake River near Adrian) than the downstream site (Snake River at Nyssa). Contributions from the Boise River measured at Parma do not constitute all of the increase in nutrient and sediment loads in the Snake River between the upstream and downstream sites. Surrogate models were developed using a combination of continuously monitored variables to estimate concentrations of nutrients and suspended sediment when samples were not possible. The surrogate models explained from 66 to 95 percent of the variability in nutrient and suspended sediment concentrations, depending on the site and model. Although the surrogate models could not always represent event-based changes in modeled parameters, they generally were successful in representing seasonal and annual patterns. Over a longer period, the surrogate models could be a useful tool for measuring compliance with state and site-specific water-quality standards and TMDL targets, for representing daily and seasonal variability in constituents, and for assessing effects of phosphorus reduction measures within the watershed.

Idaho↗

USGS2013

Late Quaternary stream piracy and strath terrace formation along the Belle Fourche and lower Cheyenne Rivers, South Dakota and Wyoming

Stream piracy substantially affected the geomorphic evolution of the Missouri River watershed and drainages within, including the Little Missouri, Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, Bad, and White Rivers. The ancestral Cheyenne River eroded headward in an annular pattern around the eastern and southern Black Hills and pirated the headwaters of the ancestral Bad and White Rivers after ~ 660 ka. The headwaters of the ancestral Little Missouri River were pirated by the ancestral Belle Fourche River, a tributary to the Cheyenne River that currently drains much of the northern Black Hills. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating techniques were used to estimate the timing of this piracy event at ~ 22–21 ka. The geomorphic evolution of the Cheyenne and Belle Fourche Rivers is also expressed by regionally recognized strath terraces that include (from oldest to youngest) the Sturgis, Bear Butte, and Farmingdale terraces. Radiocarbon and OSL dates from fluvial deposits on these terraces indicate incision to the level of the Bear Butte terrace by ~ 63 ka, incision to the level of the Farmingdale terrace at ~ 40 ka, and incision to the level of the modern channel after ~ 12–9 ka. Similar dates of terrace incision have been reported for the Laramie and Wind River Ranges. Hypothesized causes of incision are the onset of colder climate during the middle Wisconsinan and the transition to the full-glacial climate of the late-Wisconsinan/Pinedale glaciation. Incision during the Holocene of the lower Cheyenne River is as much as ~ 80 m and is 3 to 4 times the magnitude of incision at ~ 63 ka and ~ 40 ka. The magnitude of incision during the Holocene might be due to a combined effect of three geomorphic processes acting in concert: glacial isostatic rebound in lower reaches (~ 40 m), a change from glacial to interglacial climate, and adjustments to increased watershed area resulting from piracy of the ancestral headwaters of the Little Missouri River.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗